Atlantic Coast Conference 2005-06 Preview
by Michael Protos
Welcome back to the world of ACC men’s basketball. When we last visited the conference, North Carolina was cutting down the nets after beating Illinois in the national championship game, and the other 10 schools were watching in envy.
Now the ACC has 12 members chasing the 2005-06 title. Boston College quietly joined the ACC this past summer, ending an oft-tumultuous expansion, in which the conference raided the Big East for Miami, Virginia Tech and Boston College. Although the move primarily strengthens the conference’s football profile, it will also prove beneficial to basketball this year. Two out of three of those schools will reach the NCAA Tournament this year, and all three will be competitive, perhaps more so than the reigning national champion.
In an era of players leaving early for the NBA, no team can feel safe with a wealth of talent and the Tar Heels have become a victim of their own success. If not for the lure of fame and fortune in the NBA, they would have a starting lineup that would include seniors Sean May, Raymond Felton, Rashad McCants and sophomore Marvin Williams. As it is, all four are earning paychecks for teams that selected them during the NBA Draft lottery.
On the other hand, after Duke was victimized by early entrants before last season, the Blue Devils became the most fortunate school in the country when J.J. Redick and Shelden Williams both decided to return to Durham. Coupled with the best recruiting class in the country, the Blue Devils are the clear favorites to win a national championship.
The most enduring story of college basketball will be the Big East’s ridiculous lineup of solid teams. But both the Big East and ACC will suffer from a similar problem: for every great match up between strong teams, there has to be a loser. And as losses build up, the chances of an NCAA Tournament bid go down. At the end of this preview, we name the five ACC teams that will be playing in this year’s NCAA Tournament.
Projected Order of Finish
1. Duke
2. Maryland
3. Boston College
4. North Carolina State
5. Miami
6. Virginia Tech
7. Wake Forest
8. Georgia Tech
9. North Carolina
10. Florida State
11. Clemson
12. Virginia
Preseason Awards
It may be a meaningless exercise in speculation, but everyone loves to dole out pre-season awards. If nothing else, these players have the hype entering this season, so pay attention to see if they deserve it or not. We’ll revisit these awards throughout the season.
ACC Most Valuable Player: J.J. Redick, Duke
Duke has a stacked roster, and J.J. Redick is the team’s most dangerous weapon. Last season, Redick improved his ball-handling skills, which allowed him to add penetrating drives to his arsenal. Redick already has the best range of any player in college basketball, and he’s one of the best free-throw shooters in history. This season, Redick will continue to thrive even though opposing defenses will scheme to slow him down.
1st Team All-ACC:
J.J. Redick, Duke
Shelden Williams, Duke
Robert Hite, Miami
Craig Smith, Boston College
Jared Dudley, Boston College
10 more players to watch (in alphabetical order):
Cameron Bennerman, North Carolina State
Nik Caner-Medley, Maryland
Guillero Diaz, Miami
Sean Dockery, Duke
Zabian Dowdell, Virginia Tech
Ilian Evtimov, North Carolina State
Justin Gray, Wake Forest
Sean Marshall, Boston College
Chris McCray, Maryland
Eric Williams, Wake Forest
Freshman of the year: Josh McRoberts, Duke
When an ACC team has a starting spot open for the top high school recruit who attends college, it’s easy to predict the freshman of the year. Barring injuries, forward Josh McRoberts should have a monster year for the Blue Devils playing along side senior forward Shelden Williams.
His closest competition will come from fellow Blue Devil point guard Greg Paulus, North Carolina’s Tyler Hansbrough and Marcus Ginyard, Florida State forward Uche Echefu, Georgia Tech’s Lewis Clinch and Miami backup guard Denis Clemente.
Defensive Players of the Year: Shelden Williams, Duke and Anthony King, Miami
Last season, Duke’s Shelden Williams became one of the best defenders in the nation by emphatically swatting anything within his reach. He also was a demon on the glass, collecting rebounds at both ends of the court. King is also a force in the post because of his ability to block shots. King registered a triple-double last season in points, rebounds and blocks. Look for the Hurricanes to continue to upset the ACC’s old guard, and King will be critical to Miami’s success on the defensive end. In the end, the defensive statistics will probably favor King because he is Miami’s only reliable option in the paint. But Duke’s success and Williams’ high profile will garner at least a tie for the defensive award.
ACC Coach Watch:
Now that Virginia’s Pete Gillen is out, no ACC team has a coach in dire straits. But Florida State’s Leonard Hamilton needs to put together a better run than the past two seasons. The Seminoles have a world of talent and several highly regarded recruiting classes, but that hype hasn’t translated to success on the court.
A couple of coaches have difficult roads ahead because their programs are restocking. For example, Wake Forest’s Skip Prosser and North Carolina’s Roy Williams must get their veterans to help teach the youngsters to play effectively.
Meanwhile, a few coaches must handle high expectations. Boston College’s Al Skinner, Maryland’s Gary Williams and North Carolina State’s Herb Sendek need their teams to have solid seasons that end in a top ACC finish and solid NCAA Tournament showing. Anything less than a Sweet 16 appearance will be a disappointment. And for Sendek, that could cost him his job at a school where alumni and other critics have called for Sendek’s head on a platter more than once already.
Team Capsules
(Note: All projected starting lineups reflect the best five players, regardless of injuries or suspensions to start the season.)
