During the NCAA Tournament , the Rams have improved their offensive and defensive efficiency by more than twice as much as any team did in last season’s tournament. The change is so dramatic that you’d think that we’re dealing with an invasion of the body snatchers. Would whoever kidnapped the average three point-shooting, defensively suspect Rams please return them to Earth?

It’s that remarkable.

Entering the CAA tournament, VCU allowed its previous 11 opponents to score at least 1.00 points per possession, and the Rams had only a 6-5 record during that span. In the conference tournament, the Rams showed some signs of life on defense, holding Drexel to 0.894 points per possession. The Rams stomped George Mason 79-63 in the quarterfinals, as the Patriots barely cracked the 1.0 mark at 1.004 points per possession. However, Old Dominion brought VCU back to reality as the Monarchs slowly grinded past the Rams’ defense with 1.126 points per possession.

We’re not going to even touch the issue about whether VCU’s body of work was worthy of an at-large bid. That discussion is dead and gone. Instead, the team’s outstanding play deserves all the press.

As VCU prepared for a First Four game against USC, the Rams ranked No. 84 in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings, with an offense averaging 1.096 points per possession and a defense allowing 1.008 points per possession. That’s not terribly impressive. The match up against the Trojans seemed fairly even, and a second-round upset against a struggling Georgetown team that didn’t know what it would get out of Chris Wright wasn’t outside the realm of possibility. But an extended run through the likes of Purdue and Kansas definitely didn’t seem plausible.

But that’s before VCU’s defense but everyone on lockdown.

In the tournament, the Rams have held every opponent except Purdue to less than 1.0 points per possession. In fact, USC, Georgetown and Kansas barely came within 0.1 points of that mark. The Boilermakers made it to 1.157 points per possession, which was nothing compared to VCU’s deadly 1.431 points per possession on offense.

The catalyst for VCU’s defensive resurgence is the team’s pressure defense. Coach Shaka Smart has his guys getting in the grill of every opposing guard. Kansas’ backcourt players looked flustered as they forced ill-advised entry passes and failed to organize the Jayhawks’ offense. VCU also thrived on team efforts in rebounding, which was crucial against the likes of USC, Georgetown and Purdue. The Rams survived Florida State and Kansas despite giving up a ton of size in the post and a bunch of offensive rebounds.

Offensively, VCU’s shooters just caught fire. Jamie Skeen and Brandon Rozzell helped VCU shoot 43.8 percent from three-point range, a massive improvement from the 36.2 percent that the team shot heading into the tournament. It almost defies reason that multiple players could improve that much almost overnight. Skeen and Rozzell are solid shooters, as each entered the NCAA Tournament shooting around 38 percent from beyond the arc. However, they shot at least 50 percent in five games so far. If the shots keep falling, the Rams will be extraordinarily tough to beat.

In sum, VCU has improved from 1.096 points per possession on offense to start the tournament to 1.133 points per possession now. Defensively, the Rams trimmed their points per possession allowed from 1.008 to 0.977. Collectively, that’s a 6.8 points per possession improvement in five games, and the Rams are up from No. 84 to No. 49 in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings. In comparison, Cornell improved more than any other team in the 2010 NCAA Tournament, when the Big Red reached the Sweet 16 as a No. 12 seed. The team improved by a total of 3.3 points per possession. VCU has more than doubled that, and the Rams needed to make that happen to have a shot against strong teams like Purdue and Kansas.

Regardless of what happens today against Butler, Smart’s crew has delivered one of the most memorable runs in NCAA Tournament history. If the Rams keep up their pace of improvement at both ends of the court, this team could easily be cutting down the nets as the national champion Monday night.

For just the fifth time since UCLA completed its run of dominance in the 1970s, we will have a mid-major program playing for the national championship. And based on the torrid play of VCU and Butler, there’s no reason to think the Rams or Bulldogs can’t knock off Connecticut or Kentucky to claim the first title for a non-power conference team since UNLV demolished Duke in 1990.

For a quick history lesson, here’s a rundown of championship game participants from conferences not named the ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-10 or SEC since 1975.

• 1977: Marquette, Independent. Beat North Carolina.
• 1979: Indiana State, Missouri Valley Conference. Lost to Michigan State.
• 1980: Louisville, Metro Conference. Beat UCLA.
• 1983: Houston, Southwest Conference. Lost to North Carolina State.
• 1984: Houston, Southwest Conference. Lost to Georgetown.
• 1986: Louisville, Metro Conference. Beat Duke.
• 1990: UNLV, Big West Conference. Beat Duke.
• 1998: Utah, Western Athletic Conference. Lost to Kentucky.
• 2008: Memphis, Conference USA. Lost to Kansas.
• 2010: Butler, Horizon League. Lost to Duke.
• 2011: ???

Yes, that’s more than five teams. However, some of those teams were part of now-defunct conferences that ran with the big boys during their heyday. Louisville, which no one would confuse with a mid-major program, represented the Metro Conference in 1980 and 1986. That conference evolved into Conference USA, and the Cardinals upgraded to the Big East. Fellow Big East member Marquette played as an independent when coach Al McGuire guided the Warriors, as they were known for 40 years until 1994, to the 1977 championship.

Houston would likely qualify as a mid-major program today, but in the 1980s, the Cougars played alongside Texas, Arkansas and the rest of the Southwest Conference, one of basketball’s premier conferences at the time. The Cougars are now part of Conference USA, which contains some programs that feel like mid-majors and others that don’t. The latter category includes Memphis circa 2008, when John Calipari led the Tigers to a thrilling overtime loss against Kansas. Any team coached by Calipari and receiving the top recruits in the country on an annual basis just isn’t a mid-major.

That leaves us with Indiana State (1979), UNLV (1990), Utah (1998) and Butler (2010) as the four true mid-majors that have advanced to the national championship game. The list of outstanding players from those teams is impressive: Larry Bird, Larry Johnson, Greg Anthony, Stacey Augmon, Andre Miller, Michael Doleac and Gordon Hayward. Those teams’ ability to attract NBA-caliber talent helped give them a shot at the title. But only Jerry Tarkanian’s Runnin’ Rebels completed the task, with a dominant win against Duke in 1990 that drew the wrath of coaches across the country because they felt Tarkanian built a team of trouble-makers and cast-offs who percolated through the junior college circuit. But you can’t argue with the wins and the national championship banner in Vegas.

