Purdue: Without Hummel, Boilermakers Seek Validation

With a 24-3 record that includes four wins against the RPI top 25, Purdue appeared on pace to receive a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament before losing junior forward Robbie Hummel to a torn ACL for the remainder of the season.

But with Hummel out, Purdue should consider the team’s record 0-0, at least until this weekend. The NCAA Tournament selection committee will be watching the Boilermakers closely to see whether the team that ends the regular season without Hummel resembles the team that played its first 27 games with the team’s second-leading scorer. Hummel was a critical piece to Purdue’s attack, averaging 15.7 points and 6.9 rebounds per game while shooting 36.4 percent from three-point range and 90.2 percent from the free throw line.

Purdue’s new season starts Sunday when Michigan State comes to West Lafayette seeking revenge for a 76-64 loss in East Lansing a few weeks ago. If the Boilermakers can rack up its seventh win against the RPI top 50, they will take a major step forward in validating a fantastic season, even with Hummel watching from the sidelines. And the Spartans might be the right team for Purdue to face in its first game without Hummel. Although the national runner-up from a year ago has a potentially potent roster, Michigan State has lost four of its past six games, and five of the team’s seven losses have been away from the Izzone.

After Michigan State, Purdue ends the regular season against Indiana and Penn State. If Purdue falls to the Spartans, the Boilermakers must bounce back against the Big Ten’s bottom-feeders to avoid dropping significantly in seeding. Penn State and Indiana have an RPI of 200 or worse. Considering that the Boilermakers have no losses to teams outside the RPI top 100, a loss to the Nittany Lions or Hoosiers would signify that Purdue is not as potent without Hummel.

The bottom line is that experts and fans won’t know what to expect until the Boilermakers return to action. However, if Tuesday’s come-from-behind win at Minnesota is any indication, coach Matt Painter will have his team ready to play stifling defense. And the team will likely continue to play efficient offense. The Boilermakers finished the Minnesota game with 45.3 percent shooting from the field, including 35 percent from three-point territory, while committing only seven turnovers. Purdue is one of the best teams in Division I at avoiding mistakes, and Painter will emphasize that the team has a slimmer margin for error without Hummel.

Duke: Blue Devils Don’t Get Enough Credit

In recent years, the two teams that bookend Tobacco Road have garnered so much national praise that by March, many college basketball fans are reciting their ABCDs: Anybody But Carolina or Duke!

But this year has a different feel. North Carolina has suffered a full nuclear meltdown, and the ACC has only one representative in either poll: Duke. And for some reason, the Blue Devils don’t seem to be receiving much attention. However, in about six weeks in Indianapolis, the basketball nation will likely be wondering where in the world these Devils came from.

Entering the final week of February, Duke possesses the most potent offense in basketball with an efficiency rating of 123.6, according to Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency statistics. To better appreciate Duke’s offensive prowess, consider that only 14 teams in the past six NCAA Tournaments have had an offensive efficiency rating of 123.0 or better. Nine of those 14 teams reached the Final Four, and four of them cut down the nets in the past five years. Of those 14 teams, only Wake Forest in 2005 failed to reach the Sweet 16, which can largely be attributed to a terrible defense that was ranked No. 72 in defensive efficiency.

The trio of Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith runs Duke’s offensive juggernaut. As Ken Pomeroy’s team reports indicate, Scheyer is one of the most productive offensive players in the country. His statistics back up that rating: 18.9 points per game, 39.8 percent shooting from three-point range, 88.5 percent shooting from the free throw line and a better than 3:1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Combined, the three lead Devils average 53.7 points, 13.5 rebounds, 10.6 assists and 3.9 steals per game. They each shoot better than 39 percent from three-point range and 77 percent from the free throw line.

Besides the big three, Duke has some key role players who can take the pressure off Singler, Smith and Scheyer. The Plumlee brothers, Lance Thomas and Brian Zoubek give coach Mike Krzyzewski more depth in the frontcourt than he’s had in years. The Blue Devils are perilously thin in the backcourt. But Scheyer and Smith show no signs of diminishing production despite averaging more than 35 minutes per game.

Duke also has a good shot at making a deep NCAA Tournament run because the team is  well balanced. Duke ranks No. 12 in defensive efficiency and is the second-best team in the nation at guarding the three-point line. That’s a critical skill to have in the early rounds of the NCAA Tournament, when many upset-minded teams use the three-point line to score in bunches.

The scary part about Duke is that the Blue Devils figure to be an even better, more balanced team next season. Duke has Stephen Curry’s baby brother, Seth, sitting on the bench as a sweet-shooting transfer from Liberty. Curry averaged 20.2 points per game and hit 102 three-pointers last season. In addition, Duke will add five-star recruit Kyrie Irving to provide more depth at point guard, and freshman guard Andre Dawkins will have one season of experience under his belt.

But these Blue Devils are focused on the present, with senior guard Scheyer prepared to lead Duke to the promised land of the Final Four for the first time since 2004. Unless this team runs out of steam in the next few weeks, only bad luck — meaning drawing Kansas in its bracket — will keep Duke out of Indianapolis.

Bracket Breakdown: Mock Tournament 2.0

After this weekend’s action, the Mock Tournament 2.0 has a shakeup at the top, with Kentucky replacing Villanova as a No. 1 seed.

I was probably one of the few analysts to leave the Wildcats from Kentucky out of the No. 1 seed club in Mock Tournament 1.0. However, until Kentucky won at Vanderbilt Saturday night, the Wildcats had only two wins against the RPI top 50. Villanova only matched that total but had better marquee wins against West Virginia and Georgetown. Plus Villanova had six wins against the RPI top 50 compared to Kentucky’s four.

But since the last mock brackets arrived three days ago, Kentucky proved that it is one of the toughest teams in basketball by winning a war with the Commodores. Meanwhile, Villanova continued to show its weaknesses in a tight loss at Pittsburgh. Both sets of Wildcats went on the road to face a talented conference opponent that was ranked about No. 10 in the RPI, but only Kentucky’s ‘Cats emerged victorious. That moves them ahead of Villanova for a No. 1 spot.