Duke Blue Devils (2004-05: 27-6, 11-5, 3rd)
Starters:
Senior forward Shelden Williams
Freshman forward Josh McRoberts
Senior forward Lee Melchionni
Senior guard J.J. Redick
Senior guard Sean Dockery
Schedule breakdown:
Duke plays a non-conference schedule befitting a national championship contender. In the NIT Season Tip-Off, formerly known as the Preseason NIT, the Blue Devils could meet Missouri, UCLA, Memphis or Alabama in two out of three games. Duke is the clear favorite to win, but games against Memphis and UCLA would pit the Blue Devils against teams on the rise. In addition, Duke plays at Indiana, Georgetown and Temple and plays Texas at the Meadowlands in what could be a preview of this year’s national championship game.
Duke gets two games against North Carolina, Maryland, Wake Forest, Florida State and Virginia Tech. Although every team in the conference guns for Duke, the Blue Devils catch a break by not playing North Carolina State and Boston College twice. On the other hand, with only one game against those squads, the Blue Devils cannot afford to lose. The toughest conference test will be a road trip to Massachusetts to play the Eagles.
Key stretch: Duke will jockey for NCAA Tournament seeding before the Blue Devils finish the first semester. From late November through Dec. 10, Duke will play in the NIT Season Tip-Off finals at Madison Square Garden, at Indiana, Virginia Tech, Pennsylvania and vs. Texas at the Meadowlands. If Duke wins all six games during that stretch, only a five-loss ACC record would keep Duke out of a No. 1 seed come March.
Roster notes:
Duke has a lineup tailored to a national championship run. The Blue Devils have experienced leaders, defensive specialists and an outstanding recruiting class that can contribute immediately and provide depth. That is a big change compared with last year, when the Blue Devils had no depth and relied on walk-ons and inexperienced players to play when injuries struck.
The biggest loss is Daniel Ewing, who was a seasoned senior leader and a reliable outside shooter. He helped deflect attention from J.J. Redick. This season’s version of the Blue Devils does not have a clear second shooter to keep defenses honest. But Duke does have senior Sean Dockery to run the point until freshman Greg Paulus adjusts. Dockery is a defensive guru, while Paulus is a natural-born playmaker. There’s a good chance that coach Mike Krzyzewski will play both depending on the match up. The Blue Devils are deep enough this year that they are going to sit sophomore forward David McClure as a redshirt player this season. McClure had off-season knee surgery and will use this season to recover and get back into shape.
In the post, Shelden Williams is the best big man in the conference and one of the best players in the country. Partnered with freshman Josh McRoberts, Williams helps form the most dominant frontcourt in the ACC. The Blue Devils lost forward Shavlik Randolph after last season because Randolph tried to crack the NBA. Mostly, Randolph tired of Duke, and the Blue Devils won’t miss him, especially with McRoberts in the lineup.
Outlook:
Duke should easily win the ACC and claim a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Much like North Carolina last season, anything less than a national championship will be somewhat disappointing. Of course, such high standards only set up fans, players and coaches for disappointment, but coach K will keep this team focused on the next game. Each opponent should be ready for 40 minutes of intense defensive pressure and balanced offense. Because Duke will need freshmen to contribute early, the Blue Devils likely won’t have a perfect season, but don’t expect this team to lose more than five or six games through the entire season.
Prediction: First
Maryland Terrapins (2004-05: 19-13, 7-9, tie 6th)
Starters:
Junior forward Ekene Ibekwe
Senior forward Travis Garrison
Senior forward Nik Caner-Medley
Senior guard Chris McCray
Junior guard D.J. Strawberry
Schedule breakdown:
The Terrapins don’t have a tough non-conference schedule outside of two notable exceptions – the Maui Invitational and the BB&T Classic. The latter features a match up against George Washington that will determine the best team in the Washington, D.C., metro area. But the former is a monster tournament that includes Arizona, Arkansas, Connecticut, Gonzaga, Kansas and Michigan State. If Maryland plays three of those teams and wins two, the Terps will have great momentum heading into the rest of the season.
In the ACC, Maryland plays Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina and Virginia twice. That’s a manageable set of games. In addition, the Terps get to host Boston College, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest without going to their home courts. The schedule-makers gave Maryland an opportunity to make a run at Duke, which the Terps swept last season. And thankfully, Maryland plays Clemson, which beat the Terps three times last season, only once.
Roster notes:
The Terrapins only lost one player from last season’s squad, junior point guard John Gilchrist. Gilchrist and coach Gary Williams often did not see eye to eye, and Williams benched Gilchrist a couple of times last season. Without Gilchrist around as a distraction this season after he left school for the NBA Draft, the Terrapins may be stronger than ever. Maryland returns seven of eight players who averaged at least six points a game last season, including leading scorers Nik Caner-Medley and Chris McCray. Although Gilchrist is gone, junior guard D.J. Strawberry could take over at point guard. Strawberry is a defensive whiz, so if Williams can get him to play efficiently and take care of the ball, Strawberry could be an upgrade at point guard compared with Gilchrist.
But if Strawberry struggles, Williams can turn to JuCo transfer Parrish Brown. After Gilchrist left, Williams scrambled to add depth at point guard because Sterling Ledbetter did not excel when he attempted to fill Gilchrist’s shoes. Entering this season, Williams has three options at point guard and only needs one to embrace the role. With a solid frontcourt led by senior Travis Garrison, juniors Ekene Ibekwe and Will Bowers, and sophomore James Gist, Maryland can go toe to toe with any frontcourt in the conference and maybe the nation. The only question is whether those players will play consistently, which has been the infuriating missing link for the Terrapins.
This team has as much talent as Duke, but the Terrapins just don’t play A+ plus basketball every night like the Blue Devils do. If the frontcourt plays consistently, the backcourt seemingly drops off. And with the trio of point guards in addition to McCray and junior Mike Jones, there’s plenty of talent among the guards, too. Williams could have a 10-man rotation this season.
