Ivy League Preview
Ivy League 2006-07 Preview
In some ways, the 2005-06 season was a typical one in the Ivy League: Penn and Princeton came out on top of everyone else. But the end result doesn’t tell the whole story.
No prognosticator figured the Tigers would be in the hunt for the title prior to Ivy League play. They were hardly a trendy pick in the preseason, then after some terrible showings in non-conference play, like scoring just 21 points in a loss to Monmouth and losing to Division III Carnegie-Mellon, some thought they might be lucky to win three or four Ivy League games. But once Ivy League play got going, so did the Tigers. They were in contention for the title right up until the final week of play.
Harvard was the trendy preseason pick to challenge Penn and got off to an excellent start in non-conference play before floundering shortly into the league slate. The Crimson received some national attention when they got some votes in one of the polls early on, and they had a good record coming out of non-league play that had many feeling that they could challenge the Quakers. But after a heart-wrenching home loss to Princeton, the Crimson were never the same the rest of the way and finished sixth.
Meanwhile, Penn rolled along to another Ivy League title with a 12-2 mark behind another big year from the stellar trio of Ibrahim Jabber, Mark Zoller and Steve Danley, as well as several other key contributors. It seemed like business as usual.
The 2006-07 season projects to be similar at the top, with the Quakers and Tigers battling it out again. But Yale can’t be written off, especially if they get through their tough non-league schedule in a good state. Cornell, Columbia and Brown aren’t likely to contend, but each could have a say in the outcome by playing spoiler.
Two coaching changes took place in the off-season, both of which were related. Glen Miller made the move from Brown to Penn after Fran Dunphy moved to Temple to replace the retired John Chaney, and Miller is replaced by Princeton alum and former Northwestern assistant Craig Robinson.
Ivy League Preseason Awards
Player of the Year: Ibrahim Jabber, Penn
Rookie of the Year: Zach Finley, Princeton
All-Ivy League Team
Eric Flato, Jr. G, Yale
Jim Goffredo, Sr. G, Harvard
Ibrahim Jabber, Sr. G, Penn
Noah Savage, Jr. F, Princeton
Mark Zoller, Sr. F, Penn
Penn (20-9, 12-2 Ivy League)
Projected Starters:
Sr. G Ibrahim Jabber (18.2 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 2.2 apg, 3.3 spg)
Jr. G Brian Grandieri (6.1 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1.8 apg)
So. F Tommy McMahon (2.9 ppg)
Sr. F Mark Zoller (12.7 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 1.5 apg, 1.5 spg)
Sr. F Steve Danley (8.9 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 2.9 apg)
Schedule Highlights: Known for playing tough non-conference schedules in part because of the Big 5, this season will be no different for the Quakers, who open with the BCA Invitational in Syracuse against UTEP. They also play Drexel, Monmouth and Fordham at home, with road games at Seton Hall and North Carolina. In Big 5 games, they get Villanova, Temple and Saint Joseph’s at the Palestra and head north to take on La Salle. In Ivy League play, a five-game home stretch in February gives them a chance to get on a hot streak.
Outlook: The Quakers have the most talent and experience, but they aren’t a slam dunk pick to win the league. Depth appears to be at a premium, especially after guard David Whitehurst was dismissed due to academics. Jabber, Zoller and Danley are all among the league’s best players and have done a lot of winning together, while Grandieri is a solid guard who blends in well with the others. McMahon looks most likely to step into the starting lineup after playing relatively limited minutes last season. How this team adjusts to new head coach Glen Miller is another factor; Miller got a lot out of his players at Brown, but there is always some adjustment when there is a coaching change.