The other noteworthy change among top seeds is Wake Forest’s departure from the top four seeds. The Demon Deacons suffered a blowout loss at North Carolina State, a team outside the RPI top 100. The Demon Deacons still have a solid RPI at No. 21 and have played the 24th toughest schedule. But they have only win against the RPI top 25, against No. 19 Xavier.

Ohio State steps into the No. 4 seed vacated by the Demon Deacons on the strength of Sunday’s win at Michigan State, the team’s fourth win against the RPI top 25. The Buckeyes now possess road wins against three of the Big Ten’s best: Purdue, Michigan State and Illinois. Wisconsin got past the Buckeyes while Evan Turner was hurt, but Ohio State got revenge in Columbus with a 60-51 win. Ohio State’s resurgence in Big Ten play compensates for a non-conference run devoid of big wins, with the best victories coming against Florida State and California.

At the other end of the brackets, here are the noteworthy changes on the bubble:

• Charlotte drops out of the field and is the first team out.
• Saint Mary’s move into the field.
• Connecticut and Florida are much closer to the field than they were three days ago.
• Cincinnati and William & Mary are one bad loss away from being on the wrong side of the bubble.

Take a look at the Mock Tournament 2.0 brackets. Any better than the first attempt? Let us know by leaving a comment.

CAA: Colonial Teams Get Bracket Busted

Entering the ESPN BracketBusters event this weekend, the Colonial Athletic Association had possibly the most to gain. Twelve games later, the CAA lost more ground in race for the NCAA Tournament than any other conference.

According to the RPI, the CAA is the 12^th best conference in the country. But the conference’s top teams lost to the cream of the crop from the Missouri Valley Conference, Southern Conference and Western Athletic Conference. William & Mary, which has one of the CAA’s best profiles for an at-large bid, suffered the most damaging loss in a road game against Iona, ranked No. 92 in the RPI, by 16 points. The only elite CAA team to win was VCU, which won a home game against Akron, ranked No. 100 in the RPI. The rest of the CAA pack didn’t fare much better as the conference ended BracketBusters with a 3-9 record.

Old Dominion, Northeastern and William & Mary had the most to gain in their BracketBusters match ups. But Old Dominion couldn’t solve Northern Iowa’s suffocating defense en route to a 71-62 loss. Despite the defeat, the Monarchs have a solid résumé anchored by a marquee win at Georgetown. Old Dominion doesn’t have too many other great wins to brag about, but the Moncarchs have notched good wins against Charlotte, William & Mary (twice) and Marshall. As co-leader of the CAA, Old Dominion should receive an invitation to the NCAA Tournament even if the Monarchs lose early in the CAA Tournament.

Unfortunately for the CAA, the Monarchs are the only team that can feel comfortable about their NCAA Tournament prospects. William & Mary has stumbled too many times since racking up non-conference victories against Richmond, Wake Forest and Maryland. The Tribe has two ugly losses to James Madison and UNC-Wilmington, both of which have RPIs worse than 200. The loss to Iona in the BracketBusters event, which was televised on ESPNU, might be the death knell for the Tribe’s tournament aspirations.

After starting 2-7, Northeastern had won 16 of 18 games heading into its home match up against Louisiana Tech in the BracketBusters event. The best wins were against Kent State and CAA-foes like Old Dominion and VCU. The Huskies likely needed to beat Louisiana Tech to prove that their turnaround was complete. However, a three-point loss drops Northeastern to 18-10 and likely in need of the CAA’s automatic bid to reach the NCAA Tournament.

The lone member of the CAA elite to win a BracketBusters game was VCU, which stands at No. 61 in the RPI. The Rams have a couple of quality wins against Rhode Island and Old Dominion. But those are offset by bad losses to James Madison and Western Michigan. VCU closes the regular season at Old Dominion, which is an opportunity to pick up a quality road win. That would be the team’s fifth win against the RPI top 50. Even if the Rams enter the CAA Tournament with a 21-7 record, VCU almost certainly would need to win the automatic bid to reach the Big Dance.

Come Selection Sunday, the second-to-last weekend of February will likely be one of the big reasons why the CAA remains a one-bid conference when the selection committee reveals the brackets at the end of the second weekend of March.

Bracket Breakdown: You Be the Judge

The selection committee has the unenviable task of parsing razor-thin differences among a dozen or more teams that are competing for the last invitations to the NCAA Tournament. Take a shot at picking which four teams should make the field from the eight profiles. The teams’ identities are below. And check which teams the Bracket Breakdown predicts to make the field as of Feb. 19 in the Mock Tournament 1.0.

Team A (Overall: 18-7, Conference: 7-4)

• RPI: 34
• Strength of schedule: 40, Non-conference SOS: 21
• Record vs. RPI top 50: 3-5
• Losses to teams outside RPI top 100: 1
• Record in neutral/road games: 4-7
• Conference’s RPI: 6
• Best wins (teams listed by RPI):  vs. 24, vs. 27 (neutral court), vs. 41, vs. 51
• Worst losses (teams listed by RPI): at 194, at 85

Team B (Overall: 18-8, Conference: 7-4)

• RPI: 61
• Strength of schedule: 77, Non-conference SOS: 168
• Record vs. RPI top 50: 2-6
• Losses to teams outside RPI top 100: 1
• Record in neutral/road games: 6-5
• Conference’s RPI: 4
• Best wins (teams listed by RPI):  vs. 22 (neutral court), vs. 39, vs. 63
• Worst losses (teams listed by RPI: vs. 218, at 76

Team C (Overall: 17-9, Conference: 7-7)