Outlook:
Maryland must play consistently and find a senior leader. The Terrapins have several possible leaders, and Caner-Medley and McCray are the best options. Brown, Ledbetter and Strawberry will probably need a few games to get comfortable with Williams’ rotation at point guard, but once they settle in, Maryland’s offense should run like a well-oiled machine. If the Terrapins can commit to solid defense, led by Strawberry on the perimeter and Ibekwe in the middle, Maryland has no limits on how far it could go this season.
Prediction: Second
Boston College Eagles (2004-05: 25-5, 13-3, tie 1st in Big East)
Starters:
Senior forward Craig Smith
Junior forward Jared Dudley
Sophomore forward Akida McClain
Junior guard Sean Marshall
Senior guard Louis Hinnant
Schedule breakdown:
Boston College does not face a daunting non-conference schedule, with the exception of a game against Michigan State in New York City. The Eagles play three road games at Duquesne, Rhode Island and Holy Cross, but those should not be stumbling blocks for the team. Boston College could easily enter conference play with only one loss.
In conference, Boston College has a good chance to challenge Duke for the conference title because the Eagles play Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina State, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest twice. Although those games won’t be easy, they’re not as tough as playing Duke or Maryland twice, and the lone game against the Blue Devils is in Chestnut Hill. If the Eagles win that game, Duke might have to peak in its rearview mirror a couple of times during conference play. The Eagles will be looming.
Key stretch: Boston College must take care of business on the road to challenge Duke. Therefore, back-to-back road games against Miami and North Carolina are huge for the Eagles before they play Georgia Tech and Duke at home. After the bout with the Blue Devils, the Eagles must maintain enough energy to hold off Virginia Tech in Blacksburg.
Roster notes:
Boston College has a ferocious starting five that includes four returning starters: Craig Smith, Jared Dudley, Louis Hinnant and Sean Marshall. All four are experienced juniors and seniors. Sophomore forward Akida McClain will likely move in to the starting lineup if he’s available. Coach Al Skinner suspended McClain indefinitely because of an incident in which McClain tried to pay for goods with counterfeit money. According to McClain, he did not know the money, given to him by a friend, was counterfeit. Without McClain, the Eagles have less depth. They must also replace Jermaine Watson and Nate Doornekamp, who graduated after last season. Sophomore Sean Williams will miss the first semester because of a suspension, but he’s likely to return in solid form because he’s been practicing in Houston with members of the Cougars.
Based on these suspensions and losses, Boston College might run into some trouble early in the season. Fortunately, their schedule is easy except for a run-in with Michigan State in New York. By the time conference play hits full swing, the Eagles should be at full strength. Strength is the operative word for a team dominated by sound post play and good defense. Skinner lacks a bunch of explosive athletes; instead, he has a team full of intelligent players who understand how to play to win. Their offense runs plenty of screens, and each player knows where he is supposed to go on the court. The same is true on defense, where the Eagles limit the opportunities for open shots or drives to the basket. The Eagles will be interesting to watch because they play a classic, bruising Big East style in a more athletic, guard-oriented, fast-paced ACC. The Eagles will force plenty of matchup problems, but they might also encounter a few that are unfavorable.
As usual, no one is raving about Skinner’s recruiting class. With the early-season suspensions, freshmen guards Marquez Haynes and Tyrese Rice could see more playing time if Boston College uses three guards with Dudley and Smith. That experience could be significant if Haynes and Rice become decent shooters on a team that had only one player hit more than 40 three-pointers last season.
Outlook:
The Eagles have one of the best frontcourts in the conference and play efficiently. But Boston College cannot afford to fall behind to fast-paced teams because they don’t have the personnel to mount long comebacks. On the other hand, this team’s defensive fortitude will keep it in most games, and Dudley has the talent and experience to come through in the clutch. Look for mixed results out of the Eagles early and a strong finish.
Prediction: Third
North Carolina State Wolfpack (2004-05: 21-14, 7-9, tie 6th)
Starters:
Sophomore forward Andrew Brackman
Senior forward Ilian Evtimov
Senior guard Cameron Bennerman
Senior guard Tony Bethel
Junior guard Engin Atsur
Schedule breakdown:
The Wolfpack have a mixed bag of non-conference opponents. The bad teams on the schedule are really bad, but the good teams include games away from Raleigh against Notre Dame, Iowa and Alabama. The Wolfpack also host George Washington. At this point, that looks like an imposing schedule, but if two of those teams fail to live up to expectations, the Wolfpack will need to excel in conference play to prove their worth to the NCAA selection committee. Most likely, these games will decide seeding rather than deciding between an invitation to the NCAA or NIT.
Although North Carolina State must play at Duke without a game in Raleigh, the Wolfpack could have a worse slate. The Wolfpack play Boston College, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina and Wake Forest twice. Other than Boston College, those opponents probably won’t be elite ACC teams this season. The Wolfpack host Maryland in what could easily decide second, third or fourth place in the conference.
Key stretch: The Wolfpack need to get off to a fast start to build confidence and prove to the world that this team is for real. North Carolina State will have a chance to do that in early January when it plays at North Carolina, Duke and Boston College in a two-week period that also includes home games against Georgia Tech and Wake Forest. If the Wolfpack finish with three or more wins through that stretch, they should easily finish in the top four in the conference.
Roster notes:
With the graduation of Julius Hodge, most people assume the Wolfpack have to take a step back this season. He was North Carolina State’s only double-figure scorer and also led the team in rebound and assists. If you wanted to find Hodge on the court, all you had to do was look for the ball. But North Carolina State will not be in a rebuilding mode this year thanks to a balanced lineup that believes in coach Herb Sendek’s system.
