Bracket Breakdown: Long-Range Assassins Your Team Wants to Avoid
With the first round of the NCAA Tournament set to tip off in about two weeks, teams continue to jockey for better seeds and at-large bids. But regardless of how well teams play down the stretch, a streaking underdog could derail the Final Four aspirations of even the most powerful heavyweights.
The search for a team that has the potential to shock the top dogs starts on offense but ends of defense. Thanks to the three-point shot, teams can remain competitive with the big boys even if they don’t have big guys on the court. If you’re looking for a few potential NCAA Tournament teams that are especially adept at hitting the long ball, check out these teams.
| Team | 3-point % | 3-pointers/game | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cornell | 41.8% | 9.4 | 3 |
| BYU | 41.4% | 8.0 | 37 |
| Saint Mary’s | 40.9% | 8.5 | 14 |
| Memphis | 38.3% | 8.4 | 15 |
| Missouri | 38.1% | 7.9 | 40 |
| Sam Houston State | 37.9% | 9.0 | 8 |
| Oklahoma State | 35.6% | 8.2 | 23 |
All of those teams are likely to receive No. 4 seeds or worse, and all of them have the potential to catch fire from long range and make life miserable for a highly seeded team. However, to successfully pull off an upset, these underdogs need solid defense to match solid shooting. Using Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency ratings for defense, let’s sort those teams by their ability to frustrate opposing offenses.
| Team | 3-point % | 3-pointers/game | Rank | Defensive Efficiency | Def. Eff. Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri | 38.1% | 7.9 | 40 | 85.9 | 4 |
| BYU | 41.4% | 8.0 | 37 | 88.0 | 18 |
| Oklahoma State | 35.6% | 8.2 | 23 | 94.1 | 62 |
| Saint Mary’s | 40.9% | 8.5 | 14 | 97.0 | 103 |
| Memphis | 38.3% | 8.4 | 15 | 98.0 | 115 |
| Cornell | 41.8% | 9.4 | 3 | 99.1 | 102.1 |
| Sam Houston State | 37.9% | 9.0 | 8 | 102.1 | 188 |
When considering defensive efficiency and three-point shooting, Missouri and BYU look especially dangerous. BYU fans might protest that the Cougars are an elite team, especially considering that the Cougars have been a fixture in the polls for most of the season. That’s true enough, but the reality is that BYU is not likely to receive a No. 1, 2 or 3 seed. That means that by the Sweet 16, BYU would be in position to pull off a significant upset against a better-seeded team, barring other upsets.
And BYU and Missouri look primed to create all sorts of problems. Missouri is especially difficult to play against because of coach Mike Anderson’s version of 40 minutes of hell. His pressing defense forces lots of turnovers, and many of those extra possessions translate into three-pointers. Perhaps equally important, Missouri is great at defending the three-point shot, allowing opponents to shoot only 29.7 percent from behind the arc. So Missouri can beat you from long range but won’t let you do the same. That’s a recipe for success.
BYU is less successful in stopping opponents’ shooters, allowing 33.0 percent shooting from three-point territory, but that’s still better than the Division I average of 34.2 percent. Plus the Cougars have the luxury of being one of the best free throw shooting teams in the country and stingiest defenses in the paint. BYU’s three-point shooting can help keep the Cougars in the game against a No. 1 or 2 seed, and the team’s tough interior defense could deliver a major upset — perhaps even a run to the Final Four.
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