Get familiar with this Virginia team now because you might be seeing this team for quite awhile come March.
At 8-1, Virginia has the looks of the No. 3 team in the ACC, behind Duke and North Carolina. Led by fifth-year senior Mike Scott, the Cavaliers have steamrolled through nearly every team on the schedule, winning by at least eight points in each win.
Granted, Michigan is the best team that the Cavaliers have played thus far, and that game was in Charlottesville. And the team has a pretty ugly loss to TCU in the Paradise Jam in the Virgin Islands. Despite a weak strength of schedule, ranked in the bottom 10 percent, this team is built on a sturdy foundation, with coach Tony Bennett running a slow-paced, grind-it-out strategy to wear opponents into submission.
And Scott is Bennett’s primary grinder.
Virginia’s best big man has made a nice recovery from an ankle injury that forced him to miss almost all of last season. He received a medical redshirt, gaining an extra year of eligibility. And he’s making the most of it, putting up a Total Impact Quotient of 38.8 points per game, based on Hoopville’s player ratings.
In less than 30 minutes per game, Scott is averaging 15.3 ppg and 9.1 rpg while shooting 58.4 percent from the field. Those numbers are solid for any player, but they’re even more impressive when playing for Bennett, who likes his team to walk, not sprint, up the court. According to Ken Pomeroy’s stats — yes, we’re going stats nerd on you — the Cavaliers average only 61.9 possessions per game, one of the 10 slowest teams in Division I hoops. If Scott played for North Carolina and remained equally as productive, he’d have 18.0 ppg and 10.6 rpg. That’s better than Tyler Zeller or John Henson.
For a team allowing fewer than 48 points per game, it takes a ton of pressure off everyone else when the team’s best player scores nearly one-third of what the opponent puts up in an entire game. In addition, Scott’s presence forces teams to cheat toward the post, which benefits Joe Harris and Sammy Zeglinski.
The Cavaliers’ primary scoring guards are judicious with the jump shot. Zeglinski is the most lethal 3-point shooter on the team, hitting 41.2 percent so far this season and averaging 12.4 ppg. Harris isn’t as good from long range, but he’s a better overall shooter and an outstanding free throw shooter (90.6 percent). He has a free throw rate of 41.6 percent, which is actually low for a team that gets to the line almost more than anyone else in the country.
Because Virginia doesn’t get a ton of points from 3-point range and prefers to get back on defense rather than crash the boards, the Cavaliers don’t have an outstanding offensive efficiency rating. They are averaging 1.03 points per possession, according to Pomeroy’s stats, which ranks No. 103 out of 345 D-I teams. But for a team with a great defense, reliable post scorer and good free throw shooters, that’s just fine.
The key to Virginia coming up big in conference play will be defending the long range shot and getting rebounds. The Cavs are great at both. If they can remain strong in those categories against stiffer competition, there’s no reason the Cavaliers can’t take out the Tar Heels or Blue Devils.
Well, maybe one reason. Unfortunately for Virginia, the Cavs’ only game against Duke is at Cameron Indoor Stadium. That means the team’s home game vs. North Carolina Feb. 25 could be the game of the year before the NCAA Tournament.
Much like Florida State last season, Virginia will likely have double-digit ACC wins but few great wins to hang its hat on. And that means, the Cavs will be hard pressed to earn a seed much better than 6 or 7 in the tournament, unless they find a way to take out Duke or North Carolina on the road.
But don’t let that fool you. Virginia could be the new Florida State in this year’s tournament — one of the ACC’s unheralded entrants that picks up several wins, knocking off one or two of the tournament favorites. Bennett deserves plenty of credit for getting this team to buy in to his style, and Scott is a great story, bouncing back for an excellent season. The fans in Charlottesville have plenty of reason to be optimistic heading into the final weeks of 2011.
