Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 2011-12 Preview

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (13-18, 5-11)

Projected starting five:

Jr. G Mfon Udofia
So. G Brandon Reed
Jr. G Glen Rice Jr.
So. F Kammeon Holsey
So. C Daniel Miller

Important departures:

Coach Paul Hewitt: 255-187 overall record, 189-160 record with Yellow Jackets, 72-104 ACC record in 11 seasons at Georgia Tech.
Iman Shumpert: 17.3 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 3.5 apg
Brian Oliver: 10.5 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 1.5 apg
Maurice Miller: 6.0 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 2.4 apg

Percent returning scoring and rebounding:

Scoring: 51.6 percent
Rebounding: 64.2 percent

Additions:

Brandon Reed, sophomore guard transferred from Arkansas State
Julian Royal, No. 125 Rivals.com and ESPNU four-star power forward from Alpharetta, Ga.

Schedule highlights:

Best non-conference game: vs. Alabama
Toughest conference stretch: Jan. 21-Feb. 1 (at Clemson, vs. Miami, at North Carolina, at Florida State)

Outlook:

After Paul Hewitt took Georgia Tech to the 2004 championship game and proved that he could attract elite talent to Atlanta, Yellow Jacket fans just waited for another Final Four run. It never materialized, and the team dismissed Hewitt after another disappointing season. Brian Gregory now takes over with a decent amount of talent left in the cupboard.

Gregory will need to get solid players like Mfon Udofia, Glen Rice Jr., and Kammeon Holsey to buy in to his game plan. If they do, Georgia Tech could quickly move out of the cellar, possibly into the thick of the ACC teams competing for a final NCAA Tournament bid. Besides the existing lineup, Gregory gets the services of Brandon Reed, an elite scorer who transferred from Arkansas State.

Prediction: Ninth

Next: Maryland Terrapins

Back to ACC preview

Selfish NCAA Rule Betrays Mission to Student-Athletes

BASELINE TO BASELINE

Go coast to coast with a roundup of news from across the nation.

1. Starting next season, players will no longer be able to test the NBA Draft waters. According to the Associated Press, the NCAA approved a rules change that forces players to decide whether they wish to remain eligible for the NBA Draft by the first day of the spring signing period for recruits. This move helps college coaches replace departing players. But it kills players’ opportunity to gauge their draft stock as few NBA teams are prepared to provide full predictions by mid-April.
2. George Mason wasted no time in finding a new coach. According to the Associated Press, the Colonials picked former Georgia Tech coach Paul Hewitt, who was fired at Georgia Tech this past season after 11 years and a 190-162 record. In more than a decade with the Yellow Jackets, Hewitt established a reputation for recruiting top-notch talent, but he only made one deep run in the NCAA Tournament, losing to Connecticut in the 2004 championship game. He replaces Jim Larranaga, who left the school to coach Miami.
3. Nearby, in Washington, D.C., George Washington will be in search of a new coach after firing Karl Hobbs, according to the Associated Press. Hobbs led the Colonials for 10 years, including a great 2005-06 season in which George Washington finished 27-3 and reached the second round of the NCAA Tournament.
4. And in Atlanta, Georgia Tech replaced Paul Hewitt with Brian Gregory, choosing Dayton’s coach over several other candidates, including a 15-year-old from Connecticut. Wha?! According to the Sporting News’ Mike DeCourcy, Ethan Peikes sent Georgia Tech Athletic Director Dan Radakovich a letter containing a cogent argument for why Peikes should become the Yellow Jackets’ next coach.
5. Colgate presumably didn’t get any applications from 15-year-olds, but the school did find its coach from a relatively young member of the coaching ranks. According to the Associated Press, Colgate hired 33-year-old Temple assistant Matt Langel to replace Emmett Davis, who was dismissed after 13 seasons and a 165-212 record.
6. Wisconsin extended the contract of coach Bo Ryan through 2015-16, ensuring stability for one of the best programs in the Big Ten, according to the Associated Press. Ryan has a 242-91 record in 10 seasons in Madison, and his teams regularly excel in the NCAA Tournament and enjoy one of the toughest home court advantages in basketball.
7. Likewise, in Athens, Ga., coach Mark Fox received an extension with Georgia. The Bulldogs will keep Fox through 2015-16 and increase his pay to $1.7 million per year, according to the Associated Press.
8. Amid coaching changes, some players decide it’s time for a fresh start, especially if a new coach has a significantly different system. That looks to be the case at North Carolina State, according to Eamonn Brennan of ESPN.com’s “College Basketball Nation” blog. Freshman point guard Ryan Harrow will leave the Wolfpack to look for a fresh start rather than play for new coach Mark Gottfried.
9. Give coach Bill Self credit. Even though Kansas is losing plenty of firepower this off-season, the Jayhawks will face a brutal schedule next season, with Kentucky and Ohio State definitely on the horizon, according to the Associated Press. Kansas also will be in the Maui Invitational with Duke, UCLA, Georgetown, Memphis, Tennessee and Michigan.
10. And Kansas might find some tougher competition out of Oklahoma in the Big 12 than originally expected. New Sooners coach Lon Kruger has added two Juco players recently to help hasten the rebuilding of the Oklahoma program, according to Sports Illustrated’s “Fan Nation” blog.
11. Louisville coach Rick Pitino has completed a major overhaul of his staff, according to the Associated Press. Pitino added Kevin Keatts as an assistant coach. Keatts arrives at Louisville after coaching Hargrave Military Academy for 10 seasons and winning two national prep championships. Keatts joins Wyking Jones and Pitino’s son Richard on the staff.
12. Quick hits from the NCAA’s attendance report, via ESPN.com’s Eamonn Brennan for the “College Basketball Nation” blog: total number of people attending games is up compared with 2009-10, average per Division I game is down a tad (because of more Division I schools), and average NCAA Tournament attendance is down slightly.

