Mountain West Conference 2009-10 Season Preview

Once again the teams of the Mountain West Conference will be fighting for credibility on the national stage. It won’t help that 13 of the 15 all-conference players from last year have moved on, representing at least the top player from every team. There aren’t many household names remaining, but that doesn’t mean that the MWC won’t be competitive or have a good influx of new talent.

UNLV and San Diego State will benefit the most from transfer players from big-name programs, including Kentucky, UCLA and Illinois. And as for freshman, these two teams also share much of the wealth. UNLV’s four-star shooting guard Anthony Marshall and San Diego State’s forward, Kawhi Leonard, the L.A. Times California Player of the Year, will challenge one another for Freshman of the Year honors.

The league does have stability in the coaching ranks, with all nine teams returning their head coaches. BYU coach Dave Rose is coming off successful treatment for pancreatic cancer and should be an inspiration to his players. Jim Boylen at Utah and Steve Alford at New Mexico enter their third seasons in the MWC. They both shared a piece of the conference title last year with BYU and will be shooting for the top once again. Tim Miles at Colorado State and Jeff Reynolds at Air Force are also in their third seasons, but they will continue to bring up the rear this season.

With a lot of unknowns this year, there are five teams with a decent shot at challenging for the conference championship. BYU gets the early season edge as they have only one significant loss in their roster. San Diego State may be the most talented, but how soon can their talented transfers and freshmen play as a cohesive team? And UNLV, New Mexico and Utah aren’t far behind. This all sets up for another exciting year of Mountain West Conference men’s basketball.

All MWC First Team

Jimmer Fredette, G, BYU

Tre’Von Willis, G, UNLV

Jonathan Tavernari, F, BYU

Malcolm Thomas, F, San Diego State

Zvonko Buljan, C, TCU

Honorable Mentions: Carlon Brown, Utah; Roman Martinez, New Mexico; Afam Muojeke, Wyoming; Chace Stanback, UNLV; Billy White, San Diego State

Player of the Year

Jimmer Fredette, BYU

Newcomer of the Year

Malcolm Thomas, San Diego State

Freshman of the Year

Kawhi Leonard, San Diego State

Team Projections

1. BYU Cougars

2008-09 record: 25-8, 12-4 MWC (Tie 1st place)

Projected starting five:

Jackson Emery, Jr. G

Jimmer Fredette, Jr. G

Jonathan Tavernari, Sr. F

Chris Abouo, So. F

Chris Miles, Sr. C

Lee Cummard (17 points, 6 rebounds) is gone but the rest of the BYU squad remains intact. This gives them a big advantage as far as team chemistry and consistency are concerned. It also helps to have two of the best players in the conference suited up on their side. And with the team rallying around Coach Dave Rose and his battle with cancer, the Cougars are poised for another title run.

Guard Jimmer Fredette is an exciting playmaker who can get his own shot or set up a teammate. He leads all returning players with 16 points and 4 assists per game a year ago. His ability to drive the lane and score easy baskets or get to the foul line was a difference-maker for BYU last year. His backcourt partner will once again be Jackson Emery, who has an average of eight points in 28 minutes per game. He also made the all-defensive team with 47 steals and handed out 100 assists. This tandem will be as strong as any they face all year.

Senior Jonathan Tavernari is one of the league’s best shooters, averaging 38 percent on three-point shots and scoring 16 points per game as a junior. He also has international experience, having played on the Brazilian national team.

Chris Miles is the anchor in the middle. His 6-11 size is sufficient to go up against the other tall centers in the conference. He shoots well from close range but doesn’t need to be a big scoring threat for this team to succeed.

Filling in the only missing piece in the starting lineup will likely be sophomore Chris Abuou. He had a few shining moments last season and will be called upon for production and consistency this year with the increase in playing team. He will share time with freshman Tyler Haws, regarded as one of the best prep players in Utah history. Haws is joining the team following the completion of his church mission.

Schedule
Key out of conference games:
Nov. 13 vs. Bradley
Dec. 8 vs. Arizona State

Dec. 22 at Nevada

Dec. 28 at Arizona

A very talented, experienced and emotionally engaged BYU team will be tough to beat on the road and nearly impossible to beat at home. Look for them to recapture the conference crown and win at least one game in the NCAA tourney at the end of the season.

2. San Diego State Aztecs

2008-09 record: 26-10, 11-5 MWC (4th place)

Projected starting five:

D.J. Gay, Jr. G

Tyrone Shelley, So. G

Billy White, Jr. F

Malcom Thomas, Jr. F

Brian Carlwell, Jr. C

This is one of the deepest teams in Aztecs history, even though there are a lot of new faces to bring into the fold this season. Coach Steve Fisher, now entering his 11^th season at San Diego State, said that he has 10 players who all think they should start. And this is on the heels of the Aztecs’ 26-10 run last year that took them to the final four in the NIT.

