Horizon Notebook – CSU Loses Wisconsin Two-Step for the Two-Seed

CLEVELAND -  Even in the context of Butler’s home scare at the hands of Detroit a week ago Saturday, we suggested in this space that everyone else in the Horizon is already playing for second.  (We’ve also suggested more than once that the deepest line in the sand is between the double-bye and home semi-final game to be awarded the second seed and the two extra games the third seed must play in the conference tourney).  Coming into the weekend just past, with Butler a perfect 5-0, Wisconsin-Green Bay and Wisconsin-Milwaukee each had one loss, Cleveland State had two, and Wright State had three.  And predictably, Butler stayed perfect, taking care of business this weekend in Chicago, beating Loyola and Illinois-Chicago;  also predictably, Wright State took care of business in its lone game at Detroit, still stuck on three losses.  So there was Cleveland State on its annual brutal trek through Wisconsin, needing two wins to be tied for second and a split to stay close;  it got neither.  So now the preseason favorite Vikings wake up in Cleveland at 4-4 and in fifth place, three full games and the head-to-head tiebreaker behind Milwaukee for second.

It was a better trip offensively than CSU had the right to expect, as finally shoot-first point guard Cedric Jackson was able to contribute at that end of the floor.  21 points at Green Bay on Thursday (7-12, 4-5 from the arc) and then 17 points (7-13) to go with 10 assists and 7 boards Saturday in Milwaukee.  And even with J’Nathan Bullock scoring 22 and 19 in the two games, CSU’s improved offense could not overcome its poorest defensive weekend of the season.  The Vikes lost 80-65 to Green Bay in a game not nearly that close, and after a furious comeback form nineteen down in the last five minutes in Milwaukee, they lost by two 77-75, when a Trevon Harmon trey rimmed and came out with less than two seconds remaining.  It has been that kind of year for the Vikings.

Needless to say, under Gary Waters CSU is known for its tenacious, stifling pressure defense, and coming into the weekend the Vikings had held 6 of their previous 10 D-I opponents to 50 points or less.  So one would have thought that 65 points in Green Bay and 75 in Milwaukee would have been enough to win at least one of those games, and maybe both.  The problem:  while CSU’s defense can grind you down over forty minutes when the Vikings have the lead, when they’re behind it becomes a reaching, lunging and fouling defense, risking everything for steals, and thus vulnerable against good teams to back-door cuts, guard penetration and lots of open jump shots.  Now, playing that kind of 100% style (as opposed to the aggressive but under control style made famous by late 70s and 80s Indiana teams and played these days by Butler and Wright State), the results can be, well, inconsistent.  The game can become a schoolyard game, and for short periods CSU can make steals and make hay against its opponent.  Witness the last 5 minutes at Milwaukee, and a similar stretch during the last 8 minutes of the first half at Green Bay, during which the Vikings returned from the dead to tie that game at the half.  In the long run, however-at least against quality opponents-playing defense that way is pure suicide, allowing a team that might have scored 55 or 60 against the Vikings to score 70 or more.  And with CSU’s poor perimeter shooting on offense, that difference is just too much to overcome.  Thus, two losses in the Wisconsin snow.

Now in the race for second, all is not utterly lost for the Vikings.  Coach Gary Waters having said that the regular season Horizon winner will have four or more losses, even if Butler doesn’t the rest of the teams in the league should, or at least could.  So, if freshman Trey Harmon improves, and sophomore D’Aundray Brown returns from his rib injury, the second half of the conference schedule is more favorable for the Vikings.  Home and home with Youngstown State (Jerry Slocum’s Penguin team is pretty darned tough at home), all three teams the Vikes are chasing for second still to play at home in Wolstein Arena, and then a season-ending rematch with Butler at Hinkle on Saturday February 28.  And both one-loss Wisconsin teams yet to play Butler at all.  So if Butler should beat Green Bay and Milwaukee twice, and if Wright State beats one or both of the Wisconsin teams on their trips to Dayton, and if CSU makes those Wisconsin schools’ trips south as miserable as they did to the Vikes going north, well, CSU can still be heading for Indianapolis for that February 28th game with a shot at the second seed, and with more to play for that day than the Bulldogs.  But first they need to right the ship with a win at Youngstown State this Friday night, a game the Vikings must win to stay in the hunt for second.  To do that they better be ready to stop YSU second guard Kelvin Bright, who has scored most of his 14 points per game on his home floor.

Horizon News and Notes:

• Both Green Bay and Milwaukee get their first looks at Butler’s freshman class this week, Green Bay playing at Hinkle on Thursday at 7 pm eastern, and Milwaukee playing there on Saturday at 2 pm eastern.
• Cleveland State plays at Youngstown State in this Friday night’s 9 pm eastern ESPNU game.
• To date still playing without Vaughn Duggins, Wright State faces Illinois-Chicago at home on Saturday night, that game to tip at 7 pm eastern.  If Duggins is ready to play this weekend, he’ll get a home warmup Thursday night against Loyola, and then face UIC.  If he’s not ready to play this weekend, expect Coach Brownell to announce a decision to redshirt him some time next week.