ACC player ratings: In search of this year’s Kemba Walker

About this time last season, Connecticut faltered after a 20-5 start, ending the regular season with four losses in five games.

Heading into the Big East Tournament, many observers figured the Huskies would be short-lived in both that tourney and the NCAA Tournament. Then Kemba did his thing.

With Kemba Walker leading the charge, UConn shook off its inconsistent play and locked down opponents on defense while giving Walker just enough support. And with Kemba averaging nearly 25 points and five assists during the team’s final 11-game winning streak, the Huskies needed only a handful of players to have good nights to keep things rolling.

Could anyone in the ACC step up and pull off a Kemba en route to a deep tournament run? Perhaps. … Continue Reading

Head-to-head comparisons: TIQ studs vs. prime time stars

If you’re looking at nothing but overall productivity on the court per 40 minutes, a few big names don’t have the same impressive stats when compared to guys who aren’t receiving as much attention but are legit stat stuffers.

As mentioned in the latest TIQ stats for the ACC, Pac-12 and SEC, I’m taking a look at head-to-head comparisons from each conference. Here’s who’s on tap:

• ACC: North Carolina State’s Lorenzo Brown vs. North Carolina’s Harrison Barnes
• Pac-12: Washington’s Tony Wroten vs. Oregon State’s Jared Cunningham
• SEC: Florida’s Patric Young vs. Vanderbilt’s John Jenkins … Continue Reading

ACC, Pac-12 and SEC player ratings, through Jan. 1

Quick — who’s having the better season so far: North Carolina State’s Lorenzo Brown or North Carolina’s Harrison Barnes? What about Vanderbilt’s John Jenkins or Florida’s Patric Young? Or Oregon State’s Jared Cunningham vs. Washington’s Tony Wroten?

If all you do is look up the scoring averages of each player, you’ll come up with an oversimplified — and probably wrong — answer for each comparison. That’s the limitation of using scoring averages as a measure of a player’s productivity. And that’s where the Total Impact Quotient can reveal far more relevant information by estimating the total points that a player contributes on offense and defense. You can find out more details about the TIQ system if you’re interested. … Continue Reading

Big 12, Big East and Big Ten player ratings, through Dec. 10

Which conference reigns supreme after six weeks into the season?

If the average Total Impact Quotient means anything, the Big 12 and Big Ten have a slight edge over the Big East. Our player rating system credits players for all the various contributions they make during a game, such as points scored, assists, blocks, steals, etc. The Big 12 and Big Ten players average 24.1 points per game, with the Big East not far behind at 23.9 points per game. All three conferences are a cut above the ACC, Pac-12 and SEC, which we critiqued last week.

Although the Big 12 and Big Ten have the slight edge, the Big East has the most productive player of any power conference team. Pittsburgh’s Travon Woodall has been in beast mode all season, at least until a groin injury and abdominal tear forced Woodall to the sidelines for one month. That’s about the only thing that’s been able to stop Woodall … Continue Reading

ACC, Pac-12 and SEC player ratings, through Dec. 3

We’re just about one month into the season, and every team has played a handful games already.

That means we have a decent sample size to evaluate players by the Total Impact Quotient rating system. We broke out the first set of 2011-12 player ratings a couple of weeks ago, starting with the Bigs — the Big 12, Big East and Big Ten conferences. We’re going with the other power conferences in this edition: the ACC, Pac-12 and SEC.

If you’re new to the TIQ, please check out our full description about the player rating system. It takes into account a whole bunch of stats that players put up and boils them down into a single number. … Continue Reading

Player rankings for the Big 12, Big East and Big Ten

Each week, we’ll update the Total Impact Quotient ratings for three major conferences. We’ll put it out there right now — we’d love to have player ratings for every conference, but this system is quite time-consuming to produce and we’re relying on manual data collection and analysis to make this happen. So there’s no disrespect for other conferences, just focusing on the big guys first. And that stars with the Big 12, Big East and Big Ten, with the ACC, Pac-12 and SEC coming next week.

That said, we’ve got some fairly expected results here in addition to the unexpected. For example, who would guessed that after about a week, Kansas’ Kevin Young would have the biggest impact per 40 minutes of any Jayhawk? But that’s the kind of TIQ that a player can post when he shoots 6-of-8 from the field in 16 minutes … Continue Reading

Red Storm Prey on Freshman Mistakes

With seven freshmen and nine newcomers on the roster, St. John’s will probably suffer through a fair share of mistakes made by inexperienced players this season. But on opening night, the Red Storm thrived off the miscues of an opponent’s young point guard.

St. John’s overcame a rough first half in which the Red Storm fell behind William & Mary by seven points. After the break, St. John’s amped up the pressure, and the Tribe’s freshman point guard, Marcus Thornton, couldn’t handle it. Thornton finished with seven of William & Mary’s 21 turnovers.