HOME COURT ADVANTAGE

The general consensus is that the NCAA is being selfish in its decision to change the rules on players testing the NBA Draft as early entrants. It’s hard to argue with that sentiment, though the NCAA has an opportunity to do right by student-athletes.

The NCAA is responsible for guiding student-athletes through the collegiate educational experience. That’s not my take; it’s theirs. From the NCAA’s website:

The NCAA’s core purpose is to govern competition in a fair, safe, equitable and sportsmanlike manner, and to integrate intercollegiate athletics into higher education so that the educational experience of the student-athlete is paramount.

By shifting the deadline for players to decide whether they will remain in the NBA Draft or return to school to mid-April, the NCAA is robbing student-athletes of a chance to maximize their educational experience. To borrow a Texas Hold ‘Em poker analogy, the NCAA will be forcing players to go all-in or fold before the flop while letting them see only one card.

In recent years, players have been able to figure out the strength of their draft hand — to see that other card — by receiving evaluations from NBA scouts during late April and May. A few years ago, players had until June to decide whether they’d remain in the draft or return to school. NCAA coaches hated that because they didn’t know what their roster would like and how they should adjust their recruiting strategy in the spring.

The first step in this anti-player direction was a change to the players’ decision deadline to early May. That prevents players from receiving much information, but they can at least make an educated decision about the likelihood that a team will pick them in the first round.

To clarify what’s at stake, the NBA only guarantees contracts to first-round picks. If you’re No. 31, you have to compete with every other unrestricted free agent, NBA Developmental League player and international walk-on who wants a shot at an NBA contract. Good luck. Oh, and you can’t go back to your college team. When early entrants remain in the draft, they’re no longer eligible. You don’t hear of too many players who pay to earn a degree without a scholarship from a school if they fall out of the first round and don’t receive a contract.

For NCAA early entrants, the NBA Draft can be a life-altering decision. Because the NCAA will restrict the relevant information that student-athletes can gather by the mid-April deadline, the NCAA has the responsibility to fulfill its core purpose: ensure that the educational experience is paramount. And that experience is paramount to the self-centered interests of coaches who fear they’ll lose their jobs without NBA-caliber players on their roster instead of leftover recruits.

For the NCAA to fulfill that purpose, it needs to create a method for student-athletes to receive NBA evaluations throughout the season. Perhaps the NCAA should form a consortium of current or former NBA scouts who provide monthly ratings or reviews, citing comments from NBA executives. If the NCAA wants to follow the money, it would need to wade into the world of sports agents, who are perhaps most motivated to gauge players’ value and translate that into NBA dollars. An objective sports agent might not exist, but that’s for the NCAA to figure out.

As the rules stand now, the NCAA is failing its student-athletes. A failed system is bound too fall apart as soon as a better alternative presents itself. And that could quickly emerge from the heavily financed underworld of unscrupulous sports agencies and self-employed talent consultants, who might take an even more aggressive stance and try to fill a need in this evaluation process — if the NCAA doesn’t step up to fully educate its players.

Stable Tar Heels, Seminoles Have Good Reason for Optimism

If roster and coaching stability means anything, fans in Tallahassee and Chapel Hill should be optimistic about the 2011-12 season.

