Patriot League Preview
Patriot League 2006-07 Preview
The Patriot League has been on a nice rise the last few seasons, one that has certainly been aided by postseason success. The Bucknell Bison have won an NCAA Tournament game each of the past two seasons, while Holy Cross has had success in the NIT after the two teams had some epic battles prior to the postseason. The Bison earned the best seed ever by a Patriot League team last season when they were a No. 9 seed.
While most around the league feel that the rise has been aided by all teams improving, especially once the move was made by schools to give athletic scholarships (Lafayette became the last to do so starting with this year’s freshman class), the top teams have certainly carried the Patriot League in this time. The last six seasons, the NCAA Tournament representative has been either Holy Cross (2001-03), Lehigh (2003-04) or Bucknell (past two seasons). Meanwhile, the teams at the bottom of the league win very few games in Patriot League play.
The 2006-07 season looks to be more of the same, especially at the top. But the picture is far from clear as to who will emerge victorious, and there’s a sleeper that will have a say in American, as the Eagles return their top 12 scorers from last season’s team and clearly improved as the season went along. All three teams picked at the top have question marks: Bucknell has winning experience but their two departed starters won’t be easily replaced, Holy Cross could have health questions, and Lehigh will be looking to a freshman point guard to run the team. Meanwhile, American’s big question is if they can continue their improvement and take the next step.
The league’s rise should continue this season, even if slightly, and it certainly wouldn’t be a surprise if two teams made postseason play once again. Who will be there, and what postseason success they may have, are the big questions.
Preseason Awards
Player of the Year: Keith Simmons, Holy Cross
Rookie of the Year: Marquis Hall, Lehigh
Defensive Player of the Year: Abe Badmus, Bucknell
Primed to Break Out: John Griffin, Bucknell
All-Patriot League Team
Andre Ingram, Sr. G, American
Chris McNaughton, Sr. C, Bucknell
Jose Olivero, Jr. G, Lehigh
Keith Simmons, Sr. G, Holy Cross
Torey Thomas, Sr. G, Holy Cross
Bucknell (27-5, 14-0 Patriot League)
Projected Starters:
Sr. G Abe Badmus (6.6 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 3.9 apg, 2.0 spg)
Jr. G John Griffin (3.9 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 1.1 apg)
Jr. F Darren Mastropaolo (3.7 ppg, 3.6 rpg)
Sr. F Donald Brown (6.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.1 apg)
Sr. C Chris McNaughton (12.8 ppg, 4.7 rpg)
Schedule Highlights: The non-conference slate won’t be easy, especially with just Wake Forest and Northern Iowa plus the BracketBusters game at home. The Bison open at Albany and later play at Saint Joseph’s, Penn State, Xavier and Texas Tech. They also take on George Mason in Washington, D.C. (BB&T Classic) and could get Marist in the finals of the Marist Classic. Five of the first seven Patriot League games are at home, giving them a chance to get off to a quick start. They’ll get an early gauge as to whether they’ll be in good shape to defend their title, hosting American in the second game and traveling to Holy Cross for the third.
Outlook: The Bison may be favored, but it’s by a slim margin and intangibles go a long way in this. They return a veteran team that has done a lot of winning the past two seasons, a battle-tested group that won’t go down easily. That said, they lost two key scorers in Charles Lee (whose all-around game won’t be replaced) and Kevin Bettencourt, meaning that several players have to pick up the scoring. Badmus is a solid floor leader at both ends but isn’t a scorer, while Griffin might be the player they need the most improvement from. McNaughton has never dominated in the post like a seven-footer could in this league, but he’ll score with his moves and touch away from the basket. Brown is athletic and steps into the starting lineup, but he’ll need to improve offensively, as will Mastropaolo. The Bison have developed good depth in recent years in getting contributions from freshmen, even in relatively limited minutes.
The Bison will surely play the same stifling defense that has been their staple, and they’re a good bet to take care of the ball like they did last season. Those will go a long way towards another league title, which is certainly within their grasp.
Holy Cross (20-12, 11-3 Patriot)
Projected Starters:
Sr. G Torey Thomas (11.0 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 4.8 apg, 2.4 spg)
Sr. G Keith Simmons (14.2 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 1.5 apg)
So. F Colin Cunningham (3.7 ppg, 2.5 rpg)
So. F Alex Vander Baan (6.2 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 1.2 apg)
Jr. C Tim Clifford (7.8 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 1.5 bpg)
Schedule Highlights: The Crusaders pulled off a rare feat in getting three of their four non-conference home games to start the season. They open with Fairfield, Hampton and Siena. Later, road games include Syracuse, Dayton, Duke, and Providence, and they also get George Mason across town from campus in what is considered a neutral site game. Six of the first nine Patriot League games are at home, with an early gauge of where they stand coming on January 13 when they host Bucknell.
