Bracket Breakdown: Final Mock Tournament of 2010

Here are the Mock Tournament’s final picks, as of 5:15 p.m. on Selection Sunday — barring a miraculous comeback by Minnesota.

Teams in bold have won an automatic bid.

Bracket Breakdown: Mock Tournament 10.0

In mere hours, the selection committee will lift the mystery on the 2010 NCAA Tournament, unleashing bracket madness throughout the country.

As Selection Sunday arrives, the Mock Tournament has once again undergone significant changes. We have a new No. 1 seed, West Virginia, and fewer major conference bubble teams thanks to upset victories by Houston and New Mexico State. UTEP and Utah State take two at-large bids, turning the Conference USA and WAC into two-bid conferences.

The bubble could contract further today if Mississippi State wins the SEC championship. Today’s action could produce other changes to the brackets.

• Temple and Richmond could swap spots as No. 4 and No. 5 seeds if the Spiders beat the Owls.
• Florida would be the first team out if the Bulldogs win.

We have only four more games to go before all automatic bids are accounted for. Enjoy the games, and check back later to see how closely the Mock Tournament comes to predicting the field.

Here are the latest brackets and links to previous projections.

• Mock Tournament 9.0
• Mock Tournament 8.0
• Mock Tournament 7.0
• Mock Tournament 6.0
• Mock Tournament 5.0
• Mock Tournament 4.0
• Mock Tournament 3.0
• Mock Tournament 2.0
• Mock Tournament 1.0

Teams in bold have won an automatic bid.

Bracket Breakdown: Mock Tournament 9.0

Less than 36 hours remain until the selection committee unveils the 2010 brackets, and most of the field looks fairly solid. However, upsets in the ACC, Atlantic 10, Big Ten and SEC could lead to trouble for the teams on the precipice of falling out of the field.

A couple of teams out west, namely Washington and San Diego State, have benefited from the failure of Atlantic 10 and Big East bubble teams to solidify their résumés. In the Mountain West semifinals, the Aztecs scored an important second win against New Mexico. They can avoid the need for at-large bid at all if they beat UNLV in the championship game today. Meanwhile, the Huskies simply continue to win, dispatching Stanford in the Pac-10 semifinals. Win or lose against California in the championship game, Washington should be in.

With the late addition of Washington and San Diego State to the field, teams like Rhode Island, South Florida and Dayton are on the outside looking in. And only the Rams can do anything about it because the Bulls and Flyers have already lost in their conference tournaments. Rhode Island can make a stronger case for the NCAA Tournament with a win against Temple in the Atlantic 10 semifinals. The Rams have only one win against the RPI top 50, so even an upset against the Owls might not be enough to make the field.

A slew of automatic bids are on the line today. Check out the bracket as the stand Saturday morning, and let us know if they look right to you or totally out of whack.

Here are the latest brackets and links to previous projections.

• Mock Tournament 8.0
• Mock Tournament 7.0
• Mock Tournament 6.0
• Mock Tournament 5.0
• Mock Tournament 4.0
• Mock Tournament 3.0
• Mock Tournament 2.0
• Mock Tournament 1.0

Teams in bold have won an automatic bid.

Bracket Breakdown: Mock Tournament 8.0

Does anyone actually want to be in the tournament this year? Several teams that couldn’t afford to lose Thursday did. A few others hurt their seeding by dropping opening round games.

Here are a few of the notable losses:

• Memphis and UAB lost in the Conference USA semifinals to Houston and Southern Miss, respectively.
• Kent State got blown out by Ohio in the MAC quarterfinals.
• Clemson and Wake Forest lost in the opening round of the ACC tournament to North Carolina State and Miami, respectively.
• Arizona State lost to Stanford in the Pac-10 quarterfinals.

As a result of the chaos, teams like Illinois, Florida, Mississippi and Washington look like they’ll be in the field right now. Of course, check the Mock Tournament again tomorrow to see how today’s actions affects the projected field. We’re down to only two days until Selection Sunday.

Here are the latest brackets and links to previous projections.