Florida State and North Carolina figure to return at least 70 percent of their scoring from this year, and they have tenured ACC coaches at the helm. However, each team has a question mark that could decide whether the Seminoles and Tar Heels become stalwarts of the top 10 or bounce around the Top 25 polls. … Continue Reading

After Shaky Start, ACC Needs Holiday Tourney Joy

It might be early in the season, but the ACC is already entering a critical week.

After a bumpy start to the season, conference teams enter the holiday tournament season needing to win some statement games. And the outlook isn’t great.

In the first week and a half, Wake Forest has dropped two home games, and Georgia Tech got obliterated by Kennesaw State. The Yellow Jackets gave up 80 points to the Owls, who mostly played only five guys. Georgia Tech’s eight-man rotation floundered, shooting only 35 percent while committing 19 turnovers.

In Winston-Salem, the Demon Deacons figure to have a long season ahead in coach Jeff Bzdelik’s first year at the helm. Stetson shot 46.4 percent against Wake Forest and, more revealing, out-rebounded Wake Forest 42-31. ACC teams shouldn’t get outworked in their own building to open the season, unless they’re facing a top 10 opponent. That’s just embarrassing.

But there’s plenty of time to change course. Although the conference ranks fifth in winning percentage of the six power conferences, there’s no shame in Virginia Tech losing at Kansas State or Miami losing at Memphis. Road victories for either team would have been a major upset for the conference.

The early season emergence of the ACC must start tonight, when Maryland plays Pittsburgh in the semifinals of the 2K Sports Coaches vs. Cancer Classic. The Terrapins are one of seven ACC teams playing in tournaments during the next 10 days. However, Maryland is one of the few teams with an opportunity to pick up crucial statement victories.

Against Pittsburgh, Maryland will be decided underdogs, and a strong showing, even in a loss, would give the Terrapins plenty to crow about. If the team can beat Pitt or their next opponent — either Illinois or Texas in the championship or consolation game — the trip to Madison Square Garden would be a success. The worst-case scenario for the ACC and Maryland is a two-game sweep in which the Terrapins don’t look competitive against some of the strongest teams from the Big East, Big Ten and Big 12.

In San Juan, North Carolina is the highest rank team in the Puerto Rico Tip-Off. That means the young, unproven Tar Heels are supposed to win the tournament, and anything short of a three-game sweep against a field that includes West Virginia and Minnesota would be a disappointment. We’ll quickly find out how this year’s Tar Heels handle the pressure of lofty expectations after last season’s squad fell apart.

Back on the shores of South Carolina, North Carolina State is one of the favorites in the Charleston Classic. The only way for the Wolfpack to pick up a quality win is to reach the championship game and beat Georgetown. A loss to anyone besides the Hoyas would be detrimental to North Carolina State’s résumé and the ACC’s credibility.

Georgia Tech and Boston College have the best opportunity to grab unexpected quality wins in the Legends Classic in Atlantic City and the Old Spice Classic in Orlando, respectively. Georgia Tech will face either Syracuse or Michigan in the championship or consolation game of the Legends Classic. However, the Yellow Jackets must first get past a tough UTEP team, which is perfectly capable of knocking off a shaky ACC team. The Eagles face a bunch of tough, unranked teams, with the exception of a possible match up with Temple. Boston College needs to represent the ACC well in potential games against Cal, Georgia, Texas A&M, Notre Dame and Wisconsin.

On the West Coast, Virginia Tech finds itself in the same situation that North Carolina does in Puerto Rico: tournament favorite. The Hokies’ toughest opponents in the 76 Classic are Oklahoma State, UNLV, Stanford and Murray State. Unfortunately for Virginia Tech’s résumé, the Hokies won’t garner much more clout by doing anything less than stomping those teams, which won’t be easy, especially 3,000-plus miles away from Blacksburg, Va.

And then there’s Duke. The reigning national champs are No. 1, so they’re supposed to beat anyone, anytime. Despite those ridiculous expectations, the Blue Devils would have a great opportunity to assert themselves as the unquestioned favorites to win this season’s national title if they draw Kansas State and beat the Wildcats in the CBE Classic in Kansas City, Mo. It’s practically a home game for the Wildcats, so a Duke victory would be huge for the ACC’s elite.

2010-11 ACC Preview

For the second consecutive year, an ACC team will open the season as defending national champ. And Duke has a real shot at delivering back-to-back titles for the second time in coach Mike Krzyzewski’s illustrious career. At least, the Blue Devils have a far better chance than North Carolina did last season after the Tar Heels were overhyped and then overmatched en route to coach Roy Williams’ worst season in a couple of decades.