In the backcourt, junior combo guard D.J. Gay will be tasked with running the point. This is the one area where the Aztecs are lacking in depth, as coveted point guard recruit Eric Lawton didn’t qualify. His backup will likely be freshman Chase Tapley, who was the California D-III player of the year. Tyrone Shelley, who led Pepperdine in scoring two years ago as a freshman, is the front-runner for the shooting guard position.  While more of a scorer than a pure shooter, Shelley will absorb some of the impact from the graduation of seniors Kyle Spain and Lorenzo Wade.

Guard Kelvin Davis received a medical redshirt for another season as he was diagnosed with Hodgkin’s disease and underwent treatment that caused him to sit out much of last season. He was honored by the U.S. Basketball Writers Association with the Most Courageous Award last spring. His presence adds experience, outside shooting and an emotional lift.

Forward Malcolm Thomas was Shelley’s teammate at Pepperdine two years ago and should be a starter from day one. He is regarded as an NBA prospect, who will help the team in rebounding, shot-blocking and scoring. Billy White returns as a very athletic player who can play either forward position. He excels on the defensive end and is very efficient on offense, making 66 percent of his shots down low. Tim Shelton is coming off another knee surgery and will see limited minutes early in the season. Frenchman Mehdi Cheriet joined the Aztecs last season via Arizona Western junior college. He will take a redshirt this season.

For the first time in many years, the Aztecs have themselves a true center in 6-10, 296 lb. Illinois transfer Brian Carlwell. He looked surprisingly mobile in practice and shouldn’t inhibit the Aztecs desire to run. At the same time, he could be a defensive stopper in the middle.

Schedule
Key out of conference games:
Nov. 16 at St. Mary’s

Dec. 12 vs. Arizona
Dec. 19 at Arizona State

Dec. 22 at Drake

If the chemistry of all the newcomers can come together quickly, the Aztecs will be dangerous this season. They have the talent to be even better than last year’s team, which was one of the best in San Diego State history.

3. UNLV Runnin’ Rebels

2008-09 record: 21-11, 9-7 MWC (5th place)

Projected starting five:

Tre’Von Willis, Jr. G

Derrick Jasper, Jr. G

Oscar Bellfield, So. G

Chace Stanback, So. F

Matt Shaw, Jr. F

The Runnin’ Rebels finished a disappointing fifth last season as they seemed to run out of gas late in the year. Coach Lon Kruger appears to have upgraded the talent level with a couple of transfers and a freshman that should make an immediate impact and enable them to compete for the top spot once again.

Tre’Von Willis will get some help in the backcourt, but the Rebels lose Wink Adams, who was the leader of this team for the previous four years. Help will come in the form of Derrick Jasper from Kentucky after the 6-6 guard spent last season rehabilitating from knee surgery. Reports are that he is explosive and ready to go. Oscar Bellfield had a promising freshman season and a solid 2-1 assist-to-turnover ratio that should earn him more minutes.

Another high-profile transfer, forward Chace Stanback from UCLA, should make up for the loss of Rene Rougeau and Joe Darger. He’s got a solid outside jumper and can play the post and grab rebounds too. If Matt Shaw recovers well from knee surgery, he could provide much needed size and rebounding down low. If not, the Rebels will look to Brice Massamba to fill the role.

And keep an eye out for 6-3 shooting guard Anthony Marshall. It’s a crowded backcourt already, but if Marshall can get some playing time, he has a chance to be one of the top freshmen in the conference.

Schedule
Key out of conference games:
Nov. 21 vs. Southern Illinois

Nov. 28 vs. Louisville
Dec. 2 at Arizona
Dec. 12 vs. Kansas State

Don’t be surprised if the Rebels go with a three-guard lineup and use their athleticism to wear down and speed past opponents. They will be competitive as always, but I think they’ll have trouble getting past BYU and San Diego State.

4. New Mexico Lobos

2008-09 record: 22-12, 12-4 MWC (Tie 1st place)

Projected starting five:

Dairese Gary, Jr. G

Phillip McDonald, So. G

Roman Martinez, Sr. F

Chad Toppert, Sr. F

Daniel Faris, Sr. F

Even though the Lobos tied for the conference regular season crown last season, they were the odd team out in a three-way tie and when invitations were given for the Big Dance, all they got was the NIT. And this on the heels of going 24-8 the previous season and being left out of the NCAA tournament. You would think that a Steve Alford team would get a little more respect.