• RPI: 62
• Strength of schedule: 42, Non-conference SOS: 2391
• Record vs. RPI top 50: 2-3
• Losses to teams outside RPI top 100: 2
• Record in neutral/road games: 1-7
• Conference’s RPI: 8
• Best wins (teams listed by RPI): vs. 16, vs. 26, at 89
• Worst losses (teams listed by RPI: vs. 175, at 119

Team D (Overall: 18-8, Conference: 6-5)

• RPI: 63
• Strength of schedule: 111, Non-conference SOS: 238
• Record vs. RPI top 50: 1-3
• Losses to teams outside RPI top 100: 3
• Record in neutral/road games: 6-6
• Conference’s RPI: 4
• Best wins (teams listed by RPI):  vs. 41 (neutral court), twice vs. and at 54
• Worst losses (teams listed by RPI: at 165, vs. 141, at 114, at 93

Team E (Overall: 19-7, Conference: 7-5)

• RPI: 44
• Strength of schedule: 68, Non-conference SOS: 190
• Record vs. RPI top 50: 4-4
• Losses to teams outside RPI top 100: 2
• Record in neutral/road games: 9-3
• Conference’s RPI: 7
• Best wins (teams listed by RPI):  at 9, vs. 19, vs. 30, vs. 37
• Worst losses (teams listed by RPI): twice vs. and at 147, vs. 72 (neutral court)

Team F (Overall: 17-9, Conference: 9-4)

• RPI: 71
• Strength of schedule: 80, Non-conference SOS: 135
• Record vs. RPI top 50: 4-5
• Losses to teams outside RPI top 100: 2
• Record in neutral/road games: 5-6
• Conference’s RPI: 5
• Best wins (teams listed by RPI):  vs. 12, at 20, vs. 22, at 36
• Worst losses (teams listed by RPI): vs. 147 (neutral court), vs. 116 (neutral court), at 92, at 91

Team G (Overall: 21-4, Conference: 8-3)

• RPI: 45
• Strength of schedule: 186, Non-conference SOS: 342
• Record vs. RPI top 50: 2-2
• Losses to teams outside RPI top 100: 0
• Record in neutral/road games: 7-4
• Conference’s RPI: 3
• Best wins (teams listed by RPI):  vs. 15, vs. 36, vs. 52 (neutral court)
• Worst losses (teams listed by RPI): at 83, at 81

Team H (Overall: 17-8, Conference: 5-6)

• RPI: 54
• Strength of schedule: 59, Non-conference SOS: 133
• Record vs. RPI top 50: 1-5
• Losses to teams outside RPI top 100: 1
• Record in neutral/road games: 6-5
• Conference’s RPI: 4
• Best wins (teams listed by RPI):
• Worst losses (teams listed by RPI: vs. 114, twice vs. and at 63

The results are:

Team A: Dayton

Team B: Florida

Team C: Washington

Team D: Mississippi State

Team E: UNLV

Team F: Illinois

Team G: Virginia Tech

Team H: Mississippi

Bracket Breakdown: Mock Tournament 1.0

Only 22 days remain until Selection Sunday, the Christmahannukwanzakah of March for college basketball fans. The bracket projections turn to reality shortly after 6 p.m. EST March 14. In the days following Selection Sunday, office productivity creaks to a halt as bracket brainiacs nationwide crunch the numbers in search of the perfect picks.

With about three weeks to go before Selection Sunday, the Bracket Breakdown’s initial outlook foresees a remarkably stable group of teams competing for the 34 at-large bids. The top 36 teams all appear to be safe picks as participants in the Big Dance. That makes the last eight in the field — plus Virginia Tech for good measure — as the only teams that the Bracket Breakdown considers in danger of a collapse. Of course, those teams will start to sweat if they go on losing streaks to end the regular season. And as usual, conference tournaments can wreak havoc when teams like Butler and Northern Iowa allow a second team to represent the Horizon League or Missouri Valley Conference, respectively, which smell like one-bid conferences right now.

During the next few weeks, Bracket Breakdown will publish mock brackets on Mondays and Fridays until Championship Week, when the frequency will increase as the field crystalizes. From the emergence of the Atlantic 10 as one of the top conferences to the invitation of William & Mary for the first time in the Tribe’s 104-year history, here is Mock  Tournament 1.0. Take a look, and submit a comment if you think we’re off base. Of course, if you agree with our projects, feel free to comment about that, too!

William & Mary: A Tribe Called on a Quest

William & Mary has been playing basketball for 104 years and never received an invitation to the Big Dance, one of 32 Division I teams that haven’t made it. With a few more wins and a little bubble love, the Tribe will set school history this season with a trip to the promised land of the NCAA Tournament.

At 19-7 as of Feb. 17, William & Mary will enter the CAA Tournament as one of the favorites to score the conference’s automatic bid, which would make Selection Sunday far less stressful for coach Tony Shaver and his Tribe. William & Mary’s biggest competition will come from Old Dominion, which claims two of the Tribe’s five CAA losses. Two of those conferences losses could jeopardize an otherwise spectacular season.

Entering conference play, William & Mary sported a top 35 RPI on the strength of three huge wins against Richmond, Wake Forest and Maryland. The Tribe took out the two ACC foes on the road, too, to goose the RPI even higher. In addition, William & Mary served notice in its first CAA game by taking out VCU, a perennial CAA favorite.

However, the Tribe sputtered against UNC-Wilmington and James Madison, two teams with an RPI below 200. Those are ugly losses that might stick out like a sore thumb to selection committee members. But that would be a disservice to William & Mary and trivialize the team’s fantastic non-conference wins. And the Tribe hasn’t slacked off much in conference play. As of Feb. 17, the Tribe remains in the RPI top 50, ranked No. 48, and are 3-3 against the four other top CAA teams.

Before William & Mary starts thinking about setting school history with its first trip to the NCAA Tournament, the Tribe will likely celebrate another rare feat. With one more win, the Tribe will notch its 20th win of the season, which would be only the third time in team history they reached that total. With Iona, Towson and a revenge game at UNC-Wilmington, the Tribe could easily have 22 wins entering the conference tournament.