Although critics poke the ACC for lacking the quantity of elite teams that the Big East boasts, the ACC has once again proven that its best teams are legitimate title contenders every year. Duke managed to fly under the radar last season as the media fawned over veteran-laden Kansas and John Calipari’s freshmen sensations at Kentucky. But in the end, a ruthlessly balanced team stormed through the post-season and beat Cinderella, aka Butler, in a thrilling championship game. The two will reprise that battle in December when they meet in New Jersey. … Continue Reading

Cream of Draft Crop Have Plenty of Promise

With the NBA Finals in full effect and the LeBron James sweepstakes as the preferred topic of discussion in the background, not everyone remembers the NBA Draft is also on this month’s schedule. And no one’s to blame, really. Despite the talent the 2010 class holds, the draft has seen better days.

These 2010 guys are out to prove something, though. One won’t know just how great a draft class it will be until years down the road, once these soon-to-be-rookies go on to participate in several All-Star games, win an MVP or simply bust out to play in Europe.

With that disclaimer in play, here is the best the 2010 NBA Draft has to offer.

1. John Wall, point guard, Kentucky

Wall’s undisputedly No. 1. Not only did he help make Kentucky one of the best teams in college basketball last season, he did it as a freshman while averaging great numbers: 16.9 points, 6.4 assists and 4.2 rebounds per game. The 19-year-old is a pure point guard with terrific size, speed and court vision. What he needs to improve is his inconsistent jump shot. But other than that, he’s exactly what troubled Washington — owner of the No. 1 pick — needs after such a tumultuous season.

2. Evan Turner, small forward, Ohio State

Averaging 20 points and almost 10 rebounds per game, Turner got to the rim and grabbed misses almost at will in college. He’s an offensive workhorse who can pass while also excelling on defense. His court vision also is outstanding, evidenced by his six assists per game in 2009-10. Just call him Mr. Versatility. It would be interesting to see how much he gets the ball in Philadelphia, which has the No. 2 pick, though. He was the man in Ohio, but he would be Andre Iguodala’s sidekick in Philly.

3. DeMarcus Cousins, center, Kentucky

So Wall didn’t make Kentucky a contender by himself. He had himself a stud of a big man helping him. Standing at 6-11 and weighing 270 pounds, Cousins averaged 15.1 points and 9.8 rebounds per game in limited playing time — mostly because of foul trouble. He’s only 19 years old and has a lot of potential, good and bad. He has great hands and a scoring mentality, but there are concerns about his weight and maturity. There’s no question Cousins has all the tools necessary to be very good in the NBA. The New Jersey Nets, who have the No. 3 pick, would hope he decides to use them.

4. Greg Monroe, power forward, Georgetown

Two seasons at Georgetown was all Monroe needed to be NBA ready. He’s a double-double machine with great passing ability, and he’s a lefty. He can create his own shot but needs to work on his jump shot, a lot. He’s only 20, though, so there’s a lot of potential for the already-skilled big man. He’ll be a nice pickup for Minnesota, if the Timberwolves take him with the No. 4 pick, who could really use the help after going 15-67 last season.

5. Derrick Favors, power forward, Georgia Tech

The youngest player entering the 2010 NBA Draft, Favors was among the top players in field goal percentage (61 percent) during the 2009-10 season. He averaged 12.4 points and 8.4 rebounds in 27.5 minutes per game. He’s a very effective big man with quickness and athleticism. His youth also means his body hasn’t fully developed, though, so he’ll need to gain some muscle to be a difference-maker. There’s nowhere to go but up for Favors, and the Kings (No. 5 pick) will likely take him.

The only certainty in this 2010 Draft, it seems, is that Wall will go No. 1. Turner at No. 2 is also as good a prediction as a Tim Duncan bank shot. Picks No. 3 through 5, however, can be switched around among New Jersey, Minnesota and Sacramento. None of those big men will be immediate franchise saviors. Potential is their main label.

Sixers, Nets Poised to Surprise People in Draft

In recent days, we’ve shined the spotlight on the Washington Wizards and their likely top pick, Kentucky’s John Wall. Will Wall be good for Washington? Equally important, will Washington be good for Wall?

The next two teams picking at the top of the draft should deliver plenty of story lines, too. The Philadelphia 76ers were the other big winner in the NBA Draft lottery, moving up to the No. 2 spot. New Jersey, which was the favorite to land the No. 1 pick, slid to No. 3.

The 76ers have a chance to solve a fundamental flaw in their team composition. The team’s top player, swingman Andre Iguodala, and several young guards, including Lou Williams and Jrue Holiday, are best suited for an up tempo game. However, the team’s best big man is Elton Brand, who has been beset by injuries and surgeries that have rendered one of the most dominant post players to a plodding half-court player.