With such a small history of mid-majors in the championship game, this weekend must be considered historic. We have not one but two mid-major programs in the Final Four, and one of them is guaranteed to have the right to play for a national championship.

Although we’ve already seen a bunch of thrilling upsets, the most indelible one would be Monday night. Kentucky might be a No. 4 seed and Connecticut a No. 3 seed, but those two teams represent historically great, power conference programs. Butler or VCU would stand alongside UNLV as one of only two mid-majors in the past 40-plus years to shake off all comers and wrest the championship from the grips of the major conferences.

I don’t think many people saw that coming. But those two conferences account for a quarter of the Sweet 16 teams and have more teams advancing to the second weekend than the Big East and Big 12 combined. That’s even more impressive when you consider the latter two conferences fielded 16 teams to the seven from the ACC and CAA. In addition, 12 of the Big East/Big 12 teams had seeds of No. 6 or better, while only two of seven ACC/CAA teams could say that.

And when we look at expected performance by seed, as explained by Peter Tiernan in a 2008 ESPN.com article, the numbers are even more revealing. The CAA is leading the pack, with 1.76 more wins than expected at this point in the tournament, mostly because of VCU’s run to the Sweet 16 after starting the tournament in the First Four. The ACC is No. 2 with 1.39 more wins than expected. That comes on the strength of Florida State’s Sweet 16 appearance and Clemson’s win against UAB in the First Four. As a No. 1 seed and No. 2 seed, respectively, Duke and North Carolina were supposed to reach the Sweet 16, so they didn’t contribute to the conference’s positive wins against expected performance.

However, that doesn’t diminish the success of the Tar Heels and Blue Devils because the Big East teams have proven that expectations mean nothing in the tournament.

Based on seed performance expectations, the nine Big East teams seeded No. 6 or better should have won 14.05 games so far. Those teams won seven games, with Marquette delivering two more wins as a No. 11 seed. That’s close to an epic fail for a conference that set an NCAA Tournament record with 11 teams representing the conference — and they would have put that number in the field without expansion to 68 teams.

The biggest Big East underperformer is clearly Louisville, which was supposed to win 1.52 games as a No. 4 seed. Instead, the Cardinals were taken down by Morehead State. Pittsburgh and Notre Dame weren’t much better. As mentioned above with Duke and North Carolina, No. 1 and 2 seeds are supposed to reach the Sweet 16. Those two Big East squads lost in the third round — their second game. That give the Panthers and Irish a -1 expected win total each for the tournament. And it gets worse for the Big East, with Syracuse, St. John’s and Georgetown bowing out earlier than expected.

Meanwhile, the Big 12 is off to a lackluster start. Yes, the conference has a legitimate national title contender in Kansas. But the rest of the conference flamed out by the end of the third round. Kansas State and Texas lost tough games to Wisconsin and Arizona, respectively, and losing a 4/5 seed match up — as both the Wildcats and Longhorns did — is not embarrassing. The Big 12 hasn’t had any awful losses, but they just haven’t done anything special this tournament — at least, not yet. The Jayhawks could change that with a run to the national championship.

Here’s a look at the multi-bid conferences and how they rank based on seed performance after the first weekend of action.

1.

(4) Kentucky 71 (5) West Virginia 63
In a rematch of last season’s regional final between the Wildcats and Mountaineers, can Kentucky get revenge by suffocating West Virginia’s inconsistent offense with a defense that allows teams to shoot only 42.0 percent from inside the arc?

ANSWER: Yes, the Wildcats got their revenge by stepping up the defensive intensity in the second half. Kentucky held the Mountaineers to 22 second-half points and 41.5 percent shooting for the game. Brandon Knight bounced back from a poor shooting game against Princeton to break through for 30 points on 9-of-20 shooting.

2.

(2) Florida 73 (7) UCLA 65
Can the Bruins’ interior defense, anchored by the massive Joshua Smith, keep Florida out of the post? The Gators are No. 8 in the country in offensive rebound percentage and shoot 51.4 percent inside the arc.

ANSWER: Sorta. The Bruins did a good job against Vernon Macklin and Alex Tyus, holding the Gators’ bigs to a combined 18 points. However, mighty mouse point guard Erving Walker shredded the Bruins’ defense, especially late in the game, and finished with 21 points and got to the free throw line 10 times. Florida collected seven offensive rebounds, so the Bruins can’t be too upset about that effort.

3.

(12) Richmond 65 (13) Morehead State 48
Richmond is a bad rebounding team. Morehead State is bad at defending the long ball. Which team will impose its game on the other?

ANSWER: Neither team established itself in its typical way, but Richmond controlled the game. Most importantly, the Spiders allowed Morehead State to out-rebound them by only two, 32-30. Richmond made only four three-pointers in the game. However, the threat of the long ball stretched Morehead State’s defense, and the Spiders shot 56.4 percent from inside the arc.

4.

(2) San Diego State 71 (7) Temple 64 2OT
These teams are nearly mirror images of each other, but the Aztecs are a better version with more talent. Can Temple find a boost on offense from someone to overcome San Diego State’s advantages in talent, size and experience?

ANSWER: No, and especially not in overtime. Both teams played ugly down the stretch, and the Owls got 57 of their 64 points from only four players. In both overtimes, the Owls played passive on offense, and no one seemed to want to attack the basket or take a clutch shot. As a result, San Diego State slipped by in a game that the Aztecs could have easily lost.

5.

(8) Butler 71 (1) Pittsburgh 70
Can Butler’s excellent post players, Matt Howard and Andrew Smith, stay out of foul trouble and play effectively against Gary McGhee and Pittsburgh’s prolific rebounders, who are No. 2 in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage?

ANSWER: Yes, the two combined for only four fouls and limited the Panthers to six offensive rebounds. But forget about that.

