6 First Rounders Who Might Disappoint

In every NBA Draft, some players are just duds.

For every second-round steal — Gilbert Arenas, before the gun charges — there’s a second overall pick that labors to crack a starting lineup, let alone dominate opponents at an All-Star level. I’m talking to you Darko Milicic. Several players in this draft appear to be attractive picks, but certain red flags make them candidates to flop at the next level.

Top Tier Talent

Cole Aldrich, Kansas

What to love: The Jayhawks’ 6-10 junior has the look of a legitimate center, and he has a national championship under his belt. Aldrich was one of the top rebounders in college basketball, averaging 9.9 rebounds per game.

What to hate: Aldrich’s scoring was inconsistent last season. After adjusting scoring for playing time and team tempo, Aldrich had the second-worst per-possession scoring average of any potential lottery pick. And he didn’t have a great workout at the draft combine, posting some of the worst vertical jump results. Aldrich might not have the athleticism necessary to overcome better post defenders in the NBA.

Ekpe Udoh, Baylor

What to love: Udoh was a game-changing defender for the Bears because he averaged 3.7 blocks per game. At 6-10, Udoh is long and athletic, with an excellent vertical leap for a big man.

What to hate: His offensive game is behind the curve, especially for a 23 year old. Udoh had the worst per-possession scoring average of the likely lottery picks, and his shooting percentage, 49 percent, wasn’t great for a big man who stays mostly near the basket. Unlike Aldrich, Udoh has the athleticism of an NBA power forward but lacks any of the polish needed to shine at the next level.

First-Round Reaches

Eric Bledsoe, Kentucky

What to love: As the second option at guard alongside John Wall, Bledsoe helped the Wildcats storm through the regular season and NCAA Tournament before losing to West Virginia in the Elite Eight. He flashed plenty of potential for leading an offense, averaging 2.9 assists per game despite playing second fiddle to Wall at the point.

What to hate: Bledsoe’s shooting was inconsistent at 46.2 percent from the field and 66.7 percent from the free throw line. And he committed too many turnovers: three per game. After adjusting for playing time and tempo, Bledsoe had the fourth-worst scoring average of the top 65 draft picks. He’s raw and could turn into a project.

Avery Bradley, Texas

What to love: Bradley was one of the most heralded recruits entering last season, and he finished No. 2 on the Longhorns in scoring. He shined at the combine, posting a nearly 38-inch vertical leap and torching the three-quarter court sprint in 3.1 seconds.

What to hate: Like Bledsoe, Bradley was horribly inconsistent, a problem that beset the entire Texas squad. Bradley barely edged Bledsoe as the fifth-worst prospect out of 65 in terms of scoring after adjusting for playing time and tempo. Bradley shot even worse than Bledsoe at 43.2 percent from the field and 54.5 percent from the free throw line. At 6-2, he’s a tiny, inconsistent shooter, making Bradley a risky pick. He’s too small to play the 2 guard spot in the NBA, and he didn’t run the point at Texas.

Craig Brackins, Iowa State

What to love: Brackins reliably delivered double-doubles for the Cyclones despite being the team’s only major threat. He averaged 16.5 points and 8.5 rebounds per game. And he has an eight-foot wingspan.

What to hate: Brackins’ scoring dipped significantly this past season, and his shooting percentage fell from 47.5 percent to 42.0 percent. His points per possession put him among the bottom 25 out of 65. He tested the NBA Draft waters last season and didn’t excite teams enough to receive a first-round guarantee. Since then, his game has seemingly regressed.

Soloman Alabi, Florida State

What to love: At 7-1, Alabi has the height that NBA teams covet. He was the centerpiece of a stout Seminoles defense that was one of the toughest to score against last season. Alabi averaged more than two blocks per game. Offensively, he shot better than 53 percent from the field.

What to hate: Alabi was a combine disaster with one of the worst vertical jumps and slowest agility and sprint times of all participants. Alabi’s offensive game is in the middle of the road when adjusting for playing time and tempo. And for a 7-footer, you’d think he’d grab more than 6.2 rebounds per game.