Who’s the Best Point Guard? Part II – The Results
by Jed Tai
Part I | Part II
Who’s the best point guard in America?
Last week, we explored the method based on statistics. This week, we display the results.
Before we make the big announcement, we need to note that several changes were made to the player roster before the stats were tabulated. With schools like Utah, Tennessee, and Dayton entering the national scene, their point guards were included. And thanks to the suggestions of several readers (including fellow Hoopville writer, Phil Kasiecki) additions such as Delaware’s Mike Slattery, Providence’s Donnie McGrath, and Texas A&M’s Bernard King also made the list, making the final number of players included equal to 70 – the most we have ever had in our study.
So, without further ado – here are this year’s results:
P40 FG% 3P% FT% A40 ATO S40 RATING
1. Green, St. Bonaventure 88 70 82 95 85 62 87 82.352
2. Banks, UNLV 85 94 74 79 64 43 100 74.205
3. Ford, Texas 68 73 60 85 85 59 72 73.588
4. Ridnour, Oregon 86 81 76 91 72 53 60 72.764
5. Thomas, Notre Dame 78 72 78 93 77 53 59 72.205
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6. Miles, Kansas 43 71 52 89 92 62 81 72.029
7. Blake, Maryland 56 78 88 82 84 63 56 70.735
8. Gaines, Louisville 86 85 79 86 64 58 57 70.676
9. King, Texas A&M 85 84 75 79 74 57 44 70.441
10. Bailey, UIC 50 84 62 70 100 72 35 70.205
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11. Kohn, South Florida 43 73 91 75 77 81 68 69.676
12. Stepp, Gonzaga 76 80 92 85 68 54 54 69.147
13. Nelson, St. Joseph's 82 79 70 78 60 48 79 68.852
14. Sparks, W. Kentucky 58 71 75 74 73 57 79 68.529
15. Bell, Boston College 97 80 85 91 43 51 70 68.147
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16. Hatten, St. John's 100 80 59 78 45 35 89 67.117
17. Hinrich, Kansas 84 92 99 73 44 61 65 66.441
18. Bailey, Loyola (IL) 85 64 57 87 63 46 58 66.117
19. Duhon, Duke 38 63 52 66 84 74 67 65.852
20. McNamara, Syracuse 61 73 75 100 55 60 72 65.676
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21. Dobie, Long Island 78 76 57 82 74 40 45 65.382
22. Slattery, Delaware 50 74 75 81 69 68 58 65.029
23. Bright, LSU 49 83 79 80 61 64 74 64.911
24. Diener, Marquette 49 69 68 94 64 84 48 64.676
25. Barrett, Seton Hall 75 84 85 87 60 50 44 64.529
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26. Wright, Georgia 39 69 61 81 67 97 48 63.852
27. McKinney, Creighton 37 91 80 86 64 77 57 63.794
28. Williams, Oklahoma St 76 80 80 81 45 38 86 63.676
29. White, Oklahoma 44 77 82 76 55 100 52 63.647
30. Prasse-Freeman, Harvard 35 72 83 79 89 62 34 63.588
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31. Gardner, Arizona 67 73 75 80 59 50 63 63.529
32. Hawkins, Kentucky 35 75 95 76 79 56 54 63.323
33. Hill, Michigan State 72 81 92 83 51 45 63 63.205
34. Santee, TCU 76 82 79 76 61 50 40 63.000
35. Felton, N. Carolina 52 69 84 75 70 54 54 62.794
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36. Knight, Pittsburgh 46 62 57 46 77 59 73 62.588
37. Scott, Clemson 66 73 76 76 62 67 36 62.441
38. Deane, Purdue 98 82 73 82 35 37 68 62.264
39. Price, Oklahoma 90 86 89 100 37 45 47 62.058
40. Clemons, Missouri 76 75 84 82 54 37 57 61.941
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41. Little, VMI 42 64 56 66 82 43 67 61.823
42. Jack, Georgia Tech 45 83 70 72 76 46 54 61.676
43. Moore, Washington St 87 66 70 78 51 36 58 61.617
44. Barea, Northeastern 80 74 67 85 49 41 60 61.529
45. McGrath, Providence 45 68 76 85 61 84 30 59.941
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46. Brown, Illinois 52 80 76 63 56 76 45 59.705
47. Harris, Wisconsin 63 92 93 83 33 56 67 58.970
48. Brown, Connecticut 43 78 14 60 80 69 39 58.970
49. Gray, Wake Forest 61 73 53 72 59 46 57 58.823
50. Zimmerman, Miss. St 45 92 54 74 62 43 65 58.500
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51. Hamilton, Florida 38 100 78 80 50 66 59 58.441