Although North Carolina State will have to find someone to replace Hodge as a go-to player in the clutch, the Wolfpack have several strong candidates, including senior guards Cameron Bennerman and Tony Bethel and senior forward Ilian Evtimov. This team has a ton of experience with junior guard Engin Atsur and sophomore forward Andrew Brackman joining those three in the starting lineup. Sophomores Gavin Grant and Cedric Simmons provide solid depth in the post, and all of these players can shoot, which Sendek demands for his version of the Princeton offense. He emphasizes sound ball control and good shot selection. Four returning players shot better than 36 percent from three-point range.
In addition to the returning players, Sendek has a solid trio of freshmen in guard Courtney Fells and forwards Brandon Costner and Ben McCauley. Fells and Costner will likely find some playing time this year. Fells has the potential to remind Wolfpack fans of Hodge. If Sendek can get solid production from just one freshman, the Wolfpack will have one of the deepest and most solid lineups in the conference.
Outlook:
The Wolfpack need Bethel, Bennerman or Evtimov to fill Hodge’s spot as a clutch playmaker to meet expectations this season. North Carolina State has a good, deep lineup that is heavy on guards and forwards who like to play away from the basket. Like all Sendek-coached teams, the Wolfpack will likely struggle on the glass but excel on defense. The key for North Carolina State will be a commitment to rebounding against the ACC teams with elite centers, like Duke, Boston College and Wake Forest.
Prediction: Fourth
Miami Hurricanes (2004-05: 16-13, 7-9, tie 6th)
Starters:
Senior forward Gary Hamilton
Junior forward Anthony King
Senior guard Robert Hite
Junior guard Guillermo Diaz
Junior guard Anthony Harris
Schedule breakdown:
The Hurricanes have NCAA aspirations entering this season, and they play an NCAA-worthy non-conference schedule. In the BCA Classic, hosted by Washington in Seattle, Miami is favored to play the Huskies in the final game of the tournament. The Hurricanes also play at Temple and Michigan and host Florida and Louisville, the latter game in Sunrise, Fla. That’s a more challenging non-conference slate than either Georgia Tech or Wake Forest.
In the ACC, Miami gets Boston College, Florida State, Maryland, North Carolina and North Carolina State twice. The Hurricanes will have to earn a top six finish in the ACC with games against several elite teams. Home games against Wake Forest and Virginia Tech are must-wins because the Hurricanes only play those teams once. Miami travels to Duke just once, but that won’t help the Hurricanes’ daunting task in that match up.
Key stretch: Miami’s conference schedule is rough from top to bottom, but the definitive stretch may come in early to mid February when the Hurricanes play at Georgia Tech before hosting North Carolina State and North Carolina. Then Miami goes back on the road to Boston College and Duke. The Hurricanes likely will need to steal a road game and protect home court to emerge from that stretch as a guaranteed NCAA Tournament possibility.
Roster notes:
Miami does not lose much from last season, only starting senior forward William Frisby. And the Hurricanes have another senior forward ready to step into his place in Gary Hamilton. Like Frisby, Hamilton won’t light up the scoreboard, but he should be good for eight points and six rebounds per game. That’s just fine on a team dominated by small, explosive guards.
Like last season, the backcourt combination of Anthony Harris, Guillermo Diaz and Robert Hite will carry Miami. Last season, Hite and Diaz were two of the ACC’s leading scorers. They have an excellent opportunity to join Duke’s J.J. Redick at the top again. Miami will miss Harris early in the season, however, because of a fractured foot. He likely won’t return until late December. In his place, freshman point guard Denis Clemente will start. Clemente has a world of talent and will likely replace Diaz or Hite as one of the Hurricanes’ primary weapons next season. For now, he must learn to play efficiently enough to get the ball to Hite and Diaz.
Although guards drive the Hurricanes, junior center Anthony King may be the most critical player on the floor. King is a defensive monster and can disrupt any team’s post game thanks to his natural ability to block shots. King also needs to become a more reliable option at the offensive end to keep defenses honest when they try to focus only on Diaz and Hite on the perimeter. To boost that effort, coach Frank Haith brought in freshmen forwards Brian Asbury and Adrian Thomas. Both will contribute this season and will be critical to developing a reliable post game.
Outlook:
Miami has two legitimate challengers for the ACC scoring title and a defensive guru in the middle. If the Hurricanes can get consistent play from the rest of the roster, this team should finish in the top six of the ACC. If Clemente can hold down the fort until Harris returns to the lineup, Miami could have the most dangerous backcourt outside Durham in the conference entering ACC play. The development of Miami’s frontcourt will determine the success of this year’s team as the backcourt carries them to a strong finish.
Prediction: Fifth
Virginia Tech Hokies (2004-05: 16-14, 8-8, tie 4th)
Starters:
Junior forward Coleman Collins
Sophomore forward Deron Washington
Junior guard Markus Sailes
Junior guard Zabian Dowdell
Junior guard Jamon Gordon
Schedule breakdown:
Despite finishing fourth in the conference, the Hokies missed the NCAA Tournament last season largely because of a weak non-conference slate. This season could become a repeat if Virginia Tech doesn’t take care of business against the likes of Radford, Western Carolina and Morgan State. The highlights of the non-conference schedule are at Ohio State and against Stanford in Las Vegas. The Hokies earn some credit for playing their hardest games away from home, but they probably need to get at least a split of those two games to become a serious NCAA Tournament possibility.
In conference, the Hokies draw a favorable schedule. They play Duke, Florida State, Virginia, Boston College and Clemson twice. If the Hokies take care of business against the weaker three, they probably would only need to win five or six other ACC games to reach the NCAA Tournament. The Hokies also get Georgia Tech, North Carolina and North Carolina State at home, so the schedule-makers basically gift-wrapped a top six ACC finish.