If William & Mary reaches the semifinals of the conference tournament and loses to Old Dominion for a third time this season, the second week of March will seem like an eternity leading to Selection Sunday. The Tribe has a profile that looks better than bubble teams like Wichita State, Mississippi and Seton Hall. However, some bubble teams, like Connecticut, Louisville and Marquette, have the luxury of notching a marquee win against top 10 competition. Will the selection committee dock William & Mary because the Tribe don’t play in the Big East? If the Tribe can get to 23 wins, committee members would be making a huge mistake in taking a middle-of-the-pack major conference team over a mid-major powerhouse that has proven it can hang with the big boys from power conferences.

Maryland: Bubble Boys Could Turn Into Cinderella

For the fifth time in six years, Maryland prepares for the stretch run as a bubble team. Although the Terrapins sit precariously close to the bubble, they also have the profile of a team that could cause trouble in the NCAA Tournament, and the emergence of a senior guard not named Greivis Vasquez might be the ticket to glory in the Big Dance.

After an impressive 6-2 start to conference play, everyone seemed to assume that the second-place ACC team would earn a bid to the tournament. But the Terrapins’ profile doesn’t back up that assumption. Of those six wins, four were against the bottom third of the conference: North Carolina, North Carolina State, Miami and Boston College. It’s not Maryland’s fault that the Tar Heels are in a funk this season, but the team doesn’t deserve any more or less credit for slamming North Carolina, ranked No. 80 in the RPI, than Gonzaga should get for beating Portland, ranked No. 78.

As the middle of February passes, Maryland has only two wins against the RPI top 50 thanks to the Terrapins’ regular-season sweep of Florida State. Besides those two wins, Maryland has whiffed on each opportunity to pick up a marquee win, with losses to Wisconsin, Villanova, Wake Forest and Duke. This past weekend’s embarrassing 21-point defeat to the Blue Devils, Maryland’s biggest rival, is especially stinging.

If the selection committee had to decide the field on the afternoon of Feb. 15, Maryland would probably be in the NCAA Tournament. But the Terps could easily be among the final four teams even though few experts are discussing the team as in danger of missing the tournament. Somewhat paradoxically, Maryland has the look of a team that could make a fairly deep March run — if they make the tournament at all — and the Terrapins only need to make subtle tweaks to become a truly potent squad.

Maryland is one of only nine teams to rank in the top 25 for offensive and defensive efficiency, according to Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency statistics. On offense, the team shoots 38.6 percent from three-point territory, good for No. 27 in the country. And they don’t let teams beat them from behind the arc, as opponents shoot only 32.1 percent from three-point range. That improvement might be the biggest defensive change from last season, when Maryland let opponents shoot 34.7 percent from three-point territory. That liability led to an 89-70 blowout to Memphis in the second round of the NCAA Tournament when the Tigers hit 10-of-19 three-pointers to build an early insurmountable lead.

Although the team’s efficiency statistics are strong, they might be even better if senior guard Eric Hayes gets more involved on offense. A Terp fan might wonder how a senior who already plays 30.4 minutes, which is No. 2 on the team to Vasquez, needs to have an even bigger role. However, despite his playing time, Hayes is only involved in about 15.5 percent of Maryland’s offensive possessions, according to Pomeroy’s team-by-team breakdowns. And that’s not enough involvement for a player who shoots 45.2 percent from three-point range, 53.5 percent from inside the arc and 92.3 percent from the free throw line.

In comparison to his teammates, Hayes is the No. 6 offensive weapon, behind Vasquez, Landon Milbourne, Sean Mosley, Jordan Williams and Adrian Bowie. Cliff Tucker and James Padgett play fewer than 16 minutes per game, but when they’re in the game, they also have a higher percentage of involvement on offense than Hayes does. Coach Gary Williams needs to make sure that Hayes becomes more than just a decoy down the stretch. For his part, Hayes must be more active on offense and work to get open. With a great guard like Vasquez, opponents must constantly follow him around the court, which should give Hayes more room to operate.

If Williams can devise a few extra plays to go Hayes’ way each game, he could easily become involved in about 20 percent of the team’s possessions. That doesn’t mean he has to force a shot every time he touches the ball. But based on his shooting percentages, Hayes already knows what a good shot is. So if Maryland feeds him more, at least to match the offensive importance of Milbourne, the Terrapins’ offensive efficiency could soar closer to the top 10 by the beginning of March Madness.

For the record, in the past four NCAA Tournaments, 21 of the 25 teams that had offensive and defensive efficiency ratings in the top 20 reached at least the Sweet 16. And right now, that means the Terrapins would probably be one of the most dangerous No. 7-12 seeds in recent memory.

Bracket Breakdown: Three Conference Tournaments That Bubble Teams Should Fear

Conference tournaments will start in about two weeks, and bubble teams from San Diego State to Connecticut will cross their fingers that the NCAA Tournament-worthy favorites from one-bid conferences take care of business.

Three conference tournaments in particular figure to stress out the fringe tournament teams. The Horizon League, Missouri Valley Conference and Western Athletic Conference have the looks of one-bid conferences. But if those conferences’ leaders fail to receive the automatic bid by winning their conference tournament, they have a good shot of making the tournament with an at-large bid.

Butler is the most comfortable conference leader of the three, as the Bulldogs remain undefeated in the Horizon League. Despite posting only two wins against the RPI top 50, the Bulldogs are ranked No. 17 in the RPI, thanks largely to a non-conference slate ranked No. 14 in difficulty. The good news for bubble teams is that the Horizon League tournament will be in Butler’s backyard in Indianapolis. And Butler has dominated the Horizon League’s most likely threats, beating Cleveland State, Wright State and Green Bay six times by an average of 14 points.