• Mock Tournament 7.0
• Mock Tournament 6.0
• Mock Tournament 5.0
• Mock Tournament 4.0
• Mock Tournament 3.0
• Mock Tournament 2.0
• Mock Tournament 1.0

Teams in bold have won an automatic bid.

Bracket Breakdown: Mock Tournament 7.0

We’re halfway through championship week, and 14 teams have punched their ticket to the Big Dance. From Robert Morris to Weber State, fans and players are celebrating conference championships and automatic bids. For many, a mere invitation to the NCAA Tournament is worthy of an all-night party.

But for bubble teams in power conferences, coaches’ livelihoods depend on their ability to regularly lead their team to the promised land of the NCAA Tournament. With second-round losses in the Big East tournament, Seton Hall and South Florida can only return home and wait anxiously for Selection Sunday. With a blowout loss to St. John’s in the opening round, Connecticut almost certainly will be looking at an NIT invitation rather than an NCAA Tournament bid.

The inability of Big East bubble teams to make a deep run helps the likes of Illinois, Minnesota, San Diego State and Washington. As those teams’ conference tournaments kick into full gear Thursday and Friday, they will look to accomplish what their bubble brethren could not: earn their way into the NCAA Tournament. And opportunities abound thanks to surprisingly few upsets in conference tournaments so far.

The dominant mid-major teams have done the power conference bubble teams a favor during the past week by winning their conference tournaments. Northern Iowa, Old Dominion and Butler would have likely received at-large invitations to the NCAA Tournament if they needed one. But all three won their conferences’ automatic bids, likely rendering the Missouri Valley Conference, Colonial Athletic Association and Horizon League one-bid conferences.

Because no team from outside the bubble has earned its way into the field, the latest Mock Tournament projected field remains the same. However, the shape of the bubble is shifting, with Dayton, Rhode Island, Washington, Memphis and San Diego State poised to play their way into the field. South Florida is eminently vulnerable after losing to Georgetown Wednesday. Illinois, Florida and Mississippi also figure to be replaced by one of the teams on the wrong side of the bubble if they falter in their conference tournament openers.

The light at the end of the tunnel is within view, but for nearly a dozen teams on the cusp of reaching the tournament, there’s plenty of work still to go.

Here are the latest brackets and links to previous projections.

• Mock Tournament 6.0
• Mock Tournament 5.0
• Mock Tournament 4.0
• Mock Tournament 3.0
• Mock Tournament 2.0
• Mock Tournament 1.0

Teams in bold have won an automatic bid.

Bracket Breakdown: Mock Tournament 6.0

We’re down to the final week before Selection Sunday, and the field is starting to take shape with five teams already in the field: Cornell, East Tennessee State, Murray State, Northern Iowa and Winthrop. While those teams played their way into the field, others appear intent on playing their way out.

For the second consecutive weekend, big losses were rampant throughout the basketball nation. Connecticut’s loss to South Florida gives the Huskies 14 losses, meaning that they would need to become the first at-large team with 15 losses to make the NCAA Tournament unless they find a way to win the Big East tournament this week. Cincinnati finds itself in the same boat after losing its third straight game and fifth in six tries.

In the Big Ten, Illinois paralleled the Bearcats’ poor finish with its third straight defeat Sunday, a 72-57 loss in Champaign to Wisconsin. Illinois has a more compelling case for an at-large bid than Cincinnati does thanks to three wins against the RPI top 25. However, the Illini have 13 losses and an RPI of 73. Illinois will get another crack at the Badgers in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament, and the Illini might need to win that game to avoid getting bounced off the bubble.

Besides the bubble teams, several others lost big games that affect their seeding in the latest version of the Mock Tournament.

• Kansas State drops to a No. 3 seed after inexplicably losing at home in overtime to Iowa State, ranked No. 113 in the RPI.
• Villanova also drops to the No. 3 line after losing at home in overtime. However, these Wildcats shouldn’t be as ashamed to lose because West Virginia is finishing the season strongly.
• Vanderbilt also suffered a home loss — to South Carolina — and falls to the No. 6 line.

Here are the latest brackets and links to previous projections.

