Bracket Breakdown: Big East Flirts With Greatness

When it comes to determining the best conference in the country, almost any measure is subjective. Mathematically objective, the RPI is a blunt tool that doesn’t provide much insight about a conference’s overall strength, especially from top to bottom.

However, the percentage of conference teams invited to the NCAA Tournament is a good indicator of a conference’s strength.  Another barometer of conference strength should be the number of teams with losing records that receive at-large bids.

That metric would go hand-in-hand with the percentage of teams in the tournament. Logically, if a 12-team conference gets seven teams in the tournament, at least one team is likely to have a losing record in conference play. If seven teams in the conference had at least a .500 conference record, it would mean the bottom of the conference is weak, and the top teams simply had beaten up on those cellar dwellers and split games among the rest. This season, the Big Ten exemplifies that profile. Iowa, Indiana and Penn State are abysmal and have combined for 10 conference wins. Meanwhile, six of the 11 teams in the misnamed Big Ten have at least a .500 conference record.

However, a conference like the Big East is a different beast. All but two of the conference’s 16 teams have at least five wins in Big East play entering the final week of the regular season. Eight teams have .500 or better Big East records and eight teams are worse than .500. And one of those teams with a .500 or better record is Notre Dame, which likely sits on the wrong side of the bubble.

Come Selection Sunday, at least two Big East teams could make the NCAA Tournament as at-large teams with a losing conference record. That’s a big deal because it has happened only 29 times since the NCAA Tournament expanded in 1985. Eight teams in the past decade have reached the tournament with losing conference records, including Arizona and Maryland last season. According to the latest Mock Tournament, there are eight teams flirting with records that generally don’t deliver at-large bids:

• Connecticut (17-12, 7-9)
• Louisville (19-10, 10-6)
• Illinois (18-11, 10-6)
• Cincinnati (16-12, 7-9)
• Notre Dame (19-10, 8-8)
• South Florida (17-11, 7-9)
• Seton Hall (16-11, 7-9)
• Minnesota (17-11, 8-8)

Besides the six Big East teams, two Big Ten teams, Illinois and Minnesota, appear on the list because they have a lot of overall losses. Since 1985, only 18 teams have earned an at-large bid with 13 losses or more, and no team has ever reached the tournament as an at-large team with 15 losses. Of those eight teams, the latest Mock Tournament has the top four in the field. Based on averages since 1985, only one of those eight teams should reach the field if they can’t avoid the 13-loss/sub-.500 threshold.

With two games remaining in the regular season, several of these teams figure to enter the danger zone. And that doesn’t count their conference tournaments, in which none of these teams is expected to cut down the nets and earn an automatic bid. So that will add another loss to most of these teams’ overall records.

It’s a logical conclusion that any team that reaches the NCAA Tournament with a losing conference record or 13 or more losses overall represents a powerful conference. Their inclusion would signify that the selection committee respects the conference highly. Indeed, those six Big East teams have 12 wins against the RPI top 25, mostly against the Big East elite. They have proven they can beat the best teams in the country, many of which come from their conference.

The ACC is the only conference to field two teams with losing conference records in the NCAA Tournament in the same season. If the Big East can match that feat, which seems likely, the conference will be poised to proclaim that it has had one of the best seasons in history.

Of course, when the dust settles and there are four teams heading to Indianapolis, the Big East’s season will only be considered one of the best ever if the conference has at least one representative in the Final Four.

Bracket Breakdown: You Be the Judge, Big East Style

With the addition of Cincinnati, DePaul, Louisville, Marquette and South Florida in 2005, the Big East evolved into a super-conference. Seven of the 16 members have national championship banners hanging in the rafters, and the conference’s teams have collectively been to 43 Final Fours. South Florida is the only member that has never reached the Final Four.

This season, the Big East is once again poised to have a fantastic NCAA Tournament and will likely put more teams in the tournament than any other conference. Entering the final weekend of February, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia, Georgetown and Pittsburgh are locks to make the tournament. In addition to those five powerhouses, eight other Big East teams have a legitimate shot at reaching the NCAA Tournament. But the bubble will invariably burst for some of those teams.

The eight teams competing NCAA Tournament bids are:

• Cincinnati
• Connecticut
• Louisville
• Marquette
• Notre Dame
• Seton Hall
• South Florida
• St. John’s

Check out their profiles below, and pick four teams to reach the NCAA Tournament. Then check out the latest Mock Tournament to see which teams we project to reach the field as of Feb. 26. The answer key for the team profiles is below.

Team A (Overall: 17-11, Big East: 7-8)

RPI: 40
Strength of schedule:  2, non-conference SOS: 5, conference SOS: 32
Record vs. RPI top 50: 3-6
Losses to teams outside RPI top 100: 2
Record in neutral/road games: 3-8
Best wins (teams listed by RPI): vs. 5, at 8, vs. 22, vs. 52, vs. 57
Worst losses (teams listed by RPI): at 148, at 109, twice vs. and at 59, vs. 55

Team B (Overall: 18-9, Big East: 9-6)

RPI: 55
Strength of schedule:  65, non-conference SOS: 203, conference SOS: 44
Record vs. RPI top 50: 3-7
Losses to teams outside RPI top 100: 2
Record in neutral/road games: 6-6
Best wins (teams listed by RPI): vs. 9, vs. 14 (neutral), at 40, at 59, vs. 66
Worst losses (teams listed by RPI): at 185, vs. 122

Team C (Overall: 18-10, Big East: 7-8)

RPI: 72
Strength of schedule: 61, non-conference SOS: 196, conference SOS: 37
Record vs. RPI top 50: 2-4
Losses to teams outside RPI top 100: 2
Record in neutral/road games: 2-7
Best wins (teams listed by RPI): vs. 10, vs. 59, twice vs. and at 66
Worst losses (teams listed by RPI): at 127, vs. 93 (neutral) vs. 75, at 59, at 52

Team D (Overall: 16-11, Big East: 6-9)

RPI: 66
Strength of schedule: 43, non-conference SOS: 246, conference SOS: 20
Record vs. RPI top 50: 3-4
Losses to teams outside RPI top 100: 1
Record in neutral/road games: 6-7
Best wins (teams listed by RPI): at 9, vs. 10, vs. 49, vs. 52, vs. 59
Worst losses (teams listed by RPI): vs. 209, at 75, twice vs. and at 72, at 59

Team E (Overall: 16-11, Big East: 7-8)

RPI: 59
Strength of schedule: 29, non-conference SOS: 53, conference SOS: 72
Record vs. RPI top 50: 4-6
Losses to teams outside RPI top 100: 0
Record in neutral/road games: 4-8
Best wins (teams listed by RPI): vs. 15 (neutral), vs. 28 (neutral), twice vs. and at 40,
Worst losses (teams listed by RPI): at 75, at 72, at 66, vs. 55

Team F (Overall: 15-12, Big East: 5-10)

RPI: 75
Strength of schedule: 33, non-conference SOS: 73, conference SOS: 46
Record vs. RPI top 50: 3-8
Losses to teams outside RPI top 100: 2
Record in neutral/road games: 6-6
Best wins (teams listed by RPI): vs. 13 (neutral), vs. 36 (neutral), vs. 41, vs. 59, at 66
Worst losses (teams listed by RPI): at 127, vs. 109, vs. 55, vs. 52

Team G (Overall: 18-10, Big East: 9-6)

RPI: 41
Strength of schedule:  6, non-conference SOS: 21, conference SOS: 34
Record vs. RPI top 50: 2-6
Losses to teams outside RPI top 100: 1
Record in neutral/road games: 4-6
Best wins (teams listed by RPI): at 4, vs. 40, vs. 59, vs. 66
Worst losses (teams listed by RPI): vs. 119, at 75, vs. 56, at 52

Team H (Overall: 16-10, Big East: 7-8)

RPI: 52
Strength of schedule: 18, non-conference SOS: 162, conference SOS: 17
Record vs. RPI top 50: 3-9
Losses to teams outside RPI top 100: 0
Record in neutral/road games: 3-7
Best wins (teams listed by RPI): vs. 10, vs. 41, at 48, vs. 59
Worst losses (teams listed by RPI): at 66

Team A: Connecticut

Team B: Marquette

Team C: Notre Dame

Team D: South Florida

Team E: Cincinnati

Team F: St. John’s

Team G: Louisville

Team H: Seton Hall

Bracket Breakdown: Mock Tournament 3.0

What a difference two weeks can make. Less than 14 days ago, Connecticut was left for dead after Cincinnati completed a season sweep of the Huskies with a 60-48 win in Storrs. But just when everyone was ready to relegate Connecticut to the NIT, the Huskies flipped the switch and started beating the Big East’s beasts.