52. Roberson, Florida 85 82 93 89 29 33 55 57.117
53. Williams, Illinois 37 75 77 51 66 65 48 57.088
54. Darby, Ohio State 74 70 75 85 43 34 50 56.264
55. Horton, Michigan 68 69 74 80 48 36 45 55.500
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56. Finn, Xavier 37 83 100 74 48 64 47 55.352
57. Sidney, Boston College 62 87 41 48 55 50 49 55.264
58. Miller, Butler 59 86 99 83 40 46 40 54.764
59. Watson, Tennessee 40 84 81 70 59 53 37 54.705
60. Marshall, Dayton 52 75 75 68 54 67 23 54.647
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61. Coverdale, Indiana 54 68 70 87 51 54 32 54.558
62. Williams, Alabama 67 69 67 90 46 36 36 53.852
63. Drisdom, Utah 31 80 94 83 59 40 44 53.647
64. Midgley, Cal 58 96 100 74 46 33 31 52.941
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65. Fitch, Kentucky 66 85 86 82 31 41 43 52.352
66. Ingram, St. John's 52 76 90 67 37 32 50 49.323
67. Barnes, Stanford 67 68 73 85 40 33 18 48.852
68. Downey, Wake Forest 49 62 66 94 43 41 19 47.382
69. Nelson, Florida 44 54 66 89 35 39 32 44.705
70. McKnight, Purdue 32 72 0 74 41 54 37 42.794
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This year’s winner? None other than mighty mite Marques Green of St. Bonaventure, who continues the Bonnies’ recent tradition of small point guards (Shandue McNeil, Tim Winn). The diminutive junior point guard registered high marks both scoring and assists-wise, and beefed up his scores on the defensive end with the second best steals score. In fact, he finished in the top five in four different categories – there really wasn’t a category where he struggled to score high marks in. And his margin of lead over the rest of the pack is one of the highest we’ve seen since we started this study years ago.
Now does this mean that Green really is the best point guard in the land? Certainly that’s arguable, but at the very least it does show that he’s someone to look out for who isn’t on the national radar screen. And while it’s true that Green racks up stats for a mediocre Atlantic-10 team, he did fare well in all categories that we measured. And did it in a way that ranked him above his peers – despite his 5-7 height (the shortest player in our study).
Right after Green is another relative unknown, Marcus Banks of UNLV. While Banks doesn’t make your local newspaper either, there’s no question that he’s made a big difference for Charlie Spoonhour’s Runnin’ Rebels since he transferred there from junior college, and has put together a fantastic senior season. Banks’ large margin in the steals category may have made the difference in his high ranking, as well as his high scoring and shooting percentage marks – which made up for his relatively low assist/turnover ratio. However, his rank could be debated as UNLV plays in a “weaker” conference – which may allow him the opportunity to pad his numbers.
But starting at #3, many of the names known to most around the country start appearing. Ford, Ridnour, Thomas, Miles, and Blake — players from major conferences, all of whom their fans and followers would argue is the top point guard in the land. In years past, many of the big names didn’t rank near the top. But this year, they all showed that they indeed are worthy of being the cream of the crop. And with so few points differentiating between them all, it’s not clear if one is better or worse than the other according to our study. Each point guard brings a different set of skills to the table, and it shows up in the ratings.
Rounding out the Top Ten are a couple of converted shooting guards – Reece Gaines of Louisville, and Bernard King of Texas A&M – and the nation’s current assist leader, Martell Bailey of Illinois-Chicago. In Gaines and King, you have two players who are showing that it is indeed possible to make the conversion from scorer to distributor – without giving up too much of the scoring part. Both are fantastic all-around players who should generate buzz come NBA Draft time.