• Mock Tournament 5.0
• Mock Tournament 4.0
• Mock Tournament 3.0
• Mock Tournament 2.0
• Mock Tournament 1.0

Teams in bold have won an automatic bid.

Bracket Breakdown: Mock Tournament 5.0

With several bubbles near bursting, fans from coast to coast just want some more wins in the final nine days before Selection Sunday. Entering the final weekend of the regular season, Huskies, Illini, Gators and Bearcats are sweating their teams’ fading profiles.

While some fans nervously await their conference tournaments, other fans will celebrate their invitation to the Big Dance when the Atlantic Sun, Big South, Missouri Valley and Ohio Valley conferences crown a 2010 champion. We have a great weekend of basketball ahead, with teams like Purdue, Duke and Kansas State slugging it out against other opponents while competing with one another for the final No. 1 seed. The urgency of bubble teams from the Big East and SEC will come close to matching the pure joy felt by several newly crowned conference champions.

In Version 5.0 of the Mock Tournament, I take the predictions a step further by assigning first-round match ups. In creating match ups, I occasionally deviate from the 1-65 rankings. For example, in the interest of putting Utah State closer to home, I bumped the Aggies from a No. 10 seed to No. 11 seed. Rhode Island benefited by moving up to a No. 10 seed even though the Rams are one of the last few teams to make the tournament.

Perhaps most controversial, I have nine Big East teams in the field with the inclusion of Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish’s late surge is undeniably impressive. However, many readers — especially those Gator fans — might protest leaving Connecticut in the field given that the Huskies lost at Notre Dame Monday and now have 13 losses. Within a week, the Huskies might be out of the field. But as of March 5, they’re in thanks to marquee wins against West Virginia and at Villanova. However, Connecticut would be wise to avoid losing at South Florida Saturday. It would be the Huskies’ 14th loss, and unless they win the Big East Tournament, they would enter Selection Sunday with 15 losses. No team has received an at-large invitation with 15 losses.

Let’s get to the brackets. Compare this field to previous Mock Tournaments, and leave a comment to share your thoughts about the projected field.

Mock Tournament 4.0

Mock Tournament 3.0

Mock Tournament 2.0

Mock Tournament 1.0

Bracket Breakdown: Mock Tournament 4.0

College basketball nation didn’t wait for the calendar to flip to March to start the madness. A little insanity seeped into February, as this past weekend delivered a few major upsets and several incredible games. Many teams already seem to be playing as if they’re in elimination games. And for some of our bubble teams, that might just be true.

During the final weekend of February, the top three teams in the polls lost. Upsets and inconsistency wreaked havoc among the teams in the projected field, causing upheaval in the fourth installment of the Mock Tournament brackets.

For the first time, we have movement at every seed level that involves at-large teams. That includes a new No. 1 seed in Duke, which simply keeps winning — something that most of the Blue Devils’ elite compatriots can’t claim. Purdue fizzled in its first game without Robbie Hummel, who is done for the year with a torn ACL. The Boilermakers have games remaining against Indiana and Penn State, which they should win. If they falter against two of the Big Ten’s weakest opponents, the team could slip as low as a No. 3 or 4 seed.

The weekend’s big winner was the Big 12. Specifically, Baylor, Texas A&M and Oklahoma State notched chest-puffing wins against tough conference opponents and subsequently inched higher in projected seeding. Oklahoma State made the biggest leap, vaulting the Bears and Aggies to claim a No. 4 seed. The Cowboys looked impressive in dismantling Kansas Saturday.

However, Oklahoma State’s place among the top 16 teams is tenuous, especially with a midweek game at Texas A&M looming. The Aggies have not lost to any team not nicknamed the Jayhawks in College Station this season. And projected to be a No. 5 seed, Texas A&M is probably itching for an opportunity to pick up another high-quality win and take Oklahoma State’s spot among the top four seeds.

Among the teams just making or missing the tournament, Rhode Island fell the hardest after losing at St. Bonaventure, which benefited Florida. The Gators are making their debut in the Mock Tournament’s field. Here’s some more bubble talk.

