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How bright is Rutgers’ future now?

NEW YORK – Not long after Mike Rice was named the head coach at Rutgers, there was reason to believe better times were ahead. Rice has lots of connections in New Jersey to, in theory, finally get some of the top talent in the talent-rich state. The thought was that Rutgers finally had the right guy running the program. But with his third season at the school now almost certainly in the books, the future seems more murky than one would have expected.

After losing to Notre Dame 69-61 in the second round of the Big East Tournament, Rutgers finishes the season 14-16. There is a slim chance a postseason tournament without the requirement of a .500 record will come calling, but chances are they have played their last basketball of the season. They went 5-13 in Big East play and finished 12th, which is one spot below where they were picked in the preseason poll. They were 14-18 overall last season, including a 6-12 record in Big East play. They were a young team this season, but the lack of bottom line results is just part of the story.

It was a season that senior Austin Johnson described as “an emotional roller coaster at times.”

The Scarlet Knights started out promising enough, bouncing back from a season-opening loss at St. Peter’s and playing through some other adversity to win nine of their next ten in non-conference play. But the 9-2 record was compiled against a soft schedule that featured just one NCAA Tournament team, MAAC champion Iona. Included in that time was a well-documented suspension of Rice where he was ordered to have no contact with the team for abusive behavior toward his players. Rice is a fiery coach, and this time he had stepped over the line.

Rice’s 41-51 record alone probably wouldn’t have him on the hot seat entering next season, but this incident helps. Chances are, with his first recruiting class about to be juniors, progress next season on the bottom line would be necessary. This incident just adds to it.

The Scarlet Knights lose just two seniors in Johnson and Dane Miller, so a lot of production comes back. Miller never really developed after a nice freshman year and Johnson was a solid glue guy. The bulk of the team’s production returns, and it will be time for the likes of Myles Mack, Eli Carter, Wally Judge, Jerome Seagears and Kadeem Jack to start living up to their billing coming out of high school. Carter’s fractured fibula that ended his season early certainly didn’t help matters as he was having a good year, but thus far only he and Mack, the latter of whom led the Big East in three-point field goal percentage this season, have produced at the level expected. Perhaps Judge will be better in his second season after transferring.

The incidents that got Rice suspended could come into play indirectly. How well he can reach his players might be in some question going forward, although he recruited the bulk of this team. Rice said the team didn’t come out with good energy and it took a lot to get them going later on, by which time it was too late.

“Coaching staff had to do cartwheels and cheering and yelling and screaming to get these guys, and when they did respond, that was the Rutgers that we had seen through the last month,” said Rice.

Rice likes to play a lot of players to keep his best players fresh down the stretch. He’s done that thus far, although the Scarlet Knights also used a number of different starting lineups this season and nine different players started at least one game. If they are healthy next season that should change and the lineup should be more stable.

Rutgers got exposed in Big East play for their soft non-conference schedule. The Scarlet Knights shot below 41 percent in Big East play and turned it over nearly 14 times per game. They were also out-rebounded. That all stands in stark contrast to much better numbers in non-conference and thus in their overall numbers.

There is still some reason for optimism for Rutgers fans, but that may be waning compared to where it was at the beginning of the year. This wasn’t a big step forward for this team, and Rice’s suspension didn’t help matters. They did win a Big East Tournament game, but it was against a bad DePaul team, so their play in New York is a minor step forward. Next season will tell us a lot about whether Rice’s tenure will be one where the program breaks out and has success or continues to struggle to contend in the Big East and later the Big Ten.

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