Key stretch: The tone for the Hokies’ season could be set early. Virginia Tech plays a brutal pair of road games against Ohio State and Duke. Then the Hokies return home to play North Carolina A&T and St. John’s before traveling to Sin City to play Stanford in the Las Vegas Shootout. The three marquee games are some of the Hokies’ most challenging games on their schedule. A win or two is mandatory for Virginia Tech to seriously contend for an NCAA invitation.
Roster notes:
Virginia Tech returns four starters, losing only graduating senior Carlos Dixon. But Dixon was the Hokies’ second-leading scorer and most reliable option. The Hokies shouldn’t lose a beat, however, because junior guards Zabian Dowdell and Jamon Gordon have a ton of experience and are comfortable in coach Seth Greenberg’s system, which emphasizes defense and efficient offense.
The Hokies also lost their top recruit from the 2004-05 class when guard Marquie Cooke transferred to Colorado State. Greenberg dismissed Cooke for conduct detrimental to the team. But on a team dominated by sophomores and juniors, the loss will not hurt much. Greenberg brought in five freshmen, though none are highly-regarded. Swingman J.D. Vassallo has the most potential to make an impact this season. Nevertheless, Virginia Tech has successfully turned mediocre recruits into solid basketball players. One of the Hokies’ primary backups in the frontcourt, sophomore forward Wynton Witherspoon, will miss the first half of the season to recover from a broken foot.
Like last year, the question for the Hokies will be who is going to produce on offense. The Hokies lack a dominant post presence. Sophomore forward Deron Washington is a budding star, but he plays bigger than his size. Teams with legitimate centers, like Duke and Wake Forest, should be able to expose this weakness. Therefore, the Hokies’ guards must carry the load at both ends of the court.
Outlook:
Virginia Tech exceeded all expectations last season, and this season the Hokies won’t sneak up on anyone. That means Virginia Tech must consistently play good basketball in the conference, which they didn’t do last season despite finishing 8-8. But because Greenberg returns the nucleus of last season’s team, the Hokies should be fine and emerge in the top half of the conference.
Prediction: Sixth
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (2004-05: 27-6, 13-3, 2nd)
Starters:
Senior center Eric Williams
Senior forward Chris Ellis
Redshirt freshman forward Cameron Stanley
Senior guard Trent Strickland
Senior guard Justin Gray
Schedule breakdown:
Coach Skip Prosser has Wake Forest set up to gather some experience in non-conference without facing many tests. The Demon Deacons’ toughest stretch is in mid-November, assuming the team plays in the finals of the Coaches vs. Cancer 2K Sports College Hoops Classic. The frontrunners of the feeder tournaments are Wake Forest, Texas Tech, Florida and Syracuse. The Demon Deacons would play two out of three of those teams if they make it to New York. Besides that tournament, the toughest non-conference opponents are Wisconsin and Charlotte, both of which will come to Winston-Salem.
To repeat in the ACC’s top three, the Demon Deacons will have to handle Duke, Georgia Tech, Boston College and North Carolina State, all of whom Wake Forest plays twice in addition to Clemson. Of the teams Wake Forest plays only once, the Demon Deacons have an advantage with North Carolina at home but must travel to Maryland and Miami with no return game.
Key stretch: Wake Forest will be able to gauge its standing in the ACC quickly. The Demon Deacons play Duke and Georgia Tech at home and Clemson, Maryland and North Carolina State on the road in the first five ACC games in early January.
Roster notes:
Wake Forest’s most significant loss from last season is point guard Chris Paul, the best point guard in the conference and arguably the nation. Without Paul, the Demon Deacons will hand the point guard duties over to senior guard Justin Gray, who is less comfortable running the point than he is dropping bombs on opponents from three-point territory.
In addition to Paul, however, Wake Forest also lost seniors Jamaal Levy, Taron Downey and Vytas Danelius, all of whom logged significant minutes last season. Levy and Downey were critical components to the Demon Deacons’ great run last season. Danelius never lived up to the potential he flashed during his sophomore season. But now the Demon Deacons need less experienced players to step up to replace their output.
The good news is that seniors Eric Williams and Justin Gray return, who were Wake Forest’s leading scorers last season. Fellow seniors Chris Ellis and Trent Strickland need to have big years now that their time has come to shine. A talented freshmen class will likely push for minutes by midseason and could play an integral role to a late season run.
Outlook:
Wake Forest will struggle early in the season to find balance and continuity until Gray becomes more comfortable playing point guard. If he doesn’t adjust, coach Skip Prosser can turn to one of his younger point guards, but young point guards typically struggle. Look for the Demon Deacons to be painfully inconsistent, especially on the road. This is a middle-of-the-pack ACC team, but a strong finish could propel the Demon Deacons to the NCAA Tournament.
Prediction: Seventh
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (2004-05: 20-12, 8-8, tie 4th)
Starters:
Sophomore forward Jeremis Smith
Sophomore forward Ra’Sean Dickey
Junior guard Mario West
Sophomore guard Anthony Morrow
Sophomore guard Zam Fredrick
Schedule breakdown:
Georgia Tech’s non-conference schedule lacks a bunch of marquee games despite four road games. But the one must-see game is the Yellow Jackets’ trip to Michigan State in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. If Georgia Tech pulls off that upset, the rest of the non-conference schedule should be a piece of cake considering the next most difficult games are at Georgia and at Air Force.