This game had one of the most memorable endings in a long time. Andrew Smith hit a would-be game winner with 2.4 seconds to go, giving Butler a 69-68 lead. Pitt fired an inbounds pass along the sideline, which Gilbert Brown let bounce once before picking it up to fire a prayer. But Shelvin Mack fouled him.

Brown proceeded to drain the first free throw to tie the game at 70. On the second shot, he just missed and the ball spun out to the left. Matt Howard collected the rebound with Nasir Robinson hanging on his arm — foul. At the other end with 0.8 seconds remaining, Howard made the first to seal the 71-70 win. He missed the second, and time expired.

6.

(3) BYU 89 (11) Gonzaga 67
Besides Jimmer Fredette, who else will step up for BYU to produce points against Gonzaga, which is vulnerable against shooters because the Zags allow opponents to shoot 36.4 percent from three-point range?

ANSWER: Jackson Emery and Noah Hartsock. Jimmer Fredette’s running mates poured six three-pointers, in addition to Jimmer’s seven from long range. In sum, BYU scored 42 of its 89 points from behind the arc as the Cougars torched that suspect Gonzaga perimeter defense.

7.

(4) Wisconsin 70 (5) Kansas State 65
Will Wisconsin’s massive free throw advantage — 82.3 percent at the line compared to Kansas State’s 65.9 percent — provide the difference in a tight match up of No. 4 and 5 seeds?

ANSWER: Absolutely. Jacob Pullen was magnificent for Kansas State, with 38 points. But when fouled on a three-pointer with Kansas State trailing by three in the final minute, Pullen made only two of the attempts, which sealed the Wildcats’ fate. As a a team, Kansas State made 15-of-22 free throw attempts, or 68.2 percent, compared to Wisconsin’s 19-of-23, or 82.6 percent.

8.

(3) Connecticut 69 (6) Cincinnati 58
Can Connecticut complete a two-game season sweep against the Bearcats by locking down Cincinnati’s Yancy Gates, Rashad Bishop and Ibrahima Thomas in the post?

ANSWER: The Huskies advanced, but they barely slowed down Cincinnati’s big men. Those three combined to shoot 15-of-28 and had 39 points. But Connecticut held the rest of the Bearcats to 25.9 percent shooting, and Kemba Walker battled through physical play that left him with a sore wrist and hip to finish with 33 points.

9.

(2) North Carolina 86 (7) Washington 83
Will Washington’s quick guards, especially Isaiah Thomas and Venoy Overton, force Kendall Marshall to make mistakes and disrupt an occasionally spotty Tar Heel offense?

ANSWER: Not often enough. Marshall had four of North Carolina’s nine turnovers, but he also had 14 assists, a Tar Heel record in an NCAA Tournament game. With North Carolina’s big men, especially Tyler Zeller, sprinting down the court in transition, Marshall delivered several long passes on the money for easy baskets. North Carolina’s offense had its way with Washington en route to an 86-83 win.

10.

(1) Duke 73 (8) Michigan 71
Can Michigan build on a terrific performance against Tennessee by stopping Duke’s three-point shooters and keeping Nolan Smith and Kyrie Irving from repeatedly driving through the lane for buckets?

ANSWER: Yes to the first part, no to the second. Duke took advantage of its size and quickness advantage by shooting 20-of-29 from inside the arc and getting to the line 25 times, covering up a weak 5-of-20 shooting performance from three-point range. Smith led the way with 24 points. But he missed the second of two free throws in the closing seconds, which gave Michigan an opportunity to tie the game. But Darius Morris’ running jumper in the lane with two seconds to go clanked off the back of the rim to preserve Duke’s win.

11.

(1) Ohio State 98 (8) George Mason 66
Will George Mason’s March magic come up empty against a team that can light up the scoreboard in many different ways?

ANSWER: The Colonials’ great season ended at the hands of the team with the highest ceiling of any in the NCAA Tournament. Ohio State blitzed George Mason 98-66 with 61 percent shooting from the field, including 16-of-26 from three-point range. David Lighty was phenomenal as the Buckeyes’ senior leader, delivering a nearly perfect game with 9-of-10 shooting and 25 points.

12.

(5) Arizona 70 (4) Texas 69
Texas’ size and defensive prowess could frustrate the Wildcats’ Derrick Williams. If he struggles, who else for Arizona will step up to score for the Wildcats against one of the best defenses in the country?

ANSWER: Solomon Hill. The Longhorns did stymie Williams for much of the game, and he finished shooting 4-of-15 from the field — an off day for one of the best players in the country. Hill delivered with 16 points on 7-of-12 shooting and helped keep the team in it until Williams got into the flow in the second half. Down the stretch, Williams took over by attacking the rim and boards, and he made the game-winning play on a driving layup and three-point play at the free throw line.

13.

(11) VCU 94 (3) Purdue 76
As one of the best teams in the country at protecting the ball, can Purdue continue to execute on offense against the Rams’ pressure defense, which forces turnovers on 22.8 percent of opponents’ possessions?

ANSWER: Yes, but the Boilermakers’ defense was so bad, a solid offensive performance went for naught. Purdue committed only seven turnovers and grabbed 12 offensive rebounds. With a solid shooting day, Purdue averaged about 1.12 points per possession. However, VCU torched Purdue’s usually stout defense with 57.8 percent shooting, including 67.4 percent inside the arc. VCU put up and Ohio State-esque 1.40 points per possession.

14.

(11) Marquette 66 (3) Syracuse 62
Can Marquette replicate a home win in January against the Orange, when the Golden Eagles attacked Syracuse’s zone and got to the line 33 times, providing he difference in a tight battle?

ANSWER: Yes, and the Golden Eagles used nearly an identical formula. Marquette attacked Syracuse’s zone and got to the line 23 times, where the Golden Eagles made 19 attempts. When they weren’t getting to the line, they were collecting 36.7 percent of their missed shots, led by Jimmy Butler’s four offensive rebounds. Butler was one of three Golden Eagles to reach double figures in scoring, and Darius Johnson-Odom led the way with 17 points, including a tie-breaking three-pointer in the final 30 seconds.

15.

(1) Kansas 73 (9) Illinois 59
If Kansas starts sluggish again against Illinois, can the Illini build and hold onto a lead with their excellent shooting?

