Home » Columns » Currently Reading:

Kentucky, SEC shatter statistical expectations; ACC underwhelms

April 4, 2012 Columns No Comments
author_protos

It’s good to be an SEC fan.

On Monday night, Kentucky completed its return to national supremacy by winning the program’s first championship since 1998. The title run marked the Wildcats’ second consecutive Final Four under coach John Calipari, who figures to make Kentucky a national championship contender pretty much every season that he’s on the sidelines.

Even though many people figured the Wildcats would cut down the nets in New Orleans, Kentucky exceeded expectations from a statistical perspective as soon as the Wildcats beat Baylor to reach the Final Four. Based on seed expectations, the typical No. 1 seed wins 3.32 games. So reaching the Elite Eight isn’t much to crow about for No. 1 seeds.

With Kentucky’s six wins in the tournament, the Wildcats helped the SEC become the best-performing conference in this year’s NCAA tournament. Besides Kentucky, Florida also delivered a strong performance, reaching the Elite Eight as a No. 7 seed. Given that seed, the Gators were expected to win 0.85 games. They won three. That’s a nice hefty boost to add to the Wildcats’ contributions. In sum, the SEC won 10 tournament games, which is nearly 70 percent more than expected based on the teams’ seeds.

Outside the SEC, most of the other major conferences pretty much did what they were supposed to do. The Big 12 and Atlantic 10 delivered about 15-20 percent more wins than expected, while the Big East and Big Ten were pretty much right on schedule. For the Big 12, Kansas’ run to the championship game helped overcome the one-and-done letdown of No. 2 Missouri.

 

Conference Expected Wins Actual Wins % More/Fewer Wins vs. Expected
SEC 5.9 10 69.49
Big 12 8.48 10 17.92
Atlantic 10 2.58 3 16.28
Big East 12.78 14 9.54
Big Ten 10.98 11 0.18
West Coast 2.39 2 -16.32
ACC 8.67 6 -30.8
Pac-12 1.5 1 -33.33
Missouri Valley 1.84 1 -45.65
Mountain West 4.21 1 -76.25
Conference USA 1.27 0 -100

 

The ACC and Pac-12 had the roughest tournaments among the Power Six conferences, though you won’t get any argument from me if you’d rather discuss Pac-12 on the same tier as the Missouri Valley or Mountain West conferences. The ACC was particularly disappointing given the Final Four aspirations of North Carolina, Duke and Florida State. The conference came up 33 percent short on its expected win total, primarily because the Blue Devils dropped a shocker in their first game against No. 15 Lehigh, while the Seminoles’ offense sputtered against No. 6 Cincinnati. North Carolina State had a surprising run to the Sweet 16, winning two games as a No. 11 seed, which usually win 0.5 games. But that wasn’t enough to make up the difference.

This tournament marks the fourth time in seven tournaments that no ACC team reached the Final Four. Before 2006, you have to go back to 1980 to find more than four tournaments that didn’t include an ACC team in the Final Four. Since the tournament expanded to include more than just one team from a conference in 1975, there has never been a three-year stretch in which the Final Four hasn’t included an ACC team. The pressure is on for 2013.

Comment on this Article:







Advertisement

Coaching Changes and NBA Draft Early Entrants

The coaching carousel is moving. Keep track of the latest coaching changes right here on Hoopville.

Also, keep track of players who have declared early for the NBA Draft.

Your Phil of Hoops

Simply put, Syracuse needs to improve offensively

November 22, 2014 by

syracuse

Jim Boeheim didn’t have many things to say about his team’s offense, but that said it all. It’s at that end of the floor that Syracuse’s fate this season will be determined.

Growing pains are here for talented Brown team

November 20, 2014 by

brown

Brown has good talent and should be a factor in the Ivy League, but with three sophomores starting on the perimeter, growing pains are in the foreseeable future

New season, same challenge for New Hampshire

November 15, 2014 by

newhampshire

It’s a new season at New Hampshire, and while the Wildcats look like they will defend, they also appear to have the same challenge they have had for a long time now: scoring.

Hoopville Archives

Reader Poll

This poll is closed! Poll activity:
start_date 17/11/2014 12:00:00
end_date 22/11/2014 00:00:00
Poll Results:
Which conference will be the best one in 2014-15?

2014 Prep School Tour

Missed a recap of an open gym workout? We have them all right here for you.

Sept. 9: Putnam Science Academy
Sept 10: Commonwealth Academy
Sept. 11: St. Andrew's
Sept. 12: Northfield Mount Hermon
Sept. 16: Brewster Academy and Phillips Exeter
Sept. 17: Brooks School
Sept. 21: Holderness School
Sept. 23: St. Thomas More and Marianapolis Prep
Sept. 24: South Kent School and Kent School
Sept. 25: Williston Northampton
Sept. 28: Wilbraham and Monson Academy and Suffield Academy
Sept. 30: New Hampton
Oct. 5: Worcester Academy
Oct. 7: Brimmer and May
Oct. 8: Cushing Academy
Oct. 9: Tilton
Oct. 12: Tabor Academy and Rivers School
Oct. 14: The Master's School
Oct. 16: Vermont Academy

You can also find them all right here.

Phil Kasiecki on Twitter

Recruiting Coverage

New England Prep Schools 2014-15: looking back and looking ahead

November 3, 2014 by

nepsac

With a series of prep school open gym visits in the book and the season not far away, here’s a look back at open gyms and a look forward to the season in the New England prep school ranks.

Marianapolis Prep will battle in Class AA

October 20, 2014 by

marianapolis

Marianapolis Prep is far from loaded with talent, but they have enough perimeter talent to be dangerous. As is usually the case, they will battle and be a tough out in Class AA.

New Vermont Academy coach has put together a contender

October 17, 2014 by

vermontacademy

Vermont Academy has a new coach for the second year in a row, but they shouldn’t skip a beat. They have enough talent to win a lot of games and make a deep run in NEPSAC Class AA.

The Master’s School has good students and talent

October 15, 2014 by

mastersschool

The Master’s School has a number of good students, and they will continue to head to college later. This time around, they also have some talent on the hardwood and should win a few more games.

Rivers will try to build on a breakthrough season

October 13, 2014 by

riversschool

The Rivers School had a breakthrough season last year, winning the Independent School League. They will try to build on that with a team that loses a lot but also returns a lot from last season’s team.