2010 Atlantic 10 Post-Mortem

The 2009-10 season came after an off-season of transition for the Atlantic 10, as the conference moved its offices from the long-time home of Philadelphia to Newport News, Virginia. That was forgotten once the action got going on the hardwood, and not just because that’s what fans cared about. It was a big year for the conference, as it topped the previous record for non-conference wins with 135 and placed three teams in the NCAA Tournament. For good measure, two teams made a run to the NIT Final Four, with Dayton taking home the title, and three teams made the CBI, with Saint Louis making it to the final before losing to VCU (which also took out George Washington in the opening round).

For a lot of conference play, there was much buzz about how many teams might make the NCAA Tournament. At one point, many felt the conference could get as many as six teams, especially with the weak Pac-10, disappointing Big Ten and down years in conferences like the ACC and Conference USA. Six teams were certainly in play for a while, but much like two years ago, some of the teams in the bottom half of the conference started playing spoiler late in the season.

The post-season has been a good one thus far for the conference in the coaching ranks. Chris Mooney and Brian Gregory passed on overtures from other schools who had head coaching vacancies to stay with Richmond and Dayton, respectively. Fordham hired Tom Pecora to take over its program, while Charlotte hired Alan Major, regarded by many as an under-the-radar assistant, to take over for Bobby Lutz. Overall, there is some stability, which bodes well for the future.

Final Standings

Conference Tournament

The first round took place at campus sites, with the home team winning three of the four games by double digits. The only game that did not fit that description was UMass’ 59-56 win at Charlotte in a defensive struggle. The seeds held in the quarterfinals save for Rhode Island’s 63-47 win over Saint Louis, although Xavier had to hold off Dayton and Richmond had to do the same with UMass to move on. Temple shut down Rhode Island for a 57-44 win in one semifinal, while Richmond needed overtime to knock off Xavier in a great game in the other semifinal. The Spiders got a game-tying layup from Kevin Anderson (27 points) to send it to overtime, where David Gonzalvez (26 points) hit a three-pointer to start them on the road to victory in the extra session.

In the championship game, Temple appeared to pull away early in the second half as they were up four at the half and led by 12 with just over 12 minutes left. But Richmond rallied, holding the Owls to just 33 percent from the field in the second half, and made it a ballgame late, where the Owls had to make free throws to seal the 56-52 win.

Postseason Awards

Player of the Year: Kevin Anderson, Richmond

Rookie of the Year: Chris Gaston, Fordham

Most Improved Player: Chris Johnson, Dayton

Defensive Player of the Year: Damian Saunders, Duquesne

Coach of the Year: Fran Dunphy, Temple

All-Conference Team

Kevin Anderson, Jr. G, Richmond

Lavoy Allen, Jr. F, Temple

Jordan Crawford, So. G, Xavier

Damian Saunders, Jr. F, Duquesne

Chris Wright, Jr. F, Dayton

Season Highlights

• Of the 135 non-conference wins, 19 came against BCS conferences. That ranked fourth this season behind the Big 12 (28 wins), SEC (25) and ACC (25).

• Fran Dunphy continues to be a master on the bench. Temple lost a lot from last season’s team, including Dionte Christmas, but all the Owls did was win 29 games and their third straight conference title.

• The All-Atlantic 10 first team didn’t have a single senior, although one member of it (Jordan Crawford) will not be back next season.

• Rhode Island didn’t finish the regular season well after winning a lot of close games early, but Jim Baron became the first Ram coach to lead the team to three straight 20-win seasons.

• Although they faded in conference play, George Washington had a nice non-conference run that included five road wins. Only two teams in the conference won more road games than the seven the Colonials posted in total on the season.

What we expected, and it happened: Xavier had a new coach and no clear go-to guy, but the Musketeers continued to win. They didn’t miss a beat with Chris Mack taking over for the departed Sean Miller, and Jordan Crawford became the star of the team. Mack posted the most wins of any first-year coach in Division I, and the Musketeers reached the Sweet 16 for the third straight season.