• Cincinnati remains in the field but can probably afford to lose only one more game between now and Selection Sunday.
• A few Atlantic 10 teams, specifically Charlotte, Dayton and Rhode Island, have picked a bad time to lose their mojo.
• Don’t look now, but Washington is starting to make a case for a second bid out of the Pac-10.
• Notre Dame might want to keep Luke Harangody sidelined for a while longer if the Fighting Irish continue to win. They are one more high-quality win away from entering the field.

Check out the first three Mock Tournaments to see the evolution of the projected field.

Mock Tournament 1.0
Mock Tournament 2.0
Mock Tournament 3.0

As always, share your thoughts by leaving a comment. Starting Friday, the Mock Tournament will extend its projections to include regions and pod assignments.

Bracket Breakdown: You Be the Judge, Big East Style

With the addition of Cincinnati, DePaul, Louisville, Marquette and South Florida in 2005, the Big East evolved into a super-conference. Seven of the 16 members have national championship banners hanging in the rafters, and the conference’s teams have collectively been to 43 Final Fours. South Florida is the only member that has never reached the Final Four.

This season, the Big East is once again poised to have a fantastic NCAA Tournament and will likely put more teams in the tournament than any other conference. Entering the final weekend of February, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia, Georgetown and Pittsburgh are locks to make the tournament. In addition to those five powerhouses, eight other Big East teams have a legitimate shot at reaching the NCAA Tournament. But the bubble will invariably burst for some of those teams.

The eight teams competing NCAA Tournament bids are:

• Cincinnati
• Connecticut
• Louisville
• Marquette
• Notre Dame
• Seton Hall
• South Florida
• St. John’s

Check out their profiles below, and pick four teams to reach the NCAA Tournament. Then check out the latest Mock Tournament to see which teams we project to reach the field as of Feb. 26. The answer key for the team profiles is below.

Team A (Overall: 17-11, Big East: 7-8)

RPI: 40
Strength of schedule:  2, non-conference SOS: 5, conference SOS: 32
Record vs. RPI top 50: 3-6
Losses to teams outside RPI top 100: 2
Record in neutral/road games: 3-8
Best wins (teams listed by RPI): vs. 5, at 8, vs. 22, vs. 52, vs. 57
Worst losses (teams listed by RPI): at 148, at 109, twice vs. and at 59, vs. 55

Team B (Overall: 18-9, Big East: 9-6)

RPI: 55
Strength of schedule:  65, non-conference SOS: 203, conference SOS: 44
Record vs. RPI top 50: 3-7
Losses to teams outside RPI top 100: 2
Record in neutral/road games: 6-6
Best wins (teams listed by RPI): vs. 9, vs. 14 (neutral), at 40, at 59, vs. 66
Worst losses (teams listed by RPI): at 185, vs. 122

Team C (Overall: 18-10, Big East: 7-8)

RPI: 72
Strength of schedule: 61, non-conference SOS: 196, conference SOS: 37
Record vs. RPI top 50: 2-4
Losses to teams outside RPI top 100: 2
Record in neutral/road games: 2-7
Best wins (teams listed by RPI): vs. 10, vs. 59, twice vs. and at 66
Worst losses (teams listed by RPI): at 127, vs. 93 (neutral) vs. 75, at 59, at 52

Team D (Overall: 16-11, Big East: 6-9)

RPI: 66
Strength of schedule: 43, non-conference SOS: 246, conference SOS: 20
Record vs. RPI top 50: 3-4
Losses to teams outside RPI top 100: 1
Record in neutral/road games: 6-7
Best wins (teams listed by RPI): at 9, vs. 10, vs. 49, vs. 52, vs. 59
Worst losses (teams listed by RPI): vs. 209, at 75, twice vs. and at 72, at 59

Team E (Overall: 16-11, Big East: 7-8)

RPI: 59
Strength of schedule: 29, non-conference SOS: 53, conference SOS: 72
Record vs. RPI top 50: 4-6
Losses to teams outside RPI top 100: 0
Record in neutral/road games: 4-8
Best wins (teams listed by RPI): vs. 15 (neutral), vs. 28 (neutral), twice vs. and at 40,
Worst losses (teams listed by RPI): at 75, at 72, at 66, vs. 55

