March to Madness 1.0

Well, it’s that time of year again.

We unveil our first NCAA Tournament projections now that nearly every team is approaching the midpoint of conference play. We’ve got a big enough sample of games to evaluate teams across conferences in an attempt to find the 68 teams that are most deserving of a bid to the Big Dance.

As usual, it’s not easy to parse the minute differences in many cases. The selection committee faces a tough task every season. Although they’ll never make everyone happy, the committee always delivers a final product that produces thrills and drama for nearly a month in late March and early April. Team A might feel shafted, but Team B might turn into VCU and write a Cinderella story for the ages. … Continue Reading

The 2011 National Championships: A Tempo-Free Evaluation

They are in the books.  Both men’s and women’s championships are settled, with UConn and Texas A & M the respective champions. The quantity of complaints regarding the “ugliness” of the men’s game was probably matched by praise of the competitiveness and higher quality of the final game product by the women. Here, we take a look at the pace and efficiency of both contests:

On Monday UConn defeated Butler 53-41.

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For Once, College Basketball is Wide Open

Raise your hand if you figured either Connecticut or Butler would be playing for the national championship before the season began.

No hands? No one saw this coming?

It’s not that surprising, really. And it fits the way this season has gone and how many saw the season as it evolved, which is something college basketball fans should be happy about. That is especially true for those who are simply fans of the game.

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Final Four Teams All Overcame Adversity

Adversity is part of life. Sports are no different, as no team ever goes through a season without adversity of some sort. Some teams and players go through more than others, but it’s all part of competing. This year’s Final Four teams are all studies in exactly that, because each has had to overcome adversity along the way.

VCU had more than its fair share of adversity, some of which wasn’t expected. This is a team picked third in the Colonial Athletic Association before the season, with some picking them second. The non-conference slate went reasonably well, but had some missed opportunities. It included blowing a lead at UAB right before Christmas, then a couple of wins right before CAA play that left head coach Shaka Smart concerned about leadership – not exactly what one would expect of a senior-laden team. Joey Rodriguez remembered going home after the UAB game, namely that it felt like an even longer drive (he drove from Birmingham to his home in Florida) because it was a missed opportunity.

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Newark Regional Notes: Kentucky Advances to Final Four

NEWARK, N.J. – Kentucky is Final Four bound. The Newark Regional started off slow but gave us two outstanding contests to cap off a wild weekend. A tempo free look at the games, beginning with the final.

Kentucky 76, North Carolina 69

Possessions:

Kentucky 69

North Carolina 71

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Bracket Breakdown: 16 Questions for 16 Games

With the first and second rounds of the NCAA Tournament in the books, we’re moving into the third round. By the end of Sunday, we’ll know which teams will form this year’s Sweet 16, and there promises to be a few surprises. Let’s take a look at 16 questions for the third round of action. … Continue Reading

Expansion Wouldn’t Spoil the Tournament — Yet

Thank goodness.

After weeks of speculation, which bordered on becoming an assumption, that the NCAA would expand the NCAA Tournament to 96 teams, the Division I Men’s Basketball Committee decided to recommend moving to only 68 teams.

The committee’s proposal goes to the NCAA Board of Directors, which will review it April 29. Considering that the expansion accompanies a new 14-year, $10.8 billion broadcasting deal with CBS and Turner Broadcasting, the board almost certainly will pass the recommendation.

And then tournament purists can breathe a collective sigh of relief — for now.

The broadcasting format appears fairly set, with CBS and Turner Broadcasting splitting the tournament so that every game is available on one of four channels: CBS, TNT, TBS or truTV. However, the number of teams in the tournament could change. The NCAA is proposing the 68-team field for next season and could consider more expansion again next year.

So we might go through more expansion anxiety. But let’s not cross that bridge when we get there.

For next year, we know the field will essentially add three play-in games. We just don’t know which seeds will be up for grabs in those play-in games. There are two likely scenarios.

1. The eight weakest automatic qualifiers will decide the four No. 16 seeds.

2. The eight weakest at-large candidates will decide four No. 12 or 13 seeds.

Each scenario has its advantages and disadvantages.

In Scenario No. 1, the committee won’t have to worry as often about overloading segments of the brackets with teams from one conference. Plus this expansion would feel somewhat natural because we already has a play-in game in which the two weakest automatic qualifiers duel for the last No. 16 seed on the Tuesday before the first round.

However, Scenario No. 1 has some potentially unforeseen drawbacks. First, it punishes some non-power-conference champions that would have earned No. 15 seeds by dropping them into the play-in field. Second, it shifts other automatic qualifiers down the seeding chart. And that could hurt those teams’ chances of pulling off a first-round upset.

For example, Ohio found a way to win the Mid-American Conference championship as a No.-9 seed. The streaking Bobcats received a No. 14 seed in the NCAA Tournament and pulled off one of the biggest shocks of the tournament when they beat No. 3-seed Georgetown. With expansion, Ohio would have been a No. 15 seed.  Match ups will remain important, but it’s likely that teams that are just good enough to beat a No. 3 seed won’t be good enough to beat a No. 2 seed.

In Scenario No. 2, the bottom of the seeding chart remains unchanged. Automatic qualifiers receive their No. 15 or 16 bids as usual. Instead, the last four at-large teams must prove their worth by beating the teams that, in the past, would be the last four out. This scenario seems perfect from a competitive standpoint.

However, the logistics of making this scenario work could be tricky. Depending on which seeds the top non-power-conference champions earn, you could have a mixture of No. 12 and 13 seeds up for grabs in the play-in games. That shouldn’t matter, but it’s not as clean as saying that four play-in games lead to four No. 16 seeds.

In addition, committee members could have a harder time balancing the brackets. In this past tournament, the Big East sent eight teams to the field. If the conference sends two more through expansion, it would have 10 teams, which would make seeding them more challenging.

For as long as the tournament remains 68 teams, Scenario No. 2 is preferable. It would likely pit more nationally recognized, major-conference teams in the play-in games, which would be good for TV ratings. And that scenario wouldn’t punish automatic qualifiers from non-power conferences. Rather than add three more at-large bids, we should guarantee that all automatic qualifiers get to play in the field of 64 and force the weakest bubble teams to prove their merit.

And of course, as soon as the NCAA perfects the 68-team tournament, we’ll probably have to find a way to make 72, 80 or 96 teams work.

Bracket Breakdown: Your Complete Guide to the Final Four

On one side of the bracket that went busted a day into the NCAA Tournament, we have two Cinderella teams hoping that the crystal shoe will fit them at the end. On the other, we have two power-conference juggernauts trying to spoil the folk tale’s happy ending.

It’s not a good vs. evil story. It’s merely the Final Four, and its two No. 5 seeds (injury-riddled Michigan State and Butler) battling each other for one spot in the championship game while the ACC’s and No. 1 seed Duke combats the Big East’s and No. 2 West Virginia for the other. Two feel-good stories vs. two bracket-saving, household names.

It should be fun. Let’s take a look at those Final Four-ers.

Even though it’s a second consecutive Final Four trip for the Spartans (28-8), the state of Michigan should still be pleasantly shocked to find them there. Michigan State has walked on the borderline of survival in every round to reach these instances, having won its four games by an average of 3.25 points. Clutchness and healthy doses of guards Korie Lucious and Durrell Summers have done the trick. They have the Spartans feeling they can go from 2009 runner-ups to 2010 champions despite their major underdog status.

However, when it comes to underdogs, no team barks louder than the Bulldogs of Butler (32-4). Fans are growing either hopeful or tired of hearing about how this team’s run is not unlike that of the Hickory team from the “Hoosiers” movie, the story of a small-town Indiana high school squad that wins the state championship — my apologies if I ruined the movie for anyone.

The similarities are there. Butler is also from Indiana and plays in the mid-major Horizon League. Adding to that, the Bulldogs have pulled their set of upsets to get to the Final Four. They beat their region’s No. 1 and No. 2 seeds — Syracuse and Kansas State, respectively — to get a shot at the title while playing in their home state.

As it’s been the case all tournament long, swingman Gordon Hayward will be key for Butler, not just because of his team-leading scoring but because of his rebounding. The sophomore will need to set a tone on the glass and hope his teammates follow. Michigan State is one of the best rebounding teams in the country, and extra possessions could be the difference. The Spartans, for their part, must take Butler’s playing-at-home spirit out right off the bat. And they shouldn’t rely on their crunch-time skills. Butler, which comes into the game having won 24 consecutive games, has been just as good in those instances this tournament.

Whichever squad remains alive after the underdog-off will have to face a powerhouse in the championship game. Duke (33-5), thought by many to be the most vulnerable No. 1 Tournament seed, is the only No. 1 seed to make it to the Final Four. The “Big Three,” guards Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith and forward Kyle Singler, combine for about 70 percent of the Blue Devils’ total scoring and has carried Duke past every team it was supposed to beat. Now, however, Duke, a team that relies heavily on three-point shooting, will face its biggest offensive test against a lengthy West Virginia (31-6) squad that forced another No. 1 seed, Kentucky, into misfiring on 28-of-32 three-point attempts in their Elite Eight match.