ANSWER: That didn’t happen, and it wasn’t a concern for the Jayhawks. Illinois hung around until midway through the second half, when the Morris twins buried the Illini for good. Marcus and Markieff combined to score 41 points and grabbed 25 rebounds, just five fewer than Illinois collected as a team.

16.

(10) Florida State 71 (2) Notre Dame 57
Will Notre Dame’s great offense, ranked No. 3 in points per possession, be able to score enough to get past Florida State’s great defense, ranked No. 1 in points per possession?

ANSWER: Not even close. Florida State’s superior size and aggressive defense frustrated the Fighting Irish, who shot only 30.6 percent from the field and made only 7-of-30 three-point attempts. Meanwhile, the Seminoles took advantage of Notre Dame’s questionable defense by shooting 47.4 percent from three-point range, led Michael Snaer’s three three-pointers.

1.

(5) West Virginia 84 (12) Clemson 76
How will the Mountaineers handle Clemson’s pressure defense, which forces turnovers on 23.2 percent of defensive possessions?

ANSWER: After an ugly start, West Virginia recovered to beat Clemson 84-76 in the first game of the day. The Mountaineers succeeded in limiting turnovers to about 16 percent of their possessions, better than their season average 19.0 percent and even more impressive against the Tigers.

2.

(8) Butler 60 (9) Old Dominion 58
Can last year’s national runner-up get past Old Dominion and its stingy zone?

ANSWER: Yes, thanks to Matt Howard’s buzzer-beating tap back off a wild driving layup by Shawn Vanzant. The most impressive part of the Bulldogs’ 60-58 win was Butler’s +1 rebounding advantage against a team that ranked first in offensive rebounding percentage and No. 16 in defensive rebounding percentage.

3.

(13) Morehead State 62 (4) Louisville 61
Can the Cardinals’ Terrence Jennings keep Morehead State’s Kenneth Faried, the top rebounder in the nation, off the glass for Louisville, which isn’t a particularly great rebounding team?

ANSWER: No. Faried dominated with 17 rebounds, including six at the offensive end, which helped the Eagles out-rebound the Cardinals 36-27 and set up Demonte Harper’s clutch game-winning three-pointer with four seconds remaining.

4.

(7) Temple 66 (10) Penn State 64
In a game of two slow-paced offenses, will either team crack 50 points, and will anyone watch it?

ANSWER: Yes, and absolutely yes. Both teams cracked the 50-point plateau midway through the second half en route to finishing with 46.2 percent shooting for Temple and 48.1 percent for Penn State. Talor Battle drained a 25-footer to tie the game with 14 seconds left, and then Juan Fernandez leaned around a defender to hit the game-winning jumper with 0.4 seconds to go.

5.

(4) Kentucky 59 (13) Princeton 57
Will John Calipari’s Wildcats beat a veteran-laden Ivy League squad for the second consecutive tournament after taking out Cornell last season?

ANSWER: Barely. Kentucky freshman phenom Brandon Knight shows the poise of a veteran by taking his man off a switch at the top of the key to drive for the winning layup with two seconds to go. Knight had missed all seven of his previous shots, scoring his only points right before the buzzer.

6.

(1) Pittsburgh 74 (16) UNC-Asheville 51
Can UNC-Asheville, a poor rebounding team, do anything to keep Pittsburgh from dominating the boards, even though the Panthers grab 42.7 percent of their misses on offense?

ANSWER: No, the Bulldogs couldn’t. In a 23-point loss in which UNC-Asheville stayed close until the final 12 minutes, Pittsburgh bullied the Bulldogs on the glass, rebounding 55.9 percent of the team’s missed shots and finishing with a 44-24 edge in rebounds.

7.

(12) Richmond 69 (5) Vanderbilt 66
In a game featuring two teams heavily dependent on the long ball, which team will be hotter from three-point range?

ANSWER: Richmond. The Spiders defended the long-range shot well and hit 12 three-pointers on offense, which fueled the team’s 69-66 upset of Vanderbilt. For the season, nearly 40 percent of the Commodores’ shots and about 30 percent of their points came from long range. But against Richmond, only 27.7 percent of Vanderbilt’s shots came from behind the arc, and three-pointers accounted for only 27.3 percent of the team’s points.

8.

(2) San Diego State 68 (15) Northern Colorado 50
Can the Bears, the No. 6 free throw shooting team in the country, get to the line 24 times against San Diego State, which is among the top 25 teams in the country at avoiding fouls?

ANSWER: Not even close. Northern Colorado got to the line only eight times in the 68-50 loss to San Diego State, and the Bears made only four of those attempts. The team shot poorly from everywhere, dooming its upset bid.

9.

(2) Florida 79 (15) UC-Santa Barbara 51
Playing in Tampa in front a heavily partisan Gator crowd, how will UC-Santa Barbara, not an excellent offensive team, respond if Florida jumps out to a quick double-digit lead?

ANSWER: Not well, despite lack of huge Gator cheering section. Florida sprinted out to an early lead, extended it to 24 by halftime and coasted to a 28-point victory. However, although the Gators are only two hours from home, there wasn’t a particularly vocal crowd in the stands. Maybe they’re waiting for Saturday vs. Michigan State or UCLA?

10.

(3) BYU 74 (14) Wofford 66
Will Wofford, which has five seniors and three juniors who played in the tournament last season, be able to take advantage of BYU’s lack of interior muscle without Brandon Davies?

ANSWER: Yes, but it didn’t make a big enough difference. Wofford forward Noah Dahlman put up 22 points on 6-of-10 shooting and got to the line 15 times. But Jimmer Fredette had 32 points and eight assists for the Cougars, who pulled away from the Terriers down the stretch for a 74-66 win.

11.

(3) Connecticut 81 (14) Bucknell 52
Will the Huskies’ five games in five days run to the Big East championship negatively affect Connecticut against a Bucknell squad that plays solid defense, particularly by holding opponents to a poor shooting percentage?

ANSWER: Um, no. Connecticut put up a great 1.25 points per possession in an 81-52 beatdown of Bucknell. The Huskies shot 48.5 percent from the field against that Bucknell defense, too. It’s on to the next for the Huskies.