The 76ers intend to do everything they can to ditch Brand this off-season, which might be difficult to do because of his injury history and massive contract. But regardless of whether he’s on the team, the 76ers are in prime position to upgrade their athleticism at power forward. Georgia Tech’s Derrick Favors or Kentucky’s DeMarcus Cousins would be great picks. Favors might have more upside than Cousins, who is the more polished player at this point. However, Favors didn’t have as tumultuous a season as Cousins, who frequently came across as a prima donna.

Meanwhile, the New Jersey Nets desperately wanted to land Wall to help market the team to this summer’s top free agents. Of course, free agents can’t start signing with new teams until July, so the Nets will enter the draft June 24 uncertain of what their team will look like in a matter of weeks. That makes projecting the team’s pick more difficult.

However, we do know that new owner Mikhail Prokhorov is extraordinarily rich and extraordinarily determined to win — and fast. He said he wanted to bring a championship to New Jersey/Brooklyn within two or three years. Those are lofty expectations for the worst team in the NBA.

Despite their awful record, the Nets have a decent foundation with Devin Harris at point guard, Brook Lopez at center and a cadre of wing players: Courtney Lee, Chris Douglas-Roberts and Terrence Williams. Prokhorov’s draft strategy might reveal which free agents he believes he can land. Everyone knows LeBron James is his top target. In addition, the Nets need a power forward. If Prokhorov plans to sign Carlos Boozer, Chris Bosh or Amar’e Stoudemire, drafting a player like Favors or Cousins wouldn’t make sense. However, if one of those elite big men won’t be wearing a Nets jersey next season, Prokhorov likely would go with Favors or Cousins.

But if Prokhorov intends to open his checkbook wide enough to draw in one of those top big men, he could use the No. 3 pick on a shooter. Syracuse’s Wesley Johnson comes to mind. Johnson had a sensational year for the Orange, and he is a popular fellow in the greater New York City region. He also has a special talent for shooting the long ball, something the Nets desperately need. If Prokhorov can land Boozer, Bosh or Stoudemire to beef up the post and get James or Dwyane Wade, the Nets would be making an excellent selection by choosing possibly the most talented shooter in the draft.

After Washington makes its pick, the draft promises to become wide open. Expect the unexpected, possibly as soon as Philadelphia makes the No. 2 pick.

Bracket Breakdown: How the ACC Will Fare

The ACC has had a down year. It’s hard to argue that point when only two teams receive seeds better than No. 7 in the NCAA Tournament. And Maryland’s No. 4 seed is probably a little generous. The skeptics think Duke isn’t worthy of a No. 1 seed.

With all that negativity, the ACC enters the NCAA Tournament looking to re-establish its position as one of the top power conferences. Duke has an excellent shot at making that happen as one of the best teams in the country that nobody wants to love. Maryland has an outstanding squad that seemed destined to make some noise in the NCAA Tournament — until the committee placed the Terrapins in Kansas’ region.

The rest of the ACC teams in the tournament play great defense but have suspect offenses. A couple of them have favorable match ups, while a couple others look destined to start the off-season before this weekend. Here’s a complete preview of the ACC’s representatives in the NCAA Tournament.

Duke Blue Devils (Overall: 29-5, ACC: 13-3)

No. 1 seed, South Region

The Blue Devils enter the tournament facing criticism because they received a No. 1 seed instead of West Virginia. The naysayers are further enraged that the selection committee awarded Duke a better No. 1 seed, placing the Blue Devils in the South Region, on the S-curve than Syracuse, which would play its regional semifinal and final games in Salt Lake City. With all this talk about the Blue Devils not being worthy, they have plenty to prove.

But let’s be the Devils’ advocate for a moment. Duke has played like one of the two best teams in the country all season, according to Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency statistics. In fact, based on offensive and defensive efficiency, Duke should be the favorite to win the national championship, not Kansas. Swallow that, critics!

Of course, a team’s performance on the court often contradicts their profile on paper. For Duke to reach the Final Four, the Blue Devils will need to remain ruthlessly efficient on offense. Duke is one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country, anchored by sharp-shooting Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith. Each of those three shoots better than 38 percent from behind the arc and has made at least 49 three-pointers so far. Duke’s offense runs like a well-oiled machine because the team makes the most of its possessions. Duke is one of the best teams at avoiding turnovers and grabbing offensive rebounds.

Defensively, Duke simply makes it hard to score. The Blue Devils force turnovers during more than 20 percent of opponents’ possessions. Teams that don’t turn it over still struggle to score against a defense that allows opponents to only shoot 44.3 percent from inside the arc and 28.2 percent behind it. Duke’s ability to shut down opponents’ long-range shooters is critical to making a deep run in March. Three-pointers can be the great equalizer for seemingly overmatched underdogs. But Duke won’t let someone win that way.