Sophomore Juco transfer Nurideen Lindsey was a frequent tormentor of Thornton. One of the Red Storm’s much-heralded newcomers, Lindsey did a little bit of everything, … Continue Reading

TIQ Player Ratings Reveal Top Returning Talent

It’s good to be a fan in the Midwest, if the top returning players according to the Total Impact Quotient ratings mean anything.

As we prepare for the 2011-12 season, let’s take a look back at the top players from the 2010-11 season. To tally the top 50, I added the top players in various statistical categories to the list of players from major conferences. That adds the likes of Cleveland State’s Norris Cole, College of Charleston’s Andrew Goudelock and Morehead State’s Kenneth Faried to a list that predictably includes Kyrie Irving, Kemba Walker and Derrick Williams. … Continue Reading

Hoopville Unveils the 2nd Generation of the TIQ Player Rating System

Hoopville has a new and improved Total Impact Quotient player ratings ready for the 2011-12 season. This might be the most logical rating system we’ve seen for NCAA players, and it has massive advantages over last season’s version.

During the off-season, I grabbed a few books about player rating systems, focusing mostly on John Hollinger‘s “Pro Basketball Forecast” and Dean Oliver‘s “Basketball on Paper.” Armed with those books and a notepad, a couple of cross-country flights felt like short bus rides rather than five-hour journeys cramped into a seat with inadequate leg room for a 6’3” numbers nerd. I feel personally indebted to Oliver, who saved me from an unwanted conversation with an anti-Obama religious conservative from Pensacola, Fla., who seemed determined to lecture me on stock options and/or the likelihood that a Jew marrying a Buddhist would likely end poorly. Give me Advanced Basketball Stats 201 any day of the week. … Continue Reading

ACC Player Rankings 2.0

Within two weeks, the ACC will enter the grind of the conference schedule. Florida State enters conference play as a favorite to finish near the top, and a recently improved offense will be critical to making that happen.

The rise of Florida State’s offense has coincided with a dip in the impact of the Se♦minoles’ best player: Chris Singleton. In the first eight games, only two opponents cracked 60 points, and Singleton ranked as one of the best forwards in the conference with a Total Impact Quotient of 18.1 points. Three weeks later, Singleton’s TIQ has dipped by more than three points, but Florida State has scored more than 70 points in all six games after failing to do so in the previous three. … Continue Reading

Big Ten Player Rankings 2.0

It might not be possible to overhype freshman phenom Jared Sullinger.

Ohio State is already in the top five in the polls, and Sullinger is a favorite for top honors among freshmen this season, so it’s not like Sullinger and the Buckeyes are under the radar. And his stats clearly make him a candidate to finish the season as a first-team All-American.

Sullinger started the season with a bang, posting back-to-back double doubles, including 26 points and 10 rebounds at Florida. But in recent weeks, Sullinger has been even better and more important to the Buckeyes. Veterans like William Buford have struggled a little from the field, but Sullinger remains ruthlessly efficient, shooting nearly 60 percent from the field. … Continue Reading

Big East Player Rankings 2.0

In the first update of the Big East player rankings this season, using the Total Impact Quotient, we find Kemba Walker continuing to play at an outrageously high level, while Pittsburgh is building a team that looks like a champion.

As mentioned in our first rankings for Big East players this season, Walker is on pace to post a better TIQ for guards than anyone did last season. The biggest question is whether he can maintain his hot start. In the past three weeks, Walker has made an even bigger contribution in his total impact in points per 40 minutes, elevating his TIQ by 1.4 points. … Continue Reading

Pac-10 Player Rankings 2.0

In recent weeks, the Pac-10 has fallen on some tough times. The conference’s 10 teams have dropped 18 games this month, including an 0-2 record against Montana.

One cause for the recent struggles has been poor guard play. Of the six power conferences, the Pac-10′s guards already had the lowest average Total Impact Quotient of 6.2. In the past three weeks, that rating has fallen to 5.8. The Pac-10′s best guard, Trent Lockett, wouldn’t rank in the Big East’s top six.

So with conference play quickly approaching, look for the teams with the steadiest guards to have an advantage. That means Washington State could be poised to surprise some people, with Marcus Capers and Klay Thompson leading the way. The two Cougars are right behind Lockett in TIQ rankings among Pac-10 guards. … Continue Reading

Big 12 Player Rankings

It sounds counterintuitive, but Kansas State isn’t hurting without last season’s assist leader and second-leading scorer, Denis Clemente.

The senior graduated in May after helping Kansas State to its most successful season in recent memory. Clemente averaged 16.6 points and 4.2 assists per game. But his poor shooting lowered the ceiling on his Total Impact Quotient, giving Clemente a 2.4 TIQ rating for the season.