Team F (Overall: 15-12, Big East: 5-10)

RPI: 75
Strength of schedule: 33, non-conference SOS: 73, conference SOS: 46
Record vs. RPI top 50: 3-8
Losses to teams outside RPI top 100: 2
Record in neutral/road games: 6-6
Best wins (teams listed by RPI): vs. 13 (neutral), vs. 36 (neutral), vs. 41, vs. 59, at 66
Worst losses (teams listed by RPI): at 127, vs. 109, vs. 55, vs. 52

Team G (Overall: 18-10, Big East: 9-6)

RPI: 41
Strength of schedule:  6, non-conference SOS: 21, conference SOS: 34
Record vs. RPI top 50: 2-6
Losses to teams outside RPI top 100: 1
Record in neutral/road games: 4-6
Best wins (teams listed by RPI): at 4, vs. 40, vs. 59, vs. 66
Worst losses (teams listed by RPI): vs. 119, at 75, vs. 56, at 52

Team H (Overall: 16-10, Big East: 7-8)

RPI: 52
Strength of schedule: 18, non-conference SOS: 162, conference SOS: 17
Record vs. RPI top 50: 3-9
Losses to teams outside RPI top 100: 0
Record in neutral/road games: 3-7
Best wins (teams listed by RPI): vs. 10, vs. 41, at 48, vs. 59
Worst losses (teams listed by RPI): at 66

Team A: Connecticut

Team B: Marquette

Team C: Notre Dame

Team D: South Florida

Team E: Cincinnati

Team F: St. John’s

Team G: Louisville

Team H: Seton Hall

Bracket Breakdown: Mock Tournament 3.0

What a difference two weeks can make. Less than 14 days ago, Connecticut was left for dead after Cincinnati completed a season sweep of the Huskies with a 60-48 win in Storrs. But just when everyone was ready to relegate Connecticut to the NIT, the Huskies flipped the switch and started beating the Big East’s beasts.

Almost two weeks later, Connecticut has wins against Villanova and West Virginia — two marquee wins to brag about, in addition to the No. 2 toughest schedule. As a result of the Huskies’ recent hot streak, Connecticut makes its debut in the tournament as a No. 8 seed. Yes, teams can go from the wrong side of the bubble to a solid middle-of-the-road seed in less than two weeks. With remaining games against Louisville, Notre Dame and South Florida, Connecticut has an opportunity to build a six-game winning streak heading into the Big East Tournament and move up the seed chart.

While Connecticut rises, William & Mary continues to falter. After dropping a must-win BracketBusters game at Iona, the Tribe returned home to lose to Towson, ranked No. 273 in the RPI. That loss gives William & Mary three losses to teams in the bottom 150 of the RPI. That’s just too many losses to bad teams, which neutralizes the strength of quality wins against Wake Forest, Richmond and Maryland. Unless the Tribe make a run to capture the Colonial Athletic Association’s automatic bid, the Tribe will once again fail to reach the NCAA Tournament. The team has never gone to the Big Dance since it started in 1939.

Here are some of the other highlights of Mock Tournament 3.0.

• The No. 1 seeds remain the same, but watch Purdue’s performance without Robbie Hummel.
• Baylor and Missouri inch higher in seeding, which reflects the strength of the Big 12 Conference this season.
• Florida State and Virginia Tech are entering bubble trouble, while Louisville can start to feel a little more secure.
• Florida is coming on strong at the right time of year, and Utah State and UTEP are getting closer to earning an at-large bid if they don’t win their conferences’ automatic bids.

Without further ado, here are the Mock Tournament 3.0 seeds. UAB and Cincinnati in the tournament? Florida and Charlotte out? Am I crazy or right on point? Submit a comment to share your thoughts and opinions.

For comparison, also check out Mock Tournament 1.0 and Mock Tournament 2.0. Also, check out a map of NCAA Tournament sites and the schedule for all rounds of the tournament.