What we expected, and it didn’t happen: La Salle was far from the contender many expected them to be, finishing 4-12 in the conference and not making the conference tournament. The Explorers were a senior-laden team, but an early injury to Ruben Guillandeaux set them back and a foot injury to Kimmani Barrett around the start of conference play was a back-breaker. The Explorers didn’t win a game in the month of February after they looked like they might come to life early in Atlantic 10 play. They weren’t deep in the backcourt before the injury to Guillandeaux, who started the season strong, and it showed as no team turned the ball over more than the Explorers did. They didn’t make up for it at the other end as only one team forced fewer turnovers.

What we didn’t expect, and it happened: Saint Louis finished in fourth place and made a deep postseason run, reaching the championship of the CBI. The Billikens looked to be at least a year away with a roster that featured 11 freshmen and sophomores and no seniors. But they racked up a good record in a manageable non-conference slate, then started February with six straight wins.

Team(s) on the rise: Saint Louis. The Billikens had no seniors on the roster, and after getting to the final of the CBI expectations will certainly be higher next season.

Team(s) on the decline: Saint Joseph’s. The Hawks were expected to be in rebuilding mode this year, but they looked worse than a rebuilding team. The upshot is that they finished with a winning record at home in their first year in the new arena, but there wasn’t much else to write home about this year and next year isn’t certain to be much, if any, better. Three players have transferred, Darren Govens and Garrett Williamson graduate and only two seniors will be on next year’s roster.

2010-11 Atlantic 10 Outlook

As good as this year was, next year could be even better for the conference. Ten all-conference players return next year, including four of five from the first team, as well as a strong crop of players that comprised the All-Rookie team. Stability is ever-present with many teams, especially from a coaching standpoint. Teams that lose key players won’t drop all the way back; Xavier and Temple will be fine, as will Dayton despite graduating several starters. Richmond shouldn’t be a one-year wonder, and Jim Baron appears to have Rhode Island in a good place although they’ve fallen agonizingly short of the NCAA Tournament a couple of times recently. Saint Louis, St. Bonaventure and George Washington appear to be on the way up, although a few teams don’t look to be on the rise right now. The immediate future for some middling programs like Charlotte, Duquesne and UMass is a little tough to figure right now.

A year ago, the conference’s move to Newport News, Virginia seemed like an odd destination given the conference’s geographic footprint. It had to make one wonder what the future of the conference would look like. Right now, the future looks quite positive based on the season just completed and what the season ahead could look like.

NIT Thoughts and Reflections

NEW YORK – The 73rd National Invitation Tournament is in the books. The thought was on everyone’s mind during the days in New York; the hope is it doesn’t come to pass. With expansion of the NCAA tournament to 96 teams seemingly inevitable, the general feeling around Madison Square Garden was the NIT would be in the history books. And it was not a sentiment that observers expressed with positive feelings.

“Ending the NIT would be a tough decision,” Dayton coach Brian Gregory said following the championship game. “Dayton built its brand name here (winning in 1962 and 1968) at Madison Square Garden with coaches like (Tom) Blackburn and (Don) Donaher. It’s important to play here at Madison Square Garden.”

Roy Williams admitted an NIT Final Four was not an objective as practice started in October. Williams would rather play the first Monday, not Thursday, in April. Still, he was pleased to be playing in a tournament with established prestige. “I have always had a great appreciation of the history and tradition of the NIT,” Williams said after the semifinal win over Rhode Island.

History and tradition were common words used by coaches, players and observers regarding the NIT, the nation’s oldest post-season tournament. The end of that tradition and history would make college basketball a little bit poorer if the greed behind 96 teams allows the NIT to end.