Princeton (12-15, 10-4 Ivy League)
Projected Starters:
Jr. G Edwin Buffmire (4.8 ppg, 2.3 rpg)
Sr. G-F Justin Conway (8.8 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 3.1 apg, 1.7 spg in 13 games)
Jr. F Kyle Koncz (7.4 ppg, 1.9 rpg)
Sr. F Luke Owings (8.7 ppg, 2.7 rpg)
Jr. F Noah Savage (10.0 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 1.2 apg)
Schedule Highlights: The Tigers open up with seven road games before they see Jadwin Gymnasium, highlighted by the BCA Classic (with Loyola Chicago and possibly Ohio State) and the Pepsi Blue & Gold Classic (where they could play Marquette, the host). Lehigh, Rutgers and Rice highlight the non-conference home slate, while other good road games will be at Manhattan, South Carolina and Seton Hall. In Ivy League play, the schedule maker wasn’t very kind to the Tigers in the beginning, as their first four games are on the road as part of a five-game road swing (with Seton Hall in the middle).
Outlook: It was a tale of two seasons last year for the Tigers, who bring back most of that team. The one starter they lose, Scott Greenman, won’t be easy to replace, but they have plenty of options that start with Buffmire and Conway. Savage leads a frontcourt that must do better on the glass, where they posted the worst rebounding margin in the league by far last season. Along with Owings and Koncz, they can score and be part of the offense, but they must rebound better, and none has a great deal of size. Adding size is 6’9″ freshman Zach Finley, who could get good minutes early on. Twelve players played in at least ten games and averaged over 11 minutes per game last season, so the Tigers have plenty of personnel options.
If the Tigers are to take the next step, they must not only rebound better, but also improve at the defensive end, where opponents shot better than 45 percent from the floor against them.
Yale (15-14, 7-7 Ivy League)
Projected Starters:
Jr. G Eric Flato (11.3 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 2.9 apg, 1.2 spg)
Jr. G-F Nick Holmes (5.4 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.7 apg)
Jr. G-F Caleb Holmes (7.3 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 1.6 apg)
Sr. F Casey Hughes (7.7 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 1.9 apg, 1.2 spg)
Sr. F Sam Kaplan (10.6 ppg, 3.4 rpg)
Schedule Highlights: James Jones is known for testing his team in non-conference play, and that will be the case again this season. Six home games are highlighted by Patriot League contenders Bucknell, Holy Cross and American, while the road games have some tough opponents: Ohio, Dayton, Wagner, UMass and Boston College. In Ivy League play, they start with three of four on the road, with their first home weekend being against Penn and Princeton.
Outlook: Last season, the Bulldogs showed signs that they could be a contender this season, as only one senior is gone from that team. While that player is Dominick Martin, the holdovers are experienced and capable. Flato really came along last year and may be primed for a big year if he continues that improvement. The Holmes twins had their moments, but they need to shoot the ball more consistently than they did last season. Sophomore Chris Andrews showed promise off the bench last season and classmate Travis Pinick should see some time on the wing as well. Freshman Alex Zampier will add depth. Hughes is the best athlete in the league, while Kaplan was bothered by injuries last season but has all-league potential. Both will need to improve on the glass if the Bulldogs are to repeat their positive rebounding margin. Matt Kyle has good size but has to earn more minutes, while Ross Morin, who showed promise last season as a freshman, basically supplanted him. Freshman Josh Davis should figure into the mix as well.
The Bulldogs shot better than any other Ivy team, but turnovers hurt that as no team turned it over more. They played good defense as well. The pieces are there to contend, but it will be tough to get past Penn and Princeton.
Cornell (13-15, 8-6 Ivy League)
Projected Starters:
So. G Adam Gore (12.9 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 1.3 apg)
Sr. G Graham Dow (4.8 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 2.9 apg)
So. F Brian Keefer (3.1 ppg, 1.5 rpg)
Sr. F-C Jason Hartford (7.7 ppg, 3.8 rpg)
Sr. F-C Andrew Naeve (6.9 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 1.2 apg, 1.4 bpg)
Schedule Highlights: The Big Red has a mix of home and away games in non-conference, along with an appearance in the William & Mary Tournament in early December. Highlights include road dates with Northwestern (opener), Lehigh and Iowa and home games against Bucknell and Albany. They open Ivy League play at home, and have a tough stretch of four road games in a row in mid-February.