In the Missouri Valley, Northern Iowa has four more conference wins than second-place Wichita State. The Panthers sport a higher RPI than Butler at 15, though that will likely change tomorrow because Northern Iowa dropped a road game to Bradley, only the team’s second loss in conference play. Despite two losses to teams outside the RPI top 100, Northern Iowa still figures to receive an at-large bid if necessary because the team is 22-3 and has two wins against the RPI top 50. However, Northern Iowa’s road to the conference’s automatic bid is tougher than Butler’s. The tournament will be in St. Louis, and the Panthers have not exactly blown out most MIssouri Valley opponents — winning by less than 10 points in six of 13 victories.

Utah State would likely join the bubble if the Aggies lose in the WAC tournament in Reno, Nev. Although the Aggies have the best marquis win of Butler, Northern Iowa and Utah State — against BYU — they also have the most losses, six, including two against teams outside the RPI top 100. Utah State has a respectable strength of schedule hovering around 100, and the Aggies might continue to rise if they finish strongly in the 10th toughest conference. With four home games remaining, the Aggies could easily enter the WAC tournament with 24 wins. However, playing in Reno means the Nevada Wolf Pack will have home-court advantage knowing they must earn the conference’s automatic bid to make the NCAA Tournament. If Utah State loses to the Wolf Pack in the WAC championship game, the conference could end up with two bids in the NCAA Tournament.

With nearly half the Big East on the bubble, several prominent teams, such as Louisville, Connecticut and Marquette, will need to hope that Butler, Northern Iowa and Utah State ensure that seemingly one-bid conferences don’t unexpectedly become two-bid conferences. All three conference favorites will face upset-minded opponents in their tournaments, especially when their opponents know they can only earn an NCAA Tournament bid by receiving an automatic bid.

Bracket Breakdown: Why Your Team Really Wants a Top Three Seed

With the Pac-10′s struggles this season, the Mountain West is in position to place more teams with better seeds in the NCAA Tournament. New Mexico, which sits atop the Mountain West, is poised to benefit the most because the Lobos are a viable candidate for a No. 3 seed or better, which might just be the ticket for an improbable Final Four run.

Since 2000, 80 percent of all Final Four participants have had a No. 1, 2 or 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Although the George Masons of the basketball nation dream of a Cinderella run to the Final Four, only eight teams in the past 10 years made it with a seed worse than No. 3. And it only happened in four seasons: 2000, 2002, 2005, 2006. Since LSU and George Mason did it in 2006, the top seeds have reasserted their domination with eight No. 1 seeds, three No. 2 seeds and one No. 3 seed filling the 12 spots of the 2007, 2008 and 2009 Final Fours.

New Mexico is a long shot to reach the Final Four. Vegas gives the team only 200:1 odds to win the national championship, which matches the odds for Iowa and Iowa State, which have no chance at reaching the NCAA Tournament without an automatic bid. But the Lobos will have a statistically much better chance if they can continue to rack up quality wins and earn a top three seed.

After beating UNLV Wednesday night, the Lobos have seven wins against the RPI top 50, which ties them with Duke for second most. The knock on New Mexico is the lack of an elite win. The best win on the team’s résumé is a neutral court victory against Texas A&M. That makes the Lobos vulnerable to being leap-frogged by teams like Pittsburgh, Tennessee an Temple — all of which have elite victories (Pitt won at Syracuse, Tennessee handed Kansas its only loss, and Temple claims one of Villanova’s two losses).

Logically, teams that are good enough to earn a No. 1, 2 or 3 seed have the proven performance and talent to contend for a Final Four spot. In addition, they have an easier road than No. 4 seeds and lower. Is there really a major difference between the No. 12 and 13 teams in the country entering the NCAA Tournament? Probably not. However, the No. 12 team gets a No. 3 seed and is likely to draw a No. 6 seed — in theory, a team ranked somewhere between 21 and 24 — in the second round. On the other hand, the No. 4 seed most likely draws a No. 5 seed in the second round. Depending on where the selection committee slots teams, the No. 13 team could draw the No. 17 team in the country.

The second round match ups don’t follow a classic S-curve pattern — in which the best No. 4 seed would play the worst No. 5 seed — because the selection committee stops following the pattern after the top 16 teams. From there, they place teams based on other tournament rules, such as avoiding conference match ups and rematches of early season games. For a team like New Mexico, a No. 3 seed could mean a likely second round match up against an opponent such as Xavier or Butler. However, slipping to No. 4 could produce Georgia Tech or Michigan State.

In addition to the luck of the draw, seeding matters in determining where a team plays. The selection committee awards favorable first and second round locations based on seed. So expect to see Kansas in Oklahoma City and Syracuse in Buffalo. Do you think Jayhawk and Orange fans will drive four hours or less to see their teams play? Oh yes. For New Mexico, Oklahoma City is the only location for opening-round games located within a 12-hour drive of Albuquerque. That makes the Lobos’ push for a No. 3 seed — preferably ahead of Texas — even more important. Otherwise, New Mexico could find itself heading to San Jose, where misfortune could produce a second-round match up with Gonzaga and a hostile crowd.

Championship teams require talent, and they often are peaking at the right time of year. For teams on the cusp of joining the elite, the difference between a Final Four run and second-round exit might be one spot on the selection committee’s S curve, giving one team a No. 3 seed and the other a No. 4 seed.

Bracket Breakdown: Which Wildcats Deserve a No. 1 Spot?

Selection Sunday is barely a month away, and the top teams are battling for a No. 1 seed as heartily as bubble teams are fighting just to make the field.

At this point, Syracuse and Kansas are in excellent position to grab two of the four No. 1 seeds in the tournament. Both teams have only one loss — to an RPI top 25 team — and have combined for 12 wins against the RPI top 50. They rank among the top 15 in overall strength of schedule and top 50 for non-conference strength of schedule. There’s little debate that the Orange and Jayhawks are top seeds right now. The only question is which team would be the overall No. 1 seed in the tournament.