Semifinals

Dayton 68, Mississippi 63
North Carolina 68, Rhode Island 67 (OT)

Championship

Dayton 79, North Carolina 68

• Jim Baron took the high road. With just under ten seconds left in overtime and North Carolina clinging to a one-point lead Larry Drew II took a jumper with the shot clock almost at expiration. The shot missed. Rhode Island grabbed the long rebound and appeared headed in transition. The URI player fell, no call, and seconds later the buzzer sounded.
  “We got the rebound it looked like there was contact and (the URI player) tripped,” Baron said regarding those final seconds. The Rhode Island mentor was quick to add that the final play did not decide the outcome. “We have been good all year from the line,” Baron said. “Tonight we missed the free throws down the stretch. North Carolina made their free throws near the end of regulation and in overtime. They made the plays needed to win, we did not.”
• Dayton relied on solid defense to get to New York. The Flyers continued that trend en route to their third NIT championship. In the semifinal win over Mississippi, the Flyers limited Ole Miss to 34 percent shooting from the floor. The SEC representatives struggled from three-point range, shooting only 6 of 23 (26 percent). The two main threats, Terrico White and Chris Warren, were a combined 4 of 17 against the Dayton defense.
• Offensive rebounding was a Dayton concern in the final against North Carolina. Against URI, the Tar Heels enjoyed a 27-15 edge on the offensive boards, which translated into 15 more field goal attempts than the Rams. In the final Dayton battled UNC even 11-11 on the offensive glass.
• North Carolina did come out in the final with a more effective perimeter game. Through the first four NIT games the Tar Heels shot 26 percent from beyond the arc. Against URI in the semis they were 2 of 17, a haggard 12 percent. Against the Flyers the Tar Heels shot 8 of 15 (53 percent) for the game. They trailed by 13 at the half and used their three-point shooting, notable by junior swingman Will Graves ( a game-high 25 points on 7 of 13 from three) to get right back into things after intermission.
• Dayton saw their lead cut to one during the first four minutes of the second half in the championship. The Flyers’ Marcus Johnson then hit a three-pointer to get the lead back to four. For most of the second half it was a two-possession game, but the significant thing for Dayton was not losing the lead in that final half.

All Tournament Honors

Most Outstanding Player – Chris Johnson, Dayton – 14 points vs. Ole Miss, team high 22 points 9 rebounds in the final.

All Tournament:
Delroy James (URI) – 13 points 8 boards vs. UNC
Will Graves (UNC) – 14 points vs. URI, 25 in the championship game.
Deon Thompson (UNC)- Double figures in scoring and rebounding both nights. He broke an NCAA record in the championship by appearing in the 152nd game of his collegiate career.
Marcus Johnson (Dayton) – Team-high 20 points in final, scored 12 in semis.

Tempo Free, Other Numbers

• No surprise. To get this far you need defense. Dayton got both opponents under 1.00 points per possession in New York. In fact, Dayton had the only offensive performance over 1.00 PPP with a stellar 1.16 against North Carolina.

• The semifinals, thanks to a healthy turnout of URI devotees, drew 11,689, while the final attendance was 9,827 and a good percentage were backing Dayton.

From the NIT Final Four press conference. Each of the four head coaches was asked what the NIT means, in general, to them.

Jim Baron, URI: “It’s tradition and history when you think of the teams and players that played here. Walt Frazier was an unknown before playing in the NIT (with Southern Illinois in 1967). He got drafted and led the Knicks to two NBA titles. The Garden is special. I used to sneak into it when I was young to watch Red Holzman’s Knicks.  The NIT also gives you the memories of great people in New York basketball like Frank and Al McGuire.”

Brian Gregory, Dayton: “For me as a coach at Dayton it means trying to continue a great tradition established by coaches (Tom) Blackburn and (Don) Donoher. Back then Dayton built its national recognition largely on what they did in the NIT.  This tournament has always meant a great deal to our fan base.”

Andy Kennedy, Mississippi: “The NIT makes me think of the heritage and lineage of a great tournament. There are no excuses for playing in the NIT. It gives teams an opportunity to win a championship and playing in the Garden is always a big deal.”

