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The Austin Index

January 23, 2004 Columns No Comments

The Austin Index

by Dean Austin

Lots of upsets the past couple of weeks as has been the trend throughout the season. Connecticut finally beat a team of consequence in Oklahoma only to fall subsequently to North Carolina. The good news for the Tar Heels is that they enter the Index for the first time all year.

Similarly Saint Joseph’s also makes a belated entry to the Index. Timing of course is everything and they would have preferred to see Xavier beat Duquesne rather than the upset that it was.

Cincinnati has a chance Wednesday to finally reach the Index as they play a team of consequence in Louisville. The Bearcats may be undefeated but I was singularly unimpressed with their performance in the victory over Marquette.

One of the SEC’s great secrets, Vanderbilt, knocked off Florida and should be a team that no-one wants to play.

Austin Index

January 21st, 2004

1.  Duquesne
2.  Stanford
3.  North Carolina
4.  Arizona State
5.  Vanderbilt
6.  Purdue
7.  Louisville
8.  Duke
9.  Utah
10. Texas Tech
11. Texas
12. Georgia
13. Mississippi State
14. Saint Joseph's
15. USC
16. Florida
17. Connecticut
18. Arizona
19. Kentucky
20. Xavier
21. LSU
22. South Carolina
23. Wisconsin
24. Tennessee
25. Oklahoma State

Upset Quotient (UQ)

The Upset Quotient takes a team’s ranking in the Hoopville Top 25 and compares it with its placing in the Austin Index. One point is awarded for each place difference. So for example, Connecticut is #1 in the Hoopville Top 25, but does not appear in Austin Index. The Huskies UQ is +25, the maximum possible. Duke on the other hand is ranked #2 in the Hoopville Top 25 and #8 in the Austin Index. Therefore the Blue Devils have a UQ of +6. And so forth.

Here are the ten teams from the Hoopville Top 25 with the highest UQ. This is as of Tuesday Morning. Obviously the results of Tuesday night are interesting in this context, especially Syracuse and Wake Forest.

21 Cincinnati
18 Wake Forest
16 Pittsburgh
15 Kansas
13 Connecticut
12 Kentucky
12 Gonzaga
11 Saint Joseph's
11 Syracuse
 6 Duke

Now the inverse is true. A negative number when comparing the Austin Index to the Hoopville Top 25 indicates that a team is capable of producing an upset. Let me repeat that; is capable of producing an upset. Not will produce an upset, not certainly will produce an upset, but capable.

Here are the ten teams from the Austin Index with the best negative UQ.

-25 Duquesne
-22 Arizona State
-17 Utah
-17 Purdue
-15 Vanderbilt
-14 Georgia
-11 USC
- 8 Texas Tech
- 6 North Carolina
- 6 Mississippi State

Remember when it comes to the Austin Index:

1. If you beat a higher ranked team you take their spot. The higher ranked team moves down half the distance between its old ranking and the victor’s old ranking.

2. If you lose to a higher ranked team you move down 1 position.

See you all next week.


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