Maryland: Bubble Boys Could Turn Into Cinderella

For the fifth time in six years, Maryland prepares for the stretch run as a bubble team. Although the Terrapins sit precariously close to the bubble, they also have the profile of a team that could cause trouble in the NCAA Tournament, and the emergence of a senior guard not named Greivis Vasquez might be the ticket to glory in the Big Dance.

After an impressive 6-2 start to conference play, everyone seemed to assume that the second-place ACC team would earn a bid to the tournament. But the Terrapins’ profile doesn’t back up that assumption. Of those six wins, four were against the bottom third of the conference: North Carolina, North Carolina State, Miami and Boston College. It’s not Maryland’s fault that the Tar Heels are in a funk this season, but the team doesn’t deserve any more or less credit for slamming North Carolina, ranked No. 80 in the RPI, than Gonzaga should get for beating Portland, ranked No. 78.

As the middle of February passes, Maryland has only two wins against the RPI top 50 thanks to the Terrapins’ regular-season sweep of Florida State. Besides those two wins, Maryland has whiffed on each opportunity to pick up a marquee win, with losses to Wisconsin, Villanova, Wake Forest and Duke. This past weekend’s embarrassing 21-point defeat to the Blue Devils, Maryland’s biggest rival, is especially stinging.

If the selection committee had to decide the field on the afternoon of Feb. 15, Maryland would probably be in the NCAA Tournament. But the Terps could easily be among the final four teams even though few experts are discussing the team as in danger of missing the tournament. Somewhat paradoxically, Maryland has the look of a team that could make a fairly deep March run — if they make the tournament at all — and the Terrapins only need to make subtle tweaks to become a truly potent squad.

Maryland is one of only nine teams to rank in the top 25 for offensive and defensive efficiency, according to Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency statistics. On offense, the team shoots 38.6 percent from three-point territory, good for No. 27 in the country. And they don’t let teams beat them from behind the arc, as opponents shoot only 32.1 percent from three-point range. That improvement might be the biggest defensive change from last season, when Maryland let opponents shoot 34.7 percent from three-point territory. That liability led to an 89-70 blowout to Memphis in the second round of the NCAA Tournament when the Tigers hit 10-of-19 three-pointers to build an early insurmountable lead.

Although the team’s efficiency statistics are strong, they might be even better if senior guard Eric Hayes gets more involved on offense. A Terp fan might wonder how a senior who already plays 30.4 minutes, which is No. 2 on the team to Vasquez, needs to have an even bigger role. However, despite his playing time, Hayes is only involved in about 15.5 percent of Maryland’s offensive possessions, according to Pomeroy’s team-by-team breakdowns. And that’s not enough involvement for a player who shoots 45.2 percent from three-point range, 53.5 percent from inside the arc and 92.3 percent from the free throw line.

In comparison to his teammates, Hayes is the No. 6 offensive weapon, behind Vasquez, Landon Milbourne, Sean Mosley, Jordan Williams and Adrian Bowie. Cliff Tucker and James Padgett play fewer than 16 minutes per game, but when they’re in the game, they also have a higher percentage of involvement on offense than Hayes does. Coach Gary Williams needs to make sure that Hayes becomes more than just a decoy down the stretch. For his part, Hayes must be more active on offense and work to get open. With a great guard like Vasquez, opponents must constantly follow him around the court, which should give Hayes more room to operate.

If Williams can devise a few extra plays to go Hayes’ way each game, he could easily become involved in about 20 percent of the team’s possessions. That doesn’t mean he has to force a shot every time he touches the ball. But based on his shooting percentages, Hayes already knows what a good shot is. So if Maryland feeds him more, at least to match the offensive importance of Milbourne, the Terrapins’ offensive efficiency could soar closer to the top 10 by the beginning of March Madness.

For the record, in the past four NCAA Tournaments, 21 of the 25 teams that had offensive and defensive efficiency ratings in the top 20 reached at least the Sweet 16. And right now, that means the Terrapins would probably be one of the most dangerous No. 7-12 seeds in recent memory.