12.

(4) Wisconsin 72 (13) Belmont 58
Can the Bruins’ excellent long-range shooting get Belmont past Wisconsin, which almost never commits turnovers and can go toe to toe with the best sharpshooters in the country?

ANSWER: No upset for the Bruins. Belmont made six three-pointers, which wasn’t enough compared to Wisconsin’s 12 deep-range shots. Although the Badgers were uncharacteristically sloppy and committed 12 turnovers — 21 percent of their possessions ended in a turnover — the Bruins just couldn’t take advantage on offense.

13.

(7) UCLA 78 (10) Michigan State 76
Will coach Tom Izzo get the Spartans rolling in March as he has done with several other teams, including last year’s Final Four squad?

ANSWER: Almost, but not quite. The Spartans fell behind by 20 points to UCLA with an awful first half. And then Izzo’s team started a furious rally that pulled Michigan State within one point of tying the game. But the Spartans couldn’t get over the hump, and the Bruins held on for a 78-76 win.

14.

(11) Gonzaga 86 (6) St. John’s 71
How will St. John’s respond to the loss of D.J. Kennedy to an ACL injury against a Gonzaga team that nearly matches the Red Storm’s offensive and defensive efficiency stats?

ANSWER: Emotionally, well; on the court, not well. St. John’s fans had T-shirts that said “Do it for D.J.” Unfortunately, that energy didn’t translate to the game, as Gonzaga had its way with the Red Storm’s defense en route to an 86-71 win.

15.

(6) Cincinnati 78 (11) Missouri 63
Do the Tigers have enough toughness to compete with Cincinnati’s big men in the post, especially for rebounds and loose balls?

ANSWER: No. The Bearcats only won the rebounding battle 33-28, but they controlled the tempo for much of the game and came up with most of the 50/50 loose balls. Occasional lapses in concentration allowed Missouri to rally a couple of times, but Cincinnati dropped the hammer by punishing Missouri in the post with Yancy Gates and the rest of the Bearcats’ big men.

16.

(5) Kansas State 73 (12) Utah State 68
Will Jacob Pullen spark a late-season surge for the Wildcats, starting against a Utah State team that actually has better offensive and defensive efficiency stats than Kansas State does?

ANSWER: So far, so good. Despite battling a bout of food poisoning, Pullen led the Wildcats with 22 points and five assists to stave off Utah State 73-68. The Wildcats were sloppy at times, but they got Utah State’s big men in foul trouble and prevented the Aggies from ever getting into an offensive rhythm.

17.

(4) Texas 85 (13) Oakland 81
Will Texas’ defense continue to play like the top unit in the country, and will it need to cover up a slumping offense?

ANSWER: Texas didn’t have a great defensive performance, but the Longhorns’ offense came alive against the Golden Grizzlies’ suspect defense. The Longhorns shot nearly 47 percent from the field, led by J’Covan Brown, who finished with 12 points, including 12-of-12 from the free throw line.

18.

(8) Michigan 75 (9) Tennessee 45
How will the rumors of coach Bruce Pearl’s job uncertainty affect the team’s play on the court?

ANSWER: In what will likely be Pearl’s last game as the Volunteers’ head coach, Michigan utterly embarrassed Tennessee in a 30-point rout. The Vols basically quit at halftime, scoring only 16 points in the second half and finishing with more turnovers (18) than made shots (15).

19.

(2) Notre Dame 69 (15) Akron 56
Can Akron slow down the Fighting Irish’s offensive juggernaut, fueled by Ben Hansbrough?

ANSWER: All things considered, Akron did a good job against Notre Dame’s offense. The Fighting Irish shot only 44.7 percent from the field, and Hansbrough finished with a team-high 15 points. However, the Zips couldn’t get anything going on offense, as Quincy Diggs was the only Akron player in double figures with 11 points.

20.

(8) George Mason 61 (9) Villanova 57
Can Villanova overcome a 5-10 final 15 games that featured a stagnant offense against a George Mason team that might be better than the 2006 Final Four version?

ANSWER: Painfully no. Despite leading by 10 points in the second half, Villanova choked as George Mason stormed back. Luke Hancock hit a clutch three-pointer in the final minute to give the Colonials a two-point lead, and George Mason shut down Villanova’s final two attempts to tie the game.

21.

(5) Arizona 77 (12) Memphis 75
What will Memphis do to slow down Arizona’s Derrick Williams, who can dominate a game from long range or close to the basket?

ANSWER: Not much. Nearly the entire Memphis team got in foul trouble trying to slow down Williams and the Wildcats, and he still put up 22 points to lead Arizona. In addition, Williams delivered the play of the game by swatting Memphis’ potentially game-tying jumper in the closing seconds.

22.

(1) Duke 87 (16) Hampton 45
Will Kyrie Irving play for Duke after coach Mike Krzyzewski indicated this week that Irving is practicing and could be available as early as this weekend?

ANSWER: Welcome back, Irving. The freshman phenom came off the bench and ended up leading the Blue Devils in points with 14 on 4-of-8 shooting. That’s promising for the Blue Devils moving forward throughout the tournament.

23.

(10) Florida State 57 (7) Texas A&M 50
Will Chris Singleton play for the Seminoles, and will he be near 100 percent, which would give one of the best defense’s in the country some additional oomph?

ANSWER: Yes, though not much and not nearly at 100 percent. But it didn’t matter much as the Seminoles smothered Texas A&M in a 57-50 victory. Singleton finished with five points, one steal and one block in limited minutes, but his teammates held the Aggies to 31.4 percent shooting.

24.

(1) Ohio State 75 (16) Texas-San Antonio 46
Can Texas-San Antonio stay within 30 points of the favorite to win the national championship?

ANSWER: Yes, but a 29-point loss isn’t much better. And that’s especially because the Roadrunners tried to bleed the clock for much of the game. The Buckeyes were just too good on offense and pulled away late in the first half, then cruised through the second half.

25.

(1) Kansas 72 (16) Boston University 53
Will the Terriers’ slow-paced game make Kansas uncomfortable for longer than a few minutes?

