Home » Columns » Currently Reading:

Austin Index 7

January 10, 2004 Columns No Comments


The Austin Index (formerly the TMPG Thursday Power Poll)

by Dean Austin

One of the challenges of bringing my own formula to a column is communication. That sounds a little silly for a columnist but the problem is that this formula has been my way of tracking the over rated and under rated for a number of years. I’m used to it, but communicating it to others is new to me. It’s taken me a few weeks to figure it out but I believe I now have a bit of a better handle on this. First, I’ve renamed this column the Austin Index which is much better than calling it a Power Poll. Second, I’m introducing a more formalized way of discussing the potential upsets by listing a team’s Upset Quotient, or UQ for short.

Upset Quotient (UQ)

The Upset Quotient takes a team’s ranking in the Hoopville Top 25 and compares it with its placing in the Austin Index. One point is awarded for each place difference. So for example, Connecticut is #1 in the Hoopville Top 25, but does not appear in Austin Index. The Huskies UQ is +25, the maximum possible. Duke on the other hand is ranked #2 in the Hoopville Top 25 and #8 in the Austin Index. Therefore the Blue Devils have a UQ of +6. And so forth.

Here are the ten teams from the Hoopville Top 25 with the highest UQ.

25	Connecticut
23	Wake Forest
18	Saint Joseph's
16	Cincinnati
13	Kansas
12	Georgia Tech
12	North Carolina
10	Gonzaga
 9	Syracuse
 6	Duke
 

Now the inverse is true. A negative number when comparing the Austin Index to the Hoopville Top 25 indicates that a team is capable of producing an upset. Let me repeat that; is capable of producing an upset. Not will produce an upset, not certainly will produce an upset, but capable.

Here are the ten teams from the Austin Index with the best negative UQ.

-25	Xavier
-17	UNLV
-16	Oklahoma State
-13	Tennessee
-12	Wisconsin
-12	Alabama
-10	Florida State
- 9	Hawaii
- 8	Texas
- 8	SMU

So let’s for the moment say that everything stays the same between now and the 17th of January when Xavier plays Saint Joseph’s. Do I think Saint Joseph’s will win? Actually yes I do, but the formula says take another look. It does not say Xavier will win but rather the Austin Index is a tool that I use to decide to look at that match up in more detail.

There are no absolutes in College Basketball save for one, whom is crowned the National Champion.

I also got a request from Laurent this week for a clarification when it comes to two teams in the index that are close together and play each other.

Here’s the situation.

1. A
2. B
3. C

A and C play and C wins.
B doesn’t play.

What Laurent wanted to know was the following, “So C takes A’s place in the poll and A moves down half the distance, so here 2nd spot. But what about B? Does A take the 2nd spot and B 3rd or does A take the 2nd spot but since B didn’t play, it doesn’t move and A takes 3rd spot?”

The first part is correct, team C would take the place of A, A would move down to position 2 and B would move down to position 3. This is how teams at the lower end of the Index move out as teams above them lose and move down.

Again to summarize:

1. If you beat a higher ranked team you take their spot. The higher ranked team moves down half the distance between its old ranking and the victor’s old ranking.

2. If you lose to a higher ranked team you move down 1 position.

Austin Index

January 8th, 2004

1. Xavier
2. Stanford
3. Arizona
4. Oklahoma
5. Florida
6. Wisconsin
7. Louisville
8. Duke
9. UNLV
10. Oklahoma State
11. Texas
12. Kentucky
13. Tennessee
14. Alabama
15. Pittsburgh
16. Florida State
17. Hawaii
18. SMU
19. Maryland
20. Georgia
21. Georgia Tech
22. Boston U
23. Nevada
24. Marquette
25. Montana State

See you all next week.