Roy Williams, UNC: “The NIT means tradition. It is a tournament that has meant so much to college basketball. The players today may not realize the tradition, but it is always special to get to play in New York. My junior year at North Carolina (70-71) we lost by one in the ACC final to South Carolina. We got the chance to play in the NIT and won it. Back then the NCAA had 24 teams and the NIT 16, so getting in post-season was difficult.”

Bracket Breakdown: Pac-10′s Struggles Will Benefit Mountain West, Atlantic 10

With the Pac-10 experiencing more upheaval than the conference has had in 20 years, it’s increasingly likely that the Pac-10 won’t field more than one team in the NCAA Tournament if California wins the conference’s automatic bid.

Since 1989, the Pac-10 has had no fewer than three bids in the NCAA Tournament, and that only happened twice. In the past three tournaments, the Pac-10 has placed six teams in the field. With the sudden decline of traditional powerhouses such as Arizona and UCLA, a couple other conferences stand to benefit, specifically the Atlantic 10 and Mountain West.

Entering the final weekend of January, only one Pac-10 team, California, has an RPI better than 50. And Cal’s solid computer profile — an RPI of 18 — largely depends on the second toughest schedule in the country. But the Golden Bears have fared poorly against those tough teams, losing all four games against top 50 opponents. Only half the conference has any wins against teams in the RPI top 50.

Besides California, every other Pac-10 team has significant hurdles to overcome. The second-place team, Arizona, already has nine losses and is only two games better than .500. The Wildcats probably need to win eight or nine of their final 10 conference games to have a legitimate shot at the NCAA Tournament. Part of the problem is that with so many struggling teams, it’s hard for a team like Arizona to notch any résumé-building victories.

Meanwhile, the Mountain West has four teams in contention for at-large bids. BYU is 20-2 and has an RPI of 22.  The second-place team, New Mexico, is 19-3 and has a higher RPI, at 11. UNLV and San Diego State also are in the top 50 and figure to remain in the at-large discussion until Selection Sunday. In existence since 1999, the conference has never fielded four teams in the NCAA Tournament.

On the East Coast — and Midwest and Southeast — the Atlantic 10 Conference, which has 14 teams, looks ever stronger. The conference’s pre-season favorite, Dayton, sits at seventh place entering the final weekend of January. The Flyers match the Pac-10′s best, California, with a 14-6 record, but Dayton has two wins against teams in the RPI top 50. The team’s non-conference strength of schedule is excellent at No. 20, and the best win is against surging Georgia Tech. No offense to the Ohio Valley Conference’s premier program, but California’s best win is against Murray State on opening day. If you had to pick right now, whom do you want in the NCAA Tournament — California or Dayton?

Besides the Flyers, Temple, Xavier, Charlotte and Rhode Island all have compelling arguments for automatic bids. Temple has the best victory of any team in the Atlantic 10, Mountain West or Pac-10 with an upset of Villanova — the Wildcats’ only loss entering the last weekend of January.

So while the Pac-10 could flirt with one-bid conference status, several strong teams in the Atlantic 10 and Mountain West are poised to seize an opportunity to grab more automatic bids for two non-power conferences. Based on the Pac-10′s performance this season, it’s hard to consider it a power conference on par with the ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten and SEC.

The Notebook

TEANECK, N.J. – Earlier this week in a Big East matchup, Syracuse employed a 2-3 zone the entire game. No surprise as Jim Boeheim has been utilizing that signature defense with outstanding success since the days gas was under a dollar a gallon. No, this was actually the Syracuse women’s team who used in in a thorough 79-38 dismantling of Seton Hall at the Pirates’ Walsh Gym.

It seems coach Quentin Hillman, in his fourth year at the Big East school, was observing men’s practice his first year at Syracuse. “I looked up saw that (national championship) banner and thought about (Boeheim’s) years of winning and felt this was the way to go,” Hillman said. “I decided the 2-3 would be our main defense.” Hillman found early on that he has a friend and confidant in Boeheim. “Coach Boeheim has been great helping me with it. He has watched our practices, made suggestions and we both discuss it regularly.”