Maryland Shows Its Potential in Dominating BC

CHESTNUT HILL, Mass. – Maryland’s 73-57 win at Boston College was a game that showed just how good the Terrapins can be.  The Terrapins dominated the game at both ends of the floor and got significant contributions from a few key complementary players.  And while the Eagles haven’t been playing well lately, that can’t take away from what this game showed.

The Terrapins were in control pretty much from the outset.  They were all over the Eagles early on with their press, and when BC got into a half court game, the Terrapins still stopped them, often putting pressure on the ball to force a turnover or bad shot.  They led by as many as 18 in the first half, shooting 50 percent from the field and having a 22-4 edge in points in the paint in large part due to easy baskets they were able to get.  They turned 11 Boston College turnovers into 14 points.

“We came to play,” said senior guard Greivis Vasquez.  “I thought we should have won that game against Wake Forest, and we came here to play.  We came here to play hard and to win this game.”

Vasquez led the Terrapins with 17 points and nine assists.  When the Terrapins weren’t stifling the Eagles with their defense, Vasquez helped them pick apart the Eagle defense.  They shot 49.1 percent for the game, including 7-12 from long range, and had 17 assists with nine turnovers.  He’s having a tremendous season in averaging over 18 points and six assists per game, with an assist/turnover ratio of nearly 2.

“I thought Greivis really did a good job of getting everybody involved in the game today, and early,” said head coach Gary Williams.  “When he plays like that, he’s a force, there’s no doubt about it.”

For about a month now, Vasquez has been playing on another level.  In a loss to Villanova in the BB&T Classic, Vasquez was 3-9 from the field and had seven assists but also seven turnovers.  Since then, he has been on a tear, scoring at least 20 points in each of the seven games leading up to Saturday.  While he fell short of that on Saturday, no one can say he had an off day on his birthday.

While Vasquez was the protagonist, he had plenty of support.  Landon Milbourne was active and had 13 points and six rebounds, playing the kind of basketball he’s capable of.  Sean Mosley had a solid game with six rebounds and good defense.  Eric Hayes didn’t put up big numbers but was steady.

Most of all, the Terrapins got a big effort off the bench, especially from Adrian Bowie and Cliff Tucker.  Bowie scored 15 points and helped keep the pressure on the Eagles, while Tucker, who might be their best athlete, had 14 on 5-6 shooting.  Tucker made all three of his shots in the second half and all three of his shots from behind the arc.

“I was really glad to see Cliff (Tucker) playing the way he played, he hit those threes, and I was really glad to see Adrian play the way he was playing,” said Vasquez, who helped both get going.

The Terrapins need to get bench production to take some pressure off the starters.  They average 17 points a game off the bench and entered Saturday’s game being out-scored in that area.  The reserves were a big reason the Terrapins looked very much like an NCAA Tournament team on Saturday.

“When the bench plays as well as it did, I think our team plays better,” said Bowie.  “A lot of games, the bench doesn’t really do that much, and we put a lot of pressure on the starters.”

The only drawback for the Terrapins was getting out-rebounded 40-28, with each half being a 20-14 margin in favor of the Eagles.  But the Terrapins dominated in every other facet of the game, so it wasn’t an issue.  Williams feels they can run if they rebound, but even with the rebounding edge for Boston College, the Terrapins still had a 20-4 edge in fast break points and a 34-10 edge in points in the paint.

Maryland heads home for three straight games having won three out of four.  The only loss was an overtime loss at Wake Forest where they certainly had a chance to win.  Williams feels like the team is playing well, but knows the challenge is to keep it up, especially after a game like Saturday.

“The hardest thing is to maintain a level of play like that,” said Williams.  “You see teams do that all the time.  You see them one week and they look like the best team in the country, and then two weeks later, what happened?  Well, it’s hard to keep that going.  That’s what we’re going to try to do.”

If they do, they will look like the NCAA Tournament team many projected them to be before the season.