ANSWER: Somewhat amazingly, yes. The Terriers put up a valiant fight against Kansas, trailing by only four points at halftime. But in the second half, Kansas’ shooters caught fire, and the Jayhawks pulled away as the team shot nearly 51 percent from the field for the game.

26.

(2) North Carolina 102 (15) Long Island 87
One of the fastest-paced teams in the country, can Long Island beat the Tar Heels at their own game by lighting up the scoreboard against a North Carolina team that is susceptible to offensive slumps?

ANSWER: Not a chance. Both teams sprinted up and down the court for about 92 possessions apiece, a record for two Division I opponents this season, tweeted Ken Pomeroy. But in the end, North Carolina’s size dominated the overmatched Blackbirds, who gave up 60 combined points to Tyler Zeller and John Henson.

27.

(3) Purdue 65 (14) Saint Peter’s 43
How will the suspension of Kelsey Barlow affect Purdue’s defensive prowess, and does Saint Peter’s have enough firepower to exploit his absence?

ANSWER: No impact at all. The Boilermakers held Saint Peter’s to 29.8 percent shooting from the field and 0.66 points per possession. Only one Peacock, John Belin, reached double figures in scoring, and he barely got there with 12 points.

28.

(11) Marquette 66 (6) Xavier 55
In one of the most evenly paired match ups of the first round, which team will gain the upper hand and will it be able to hold on late?

ANSWER: Marquette grabbed the lead early and had a response for every Xavier run. The Golden Eagles shot 54.5 percent from the field and hit clutch shot after clutch shot to stymie the Musketeers’ second-half attempts to trim Marquette’s lead to two possessions. Darius Johnson-Odom was a frequent tormentor of Xavier, finishing with 19 points on 6-of-11 shooting.

29.

(9) Illinois 73 (8) UNLV 62
Can Demetri McCamey salvage a disappointing season for the Illini by helping Illinois avoid turnovers against UNLV, which is among the Division I leaders at forcing mistake?

ANSWER: An emphatic yes. McCamey had 17 points and seven assists to pace Illinois’ offense, which shot nearly 60 percent from the field. The Illini led by about 20 points for much of the game before pulling off the gas pedal late in the game.

30.

(7) Washington 68 (10) Georgia 65
Will Georgia keep things competitive against a Huskies squad that has the firepower to blow the Bulldogs out of the gym?

ANSWER: Oh yes. Georgia was in the game until the final seconds when the Bulldogs’ desperation heave to tie the game clanked off the backboard. The Bulldogs slowed down the Huskies’ fast-paced offense, holding Washington to 43.3 percent shooting. Georgia’s turnovers doomed the Dawgs’ upset bid, as 14 turnovers allowed Isaiah Thomas to rack up the points in transition.

31.

(11) VCU 74 (6) Georgetown 56
How will the Hoyas play with Chris Wright back in the lineup after a dismal offensive finish while Wright recuperated from a broken wrist?

ANSWER: Very poorly. VCU slapped around the Hoyas in Wright’s return to the lineup. Wright struggled all night, finishing with six points on 3-of-13 shooting. He had no assists and two turnovers. VCU’s pressure defense controlled the tempo, and the Rams’ shooters drained 12 three-pointers.

32.

(3) Syracuse 77 (14) Indiana State 60
How will the Sycamores attack Syracuse’s zone when they aren’t a particularly impressive three-point shooting team and don’t attack the glass hard for offensive rebounds?

ANSWER: The Sycamores hung in there for a while with a little long-range shooting and several second chances. But they didn’t get enough of either to seriously challenge Syracuse for the massive upset, and the Orange pulled away late in the second half.

• Purdue’s loss to Michigan State costs the Boilermakers a No. 2 seed. Louisville’s run to the Big East championship game allows the Cardinals to move into that spot.
• Likewise, the Spartans move up from a No. 10 seed to a No. 9 seed with the win.
• The Boston College vs. Clemson game was likely a bubble elimination game, especially because Penn State knocked off Wisconsin, thus moving into the field at the expense of the Eagles. Boston College not only lost to the Tigers but also looked terrible in the 23-point blowout.
• Kentucky’s win gets the Wildcats up to a No. 4 seed, at the expense of St. John’s, which slides to the No. 5 line.
• Georgia’s loss to Alabama hurts the Bulldogs’ seeding but doesn’t knock them out of the tournament. There just aren’t enough other teams worthy of moving into the field ahead of Georgia, and that includes the Crimson Tide. Alabama is moving closer, with four wins against the RPI top 50. However, the Crimson Tide must win against Kentucky today to have any prayer of reaching the tournament, and they probably need to claim the SEC’s automatic bid.

Let’s get to the brackets. As always, please share your thoughts.

Here are links to the recent projected fields.

Projected Field 8.0
Projected Field 7.0
Projected Field 6.0
Projected Field 5.0
Projected Field 4.0
Projected Field 3.0
Projected Field 2.0
Projected Field 1.0

In addition, take a look at the bracket projections from a whole slew of different sources, updated daily by the good folks at the Bracket Project.

As Selection Sunday approaches, there are only a handful of teams on the outside that can still move their way into the tournament. Those teams include:

• Memphis
• Penn State
• New Mexico
• Alabama

That means the loser of today’s Boston College vs. Clemson quarterfinal in the ACC Tournament could be in trouble if one of those four wins today and tomorrow. The Eagles and Tigers are both participants in the First Four games as of now, which means they’re perilously close to falling out of the field.

Let’s get to the brackets. As always, please share your thoughts.

Here are links to the recent projected fields.

Projected Field 7.0
Projected Field 6.0
Projected Field 5.0
Projected Field 4.0
Projected Field 3.0
Projected Field 2.0
Projected Field 1.0

In addition, take a look at the bracket projections from a whole slew of different sources, updated daily by the good folks at the Bracket Project.

It’s not a good vs. evil story. It’s merely the Final Four, and its two No. 5 seeds (injury-riddled Michigan State and Butler) battling each other for one spot in the championship game while the ACC’s and No. 1 seed Duke combats the Big East’s and No. 2 West Virginia for the other. Two feel-good stories vs. two bracket-saving, household names.