The women employ the zone in the same manner as then men. The guards and wings contest three-pointers and other perimeter shots. Seton Hall’s fine junior guard Ebonie Williams struggled through a two-point night on one for eight shooting. Williams was frustrated trying to get a decent look anywhere on the perimeter. Inside players like 6-2 Nicole Micheal and 6-4 Kayla Alexander clog the lane and use their length to break up passes in the paint.

The victory at the Hall left Syracuse at 13-1, the lone loss an OT setback at the hands of Georgetown. Life in the Big East conference for the women, as the men, is a succession of challenges and tough teams. Syracuse, with that patented 2-3, is certainly one of them.

Other Notes

• A little confidence goes a long way. Last week Fairleigh Dickinson rallied from 22 down with 12 minutes to play to earn an 88-85 victory over Sacred Heart. A few nights later Bryant got out to a 10-1 lead over the Knights. FDU interim coach Greg Vetrone called time out and saw a team unsure of what lie ahead. The Knights regrouped en route to a 66-50 victory over the Bulldogs.
  Three nights later FDU defeated Central Connecticut State 83-74 , behind Sean Baptiste’s 26 points, to run their conference record to 3-1. FDU ended 2009 with a 1-12 record. The Knights took advantage of a three-game conference swing at home and are very much in the thick of the NEC race.

  “We have a new coach, a new system and new point guard,” Vetrone said. “Some of the teams we played early we were not ready to face. I said it would take time but (the momentum) is definitely coming.”

  Mike Scott scored 16 against Bryant. The junior point guard has been on fire for FDU. In the Sacred Heart and Bryant games, Scott had a combined 18 assists and zero (no misprint) turnovers in 70 minutes.

• Bryant, in their second year of Division I, is in the Northeast Conference but not eligible for post season play. Tim O’Shea’s group has had a murderous schedule. Included were Boston College, Providence, St.John’s, Indiana and an improved Army club. There were two Ivies as well which happened to be Harvard and Cornell. Following the FDU game Bryant was 0-15. To make matters worse, leading scorer (14.5 PPG) Cecil Gresham, a senior swingman, was lost for the year with an injury in late December.
• There is an interesting doubleheader at Madison Square Garden on Wednesday. Cincinnati visits St. John’s and Fordham meets Dayton at the “World’s Most Famous Arena.”  Cincinnati faces another team in dire need of a conference win. The Bearcats faced Seton Hall at the Prudential Center and the Pirates took an 83-76 decision. Seton Hall earned their first win after losses in conference to West Virginia (overtime), Syracuse and at UConn.

  St. John’s is also 0-3 and in a must-win situation after having lost a tough one at Georgetown, a home collapse down the stretch to Providence and another road game to Louisville. Highly-touted freshman Lance Stephenson will make his MSG debut in a Bearcat uniform.

  Dayton survived a tough OT victory over Duquesne on Saturday and faces Fordham under interim coach Jared Grasso. The Flyers are the Atlantic 10 Conference favorites in the view of many experts. A pair of forwards, junior Chris Wright and senior Marcus Johnson, have been key players for Brian Gregory’s club.

• Seton Hall sharpshooter Jeremy Hazell had 33 points against Cincinnati, his fifth 30-point scoring game this season.
• The difference, from a tempo-free approach for St. John’s thus far:

              W-L	   OFF EFF	DEF EFF
  Overall	   10-5	     100	  93
  Big East    0-3	      90	  106

  The efficiency is the points per possession multiplied by 100. Offensively, the Red Storm overall average 1.00 points per possession on offense. The defense, at .93 is sound. In the Big East those numbers are reversed. The Storm is struggling overall on offense and a bit generous on defense.

  A reason for the defensive slip, beside better talent in the Big east, is the turnover rate. Overall the Storm are forcing opponents into a 20 percent TO rate – that is, one-fifth of the opposition possessions are turnovers. In the Big East that rate on the defensive end is 16 percent. In conference, St. John’s has found it more difficult to force opponents to turn the ball over.