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Bracket Breakdown: Mock Tournament 7.0

March 11, 2010 Columns No Comments

We’re halfway through championship week, and 14 teams have punched their ticket to the Big Dance. From Robert Morris to Weber State, fans and players are celebrating conference championships and automatic bids. For many, a mere invitation to the NCAA Tournament is worthy of an all-night party.

But for bubble teams in power conferences, coaches’ livelihoods depend on their ability to regularly lead their team to the promised land of the NCAA Tournament. With second-round losses in the Big East tournament, Seton Hall and South Florida can only return home and wait anxiously for Selection Sunday. With a blowout loss to St. John’s in the opening round, Connecticut almost certainly will be looking at an NIT invitation rather than an NCAA Tournament bid.

The inability of Big East bubble teams to make a deep run helps the likes of Illinois, Minnesota, San Diego State and Washington. As those teams’ conference tournaments kick into full gear Thursday and Friday, they will look to accomplish what their bubble brethren could not: earn their way into the NCAA Tournament. And opportunities abound thanks to surprisingly few upsets in conference tournaments so far.

The dominant mid-major teams have done the power conference bubble teams a favor during the past week by winning their conference tournaments. Northern Iowa, Old Dominion and Butler would have likely received at-large invitations to the NCAA Tournament if they needed one. But all three won their conferences’ automatic bids, likely rendering the Missouri Valley Conference, Colonial Athletic Association and Horizon League one-bid conferences.

Because no team from outside the bubble has earned its way into the field, the latest Mock Tournament projected field remains the same. However, the shape of the bubble is shifting, with Dayton, Rhode Island, Washington, Memphis and San Diego State poised to play their way into the field. South Florida is eminently vulnerable after losing to Georgetown Wednesday. Illinois, Florida and Mississippi also figure to be replaced by one of the teams on the wrong side of the bubble if they falter in their conference tournament openers.

The light at the end of the tunnel is within view, but for nearly a dozen teams on the cusp of reaching the tournament, there’s plenty of work still to go.

Here are the latest brackets and links to previous projections.

Teams in bold have won an automatic bid.

Midwest

(St. Louis)

 (1) Kansas vs. (16) North Texas (Oklahoma City)

(8) Utah State vs. (9) Marquette (Oklahoma City)

(4) Georgetown vs. (13) Mississippi (Spokane)

(5) Maryland vs. (12) Siena (Spokane)

(2) West Virginia vs. (15) Robert Morris (Buffalo)

(7) Butler vs. (10) Virginia Tech (Buffalo)

(3) Ohio State vs. (14) Wofford (Jacksonville)

(6) Vanderbilt vs. (11) UAB (Jacksonville)

South

(Houston)

 (1) Duke vs. (16) Winthrop (Jacksonville)

(8) Old Dominion vs. (9) Texas (Jacksonville)

(4) Tennessee vs. (13) Kent State (New Orleans)

(5) Baylor vs. (12) South Florida (New Orleans)

(2) Purdue vs. (15) Oakland (Milwaukee)

(7) UNLV vs. (10) Florida State (Milwaukee)

(3) Villanova vs. (14) Morgan State (Providence)

(6) Richmond vs. (11) Georgia Tech (Providence)

West

(Salt Lake City)

 (1) Syracuse vs. (16) Lehigh/Arkansas-Pine Bluff (Buffalo)

(8) Clemson vs. (9) Gonzaga (Buffalo)

(4) Texas A&M vs. (13) Florida (San Jose)

(5) Xavier vs. (12) Cornell (San Jose)

(2) Wisconsin vs. (15) Montana (Oklahoma City)

(7) Louisville vs. (10) Missouri (Oklahoma City)

(3) New Mexico vs. (14) Santa Barbara (San Jose)

(6) Michigan State vs. (11) UTEP (San Jose)

East

(Syracuse)

 (1) Kentucky vs. (16) East Tennessee State (Milwaukee)

(8) Northern Iowa vs. (9) Notre Dame (Milwaukee)

(4) Temple vs. (13) Sam Houston State (Spokane)

(5) Oklahoma State vs. (12) California (Spokane)

(2) Pittsburgh vs. (15) Vermont (Providence)

(7) Wake Forest vs. (10) Saint Mary’s (Providence)

(3) Kansas State vs. (14) Murray State (New Orleans)

(6) BYU vs. (11) Illinois (New Orleans)

Last Eight In:

 Virginia Tech

Georgia Tech

UTEP (if needed)

UAB

Illinois

Florida

Mississippi

South Florida

First Eight Out:

 Dayton

Rhode Island

Washington

Seton Hall

Cincinnati

Memphis

San Diego State

California

Conference
Breakdown:

 Big East: 9

ACC: 7

Big 12: 7

Big Ten: 5

SEC: 5

Atlantic 10: 3

Mountain West: 3

Conference USA: 2

West Coast: 2

22 one-bid conferences

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Phil Kasiecki on Twitter

  • The next game will be on Wednesday night with Florida State at Boston College, a 7 p.m. tip. 1:57 AM February 7, 2012 from web
  • Final score: Stony Brook 57, New Hampshire 48. Stony Brook has now won 13 of 14 and is 11-1 in America East. 1:57 AM February 7, 2012 from web
  • Bryan Dougher's off-balance baseline jumper probably seals it, as it's 50-38 Stony Brook with a minute and a half to play. 1:48 AM February 7, 2012 from web
  • Chandler Rhoads just got his first points of the night to cut the UNH deficit to 48-38, but with 1:57 left it may be too little, too late. 1:47 AM February 7, 2012 from web
  • A technical was called on UNH right before the timeout, and Tommy Brenton makes both free throws for a 48-35 lead, Stony Brook ball. 1:45 AM February 7, 2012 from web
  • Stony Brook has the lead back to double digits on a runner by Dave Coley. It's 46-35 Stony Brook at the last media timeout, 2:44 left. 1:42 AM February 7, 2012 from web

Michael Protos on Twitter

  • Agree w/ this. Heels also need win to solidify case for No. 1 NCAA seed. "Is tonight a must-win for UNC? http://t.co/o6rlgoQS" about 1 hour ago from web
  • Vitale's unfettered passion partly inspired my hoops fanhood. That and the ridiculously good games of the early 90s. about 2 hours ago from web
  • No offense to Tim Brant/Mike Gminski, who are very capable, but I kinda miss gettin to hear Dickie V in pure ecstasy calling UNC/Duke. about 2 hours ago from web
  • Besides the usual bragging rights, and have a lot to prove tonight. http://t.co/35ZCHneV about 3 hours ago from web
  • Scores outside to note: Oklahoma St 69 Iowa St 67; Maryland 64 Clemson 62; Campbell 81 Coastal Carolina 75; Bama 68 Auburn 50. about 4 hours ago from web
  • RT : UNC vs Dook manager game is about to be underway. I'm playing manager for my squad. it's about to get real. about 14 hours ago from web

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