This season, Jacob Pullen has assumed the point guard duties, and he’s handling them fairly well. His turnovers are up while his shooting percentage is a little down. But Pullen remains a complete player, leading the team in scoring, assists and steals. He’s also a strong rebounder for a guard, averaging 3.7 rebounds per game. In sum, his TIQ is 8.7. … Continue Reading

SEC Player Rankings

All John Calipari does is load teams with winners.

Or at least, so it would seem. The Kentucky coach brought John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, Eric Bledsoe and Daniel Orton to the Wildcats last season, and they delivered a dominant season and Elite Eight run. This season, Calipari imported Brandon Knight, Terrence Jones, Doron Lamb and Josh Harrelson to keep the Wildcats on top of the SEC and in the discussion for a national championship. … Continue Reading

Florida State Sets the Mark for Defensive Domination

It’s final exam time in Tallahassee, as Florida State takes the week off before opening ACC play against Clemson Dec. 12.

The Seminoles already have one grade in for the semester: an A+ in Epic Defensive Mastery.

At 6-2, Florida State appears to be a legitimate contender for a top-third finish in the ACC this season. But the team’s success will hinge almost entirely on a defense that is historically good. According to Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency ratings, Florida State is No. 1 so far, allowing only 0.819 points per possession. If the Seminoles can maintain that pace, Florida State would have the most efficient defense in the nine-year history of Pomeroy’s statistics.

That feat is more impressive when considering that Florida State lost its defensive centerpiece last season when Solomon Alabi took his 2.3 blocks and 6.2 rebounds per game to the NBA. In his place, junior Chris Singleton has emerged as possibly the most dominant defensive player in the country. He has nearly doubled his blocks per game to 2.8 and is sixth in the nation with 3.3 steals per game. Singleton aggressively seeks loose balls, too, collecting 9.4 rebounds per game.

Although Singleton is only an average shooter (44.3 percent from the field), he offers the total package. Singleton’s production has yielded a Total Impact Quotient of 18.1, good for fourth among ACC forwards. But he has played at least two-thirds more minutes than any of the forwards ranked ahead of him.

Through the first eight games, Singleton has helped Florida State hold six opponents to less than 60 points. That’s even more impressive when you consider that the Seminoles don’t slow down the game. According to Pomeroy’s stats, Florida State plays the No. 62 — out of 345 teams — fastest tempo in Division I. The math doesn’t lie: Florida State is one great defensive squad.

Now it’s obviously way too early to crown Florida State with anything. The Seminoles have dominated opponents whose sum offensive firepower ranks No. 205 in Pomeroy’s stats. Let’s see how the Seminoles fare against ACC opponents, starting with the Tigers this weekend.

With Singleton leading the opponent oppression, there’s a good chance that Florida State remains near the top of defensive rankings all season, and the Seminoles end up in contention for an NCAA Tournament bid.

ACC Player Ratings

A month into this season, it’s obvious that Duke is the class of the ACC by a wide margin.

The reigning national champs are off to an 8-0 start, and freshman guard Kyrie Irving is a major reason for the Blue Devils’ early season success against the likes of Kansas State, Marquette, Michigan State and Butler. He has a Total Impact Quotient of 14.3, which is exceptionally good for a guard and ranks No. 3 among ACC guards.

Perhaps the biggest surprise to Duke’s start is forward Kyle Singler’s diminished impact on the team’s success. How is that possible for a player averaging 15.6 points and 5.4 rebounds per game and shooting 89.3 percent from the free throw line? In short, Singler’s TIQ has dropped from a better-than-average 10.0 to a subpar 3.3.

The explanation for Singler’s drop in TIQ is straightforward: Duke really is a better team this season than last season. The Blue Devils are shooting 49.3 percent from the field compared to 44.3 percent last season. However, Singler is only shooting 43.9 percent this season, the only Duke starter to hit less than 50 percent of his shots. So Singler’s shooting struggle relative to his teammates’ success is costing the Blue Devils points. In addition, Singler’s stats for rebounds and assists have dropped. The drop in assists makes sense with the arrival of Irving, a supremely talented play maker.

What that all means is that Duke is better even though Singler is making less of an impact on each game. And that’s just scary.

For a complete introduction to the TIQ rating system, check out this list of frequently asked questions.

And now on to the ratings for the ACC, through games as of Saturday, Dec. 4.

TIQ position averages:
Centers: 13.9
Forwards: 9.2
Guards: 6.3
TIQ = Total Impact Quotient
PD% = Position differential in % difference from average

Player Rankings

Player Rankings for 2009-10

Big Ten Player Ratings

For a top five team, Ohio State surprisingly doesn’t have a player who is totally dominant at his position.