Going down the list, it’s interesting to see where some of the other big names place. Kansas could brag they have the finest backcourt in the land, and Kirk Hinrich at #17 certainly does nothing to disprove that. Chris Duhon of Duke ranks #19; and while he hasn’t quite lived up to All-American billing this year, he’s still putting together a good season despite his struggles with his shot. At #20, we have this year’s top freshman in the ratings – Gerry McNamara of Syracuse, who arguably wouldn’t have started at the point had Billy Edelin been eligible from day one. He’s put together quite a first year.
Moving lower down the list, at #31 is Arizona’s Jason Gardner – a point guard many feel ranks with the Fords, Thomases, and Ridnours of the world. But in this study, he simply didn’t rate well in the two assist-related categories, although his numbers in the other stats were solid. Pittsburgh’s Brandin Knight (#36) dropped due to his low numbers offensively, especially his poor proficiency at the charity stripe. Converted point guards like Hollis Price (Oklahoma) and Willie Deane (Purdue) simply don’t make the cut. Freshman points such as Dee Brown (Illinois) and Daniel Horton (Michigan) still have a lot to learn. And sadly, Florida senior Brett Nelson almost ranks last in our rating system – and would have ranked last if Brandon McKnight (Purdue) had hit a single three-pointer. Nelson was a kid who was garnering All-America last year and was once hailed as the next Jerry West. How far he has fallen.
Here are the top 5 performers in each individual category:
Points per 40 Minutes --------------------- 1. Marcus Hatten, St. John's 25.97 2. Willie Deane, Purdue 25.56 3. Troy Bell, Boston College 25.23 4. Hollis Price, Oklahoma 23.37 5. Marques Green, St. Bonaventure 22.93 Field Goal Percentage --------------------- 1. Justin Hamilton, Florida .549 2. Richard Midgley, California .528 3. Marcus Banks, UNLV .518 4. Devin Harris, Wisconsin .5078 5. Derrick Zimmerman, Mississippi St .5076 3-pt Field Goal Percentage -------------------------- 1. Richard Midgley, California .462 2. Dedrick Finn, Xavier .461 3. Kirk Hinrich, Kansas .4569 4. Brandon Miller, Butler .4568 5. Cliff Hawkins, Kentucky .438 Free Throw Percentage --------------------- 1. Hollis Price, Oklahoma .940 2. Gerry McNamara, Syracuse .938 3. Marques Green, St. Bonaventure .894 4. Taron Downey, Wake Forest .886 5. Travis Diener, Marquette .886 Assists per 40 Minutes ---------------------- 1. Martell Bailey, Illinois-Chicago 10.25 2. Aaron Miles, Kansas 9.41 3. Elliott Prasse-Freeman, Harvard 9.13 4. Marques Green, St. Bonaventure 8.76 5. T.J. Ford, Texas 8.73 Assist-Turnover Ratio --------------------- 1. Quannas White, Oklahoma 3.41 2. Rashad Wright, Georgia 3.31 3. Donnie McGrath, Providence 2.86 4. Travis Diener, Marquette 2.85 5. Reggie Kohn, South Florida 2.75 Steals per 40 Minutes --------------------- 1. Marcus Banks, UNLV 3.64 2. Marcus Hatten, St. John's 3.22 3. Marques Green, St. Bonaventure 3.15 4. Victor Williams, Oklahoma St 3.11 5. Aaron Miles, Kansas 2.94
Of course, this is just one way of comparing the nation’s best point guards to each other, and is by no means the only method. I have had suggestions in the past to modify the method by either adding in factors to normalize for team style of play or strength of schedule (i.e. Sagarin Ratings). Also, perhaps different weights should be given to the categories. Have any suggestions, comments, or think I left out anybody worthy of inclusion? Be sure to drop me your suggestions!
Before we go, a look at previous year’s winners:
2002 – Kirk Hinrich, Kansas
2001 – Greedy Daniels, TCU
2000 – Pepe Sanchez, Temple
1999 – Arthur Lee, Stanford
And finally, as I always say, with anything done with stats, take it with a grain of salt. It’s just one way of looking at things. But a good way, in my opinion.
Thanks go to James Oliver III for his help with the ratings section
Part I | Part II