Based on Duke’s draw, the Blue Devils should reach the Final Four. But they will encounter resistance as early as the Sweet 16. No. 5-seed Texas A&M and No. 12-seed Utah State could challenge Duke’s Final Four aspirations in that round. In the Elite Eight, Duke could face No. 3-seed Baylor in Houston in front of a hostile crowd. But the Blue Devils are accustomed to hostile crows at every road game. Look for Duke to reach the championship game before running into the unstoppable force out of Lawrence, Kan. The Jayhawks simply have too many weapons for a shallow Duke team that otherwise matches up favorably against Kansas.

Maryland Terrapins (Overall 23-8, ACC: 13-3)

No. 4 seed, Midwest Region

If Maryland were seeded as a No. 5 or 6 seed in any region outside of Kansas’, the Terrapins would be a trendy pick to wreck some brackets and knock off better seeds. But alas, the Terrapins are a No. 4 seed and would likely face top-seeded in the Sweet 16 of the Midwest Region. Maryland possesses the firepower to hang with Kansas, but the Terrapins don’t have enough defense to pull off what would be one of the biggest upsets of the tournament.

Maryland enters the NCAA Tournament with the No. 6 most efficient offense. Senior superstar Greivis Vasquez is the catalyst for the offense, which puts up nearly 80 points per game. Vasquez contributes almost one-quarter of that scoring, averaging 19.5 points, 4.6 rebounds and 6.3 assists per game. He’s not the best shooter in the tournament, making about 43 percent of his attempts, but he is one of the most fiery leaders. Fueled by Vasquez’s leadership, a trio of experienced players will be ready to contribute. Landon Milbourne, Eric Hayes and Sean Mosley will need to continue to score in double figures to help the Terrapins advance past No. 13 Houston in the first round and then No. 5 Michigan State or No. 12 New Mexico State.

Against Houston, the Terrapins will face the nation’s leading scorer in Aubrey Coleman. Look for Maryland to give up plenty of points to Coleman but limit the production of any other Cougar. The Terrapins would likely obliterate the defensively challenged Aggies. Coach Tom Izzo’s Spartans would provide a more formidable match up, but the Terrapins will win that one on the strength of clutch performances by Vasquez and Hayes. But Kansas will end Maryland’s hopes. In all, the ACC co-champions should be happy with a run to the Sweet 16. It would mark their best season in nearly a decade.

Clemson Tigers (Overall: 21-10, ACC: 9-7)

No. 7 seed, East Region

As the No. 7 seed in the East Region, Clemson has a tough draw. The Achilles’ heel for the Tigers has been a downright ugly turnover rate. More than 20 percent of the team’s possessions end in a turnover. That’s a problem when facing No. 10-seed Missouri, which is one of the three best teams in the country at forcing turnovers. The Tigers desperately need guards Demontez Stitt and Andre Young to take care of the ball. The two combine to average 4.4 turnovers per game and only 5.6 assists per game. That’s not a great ratio for the team’s primary ball-handlers.

However, if Clemson can cut down the turnovers, senior Trevor Booker will have a huge day. He leads the team with 15.3 points and 8.3 rebounds per game, with about one-third of those rebounds coming at the offensive end. Missouri is one of the worst teams in the country at keeping opponents off the glass.

On defense, the Tigers from Missouri might play right into the strength of the Tigers from Clemson. Missouri likes to jack up lots of three-pointers. But Clemson allow only 29.4 percent three-point shooting this season, ranked tenth-best.

Clemson will win a wild one against Missouri that should see plenty of turnover-induced scoring runs. But the Tigers will run into trouble against West Virginia. That game could start as a blowout for West Virginia and end with Clemson making it interesting before falling short at the end.

Florida State Seminoles (Overall: 22-9, ACC: 10-6)

No. 9 seed, West Region

Based on their offensive inefficiency, the Seminoles have no business beating anyone in the tournament. But Florida State’s defense manages to make games ugly enough to give the Seminoles a chance. As the No. 9 seed in the West Region, Florida State will face a stiff challenge from No. 8 Gonzaga. In the end, Gonzaga’s balance will undo another strong defensive performance by Florida State.

The Seminoles are among the 15 worst teams in the country at protecting the ball. All those turnovers will lead to defeat against Gonzaga. And if they fall behind, the Seminoles will struggle to rally because they shoot only 33.5 percent from three-point range. Center Solomon Alabi will deliver another strong performance in the paint, but he could easily finish with more blocks than the team has three-pointers. Barring an epic defensive performance, that’s not a good recipe for success in the NCAA Tournament.