However, filling out the other two No. 1 seeds is more challenging. Among other teams, the list of contestants for those spots includes a bunch of Wildcats — from Villanova, Kentucky and Kansas State. If you rely on the polls and win/loss records, Villanova and Kentucky look like locks for those top seeds. They rank No. 2 and No. 4 in the AP poll, respectively, and No. 2 and No. 3 in the coaches’ poll. Both teams have only one loss entering this weekend.

Although they own impressive records, Villanova and Kentucky reside near the top of the polls because they benefit from national press coverage. With stars like Scottie Reynolds, John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins — plus high-profile coaches in Jay Wright and John Calipari — the Wildcats from Pennsylvania and Kentucky are basking in the media spotlight and reaping the rewards. However, if you focus on results, the Wildcats from Kansas have an equally compelling — if not better — case for a No. 1 seed.

Although Kansas State sports four losses, the team has twice as many wins against the RPI top 50  than Kentucky. Kansas State also has more wins against the RPI top 25 than Kentucky and Villanova combined. Kansas State’s victims include Baylor, UNLV and Dayton — all on the road or at neutral sites. At home, Kansas State also can crow about wins against Xavier and Texas.

In contrast, Kentucky’s only win against the RPI top 25 came last weekend in Lexington against Vanderbilt. Other solid wins for Calipari’s club include Connecticut, Louisville and Mississippi. However, the sum of Kentucky’s parts is a schedule ranked No. 68 overall. Its non-conference schedule strength is less impressive at No. 123. Calipari kept his team close to home until SEC play, venturing out to play only one true road game, a 90-73 win at rebuilding Indiana.

In Kentucky’s defense, it’s not the team’s fault that North Carolina and Connecticut have been inconsistent this season. In most years, wins against the Tar Heels and Huskies would easily be part of the profile of a No. 1 seed. But those teams’ struggles are Kansas State’s gain. Coach Frank Martin had his team ready for the second toughest conference, according to the RPI, after playing the No. 30 most challenging non-conerence schedule. Thanks to the Big 12′s strength, Kansas State has now played the second toughest schedule in the country.

Villanova presents a tougher challenge to Kansas State’s bid for a No. 1 seed. Wright’s Wildcats have a better marquis win at this point — at home against Georgetown — thanks to Texas’ recent slump. If the Longhorns finish strong and the Hoyas fade in Big East play, that could change by Selection Sunday. But right now, Villanova’s win against the Hoyas is great, and the Wildcats will go for the regular-season sweep in Washington, D.C., today.

Besides the win against Georgetown, Villanova also can tout its wins against Dayton, Mississippi, Maryland and Louisville, all of which are in the RPI top 50. Perhaps equally important, the Wildcats have four wins against Marquette, Notre Dame and Seton Hall, all of whom are hovering right outside the top 50. Right now, it’s hard to imagine the Wildcats from Kansas State outdueling the Wildcats from Villanova for a No. 1 seed.

However, in the next few weeks, Kansas State could have an opportunity to displace Villanova. Villanova has benefited from a comparatively easy start to its Big East schedule. Overall, Villanova has the No. 71 ranked schedule, but the team ranks only No. 174 for its non-conference schedule. The overall strength of schedule will increase significantly when the Wildcats play at Georgetown, West Virginia (home and away), vs. Connecticut, at Pittsburgh, at Syracuse and at Cincinnati by the end of the season. If Villanova drops only one or two of those games, the Wildcats will sew up a No. 1 seed. However, if the team struggles and drops four or five of those games, the door will be open for a team like Kansas State to move to one of the top lines in the NCAA Tournament.

In comparison to Villanova, Kansas State’s final few weeks present only one major challenge: a rematch at Kansas. The Jayhawks escaped Manhattan with an 81-79 overtime win, and Martin will have his Wildcats ready to exact revenge in Phog Allen Fieldhouse. Besides that road trip, Kansas State’s only games away from Manhattan are at Iowa State, Oklahoma and Texas Tech — all of which are winnable. If the Wildcats finish strong and pick up a road win at Kansas, they can enter the Big 12 Conference Tournament feeling confident that they are on pace for a No. 1 seed.

Bracket Breakdown: ACC’s Offensive Woes Will Limit Tourney Success

Yes, North Carolina represented the ACC well last season by winning the national championship. But the other six ACC teams in the NCAA Tournament bowed out in ugly performances. Four of them failed to put up 60 points in their final game, and four teams lost by at least 15 points. Offensive inconsistency was the downfall of ACC teams last season, and the top teams’ performance this season indicates that history might repeat in March.

As of Feb. 2, the ACC has six teams in the RPI top 50: Duke, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Florida State, Clemson and Maryland. All of those teams except Georgia Tech played and lost in last season’s NCAA Tournament. So each team entered this season with hopes of another trip to the Big Dance, but each knew it needed to improve to last longer in the tournament.

Of those six teams, only Duke can feel confident that it is on pace to make a lasting impact in the NCAA Tournament. The Blue Devils are one of only four teams that rank in the top 20 for offensive and defensive efficiency, as measured by Ken Pomeroy. In the past six NCAA Tournaments, 17 of 24 Final Four participants have met that profile. In addition, Duke is one of the best teams in the country in defending the perimeter, which makes the Blue Devils less susceptible to the machinations of a hot-shooting dynamo. Plus Duke avoids giving teams extra possessions, committing only 12.0 turnovers per game. More importantly, the Blue Devils have a pair of sound ball-handlers in Nolan Smith and Jon Scheyer, who commit fewer than two turnovers per game.

Based on efficiency numbers, Maryland would appear to be poised to make some noise in the NCAA Tournament. The Terrapins rank No. 20 for offense and No. 21 for defense. However, Maryland also has some concerning statistics to overcome. Despite having a guard-oriented lineup, the Terrapins are porous on the perimeter. Opponents get more than 30 percent of their scoring from behind the arc. And when they miss, they grab offensive rebounds nearly 36 percent of the time. When Memphis stomped Maryland in the NCAA Tournament last season, the Tigers hit 10 three-pointers and out-rebounded the Terrapins 33-23.