Almost two weeks later, Connecticut has wins against Villanova and West Virginia — two marquee wins to brag about, in addition to the No. 2 toughest schedule. As a result of the Huskies’ recent hot streak, Connecticut makes its debut in the tournament as a No. 8 seed. Yes, teams can go from the wrong side of the bubble to a solid middle-of-the-road seed in less than two weeks. With remaining games against Louisville, Notre Dame and South Florida, Connecticut has an opportunity to build a six-game winning streak heading into the Big East Tournament and move up the seed chart.

While Connecticut rises, William & Mary continues to falter. After dropping a must-win BracketBusters game at Iona, the Tribe returned home to lose to Towson, ranked No. 273 in the RPI. That loss gives William & Mary three losses to teams in the bottom 150 of the RPI. That’s just too many losses to bad teams, which neutralizes the strength of quality wins against Wake Forest, Richmond and Maryland. Unless the Tribe make a run to capture the Colonial Athletic Association’s automatic bid, the Tribe will once again fail to reach the NCAA Tournament. The team has never gone to the Big Dance since it started in 1939.

Here are some of the other highlights of Mock Tournament 3.0.

• The No. 1 seeds remain the same, but watch Purdue’s performance without Robbie Hummel.
• Baylor and Missouri inch higher in seeding, which reflects the strength of the Big 12 Conference this season.
• Florida State and Virginia Tech are entering bubble trouble, while Louisville can start to feel a little more secure.
• Florida is coming on strong at the right time of year, and Utah State and UTEP are getting closer to earning an at-large bid if they don’t win their conferences’ automatic bids.

Without further ado, here are the Mock Tournament 3.0 seeds. UAB and Cincinnati in the tournament? Florida and Charlotte out? Am I crazy or right on point? Submit a comment to share your thoughts and opinions.

For comparison, also check out Mock Tournament 1.0 and Mock Tournament 2.0. Also, check out a map of NCAA Tournament sites and the schedule for all rounds of the tournament.

Purdue: Without Hummel, Boilermakers Seek Validation

With a 24-3 record that includes four wins against the RPI top 25, Purdue appeared on pace to receive a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament before losing junior forward Robbie Hummel to a torn ACL for the remainder of the season.

But with Hummel out, Purdue should consider the team’s record 0-0, at least until this weekend. The NCAA Tournament selection committee will be watching the Boilermakers closely to see whether the team that ends the regular season without Hummel resembles the team that played its first 27 games with the team’s second-leading scorer. Hummel was a critical piece to Purdue’s attack, averaging 15.7 points and 6.9 rebounds per game while shooting 36.4 percent from three-point range and 90.2 percent from the free throw line.

Purdue’s new season starts Sunday when Michigan State comes to West Lafayette seeking revenge for a 76-64 loss in East Lansing a few weeks ago. If the Boilermakers can rack up its seventh win against the RPI top 50, they will take a major step forward in validating a fantastic season, even with Hummel watching from the sidelines. And the Spartans might be the right team for Purdue to face in its first game without Hummel. Although the national runner-up from a year ago has a potentially potent roster, Michigan State has lost four of its past six games, and five of the team’s seven losses have been away from the Izzone.

After Michigan State, Purdue ends the regular season against Indiana and Penn State. If Purdue falls to the Spartans, the Boilermakers must bounce back against the Big Ten’s bottom-feeders to avoid dropping significantly in seeding. Penn State and Indiana have an RPI of 200 or worse. Considering that the Boilermakers have no losses to teams outside the RPI top 100, a loss to the Nittany Lions or Hoosiers would signify that Purdue is not as potent without Hummel.

The bottom line is that experts and fans won’t know what to expect until the Boilermakers return to action. However, if Tuesday’s come-from-behind win at Minnesota is any indication, coach Matt Painter will have his team ready to play stifling defense. And the team will likely continue to play efficient offense. The Boilermakers finished the Minnesota game with 45.3 percent shooting from the field, including 35 percent from three-point territory, while committing only seven turnovers. Purdue is one of the best teams in Division I at avoiding mistakes, and Painter will emphasize that the team has a slimmer margin for error without Hummel.

Harvard Still Has Much to Play For

CAMBRIDGE, Mass. – Contrary to popular belief, Harvard’s season didn’t end with Friday night’s loss to Cornell.  To be sure, the Crimson need help – a lot of it, in fact – if they are to win the Ivy League now.  But Tommy Amaker knows his team still has plenty to play for, and made sure his players knew it.  And on Saturday night, they bounced back like a team on a mission as they blew out Columbia 77-57.

With the win, Harvard tied the program’s second-best total for wins in a season with 18, previously set in 1996-97.  With at least four games left, they have a good chance to top the school record of 19 set back in 1945-46.  That starts with their final two home games against Brown and Yale this weekend.

“It’s a long way from things being over, and we can’t allow our guys to lick our wounds or hang our heads,” said Amaker.  “We’re at home, we’re excited, and we get a chance to suit back up and have a good feeling in our stomachs about how we played.  We also talked about seeing if we can make history.”

Friday night’s loss wasn’t going to be easy to bounce back from.  The next game was less than 24 hours away, but besides that, there was the big buildup to the game and the importance of it.  But the Crimson looked just fine against a Columbia team that is struggling.  On that night, the Crimson’s play had as much to do with the outcome as anything, although Lions head coach Joe Jones was a bit subdued talking about where his team stands.

Amaker said the possibility of this team making history resonated with the players.  It showed right away as the Crimson were in control before the first half was out, shooting 55.6 percent from the field en route to a 45-26 halftime lead.  They were 8-13 from long range, and they kept up the lead in the second half.

It’s important to remember that this is still a young team.  The Crimson start two seniors, a sophomore and two freshmen, but that’s not all.  The primary healthy reserves (senior Pat Magnarelli is still out with an injury) are freshmen or sophomores.  While their heart and soul is senior Jeremy Lin, there’s a lot of young talent on this team.  The youth showed in Friday night’s loss, but perhaps some of it showed on Saturday as well in being resilient.

While the Crimson need a good deal of help to win the Ivy League, postseason play can still happen.  If the Crimson win out, an NIT bid would not seem far-fetched considering they have some good wins.  It’s not likely the Ivy League will get two teams in the NIT, so if the Crimson finish third and the second place team gets an NIT bid, that might not come.  But it is certainly a possibility, and that would add to this team’s place in the program’s history book.

Besides that, a chance for this young team to play again would obviously help from the standpoint of more experience and getting the feel of postseason play.  That can only make the players who will return even more hungry next season, because they would surely want more after experiencing it one time.

The Crimson haven’t given up on winning the Ivy League, although they don’t control their own destiny now.  But they still have plenty to play for, and four games left with the hope at least one more to follow.

