Horizon Notebook – Looking Towards the End Game

Everybody’s doing it.  Everybody denies it, but everybody’s doing it.  No, not THAT… and not THAT.  Reviewing the schedule, deciding what games we’re sure to win, what games we have little hope to win, and what games can go either way.  At this time of the year, every coaching staff in America is scrutinizing its remaining schedule.  Can we win our conference?  Can we get a conference tournament bye?  Can we get an at-large bid to one tournament to another?  Can we be .500 in conference?  Can we get to 20 wins?  Can we beat anybody?  On the three staffs I was on we told our players to focus on the next opponent, the kid each of our kids was about to guard, how to win tonight.  But we couldn’t help ourselves, so we scrutinized and scrutinized.  And by this point in the season, ESPN commercials notwithstanding, most of the games are in the first and second category (games we really should win, games we really can’t win), and relatively few are in that all-important third group (games that can truly go either way).

In the Horizon, it is more apparent with each passing week that Butler is even better than it was last year, by far the best.  Absent major injury or major miracle, the Bulldogs should not be beaten in conference.  And while the late Al McGuire hated relying on freshmen, Gordon Hayward and Shelvin Mack simply are not like any other freshmen to come on the mid-major scene in recent memory, perhaps not like any pair of freshmen at this level, ever.  (Two nights ago ESPN2′s wonderful studio analyst Hubert Davis called Duke’s 6-8 sophomore forward Kyle Singler the best player-or the most valuable-in the ACC, and this writer has previously called Gordon Hayward “a freshman version of Singler, except that Hayward rebounds better”).

At the other end of the spectrum, I have thought all along that Ray McCallum’s Detroit Titans would win a game in conference, probably at home, though they missed the opportunity I’d circled on New Year’s Day hosting Youngstown State.  Back in the “first division,” Green Bay, Milwaukee, Wright State and Cleveland State should win the rest of their games against everyone else except Butler (what WSU gives up in personnel to the other three, it makes up with superb half-court defense and coaching), but the remaining games among those four should all be competitive.

That said, this writer was shocked by not one but two monstrous upsets this past weekend in the Horizon, upsets with huge impacts on the standings (on what I’ve called the “race for second”).  First on Thursday night, while this writer was in Indianapolis watching Butler dispatch Wisconsin-Green Bay, the other one-loss Wisconsin team, that hailing from Milwaukee, was visiting Homer Drew’s 2-6 Valparaiso team.  Still  playing without sophomore forward Benjamin Fumey (who had arthroscopic knee surgery the previous day), but with Erik Buggs and D’Andre Haskins back from the injury list, the Crusaders played their best defensive game of the year, upsetting the Panthers 63-51.  Valpo forced 20 Milwaukee turnovers, held the Panthers to 29% shooting (24% in the second half), and held three Milwaukee starters-Ricky Franklin, Avery Smith and Anthony Hill-scoreless for the game.  Senior Jake Diebler dominated the game offensively, scoring 19 on 7-13 shooting, including 5-9 from the arc.  No longer concussed but still diminutive freshman Erik Buggs contributed 14 (on 6-10 shooting) and seven huge rebounds.  And not a moment too soon, senior Urule Igbavboa finally went to the boards, grabbing 9 caroms.  The thrashing by Valpo may have had a lingering effect, as Milwaukee was never in the game two days later, falling at Butler 78-48.  The true impact of Valpo’s beating on Milwaukee’s collective psyche will be revealed on Wednesday, when the now three-loss Panthers return home to face eminently beatable Loyola.

Perhaps less surprising to readers of this space, but more so to a national television audience on ESPNU, was the result on Friday night when Cleveland State visited Youngstown State.  Having witnessed YSU’s hard-nosed eight point home loss to Butler on December 6th, and having called sophomore swingman Vytas Sulskis-recently ensconced in Coach Slocum’s doghouse-and junior second guard Kelvin Bright, respectively, “a poor man’s Gordon Hayward” and “a poor man’s Shelvin Mack,” this writer expected a spirited effort by the Penguins in defense of their home court.  What I didn’t expect was yet another subpar defensive effort by Cleveland State, witnessing no Viking except Norris Coles (guarding Bright) defend hard or well.  In the first half, YSU junior forward Sirlester Martin dominated a game played at the Penguins’ preferred pace-slow–scoring 10 of YSU’s 29 points (on 5-9 shooting) and grabbing 5 rebounds.  Martin having shown the way, Penguin senior center Jack Liles joined the first half party, contributing 8 points (on 4-7) and 6 boards, and YSU led by 4 at the break, 29-25.