     

Comment on this Article:







Subscribe to Hoopville

Enter your email address to subscribe to Hoopville

Advertisement


Hoopville Archives

College Basketball Tonight

We hope you enjoyed COLLEGE BASKETBALL TONIGHT during the 2016 NCAA Tournament. COLLEGE BASKETBALL TONIGHT is a comprehensive look at the NCAA Tournament hosted by veteran college basketball broadcaster Ted Sarandis, along with co-hosts Mike Jarvis and Terry O'Connor, both former Division I coaches. It also included many great guests, including Hoopville's own Phil Kasiecki.

The show aired on AM 710 WOR in New York City on Sunday evenings starting with Selection Sunday and running through the NCAA Tournament.

Here are links to the shows:

March 13, 2016 - First hour | Second hour

March 20, 2016 - First hour | Second hour

March 27, 2016 - First hour | Second hour

April 3, 2016 - First hour | Second hour

Everybody Needs a Head Coach

Former college basketball coach Mike Jarvis has a new book out, Everybody Needs a Head Coach.

"As you read this book, I hope that Coach Jarvis' experiences inspire you to find your purpose in life."
-Patrick Ewing, NBA Hall of Fame center

"Mike Jarvis' is one of my special friends. I am so pleased that he has taken the time to write this fabulous book."
-Mike Krzyzewski, Five-time NCAA championship head coach, Duke Blue Devils

"In reading this book, I can see that Mike hasn't lost his edge or his purpose. Readers should take a look at what he has to say."
-Jim Calhoun, Three-time NCAA champion, UConn Men's basketball

Review on Hoopville coming soon!

Coaching Changes and NBA Draft Early Entrants

The coaching carousel is moving. Keep track of the latest coaching changes right here on Hoopville.

Also, keep track of players who have declared early for the NBA Draft.

Hoopville Podcasts

Talking Hoops With Ted Sarandis – December 8, 2017

December 8, 2017 by

In our latest podcast, we talk about a bizarre finish to an early-season tournament game, the Pac-12’s early struggles, Florida teams going in different directions and two northeast teams trending less relevant even as they excite fans at a famous arena.

Talking Hoops With Ted Sarandis – November 22, 2017

November 22, 2017 by

In our pre-Thanksgiving podcast, we look at a key injury that is likely to be devastating for his team and an under-the-radar 4-0 week, then move on to some early SEC impressions and a couple of teams that just continue to win.

Talking Hoops With Ted Sarandis – November 9, 2017

November 10, 2017 by

The season is almost here, and we take a look at some of what to expect this coming season. We have preseason polls, conference changes, a look at some conferences and some matchups to start the season.

Talking Hoops With Ted Sarandis – October 2, 2017

October 2, 2017 by

The FBI has zeroed in on college basketball in a big way, and what has happened may be the beginning of a massive hit to the sport. We discuss what we know thus far in our latest podcast.

Talking Hoops With Ted Sarandis – August 17, 2017

August 18, 2017 by

In our latest podcast, we check in with some good news from a few teams overseas after a big scare, plus a big addition for a championship contender, a conference on the rise, and a great coach thinking about a return to the bench.

Phil Kasiecki on Twitter

Recruiting Coverage

Lincoln captures Hamilton Park title

August 15, 2017 by

For the first time, a public school won the Hamilton Park Summer League, and they were led by a big effort from a junior point guard in the title game.

Notes from a day at the 2017 Boston Shootout

June 12, 2017 by

Some news and notes coming from the second and final day of action at the 2017 Boston Shootout, where the host program provided plenty of talent, but so did a program that produced a team that beat them.

Notes from a day at the 2017 Northeast Hoops Festival

April 11, 2017 by

The Northeast Hoops Festival helped bring in the new spring travel season in New England, and we have notes from some of Saturday’s action.

2016 Boston Back to School Showcase notes

September 12, 2016 by

We look back at the 2016 Boston Back to School Showcase, where a couple of Boston City League teams were among the most impressive on the day.

2016 Hoopville Spring Finale championship recap

June 28, 2016 by

We look back at the championship games of the 2016 Hoopville Spring Finale, which had a big local flavor as one might have expected.