Effort Not a Problem For Boston College of Late

CHESTNUT HILL, Mass. – There have been times this season where Boston College’s effort has been in question.  Much like Saturday afternoon, when the Eagles beat North Carolina, Wednesday night wasn’t one of them, as the Eagles blew out Virginia Tech 80-60 largely from playing harder.

Boston College won all the effort plays.  It came in the form of stopping chances Virginia Tech had close to the basket, getting all the loose balls and 50-50 balls.  Almost anytime the ball was deflected or an Eagle lost the handle, it came right back to the home team.  Even when it looked like the Hokies might get an easy basket off a broken play, an Eagle suddenly was right there to break it up.  And it happened throughout the game.

“You’ve got to give them credit,” Virginia Tech head coach Seth Greenberg said.  “They played at a high level tonight, and they’re capable of playing at a high level.”

Virginia Tech certainly didn’t play their best game on Wednesday, laying an egg at a bad time.  No one could have seen it coming, as they played well in a losing effort at Duke on Sunday and had a couple of good practices leading up to Wednesday night.  That contributed to the margin of victory, but there’s no question Boston College looks like a different team now.

The first difference is that the Eagles have now been using a press for several weeks, and it has made a difference in the results.  Teams had been able to press the Eagles into submission, but now they’re turning the tables and better at breaking the press.  While they haven’t won every game, they’ve been right there in all of them and they look more comfortable pressing teams.  The last two times, they have played well in winning efforts.

Another key difference is the play of Reggie Jackson.  The sophomore guard has been inserted into the starting lineup, and after struggling at times earlier in the season has been hot of late.  Jackson started games earlier in the year due to injuries, but moved back to the bench once the Eagles were healthy.  There isn’t an Eagle with his physical gifts, but he’s been a little on the feast-or-famine side thus far.  Lately, it’s more feast.

Jackson has been excellent in the past two games as a starter.  He scored 17 points and handed out seven assists in the win over North Carolina, with 14 of those points coming in the second half.  Against Virginia Tech, he had just five points but eight rebounds to go with the 11 assists.  He has the quickness for the position, but has generally played off the ball as he’s learned the game at this level.  Now, it’s almost hard to believe there was a point where he was struggling earlier this year because he seemed to be consumed with playing the position.

In part because of Jackson, the Eagles were sharp early and ran out to a 15-2 lead.  The scoring pace slowed considerably, but the Eagles got hot again and scored both in the paint and on the long ball as Jackson racked up eight of his career-high 11 assists in the first half.

“I think we were just executing well,” said junior forward Joe Trapani, who led the Eagles with 17 points, all in the first half.  “We were very patient, setting screens, waiting for screens, and that’s kind of been our problem in the past.”

Virginia Tech looked like they might have a run in them to start the second half, but the Eagles quickly regained the momentum.  Throughout the second half, they continued to have the edge on effort plays, out-rebounding the Hokies and getting every 50-50 ball, something not lost on the Hokies.

“I just felt like we started out slow, and we couldn’t get back in,” said junior guard Malcolm Delaney, who didn’t score his first points until more than 10 minutes were played.  “We weren’t getting stops and we weren’t getting 50-50 balls.”

It wasn’t an accident that the Eagles kept it up in the second half.  One thing Trapani was quick to point out was how the Eagles out-scored the Hokies by five in the second half instead of relaxing with the lead they had, something they have done a few times this season.

Boston College hasn’t had an effort issue of late, which had dogged the Eagles for much of the season up through January.  The games they have lost haven’t been ones they should have won or where they got embarrassed.  They aren’t going to suddenly make a run and reach the NCAA Tournament, but they look more and more like a tough out and like a team that could knock someone off in the ACC Tournament.

Friars Hope to Show They Grew During Brutal Stretch

PROVIDENCE, R.I. – Four games against teams ranked in the top 10 are in the books for Providence.  It would be a challenging stretch for anyone, but for the young Friars it was a bigger challenge.  The Friars lost all four, three by double digits.  So what’s the thinking?

The answer a senior gave isn’t surprising.

“I think it shows us that we have a lot of work to do, mentally, physically, preparation, with everything,” said Sharaud Curry.  “We just got to get a lot better to compete with these teams night in and night out.”

No question, the Friars aren’t there yet.  They weren’t blown out in any of the games, and in fact they were very much in all of them save perhaps for West Virginia.  But just like there’s a difference between contending for a title and winning it, there’s a difference between being in the game and winning.

There’s also a bright side to each game with the fact that they were right there, and that’s not all.  Providence out-rebounded a bigger Georgetown team in the first game, stayed right with a very good Villanova team for much of the second game, didn’t adapt to a bad matchup against West Virginia and then hung 86 points on Syracuse, the most the Orange have allowed all season.  The Friars led twice at halftime.

One thing that’s abundantly clear from this stretch as much as at any other time this season is that the Friars’ biggest area for improvement is on the defensive end.  The lowest field goal percentage by an opponent in this stretch was Villanova’s 47.1 percent showing.  And while Syracuse played well, that wasn’t the only reason the Orange shot 55.6 percent from the field on Tuesday night, including 10-21 from long range.  There’s just not enough offense that can make up for that, and in the second half on Tuesday, the Friars weren’t making shots like they were in the first half.

“If we’re making shots, we’re a really good team,” said Curry.  “When we’re not making them, we’ve got to bunker down and get stops.”

In particular, post defense is a big issue.  Syracuse had a 56-34 edge in points in the paint as Rick Jackson (career-high 28 points on 13-17 shooting and nine boards) and Arinze Onuaku (12 points in 19 minutes) had a field night inside.  That wasn’t an isolated case, either: all four teams in this stretch had an edge of 18 points or better in that category.  West Virginia had a 50-20 edge.

Still, the young Friars haven’t mailed it in.  Head coach Keno Davis felt his team played hard and hasn’t complained about their effort in any of these games.  He’s taking the long view with this team, seeing the potential they have if they take the lessons these four games offered them.  And while it won’t be clear if they’ve learned the lesson until a little ways down the road, they have had the opportunity to see what a top 10 team looks like up close and personal.

“They showed why they’re among the top teams in the country,” said freshman guard Vincent Council.  “They keep their composure – even when they’re up, they’re still running their plays.”

The Friars have the potential to one day grow into one of the Big East’s better teams, but more improvement is needed.  If they learn the lessons this stretch offered, they will be another step closer to that goal.

Texas: Longhorns Look for Lead Dog at Point Guard

Already having defied logic through a colossal midseason meltdown that saw the Longhorns lose six of nine games after starting the season 17-0 and obtaining the holy No. 1 ranking, now-No. 21Texas (21-6) was at it again Saturday in a Big 12 Conference dogfight at United Spirit Arena against unassuming Texas Tech (16-10).

A little more than a month ago, Texas vs. Texas Tech would have been a pit bull vs. chihuahua kind of dogfight. But Saturday, the Longhorns continued to be shih-tzus, barely hanging on to beat the Red Raiders, 71-67, after the Red Raiders’ Nick Okorie missed a would-be game-tying jumper with 12 seconds to go.

“We really survived here against a team that showed a lot of heart,” Texas coach Rick Barnes said afterward.

Surviving is all Texas has been doing lately. The Longhorns are trying hard not to fall out of the top 25 altogether. But after finding out that starting point guard Dogus Balbay will miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL in his left knee, which he suffered early during the Saturday win, that might just prove impossible — especially in the talent-packed Big 12, which features the No. 1 team in the nation: Kansas.

Although Balbay’s numbers didn’t exactly lead the league — 3.8 points, 3.2 rebounds and 3.9 assists per game — the junior gave Barnes something he feels he’ll have difficulty finding in Balbay’s comrades, J’Covan Brown and Justin Mason: backcourt leadership.