CSU’s defense was no better in the second half, and while J’Nathan Bullock’s effort kept them close (Bullock finished with 19 points and 14 rebounds), the Vikings could never pull even on the scoreboard.  Remarkably, the Vikes showed little interest in increasing the pace YSU controlled.  And oddly, instead of pressing for much of the game, CSU employed a passive “triangle and two” for a stretch (one of the “two” was Kelvin Bright, second leading scorer in conference play coming into the game-but no Michael Jordan-and at least at one point, the other one of the “two” was low-scoring Tom Parks).  Finally, at the 17:54 mark of the second half, down by 6, the Vikings went to full-court pressure, and while they forced two turnovers the rest of the way and were able to pull within 2, the change-of-pace proved too little too late, and the Vikings fell 64-60.  While the differences on the stat page were Penguin forwards Martin and Liles (15 on 7-13 for Martin with 9 boards, and 18 on 7-11 for Liles with 6 boards), the game was controlled and won by Penguin Coach Jerry Slocum, who got everything he could have hoped for from a roster not nearly as strong as his opponent’s.

The loss was devastating to Cleveland State, as even coming off an oh-for-Wisconsin trip the previous weekend, the 4-4 Vikings still had second place and the coveted double-bye squarely in their sites coming into the game.  Green Bay and Milwaukee had each lost for the second time the night before, and Milwaukee still had Butler to play twice (they then lost in Indianapolis on Saturday);  the Vikings had both Wisconsin schools and Wright State all coming to Wolstein Arena in the second half of the conference season (and only Butler among first division opponents away);  and defender/rebounder/all-around hustler D’Aundray Brown on the mend, soon to return from injury.  Only a visit to the lowly Penguins was asked of them before returning home to the friendly confines.  But those pesky Penguins had other ideas, and instead of being 5-4 and just two games behind with a favorable schedule, the Vikings are 4-5 at the turn, with no reasonable chance for that coveted second spot.   Oh, what might have been.

Horizon News and Notes:

• Separated by just 70 miles, at least from the Youngstown State perspective Cleveland State could be their biggest rival, and 6,249 screaming Penguin fans contributed to Friday’s upset, the fourth largest crowd ever in Beeghly Center.
• If you’ll indulge me, having seen my share of Big Five games in Philly’s Palestra, and having watched the discontinuation of the “Basketball Beanpot” in Boston some years ago, wouldn’t it be wonderful if Northeast Ohio’s four D-Is-two in the MAC and two in the Horizon-were to institute some kind of regional competition for bragging rights.  That would require each team to play both of the schools in the other conference once (presumably one at home and one away), in addition to the home-and-home games within the respective conferences;  the best record among the four would win some kind of cup or trophy.  The fans of the four schools would love it, and I suspect help fill one another’s gyms.
• Continuing on that theme, in the wake of its upset of CSU, YSU played an unusual late January non-conference game Monday night, hosting Akron in Beeghly.  In front of barely ¼ of the audience three nights earlier, the Pens were unable to sustain their terrific play, falling to the improving Akron Zips 67-63.  For three quarters of the game YSU got little from its forwards, and Akron got little from its guards.  But Akron’s guards began contributing something-barely something–midway in the second half, and YSU’s forwards never did.  Senior Nate Linhart led the Zips with 15, on 6-11 shooting, and 9 rebounds;  Chris McKnight added 13, mainly on late game free throws, and also had 9 boards.  Junior YSU guard DeAndre Mays led all scorers in a losing cause with 18, on 7-14 including 2-5 from the arc, and had 8 boards, and Martin pulled down 11 rebounds for the Pens.
• With each pair of conference teams yet to play each other a second time (and Cleveland State and Akron not currently playing one another at all), here are the current standings for Northeast Ohio’s unofficial “Lake Erie Cup”:
  • Akron:  2-0
  • Cleveland State:  1-1
  • Kent State:  1-2
  • Youngstown State:  1-2
  • Of course, in addition to remaining games in which Akron visits Kent State and Youngstown State visits Cleveland State, it is possible that conference foes will meet in their respective conference tourneys (or even that one of these four will meet another-some day-in the NCAA Tourney, the NIT or the CBI).  Yes, the “Lake Erie Cup.”  (Of course, a regional sponsor will quickly gobble this up, making it the “Key Bank Cup,” or the “NCB Cup.”  On the other hand, the way things have been going lately, maybe I shouldn’t wait by the phone for any bank or brokerage to be calling…).