Maryland wasn’t the only ACC victim sniped down by long-distance sharpshooters in the last NCAA Tournament. Florida State lost in overtime largely because Wisconsin hit nine three-pointers. The Seminoles also committed 14 turnovers to the Badgers’ nine. Superstar point guard Toney Douglas single-handedly accounted for that differential by committing five turnovers. This season, the Seminoles are one of the worst teams in Division I in protecting the ball, averaging about 17 turnovers per game. Florida State tries to overcome that sloppiness with the No. 1 defense, based on efficiency. Although the Seminoles make it hard to score, they are vulnerable on the perimeter, allowing opponents to make about seven three-pointers per game. Opponents get 35.2 percent of their points from three-point territory. Frequent turnovers, a sluggish offense — ranked No. 105 in efficiency — and lackluster three-point defense are key ingredients in the recipe for a first-round NCAA Tournament upset.

Like its ACC brethren, Wake Forest gave up some untimely three-pointers in its major first-round upset to Cleveland State in last year’s NCAA Tournament. But the Demon Deacons lost mostly because they failed to play under control, committing 18 turnovers and forcing only six. All-ACC guard Jeff Teague ushered in the disaster with seven turnovers. Although the Demon Deacons’ offense has regressed this season — from No. 43 in efficiency last season to No. 88 this season — Wake Forest has tightened its three-point defense, with opponents managing only 23.7 percent of their points from behind the arc. Wake Forest’s tournament hopes this season will depend largely on the Demon Deacons’ ability to stop three-point shooters. And it also will rely on point guard Ish Smith controlling the tempo and limiting turnovers.

Clemson looks like a mirror image of Wake Forest, and the two won’t meet until the final game of the regular season March 7. The Tigers lost to Michigan in the first round of last year’s NCAA Tournament by giving up 10 three-pointers and struggling on offense. Unlike Wake Forest, which gave away the ball too often, the Tigers simply couldn’t hit shots. For a team ranked No. 16 in offensive efficiency, Clemson looked inept against Michigan and coach John Beilein’s 1-3-1 zone defense. The Tigers have work to do on offense this season and are ranked only No. 92 in efficiency. But they should be better prepared to handle a perimeter-oriented team because opponents get only 22.2 percent of their points from behind the arc, the 39th best rate in Division I. The Tigers play suffocating defense that forces turnovers, so Clemson figures to match up well against many teams defensively. The question the Tigers must answer is whether they can muster enough offense to get past one or two tournament opponents.

Of the ACC’s best teams based on RPI, Georgia Tech figures to be the lone newcomer to the NCAA Tournament. But Georgia Tech might face a familiar fate. The Yellow Jackets have a solid defense, ranked No. 8 in efficiency, but a mediocre offense, ranked No. 64. In addition, they give up a significant percentage of opponents’ points (29.5 percent) from behind the arc. And they turn the ball over more than 16 times per game. Point guard Iman Shumpert is guilty of playing carelessly too often, averaging 3.3 turnovers per game. For a young team with no NCAA Tournament experience, the Yellow Jackets could run into trouble in the first round if they play a fundamentally strong team that has been to the NCAA Tournament one or two consecutive years — think Cornell or Siena.

By the end of the season, the ACC could look back at the 2010 NCAA Tournament with a sense of deja vu. Duke could easily make a run to the Final Four, with only one or two other ACC teams making it past the first weekend of play and a couple of highly seeded teams going down in first-round upsets. Outside Duke and Maryland, all of the ACC’s powerhouses need to find a way to avoid offensive slumps — the kind of lackluster performances that can lead to March Madness melancholy.

Utah: Slap Earns Henderson One-Game Suspension

After BYU’s Jackson Emery exchanged words with Utah guard Marshall Henderson, the Utes’ freshman whacked Emery in the face with a backhand, earning an ejection and one-game suspension, according to an Associated Press report.

BYU had the game wrapped up, and Emery followed Henderson along the baseline to speak his mind after a play with 34 seconds to go. Henderson, who averages 11.5 points and 2.3 rebounds per game, did not appreciate the disrespectful actions and slapped Emery with a backhand. Officials immediately tossed Henderson. NCAA rules dictate that players ejected for fighting receive a one-game suspension.

Utah will face Colorado State without one of the team’s best players. The Utes are 3-4 in Mountain West action but have lost two in a row on the road to Wyoming and BYU.

Florida State: DeMercy Searches for More Playing Time

Florida State junior forward Jordan DeMercy will leave the Seminoles in search of a team that will offer more playing time, according to an Associated Press report.

DeMercy averages 3.7 points and 2.1 rebounds per game this season, but his playing time has dropped in the new year. He has not played more than 14 minutes in any game since the team’s blowout victory against Alabama A&M. He is averaging 14.2 minutes per game for the season, a 28 percent drop compared to last season’s 19.7 minutes per game.

In a university statement, coach Leonard Hamilton said DeMercy is leaving for personal reasons. He added that DeMercy will try to find opportunities with another team.

Colorado: Buffs Dodge a Bullet

Colorado freshman Alec Burks could return to the court as early as this week after missing most of the team’s 64-63 loss to Iowa State Saturday following an injury, according to the Associated Press.

Burks sprained his left knee, and an MRI did not reveal significant damage. Colorado will host Kansas Wednesday night and could use the services of Burks, who averaged 17.2 points per game and is one of the Big 12′s best freshmen.

Minnesota: White Departs for Good

Minnesota freshman Royce White announced that he will withdraw from the university.

A highly regarded recruit, White has not played a minute for the Golden Gophers after a run-in with the law in the fall. He was under investigation for theft of a laptop from a campus dorm room. After that incident, he announced in a YouTube video that he quit the team — without informing anyone in the athletics department first. Upon further consideration, he decided to remain with the team, albeit suspended.