Florida State’s best chance at victory is to keep the score under 60 points and maintain at least a two-possession throughout the second half. The Seminoles are a bad free throw shooting team and will need as large of a cushion as possible in the closing moments to stop a late rally. Gonzaga probably won’t even need that, though.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons (Overall: 19-10, ACC: 9-7)

No. 9 seed, East Region

Wake Forest, the No. 9 seed in the East Region, has a veteran lineup with three senior starters and a future NBA Draft pick in sophomore Al-Farouq Aminu. But for the second consecutive season, the Demon Deacons are sliding at the end of the season as losers of five of their last six games. To avoid a second straight one-and-done NCAA Tournament performance, the Demon Deacons need to find a way past equally underwhelming No. 8 Texas.

With six wins against the RPI top 50, Wake Forest has the talent needed to beat the Longhorns and maybe even challenge top-seeded Kentucky. But it won’t happen. The team’s offense is floundering, primarily because of the two-headed monster of turnovers and bad shooting. Wake Forest ranks among the bottom half of Division I teams in protecting the ball, and the Demon Deacons shoot a dismal 31.3 percent from three-point range and 47.6 percent inside the arc. Even if Wake Forest has a lead, the team’s 66.0 percent free throw shooting could jeopardize the win.

Aminu will struggle against Texas’ superstar, Damion James. He might approach his average of 15.7 points per game, but if Aminu needs to guard James on the perimeter throughout the game, he won’t be able to grab as many rebounds as usual (10.7 per game). Likewise, James and Dexter Pittman have the size needed to box out Wake Forest’s big men and cut off one of the Demon Deacons’ strengths: their ability to grab offensive rebounds.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (Overall: 22-12, ACC: 7-9)

No. 10 seed, Midwest Region

Like Wake Forest and Florida State, the Yellow Jackets are far better at stopping opponents than scoring. But in comparison to those two ACC peers, the No. 10 seed in the Midwest Region is much better offensively. Georgia Tech will face an offensively oriented team in No. 7-seed Oklahoma State. Both teams have played inconsistently this season, and the Cowboys might rely too much on scoring sensation James Anderson. That would behoove the Yellow Jackets.

Georgia Tech doesn’t let opponents shoot well from anywhere, and Anderson will struggle to find clean looks against the much taller Yellow Jackets. Forwards Gani Lawal and Derrick Favors will need to the difference makers for Georgia Tech. The two big men combine to average 25.6 points, 17.2 rebounds and 3.5 blocks per game. Collectively, they grab more than six offensive rebounds per game. In a game that likely will figure plenty of missed shots, rebounding will be critical, and Georgia Tech has an advantage.

Interestingly, Georgia Tech’s likely second-round opponent, No. 2-seed Ohio State, has a similar profile to Oklahoma State, with Evan Turner dominating the offense and the rest of the team coming along for the ride. But the rest of the Buckeyes are much better than the rest of the Cowboys. Ohio State will take advantage of Georgia Tech’s proclivity to commit critical turnovers to win a closer than expected game.

In summary, the ACC figures to have mostly expected results. As a No. 1 seed, Duke is supposed to reach at least the Elite Eight. The Blue Devils will deliver on that promise en route to a championship game appearance — and loss — to Kansas. Besides Kansas, only Maryland will reach the Sweet 16. Wake Forest and Florida State will fail to win a game, while Georgia Tech and Clemson will advance one round before losing to No. 2 seeds.

However, the ACC will likely surprise critics with Duke’s success and close losses to presumably far superior teams.

Bracket Breakdown: ACC’s Offensive Woes Will Limit Tourney Success

Yes, North Carolina represented the ACC well last season by winning the national championship. But the other six ACC teams in the NCAA Tournament bowed out in ugly performances. Four of them failed to put up 60 points in their final game, and four teams lost by at least 15 points. Offensive inconsistency was the downfall of ACC teams last season, and the top teams’ performance this season indicates that history might repeat in March.

As of Feb. 2, the ACC has six teams in the RPI top 50: Duke, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Florida State, Clemson and Maryland. All of those teams except Georgia Tech played and lost in last season’s NCAA Tournament. So each team entered this season with hopes of another trip to the Big Dance, but each knew it needed to improve to last longer in the tournament.