The Lobos lose their go-to guy and one of the best all-around players in the conference last season in Tony Danridge. The previous year it was J.R. Giddens. This season it looks as though senior forward Roman Martinez is ready to take over the leadership reins. While not as flashy as his predecessors, he has a solid all-around game and maturity that is needed for this team.

Guards Phillip McDonald and Dairese Gary both averaged more than 20 minutes per game last season and should play more prominent roles in the offense in the upcoming campaign. Gary will run an up-tempo offense from the point and look for McDonald on the wing.

Junior college transfer Darrington Hobson should provide some scoring punch as a well-rounded offensive threat. Curtis Dennis can shoot from distance and could help replace Chad Toppert, who was deadly from the three-point line.

The Lobos waited two years for big man Isaiah Rusher to become academically eligible but then dismissed him from the team in July. That leaves the team really thin in the middle. Sophomores Will Brown and A.J. Hardeman will likely share minutes and be pushed by freshman Matt Staff.

Schedule
Key out of conference games:
Dec. 2 vs. California
Dec. 19 vs. Creighton
Dec. 29 vs. Texas Tech

Jan. 1 vs. Dayton

The Lobos appear to be a middle-of-the-pack team this season, without any superstars and without much height. The Pit always gives them a solid home court advantage, but they will be hard pressed to duplicate the same success on the road.

5. Utah Utes

2008-09 record: 24-10, 12-4 MWC (Tie 1st place)

Projected starting five:

Luka Drca, Sr. G

Carlon Brown, Jr. G

Jordan Cyphers, So. F

Kim Tillie, Sr. F

Jason Washburn, Fr. C

The Utah Utes may have been hit hardest by players graduating, but Coach Jim Boylen has done an excellent job of implementing his defensive-minded system in his first two years and his team will definitely rebound and run and battle for 40 minutes.

The loss of 7-2 center Luke Nevill will change the dynamics. So will the loss of three additional players (Shaun Green, Lawrence Borha and Tyler Kepkay) who all averaged 10 points or more per game last season. With 70 percent of last season’s production now gone, how will the Utes respond?

Look to Carlon Brown, a highlight reel player, to fill up the stat sheet. He’ll need to be more disciplined and team focused, but he can develop into a big-time scorer. Senior guard Luka Drca is a three-point scoring threat, averaging 38 percent from beyond the arc. Without Nevill in the middle, the Utes figure to get more of their points outside the paint.

On the wing, look for sophomores Jordan Cyphers and Jace Tavita to battle for more playing time this year. Down low, redshirt freshman Jason Washburn appears to be the frontrunner to replace Nevill. Junior college transfer Matt Read as well as 7-3 David Foster will also get a chance.

Kim Tillie was a starter last year but didn’t play starter’s minutes. He’ll need to this year and to improve upon his 3 points and 4 rebounds per game for the Utes to be more competitive.

Schedule
Key out of conference games:
Nov. 27 at Illinois
Dec. 9 vs. Michigan

Dec. 12 vs. Oklahoma

Jan. 2 at LSU

This looks to be a rebuilding year that will focus on experienced guard play and defense to keep them in games. Utah never slips too far so a middle of conference finish and an invite to the NIT sounds about right.

6. Wyoming Cowboys

2008-09 record: 19-14, 7-9 MWC (6th place)

Projected starting five:

JayDee Luster, So. G

Thomas Manzano, So. G

Afam Muojeke, So. F

Boubacar Sylla, So. F

Adam Waddell, So. C

Brandon Ewing had a tremendous four-year career as a starter for Wyoming. The rest of the conference will breathe a sigh of relief when they step on the court and he’s no longer wearing the brown and gold. Had the Cowboys been a more successful team during his tenure, he would have been player of the year multiple times.

But all is not lost. Freshman of the year Afam Muojeke returns, having beefed up in the off-season. Muojeke will be the focus of the offense in Ewing’s absence and is one of the rising stars in the conference.

New Mexico State transfer JayDee Luster hasn’t played a minute for the Cowboys but has already been named team captain. He will lead the team from the point guard position. He is lightning quick getting up and down the court and should keep them in an up-tempo offense. Luster will be joined in the backcourt by junior college transfer Thomas Manzano, who averaged 26 points per game in the national JC tournament.

In the frontcourt, Adam Wadell started to emerge last season as just a freshman. The eligibility of Auburn transfer Boubacar Sylla should enable the Cowboys to clog up the middle. Another big man, Djibril Thiam adds a shot-blocking ability and a rebounding presence to the mix.

Schedule
Key out of conference games:

Nov. 29 vs. Pepperdine
Dec. 15 at Tennessee

Dec. 23 at Northern Iowa

The Cowboys have put together a very winnable out-of-conference schedule that will help their confidence and should enable them to go into conference play with a solid record. But conference play will prove to be much tougher, especially as they go on the road.