Following two previous calls into  the starting lineup, Brown, a freshman who averages 10 points per game, was sent to the bench Saturday and played only five minutes despite the unavailability of Balbay. Mason, a senior, ran the team for 38 minutes. His numbers weren’t impressive: Eight points on 3-of-11 shooting, five assists and four turnovers.

It’s tough to make much of a one-game audition, but it surely looks like Texas will have to rely on its big men more than it already does to prevent further plunging of its NCAA Tournament-seeding stock. Good thing Texas has plenty of beef in the paint, highlighted by forward Damion Jones, who averages 17.6 points and 10.8 rebounds per game.

“We’re an inside-out team,” said Gary Johnson, voicing the likely strategy his team will have to follow with four regular-season games remaining. “That’s what got us to the point in the season when we were undefeated.”

Not that anything can really get Texas back to its undefeated-times level, but it has no other choice, and the testing starts right away. The Longhorns have a date against Oklahoma State (19-7) today, a daunting task considering Texas’ recent struggles. Following that, they’ll have a road nightmare at No. 23 Texas A&M, a must-win — along with a decent Big 12 Tournament run — if Texas aspires to get at least a No. 4 seed in the tournament as our latest Mock Tournament predicts.

Texas won’t go far in the Dance, but perhaps it can go out barking louder than it has been lately.

Duke: Blue Devils Don’t Get Enough Credit

In recent years, the two teams that bookend Tobacco Road have garnered so much national praise that by March, many college basketball fans are reciting their ABCDs: Anybody But Carolina or Duke!

But this year has a different feel. North Carolina has suffered a full nuclear meltdown, and the ACC has only one representative in either poll: Duke. And for some reason, the Blue Devils don’t seem to be receiving much attention. However, in about six weeks in Indianapolis, the basketball nation will likely be wondering where in the world these Devils came from.

Entering the final week of February, Duke possesses the most potent offense in basketball with an efficiency rating of 123.6, according to Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency statistics. To better appreciate Duke’s offensive prowess, consider that only 14 teams in the past six NCAA Tournaments have had an offensive efficiency rating of 123.0 or better. Nine of those 14 teams reached the Final Four, and four of them cut down the nets in the past five years. Of those 14 teams, only Wake Forest in 2005 failed to reach the Sweet 16, which can largely be attributed to a terrible defense that was ranked No. 72 in defensive efficiency.

The trio of Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith runs Duke’s offensive juggernaut. As Ken Pomeroy’s team reports indicate, Scheyer is one of the most productive offensive players in the country. His statistics back up that rating: 18.9 points per game, 39.8 percent shooting from three-point range, 88.5 percent shooting from the free throw line and a better than 3:1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Combined, the three lead Devils average 53.7 points, 13.5 rebounds, 10.6 assists and 3.9 steals per game. They each shoot better than 39 percent from three-point range and 77 percent from the free throw line.

Besides the big three, Duke has some key role players who can take the pressure off Singler, Smith and Scheyer. The Plumlee brothers, Lance Thomas and Brian Zoubek give coach Mike Krzyzewski more depth in the frontcourt than he’s had in years. The Blue Devils are perilously thin in the backcourt. But Scheyer and Smith show no signs of diminishing production despite averaging more than 35 minutes per game.

Duke also has a good shot at making a deep NCAA Tournament run because the team is  well balanced. Duke ranks No. 12 in defensive efficiency and is the second-best team in the nation at guarding the three-point line. That’s a critical skill to have in the early rounds of the NCAA Tournament, when many upset-minded teams use the three-point line to score in bunches.

The scary part about Duke is that the Blue Devils figure to be an even better, more balanced team next season. Duke has Stephen Curry’s baby brother, Seth, sitting on the bench as a sweet-shooting transfer from Liberty. Curry averaged 20.2 points per game and hit 102 three-pointers last season. In addition, Duke will add five-star recruit Kyrie Irving to provide more depth at point guard, and freshman guard Andre Dawkins will have one season of experience under his belt.

But these Blue Devils are focused on the present, with senior guard Scheyer prepared to lead Duke to the promised land of the Final Four for the first time since 2004. Unless this team runs out of steam in the next few weeks, only bad luck — meaning drawing Kansas in its bracket — will keep Duke out of Indianapolis.

Army Gets Offensive in Win over Navy

WEST POINT, N.Y. – The trademark this season for Army has been its defense. On Saturday, the Cadets put together a good offensive showing and defeated rival Navy 69-50 at Christl Arena.  Navy scored the game’s first basket before Army went on a 15-0 spurt over the next seven minutes and was never threatened.

The key factors:

• As noted the Army offense stepped up. The Cadets shot 51 percent from the field and were led by senior swingman Cleveland Richard with a game-high 15 points. Of greater significance was the contribution of Chris Walker. The 6-9 senior came off the bench to score 14 points (7 of 9 from the floor) and give Army a strong low post presence. “(Navy’s) defense didn’t collapse on me,” Walker said. “I had opportunities and felt good out there.”
• The defense of Army saw the Midshipmen held to a 37 percent shooting performance, including 1 of 19 from beyond the arc. “A lot of teams you can make a pass or two and get a shot,” said Navy guard O. J. Avworo. “With Army you need to be patient and make three or four passes before you get a good shot.”
• The Army defense forced senior guard Chris Harris, Navy’s deadliest scorer, into a four-point afternoon. Harris was 2-17 from the floor and missed all seven attempts from three. “I don’t think they did anything strategically different on Harris,” Navy coach Billy Lange said of Army. “He had four or five looks that just didn’t go down. If he hits them I’m not saying we win but it could have changed the game’s complexion.”
• The victory put Army at 14-12 (4-8 in the Patriot League). Navy is now 13-14 (7-5).  “We don’t have a perfect record but do have a winning record,” Army coach Zach Spiker said. “We hope to be playing our best ball in march.”The schedule leaves Army with two home games to close out the Patriot League campaign. The league postseason tournament follows. In the Patriot , where parity is the key word, it would be wise not to count Army out in the conference tournament. The Cadets, for their part, certainly aren’t.
• The crowd of 5,163 set a Christl Arena record. “Hopefully the time will come when we can get a crowd like this on a Wednesday night,” Spiker said. “You play at a high level, then people will come out.”
• Lange on the Patriot: “I see the results and notice three games we won and could have lost and three we lost but could have won. There is tremendous parity in this league. At times it can be a humbling league. If you lose you can‘t dwell on it. Learn what you did wrong, correct your mistakes and move on to the next opponent.”
• The last game in the home and home of the annual series is designated the ‘Star Game’. This was Army’s first Star Game triumph since 2002.
• Harris had 30 against Army four weeks ago as Navy edged the Cadets in Annapolis.

Notes from the women’s game

• In the opener the Navy women pulled out a 54-48 decision over Army. Navy led 30-18 at the half before the Cadets began to find the range. The game was a one-possession affair in the stretch with Navy never losing its lead. “I think if we got the lead we could have found a way to pull it out,” said Army coach Dave Magarity.
• Junior forward Erin Anthony paced Army with a game-high 22 points. “We didn’t get the perimeter scoring we needed,” Magarity said. “That’s something we struggled with all year.”
• Army is 10-16 (4-8). Navy is now 15-12 (7-5 in the Patriot).
• Junior point guard Angela Myers came up big for Navy. She led the Midshipmen in scoring with 16 points, grabbed 10 rebounds and handed out 4 assists. Meyer also made a succession of big plays at crunch time to allow Navy to protect its lead. “She is an excellent player,” Magarity said of Myers. “She is a veteran and one of the best players in our league.”