It should be fun. Let’s take a look at those Final Four-ers.

Even though it’s a second consecutive Final Four trip for the Spartans (28-8), the state of Michigan should still be pleasantly shocked to find them there. Michigan State has walked on the borderline of survival in every round to reach these instances, having won its four games by an average of 3.25 points. Clutchness and healthy doses of guards Korie Lucious and Durrell Summers have done the trick. They have the Spartans feeling they can go from 2009 runner-ups to 2010 champions despite their major underdog status.

However, when it comes to underdogs, no team barks louder than the Bulldogs of Butler (32-4). Fans are growing either hopeful or tired of hearing about how this team’s run is not unlike that of the Hickory team from the “Hoosiers” movie, the story of a small-town Indiana high school squad that wins the state championship — my apologies if I ruined the movie for anyone.

The similarities are there. Butler is also from Indiana and plays in the mid-major Horizon League. Adding to that, the Bulldogs have pulled their set of upsets to get to the Final Four. They beat their region’s No. 1 and No. 2 seeds — Syracuse and Kansas State, respectively — to get a shot at the title while playing in their home state.

As it’s been the case all tournament long, swingman Gordon Hayward will be key for Butler, not just because of his team-leading scoring but because of his rebounding. The sophomore will need to set a tone on the glass and hope his teammates follow. Michigan State is one of the best rebounding teams in the country, and extra possessions could be the difference. The Spartans, for their part, must take Butler’s playing-at-home spirit out right off the bat. And they shouldn’t rely on their crunch-time skills. Butler, which comes into the game having won 24 consecutive games, has been just as good in those instances this tournament.

Whichever squad remains alive after the underdog-off will have to face a powerhouse in the championship game. Duke (33-5), thought by many to be the most vulnerable No. 1 Tournament seed, is the only No. 1 seed to make it to the Final Four. The “Big Three,” guards Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith and forward Kyle Singler, combine for about 70 percent of the Blue Devils’ total scoring and has carried Duke past every team it was supposed to beat. Now, however, Duke, a team that relies heavily on three-point shooting, will face its biggest offensive test against a lengthy West Virginia (31-6) squad that forced another No. 1 seed, Kentucky, into misfiring on 28-of-32 three-point attempts in their Elite Eight match.

The Mountaineers not only are long and effective zone defenders but also feature one of the most exciting players in the field: forward Da’Sean Butler. Butler hasn’t needed to hit any big shots this post-season as West Virginia hasn’t had any major scares during its run, but Butler is one bad dude when called upon, as proven by his two game-winners in the Big East Tournament. He and forward Devin Ebanks are the Mountaineers’ main offensive weapons.

Smith is the guy for Duke. His ability to break down defenses and create, along with his reliable jump shot, could have West Virginia scrambling out of their zone defense rather early. The Blue Devils are an outstanding shooting team, and the Mountaineers might not have a choice but to play them man-to-man. How West Virginia adjusts to Duke’s shooting ability will be the deciding factor. And it would also help the Mountaineers if they could make a couple of shots. Defense is what’s gotten them this far, but they’re the worst shooting team remaining. West Virginia has shot less than 42 percent in all of their tournament wins.

Because of its underdog of underdogs’ status, Butler is the team that seemingly everyone wants to win it all, especially because the Bulldogs are playing in front of their home crowd. Michigan State will be a tough rival, but these teams are evenly-matched. Meanwhile, on the other side, Duke will need a good shooting day to get past the Mountaineers, who will pray for an average shooting day to help them get back to the championship game for the first time since 1959. It should be fun.

Predictions that will probably be completely wrong: Butler and Duke advance. And Duke wins it all.

Racers’ fans went into a frenzy. Many people who had never even heard of the school before celebrated the feel-good upset just because of its own strange nature. Even more people, however, kicked at the ground and muttered curse words because the unexpected result shook up their brackets.

That was just the beginning. Perhaps inspired by the Racers’ Day 1 shocker, a No. 12 seed, Cornell, decided it would ride hot-shooting all the way into the Sweet 16, a similar case to that of No. 10 St. Mary’s, which unleashed its beast of a center, 6-11 Omar Samhan, in the South Region and knocked out second-seeded Villanova to also join the field of 16.

And after No. 9 Northern Iowa’s Ali Farokhmanesh made the most cold-blooded crunch-time 3-pointer in recent tournament memory to cement his team’s Sweet 16 ticket while taking down overall-top-seeded Kansas on Saturday, it was official that at least 90 percent of the country’s brackets had gone more busted than a piñata on Cinco de Mayo.

Putting aside the almighty custom of wagering on tournament predictions, however, March Madness has been splendid so far. Down-to-the-wire games have been numerous, as have been upsets. High seeds Kansas, Villanova, Georgetown, Vanderbilt, Wisconsin and Temple all got axed, but their executioners gave the competition parity and diversity. Entering the Sweet 16, 11 conferences will be represented.

Out of all surprise teams, Cornell has been the most pleasant one. The Big Red’s wins made it the first Ivy League team to make it this far in more than 30 years, and it did so with authority. Cornell smacked around No. 5 Temple in the first round and then did the same to No. 4 Wisconsin in the second while shooting a combined 58.6 percent in the games.

Even better than that, though, has been the performance of St. Mary’s Samhan, who has totaled 61 points through two games while making 24 of 32 field goal attempts. His supremacy has been the reason the Gaels are enjoying the best season in their history while Villanova is already home, lamenting its collapse.

Speaking of failure, that’s been the theme of the postseason for Nova’s conference. The Big East, widely regarded as the best league in college basketball, had a tournament-best eight entrants, but half were done by the end of the first round, and two more followed soon after in the second. Only No. 1-seed Syracuse in the West Region and No. 2-seed West Virginia in the East remain.

First-round meat: No. 6 Marquette, which blew a 15-point lead in the second half and lost to an out-to-prove-the-Pac-10-is-not-that-weak No. 11-seed Washington; No. 3-seed Georgetown, which was blasted by Ohio, a team that had a losing record in the MAC and got into the Dance only after winning its conference’s tournament; Notre Dame, which was zoned out of the tournament by No. 11-seed Old Dominion; and No. 9-seed Louisville, which also got embarrassed by the Pac-10, by Cal.