In conference, Georgia Tech has a rough schedule with two games against Boston College, Clemson, Maryland, North Carolina State and Wake Forest. Yes, the Yellow Jackets get Duke at home without a trip to Cameron Indoor Stadium, but Georgia Tech also plays road games at North Carolina, Florida State and Virginia Tech without return home games. The schedule could kill the Yellow Jackets’ hopes of finishing in the top half of the conference, which might likewise kill any hopes of returning to the NCAA Tournament. Because of a weak non-conference slate, the Yellow Jackets need to finish 9-7 or better in the ACC.
Key stretch: If you’re looking for one series of games that could make or break Georgia Tech’s season, you have to look to the end of January and beginning of February. After a home game against Maryland, the Yellow Jackets play three of four on the road against Boston College, Florida State and Virginia Tech, with a home game against Miami sandwiched in there.
Roster notes:
Outside North Carolina, no ACC team underwent more changes since last season than Georgia Tech. Like the Tar Heels, the Yellow Jackets will put an entirely new starting five on the floor this season. Key losses from last season include point guard Jarrett Jack, shooting guard Will Bynum and center Luke Schenscher.
But the cupboard is not bare. Coach Paul Hewitt had an excellent recruiting class last year, so sophomores Zam Fredrick, Anthony Morrow, Ra’Sean Dickey and Jeremis Smith will provide a solid core of starters. Hewitt still has senior forward Theodis Tarver to count on defensively. Tarver likely will log most of his minutes when Georgia Tech needs to establish a tougher, defensive mindset. In addition to the four sophomores, junior guard Mario West is a playmaker in the model of Isma’il Muhammad.
Hewitt brought in several talented freshmen who will provide most of the Yellow Jackets’ depth. Guard Lewis Clinch and forward Alade Aminu will likely see a lot of minutes this season. They will need to learn quickly to Hewitt the flexibility to rotate as many players as he likes to use.
Outlook:
The Yellow Jackets are one of several ACC teams that are going back to a youth movement after a season led by veterans. It’s tough to tell how quickly the kids will learn, but last season’s freshman class showed a lot of promise. The Yellow Jackets will probably struggle early to find consistency at both ends of the court. Fortunately, the non-conference schedule looks easy, so the Yellow Jackets should mesh enough to make a run at the middle of the ACC pack. But Georgia Tech will probably need a solid ACC tournament run to earn an NCAA Tournament bid.
Prediction: Eighth
North Carolina Tar Heels (2004-05: 33-4, 14-2, 1st)
Starters:
Freshman forward Tyler Hansbrough
Senior forward David Noel
Junior forward Reyshawn Terry
Freshman guard Bobby Frasor
Sophomore guard Quentin Thomas
Schedule breakdown:
Coach Roy Williams knew what he was doing when he built the schedule for this season. With a young, inexperienced team, Williams courted fewer high-profile opponents, and most of the tough ones come to Chapel Hill. The non-conference highlights are home games against Illinois, a rematch of the championship game, and Arizona. The Tar Heels also play Kentucky in Lexington. The only other road game is at USC.
In conference, the unbalanced schedule does the Tar Heels no favors. North Carolina plays two games against its designated rivals Duke and North Carolina State, which also happen to be two of the strongest teams in the ACC. The Tar Heels also play Miami, Virginia and Maryland twice. Once again, North Carolina’s only game against Wake Forest is in Winston-Salem. The one break is getting Boston College and Georgia Tech at home.
Key stretch: In late January through early February, the Tar Heels play four out of five at home against Boston College, Arizona, Clemson and Duke. The lone road game in that stretch is at Maryland.
Roster notes:
The bottom line for North Carolina is simple: This team resembles last season’s national championship squad in name only. Seniors Jawad Williams, Melvin Scott and Jackie Manuel graduated, while Raymond Felton, Sean May, Rashad McCants and Marvin Williams all left early to seek fame and fortune in the NBA. The lone returning players who gathered any meaningful playing time last season are senior forward David Noel, junior forward Reyshawn Terry and point guard Quentin Thomas. All three will likely start this year, but they are unknown quantities.
All is not lost for the Tar Heels this season, however, thanks to a talented and deep recruiting class. In fact, this year’s version of the Tar Heels is eerily similar to the first year of the Felton/May/McCants triplets under former coach Matt Doherty. Freshmen Tyler Hansbrough, Marcus Ginyard, Bobby Frasor, Danny Green and Michael Copeland will have to learn quickly. If the analogy holds true, North Carolina won’t drop off to the 8-20 disaster of a few years ago. But they may not finish much better than .500, as Felton, May and McCants managed in their first season, in which they had to play significant minutes.
With such little experience, the Tar Heels cannot afford injuries to anyone, but especially not Hansbrough, Noel or Terry in the frontcourt. Ginyard has already had a wrist injury, but it’s not serious and he shouldn’t miss any time.
Outlook:
The Tar Heels are going to struggle with inexperience at times this season. The conference lacks many elite teams, other than Duke, so North Carolina has an opportunity to move up the standings later in the year if the youngsters progress nicely. But don’t expect a national championship or deep post-season run: these Tar Heels will likely miss the NCAA Tournament.
Prediction: Ninth
Florida State Seminoles (2004-05: 12-19, tie 10th)
Starters:
Junior forward Alexander Johnson
Senior guard Andrew Wilson
Junior forward Al Thornton
Sophomore guard Jason Rich
Senior guard Todd Galloway
Schedule breakdown:
Florida State’s non-conference schedule is soft because the Seminoles don’t play a single ranked opponent. They play only two road games, although one is at Florida. The best match ups on this part of the schedule are against Purdue, Nebraska and Massachusetts. That’s not going to impress the NCAA Tournament selection committee come March.