Bracket Breakdown: Mock Tournament 2.0

After this weekend’s action, the Mock Tournament 2.0 has a shakeup at the top, with Kentucky replacing Villanova as a No. 1 seed.

I was probably one of the few analysts to leave the Wildcats from Kentucky out of the No. 1 seed club in Mock Tournament 1.0. However, until Kentucky won at Vanderbilt Saturday night, the Wildcats had only two wins against the RPI top 50. Villanova only matched that total but had better marquee wins against West Virginia and Georgetown. Plus Villanova had six wins against the RPI top 50 compared to Kentucky’s four.

But since the last mock brackets arrived three days ago, Kentucky proved that it is one of the toughest teams in basketball by winning a war with the Commodores. Meanwhile, Villanova continued to show its weaknesses in a tight loss at Pittsburgh. Both sets of Wildcats went on the road to face a talented conference opponent that was ranked about No. 10 in the RPI, but only Kentucky’s ‘Cats emerged victorious. That moves them ahead of Villanova for a No. 1 spot.

The other noteworthy change among top seeds is Wake Forest’s departure from the top four seeds. The Demon Deacons suffered a blowout loss at North Carolina State, a team outside the RPI top 100. The Demon Deacons still have a solid RPI at No. 21 and have played the 24th toughest schedule. But they have only win against the RPI top 25, against No. 19 Xavier.

Ohio State steps into the No. 4 seed vacated by the Demon Deacons on the strength of Sunday’s win at Michigan State, the team’s fourth win against the RPI top 25. The Buckeyes now possess road wins against three of the Big Ten’s best: Purdue, Michigan State and Illinois. Wisconsin got past the Buckeyes while Evan Turner was hurt, but Ohio State got revenge in Columbus with a 60-51 win. Ohio State’s resurgence in Big Ten play compensates for a non-conference run devoid of big wins, with the best victories coming against Florida State and California.

At the other end of the brackets, here are the noteworthy changes on the bubble:

• Charlotte drops out of the field and is the first team out.
• Saint Mary’s move into the field.
• Connecticut and Florida are much closer to the field than they were three days ago.
• Cincinnati and William & Mary are one bad loss away from being on the wrong side of the bubble.

Take a look at the Mock Tournament 2.0 brackets. Any better than the first attempt? Let us know by leaving a comment.

Defense Lifts Holy Cross

WORCESTER, Mass. – Holy Cross knows that the way to win is by playing defense.  As such, the Crusaders know that the wins have been hard to come by this season because they have had some struggles at that end of the floor.  But they certainly showed up there on Sunday, as they started the crucial final week of the regular season with a 64-51 win over American.

In the first meeting between the teams, American’s post combination of Vlad Moldoveanu and Stephen Lumpkins combined for 37 points and 23 rebounds in a 71-64 win.  Head coach Sean Kearney challenged his team, especially his big men, for a better effort this time around.  He got it from everyone who got in the game, and the end result followed.

“(Moldoveanu and Lumpkins) had great numbers against us and I challenged our whole team, but I think our big guys really took that as a personal challenge,” Kearney said.

This time around, Holy Cross went with a zone defense that they executed well.  They shut down Moldoveanu, who was 2-9 from the field en route to just seven points and three rebounds, and Lumpkins had 16 and seven.  Lumpkins’ numbers aren’t bad, but compared to the first meeting, it’s a lot better for Holy Cross.

“The number one key defensively was having a great awareness for (Moldoveanu),” said junior forward Andrew Keister, who had 15 points and 18 rebounds to lead Holy Cross.  “Down there, we had the same key, and I think sometimes throughout the year we let (the opponent’s) best player beat us at times.”

Besides the numbers, Moldoveanu didn’t get a lot of touches because the Crusaders shut off passing lanes where he was.  Most of the shots he got weren’t really in the flow of the offense, a sign of how well the Crusaders played at that end of the floor.

With that effort, Holy Cross held an opponent below 40 percent from the field for the eighth time this season.  Six of their eight wins have come in such outings, driving home the reality that defense is the key for this team.  As they don’t force a lot of turnovers, the opponent’s field goal percentage is the bigger statistic.

“We know that the way we win is playing defense,” said junior point guard Andrew Beinert.  “That’s the only way we’re going to come out on top.”

The Crusaders have now begun the final week of regular season play, a stretch with three games in seven days.  They improved to 5-7 in the Patriot League with Sunday’s win.  They can still get to .500 in the league, but that would mean putting together a season-high three-game winning streak that would finish with a win at Lehigh, which looks like the league’s best team.  In light of that, it’s easy to see why they are perhaps cautiously optimistic about going on a run to end the regular season.

“After the Lafayette and Army wins, I thought we were going to go on a run,” said Keister.  “I think we all believed that.  Then we played a tough Bucknell team at Bucknell and had a tough loss at Navy.”

Not helping matters is that the Crusaders may need to make such a run without their best player, R.J. Evans.  The sophomore guard has been sidelined since their loss at Bucknell, when he suffered a hip injury that limited him to 19 minutes at Navy.  Kearney said they were hopeful that he could play on Sunday, but Evans sat out the game in street clothes.  That’s probably why he is uncertain about when he may be able to come back, saying only that Evans is “out indefinitely”.  They are already without Adam May, whose season is over due to a stress fracture in his right foot.

If the Crusaders make a run to reach .500 in the league, they will do so with their defense.  And if they get there, it’s fair to say they can be a dangerous team in the league tournament.

“I think if we’re playing well heading into the tournament, there probably isn’t a team that would be excited about having to play us,” Kearney said.

Bracketbusters 2010 in Omaha

OMAHA – It is Bracketbusters Saturday and time for some of the better mid-major teams to step outside conference play and maybe impress some of the members of the NCAA Tournament selection committee.

But for Creighton and Loyola (Ill.), there was no TV for their Bracketbusters game tonight, so they were both trying to get back on track after suffering losses in last games in conference play.

As it worked out, Creighton broke their two-game losing streak with a convincing 78-58 win over their Horizon League foe, but it took a second half spurt to put away the Ramblers after they pulled to within one at 34-33 on a jumper by Andy Polka with four seconds left in the first half.

In the first half Loyola got their largest lead of the game at the 17:31 mark on a jumper by Ben Averkamp to make it 10-5. Then Creighton (14-14) went on a 27-10 run to take a 12-point lead at 32-20 with 4:45 left in the first half.

But just when it looked like the Bluejays were going to put this game away, the Ramblers got back into the game on two free throws and a layup by Walt Gibler, four free throws by Geoff McCammon, a three-pointer by Terrance Hill and the aforementioned jumper by Polka.

Loyola (14-13) seemed to be in good shape coming out in the second half and then in just over four minutes the Bluejays had another 12-point lead at 47-35.

Creighton’s second half lead stayed at around 10 points until just under five minutes remained. A couple free throws by Antoine Young got the Bluejays to finish out on a 15-6 run with six different players scoring multiple points close out the game.

“In the first seven or eight minutes Creighton got up in us and we just didn’t take care of the ball. We didn’t get any in and out. We just didn’t have many quality processions when they went on their run to start the second half,” said Loyola coach Jim Whitesell. “It is execution where we need to improve, but give Creighton credit, they had only 10 turnovers and six more possessions than we had and we need every possession possible.”

Creighton’s coach Dana Altman thought their second half run was triggered by good defense.

“Defensively, I think we were better. We got a lot of points on turnovers. Then Casey (Harriman) hit a big three and Kaleb (Korver) hit a big three and they had been struggling. So that helped us open up a lead,” explained Altman.

Creighton’s Kenny Lawson had a double-double with 19 points to lead all scorers and 10 rebounds. Cavel Witter also scored 12 points for the Bluejays.

For Loyola, Walt Gibbler had 15 points, Terrance Hill had 12 points and McCammon had 11 points. Polka had 10 rebounds.