Bracket Breakdown: Mock Tournament 2.0

After this weekend’s action, the Mock Tournament 2.0 has a shakeup at the top, with Kentucky replacing Villanova as a No. 1 seed.

I was probably one of the few analysts to leave the Wildcats from Kentucky out of the No. 1 seed club in Mock Tournament 1.0. However, until Kentucky won at Vanderbilt Saturday night, the Wildcats had only two wins against the RPI top 50. Villanova only matched that total but had better marquee wins against West Virginia and Georgetown. Plus Villanova had six wins against the RPI top 50 compared to Kentucky’s four.

But since the last mock brackets arrived three days ago, Kentucky proved that it is one of the toughest teams in basketball by winning a war with the Commodores. Meanwhile, Villanova continued to show its weaknesses in a tight loss at Pittsburgh. Both sets of Wildcats went on the road to face a talented conference opponent that was ranked about No. 10 in the RPI, but only Kentucky’s ‘Cats emerged victorious. That moves them ahead of Villanova for a No. 1 spot.

The other noteworthy change among top seeds is Wake Forest’s departure from the top four seeds. The Demon Deacons suffered a blowout loss at North Carolina State, a team outside the RPI top 100. The Demon Deacons still have a solid RPI at No. 21 and have played the 24th toughest schedule. But they have only win against the RPI top 25, against No. 19 Xavier.

Ohio State steps into the No. 4 seed vacated by the Demon Deacons on the strength of Sunday’s win at Michigan State, the team’s fourth win against the RPI top 25. The Buckeyes now possess road wins against three of the Big Ten’s best: Purdue, Michigan State and Illinois. Wisconsin got past the Buckeyes while Evan Turner was hurt, but Ohio State got revenge in Columbus with a 60-51 win. Ohio State’s resurgence in Big Ten play compensates for a non-conference run devoid of big wins, with the best victories coming against Florida State and California.

At the other end of the brackets, here are the noteworthy changes on the bubble:

• Charlotte drops out of the field and is the first team out.
• Saint Mary’s move into the field.
• Connecticut and Florida are much closer to the field than they were three days ago.
• Cincinnati and William & Mary are one bad loss away from being on the wrong side of the bubble.

Take a look at the Mock Tournament 2.0 brackets. Any better than the first attempt? Let us know by leaving a comment.

Bracket Breakdown: You Be the Judge

The selection committee has the unenviable task of parsing razor-thin differences among a dozen or more teams that are competing for the last invitations to the NCAA Tournament. Take a shot at picking which four teams should make the field from the eight profiles. The teams’ identities are below. And check which teams the Bracket Breakdown predicts to make the field as of Feb. 19 in the Mock Tournament 1.0.

Team A (Overall: 18-7, Conference: 7-4)

• RPI: 34
• Strength of schedule: 40, Non-conference SOS: 21
• Record vs. RPI top 50: 3-5
• Losses to teams outside RPI top 100: 1
• Record in neutral/road games: 4-7
• Conference’s RPI: 6
• Best wins (teams listed by RPI):  vs. 24, vs. 27 (neutral court), vs. 41, vs. 51
• Worst losses (teams listed by RPI): at 194, at 85

Team B (Overall: 18-8, Conference: 7-4)

• RPI: 61
• Strength of schedule: 77, Non-conference SOS: 168
• Record vs. RPI top 50: 2-6
• Losses to teams outside RPI top 100: 1
• Record in neutral/road games: 6-5
• Conference’s RPI: 4
• Best wins (teams listed by RPI):  vs. 22 (neutral court), vs. 39, vs. 63
• Worst losses (teams listed by RPI: vs. 218, at 76

Team C (Overall: 17-9, Conference: 7-7)

• RPI: 62
• Strength of schedule: 42, Non-conference SOS: 2391
• Record vs. RPI top 50: 2-3
• Losses to teams outside RPI top 100: 2
• Record in neutral/road games: 1-7
• Conference’s RPI: 8
• Best wins (teams listed by RPI): vs. 16, vs. 26, at 89
• Worst losses (teams listed by RPI: vs. 175, at 119

