Bracket Breakdown: Pac-10’s Struggles Will Benefit Mountain West, Atlantic 10

With the Pac-10 experiencing more upheaval than the conference has had in 20 years, it’s increasingly likely that the Pac-10 won’t field more than one team in the NCAA Tournament if California wins the conference’s automatic bid.

Since 1989, the Pac-10 has had no fewer than three bids in the NCAA Tournament, and that only happened twice. In the past three tournaments, the Pac-10 has placed six teams in the field. With the sudden decline of traditional powerhouses such as Arizona and UCLA, a couple other conferences stand to benefit, specifically the Atlantic 10 and Mountain West.

Entering the final weekend of January, only one Pac-10 team, California, has an RPI better than 50. And Cal’s solid computer profile — an RPI of 18 — largely depends on the second toughest schedule in the country. But the Golden Bears have fared poorly against those tough teams, losing all four games against top 50 opponents. Only half the conference has any wins against teams in the RPI top 50.

Besides California, every other Pac-10 team has significant hurdles to overcome. The second-place team, Arizona, already has nine losses and is only two games better than .500. The Wildcats probably need to win eight or nine of their final 10 conference games to have a legitimate shot at the NCAA Tournament. Part of the problem is that with so many struggling teams, it’s hard for a team like Arizona to notch any résumé-building victories.

Meanwhile, the Mountain West has four teams in contention for at-large bids. BYU is 20-2 and has an RPI of 22.  The second-place team, New Mexico, is 19-3 and has a higher RPI, at 11. UNLV and San Diego State also are in the top 50 and figure to remain in the at-large discussion until Selection Sunday. In existence since 1999, the conference has never fielded four teams in the NCAA Tournament.

On the East Coast — and Midwest and Southeast — the Atlantic 10 Conference, which has 14 teams, looks ever stronger. The conference’s pre-season favorite, Dayton, sits at seventh place entering the final weekend of January. The Flyers match the Pac-10’s best, California, with a 14-6 record, but Dayton has two wins against teams in the RPI top 50. The team’s non-conference strength of schedule is excellent at No. 20, and the best win is against surging Georgia Tech. No offense to the Ohio Valley Conference’s premier program, but California’s best win is against Murray State on opening day. If you had to pick right now, whom do you want in the NCAA Tournament — California or Dayton?

Besides the Flyers, Temple, Xavier, Charlotte and Rhode Island all have compelling arguments for automatic bids. Temple has the best victory of any team in the Atlantic 10, Mountain West or Pac-10 with an upset of Villanova — the Wildcats’ only loss entering the last weekend of January.

So while the Pac-10 could flirt with one-bid conference status, several strong teams in the Atlantic 10 and Mountain West are poised to seize an opportunity to grab more automatic bids for two non-power conferences. Based on the Pac-10’s performance this season, it’s hard to consider it a power conference on par with the ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten and SEC.