Whenever a team interrupts conference play to play a non-conference game there is always the possibility in some players’ minds that this type of game can be a distraction or maybe break up the rhythm they are in playing conference games. That line of thought was not shared by the Creighton’s Justin Carter, who thought it was an opportunity to get on the winning track.

“It was great stepping out of conference play when we could see someone new and try to get something going,” Carter said.

Notes

• This series dates back to 1926 and Loyola leads the series 11-6.
• Dana Altman is the dean of Missouri Valley coaches in his 16^th year with a 322-174 (.649) record.
• This is just the second time in eight years that Creighton’s Bracketbusters game did not air on national television.
• Loyola’s trainer Dr. Ton Hitcho has worked 952 consecutive Loyola basketball games. Since joining the staff in 1977-78 he has witnessed 445 Rambler victories.
• Creighton draws 14,093 during the last six years, but during the four Bracketbusters games held here at the Qwest Center the Bluejays have averaged a little over 17,300 per game.
• During the National Anthem every Creighton player and coach put their hands on their heart. Not many teams do that anymore. In fact, the vast majority of the crowd did that too.
• Tonight’s match-up is part of the nationwide Jesuit Basketball Spotlight project, using Jesuit basketball to raise awareness of Jesuit education. They highlight games between the 28 Jesuit colleges and universities.
• Creighton’s next game is Tuesday at Southern Illinois at 8:05 EST.
• Loyola’s next game is at home against Milwaukee Thursday at 8:00 EST.

CAA: Colonial Teams Get Bracket Busted

Entering the ESPN BracketBusters event this weekend, the Colonial Athletic Association had possibly the most to gain. Twelve games later, the CAA lost more ground in race for the NCAA Tournament than any other conference.

According to the RPI, the CAA is the 12^th best conference in the country. But the conference’s top teams lost to the cream of the crop from the Missouri Valley Conference, Southern Conference and Western Athletic Conference. William & Mary, which has one of the CAA’s best profiles for an at-large bid, suffered the most damaging loss in a road game against Iona, ranked No. 92 in the RPI, by 16 points. The only elite CAA team to win was VCU, which won a home game against Akron, ranked No. 100 in the RPI. The rest of the CAA pack didn’t fare much better as the conference ended BracketBusters with a 3-9 record.

Old Dominion, Northeastern and William & Mary had the most to gain in their BracketBusters match ups. But Old Dominion couldn’t solve Northern Iowa’s suffocating defense en route to a 71-62 loss. Despite the defeat, the Monarchs have a solid résumé anchored by a marquee win at Georgetown. Old Dominion doesn’t have too many other great wins to brag about, but the Moncarchs have notched good wins against Charlotte, William & Mary (twice) and Marshall. As co-leader of the CAA, Old Dominion should receive an invitation to the NCAA Tournament even if the Monarchs lose early in the CAA Tournament.

Unfortunately for the CAA, the Monarchs are the only team that can feel comfortable about their NCAA Tournament prospects. William & Mary has stumbled too many times since racking up non-conference victories against Richmond, Wake Forest and Maryland. The Tribe has two ugly losses to James Madison and UNC-Wilmington, both of which have RPIs worse than 200. The loss to Iona in the BracketBusters event, which was televised on ESPNU, might be the death knell for the Tribe’s tournament aspirations.

After starting 2-7, Northeastern had won 16 of 18 games heading into its home match up against Louisiana Tech in the BracketBusters event. The best wins were against Kent State and CAA-foes like Old Dominion and VCU. The Huskies likely needed to beat Louisiana Tech to prove that their turnaround was complete. However, a three-point loss drops Northeastern to 18-10 and likely in need of the CAA’s automatic bid to reach the NCAA Tournament.

The lone member of the CAA elite to win a BracketBusters game was VCU, which stands at No. 61 in the RPI. The Rams have a couple of quality wins against Rhode Island and Old Dominion. But those are offset by bad losses to James Madison and Western Michigan. VCU closes the regular season at Old Dominion, which is an opportunity to pick up a quality road win. That would be the team’s fifth win against the RPI top 50. Even if the Rams enter the CAA Tournament with a 21-7 record, VCU almost certainly would need to win the automatic bid to reach the Big Dance.

Come Selection Sunday, the second-to-last weekend of February will likely be one of the big reasons why the CAA remains a one-bid conference when the selection committee reveals the brackets at the end of the second weekend of March.

Tar Heels Struggle For a Variety of Reasons

CHESTNUT HILL, Mass. – North Carolina certainly had some question marks entering the season.  Chances are, though, not many people imagined the Tar Heels would be 3-9 in the ACC with four games to go in the regular season.  Not many imagined that Roy Williams would be experiencing what he called “the most frustrating time I’ve ever had in coaching, there’s no question about that.”

North Carolina has seven McDonald’s All-Americans on its roster, so there’s no shortage of talent despite heavy personnel losses from last season’s national championship team.  But talent alone doesn’t win anything, and this team is clearly lacking in several areas.  That was apparent once again in the Tar Heels’ 71-67 loss at Boston College on Saturday, their ninth in 11 games.

The first problem is point guard play.  Larry Drew II isn’t his dad, who spent 11 years in the NBA.  He’s a nice point guard, but not one you win a national championship with and he’s certainly not a replacement for Ty Lawson in a running offense.  With Lawson, the Heels could run even on made baskets; with Drew, that’s rarely possible.  His assist and turnover numbers are nice, and he shoots over 40 percent from long range, but those numbers are not only deceiving, but they’re all down in ACC play just like the team’s success.

While Dexter Strickland has the athleticism to be the running point guard, he lacks the skills to play the position.  He’s emerged as a player who Williams has to have in the game because he gives great effort, but he’s not a point guard.

The second problem is that this team gives the ball away.  North Carolina averages nearly 16 turnovers per game and has just five more assists than turnovers on the season.  Perhaps more telling is that they have a negative turnover margin for the season and have had more turnovers than assists in nine of the 12 ACC games.  On Saturday, they turned it over 11 times, which is below their average, but Boston College made them hurt as they scored 16 points off them.

Another important problem is shooting, something Williams was concerned about before the season.  This team lacks a sniper from long range, something they had in bunches with Wayne Ellington as well as Danny Green and Lawson.  Drew shoots just over 40 percent and Will Graves about 38, but no one else on the team will strike fear in opposing defenses with their jump shot.

The next problem is mental toughness, and that was shown on several occasions on Saturday.  Although North Carolina started the season well and looked like it would be another NCAA Tournament season in Chapel Hill, when the going has gotten tough, the Heels have been stopped.  Nowhere was this more evident than when Boston College would stop a run the Tar Heels made and it would do more than just slow the momentum.  Instead, almost every time it seemed to demoralize the Tar Heels.

“It seems like when we scored we were just… it was like we would kind of lose hope,” said Drew.  “We just have to understand that if a team goes on a run, that doesn’t mean that we stop playing hard and start giving up.”

Added Tyler Zeller, who returned after a stress fracture in his right foot sidelined him for over a month: “That’s what good teams do.  They know how to get momentum, they know how to counter momentum, and they don’t get flustered when the other team has the momentum.”

Williams has seen this very clearly with his team since about the time the calendar rolled over to 2010.  He sees that the confidence with this team is nothing like what it was earlier in the season, another problem they have.

“College of Charleston and Clemson, in a short period of time, shook us a little bit,” said Williams.  “We have never reacted in a positive way and gotten tougher with it since then.  We will make some runs in a game, and then we turn around and allow the other team to make some runs.”