7. TCU Horned Frogs

2008-09 record: 14-17, 5-11 MWC (7th place)

Projected starting five:

Ronnie Moss, So. G

Greg Hill, Jr. G

Edvinas Ruzgas, Sr. F

Garlon Green, Fr. F

Zvonko Buljan, Sr. F

So who did TCU lose this year? Kevin Langford, of course. Langford was their top scorer and playmaker. But it was Zvonko Buljan who was the big surprise a year ago and is a great piece to build on in the upcoming season. Buljan was the MWC Newcomer of the Year and has a non-stop motor. He is a relentless rebounder and a dangerous inside scorer.

Second-year coach Jim Christian can also build around guard Ronnie Moss, who followed him from Kent State and started as a freshman. Moss averaged 10 points and should see that go up this year. Edvinas Ruzgas is an outside shooting threat from the wing position and is poised for a solid senior season.

Junior college transfer Greg Hill may be their best three-point option so he will challenge for playing time at the shooting guard position.

Garlon Green, younger brother of Dallas Maverick forward Gerald Green, should see the court early and often. He is a highly athletic player who should be able to make an impact in a variety of ways.

Schedule
Key out of conference games:
Nov. 21 at Nebraska
Dec. 8 vs. Texas Tech

Dec. 12 at Wichita State

The Horned Frogs are headed in the right direction and should pull a few upsets this season. They have yet to establish a home-court advantage. That is something that is essential in this conference and will be one of the keys to lasting success of the program.

8. Colorado State Rams

2008-09 record: 9-22, 4-12 MWC (8th place)

Projected starting five:

Harvey Perry, Sr. G

Dorian Green, Fr. G

Andre McFarland, Jr. F

Andy Ogide, Jr. F

Mame Bocar Ba, Sr. F

Well, four conference wins is better than none the previous year, but Coach Tim Miles is finding the turnaround at Colorado State to be quite a challenge. The Rams lost seven of their final eight games, and they no longer have the services of leading scorer Marcus Walker.

Forward Andy Ogide is the leading scorer among returning players, averaging 10 points along with 6 rebounds per game. Another junior forward, Andre McFarland will need to make a big contribution as well.

Guard Jesse Carr had a promising freshman season in the backcourt. Unfortunately he sustained an injury in the spring that may keep him out for the first part of this season. Injuries ended the playing career of Dan Vandervieren, who had one year of eligibility left and have called into the question the playing ability of Minnesota transfer Travis Busch.

The Rams usually have an ample supply of solid big men, but this year’s stable is looking a little light. Mame Bocar Ba saw limited minutes last season. Hopes are focused on 7-0 freshman center Trevor Williams to be the big man of the future.

Schedule
Key out of conference games:
Nov. 15 at Oregon

Dec. 10 vs. Colorado
Dec. 22 at UCLA
Dec. 28 at Fresno State

Look for about a similar season as the last one. The Rams will win a few conference games and go down to the wire on a few more. In the end, they are still short on talent and experience to make a more impressive run.

9. Air Force Falcons

2008-09 record: 10-21, 0-16 MWC (9th place)

Projected starting five:

Evan Washington, Jr. G

Avery Merriex, Sr. G

Taylor Stewart, So. F

Grant Parker, Sr. F

Sammy Schafer, So. C

Andrew Henke, the last remnant of the Air Force teams that won 20 plus games, has now graduated. The Falcons lose their top three scorers in Henke, Anwar Johnson and Matt Holland, and it isn’t clear how this last place team will show any improvement this season.

Evan Washington is one of the more consistent and productive players on this year’s roster, but he only averaged 7 points per game. Avery Merriex got his first start in the MWC tournament last season and hopefully can build on that experience to provide help in the backcourt.

Air Force has more size than usual this year, but that doesn’t necessarily fit with their perimeter-based scheme with lots of motion. Sammy Schafer has legitimate size for a center and can take up space in the middle. Grant Parker can pull down rebounds as well and should be a more productive scorer this season.

Schedule
Key out of conference games:
Dec. 5 at Missouri State

Dec. 12 at Washington State

For a military school that can’t recruit JC players, it’s difficult to turn things around very quickly. This doesn’t look to be their year.

MWC Summary

This may be a year in transition for the Mountain West. Few teams are loaded with senior leadership, although there is talent in the younger classes. BYU has the most proven success among returning starters, so they are the team to beat. If San Diego State and UNLV can gel quickly with their transfers and freshman, then they have the talent to challenge BYU for the top spot.

It looks like another two-bid season for the MWC in the NCAA tourney with another couple of teams landing in the NIT.