Of those six teams, only Duke can feel confident that it is on pace to make a lasting impact in the NCAA Tournament. The Blue Devils are one of only four teams that rank in the top 20 for offensive and defensive efficiency, as measured by Ken Pomeroy. In the past six NCAA Tournaments, 17 of 24 Final Four participants have met that profile. In addition, Duke is one of the best teams in the country in defending the perimeter, which makes the Blue Devils less susceptible to the machinations of a hot-shooting dynamo. Plus Duke avoids giving teams extra possessions, committing only 12.0 turnovers per game. More importantly, the Blue Devils have a pair of sound ball-handlers in Nolan Smith and Jon Scheyer, who commit fewer than two turnovers per game.

Based on efficiency numbers, Maryland would appear to be poised to make some noise in the NCAA Tournament. The Terrapins rank No. 20 for offense and No. 21 for defense. However, Maryland also has some concerning statistics to overcome. Despite having a guard-oriented lineup, the Terrapins are porous on the perimeter. Opponents get more than 30 percent of their scoring from behind the arc. And when they miss, they grab offensive rebounds nearly 36 percent of the time. When Memphis stomped Maryland in the NCAA Tournament last season, the Tigers hit 10 three-pointers and out-rebounded the Terrapins 33-23.

Maryland wasn’t the only ACC victim sniped down by long-distance sharpshooters in the last NCAA Tournament. Florida State lost in overtime largely because Wisconsin hit nine three-pointers. The Seminoles also committed 14 turnovers to the Badgers’ nine. Superstar point guard Toney Douglas single-handedly accounted for that differential by committing five turnovers. This season, the Seminoles are one of the worst teams in Division I in protecting the ball, averaging about 17 turnovers per game. Florida State tries to overcome that sloppiness with the No. 1 defense, based on efficiency. Although the Seminoles make it hard to score, they are vulnerable on the perimeter, allowing opponents to make about seven three-pointers per game. Opponents get 35.2 percent of their points from three-point territory. Frequent turnovers, a sluggish offense — ranked No. 105 in efficiency — and lackluster three-point defense are key ingredients in the recipe for a first-round NCAA Tournament upset.

Like its ACC brethren, Wake Forest gave up some untimely three-pointers in its major first-round upset to Cleveland State in last year’s NCAA Tournament. But the Demon Deacons lost mostly because they failed to play under control, committing 18 turnovers and forcing only six. All-ACC guard Jeff Teague ushered in the disaster with seven turnovers. Although the Demon Deacons’ offense has regressed this season — from No. 43 in efficiency last season to No. 88 this season — Wake Forest has tightened its three-point defense, with opponents managing only 23.7 percent of their points from behind the arc. Wake Forest’s tournament hopes this season will depend largely on the Demon Deacons’ ability to stop three-point shooters. And it also will rely on point guard Ish Smith controlling the tempo and limiting turnovers.

Clemson looks like a mirror image of Wake Forest, and the two won’t meet until the final game of the regular season March 7. The Tigers lost to Michigan in the first round of last year’s NCAA Tournament by giving up 10 three-pointers and struggling on offense. Unlike Wake Forest, which gave away the ball too often, the Tigers simply couldn’t hit shots. For a team ranked No. 16 in offensive efficiency, Clemson looked inept against Michigan and coach John Beilein’s 1-3-1 zone defense. The Tigers have work to do on offense this season and are ranked only No. 92 in efficiency. But they should be better prepared to handle a perimeter-oriented team because opponents get only 22.2 percent of their points from behind the arc, the 39th best rate in Division I. The Tigers play suffocating defense that forces turnovers, so Clemson figures to match up well against many teams defensively. The question the Tigers must answer is whether they can muster enough offense to get past one or two tournament opponents.

Of the ACC’s best teams based on RPI, Georgia Tech figures to be the lone newcomer to the NCAA Tournament. But Georgia Tech might face a familiar fate. The Yellow Jackets have a solid defense, ranked No. 8 in efficiency, but a mediocre offense, ranked No. 64. In addition, they give up a significant percentage of opponents’ points (29.5 percent) from behind the arc. And they turn the ball over more than 16 times per game. Point guard Iman Shumpert is guilty of playing carelessly too often, averaging 3.3 turnovers per game. For a young team with no NCAA Tournament experience, the Yellow Jackets could run into trouble in the first round if they play a fundamentally strong team that has been to the NCAA Tournament one or two consecutive years — think Cornell or Siena.

By the end of the season, the ACC could look back at the 2010 NCAA Tournament with a sense of deja vu. Duke could easily make a run to the Final Four, with only one or two other ACC teams making it past the first weekend of play and a couple of highly seeded teams going down in first-round upsets. Outside Duke and Maryland, all of the ACC’s powerhouses need to find a way to avoid offensive slumps — the kind of lackluster performances that can lead to March Madness melancholy.