Williams said he didn’t think the Tar Heels played with the necessary sense of urgency in the first half on Saturday.  They started well in the second half, but just like with the season, things got a little tough and the Tar Heels didn’t get going.  They have been hit hard by injuries that have led to seven players, including Zeller and Ed Davis, missing games, and senior Marcus Ginyard looks nothing like a player who was once very highly recruited.  But Williams, who has also been hit by the injury bug with a torn labrum in his left shoulder that required surgery in November, knows his team is too talented to have a 3-9 ACC record, the most ACC losses they have had since 2002-03.  He also knows that the talent doesn’t matter as much as how the team plays.

“You’ve got to freakin’ play,” Williams said.  “If my back’s against the wall and I’m getting my tail kicked, I’m going to fight you until I die.”

Right now, this team, talented though they are, isn’t doing that.

Heading into the weekend, there was a feeling within the team that the Tar Heels were poised to go on a run to end the season.  Williams felt that an 8-8 ACC record, combined with their wins over Ohio State and Michigan State in non-conference, would get them in the NCAA Tournament.  If they were to run the table, they would pick up wins over Florida State and at Wake Forest and Duke, so there would seemingly be plenty of quality wins.  But that won’t happen now.

“I thought we were going to win today and get on a great run and we’d be in the NCAA Tournament,” said Williams.  “Now I’ve got to readjust and see if we can get it done by starting with the next game.”

Williams isn’t mailing it in at all for this season, but his frustration seems likely to continue unless the Tar Heels improve in a number of areas.  The question marks that were there before the season remain, and new ones have emerged, but few if any thought it would lead to the Tar Heels being where they are right now.

Seton Hall: Injuries Blast Holes in Pirates’ Tourney Hopes

Jeremy Hazell’s deep cut suffered during Seton Hall’s win against St. John’s Wednesday might mean the same to his team’s chances to appear in the NCAA Tournament: a cut out of the competition, a burst off the bubble of teams hopeful to be in the Big Dance.

Hazell, who needed eight stitches to close the cut on his shooting hand, was a miserable 2-for-10 from the field and scored only nine points in 33 minutes as the Pirates (15-10) lost a game they had to have on Saturday, 75-63 at West Virginia (21-5).

Numbers like that are almost unheard of from the Big East Conference’s second-leading scorer. Coming into Saturday, Hazell, who averages 21.9 points per game, had been held to less than 10 points in only three occasions.

“It’s a lot different,” center Herb Pope, Hazell’s teammate, said following the loss. “Guys have to come in and play unfamiliar roles. Different players have to step up and take Jeremy’s shots and try to win the game.”

Hazell’s injury couldn’t have been more untimely for a team hoping to get recognition in what’s arguably the toughest conference in college basketball. The Big East features five top 25 teams — tied with the Big 12 for the most in a single conference — and a second win against one of those squads was indispensable for fading Seton Hall.

The Pirates, whose best win of the season was a 64-61 downing of No. 21 Pittsburgh (20-6) Jan. 24, will now have to win their four remaining Big East games and hope inconsistent Louisville (18-9) and the rest of the monster-conference bubble teams, including the Cardinals, Cincinnati, Marquette and Connecticut, don’t strengthen their own cases too emphatically.

But with Hazell ‘s play clearly affected by the hand injury and Seton Hall still missing starting point guard Eugene Harvey with a bruised wrist, it’s questionable that the Pirates can even finish the regular season without anymore setbacks. And even with that, Seton Hall will need a deep run in the Big East Tournament to be offered an at-large bid. It’s either that or the NIT.

Seton Hall better hope it has some fast healers in Hazell and Harvey. They’re essential to make the cut.

Bracket Breakdown: You Be the Judge

The selection committee has the unenviable task of parsing razor-thin differences among a dozen or more teams that are competing for the last invitations to the NCAA Tournament. Take a shot at picking which four teams should make the field from the eight profiles. The teams’ identities are below. And check which teams the Bracket Breakdown predicts to make the field as of Feb. 19 in the Mock Tournament 1.0.

Team A (Overall: 18-7, Conference: 7-4)

• RPI: 34
• Strength of schedule: 40, Non-conference SOS: 21
• Record vs. RPI top 50: 3-5
• Losses to teams outside RPI top 100: 1
• Record in neutral/road games: 4-7
• Conference’s RPI: 6
• Best wins (teams listed by RPI):  vs. 24, vs. 27 (neutral court), vs. 41, vs. 51
• Worst losses (teams listed by RPI): at 194, at 85

Team B (Overall: 18-8, Conference: 7-4)

• RPI: 61
• Strength of schedule: 77, Non-conference SOS: 168
• Record vs. RPI top 50: 2-6
• Losses to teams outside RPI top 100: 1
• Record in neutral/road games: 6-5
• Conference’s RPI: 4
• Best wins (teams listed by RPI):  vs. 22 (neutral court), vs. 39, vs. 63
• Worst losses (teams listed by RPI: vs. 218, at 76

Team C (Overall: 17-9, Conference: 7-7)

• RPI: 62
• Strength of schedule: 42, Non-conference SOS: 2391
• Record vs. RPI top 50: 2-3
• Losses to teams outside RPI top 100: 2
• Record in neutral/road games: 1-7
• Conference’s RPI: 8
• Best wins (teams listed by RPI): vs. 16, vs. 26, at 89
• Worst losses (teams listed by RPI: vs. 175, at 119

Team D (Overall: 18-8, Conference: 6-5)

• RPI: 63
• Strength of schedule: 111, Non-conference SOS: 238
• Record vs. RPI top 50: 1-3
• Losses to teams outside RPI top 100: 3
• Record in neutral/road games: 6-6
• Conference’s RPI: 4
• Best wins (teams listed by RPI):  vs. 41 (neutral court), twice vs. and at 54
• Worst losses (teams listed by RPI: at 165, vs. 141, at 114, at 93

Team E (Overall: 19-7, Conference: 7-5)

• RPI: 44
• Strength of schedule: 68, Non-conference SOS: 190
• Record vs. RPI top 50: 4-4
• Losses to teams outside RPI top 100: 2
• Record in neutral/road games: 9-3
• Conference’s RPI: 7
• Best wins (teams listed by RPI):  at 9, vs. 19, vs. 30, vs. 37
• Worst losses (teams listed by RPI): twice vs. and at 147, vs. 72 (neutral court)

Team F (Overall: 17-9, Conference: 9-4)

• RPI: 71
• Strength of schedule: 80, Non-conference SOS: 135
• Record vs. RPI top 50: 4-5
• Losses to teams outside RPI top 100: 2
• Record in neutral/road games: 5-6
• Conference’s RPI: 5
• Best wins (teams listed by RPI):  vs. 12, at 20, vs. 22, at 36
• Worst losses (teams listed by RPI): vs. 147 (neutral court), vs. 116 (neutral court), at 92, at 91

Team G (Overall: 21-4, Conference: 8-3)

• RPI: 45
• Strength of schedule: 186, Non-conference SOS: 342
• Record vs. RPI top 50: 2-2
• Losses to teams outside RPI top 100: 0
• Record in neutral/road games: 7-4
• Conference’s RPI: 3
• Best wins (teams listed by RPI):  vs. 15, vs. 36, vs. 52 (neutral court)
• Worst losses (teams listed by RPI): at 83, at 81

Team H (Overall: 17-8, Conference: 5-6)

• RPI: 54
• Strength of schedule: 59, Non-conference SOS: 133
• Record vs. RPI top 50: 1-5
• Losses to teams outside RPI top 100: 1
• Record in neutral/road games: 6-5
• Conference’s RPI: 4
• Best wins (teams listed by RPI):
• Worst losses (teams listed by RPI: vs. 114, twice vs. and at 63

The results are:

Team A: Dayton

Team B: Florida

Team C: Washington

Team D: Mississippi State

Team E: UNLV

Team F: Illinois

Team G: Virginia Tech

Team H: Mississippi

Cornell Wins With Seasoned Veterans

CAMBRIDGE, Mass. – It’s not every day you have a buildup like this for an Ivy League game, especially when the setting is Harvard.  The Crimson have never been to the NCAA Tournament, and it wasn’t an arch-rival they were about to host.  Yet Friday night’s game against two-time defending champion Cornell was sold out a month in advance, and there was much anticipation about it.