Team D (Overall: 18-8, Conference: 6-5)

• RPI: 63
• Strength of schedule: 111, Non-conference SOS: 238
• Record vs. RPI top 50: 1-3
• Losses to teams outside RPI top 100: 3
• Record in neutral/road games: 6-6
• Conference’s RPI: 4
• Best wins (teams listed by RPI):  vs. 41 (neutral court), twice vs. and at 54
• Worst losses (teams listed by RPI: at 165, vs. 141, at 114, at 93

Team E (Overall: 19-7, Conference: 7-5)

• RPI: 44
• Strength of schedule: 68, Non-conference SOS: 190
• Record vs. RPI top 50: 4-4
• Losses to teams outside RPI top 100: 2
• Record in neutral/road games: 9-3
• Conference’s RPI: 7
• Best wins (teams listed by RPI):  at 9, vs. 19, vs. 30, vs. 37
• Worst losses (teams listed by RPI): twice vs. and at 147, vs. 72 (neutral court)

Team F (Overall: 17-9, Conference: 9-4)

• RPI: 71
• Strength of schedule: 80, Non-conference SOS: 135
• Record vs. RPI top 50: 4-5
• Losses to teams outside RPI top 100: 2
• Record in neutral/road games: 5-6
• Conference’s RPI: 5
• Best wins (teams listed by RPI):  vs. 12, at 20, vs. 22, at 36
• Worst losses (teams listed by RPI): vs. 147 (neutral court), vs. 116 (neutral court), at 92, at 91

Team G (Overall: 21-4, Conference: 8-3)

• RPI: 45
• Strength of schedule: 186, Non-conference SOS: 342
• Record vs. RPI top 50: 2-2
• Losses to teams outside RPI top 100: 0
• Record in neutral/road games: 7-4
• Conference’s RPI: 3
• Best wins (teams listed by RPI):  vs. 15, vs. 36, vs. 52 (neutral court)
• Worst losses (teams listed by RPI): at 83, at 81

Team H (Overall: 17-8, Conference: 5-6)

• RPI: 54
• Strength of schedule: 59, Non-conference SOS: 133
• Record vs. RPI top 50: 1-5
• Losses to teams outside RPI top 100: 1
• Record in neutral/road games: 6-5
• Conference’s RPI: 4
• Best wins (teams listed by RPI):
• Worst losses (teams listed by RPI: vs. 114, twice vs. and at 63

The results are:

Team A: Dayton

Team B: Florida

Team C: Washington

Team D: Mississippi State

Team E: UNLV

Team F: Illinois

Team G: Virginia Tech

Team H: Mississippi

Bracket Breakdown: Mock Tournament 1.0

Only 22 days remain until Selection Sunday, the Christmahannukwanzakah of March for college basketball fans. The bracket projections turn to reality shortly after 6 p.m. EST March 14. In the days following Selection Sunday, office productivity creaks to a halt as bracket brainiacs nationwide crunch the numbers in search of the perfect picks.

With about three weeks to go before Selection Sunday, the Bracket Breakdown’s initial outlook foresees a remarkably stable group of teams competing for the 34 at-large bids. The top 36 teams all appear to be safe picks as participants in the Big Dance. That makes the last eight in the field — plus Virginia Tech for good measure — as the only teams that the Bracket Breakdown considers in danger of a collapse. Of course, those teams will start to sweat if they go on losing streaks to end the regular season. And as usual, conference tournaments can wreak havoc when teams like Butler and Northern Iowa allow a second team to represent the Horizon League or Missouri Valley Conference, respectively, which smell like one-bid conferences right now.

During the next few weeks, Bracket Breakdown will publish mock brackets on Mondays and Fridays until Championship Week, when the frequency will increase as the field crystalizes. From the emergence of the Atlantic 10 as one of the top conferences to the invitation of William & Mary for the first time in the Tribe’s 104-year history, here is Mock  Tournament 1.0. Take a look, and submit a comment if you think we’re off base. Of course, if you agree with our projects, feel free to comment about that, too!