The Mountaineers not only are long and effective zone defenders but also feature one of the most exciting players in the field: forward Da’Sean Butler. Butler hasn’t needed to hit any big shots this post-season as West Virginia hasn’t had any major scares during its run, but Butler is one bad dude when called upon, as proven by his two game-winners in the Big East Tournament. He and forward Devin Ebanks are the Mountaineers’ main offensive weapons.

Smith is the guy for Duke. His ability to break down defenses and create, along with his reliable jump shot, could have West Virginia scrambling out of their zone defense rather early. The Blue Devils are an outstanding shooting team, and the Mountaineers might not have a choice but to play them man-to-man. How West Virginia adjusts to Duke’s shooting ability will be the deciding factor. And it would also help the Mountaineers if they could make a couple of shots. Defense is what’s gotten them this far, but they’re the worst shooting team remaining. West Virginia has shot less than 42 percent in all of their tournament wins.

Because of its underdog of underdogs’ status, Butler is the team that seemingly everyone wants to win it all, especially because the Bulldogs are playing in front of their home crowd. Michigan State will be a tough rival, but these teams are evenly-matched. Meanwhile, on the other side, Duke will need a good shooting day to get past the Mountaineers, who will pray for an average shooting day to help them get back to the championship game for the first time since 1959. It should be fun.

Predictions that will probably be completely wrong: Butler and Duke advance. And Duke wins it all.

Don’t Mess With Perfection

The NCAA Tournament is perfect.

Yeah, I said it. And yes, I recognize my bias as a college basketball writer and unapologetic fan.

But really, how can you argue about the thrills of a single-elimination tournament in which 65 out of 347 teams — 18.7 percent — qualify for the field? Within three weeks and a day after Selection Sunday, a new champion cuts down the nets after winning six consecutive games. To accomplish that feat, the eventual champion must beat a collection of teams that have proven to be among the best throughout the entire season.

But alas, there’s money involved — lots of it. The NCAA is nearly three-quarters through an 11-year, $6 billion contract with CBS. The value of that contract is staggering but justified. NCAA officials suspect that they could net an even bigger contract by adding more teams to the tournament, thus adding another round.

When the NHL lost an entire season to a prolonged strike in 2004, ESPN filled its suddenly open midweek prime time schedule with more college basketball games. Guess what? Fans watched. Now we have Big Monday, Super Tuesday and ACC Wednesday. It’s like a list of bar specials.

However, the only post-season action ESPN gets is the play-in game and NIT. Do you think Disney executives would like a shot at bidding on the rights to televise an extra round of the NCAA Tournament? They might even make a play for all rounds before the Sweet 16, if not the whole kit and kaboodle. Regardless of what offer ESPN execs might be cooking up, the sheer economics of open markets dictates that the NCAA would get an even bigger contract from CBS or Disney if the association opts out of its CBS contract by this summer.

Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delany recently said he thinks the NCAA Tournament will probably expand by next season. Delany is one of the power brokers in Division I college basketball, though he does not sit on any committees that will decide the fate of the NCAA Tournament. And let’s hope that somehow, despite the potential windfall, he’s wrong.

Take a look at how the NCAA Tournament compares to other major sports’ post-seasons.

• MLB: Eight teams out of 30 (26.7 percent) participate in a tournament that lasts four to five weeks.
• NBA: 16 teams out of 30 (53.3 percent) participate in a tournament that lasts eight to nine weeks.
• NCAA Division I football: 68 teams out of 119 (57.1 percent) participate in bowl games. However, there’s no tournament, and computerized calculations determine the national championship game match up.
• NHL: 16 teams out of 30 (53.3 percent) participate in a tournament that lasts eight to nine weeks.
• NFL: 12 teams out of 32 (37.5 percent) participate in a tournament that lasts four weekends in five weeks.

Not surprisingly, the NBA and NHL post-season gauntlet is utterly exhausting — for players and fans. It’s not a good thing if teams limit key players’ minutes throughout the regular season to keep them fresh for the post-season. Likewise, fans struggle to maintain energized through a two month-long playoff run. The NHL and NBA both hovered around 10 million viewers for most of their championship series games. That’s a third less than the numbers the NCAA Tournament and BCS championship tallied. The World Series Game 6 clincher for the Yankees drew 22 million fans — mostly because it’s the Yankees. And of course, the juggernaut that is the Super Bowl set a record this year with 106 million viewers.

The NCAA Tournament championship games regularly draws 17 million to 23 million viewers, making it one of the three most popular championships among major U.S. sports. Would adding another round and stretching it out to four weeks diminish interest? That could easily happen if the effect of expansion is sloppy games played by mediocre teams.

If the NCAA expands the tournament to 96 teams, it almost certainly would need to fold the NIT, which would be stuck with the third- or fourth-best teams from mid-major and minor conferences or cellar dwellers from power conferences. In recent years, the NCAA purchased the NIT to dodge an antitrust lawsuit and has reinvigorated the secondary post-season tournament. But despite the improvements to the NIT, anyone watching this year’s NIT would be hard pressed to argue that those teams belong in the NCAA Tournament. The quality of play is not on the same level as NCAA Tournament games.

In the consumer marketplace, corporations that openly slash quality in favor of a quick profit tend to face an immediate backlash. In the NCAA’s case, the public outcry would be loud and vitriolic. But the NCAA has a monopoly on the post-season. And even if we shout about unworthy teams reaching the supposedly most exclusive post-season tournament, we’ll still watch. And the NCAA executives know that.

Ironically, the only way to show the NCAA executives that expansion is a terrible idea would be to stop watching the regular season and early rounds of the NCAA Tournament if they do opt for 96 teams. If the NCAA feels like it can cash in on the rich value of its product, a collective disinterest in the regular season would tarnish that value. But that would mean we all lose.

Expansion is understandable, especially when the NCAA has an opportunity to unearth a pot of gold in the middle of a recession. And inviting more teams to the Big Dance sounds fair. But it’s a short-sighted strategy with potentially serious ramifications that would undermine the value of the product that NCAA executives are so proud of in the first place.

The NCAA Tournament isn’t broken. Stop trying to fix it.

Bracket Breakdown: Pac-10, Mid-Majors Show the Big East the Door

It all started with some kid from a Kentucky school not named Kentucky stunning the college basketball world with an odds-defying, game-winning jumper at the buzzer. Thanks to forward Danero Thomas, 13th-seeded Murray State shocked No. 4-seed Vanderbilt, 66-65, in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last Thursday.

Racers’ fans went into a frenzy. Many people who had never even heard of the school before celebrated the feel-good upset just because of its own strange nature. Even more people, however, kicked at the ground and muttered curse words because the unexpected result shook up their brackets.

That was just the beginning. Perhaps inspired by the Racers’ Day 1 shocker, a No. 12 seed, Cornell, decided it would ride hot-shooting all the way into the Sweet 16, a similar case to that of No. 10 St. Mary’s, which unleashed its beast of a center, 6-11 Omar Samhan, in the South Region and knocked out second-seeded Villanova to also join the field of 16.

And after No. 9 Northern Iowa’s Ali Farokhmanesh made the most cold-blooded crunch-time 3-pointer in recent tournament memory to cement his team’s Sweet 16 ticket while taking down overall-top-seeded Kansas on Saturday, it was official that at least 90 percent of the country’s brackets had gone more busted than a piñata on Cinco de Mayo.

Putting aside the almighty custom of wagering on tournament predictions, however, March Madness has been splendid so far. Down-to-the-wire games have been numerous, as have been upsets. High seeds Kansas, Villanova, Georgetown, Vanderbilt, Wisconsin and Temple all got axed, but their executioners gave the competition parity and diversity. Entering the Sweet 16, 11 conferences will be represented.

Out of all surprise teams, Cornell has been the most pleasant one. The Big Red’s wins made it the first Ivy League team to make it this far in more than 30 years, and it did so with authority. Cornell smacked around No. 5 Temple in the first round and then did the same to No. 4 Wisconsin in the second while shooting a combined 58.6 percent in the games.

Even better than that, though, has been the performance of St. Mary’s Samhan, who has totaled 61 points through two games while making 24 of 32 field goal attempts. His supremacy has been the reason the Gaels are enjoying the best season in their history while Villanova is already home, lamenting its collapse.

Speaking of failure, that’s been the theme of the postseason for Nova’s conference. The Big East, widely regarded as the best league in college basketball, had a tournament-best eight entrants, but half were done by the end of the first round, and two more followed soon after in the second. Only No. 1-seed Syracuse in the West Region and No. 2-seed West Virginia in the East remain.

First-round meat: No. 6 Marquette, which blew a 15-point lead in the second half and lost to an out-to-prove-the-Pac-10-is-not-that-weak No. 11-seed Washington; No. 3-seed Georgetown, which was blasted by Ohio, a team that had a losing record in the MAC and got into the Dance only after winning its conference’s tournament; Notre Dame, which was zoned out of the tournament by No. 11-seed Old Dominion; and No. 9-seed Louisville, which also got embarrassed by the Pac-10, by Cal.

No. 3-seed Pittsburgh made the second round, but the Panthers couldn’t hang with No. 6-seed Xavier on Sunday and were ousted.

With so many high seeds gone so early, thanks in big part to the Big East, it’d clearly be silly to count any team out. In the East, No. 1-seed Kentucky will have the challenge to cool down the Big Red’s red-hot shooting, and West Virginia will have to remain impressive to get past an also-remarkable Washington. In the South, No. 1-seed Duke, which has made quick work of its rivals so far, will face a Purdue team missing Robbie Hummel, and No. 3-seed Baylor will deal with Samhan, St. Mary’s scary big man.

In the Midwest, Cinderella Northern Iowa will face No. 5-seed Michigan State, ecstatic after its buzzer-beating win over Maryland Sunday, and No. 2-seed Ohio State, the favorite to win the section now that Kansas is gone, will take on No. 6-seed Tennessee. In the West, No. 5-seed Butler, which got a scare from Murray State before advancing via a 54-52 win Saturday, will meet with Syracuse. The winner will play the winner of the Kansas State-Xavier game.

Predictions? We’re not too big on them these days, but the solid candidates to advance are Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke, West Virginia and Ohio State. These teams have been imposing through their first two games. They’re as dependable picks as Kansas was before Saturday.

Bracket Breakdown: Kansas’ Upset Follows Scary Trend for Jayhawk Fans

Kansas was supposed to cruise to its second title in three years. On paper, the Jayhawks had everything a team was supposed to need to make a long, triumphant run to the final game in April.

A seasoned point guard with plenty of NCAA Tournament experience, including one national championship already? Check.

A tough-minded beast in the post with NBA-caliber talent? Check.

A few athletic swingmen who cause match up problems against smaller guards? Check.

A great statistical profile that included an offense and defense ranked in the top 10 in efficiency? Check.

A veteran coach who knows how to win big games? Um, we might need to leave that box blank.

Since coach Bill Self arrived in Lawrence in 2003, the Jayhawks have reached the NCAA Tournament every season. In 2008, Self guided Kansas to its first championship in 20 years by upsetting the top overall seed, North Carolina, and then beating Memphis in a thriller. The media eagerly added Self to the pantheon of the greatest coaches in the game today.

But perhaps we all embraced Self’s success a little too hastily.

Besides 2008, what has Kansas accomplished under Self? If Saturday’s loss to Northern Iowa stunned you, I recommend that you sit down for this one.

If you don’t count the championship season, Kansas has won exactly one NCAA Tournament game against a team seeded better than No. 8. One! That doesn’t seem possible, especially for a team that has been seeded No. 4 or better in every one of those NCAA Tournaments. For crying out loud, Cornell and St. Mary’s have topped that total this season alone!

Let’s run down the recent NCAA Tournament history of the Self-made Kansas Jayhawks.

• 2004: In Self’s first season with the Jayhawks, the team earned a No. 4 seed and beat No. 13 Illinois-Chicago, No. 12 Pacific and No. 8 UAB before losing to No. 3 Georgia Tech in the Elite Eight.
• 2005: With high expectations as a No. 3 seed, Kansas flamed out in the first round against No. 14 Bucknell.
• 2006: Kansas fared no better the next season as a No. 4 seed, losing to No. 13 Bradley in the first round.
• 2007: As a No. 1 seed, Kansas made its second-deepest run under Self, beating No. 16 Portland State, No. 8 Kentucky and No. 4 Southern Illinois before losing to No. 2 UCLA.
• 2008: The Jayhawks earned a No. 1 seed and won the national championship by taking out No. 16 Niagara, No. 8 UNLV, No. 12 Villanova, No. 10 Davidson, No. 1 North Carolina and No. 1 Memphis.
• 2009: After winning the championship, the reloaded Jayhawks got a No. 3 seed and beat No. 14 North Dakota State and No. 11 Dayton before losing to No. 2 Michigan State.
• 2010: Expected to win their second national championship in three seasons, the Jayhawks became the first No. 1 seed to lose in this year’s tournament when No. 9 Northern Iowa knocked them off.

In three of seven tournaments, Kansas has been victimized by teams seeded eight, nine and 11 seeds worse than the Jayhawks’. Those all count as major upsets. In 2004 and 2009, the Jayhawks were the beneficiaries of other upsets and beat three teams seeded No. 8 or worse in the second round and Sweet 16 before eventually losing to the first better seed they played.

In 2007, Kansas made its best run outside the championship season as the Jayhawks beat the hardest possible team, based on seed, in each round before losing to UCLA, and there’s no shame in losing to a No. 2 seed in the Elite Eight.

But even Kansas’ run to the national championship in 2008 is littered with lucky breaks. The Jayhawks drew overmatched No. 12 Villanova in the Sweet 16 and exhausted No. 10 Davidson in the Elite Eight. If Stephen Curry hadn’t simply run out of steam with five minutes to go, the Wildcats might have pulled off yet another major upset of Self’s Jayhawks.

In the 2008 Final Four, Kansas played the single best NCAA Tournament game of the Bill Self era when the Jayhawks crushed North Carolina with a huge first half. The Jayhawks used a 31-6 to squash North Carolina’s hopes by midway through the first half. However, even with a 28-point lead, Kansas tried to give away the game as the Tar Heels rallied to cut that huge deficit to four points. They ran out of gas — a la Curry in the Elite Eight — and Kansas held on for an 84-66 victory.

In the championship game, Kansas was the team delivering an epic rally. When Memphis’ Robert Dozier hit two free throws with just more than two minutes remaining, the Tigers has a nine-point cushion and appeared set to win the championship. But Memphis missed 4-of-5 free throws in the final 75 seconds — perhaps bad karma derived from Derrick Rose’s academic machinations in high school — setting the stage for Mario Chalmers’ miraculous game-tying three-pointer in the waning seconds. Kansas carried the momentum through overtime and surged to a 75-68 championship game victory.

There’s no doubt that Self is a good coach. He is an excellent recruiter, and his teams statistically play great defense and efficient offense. However, his NCAA Tournament résumé is far from proven, and it’s way too early to label him a great coach as long as the Jayhawks have twice as many NCAA Tournament losses (six) than wins against teams seeded better than No. 8 (three).

Bracket Breakdown: How the SEC Will Fare

The biggest difference between this season and last season in the SEC is the arrival of coach John Calipari at Kentucky. Coach Cal has the Wildcats positioned among the elite teams in the country thanks to one of the best recruiting classes in the past decade. Kentucky will now roll the dice with a bunch of freshmen who have no postseason experience but all the talent needed to make a run.

Besides the Wildcats, the three other tournament teams look vulnerable to first-round knockouts. Here is a preview of the SEC’s NCAA Tournament representatives.

Kentucky Wildcats (Overall: 32-2, SEC: 14-2)

No. 1 seed, East Region

When John Calipari bolted from Memphis to Lexington after last season, Kentucky faithful knew they had a proven winner who could lead the Wildcats back to the basketball’s elite. But even the most optimistic fans must be surprised by the immediate success Calipari has enjoyed with one of the youngest but most talented teams in the country. Super-frosh John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins delivered the Wildcats a No. 1 seed in the East Region and have the team poised to make its deepest tournament run since 2005.

However, the Wildcats will need its freshmen to play like veterans, even though no one on this team has played in an NCAA Tournament game. Their lack of big-game experience would seem to bode poorly for the Wildcats’ Final Four chances. However, the team’s balanced offense and defense should easily carry Kentucky to the Sweet 16. Getting any further will be a major challenge, though.

Kentucky’s weaknesses are three-point shooting, occasional sloppiness on offense and downright bad free throw shooting. Either No. 4-seed Wisconsin or No. 5-seed Temple has the defensive fortitude necessary to slow down the Wildcat’s uber-athletic lineup. They also play a painfully slow pace, which will encourage Wall to try to force plays. Wisconsin and Temple are great at getting back on defense, so the Wildcats won’t have many opportunities in transition. And the Owls and Badgers are among the top teams in defensive field goal percentage. That spells trouble for Kentucky.

Look for Wall and company to make some noise with spectacular plays throughout three games before falling to a more veteran and controlled Wisconsin squad.

Vanderbilt Commodores (Overall: 24-8, SEC: 12-4)

No. 4 seed, West Region

Vanderbilt has had another strong season, entering the NCAA Tournament with 24 wins. After seemingly being on the hot seat each year, coach Kevin Stallings has established the Commodores, the No. 4 seed in the West Region, as a perennial SEC contender. That’s impressive in a conference that contains the likes of Kentucky, Florida and LSU.

This season, the Commodores have a squad that can beat great teams or lose to mediocre ones. Vanderbilt needs to be ready to play in San Jose against No. 13-seed Murray State, which has a balanced, experienced lineup. Unlike past seasons, Vanderbilt does not get a high percentage of its points from three-point territory, preferring to work the offense through Aussie big man A.J. Ogilvy. However, the Racers are No. 4 in the nation in field goal percentage inside the arc. If Vanderbilt cannot get good looks inside the three-point line, the Commodores will struggle.

Six of Vanderbilt’s wins this seasons were decided by five points or less. Although it’s good that the Commodores know how to win close games, they might have benefited from a statistical anomaly. Vanderbilt’s opponents shoot an absolutely putrid 63.5 percent from the free throw line. How many points did those opponents leave at the line? Would Vanderbilt even be in the tournament if they had lost four of those six games and had 12 losses? The deciding factor in a major first-round upset will be the Racers’ 70.3 percent shooting from the line, including the performances of three players who log at least 50 percent of the team’s minutes and shoot at least 77 percent from the line.

Tennessee Volunteers (Overall: 25-8, SEC: 11-5)

No. 6 seed, Midwest Region

When we last saw Tennessee, the Volunteers were getting stomped by Kentucky, 74-45, in the SEC Tournament. Will that loss portend a short NCAA Tournament trip, or will coach Bruce Pearl rally the troops, starting against No. 11-seed San Diego State? Tennessee has the defense necessary to bounce back but the offensive inconsistency to lose ugly again.

Tennessee’s defense ranks No. 8 in defense efficiency, mostly on the strength of great three-point defense. Opponents shoot only 29.3 percent from long range. However, that might not matter against San Diego State, which focuses more on the inside game than perimeter. Neither team looks strong, and the Volunteers should find a way to win before losing to No. 3-seed Georgetown in the second round.

Florida Gators (Overall: 21-12, SEC: 9-7)

No. 10 seed, West Region

Several spurned teams, now in the NIT, probably take issues with Florida’s inclusion in the NCAA Tournament. The Gators will try to justify their bid against No. 7-seed BYU, but they won’t have much success. The Cougars have offensive and defensive advantages, while the Gators don’t excel at anything. They are an all-around solid club, as evidenced by wins against Tennessee and Michigan State. But Florida lacks consistency and generally loses to better teams. Look for that trend to continue as the weakest SEC team in the tournament bows out without much fanfare.

Bracket Breakdown: How the Mountain West Will Fare

The Mountain West Conference demonstrated that it’s a league on the rise as it doubled its number of NCAA Tournament participants from two in 2009 to four this year. But are they ready to dance with the likes of the Big East and SEC?

New Mexico Lobos (29-4, 14-2 MWC)

No. 3 seed, East Region

Regardless of what goes on in the tournament, this will be regarded as the best season in New Mexico’s history. The Lobos won a school-record 29 games — and counting — and claimed the MWC regular-season championship. The only sour note of the year so far was struck by San Diego State, which handed the Lobos half of their losses this season, including one in the tournament semifinals Friday.

The recompense to the Lobos’ exceptional season is a No. 3 seed in the East Region and a game against a I-still-can-not-believe-I-am-here Montana, a team that booked its NCAA Tournament ticket by rallying from 22 points down to win the Big Sky Tournament championship. New Mexico will handle those cats easily and advance to the second round, where Marquette will be waiting.

And although Marquette is a No. 6 seed, this will be where the dream season will come to an end for the Lobos. The Golden Eagles, a Big East team, have been tried repeatedly this season, while New Mexico, part of a far-more-modest conference, has not. It will be close, but Marquette will prevail. Still, the Lobos will go home having won 30 games, an incredible feat.

Brigham Young Cougars (29-5, 13-3)

No. 7 seed, West Region

The Cougars would be considered the best team in this conference hands down if it wasn’t for the simple fact that New Mexico, the actual best team in the MWC, swept them this season. Otherwise, BYU was almost flawless in a season that saw them win a school-record 29 times.

Getting it done both offensively and defensively is what drove the Cougars to this season of distinction. BYU is the second-highest scoring team in the nation at 83.0 points per game. But in the midst of their high-octane offense, they still find time to play defense. The Cougars hold their opposition to 65.2 points per game. That’s a point differential of 17.8 points.

That dangerous combo — along with the brilliance of guard Jimmer Fredette — will make BYU, a No. 7 seed in the West Region, a threat to any team regardless of record or pedigree. The Cougars will make quick work of undeserving No. 10 Florida in the first round and then give Kansas State fits in the second. But the Wildcats and their guard duo of Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente will put an end to the dream season. BYU will also have to say bye-bye in the second round, having won 30 games.

San Diego State Aztecs (25-8, 11-5)

No. 11 seed, Midwest Region

After a 2008-09 season in which they felt snubbed out of the NCAA Tournament, the Aztecs made sure there wouldn’t be a chance for a repeat this season by winning the MWC Tournament title.

San Diego State barely escaped Colorado State in the tournament’s quarterfinals but was more convincing in the semifinals, defeating New Mexico, and the championship game, downing UNLV. That tournament title awarded them a No. 11 seed in the Midwest Region and a first-round meeting with No. 6 Tennessee.

But will the confidence of a tournament championship and a chip on their shoulder from the 2009 snub be enough to push the Aztecs past a team that’s beaten both No. 1 Kansas and No. 2 Kentucky this season? Likely not. The Volunteers happened to have lost their last game in shameful fashion, 74-45 to Kentucky in the SEC Tournament semifinals Saturday, and they will not overlook the Aztecs in the first round. San Diego State will not be able to surprise Tennessee and will be one-and-out after a great season.

UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (25-8, 11-5)

No. 9 seed, Midwest Region

On paper, the Rebels have an almost identical NCAA Tournament résumé to that of San Diego State. The only difference for UNLV lies in its 55-45 loss to the Aztecs in the MWC Tournament championship game Saturday. They’re even in the same region, the Midwest.

Despite the tourney loss, UNLV was granted a higher seed over the Aztecs, a No. 8. That’s not necessarily going to help the Rebels stick around any longer than the champs, though. They’ll have to play a No. 9 Northern Iowa that has only lost four games all season long and has an edge on experience. The Panthers bring pretty much their whole team back from last year’s NCAA Tournament run, and, unfortunately for the Rebels, that will doom them and give them yet another likeness to San Diego State: a season-ending first-round loss.

Bracket Breakdown: How the Pac-10 Will Fare

The good ol’ days are gone for the Pacific 10 Conference as the league has suffered a plummet in skill level this season that’s gotten them from having six participants in the NCAA Tournament last year to only two in this one: Cal, the regular-season champion, and Washington, the conference tournament champion.

California Golden Bears (23-10, 13-5)

No. 8 seed, South Region

It took 50 years for the Pac-10 to be weak enough for Cal to win a regular-season championship, but it finally happened. Behind the conference Player of the Year, guard Jerome Randle, who averages 18.7 points per game, the Bears are undoubtedly the Pac-10’s cream of the crop. Their reward for being the best of definitely-not-the-best is a game against the South Region’s No. 9 seed, Louisville (20-12, 11-7 Big East).

California knows how to party, and that’s what the eighth-seeded Bears were doing up until running into Washington in the conference tournament final. Winners of nine of its last 10 games coming into the match up against the Huskies, Cal missed on its chance at a first-ever tournament championship in great part due to Randle being in foul trouble. Washington, using surges while Randle was on the bench, won 79-75.

Even with the disappointment of being unable to complete the championship combo, Cal is playing decent enough to give itself a chance against the Cardinals. But this season, in a battle between the Pac-10’s best and the Big East’s sixth-best, one must go with the guys in the proven conference. The Bears will roar loudly at Louisville, but it’s the Cardinals who’ll fly away with the win in crunch time.

Washington Huskies (24-9, 11-7)

There’s two sides to every story, and the Huskies’ side says they would have beaten Cal even if Randle had played all 40 minutes of the tournament final. That may very well be, seeing how Washington had won six games in a row before facing the Bears.

The duo of forward Quincy Pondexter and guard Isaiah Thomas was the Pac-10’s best this season. Thanks to their combined 37 points per game, Washington, seeded No. 11 in the East Region, reached a national-No. 10 ranking at a point. That was before drinking some reality tea and hitting a five-losses-in-seven-games’ stretch. Since, however, the Huskies have been much more respectable, winning 12 of 14 and going from bubble team to the Pac-10’s rightful NCAA Tournament delegate.

On a roll or not, though, Washington will have the same fate as that of its conference comrade, Cal: a first-round loss to a Big Easter, a much-more-tested No. 6 Marquette (22-11, 11-7 Big East). The Pac-10 was just too frail this season, and the NCAA Tournament’s second round is for the big boys.

Better luck next year, Pac-10.

Bracket Breakdown: How the Big East Will Fare

The Big East has eight teams in the NCAA Tournament, five of which are seeded No. 3 or better. That means the conference faces high expectations. However, if the regular season taught us nothing else, teams’ post-season success will depend entirely on match ups. For some of the Big East teams, the match ups don’t look favorable for a Final Four run. For others, winning any games might be a challenge.

Syracuse Orange (Overall: 28-4, Big East: 15-3)

No. 1 seed, West Region

The Orange enter the NCAA Tournament as a favorite to contend for the national championship. But they will need to overcome some adversity to work their way through the West Region, even though they are a No. 1 seed. Syracuse will play at least the first weekend without senior Arinze Onuaku, who injured a quad in the Orange’s Big East Tournament loss to Georgetown. The Orange primarily use a seven-man rotation, so the loss of Onuaku makes them dangerously thin against No. 16 Vermont and either No. 8 Gonzaga or No. 9 Florida State.

Despite Onuaku’s loss, Syracuse should be able to get through the first weekend of action, though likely with more difficulty than originally anticipated. Syracuse’s offense will continue to roll along as one of the most efficient offenses in the country, according to Ken Pomeroy’s statistics. Guards Wes Johnson and Andy Rautins fuel the No. 9 offense in the country. Both are tall guards — at 6-7, Johnson is more of a swingman — and present match up problems for opponents. They each shoot better than 39 percent from three-point range and combine to average 27.7 points per game.

However, Syracuse is not unbeatable, as Louisville proved twice this season. The Orange give up a lot of offensive rebounds because they play the 2-3 zone nearly exclusively. That scheme makes it more difficult to box out opponents. And offensively, Syracuse has a bad habit of turning the ball over.

Syracuse won’t meet a team until at least the Sweet 16 that can take advantage of those weaknesses. And that team is No. 13-seed Murray State, which would be overmatched offensively. However, if Onuaku remains out and the Racers find a way to get past No. 4-seed Vanderbilt and Butler/UTEP, Murray State has an excellent chance to shock the Orange.

Most likely, Syracuse will reach the Elite Eight, where the Orange’s run through the tournament will come to an abrupt halt. Three likely opponents — No. 2-seed Kansas State, No. 3-seed Pittsburgh and No. 7-seed BYU — all have the type of profile that would give the Orange fits.

Kansas State can rebound well and plays a fast-paced, intense game that would prevent Syracuse from stalling the Wildcats’ offense. Pittsburgh already has one win against the Orange this season. And BYU shoots 43 percent from three-point range and plays at one of the fastest paces in the country. The Cougars will try to beat Syracuse’s defense down the floor to prevent the Orange from setting up the 2-3 zone. And if they have to play in the half court, the Cougars can shoot over the zone.

West Virginia Mountaineers (Overall: 27-6, Big East 13-5)

No. 2 seed, East Region

The Mountaineers are one of the trendy picks to reach the Final Four as a No. 2 seed. And why not? West Virginia has five wins against teams seeded No. 1-3. The Mountaineers already have proven that they can beat anybody.

The key to West Virginia’s success is methodical offense, stout defense and better effort than their opponents’. A trio of players averages at least 11 points and six rebounds per game, led by senior Da’Sean Butler’s 17.4 points and 6.3 rebounds per game. Butler proved in the Big East Tournament that he is a clutch player who can hit game-winning shots when needed. And West Virginia might need those services once or twice if West Virginia wants to reach the Final Four.

West Virginia’s weakness is flat-out ugly shooting. The Mountaineers shoot 48.8 percent from inside the arc, 33.6 percent from three-point range, and 69.6 percent from the free throw line. And West Virginia’s defense allows opponents to put up nearly identical numbers. The difference is that West Virginia is second-best in the country at collecting offensive rebounds, and the Mountaineers are among the top third in grabbing defensive rebounds. All of West Virginia’s starters are at least 6-7, except point guard Darryl “Truck” Bryant.

West Virginia should have no troubles against its first two opponents. In the Sweet 16, No. 3-seed New Mexico could present problems. The Lobos are No. 5 in the country at gathering defensive rebounds, and they shoot well from three-point range. New Mexico also doesn’t commit turnovers. If West Virginia faces New Mexico, they’ll lose. But the Mountaineers look like they might catch a break thanks to a tough second-round draw for the Lobos, and West Virginia should make it to the Elite Eight.

In the Elite Eight, West Virginia will either step up its offensive game or lose to No. 4-seed Wisconsin, which has the talent and offensive skills to get past tough defenses like Temple and Kentucky. The Badgers play as slow as West Virginia does and are more efficient on offense. That spells trouble for a team that doesn’t shoot well. Because Wisconsin isn’t concerned about setting up fast breaks, the entire team crashes the boards, which would neutralize West Virginia’s strength. Somewhat counterintuitively, the Mountaineers want the top seed, Kentucky, to reach the Elite Eight because that would present a much easier match up. But it’s not going to happen.

Villanova Wildcats (Overall: 24-7, Big East: 13-5)

No. 2 seed, South Region

Villanova is in trouble. The No. 2 seed in the South Region started the season 20-1 before losing six of its final 10 games. Three of the four wins came against teams that aren’t playing in the NCAA Tournament. Opponents started to figure out that the Wildcats’ defense is vulnerable to attacking offenses. Villanova is one of the most foul-prone teams in the tournament.

Villanova’s defensive liability will likely rear its head sooner rather than later because No. 7-seed Richmond and No. 10-seed Saint Mary’s will have match up advantages that will lead to an upset. The Wildcats have one of the most efficient offenses in the country, which will keep them in the game. And senior Scottie Reynolds is one of the most clutch players in the country, shooting better than 54 percent from the field and 39 percent from three-point range. But Richmond and Saint Mary’s have the height to frustrate Villanova’s outside shooters. And both teams shoot free throws well, which will likely be the deciding factor in a major second-round upset.

Pittsburgh Panthers (Overall: 24-8, Big East: 13-5)

No. 3 seed, West Region

For the Panthers, the West Region’s No. 3 seed, success will come slowly — literally. The Panthers average only 62 possessions per game, one of the slowest tempos in the country. After bleeding some of the clock, the Panthers are usually efficient on offense, even though they don’t shoot particularly well inside or outside the arc.

The team’s most critical player is sophomore Ashton Gibbs, who leads the team with 15.8 points per game. He is the team’s lone three-point threat, and he makes 40.2 percent of his three-point attempts. Joining Gibbs in the backcourt, Jermaine Dixon and Brad Wannamaker are a pair of seasoned guards who can help Pitt control the pace.

To beat Pittsburgh, an opponent needs to put pressure on a sometimes stagnant offense, force a faster tempo, deny second-chance points by grabbing rebounds, and play solid interior defense. That’s a lot to ask of an opponent, but the Panthers might face a few teams that meet that profile, starting with No. 6-seed Xavier in the second round. The Panthers find a way past the Musketeers before falling to No. 2-seed Kansas State or No. 7-seed BYU in the Sweet 16.

Georgetown Hoyas (Overall: 23-10, Big East: 10-8)

No. 3 seed, Midwest Region

The Hoyas are one of the more dangerous teams in the tournament, as they proved at Madison Square Garden when they beat Syracuse and Marquette before losing to West Virginia in the Big East championship game. But Georgetown is the No. 3 seed in the Midwest Region. Although the Hoyas have the offense to hang with top-seeded Kansas, they don’t have a good enough defense. And Georgetown turns the ball a little too often to seriously threaten Kansas. Of course, that would assume the Hoyas can get past No. 2-seed Wisconsin.

Georgetown excels at finding good shots, thanks to sophomore center Greg Monroe. The big man looks like a surefire top five lottery pick in this year’s NBA Draft, and Hoya fans hope he can help deliver a deep NCAA Tournament run before moving to the pros. With Monroe as the centerpiece of the offense, Georgetown shoots 54.6 percent inside the arc. Led by newly diagnosed diabetic Austin Freeman, Georgetown’s perimeter players shoot 38.8 percent from three-point range.

Despite the presence of Monroe on defense, the Hoyas aren’t great at stopping opponents. That likely won’t be a problem until Georgetown reaches Ohio State in the Sweet 16. Led by Evan Turner, the Buckeyes have the offensive efficiency needed to hang with Georgetown. And because Ohio State forces a significant number of turnovers, Georgetown’s tournament run will unravel in St. Louis.

Marquette Golden Eagles (Overall: 22-11, Big East 11-7)

No. 6 seed, East Region

It’s hard to tell whether Marquette will win more than a game or two — or any — in the tournament. But it is almost certain that the No. 6 seed in the East Region will be involved in some great finishes.

In four out of five of Marquette’s final regular-season games, the Golden Eagles had to work overtime, winning three of them. The Golden Eagles played 16 games in which the final margin was five points or less. That’s nearly half the team’s games. However, Marquette won only half those tight games.

For the most part, Marquette doesn’t beat itself, committing the fifth-fewest turnovers in the country. With a guard-oriented lineup, the Golden Eagles rely heavily on three-point shooting. But they’re good at it, hitting 40.6 percent from three-point range. As often happens to guard-heavy teams, Marquette struggles to get rebounds.

That could pose an immediate problem against No. 11-seed Washington. The Huskies are hot as winners of seven consecutive games. And they are good at rebounding. Washington crashes the offensive glass, often successfully. In addition, the Huskies don’t commit many turnovers. Washington has a more balanced offensive and defensive attack than Marquette, and if the Huskies can control the pace, they’ll upset Marquette.

Despite a strong season, Marquette will fall to a Washington team that has an experienced starting cast that will dictate the pace.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Overall: 23-11, Big East: 10-8)

No. 6 seed, South Region

Notre Dame stormed through the final weeks of the regular season, much of that without Luke Harangody, to earn an NCAA Tournament bid. Their run impressed the selection committee, which rewarded the Fighting Irish with a No. 6 seed in the South Region. Frankly, that’s too good of a seed for this team, despite victories against Pittsburgh (twice), Georgetown and Marquette in the past three weeks.

Meanwhile, Notre Dame’s first-round opponent, No. 11-seed Old Dominion, is probably better than that seeding. This match up could easily be a No. 8 seed vs. No. 9 seed, which would be considered a toss up. With that in mind, it’s not surprising that Old Dominion has an excellent shot to beat the heavily imbalanced Irish. Notre Dame has the No. 4 offense in efficiency but the No. 140 defense. That defensive ranking has improved since Harangody’s injury and subsequent reduced role. But the team’s offense has also leveled off a little, too.

For its part, Old Dominion has the No. 16 defense and No. 72 offense. That’s not great balance, but it’s better than Notre Dame. Plus Old Dominion has a tall lineup anchored by senior center Gerald Lee, who should cause fits for the Fighting Irish. Old Dominion leads Division I in offensive rebounding, which should continue against Notre Dame. The Irish like to mix a health dose of zone coverage into their defensive sets.

These teams might not combine for 100 points, but look for the Monarchs to end Notre Dame’s impressive late-season surge.

Louisville Cardinals (Overall: 20-12, Big East: 11-7)

No. 9 seed, South Region

Louisville is a more balanced version of its first-round opponent, No. 9-seed California. The Cardinals, who are the No. 8 seed in the South Region, have a fairly efficient offense and a middle-of-the-road defense. In comparison, Cal’s offense is No. 4 in efficiency, but its defense is No. 81. For Louisville to get past California and cause problems for top-seeded Duke, the Cardinals need to channel the energy they played with against Syracuse, which Louisville beat twice this season.

For the Cardinals to take care of California, sophomore Samardo Samuels needs to use his superior size to create a mismatch. Samuels averages 15.3 points and 7.0 rebounds per game for the Cardinals. WIth his size, he can force California to collapse its defense, opening opportunities for Edgar Sosa and Louisville’s outside shooters. That formula delivered huge wins against Syracuse.

The Cardinals will use that game plan to success against Cal, but it won’t be enough against Duke. Although Louisville might frustrate Duke at times, the Blue Devils have too much talent to fall to an inconsistent Louisville team.

Bracket Breakdown: How the ACC Will Fare

The ACC has had a down year. It’s hard to argue that point when only two teams receive seeds better than No. 7 in the NCAA Tournament. And Maryland’s No. 4 seed is probably a little generous. The skeptics think Duke isn’t worthy of a No. 1 seed.

With all that negativity, the ACC enters the NCAA Tournament looking to re-establish its position as one of the top power conferences. Duke has an excellent shot at making that happen as one of the best teams in the country that nobody wants to love. Maryland has an outstanding squad that seemed destined to make some noise in the NCAA Tournament — until the committee placed the Terrapins in Kansas’ region.

The rest of the ACC teams in the tournament play great defense but have suspect offenses. A couple of them have favorable match ups, while a couple others look destined to start the off-season before this weekend. Here’s a complete preview of the ACC’s representatives in the NCAA Tournament.

Duke Blue Devils (Overall: 29-5, ACC: 13-3)

No. 1 seed, South Region

The Blue Devils enter the tournament facing criticism because they received a No. 1 seed instead of West Virginia. The naysayers are further enraged that the selection committee awarded Duke a better No. 1 seed, placing the Blue Devils in the South Region, on the S-curve than Syracuse, which would play its regional semifinal and final games in Salt Lake City. With all this talk about the Blue Devils not being worthy, they have plenty to prove.

But let’s be the Devils’ advocate for a moment. Duke has played like one of the two best teams in the country all season, according to Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency statistics. In fact, based on offensive and defensive efficiency, Duke should be the favorite to win the national championship, not Kansas. Swallow that, critics!

Of course, a team’s performance on the court often contradicts their profile on paper. For Duke to reach the Final Four, the Blue Devils will need to remain ruthlessly efficient on offense. Duke is one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country, anchored by sharp-shooting Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith. Each of those three shoots better than 38 percent from behind the arc and has made at least 49 three-pointers so far. Duke’s offense runs like a well-oiled machine because the team makes the most of its possessions. Duke is one of the best teams at avoiding turnovers and grabbing offensive rebounds.

Defensively, Duke simply makes it hard to score. The Blue Devils force turnovers during more than 20 percent of opponents’ possessions. Teams that don’t turn it over still struggle to score against a defense that allows opponents to only shoot 44.3 percent from inside the arc and 28.2 percent behind it. Duke’s ability to shut down opponents’ long-range shooters is critical to making a deep run in March. Three-pointers can be the great equalizer for seemingly overmatched underdogs. But Duke won’t let someone win that way.

Based on Duke’s draw, the Blue Devils should reach the Final Four. But they will encounter resistance as early as the Sweet 16. No. 5-seed Texas A&M and No. 12-seed Utah State could challenge Duke’s Final Four aspirations in that round. In the Elite Eight, Duke could face No. 3-seed Baylor in Houston in front of a hostile crowd. But the Blue Devils are accustomed to hostile crows at every road game. Look for Duke to reach the championship game before running into the unstoppable force out of Lawrence, Kan. The Jayhawks simply have too many weapons for a shallow Duke team that otherwise matches up favorably against Kansas.

Maryland Terrapins (Overall 23-8, ACC: 13-3)

No. 4 seed, Midwest Region

If Maryland were seeded as a No. 5 or 6 seed in any region outside of Kansas’, the Terrapins would be a trendy pick to wreck some brackets and knock off better seeds. But alas, the Terrapins are a No. 4 seed and would likely face top-seeded in the Sweet 16 of the Midwest Region. Maryland possesses the firepower to hang with Kansas, but the Terrapins don’t have enough defense to pull off what would be one of the biggest upsets of the tournament.

Maryland enters the NCAA Tournament with the No. 6 most efficient offense. Senior superstar Greivis Vasquez is the catalyst for the offense, which puts up nearly 80 points per game. Vasquez contributes almost one-quarter of that scoring, averaging 19.5 points, 4.6 rebounds and 6.3 assists per game. He’s not the best shooter in the tournament, making about 43 percent of his attempts, but he is one of the most fiery leaders. Fueled by Vasquez’s leadership, a trio of experienced players will be ready to contribute. Landon Milbourne, Eric Hayes and Sean Mosley will need to continue to score in double figures to help the Terrapins advance past No. 13 Houston in the first round and then No. 5 Michigan State or No. 12 New Mexico State.

Against Houston, the Terrapins will face the nation’s leading scorer in Aubrey Coleman. Look for Maryland to give up plenty of points to Coleman but limit the production of any other Cougar. The Terrapins would likely obliterate the defensively challenged Aggies. Coach Tom Izzo’s Spartans would provide a more formidable match up, but the Terrapins will win that one on the strength of clutch performances by Vasquez and Hayes. But Kansas will end Maryland’s hopes. In all, the ACC co-champions should be happy with a run to the Sweet 16. It would mark their best season in nearly a decade.

Clemson Tigers (Overall: 21-10, ACC: 9-7)

No. 7 seed, East Region

As the No. 7 seed in the East Region, Clemson has a tough draw. The Achilles’ heel for the Tigers has been a downright ugly turnover rate. More than 20 percent of the team’s possessions end in a turnover. That’s a problem when facing No. 10-seed Missouri, which is one of the three best teams in the country at forcing turnovers. The Tigers desperately need guards Demontez Stitt and Andre Young to take care of the ball. The two combine to average 4.4 turnovers per game and only 5.6 assists per game. That’s not a great ratio for the team’s primary ball-handlers.

However, if Clemson can cut down the turnovers, senior Trevor Booker will have a huge day. He leads the team with 15.3 points and 8.3 rebounds per game, with about one-third of those rebounds coming at the offensive end. Missouri is one of the worst teams in the country at keeping opponents off the glass.

On defense, the Tigers from Missouri might play right into the strength of the Tigers from Clemson. Missouri likes to jack up lots of three-pointers. But Clemson allow only 29.4 percent three-point shooting this season, ranked tenth-best.

Clemson will win a wild one against Missouri that should see plenty of turnover-induced scoring runs. But the Tigers will run into trouble against West Virginia. That game could start as a blowout for West Virginia and end with Clemson making it interesting before falling short at the end.

Florida State Seminoles (Overall: 22-9, ACC: 10-6)

No. 9 seed, West Region

Based on their offensive inefficiency, the Seminoles have no business beating anyone in the tournament. But Florida State’s defense manages to make games ugly enough to give the Seminoles a chance. As the No. 9 seed in the West Region, Florida State will face a stiff challenge from No. 8 Gonzaga. In the end, Gonzaga’s balance will undo another strong defensive performance by Florida State.

The Seminoles are among the 15 worst teams in the country at protecting the ball. All those turnovers will lead to defeat against Gonzaga. And if they fall behind, the Seminoles will struggle to rally because they shoot only 33.5 percent from three-point range. Center Solomon Alabi will deliver another strong performance in the paint, but he could easily finish with more blocks than the team has three-pointers. Barring an epic defensive performance, that’s not a good recipe for success in the NCAA Tournament.

Florida State’s best chance at victory is to keep the score under 60 points and maintain at least a two-possession throughout the second half. The Seminoles are a bad free throw shooting team and will need as large of a cushion as possible in the closing moments to stop a late rally. Gonzaga probably won’t even need that, though.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons (Overall: 19-10, ACC: 9-7)

No. 9 seed, East Region

Wake Forest, the No. 9 seed in the East Region, has a veteran lineup with three senior starters and a future NBA Draft pick in sophomore Al-Farouq Aminu. But for the second consecutive season, the Demon Deacons are sliding at the end of the season as losers of five of their last six games. To avoid a second straight one-and-done NCAA Tournament performance, the Demon Deacons need to find a way past equally underwhelming No. 8 Texas.

With six wins against the RPI top 50, Wake Forest has the talent needed to beat the Longhorns and maybe even challenge top-seeded Kentucky. But it won’t happen. The team’s offense is floundering, primarily because of the two-headed monster of turnovers and bad shooting. Wake Forest ranks among the bottom half of Division I teams in protecting the ball, and the Demon Deacons shoot a dismal 31.3 percent from three-point range and 47.6 percent inside the arc. Even if Wake Forest has a lead, the team’s 66.0 percent free throw shooting could jeopardize the win.

Aminu will struggle against Texas’ superstar, Damion James. He might approach his average of 15.7 points per game, but if Aminu needs to guard James on the perimeter throughout the game, he won’t be able to grab as many rebounds as usual (10.7 per game). Likewise, James and Dexter Pittman have the size needed to box out Wake Forest’s big men and cut off one of the Demon Deacons’ strengths: their ability to grab offensive rebounds.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (Overall: 22-12, ACC: 7-9)

No. 10 seed, Midwest Region

Like Wake Forest and Florida State, the Yellow Jackets are far better at stopping opponents than scoring. But in comparison to those two ACC peers, the No. 10 seed in the Midwest Region is much better offensively. Georgia Tech will face an offensively oriented team in No. 7-seed Oklahoma State. Both teams have played inconsistently this season, and the Cowboys might rely too much on scoring sensation James Anderson. That would behoove the Yellow Jackets.

Georgia Tech doesn’t let opponents shoot well from anywhere, and Anderson will struggle to find clean looks against the much taller Yellow Jackets. Forwards Gani Lawal and Derrick Favors will need to the difference makers for Georgia Tech. The two big men combine to average 25.6 points, 17.2 rebounds and 3.5 blocks per game. Collectively, they grab more than six offensive rebounds per game. In a game that likely will figure plenty of missed shots, rebounding will be critical, and Georgia Tech has an advantage.

Interestingly, Georgia Tech’s likely second-round opponent, No. 2-seed Ohio State, has a similar profile to Oklahoma State, with Evan Turner dominating the offense and the rest of the team coming along for the ride. But the rest of the Buckeyes are much better than the rest of the Cowboys. Ohio State will take advantage of Georgia Tech’s proclivity to commit critical turnovers to win a closer than expected game.

In summary, the ACC figures to have mostly expected results. As a No. 1 seed, Duke is supposed to reach at least the Elite Eight. The Blue Devils will deliver on that promise en route to a championship game appearance — and loss — to Kansas. Besides Kansas, only Maryland will reach the Sweet 16. Wake Forest and Florida State will fail to win a game, while Georgia Tech and Clemson will advance one round before losing to No. 2 seeds.

However, the ACC will likely surprise critics with Duke’s success and close losses to presumably far superior teams.

Bracket Breakdown: How the Atlantic 10 Will Fare

The Atlantic 10 Conference didn’t receive a lot of respect from the selection committee after a fantastic season. Temple, Xavier and Richmond will look to prove that they are better teams than their seeds would indicate. But a couple of them have tough match ups. Here is a preview of the Atlantic 10 teams in the Big Dance.

Temple Owls (Overall: 29-5, A-10: 14-2)

No. 5 seed, East Region

The Owls have to be wondering what more they need to do to earn a top four seed. The selection committee gave Temple a No. 5 seed in the East Region after the Owls finished 29-5, won both the regular-season and tournament titles, and knocked off Villanova in non-conferece action. But Temple won’t whine about positioning — this team is too mentally tough for that. And that toughness has the Owls poised for a potentially shocking tournament run — if they can past pesky No. 12-seed Cornell first.

Temple is heavily imbalanced toward defense. But that defense is impeccable. The Owls are No. 1 in the country in effective field goal percentage, according to Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency statistics. Temple shuts down opposing team’s perimeter players, allowing them to shoot only 28.1 percent from three-point range. But it’s not any easier to score inside the arc against Temple. The Owls’ opponents shoot only 42.5 percent from there.

On offense, Temple is not exactly a juggernaut. The Owls don’t shoot particularly well from anywhere. But they don’t commit many turnovers or beat themselves. Guards Ryan Brooks and Juan Fernandez lead the offense with 14.3 points per game and 12.6 points per game, respectively. Fernandez is the perfect foil for opponents’ three-point shooters because he makes 46.1 percent of this long-range shots. It won’t be easy for opponents to make deep shots, but when they do, Fernandez will be ready to answer.

And he might need to do so often in the first round if Temple’s vaunted defense falters against Cornell, the best three-point shooting team in the nation. The Big Red hit 43.8 percent of their shots from the perimeter. But Cornell doesn’t play great defense, which should aid Temple’s plodding offense. The Owls should get past Cornell in a low-scoring, ugly match up. No. 4-seed Wisconsin will likely await. Like Cornell, the Badgers rely heavily on three-pointers. Temple and Wisconsin are nearly mirror images of each other, except Wisconsin’s offense is far more efficient while Temple’s defense is tougher.

In the end, Wisconsin’s better balance will deliver the win, but either team figures to match up well against No. 1-seed Kentucky in the Sweet 16. If Temple can find a way out of Jacksonville, Fla., with two wins, the Owls could easily be playing for a Final Four berth in Syracuse March 27.

Xavier Musketeers (Overall: 24-8, A-10: 14-2)

No. 6 seed, West Region

Unlike Richmond and Temple, Xavier can’t complain much about its seeding. The Musketeers might be worthy of a No. 5 seed, but there’s nothing wrong with No. 6 in the West, especially with Minnesota on the slate in the first round. Minnesota played four games in four days during the Big Ten tournament and a total of five games in eight days.

Xavier relies on a balanced offense led by sophomore Jordan Crawford, famous for dunking on LeBron James last summer. The Musketeers will need Crawford to become famous for big-time performances in the tournament if Xavier plans to advance past one round. Crawford averages 19.7 points per game and shoots 39 percent from three-point range. Minnesota is vulnerable to teams that shoot well from long range, allowing opponents to shoot 34.0 percent from behind the arc. That might make Dante Jackson and Brad Redford, both of whom shoot about 40 percent from three-point land, more critical in the first round than Xavier fans might expect.

In a tight one, the Musketeers will advance to face No. 3-seed Pittsburgh, which eliminated the Musketeers in the Sweet 16 last season. But Xavier will once again fall short against the Panthers in another tight game. Pitt’s slow pace, orchestrated by junior Brad Wanamaker and senior Jermaine Dixon, will frustrate the up-tempo Musketeers. With only one senior starter, Xavier figures to be back next season when the Musketeers will be better equipped to make another deep run in the turnament.

Richmond Spiders (Overall: 26-8, A-10: 13-3)

No. 7 seed, South Region

The Spiders entered Selection Sunday figuring that five wins against the RPI top 50, including wins against conference heavyweights Temple and Xavier, would deliver a No. 5 or 6 seed. But Richmond slipped to No. 7 in the South Region and gets a tough first-round game against No. 10-seed Saint Mary’s.

Richmond is a defensive-minded team that runs coach Chris Mooey’s version of the Princeton offense. The result is a slow-paced, perimeter-oriented attack. The backcourt duo of Kevin Anderson and David Gonzalvez pace Richmond’s offense by probing the opponents’ defense for easy layups. If the close-in shot isn’t available, they look outside, where Justin Harper and Ryan Butler are also legitimate long-range threats. Each of the Spiders’ top four scorers has made at least 37 three-pointers this season and attempted more than 100.

Although Richmond is great at avoiding turnovers and plays stifling defense, the Spiders might just be facing their worst possible first-round match up. Saint Mary’s has plenty of long players who can bother the Spiders’ three-point threats. And senior Omar Samhan is a game-changing defensive stalwart who hoovers up all rebounds. The Gaels have the fourth-best three-point defense in the country. Saint Mary’s will likely shut down the perimeter game, and Samhan can single-handedly erase the Spiders’ cuts to the basket.

A one-and-done performance will overshadow a fantastic season for the Spiders, who fortunately will return all but two of their major contributors next season.

Bracket Breakdown: How the Big 12 Will Fare

With more than half of its conference participating in the NCAA Tournament, the Big 12 has sky-high aspirations to have at least one of its members making it all the way to the Final Four. And two of them making it is not a foolish prospect either. Here is a preview of what to expect from all seven Big 12 participants in the Dance.

Kansas Jayhawks (32-2, 15-1 Big 12)

No. 1 seed, Midwest Region

Ranked No. 1 in the nation and having received the top overall No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, Kansas is the Big 12’s — and NCAA’s — favorite to bring home the prize: the national championship.

Owners of 13- and 14-game winning streaks during the regular season, the Jayhawks come into the mid-March Madness having won every game they were supposed to win, their only losses coming on road games to No. 14 Tennessee and daunting Oklahoma State. Kansas won its conference’s regular-season title by a wide margin and also paced itself to a trouble-free Big 12 tournament championship.

The Jayhawks have already beaten a number of teams invited to this year’s field of 65. That includes road wins against a No. 5 seed, Temple, which Kansas thrashed 84-52 Jan. 2, and Kansas State, a conference rival and a No. 2 seed, which the Jayhawks defeated grittily, 81-79, in overtime Jan. 30.

Back spasms almost prevented Kansas’ star, point guard Sherron Collins from coming back in time to down the Wildcats during the Jayhawks’ overtime win, but very little stops the senior from leading his team to victory these days, especially in crunch time. The Jahawks’ leading scorer and assist man at 15.5 points and 4.6 assists per game, Collins is added insurance when a game gets too close for comfort. In the rest of the occasions, Kansas’ complete offense/defense combo does the trick alone.

The Midwest Region isn’t exactly the cakewalk section of the tournament, but Kansas should advance unchallenged through at least the first two rounds, downing 16th-seeded Lehigh in the first and UNLV/Northern Iowa in the second. Maryland, Georgetown or Ohio State might throw a scare into them into the Sweet Sixteen and beyond, but the Jayhawks are not only destined to get to the Final Four but also to win the tournament championship for the second time in the past three seasons.

Kansas State Wildcats (26-7, 11-5)

No. 2 seed, West Region

Feeling lucky to be in any region besides the one the Jayhawks are in — seeing how the Wildcats have lost 41 of the 43 past meetings — Kansas State is the No. 2 seed in the West, behind the monster Big East Conference’s Syracuse. The Wildcats have an exciting combo of guards in Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente, who average a combined 35.1 points per game, and shouldn’t have problems advancing to the Sweet 16 by beating No. 15 North Texas and No. 7 BYU.

But that’s where they’ll likely encounter another Big East bully, Pittsburgh, and things could get complicated for the Wildcats. Pittsburgh’s defense could create a lot of problems for Kansas State, and in a match up of second-place teams in the top two conferences, the Panthers would show the Wildcats that the Big East is just a tidbit better than the Big 12 and end their best season in more than 20 years.

Baylor Bears (25-7, 11-5)

No. 3 seed, South Region

No team may have an easier path to the Final Four than Baylor, a No. 3 seed in the weakest region, the South. The No. 1 seed of that section is Duke, a team many believed could fall to a No. 2, followed by Villanova, a squad that has fallen from grace after losing five of its past seven games.

Not only do the Bears have a high-scoring backcourt duo in LaceDarius Dunn (19.4 ppg) and Tweety Carter (15.7 ppg), but they also play intensively on the defensive end. First, they get No. 14 Sam Houston State, a team that will see itself overmatched against the Bears. Then, likely, it will be No. 6 Notre Dame, a dangerous opponent that may upend them, but if the Bears can get past them, the Sweet 16 will await them in Houston, giving them a home court advantage they can ride into the Elite Eight and Final Four.

Texas A&M Aggies (23-9, 11-5)

No. 5 seed, South Region

With two wins, the Aggies get to play a virtual home game in the Sweet 16. That’s all the Aggies of Texas A&M need to do to get a match up in Houston against (likely) the South Region’s top seed, Duke. That’s easier said than done, though. The No. 5 Aggies need to get past the No. 12 Aggies of Utah State, the second-best three-point shooting team in the nation. This game is more even than people might realize because of that long-range shooting wild card.

Utah State won 17 games in a row at one point for a reason, and Texas A&M might see itself get upset in the first round. Utah State is scarier than either team Texas A&M would get in the second round: a No. 4 Purdue without Robbie Hummel or No. 13 Siena. But if the higher-seeded Aggies can get past that first-round hurdle, they could get themselves a dream game in the Sweet 16.

Missouri Tigers (22-10, 10-6)

No. 10 seed, East Region

Inconsistency is the name of Missouri, a No. 10 seed in the East Region. The Tigers opened the season by winning their first four games, then dropped three of their next four. They then ran out to a winning streak of nine games before losing three of their next five. The latest word on the Tigers is a stretch that could have seen them lose four consecutive games if they had not pulled out an overtime win at lowly Iowa State March 2.

No. 7 Clemson, Missouri’s first-round rival, isn’t riding high either after losing its last two games before the NCAA Tournament, but the battle of Tigers will probably go the more-experienced Clemson’s way. Missouri’s leading scorers are all second-year players. The best is yet to come for them, just not this year.

Texas Longhorns (24-9, 9-7)

No. 8 seed, East Region

Few understand what’s happened to Texas, a team that won its first 17 games, earned a No. 1 ranking and then lost nine times in 16 games. But when looking at the schedule, it’s not that difficult to find an answer: the Big 12 happened. The eighth-seeded Longhorns lost seven games against conference rivals and were unable to get any confidence-building wins. A big chunk of their Big 12 victories came at the expense of teams like Iowa State and Texas Tech, the conference’s little brothers.

The Longhorns, however, did get a break in drawing No. 9 Wake Forest as their first-round East Region match up. The Demon Deacons are more done than an overcooked turkey on Thanksgiving Day. Texas fans better enjoy those Damion James‘ first-round dunks. They will be some of his last, seeing how the second round will bring top-seeded Kentucky and the end of a season-gone-awry for Texas.

Oklahoma State Cowboys (22-10, 9-7)

No. 7 seed, Midwest Region

Just how good is shooting guard James Anderson? Good enough to carry Oklahoma State to at least one NCAA Tournament win, that’s how good he is. The No. 7 Cowboys get a date with No. 10 Georgia Tech in the first round of the Midwest Region, and Anderson and his 22.6 points per game look to be more than sufficient to get them past a Yellow Jackets squad that had a losing record (7-9) in the ACC.

Beating up on top teams has been the Cowboys’ trademark this season. They were one of two teams that handed Kansas a loss this season, a fact that should scare anyone who happens to be in their way. But they also beat Baylor and handled Kansas State in Manhattan. They are capable of upsetting No. 2 Ohio State in the second round, but we won’t predict that considering the Buckeyes’ Evan Turner will be awaiting. Out with a bang, that’s how the Cowboys will go in the second round.

Besides Missouri, all Big 12 teams in the NCAA Tournament look poised to win at least one game in the Dance, with a couple of them having the potential to reach the Final Four. That’ll make the conference very proud of all its children. In the end, though, it’s all about Kansas for the Big 12, and the Jayhawks will show why they always got the biggest piece of cake for dessert.

NCAA Tournament Match Ups and Schedule

Check out the locations for all rounds of the NCAA Tournament and links to team summaries. Click on the map icons to see when that location will be hosting tournament games and who will be there. Click on the team name to go to a summary page with tons of useful information collected by Ken Pomeroy, the master of basketball statistics.
View 2010 NCAA Tournament in a larger map

Bracket Breakdown: Mock Tournament 5.0

With several bubbles near bursting, fans from coast to coast just want some more wins in the final nine days before Selection Sunday. Entering the final weekend of the regular season, Huskies, Illini, Gators and Bearcats are sweating their teams’ fading profiles.

While some fans nervously await their conference tournaments, other fans will celebrate their invitation to the Big Dance when the Atlantic Sun, Big South, Missouri Valley and Ohio Valley conferences crown a 2010 champion. We have a great weekend of basketball ahead, with teams like Purdue, Duke and Kansas State slugging it out against other opponents while competing with one another for the final No. 1 seed. The urgency of bubble teams from the Big East and SEC will come close to matching the pure joy felt by several newly crowned conference champions.

In Version 5.0 of the Mock Tournament, I take the predictions a step further by assigning first-round match ups. In creating match ups, I occasionally deviate from the 1-65 rankings. For example, in the interest of putting Utah State closer to home, I bumped the Aggies from a No. 10 seed to No. 11 seed. Rhode Island benefited by moving up to a No. 10 seed even though the Rams are one of the last few teams to make the tournament.

Perhaps most controversial, I have nine Big East teams in the field with the inclusion of Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish’s late surge is undeniably impressive. However, many readers — especially those Gator fans — might protest leaving Connecticut in the field given that the Huskies lost at Notre Dame Monday and now have 13 losses. Within a week, the Huskies might be out of the field. But as of March 5, they’re in thanks to marquee wins against West Virginia and at Villanova. However, Connecticut would be wise to avoid losing at South Florida Saturday. It would be the Huskies’ 14th loss, and unless they win the Big East Tournament, they would enter Selection Sunday with 15 losses. No team has received an at-large invitation with 15 losses.

Let’s get to the brackets. Compare this field to previous Mock Tournaments, and leave a comment to share your thoughts about the projected field.

Mock Tournament 4.0

Mock Tournament 3.0

Mock Tournament 2.0

Mock Tournament 1.0