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NCAA Tournament Bracket Breakdown: Projected Field 3.0

February 25, 2011 Columns No Comments

With barely two weeks until Selection Sunday, the overall No. 1 seed remains extraordinarily unsettled.

Despite a lot of support for Ohio State, the Bracket Breakdown is rolling with Pittsburgh because of all those excellent wins. Yes, the Buckeyes have one more win against the RPI top 50, eight to Pitt’s seven. However, when you look closer, Pitt’s wins are more impressive.

Of those seven wins, all but one are against teams ranked No. 27 or better in the RPI. Ohio State has only two such wins, against Purdue and Florida. The road win against the Gators is excellent, but Florida wasn’t playing great early in the season, as Central Florida and Jacksonville can attest. In contrast, Pitt has a road win at Georgetown in addition to a neutral court victory against Texas, and the Hoyas and Longhorns have looked consistent most of the season.

Yes, Pitt has three losses while the Buckeyes only have two. But Pitt’s 25-3 record while working through the Big East is more impressive than the Buckeyes’ 26-2 record as a Big Ten team. Pitt still could slip up, which would open the door for Ohio State or Kansas, but the Panthers look to have a slight edge for the overall No. 1 seed.

Let’s get to the brackets. As always, please share your thoughts.

Here are links to the recent projected fields.

Projected Field 2.0
Projected Field 1.0

In addition, take a look at the bracket projections from a whole slew of different sources, updated daily by the good folks at the Bracket Project.

1

Pittsburgh 

Ohio State

Kansas

Texas

2

Notre Dame 

BYU

Duke

San Diego State

3

Florida 

Georgetown

Purdue

Wisconsin

4

Louisville 

St. John’s

Connecticut

Syracuse

5

West Virginia 

North Carolina

Villanova

Arizona

6

Vanderbilt 

Kentucky

Texas A&M

Missouri

7

George Mason (CAA) 

Cincinnati

Xavier (Atlantic 10)

Old Dominion

8

UNLV 

Tennessee

Temple

UCLA

9

Kansas State 

Florida State

Washington

Georgia

10

Utah State (WAC) 

Marquette

Michigan State

Illinois

11

Memphis (Conference USA) 

Minnesota

Butler

Colorado State

12

Virginia Tech vs. Marshall 

Gonzaga (West Coast)

Southern Miss vs. Nebraska

Harvard (Ivy)

13

Missouri State (Missouri Valley) 

Belmont (Atlantic Sun)

Oakland (Summit)

Charleston (Southern)

14

Fairfield (Metro Atlantic) 

Bucknell (Patriot)

Vermont (America East)

Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Horizon)

15

Kent State (MAC) 

Long Beach State (Big West)

Long Island (NEC)

Coastal Carolina (Big South)

16

Montana (Big Sky) 

Florida Atlantic (Sun Belt)

Murray State (Ohio Valley) vs. McNeese State (Southland)

Texas Southern (SWAC) vs. Bethune-Cookman (MEAC)


 

Last Eight In:

Minnesota 

Butler

Colorado State

Virginia Tech

Gonzaga (if needed)

Marshall

Southern Miss

Nebraska

First Eight Out:

Clemson 

Richmond

Dayton

Saint Mary’s

VCU

UAB

Boston College

Penn State

Conference
Breakdown:

Big East: 11 

Big 12: 6

Big Ten: 6

SEC: 5

ACC: 4

Mountain West: 4

Conference USA: 3

Pac-10: 3

Atlantic 10: 2

CAA: 2

Horizon: 2

20 one-bid conferences

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