Outlook: The Crusaders have enough pieces returning to contend for the title, starting with the best backcourt in the conference in the ultra-quick Thomas and Simmons, who had a breakout year despite battling health concerns along the way. If Pat Doherty makes a smooth return from an injury that cost him last season, they will be in good shape in the backcourt. After the frontcourt looked like a question mark last year, it appears to be in good shape now thanks largely to the continued good strides made by Clifford, who should be one of the conference’s top big men if he becomes a better rebounder. Vander Baan and Cunningham are capable players who now have a season under their belt. The freshmen all will get a chance to contribute as well.
A tough non-conference schedule will have the Crusaders battle-tested for Patriot League play. There hasn’t been much separating them and Bucknell the past two seasons, and the gap may have closed. If they stay healthy, the Crusaders have a good shot at the title.
Lehigh (19-12, 11-3 Patriot)
Projected Starters:
Fr. G Marquis Hall
Jr. G Jose Olivero (17.1 ppg, 3.2 rpg)
Sr. G-F Kyle Neptune (11.1 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 1.7 apg)
Jr. F Bryan White (6.7 ppg, 5.4 rpg)
Sr. C Jason Mgebroff (3.7 ppg, 2.4 rpg)
Schedule Highlights: The Mountain Hawks have six non-conference home games, two against non-Division I schools. They open up at the Basketball Travelers Classic at Oregon, then later go to Notre Dame, Princeton, Miami, Rutgers and Northeast contender Monmouth. In Patriot League play, a road stretch of Bucknell, Holy Cross and American in late January could provide the most telling sign of where this team will end up.
Outlook: The success of the Mountain Hawks may hinge on a freshman, as they need Hall or someone else to take over at the point. If Olivero has to handle the ball, that will hurt the offense since it takes him away from focusing on scoring, and this is not a team with a lot of it as only two Patriot League teams scored less last season. Hall is a capable floor leader, so how he adjusts to playing at the college level will tell the story. Neptune is one of the best energy players in the conference and another key part of a good perimeter unit. White gets the job done down low, while Mgebroff needs to improve if they are to compete with the top two teams. Freshman Zahir Carrington, another part of a good recruiting class, looks to be the best newcomer in the frontcourt and should help at both forward spots.
The Mountain Hawks’ solid defense will give them a chance, but some improvement is needed at the offensive end. That will all start with Hall or someone else other than Olivero emerging as a consistent floor leader.
American (12-17, 7-7 Patriot)
Projected Starters:
So. G Derrick Mercer (7.6 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 3.8 apg)
Sr. G Andre Ingram (12.0 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.8 apg)
Sr. G Linas Lekavicius (6.9 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 2.4 apg, 1.4 spg)
Sr. F-C Brayden Billbe (8.1 ppg, 4.8 rpg)
Sr. C Paulius Joneliunas (6.3 ppg, 3.8 rpg)
Schedule Highlights: The Eagles play five non-conference home games, four in the first month. A challenging road slate includes Richmond, Xavier, Yale, Maryland and Virginia (alma mater of head coach Jeff Jones and all three assistants). Patriot League play opens with two tough road games at Lehigh and Bucknell, but they finish with four of six at home.
Outlook: This is the sleeper team, a very experienced group that returns almost everyone from last season’s team and has good balance. Mercer should only get better after a good freshman season that featured occasional growing pains, while Ingram probably won’t repeat his struggles shooting the ball. Lekavisius and sophomore shooter Garrison Carr will also be key players on the perimeter, with Carr capable of lighting it up from long range. Billbe and Joneliunas lead a solid, unspectacular frontcourt that adds Georgetown transfer Cornelio Guibunda.
If they are to contend, the Eagles need to improve their defense, especially against teams with shooters since they allowed opponents to shoot 39 percent from long range. They also need to take better care of the ball, which should happen since this team has a full year of playing together.
Colgate (10-19, 4-10 Patriot)
Projected Starters:
Sr. G Jon Simon (9.3 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 1.5 apg)
Jr. G Kyle Roemer (11.4 ppg, 3.4 rpg)
Jr. G Kyle Chones (5.8 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 1.4 apg)
Jr. F Kendall Chones (8.4 ppg, 4.3 rpg)
Sr. C Marc Daniels (3.3 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 1.0 bpg)
Schedule Highlights: The non-conference slate has seven home games, including five in a row starting in late November. The road slate includes Syracuse, Arizona State, a BracketBusters game, and an appearance in the Cable Car Classic in Santa Clara starting with the host school. In Patriot League play, the Raiders get a tough four-game stretch early: on the road at American, Lehigh and Bucknell, then home against Holy Cross.
Outlook: The Raiders should certainly improve, but contending looks to be a long shot unless they improve markedly on offense. The perimeter trio of Simon, Roemer and Kyle Chones is a good place to start. Roemer can score and Simon can run the show, but the latter needs to take better care of the ball after having more turnovers than assists last season if he is to replace the departed Alvin Reed. Both are also capable of shooting better, although senior reserve Dan Gentile is the designated sniper in the group. The frontcourt is capable on the boards, though they still need to improve there as neither starter led the team in rebounds. If they don’t improve offensively, the Raiders’ best hope to win will be better defense, an area in which they were okay last season but could be better.