The conference schedule also appears relatively soft as the Seminoles play Clemson, Miami, Virginia, Virginia Tech and Duke twice. Many of those games are winnable, but the Seminoles need to make a pretty strong conference showing to earn a trip to the NCAA Tournament. Road games against Boston College, Wake Forest and North Carolina State – without return games – could define the Seminoles’ season.
Key stretch: Like other ACC teams trying to get out of the cellar, a fast start is critical to the Seminoles’ success. Therefore, Florida State’s last game of 2005 and first four games of 2006 could determine whether the Seminoles will have a chance of finishing in the middle of the pack instead of in the basement. Florida State hosts Nebraska before traveling to Clemson, Virginia and Boston College during the next two weeks. The Seminoles also get Virginia Tech during that that stretch, one in which Florida State could easily go 4-1 or 1-4.
Roster notes:
Like Maryland, Florida State’s loss could turn into gain. The Seminoles biggest loss from last season is the departure of Von Wafer, who left early to join the NBA Draft. Wafer was Florida State’s only scorer to average in double-figures, but he often monopolized opportunities to score. Without Wafer, Florida State could have more balance on offense. In addition to Wafer, the Seminoles lost graduating senior Adam Waleskowski, who was third in scoring.
The Seminoles have a lot of experience returning, including seniors Todd Galloway and Andrew Wilson and juniors Alexander Johnson and Al Thornton. They also have balance in the frontcourt and backcourt and plenty of depth. The question for Florida State is whether the pieces will fit together to win games and score points. Senior point guard Galloway must orchestrate the offense by relying on Thornton and Johnson in the paint. By establishing a post presence, Florida State can create open looks for talented sophomores Isaiah Swann, Jason Rich and Ralph Mims.
As usual, coach Leonard Hamilton has a strong recruiting class led by forward Uche Echefu. By all accounts, Echefu has the skills to make an immediate impact and excel in the ACC. Two more forwards, Ryan Reid and Casaan Breeden, round out Hamilton’s latest class. With all the talent he’s importing, Hamilton better start winning or else the critics will have proof that Hamilton is a much better recruiter than coach.
Outlook:
The talent is there, but the cohesive energy is not. Hamilton better get this team headed north in the standings or else he’ll be heading out of town soon. This could be the season that people decide he’s not a great coach, and next season could he his last. On the other hand, if the Seminoles succeed this season and finish near the middle of the pack, Hamilton can claim that he simply needed a couple of years to get his type of players in the fold. A loss to North Carolina on the road will be the difference between cracking the top 10 and finishing among the bottom three.
Prediction: Tenth
Clemson Tigers (2004-05: 16-16, 5-11, 9th)
Starters:
Senior forward Akin Akingbala
Sophomore forward James Mays
Sophomore guard Cliff Hammonds
Senior guard Shawan Robinson
Junior guard Vernon Hamilton
Schedule breakdown:
By the look and feel of Clemson’s non-conference schedule, you’d think the Tigers are preparing to jump to the SEC. Like a few notorious SEC teams, the Tigers have a cupcake schedule with the likes of Bethune-Cookman, Coppin State and Wofford. The best games on the schedule are against South Carolina, Mississippi State (potentially, via the San Juan Shootout), and Georgia.
The ACC schedule features two games against Florida State, Georgia Tech, Virginia, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest. The pairings could be a lot worse. And the Tigers get three elite teams – Duke, Maryland and North Carolina State – in Clemson. The Tigers have an opportunity, based on the schedule, to surprise a few people and finish higher in the standings than some more celebrated ACC teams that have brutal conference schedules.
Key stretch: For a team like Clemson, the seemingly positive schedule could turn negative quickly if the team drops games it should win. Therefore, the early part of conference schedule is critical when the Tigers open ACC play at home against Florida State and also get Duke and Wake Forest at home in a two-week stretch. The road games during that time include Virginia and Miami. After five conference games, Clemson will quickly determine if it has a chance of playing the role of the surprise team of the year or merely reprising its role as late-season spoiler.
Roster changes:
Last season, the Tigers’ offense usually started and ended with graduating senior forward Sharrod Ford. The big man was Clemson’s most reliable offensive option and leading scorer on a team that often struggled to put up points. Without Ford and fellow graduating senior Olu Babalola, the Tigers have a gaping hole in the frontcourt. Also, promising freshman Cheyenne Moore opted to transfer after the season. So coach Oliver Purnell has some work to do with this roster.
The good news is that the Tigers’ backcourt is decent. Senior guard Shawan Robinson, junior guard Vernon Hamilton and sophomore guard Cliff Hammonds will comprise the nucleus of the starting lineup. Robinson and Hammonds are better shooters, while Hamilton has the most experience at point guard. With the team’s strength centered among short guards, Clemson is a worse version of the Miami Hurricanes, but the Tigers lack a defensive presence in the middle like the Hurricanes have. The most likely replacements for Babalola and Ford are senior Akin Akingbala and sophomore James Mays. Neither player is a dominant force, so opposing teams can focus on limiting the backcourt’s production while pounding the ball into the post when on offense.
Purnell brought in a decent though not highly lauded recruiting class, including forward Julius Powell and guards K.C. Rivers and Troy Mathis. Mathis and Rivers add depth to the Tigers’ strength at guard, but Powell could become a critical substitute in the frontcourt.
Outlook:
If Robinson, Hamilton and Hammonds play well, the Tigers could surprise a few opponents. But prepared teams should be able to handle Clemson throughout the season. This could be an important year for Purnell, who needs to start showing improvement at Clemson or else he could find himself on the hot seat sooner rather than later.