The Buckeyes are a well-balanced team that excels on defense. They have a mix of veterans like Jon Diebler and David Lighty to go with super-talented freshmen like Jared Sullinger. But no Buckeye ranks in the top five at his position in the Big Ten in the Total Impact Quotient.

Instead, the Buckeyes show how total balance delivers exceptional results. The team’s top seven players in minutes all rank in the top 30 in TIQ among their fellow Big Ten guards and forwards. Sullinger is the highest ranked player, at No. 7 among forwards. But unlike other teams that lean heavily on one or two stars, Ohio State can turn to any one of several weapons to lead the team any given night.

And this Ohio State team is improving. The top four returning players — Jon Diebler, David Lighty, William Buford and Dallas Lauderdale — are all making a more significant impact this season. With the departure of Evan Turner to the NBA, Ohio State has morphed from a team with a bunch of players who revolve around one superstar to a team that has a bunch of solid players who fill specific roles consistently and productively. That is a recipe for success, especially in March and April.

For a complete introduction to the TIQ rating system, check out this list of frequently asked questions.

And now on to the ratings for the Big Ten, through games as of Saturday, Dec. 4.

TIQ position averages:
Centers: 11.5
Forwards: 10.2
Guards: 6.7
TIQ = Total Impact Quotient
PD% = Position differential in % difference from average

Player Rankings

Player Rankings for 2009-10

Pac-10 Player Ratings

The Pac-10 took a lot of heat last season for its underwhelming play for much of the season. But in the NCAA Tournament, No. 11-seed Washington turned on the jets and sprinted past Marquette and New Mexico before losing a tight game to West Virginia in the Sweet 16.

This season, the Huskies appear poised to make another run in the NCAA Tournament, albeit as a better seed. Washington has three players ranked among the best at their position in the Pac-10, and two of them aren’t even primary contributors. Justin Holiday is the biggest factor, ranking No. 5 among Pac-10 forwards with a 15.3 Total Impact Quotient. He logs 26.4 minutes per game for Washington.

Meanwhile, a couple of newcomers provide excellent relief off the bench. Freshman guard C.J. Wilcox is playing exceptionally well, with a 19.3 TIQ. If he were to maintain that level, he’d have the highest TIQ of any guard of the past two seasons, even ahead of Connecticut’s Kemba Walker. The secret to Wilcox’s success is efficiency. The young gun is averaging nearly nine points in only 13 minutes per game. Plus he’s good in every phase of the game, with 11 three-pointers, 14 rebounds, nine assists, two blocks and two steals in only five games.

If Wilcox continues to play so well, coach Lorenzo Romar will have to give him more playing time. It’s unlikely Wilcox could maintain such an insane TIQ, but even a slight dip would likely deliver excellent results for the Huskies, who also get plenty of help from sophomore Aziz N’Diaye. The big man ranks as the top Pac-10 center with a 22.6 TIQ.

N’Diaye’s rating is the product of his proficiency on the boards. He has collected 35 rebounds, including 15 at the offensive end. That’s a big deal because the Huskies have been on fire to start this season, so extending the possession is hugely beneficial. At the other end, N’Diaye leads the team with 11 blocks despite playing only 17.6 minutes per game.

Here are the top players by position in the Pac-10, followed by the team-by-team breakdown. If you’d like an explanation for how we calculate the Total Impact Quotient, check out our thorough introduction to the rating system.

All numbers are through Sunday, Nov. 28.

TIQ position averages:
Centers: 11.3
Forwards: 10.4
Guards: 6.2

TIQ = Total Impact Quotient
PD% = Position differential in % difference from average

Player Rankings

Player Rankings for 2009-10

Big East Player Ratings

After three weeks, Connecticut’s Kemba Walker is playing out of his mind. And the Total Impact Quotient backs up what is patently obvious to the likes of Michigan State and Kentucky: Walker is for real.

Although we’re working with a pretty small sampling of games, Walker has a 17.1 TIQ, which is ridiculously good for guards. He’s 140.8 percent better than the Big East average for guards. In fact, he’s got a TIQ better than any guard from last season. He’s on pace to finish with numbers that rival speed demon Ty Lawson (16.9 TIQ) from North Carolina’s championship team in 2009.

Of course, we’ll see if he can keep it up. If he does, Connecticut looks like a serious threat to compete for the Big East title, especially with forward Alex Oriakhi playing at a high level, too.

Here are the top players by position in the Big East, followed by the team-by-team breakdown. If you’d like an explanation for how we calculate the Total Impact Quotient, check out our thorough introduction to the rating system.

All numbers are through Sunday, Nov. 28.

TIQ position averages:
Centers: 11.3
Forwards: 10.8
Guards: 7.1

TIQ = Total Impact Quotient
PD% = Position differential in % difference from average

Player Rankings

Player Rankings for 2009-10