Lafayette (11-17, 5-9 Patriot)
Projected Starters:
Sr. G Marcus Harley (5.0 ppg in four games)
Sr. G Jamaal Hilliard (7.4 ppg, 3.7 rpg)
Jr. G Bilal Abdullah (9.9 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 2.3 apg)
Jr. F Ted Detmer (5.5 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 1.4 apg, 1.8 spg)
Jr. C Everest Schmidt (5.1 ppg, 4.1 rpg)
Schedule Highlights: The Leopards are in the NIT Season Tip-Off early on, playing at Indiana and possibly getting Notre Dame or Butler. Then they come home to play Saint Joseph’s in the first of six non-conference home games (two against non-Division I schools). They also get Princeton at home, while notable road games include Miami, Temple and San Diego State. Patriot League play doesn’t look to have any overly brutal stretches, although they get Bucknell and Lehigh back-to-back on two occasions.
Outlook: Injuries and poor defense were the thorns in the Leopards’ side last season, and both are keys with many of those players returning on this experienced team. Harley played in just four games while Hilliard battled a nagging leg injury, and if healthy, they team with Abdullah to form a perimeter unit that will score some points. There is some depth there as well on the offensive end. Detmer and Schmidt are serviceable in the frontcourt, and should get a boost from two members of the school’s first-ever scholarship class, Marek Koltun and Andre Hines.
Besides defense and rebounding, the Leopards need to improve in taking care of the ball as only one team in the league turned the ball over more last season. That would certainly help in the event that they don’t improve defensively.
Navy (10-18, 3-11 Patriot)
Projected Starters:
Jr. G Corey Johnson (9.5 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 3.0 apg, 1.7 spg)
So. G Kaleo Kina (10.4 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 3.4 apg, 1.3 spg)
Jr. G Greg Sprink (14.9 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 2.0 apg)
So. F Adam Teague (4.7 ppg, 2.6 rpg)
Jr. C Ben Biles (1.1 ppg, 1.8 rpg)
Schedule Highlights: The Midshipmen, who open with Loyola (Md.) and then play either North Florida or St. John’s in the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic, play seven home games in non-conference, including four straight in December. Two home games are against non-Division I schools, with Penn being the most noteworthy opponent. Road games include Villanova and Georgetown. In Patriot League play, a three-game road stretch in January and a three-game homestand in February highlight the slate.
Outlook: The Midshipmen are a young bunch this year, as the roster has just one senior, little-used Calvin White, and plenty of freshmen and sophomores. That means this season is a key developmental one, especially at the point since Johnson and Kina need to cut down on turnovers as they helped the team lead the league in that category. Both can score along with the sharp-shooting Sprink, ensuring that the Middies will remain near the top in the league in scoring after leading in that category last season. The X-factor may be the development of freshman Derek Young, as he could take over the point and let Johnson and Kina become scorers first. The frontcourt needs to keep developing, and may get a boost from two freshmen, Trey Stanton and Bobby Fenske.
Army (5-22, 1-13 Patriot)
Projected Starters:
Sr. G Marshall Jackson (2.2 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 1.4 apg)
Sr. G Matt Bell (13.0 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 2.7 apg)
Jr. G Jarell Brown (14.3 ppg, 2.6 rpg)
Jr. F Corban Bates (5.7 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 1.2 apg)
Sr. C Jimmy Sewell (1.9 ppg, 2.3 rpg)
Schedule Highlights: The Black Knights open the season with the John Thompson Foundation Classic in Missouri, where they play Stetson, North Carolina A&T and the host Tigers. Seven of the next 11 games are at home, with back-to-back road games at Notre Dame and Michigan included. The Patriot League schedule has them playing each team in the same order both times through, with a three-game homestand in January and a three-game road stretch highlighting it.
Outlook: The Black Knights have four starters back, but don’t expect a huge jump in the standings as their most glaring weaknesses are at the key positions: the point and the middle. They struggled to take care of the ball at the point, posting the worst turnover margin in the Patriot League, while the post players aren’t the best rebounders save for Bates. Bell and Brown can certainly score, but someone needs to run the show and that looks to be Jackson, who started all 27 games last season. Their defense isn’t bad, but it’s not good enough to cover up the offensive issues or the fact that they force far fewer turnovers than anyone else.
Two of the Black Knights’ five wins last season were against non-Division I teams, so they’ll need to win more games at this level before they have the look of a contender.
League Outlook
A couple of old faces are favorites in Bucknell and Holy Cross, but they aren’t alone. Lehigh will have something to say about the league race, and American is the X-factor with their experience. All in all, the top four are a pretty solid pick, with the top two being an even call to go either way and it wouldn’t be a complete shock if Lehigh or American was right there contending at the end of the season.
The schedule could play a role in how things play out with the top teams. Bucknell and Holy Cross each open up with a number of early home games, while American has a couple of tough road games in the early going. The Bison and Crusaders went a combined 13-1 at home in Patriot League play last season, so the early home games give them a chance to get some momentum and possibly put some distance between themselves and other teams. One thing that is for sure is that the games between the top four should all be close, well-played games as they have been over the last few seasons.
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