Prediction: Eleventh
Virginia Cavaliers (2004-05: 14-15, 4-12, tie 10th)
Starters:
Junior forward Jason Cain
Sophomore forward Adrian Joseph
Junior guard J.R. Reynolds
Junior guard T.J. Bannister
Sophomore guard Sean Singletary
Schedule breakdown:
For a team in the midst of rebuilding, the Cavaliers have a challenging non-conference schedule with games at Richmond, Arizona, Gonzaga and Western Kentucky. Virginia’s home games are not as tough, with the premier match up coming against Northwestern in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge.
In conference, Virginia gets Clemson, Florida State, Maryland, North Carolina and Virginia Tech twice. Although that may not sound as difficult as throwing in Duke and Boston College, the Cavaliers will likely struggle against all ACC opponents. The road games without return dates include Georgia Tech, Duke and North Carolina State.
Key stretch: The Cavaliers need to build some confidence entering conference play, but a rough start could doom the season early. Virginia must survive a stretch that includes games at Arizona, Georgia Tech and Gonzaga with home games against Northwestern and Fordham in between each road trip. The Cavaliers won’t win all of those games, but they must win at least two or else the team could lose faith too early in the season.
Roster changes:
The most significant changes to Virginia’s roster occurred on the sidelines. The Cavaliers dumped former coach Pete Gillen and hired Dave Leitao, who had led the Blue Demons for five years and apprenticed under Hall of Fame coach Jim Calhoun at Connecticut. Virginia officials tired of Gillen’s underwhelming squads and needed some fresh blood to infuse some energy in the Cavalier program, especially because the school invested a boatload of money into a new facility that will open next year. It will be nearly double in size compared with University Hall, and the students will be on top of the court. But if the Cavaliers don’t start winning, finding fans to fill those seats – and bring in money for the university – will be difficult.
So Leitao will embark on his first trip through the ACC with Gillen’s players and recruits and a lot of low expectations. That’s good, because all he can do is surprise people if the Cavaliers finish anywhere but in last. Three of the top five scorers from last season are gone, including graduating senior forwards Elton Brown and Devin Smith, who accounted for nearly one-third of the Cavaliers’ point production. Sophomore swingman Gary Forbes also bolted the program after Gillen left.
But Leitao does not lack talent altogether for this year. The Cavaliers have a solid backcourt led by sophomore point guard Sean Singletary, who started every game last season as a freshman and held his own against the likes of Chris Paul, Raymond Felton, Jarrett Jack and John Gilchrist. With that experience under his belt, Singletary may be the best point guard in the ACC entering this season. Also in the backcourt, juniors J.R. Reynolds and T.J. Bannister have the potential to put up a lot of points, but neither hits a high percentage of shots as they both shot well less than 40 percent from the field last season. Leitao desperately needs those guards to find the shooting touch to cover up some glaring weaknesses in the frontcourt.
For years, Brown and Smith were the inside presence at Virginia, with Brown clogging the middle and Smith slashing to the hoop. Now the Cavaliers must rely on unproven juniors Jason Cain and Donte Minter and sophomores Tunji Soroye and Adrian Joseph. Joseph flashed the most potential last season and wrestled the starting job away from Cain. Leitao needs to find the right combination of frontcourt players to survive against the better big men in the conference.
Virginia’s recruiting class is not stellar, a nice parting gift by Gillen. Forwards Laurynas Mikalauskas and Sam Warren are raw big men who need a lot of work. Swingman Mamadi Diane has potential, but the Cavaliers need more proven than potential talent entering this season.
Outlook:
The forecast is cloudy for Virginia in Leitao’s first season. This squad gave up on Gillen last season and are accustomed to losing. Leitao must teach these kids to play like winners. Singletary is a good starting point; he’s one of the better point guards and has a warrior’s mentality, meaning he should thrive under Leitao. The rest of the lineup is the question mark and expect them to struggle for much of the season.
Prediction: Twelfth
Final thoughts
With all ACC schools, the goal is to reach the NCAA Tournament and make some noise. Last season, five schools reached the tournament, and six if you count Boston College out of the Big East. Five of those six schools were seeded No. 5 or better, and North Carolina and Duke were both No. 1 seeds. Of course, North Carolina won the national championship, returning national supremacy to the ACC.
With many questions that need answers among the ACC’s 12, one sure thing is that the Tar Heels won’t repeat as national champions. In fact, the Tar Heels probably won’t make the NCAA Tournament simply because they’ll be locked in a jam in the bottom half of the conference. Outside the top four, the ACC has eight teams vying for probably only one NCAA spot, maybe two at most.
The top four are Duke, Maryland, Boston College and North Carolina State. Duke is head and shoulders above the rest. The other three could swap spots for spots No. 2 through 4. Injuries, suspensions and other unforeseen struggles could drop one of those schools out of the top four. But all four should make the NCAA Tournament and have the tools to make a run to at least the Sweet 16. All four could be Final Four participants, but only Duke is a bona fide national championship contender, unless Boston College can figure out how to shoot from three-point territory.
Among the rest of the ACC schools, Miami, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, North Carolina and Florida State will compete for one or two NCAA bids. Look for the Hurricanes to get that spot with a talented offensive attack and solid defense. But Virginia Tech, Wake Forest and Georgia Tech will be right there, so the Hurricanes need to beat those teams during the regular season and possibly during the first couple of rounds of the ACC tournament to wrap up a bid. North Carolina and Florida State are intriguing long shots. The Tar Heels have no experience but lots of talent. The Seminoles have no consistency but lots of talent.
In the end, this season will be as spectacular for Duke as last season was for North Carolina. That includes an ACC regular season title, No. 1 seed, plenty of praise throughout the season, and a national championship come April 3 in Indianapolis.
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