In a time of tribulation, college hoops shows the good in sports

The Jimmy V Classic couldn’t have come at a more necessary time this year.

College sports have had a rough run in recent months. Throughout the summer, fans had to try to figure out which conference their favorite team would be playing in when all the moving and shaking subsides. The motivation for conference realignment is all about the dollar bills, often at the expense of any sport not named football — and with little consideration for rivalries that make sports thrilling to watch and play.

But conference realignment was utterly benign compared to the chaos that erupted in State College, Pa., when one of the NCAA’s premier football programs crumbled under the weight of allegation after allegation of sexual misconduct by Jerry Sandusky, a former coordinator. Exacerbating the situation, coach Joe Paterno and Penn State officials appear to have covered up the activities, and it cost one of college football’s legends his job.

Then scandal crept into college hoops, at another sacred program. Coach Jim Boeheim has built Syracuse into a top program, and he relied on his top assistant, Bernie Fine, to help get the Orange there. But allegations of sexual abuse have surrounded Fine, and university officials fired him. Syracuse has received plenty of criticism for possibly failing to do enough to report the rumors of the abuse to police nearly 10 years ago, and Boeheim passionately defended his friend and assistant when ESPN first reported the allegations. He has had to backtrack from those statements, and some experts are calling for his ouster.

Yuck.

With such greed and alleged corruption percolating in college sports, it’d be easy to become disillusioned.

But resist the urge. Or to put it another way: “Don’t ever give up.”

Former NC State coach Jim Valvano made that phrase the motto of the foundation named for him after he died of cancer in 1993. Since his death, ESPN has partnered with the Jimmy V Foundation to raise funds for cancer research. The money goes directly to research, and it goes to a broad range of medical experts toiling to find a cure, not just for popular causes such as breast or prostate cancer but also rarer cancers that have a far worse death rate.

The annual Jimmy V Classic serves as a forum for ESPN to reach a national audience to urge donations, in addition to showcasing a few of the country’s best teams. If that’s not a great role for sports in U.S. society, I don’t know what is.

We go coast to coast with other news from the college basketball nation

Utah doesn’t have a Division I win yet on the season, and the Utes could struggle some more to pick that up after indefinitely suspending Josh Watkins, according to the Associated Press. Watkins has been Utah’s best player by far, averaging 17.7 ppg and 4.9 apg.

Things aren’t much better for one of the Utes’ biggest rivals, the Utah State Aggies. Diamond Leung, of ESPN.com’s “College Basketball Nation” blog, writes that Brady Jardine could be out all season after injuring his foot Nov. 19 in the team’s win against Southern Utah. Jardine is one of the team’s top rebounders, averaging 7.7 rpg.

West Virginia v. the Big East continues to froth in the legal system, with the Big East’s lawyers moving for a dismissal of West Virginia’s lawsuit attempting to get the Mountaineers out of the conference and into the Big 12 ahead of the Big East’s mandatory 27-month waiting period, according to the Associated Press’ Vicki Smith.

We don’t place a ton of stock in the polls in general, but Harvard’s arrival this week is newsworthy. As CBS Sports.com reports, it’s the first time that the Crimson have ever appeared in the top 25, and they are the first Ivy League team to reach the polls since Princeton in 1998.

Games to watch Tuesday

• Missouri vs. Villanova, 7 pm EST (Jimmy V Classic)
• George Mason at Virginia, 7 pm EST
• Kent State at James Madison, 7 pm EST
• Robert Morris at Duquesne, 7 pm EST
• Iowa at Northern Iowa, 8 pm EST
• Washington vs. Marquette, 9 pm EST (Jimmy V Classic)
• Long Beach State at Kansas, 9 pm EST
• Memphis at Miami, 9 pm EST

Bracket Breakdown: Which Teams Rose and Fell?

When Texas reached No. 1 in the polls in mid-January, the Longhorns looked like a lock to cruise to a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Fans and experts were eagerly awaiting Texas’ clash with Kansas in Austin, which many figured could determine the overall No. 1 seed.

However, the Longhorns fell into a tailspin and finished the season by losing nine of 16 games. Instead of receiving a No. 1 seed, Texas will have to face a No. 1 seed in the second round. The selection committee gave the disintegrating Longhorns a No. 8 seed in the East region. The Longhorns will face No. 9 Wake Forest in New Orleans with a possible second-round match up against No. 1 Kentucky. That’s a dramatic fall in less than two months.

A few other teams appeared on pace for great seeds before faltering down the stretch.

• Purdue fell to No. 4 after remaining in consideration for a No. 1 seed as recently as two weeks ago. The loss of forward Robbie Hummel might derail the Boilermakers’ Final Four aspirations.
• Wake Forest lost five of its final six games, including an opening-round ACC tournament game to No. 12-seed Miami. As a result, the selection committee dropped the Demon Deacons to a No. 9 seed, which could be considered generous.
• Utah State looked to be in contention for a No. 8 or 9 seed before losing the WAC championship game to New Mexico State. The selection committee gave Utah State a No. 12 seed as a result.
• Tennessee has wins against Kansas and Kentucky this season, but the Volunteers’ last game was a 30-point drubbing to the Wildcats in the SEC tournament. A lack of other quality wins and that blowout led to the Volunteers falling to a No. 6 seed.

While some teams played their way down to worse seeds, a few other stormed through February and early March to rise in seeding. Notre Dame is the most notable ascender because the Fighting Irish were barely in bubble contention when superstar Luke Harangody went down to injury. But the Irish found a way to rattle off six straight wins before falling to West Virginia in the Big East tournament semifinals. That win streak included upsets of Pittsburgh — twice — Georgetown, Connecticut and Marquette. The streak added several great wins to a profile that already featured a marquee win in South Bend against West Virginia. The late season resurgence delivered Notre Dame an invitation to the NCAA Tournament as a No. 6 seed, one of the most remarkable late-season charges in recent years.

Here are some of the other late bloomers.

• En route to a No. 3 seed, Georgetown also had a late run in the Big East with wins against Cincinnati, Syracuse and Marquette.
• Before losing to Georgia Tech in the ACC tournament quarterfinals, Maryland had won nine of 10 games, including a huge victory against Duke in College Park and road wins at Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina State and Florida State. The selection committee gave the ACC co-champion a No. 4 seed.
• Ohio State enters the NCAA Tournament as a No. 2 seed thanks to a sensational finish in which the Buckeyes won 13 of their last 14 games, including three wins against Illinois and solid victories against Minnesota and Michigan State.

Bracket Breakdown: Utah Might Be Home to This Season’s George Mason

Four years ago, George Mason delivered one of the most remarkable NCAA Tournament performances in history when the Patriots reached the Final Four, knocking off heavyweights like Michigan State, North Carolina and Connecticut in the process. The storm clouds of major upsets appear to be gathering once again, and this year’s bracket busters might hail from the Beehive State, better known as Utah.

Besides George Mason’s unlikely run, 2006 also saw LSU reach the Final Four as a No. 4 seed, and all four No. 1 seeds failed to make it past the Elite Eight. No. 3-seed Florida emerged as a worthy champion by dominating George Mason, whose clock had struck midnight, and No. 2-seed UCLA. