Notre Dame reminds us that we don’t play the games on paper

We always talk about how the games aren’t played on paper when looking at teams that don’t do what we expect. It’s a cliché, and it sticks around because everyone loves to predict how things will turn out in sports, no matter how wrong we could wind up being. All the while, the teams that end up better than we project can just laugh at us all they want.

Enter the 2011-12 Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

Notre Dame lost a great deal from last season’s team that entered the month of March playing about as well as any team in the country. Gone from that team are Big East Player of the Year Ben Hansbrough and important role players Tyrone Nash and Carleton Scott, the latter a big defensive leader for that team and a surprise early defection. Already, projections for this team were going to be that they were unlikely to contend for the top of the Big East. When they went 0-2 in Kansas City, including an 87-58 thrashing at the hands of Missouri, it looked like they would be who many thought they would be.

That wasn’t all. The Fighting Irish were not certain to have Tim Abromaitis back, as he played in two exhibition games in the 2008-09 season where he redshirted. But the NCAA granted him this year, so that helped as he was an experienced player and was second on the team in scoring last season. Then in late November, he tore the ACL in his right knee in practice, putting him out for the season.

At that point, the outlook was decidedly not good. But no one told head coach Mike Brey and his team that, and after Saturday’s convincing 76-59 win over Marquette, the Fighting Irish are alone in fourth place in the Big East.

“From the start of the season, no one thought we would be here,” said sophomore point guard Eric Atkins.

Notre Dame hasn’t compiled its record by beating up on the bottom feeders of the conference. Along the way, they have knocked off Louisville, Seton Hall and Connecticut on the road, and now Syracuse and Marquette at home.

“I am very proud of my group,” said Brey, who at this point looks like the runaway Coach of the Year in the Big East, if not nationally. “I told them in one of the final media timeouts that I felt like I was coaching men today. Last year’s team was men. That had a look of more than one fifth year senior on the court. I am thrilled where we are.”

Notre Dame can only get better given that this is a young team with a lot of players who are just finding themselves. Scott Martin is the only other senior besides Abromaitis on the team, while the emerging perimeter unit of Atkins, Jerian Grant and Pat Connaughton are sophomore, sophomore and freshman respectively. Connaughton wasn’t expected to play much, but he scored 21 points on Saturday and now starts on the hardwood as well as the mound (the San Diego Padres drafted him last year).

“Right now, we’re really confident that we can beat any team – we can play with any team,” said Grant. “Our team confidence is really high right now, and I’d like to keep it that way because we are playing really well.”

That’s one thing no one can doubt at this point. The Irish have proven that to this point, and as a more confident team they will be even tougher to beat.

We take you coast to coast with news from around the college basketball nation.

Arizona had a big weekend, sweeping their trip to northern California after a 56-43 win at Stanford on Saturday. The Wildcats may be starting to come alive at a good time.

Syracuse got Fab Melo back for Saturday’s game, and they rolled to a 95-70 blowout win at St. John’s. The win was the 879^th in Jim Boeheim’s career, tying him with Dean Smith for third on the all-time list.

Seton Hall’s struggles continued as Connecticut annihilated them 69-46 in Hartford.

Kentucky had an easy time at South Carolina, committing just three turnovers in their blowout win.

The Big 12 gets a little more interesting at Missouri rallied to knock off Kansas in a big rivalry showdown. Both teams are now 8-2 in conference play.

Who’s on top of the ACC? No, not Duke, although the Blue Devils will be tied if they beat Miami on Sunday. North Carolina is in a tie after a big 83-74 win at Maryland to move into a tie for that spot. The team they are tied with is Florida State, as the Seminoles are 7-1 after a 58-55 win over Virginia.

Temple is now alone in first place in the Atlantic 10 after a 73-56 win at Rhode Island, combined with Saint Joseph’s knocking off La Salle earlier in the day. Temple’s perimeter trio continues to be the driving force for this team.

Wyoming knocked off road-weary UNLV in a close one after the Runnin’ Rebels ran into snow-related travel delays en route to Laramie.

Northern Iowa beat Creighton on a buzzer-beater, right after Creighton had tied it on a big shot.

Iona won a big showdown against Manhattan for the lead in the MAAC.

George Mason grabbed a share of the lead in the Colonial Athletic Association with a 54-50 win over Old Dominion in a first-place showdown. The Patriots are joined by VCU, 59-56 winners over Northeastern, and Drexel, 65-57 winners at Towson, at 11-2 in the conference.

Mississippi Valley State is now 10-0 in the SWAC and two games ahead in the standings, after knocking off Alabama State.

Sunday’s key matchups:

• Michigan at Michigan State
• Miami at Duke
• Northwestern at Illinois
• Stephen F. Austin at McNeese State
• The biggest one of all: New York Giants vs. New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLVI

Northern Iowa Panthers 2011-12 Preview

Northern Iowa Panthers (20-14, 10-8)

Projected starting five:

Jr. G Anthony James
Jr. F Jake Koch
Sr. G Johnny Moran
Jr. G Marc Sonnen
Jr. C Austin Pehl

Important departures:

Kwadzo Ahelegbe: 14.1 ppg
Lucas O’ Rear: 6.9 ppg, 5.7 rpg

Percent returning:

Starts: 64.7 percent
Minutes: 68.7 percent
Scoring: 64.7 percent
Rebounding: 66.1 percent

Additions:

Northern Iowa is bringing in a freshman class that looks like it will have a bright future. Matt Bohannon, a 6’4” guard, led his high school to a perfect record and the Iowa class 4-A title as a senior. Forward Seth Tuttle was a three-time all-state selection at West Fork High School, Iowa, and basically rewrote the season and all-time record book at his school for points, rebounds, blocks and assists. From Hopkins High School in Minnesota, 6’6” forward Marvin Singleton was named the State Tournament MVP two years in a row, as Hopkins won three consecutive state titles. He averaged 20 points and 12 rebounds per game as a senior.

Toughest nonconference match ups:

Nov. 12 at Old Dominion
Nov. 14 at St. Mary’s

Outlook:

On paper, the Panthers return three starters and a lot of depth. However, one of those players not returning is Lucas O’ Rear, and it was clear how much of an impact he had on the team. Before O’ Rear went down with a season-ending injury in the beginning of February last season, UNI was in the hunt for the conference title. After the injury, the Panthers dropped six of their final seven regular season contests. The Panthers also must account for the loss of Kwadzo Ahelegbe, the team’s top scorer and fifth-best in the MVC. The talent and experience are there to compete for a conference crown. How Northern Iowa responds to the loss of those two players will make the difference between an MVC title or a second middle-of-the-pack finish in as many seasons.

Prediction: Fifth

Next: Southern Illinois Salukis

Back to Missouri Valley preview

Missouri Valley Notebook – February 23, 2011

Valley struggles in BracketBusters weekend
In an attempt to make a statement and avoid being a one-bid league for the NCAA Tournament, the Missouri Valley Conference (MVC) did not fare well this weekend in the BracketBusters challenge. The league combined for a 3-7 record in the competition, with all six postseason hopefuls falling. Wichita State, Northern Iowa and Indiana State all had opportunities at home, but failed to capitalize in defeats to VCU, George Mason and Morehead State. This weekend’s struggles magnify the importance of the final week before the conference tournament in St. Louis, March 3-6.

A look at the postseason hopefuls:

… Continue Reading

Missouri Valley Notebook – December 5, 2010

Missouri Valley dominated in MWC-MVC Challenge Series

Any bubble teams from the Missouri Valley Conference on Selection Sunday better hope no team from the Mountain West is also on the bubble. The bids will likely go out west based on head-to-head play, as the Mountain West Conference breezed to an 8-1 record in this year’s Mountain West-Missouri Valley Challenge Series. Six of the eight losses were by double digits for the Valley, and only Northern Iowa’s 64-60 win at TCU was the MVC’s taste of victory. There will be little time to lick the wounds, as games against powers such as Duke, North Carolina and Oklahoma State loom this week.

A look at some of the Challenge Series highlights:

Wichita State barely blinked and saw a three-point lead turn into an 11-point deficit during an 83-69 loss at No. 17 San Diego State on Saturday night. It was a match that pitted who most consider the top teams of each conference, and the score can be a little misleading. Had it not been for a fierce two-minute stretch, the contest probably could have been a last-possession thriller. The Shockers led 47-44 in the second half and only let roughly two minutes pass before hitting their next basket. But San Diego State caught fire and reeled off 14 straight points during that span. The closest WSU could pull within the Aztecs after that was six. Wichita State (5-2) now sits at 0-2 against teams currently in the top 25.

Two other top 25 teams from the Mountain West had little trouble with their competition. No. 23 UNLV cruised past Illinois State, 82-51, and 25th-ranked BYU held off Creighton at the Qwest Center, 77-65. Coupled with another loss to Nebraska on Sunday, Creighton’s record against above-.500 teams fell to 1-4. The Bluejays nearly came back to pull off the upset against BYU after erasing a double-digit deficit midway in the second half, but the Cougars tallied 10 straight after Creighton tied the game and made that lead stick.

Bad news for the rest of the MVC: Northern Iowa’s defense is still improving and forcing opponents to play its style. The Panthers held TCU to 60 points on the road, which actually raised their points allowed per game to around 58. The Missouri Valley’s sole win in this series was also the Horned Frogs’ first home defeat of the season.

Evansville was one basket away from giving the MVC a second win in the series – also on the road. Kenny Harris missed a trey as time expired, and Air Force held on, 57-56. Even in the defeat, the Aces continue to look like they may compete for an upper-half finish in the MVC. The real measuring stick will come when North Carolina visits on Wednesday.

Other outcomes of the series: Utah held off Bradley, 68-60, sending the Braves to their fourth consecutive loss after a 4-0 start. Wyoming had little trouble taking care of Indiana State, 81-51. New Mexico used a second-half spurt to pull away at Southern Illinois, 74-59. And Drake shot almost 60 percent from the field in the first half at Colorado State, but couldn’t keep up in the second half during a 78-67 defeat.

Top performers in the MWC-MVC Challenge

Doug McDermott, Creighton: The freshman forward grabbed another double-double with 20 points and 12 boards. He also hauled in more than half of the Bluejays’ offensive rebounds.

Andrew Warren, Bradley: The loss to Utah spoiled a stellar output from the guard. Warren sank 27 points, grabbed 10 rebounds, was 10-for-10 at the charity stripe, nailed 3 treys and snatched 4 steals.

Kwadzo Ahelegbe, Northern Iowa: The senior guard scored almost half of the Panthers total points. Without a doubt, the Northern Iowa defensive effort would have been a loss without his contribution.

Ranking the MVC (through Dec. 6)

1. Wichita State (5-2)
2. Missouri State (6-2)
3. Northern Iowa (4-2)
4. Creighton (4-4)
5. Evansville (3-3)
6. Bradley (4-4)
7. Illinois State (6-2)
8. Indiana State (3-5)
9. Southern Illinois (4-4)
10. Drake (2-4)

Top games to watch this week

Wednesday, Dec. 8

Bradley at No. 1 Duke: A four-game skid is not how the Braves envisioned going into Durham, N.C., but a road win at No. 1 would be quite the way to snap a losing streak. The MVC will try to make it two wins in a row over No. 1, after Northern Iowa’s triumph over Kansas last March. Valley teams haven’t beat the top-ranked team outside of the NCAA Tournament in almost 59 years.

North Carolina at Evansville: Evansville also gets to take on an ACC power Wednesday when the Tar Heels visit. UNC sits just outside the top 25 going into this contest. The matchup will be a perfect opportunity for the Aces to prove their win over Butler wasn’t a fluke.

Saturday, Dec. 11

Missouri State at Oklahoma State: After missing its opportunity at Tennessee last month, Missouri State has one last shot to take down a BCS team before conference play.

Missouri Valley Notebook – November 30, 2010

The young season is two weeks old already, and the Missouri Valley Conference is off to a slow start – although against some strong competition. All teams have combined for a 33-21 non-conference record – not quite on pace to match last winter’s 90-39 mark.

What we’ve learned heading into December:

Wichita State is the only team helping its at-large opportunity so far. Yes, there is a long time to go after November, but the selection committee nevertheless will look at some of these good wins and losses – and in some cases, very bad losses. Wichita State (3-1) has steamrolled through the competition early, with the only defeat at the hands of Connecticut, 83-79. UConn, now ranked No. 7, shot its way to the Maui Tournament title, also knocking down the likes of No. 2 Michigan State and No. 9 Kentucky.

Other teams who may depend on at-large bids in March aren’t faring as well as the Shockers. After rushing out to a 4-0 start, Bradley has dropped two straight, including a head-scratching home loss to Eastern Illinois. Missouri State (4-2) sits in a slightly better position, with a 4-point loss to then-No. 23 Tennessee, but another loss to Conference USA foe, Tulsa. What may work in Missouri State’s favor this March is its 60-49 victory over fellow mid-major, Pacific. Northern Iowa’s (2-2) best chance to prove it hasn’t fallen far from last season’s success flopped during the second half of the season-opener at Syracuse, a 68-46 defeat. That was followed with another loss at Wisconsin-Milwaukee.

Creighton (4-2) has a lot to prove in the Mountain West-Valley Challenge Series this week. A date with BYU on Wednesday will give the Bluejays an opportunity to raise some eyebrows. It will also give Creighton another chance to beat a team with a winning record for the first time this season.

Through the questions though, Creighton has a fearsome trio forming for MVC opponents. Antoine Young, Kenny Lawson Jr. and newcomer Doug McDermott have combined for 44 points and almost 20 rebounds per game. If they’re unable to grab the needed non-conference wins, the Bluejays are certainly solidifying themselves as a scary team by the time the conference slate begins.

The Northern Iowa defense looks like it will have to be stellar for another postseason appearance. They allowed just 55 points per game last season and might need to duplicate that to stay competitive in the MVC during 2010-11 to aid a struggling offense. Not counting the victory over Division III Coe College, the Panther offense is managing a mere 58.7 points. The good news so far: The defense is still solid, allowing just 57.5 points in four games. Syracuse managed the best output so far against them during its 68-46 thumping.

Evansville (3-2) is continuing where it left off last season. A 71-68 overtime win at No. 23 Butler Saturday is the proof. As the only MVC team not to win at least 10 games last season, Evansville still finished the ’09-10 campaign 3-3. That included wins over league leaders Northern Iowa and Wichita State and another near-miss against Wichita State. With its current play, the Aces may be pushing 10 wins by the time they play Wichita State on Dec. 29. Even if they don’t have 10 by then, the Aces have clearly pulled themselves out of the Valley cellar.

Ranking the Missouri Valley (through Nov. 28)

1. Wichita State (4-1)
2. Missouri State (4-2)
3. Bradley (4-2)
4. Northern Iowa (2-2)
5. Creighton (4-2)
6. Evansville (3-2)
7. Indiana State (3-3)
8. Illinois State (5-1)
9. Southern Illinois (3-3)
10. Drake (2-3)

Games to watch this week

Tuesday, Nov. 30

Indiana State at No. 25 Notre Dame: After a rough start, the Sycamores have an opportunity to run their win streak to three and make a statement against the newly-ranked Irish.

Wednesday, Dec. 1

Iowa State at Northern Iowa: The unbeaten Cyclones (6-0) will try to continue their early season dominance over the MVC, having dropped 91 points on both Creighton and Drake. With the style Northern Iowa plays though, you can almost expect Iowa State and UNI to combine for 91 points Wednesday.

No. 21 BYU at Creighton: The Bluejays have yet to beat an opponent with a winning record. Wednesday is the perfect opportunity, as the No. 21 Cougars visit the Qwest Center unbeaten.

Saturday, Dec. 4

Wichita State at No. 17 San Diego State: This contest will be like a Bracket Buster in February, and could catapult the Shockers into the Top 25 with a win.

2010-11 Missouri Valley Conference Preview

A win over the NCAA tourney’s top seed, a CollegeInsider.com Tournament title and six overall postseason teams will be tough to top from last season, but the 2010-11 campaign should be even more competitive in the Missouri Valley Conference (MVC).

Ali Farokhmanesh sunk the biggest shot in the history of Northern Iowa basketball last March to help the MVC champion Panthers stun No. 1 Kansas in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. It ended a two-year drought from the Sweet 16 for the Missouri Valley. Unfortunately for Northern Iowa though, Farokhmanesh won’t slip on the purple and gold uniform this winter. He and the absence of two other starters from last season could drop the 30-win Panthers back to reality. … Continue Reading

Bracket Breakdown: Pac-10, Mid-Majors Show the Big East the Door

It all started with some kid from a Kentucky school not named Kentucky stunning the college basketball world with an odds-defying, game-winning jumper at the buzzer. Thanks to forward Danero Thomas, 13th-seeded Murray State shocked No. 4-seed Vanderbilt, 66-65, in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last Thursday.

Racers’ fans went into a frenzy. Many people who had never even heard of the school before celebrated the feel-good upset just because of its own strange nature. Even more people, however, kicked at the ground and muttered curse words because the unexpected result shook up their brackets.

That was just the beginning. Perhaps inspired by the Racers’ Day 1 shocker, a No. 12 seed, Cornell, decided it would ride hot-shooting all the way into the Sweet 16, a similar case to that of No. 10 St. Mary’s, which unleashed its beast of a center, 6-11 Omar Samhan, in the South Region and knocked out second-seeded Villanova to also join the field of 16.

And after No. 9 Northern Iowa’s Ali Farokhmanesh made the most cold-blooded crunch-time 3-pointer in recent tournament memory to cement his team’s Sweet 16 ticket while taking down overall-top-seeded Kansas on Saturday, it was official that at least 90 percent of the country’s brackets had gone more busted than a piñata on Cinco de Mayo.

Putting aside the almighty custom of wagering on tournament predictions, however, March Madness has been splendid so far. Down-to-the-wire games have been numerous, as have been upsets. High seeds Kansas, Villanova, Georgetown, Vanderbilt, Wisconsin and Temple all got axed, but their executioners gave the competition parity and diversity. Entering the Sweet 16, 11 conferences will be represented.

Out of all surprise teams, Cornell has been the most pleasant one. The Big Red’s wins made it the first Ivy League team to make it this far in more than 30 years, and it did so with authority. Cornell smacked around No. 5 Temple in the first round and then did the same to No. 4 Wisconsin in the second while shooting a combined 58.6 percent in the games.

Even better than that, though, has been the performance of St. Mary’s Samhan, who has totaled 61 points through two games while making 24 of 32 field goal attempts. His supremacy has been the reason the Gaels are enjoying the best season in their history while Villanova is already home, lamenting its collapse.

Speaking of failure, that’s been the theme of the postseason for Nova’s conference. The Big East, widely regarded as the best league in college basketball, had a tournament-best eight entrants, but half were done by the end of the first round, and two more followed soon after in the second. Only No. 1-seed Syracuse in the West Region and No. 2-seed West Virginia in the East remain.

First-round meat: No. 6 Marquette, which blew a 15-point lead in the second half and lost to an out-to-prove-the-Pac-10-is-not-that-weak No. 11-seed Washington; No. 3-seed Georgetown, which was blasted by Ohio, a team that had a losing record in the MAC and got into the Dance only after winning its conference’s tournament; Notre Dame, which was zoned out of the tournament by No. 11-seed Old Dominion; and No. 9-seed Louisville, which also got embarrassed by the Pac-10, by Cal.

No. 3-seed Pittsburgh made the second round, but the Panthers couldn’t hang with No. 6-seed Xavier on Sunday and were ousted.

With so many high seeds gone so early, thanks in big part to the Big East, it’d clearly be silly to count any team out. In the East, No. 1-seed Kentucky will have the challenge to cool down the Big Red’s red-hot shooting, and West Virginia will have to remain impressive to get past an also-remarkable Washington. In the South, No. 1-seed Duke, which has made quick work of its rivals so far, will face a Purdue team missing Robbie Hummel, and No. 3-seed Baylor will deal with Samhan, St. Mary’s scary big man.

In the Midwest, Cinderella Northern Iowa will face No. 5-seed Michigan State, ecstatic after its buzzer-beating win over Maryland Sunday, and No. 2-seed Ohio State, the favorite to win the section now that Kansas is gone, will take on No. 6-seed Tennessee. In the West, No. 5-seed Butler, which got a scare from Murray State before advancing via a 54-52 win Saturday, will meet with Syracuse. The winner will play the winner of the Kansas State-Xavier game.

Predictions? We’re not too big on them these days, but the solid candidates to advance are Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke, West Virginia and Ohio State. These teams have been imposing through their first two games. They’re as dependable picks as Kansas was before Saturday.

Northern Iowa: No 7-Footer, No Problem for Panthers’ Tourney Chances

The road is long and winding in Missouri Valley Conference play, and although Northern Iowa (23-3) already clinched the league’s regular-season title by punishing Creighton (13-14) 70-52 Tuesday, the Panthers should know their work is far from finished.

If anything, they’re putting the finishing touches on an NCAA Tournament-worthy résumé.

Missing seven feet of production after their second-leading scorer and top rebounder, center Jordan Eglseder, was suspended for three games following a DUI arrest, Northern Iowa has encouraged selection committee members to consider the Panthers’ loss to Bradley (13-13) Saturday to be a fluke. The Panthers blew away the Blue Jays, the team they tied for the regular-season championship last season, and improved their home record to 12-0.

This all without Eglseder’s 12.2 points and 7.6 rebounds per game.

Northern Iowa will have to face the same circumstances twice more, starting with Old Dominion (21-7) in a Friday BracketBusters game on ESPN2.

Old Dominion, tied for first place in the Colonial Athletic Association, is an RPI top 50 team, a slight improvement in the challenge department compared to 13-14 Creighton.

An Eglseder-less win over the Monarchs would only help cement Northern Iowa’s already-solid case for an NCAA Tournament at-large bid. According to ESPN bracket expert Joe Lunardi, should the tourney start today, the Panthers would be a No. 7 seed.

Old Dominion, according to the same guy, would be a No. 9 seed.

The BracketBusters match will be a break from what turns out to be meaningless-in-regards-to-conference-tournament-seeding games for the MVC champions. But neither the Panthers nor the Monarchs will want to lose any NCAA ground in the at-large bid discussions.

Once done with Old Dominion, the Panthers will only have to survive one more game without their 7-footer, on Tuesday at Evansville, which has lost 16 of its last 17 games and is dead last in the conference.

A home date with Illinois State, whom the Panthers beat last year in overtime to win the conference tournament, will be last on the regular-season schedule. A four-game winning streak to finish the year — without counting the three wins they could rack up in the MVC tourney — will be just what the Panthers need to strengthen their case for a better seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Bracket Breakdown: Three Conference Tournaments That Bubble Teams Should Fear

Conference tournaments will start in about two weeks, and bubble teams from San Diego State to Connecticut will cross their fingers that the NCAA Tournament-worthy favorites from one-bid conferences take care of business.

Three conference tournaments in particular figure to stress out the fringe tournament teams. The Horizon League, Missouri Valley Conference and Western Athletic Conference have the looks of one-bid conferences. But if those conferences’ leaders fail to receive the automatic bid by winning their conference tournament, they have a good shot of making the tournament with an at-large bid.

Butler is the most comfortable conference leader of the three, as the Bulldogs remain undefeated in the Horizon League. Despite posting only two wins against the RPI top 50, the Bulldogs are ranked No. 17 in the RPI, thanks largely to a non-conference slate ranked No. 14 in difficulty. The good news for bubble teams is that the Horizon League tournament will be in Butler’s backyard in Indianapolis. And Butler has dominated the Horizon League’s most likely threats, beating Cleveland State, Wright State and Green Bay six times by an average of 14 points.

In the Missouri Valley, Northern Iowa has four more conference wins than second-place Wichita State. The Panthers sport a higher RPI than Butler at 15, though that will likely change tomorrow because Northern Iowa dropped a road game to Bradley, only the team’s second loss in conference play. Despite two losses to teams outside the RPI top 100, Northern Iowa still figures to receive an at-large bid if necessary because the team is 22-3 and has two wins against the RPI top 50. However, Northern Iowa’s road to the conference’s automatic bid is tougher than Butler’s. The tournament will be in St. Louis, and the Panthers have not exactly blown out most MIssouri Valley opponents — winning by less than 10 points in six of 13 victories.

Utah State would likely join the bubble if the Aggies lose in the WAC tournament in Reno, Nev. Although the Aggies have the best marquis win of Butler, Northern Iowa and Utah State — against BYU — they also have the most losses, six, including two against teams outside the RPI top 100. Utah State has a respectable strength of schedule hovering around 100, and the Aggies might continue to rise if they finish strongly in the 10th toughest conference. With four home games remaining, the Aggies could easily enter the WAC tournament with 24 wins. However, playing in Reno means the Nevada Wolf Pack will have home-court advantage knowing they must earn the conference’s automatic bid to make the NCAA Tournament. If Utah State loses to the Wolf Pack in the WAC championship game, the conference could end up with two bids in the NCAA Tournament.

With nearly half the Big East on the bubble, several prominent teams, such as Louisville, Connecticut and Marquette, will need to hope that Butler, Northern Iowa and Utah State ensure that seemingly one-bid conferences don’t unexpectedly become two-bid conferences. All three conference favorites will face upset-minded opponents in their tournaments, especially when their opponents know they can only earn an NCAA Tournament bid by receiving an automatic bid.