No. 3-seed Pittsburgh made the second round, but the Panthers couldn’t hang with No. 6-seed Xavier on Sunday and were ousted.

With so many high seeds gone so early, thanks in big part to the Big East, it’d clearly be silly to count any team out. In the East, No. 1-seed Kentucky will have the challenge to cool down the Big Red’s red-hot shooting, and West Virginia will have to remain impressive to get past an also-remarkable Washington. In the South, No. 1-seed Duke, which has made quick work of its rivals so far, will face a Purdue team missing Robbie Hummel, and No. 3-seed Baylor will deal with Samhan, St. Mary’s scary big man.

In the Midwest, Cinderella Northern Iowa will face No. 5-seed Michigan State, ecstatic after its buzzer-beating win over Maryland Sunday, and No. 2-seed Ohio State, the favorite to win the section now that Kansas is gone, will take on No. 6-seed Tennessee. In the West, No. 5-seed Butler, which got a scare from Murray State before advancing via a 54-52 win Saturday, will meet with Syracuse. The winner will play the winner of the Kansas State-Xavier game.

Predictions? We’re not too big on them these days, but the solid candidates to advance are Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke, West Virginia and Ohio State. These teams have been imposing through their first two games. They’re as dependable picks as Kansas was before Saturday.

A seasoned point guard with plenty of NCAA Tournament experience, including one national championship already? Check.

A tough-minded beast in the post with NBA-caliber talent? Check.

A few athletic swingmen who cause match up problems against smaller guards? Check.

A great statistical profile that included an offense and defense ranked in the top 10 in efficiency? Check.

A veteran coach who knows how to win big games? Um, we might need to leave that box blank.

Since coach Bill Self arrived in Lawrence in 2003, the Jayhawks have reached the NCAA Tournament every season. In 2008, Self guided Kansas to its first championship in 20 years by upsetting the top overall seed, North Carolina, and then beating Memphis in a thriller. The media eagerly added Self to the pantheon of the greatest coaches in the game today.

But perhaps we all embraced Self’s success a little too hastily.

Besides 2008, what has Kansas accomplished under Self? If Saturday’s loss to Northern Iowa stunned you, I recommend that you sit down for this one.

If you don’t count the championship season, Kansas has won exactly one NCAA Tournament game against a team seeded better than No. 8. One! That doesn’t seem possible, especially for a team that has been seeded No. 4 or better in every one of those NCAA Tournaments. For crying out loud, Cornell and St. Mary’s have topped that total this season alone!

Let’s run down the recent NCAA Tournament history of the Self-made Kansas Jayhawks.

• 2004: In Self’s first season with the Jayhawks, the team earned a No. 4 seed and beat No. 13 Illinois-Chicago, No. 12 Pacific and No. 8 UAB before losing to No. 3 Georgia Tech in the Elite Eight.
• 2005: With high expectations as a No. 3 seed, Kansas flamed out in the first round against No. 14 Bucknell.
• 2006: Kansas fared no better the next season as a No. 4 seed, losing to No. 13 Bradley in the first round.
• 2007: As a No. 1 seed, Kansas made its second-deepest run under Self, beating No. 16 Portland State, No. 8 Kentucky and No. 4 Southern Illinois before losing to No. 2 UCLA.
• 2008: The Jayhawks earned a No. 1 seed and won the national championship by taking out No. 16 Niagara, No. 8 UNLV, No. 12 Villanova, No. 10 Davidson, No. 1 North Carolina and No. 1 Memphis.
• 2009: After winning the championship, the reloaded Jayhawks got a No. 3 seed and beat No. 14 North Dakota State and No. 11 Dayton before losing to No. 2 Michigan State.
• 2010: Expected to win their second national championship in three seasons, the Jayhawks became the first No. 1 seed to lose in this year’s tournament when No. 9 Northern Iowa knocked them off.

In three of seven tournaments, Kansas has been victimized by teams seeded eight, nine and 11 seeds worse than the Jayhawks’. Those all count as major upsets. In 2004 and 2009, the Jayhawks were the beneficiaries of other upsets and beat three teams seeded No. 8 or worse in the second round and Sweet 16 before eventually losing to the first better seed they played.

In 2007, Kansas made its best run outside the championship season as the Jayhawks beat the hardest possible team, based on seed, in each round before losing to UCLA, and there’s no shame in losing to a No. 2 seed in the Elite Eight.

But even Kansas’ run to the national championship in 2008 is littered with lucky breaks. The Jayhawks drew overmatched No. 12 Villanova in the Sweet 16 and exhausted No. 10 Davidson in the Elite Eight. If Stephen Curry hadn’t simply run out of steam with five minutes to go, the Wildcats might have pulled off yet another major upset of Self’s Jayhawks.

In the 2008 Final Four, Kansas played the single best NCAA Tournament game of the Bill Self era when the Jayhawks crushed North Carolina with a huge first half. The Jayhawks used a 31-6 to squash North Carolina’s hopes by midway through the first half. However, even with a 28-point lead, Kansas tried to give away the game as the Tar Heels rallied to cut that huge deficit to four points. They ran out of gas — a la Curry in the Elite Eight — and Kansas held on for an 84-66 victory.

In the championship game, Kansas was the team delivering an epic rally. When Memphis’ Robert Dozier hit two free throws with just more than two minutes remaining, the Tigers has a nine-point cushion and appeared set to win the championship. But Memphis missed 4-of-5 free throws in the final 75 seconds — perhaps bad karma derived from Derrick Rose’s academic machinations in high school — setting the stage for Mario Chalmers’ miraculous game-tying three-pointer in the waning seconds. Kansas carried the momentum through overtime and surged to a 75-68 championship game victory.

There’s no doubt that Self is a good coach. He is an excellent recruiter, and his teams statistically play great defense and efficient offense. However, his NCAA Tournament résumé is far from proven, and it’s way too early to label him a great coach as long as the Jayhawks have twice as many NCAA Tournament losses (six) than wins against teams seeded better than No. 8 (three).