White recently returned to practice before making his announcement to withdraw.

Bracket Breakdown: Pac-10′s Struggles Will Benefit Mountain West, Atlantic 10

With the Pac-10 experiencing more upheaval than the conference has had in 20 years, it’s increasingly likely that the Pac-10 won’t field more than one team in the NCAA Tournament if California wins the conference’s automatic bid.

Since 1989, the Pac-10 has had no fewer than three bids in the NCAA Tournament, and that only happened twice. In the past three tournaments, the Pac-10 has placed six teams in the field. With the sudden decline of traditional powerhouses such as Arizona and UCLA, a couple other conferences stand to benefit, specifically the Atlantic 10 and Mountain West.

Entering the final weekend of January, only one Pac-10 team, California, has an RPI better than 50. And Cal’s solid computer profile — an RPI of 18 — largely depends on the second toughest schedule in the country. But the Golden Bears have fared poorly against those tough teams, losing all four games against top 50 opponents. Only half the conference has any wins against teams in the RPI top 50.

Besides California, every other Pac-10 team has significant hurdles to overcome. The second-place team, Arizona, already has nine losses and is only two games better than .500. The Wildcats probably need to win eight or nine of their final 10 conference games to have a legitimate shot at the NCAA Tournament. Part of the problem is that with so many struggling teams, it’s hard for a team like Arizona to notch any résumé-building victories.

Meanwhile, the Mountain West has four teams in contention for at-large bids. BYU is 20-2 and has an RPI of 22.  The second-place team, New Mexico, is 19-3 and has a higher RPI, at 11. UNLV and San Diego State also are in the top 50 and figure to remain in the at-large discussion until Selection Sunday. In existence since 1999, the conference has never fielded four teams in the NCAA Tournament.

On the East Coast — and Midwest and Southeast — the Atlantic 10 Conference, which has 14 teams, looks ever stronger. The conference’s pre-season favorite, Dayton, sits at seventh place entering the final weekend of January. The Flyers match the Pac-10′s best, California, with a 14-6 record, but Dayton has two wins against teams in the RPI top 50. The team’s non-conference strength of schedule is excellent at No. 20, and the best win is against surging Georgia Tech. No offense to the Ohio Valley Conference’s premier program, but California’s best win is against Murray State on opening day. If you had to pick right now, whom do you want in the NCAA Tournament — California or Dayton?

Besides the Flyers, Temple, Xavier, Charlotte and Rhode Island all have compelling arguments for automatic bids. Temple has the best victory of any team in the Atlantic 10, Mountain West or Pac-10 with an upset of Villanova — the Wildcats’ only loss entering the last weekend of January.

So while the Pac-10 could flirt with one-bid conference status, several strong teams in the Atlantic 10 and Mountain West are poised to seize an opportunity to grab more automatic bids for two non-power conferences. Based on the Pac-10′s performance this season, it’s hard to consider it a power conference on par with the ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten and SEC.

UNC-Wilmington: Seahawks Boot Moss From Coaching Gig

Coach Benny Moss will not lead UNC-Wilmington to the conclusion of this season after the university decided to reassign him within the athletics department, according to a school press release.

The Seahawks are 7-14 this season, on pace to record their third losing season in four years with Moss at the helm. In his stead, assistant coach Brooks Lee will be interim head coach.

Moss arrived in Wilmington after working as an assistant at Charlotte for six seasons. This position was his first Division I head coaching job. He finishes it with a 41-74 record.

Lee will step into his first head coaching gig after working as an assistant with the Seahawks, Wofford, East Carolina and UNC-Greensboro.

Stanford: Cardinal QB Moves to the Hardwood

Stanford quarterback Tavita Pritchard has turned in his shoulder pads and helmet for a pair of sneakers and a jersey that wouldn’t make a referee feel protected on the football field.

After completing his eligibility as Stanford’s quarterback, Pritchard will continue his career as a Cardinal with the basketball team, giving coach Johnny Dawkins some much-needed depth, according to the Associated Press. Only six players average more than 14 minutes per game this season for the 10-9 Cardinal. Despite the mediocre record, Stanford is 4-3 in Pac-10 play, winning all four of their home games.

Pritchard will sit on the bench for the first time during the team’s game against Arizona. He just started practicing with the team, so don’t expect him in a game until next week.

On the gridiron, Pritchard had 2,865 yards and 15 touchdowns during his career..

South Carolina: Gamecocks Embrace $25K Win

South Carolina earned a $25,000 fine after fans rushed the court following the team’s 68-62 win against No. 1 Kentucky, according to an Associated Press report.

Fans celebrated with the team immediately after the final buzzer sounded, which violates an SEC policy intended to prevent mayhem that could endanger fans, coaches, referees or players. The rule was a product of the madness in Detroit when a fan threw a beer onto Ron Artest, then of the Indiana Pacers, and a players vs. fans brawl erupted.

On Tuesday, Kentucky coach John Calipari immediately left the floor instead of shaking hands the South Carolina team. The rule stands in place to especially protect members of the opposing team, who must navigate a path through unruly celebrating fans to the locker room. They’re not happy about losing; hundreds of fans are delirious about winning. It’s a volatile mix.

“This policy is designed to create a safe environment for everyone who participates and attends our athletic contests,” SEC commissioner Mike Slive said in a statement. “The security and protection of our student athletes, coaches, officials and fans is our primary concern.”

Despite the rule, it’s hard to find an appropriate release for thousands of emotional fans. Devan Downey, who led South Carolina to the victory with 30 points, encouraged fans to join the team on the court.

Downey pointed to the crowd, yelling “I told you so” after the win. When asked about a potential SEC fine Tuesday night, he smiled and said, “I’m pretty sure the university’s got some money somewhere to pay the fine.”

“I’m not saying it’s right, wrong or whatever, but when you beat a No. 1 team in the country, you want to remember that moment in a special way,” he said. “Yeah, I told them to come on the court.”