Outlook: Steve Donahue has done very well to make this team as consistent as it has been the last couple of years, as they have been a tough out and have finished around the top half each year. While three starters are back from a team that had a good season, the Big Red don’t have the depth they’ve had, although there is a veteran unit. The experience, along with super sophomore Gore, should keep them around the top half of the league. Gore was the top freshman last season and becomes the go-to guy this time around, and he’ll certainly be better if the senior tandem of Hartford and Naeve is a good offensive presence. As it is, they are fine on the defensive end and the boards. Dow should run the show capably like last season. The Big Red will need some contributions from freshmen if they are to stay in the top half of the league.
Brown (10-17, 6-8 Ivy League)
Projected Starters:
Sr. G Marcus Becker (6.8 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 2.8 apg)
Jr. G Damon Huffman (10.8 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 2.0 apg)
Jr. G-F Keenan Jeppesen (11.1 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 1.8 apg, 1.9 spg)
So. F Scott Friske (8.2 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 1.2 apg)
Jr. F-C Mark MacDonald (7.3 ppg, 4.0 rpg)
Schedule Highlights: The non-conference slate certainly won’t be a cakewalk for the Bears, who open at Michigan State in the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic and have just three home games. After that, road games at Providence, Northwestern (Craig Robinson’s former school), Wagner, Rhode Island, Albany and SMU are highlights, as well as an appearance in the Flint Hills Resources Classic in Texas. Three of the first four Ivy League games are on the road, but they have four straight at home in mid-February.
Outlook: The Bears struggled mightily in non-conference play, especially at the offensive end, then came alive later in Ivy League play. They have almost everyone back, but also have to adjust to a new coach in Robinson, who promises to run a variation of the Princeton offense. Becker will capably run the show, while Huffman struggled shooting for a while last season but is capable of hitting from long range. Junior Mark McAndrew is the only other guard with experience, as freshmen Steve Gruber and Matt Jones could also see time on the perimeter and sophomore Chris Skrelja will mainly see time at small forward. Jeppesen blossomed last season and figures to be better, along with Friske, a tough competitor who could become of the league’s better forwards this season. MacDonald is steady inside and leads a frontcourt with some size, as seniors Nathan Eads and Sam Manhanga, the latter of whom can score but must cut down on fouls, will also figure into the mix.
There is some continuity on the roster, but a new head coach always means an adjustment. The Bears could be a dark horse if the transition goes smoothly and players like Friske and MacDonald blossom, as is possible.
Columbia (11-16, 4-10 Ivy League)
Projected Starters:
Jr. G Justin Armstrong (10.4 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 1.7 apg)
Jr. G Brett Loscalzo (5.1 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 3.1 apg, 1.1 spg)
Jr. G Mack Montgomery (5.7 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.3 apg)
Jr. F John Baumann (13.7 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 1.5 apg)
Jr. F Ben Nwachukwu (10.5 ppg, 5.4 rpg)
Schedule Highlights: The Lions open with two straight events, starting with Duke and either Georgia Southern or UC-Davis in the College Basketball Experience Classic in Durham and then hosting the Tyler Ugolyn Columbia Classic. Road dates with Providence, St. John’s and Lehigh look to be the toughest ones after that. In Ivy League play, they will have a chance to get some early momentum as the first three games are at home, including Penn and Princeton to open.
Outlook: Joe Jones has this team making progress as he enters his fourth season at the helm. Five players from his first recruiting class comprise the likely starting lineup, so they have a good deal of experience playing together. The frontcourt is the strength of the team, as Baumann and Nwachukwu are a good combination that can score and rebound, helping the Lions post the best rebounding margin in the league by far last season. Baumann, who also pitches for the baseball team, plays a little more away from the basket, while Nwachukwu should develop into one of the league’s top rebounders. They should get a boost from sophomore Joe Bova, who did not play last season due to injury, and freshman Michael Gately. Armstrong and Montgomery could be capable scorers on the wing, which would make the inside game more dangerous. Sophomore K.J. Matsui can shoot it from long range. Loscalzo takes care of the ball at the point, though he isn’t a big scoring threat. Sophomore Kashif Sweet and four freshmen guards could figure into the mix as well.
The Lions will need to take better care of the ball when someone other than Loscalzo has it, as only Yale turned the ball over more last season. If they do that and get the good balance from the post and wings at the offensive end, they could move up in the standings.