With 15 NBA scouts and several national media members present, the game lived up to its billing, but the home fans went home disappointed as Cornell played like the team of seasoned veterans that they are to take home a convincing 79-70 win.  On this night, the difference in experience couldn’t be missed in how this game went.

Harvard got off to a good start, although they didn’t get out to a big lead.  Cornell was able to hang with them and keep it as a back-and-forth game for a while in the first half, but then the differences showed.  Harvard started turning the ball over – they had 12 in the first half, which the Big Red turned into 16 points – while Cornell kept making shots and getting offensive rebounds.  Symbolic of it was an inbound pass by freshman Brandyn Curry that went over Keith Wright’s head, and after Geoff Reeves missed a fast break layup, Jeff Foote was there to collect the rebound and put it back for a 26-19 lead.

And when Louis Dale, a good but not lights-out shooter from deep, got hot from long range in the second half after Ryan Wittman had the hot hand in the first half, it was hard not to notice that they were seniors who have two Ivy League titles to their credit and have come a long way from their early days on campus.

That wasn’t always a given to help carry this team.  Last year, the Big Red had a clear locker room leader in Adam Gore, a tough player who battled injuries and always competed.  Dale and Wittman aren’t the leader types, and neither was selected as a team captain this year.  Dale is a nice, quiet young man, while Wittman is similar and would rather just be a regular kid than a star.  Head coach Steve Donohue has talked about how Wittman could have a great deal of influence on the team if he ever wanted to because his teammates have so much respect for his game.

All that said, on Friday it was hard not to think Wittman was playing not just like a senior, but a Player of the Year.  He had 27 points on 10-20 shooting, including 6-12 from behind the arc, and grabbed eight rebounds.  But more than that, it was when he made the plays and how he made them, from his shot selection to utilizing his pump fake better than anyone in college basketball because he sells his shot so well.  He had a highlight reel play as well, and naturally it came at a crucial time.  With Harvard in the midst of what would become a 12-0 run to get within five, Curry stole the ball and went in on the fast break.  Wittman hustled back to block the shot and got the ball.

“I think he played with a nastiness, a confidence, a swagger tonight that he wouldn’t want his team to lose in this environment,” Donohue said of Wittman, who moved into sixth place all-time in the Ivy League in scoring.  “He’s done that now the last two games, and I think it’s honestly something we’re going to need the rest of the way.”

While it was Wittman in the first half, it was Dale in the second half who buried Harvard.  Dale went 4-5 from behind the arc in the latter frame, and just about all of them were of the back-breaking variety, although none more so than the one he hit with 7:12 left that followed one by Wittman to put the Big Red back up by double digits.

The senior guards were both quick to give one another credit for their success.  It’s certainly true that they play off each other well, and that has come with their experience together.  It’s also a testament to their high basketball I.Q. as neither is one who will kill you with mistakes.

It wasn’t just Dale and Wittman among the seniors, although they led the way.  The senior-laden Big Red played all in all like such a team, shooting 50 percent from the field including 12-23 from long range, and out-rebounding Harvard 31-20.  They wanted it more, and you could see the chemistry this team has developed.

“They just play so well together,” said Harvard senior Jeremy Lin.  “They’re really experienced, they start four seniors, and they’ve been together for so long.”

Added Donohue: “I think we saw that tonight in stretches when Harvard made runs, I think we stayed poised and confident.”

Harvard is not out of the Ivy League race, but the Crimson need some help now.  Still, one has to remember that this is a young team, which is what the Big Red were three years ago.  While they are a contender now, head coach Tommy Amaker summed up the big lesson of the night for those not already aware.

“We’d like to think that we could become a contender in our league, and we’ve shown that we can do that, but being a contender and being a champion is a big gap,” said Amaker.

That was perhaps never more apparent than it was on Friday night.

Bracket Breakdown: Mock Tournament 1.0

Only 22 days remain until Selection Sunday, the Christmahannukwanzakah of March for college basketball fans. The bracket projections turn to reality shortly after 6 p.m. EST March 14. In the days following Selection Sunday, office productivity creaks to a halt as bracket brainiacs nationwide crunch the numbers in search of the perfect picks.

With about three weeks to go before Selection Sunday, the Bracket Breakdown’s initial outlook foresees a remarkably stable group of teams competing for the 34 at-large bids. The top 36 teams all appear to be safe picks as participants in the Big Dance. That makes the last eight in the field — plus Virginia Tech for good measure — as the only teams that the Bracket Breakdown considers in danger of a collapse. Of course, those teams will start to sweat if they go on losing streaks to end the regular season. And as usual, conference tournaments can wreak havoc when teams like Butler and Northern Iowa allow a second team to represent the Horizon League or Missouri Valley Conference, respectively, which smell like one-bid conferences right now.

During the next few weeks, Bracket Breakdown will publish mock brackets on Mondays and Fridays until Championship Week, when the frequency will increase as the field crystalizes. From the emergence of the Atlantic 10 as one of the top conferences to the invitation of William & Mary for the first time in the Tribe’s 104-year history, here is Mock  Tournament 1.0. Take a look, and submit a comment if you think we’re off base. Of course, if you agree with our projects, feel free to comment about that, too!

Northern Iowa: No 7-Footer, No Problem for Panthers’ Tourney Chances

The road is long and winding in Missouri Valley Conference play, and although Northern Iowa (23-3) already clinched the league’s regular-season title by punishing Creighton (13-14) 70-52 Tuesday, the Panthers should know their work is far from finished.

If anything, they’re putting the finishing touches on an NCAA Tournament-worthy résumé.

Missing seven feet of production after their second-leading scorer and top rebounder, center Jordan Eglseder, was suspended for three games following a DUI arrest, Northern Iowa has encouraged selection committee members to consider the Panthers’ loss to Bradley (13-13) Saturday to be a fluke. The Panthers blew away the Blue Jays, the team they tied for the regular-season championship last season, and improved their home record to 12-0.

This all without Eglseder’s 12.2 points and 7.6 rebounds per game.

Northern Iowa will have to face the same circumstances twice more, starting with Old Dominion (21-7) in a Friday BracketBusters game on ESPN2.

Old Dominion, tied for first place in the Colonial Athletic Association, is an RPI top 50 team, a slight improvement in the challenge department compared to 13-14 Creighton.

An Eglseder-less win over the Monarchs would only help cement Northern Iowa’s already-solid case for an NCAA Tournament at-large bid. According to ESPN bracket expert Joe Lunardi, should the tourney start today, the Panthers would be a No. 7 seed.

Old Dominion, according to the same guy, would be a No. 9 seed.

The BracketBusters match will be a break from what turns out to be meaningless-in-regards-to-conference-tournament-seeding games for the MVC champions. But neither the Panthers nor the Monarchs will want to lose any NCAA ground in the at-large bid discussions.

Once done with Old Dominion, the Panthers will only have to survive one more game without their 7-footer, on Tuesday at Evansville, which has lost 16 of its last 17 games and is dead last in the conference.

A home date with Illinois State, whom the Panthers beat last year in overtime to win the conference tournament, will be last on the regular-season schedule. A four-game winning streak to finish the year — without counting the three wins they could rack up in the MVC tourney — will be just what the Panthers need to strengthen their case for a better seed in the NCAA Tournament.