Harvard (13-14, 5-9 Ivy League)
Projected Starters:
Sr. G Jim Goffredo (14.9 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 1.3 apg, 1.4 spg)
So. G Drew Housman (10.0 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 3.0 apg, 1.5 spg)
So. F Evan Harris (3.3 ppg, 1.9 rpg)
Sr. F Brian Darcy (2.0 ppg, 1.7 rpg)
Sr. C Brian Cusworth (13.3 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 2.1 bpg)
Schedule Highlights: It’s a typical non-conference slate in many respects for the Crimson, with six home games on tap. All but two home games are against other New England schools (Lehigh and Albany, both good opponents, are the only outsiders), with Maine and Holy Cross leading the way. They also have tough road games at Vermont and Providence, and close out the non-conference slate on the west coast at UC-Irvine. In Ivy League play, they have five straight games at home after opening at Dartmouth, which will give them a chance to establish something early.
Outlook: Last season looks to have been the chance for the Crimson in a while to contend for the title. Now they go on without all-Ivy League selection Matt Stehle and will only have Cusworth for the first semester. That means it’s time for players like Harris and upperclassmen Darcy and Brad Unger, who also pitches for the baseball team, to be productive inside. Harris is active and has potential, and will get more of a chance to show it. Sophomore Kenyon Churchwell, who was hampered by injuries last season, should get a chance as well. The backcourt is in better shape among the starters, as Goffredo blossomed into one of the league’s top scorers last season and Housman should only get better after a freshman season where he had good moments but also turned the ball over. The two played another summer together in California and will have even more of a rapport this season, and head coach Frank Sullivan likes what he sees from his floor leader. There isn’t a lot of proven depth in the backcourt, but Sullivan is high on freshman Jeremy Lin, who could see minutes at the point backing up Housman or even pushing him off the ball occasionally.
It will be a challenge for the Crimson to be near the top in rebounding margin again, but cutting down on turnovers, where they tied for the second-highest total in the league last season and were still second in scoring, is even more paramount. They also can’t afford to let opponents shoot nearly 45 percent from the field against them again.
Dartmouth (6-21, 4-10 Ivy League)
Projected Starters:
Sr. G Leon Pattman (10.9 ppg, 3.2 rpg)
Jr. G Michael Giovacchini (7.2 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 1.9 apg)
Jr. F Chuck Flynn (5.5 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 1.4 apg)
Jr. F Jonathan Ball (5.1 ppg, 2.6 rpg)
Sr. C Paul Bode (3.0 ppg, 3.6 rpg)
Schedule Highlights: Six home games are on tap in non-conference play, including one against UNH after their first two Ivy League games. A number of road games will be difficult, notably Massachusetts, George Washington, Kansas and Vermont. After their two early games against Harvard, they play four straight Ivy League games at home and none are against Penn or Princeton, so they have a chance to put together a few wins before embarking on the brutal Penn/Princeton road weekend to start four straight road games.
Outlook: The Big Green looked like a better team than they showed for much of last season, and we’ll see now if that really is the case. Giovacchini capably ran the show and Pattman is their best scorer, but he didn’t always play his best ball. Flynn and Ball can both get better, while lanky sophomore wing Alex Barnett showed some potential as a shooter and might crack the starting lineup at some point. The post players have decent size and skills, but seem to come up a little short at both ends of the floor. Where the big men especially don’t shine is on the glass, as for all their size, only Princeton was out-rebounded more last season.
Improvement may come this season, but it doesn’t seem likely to much. There just isn’t quite enough talent, especially in the frontcourt, to make that kind of progress just yet.
League Outlook
As in past seasons, the Ivy League race appears to be relatively simple: Penn and Princeton, with one dark horse. Yale is that dark horse this time around, and the Bulldogs will be well-tested prior to Ivy League play. The middle of the pack could go a few different ways, with a few teams being capable of playing spoiler for contending teams.
The Quakers aren’t clear favorites with a coaching change and depth being a question mark. How they adjust to Miller on the sideline will be a key to their season. If they should fall short, Princeton and possibly Yale could be right there waiting to grab the top spot.
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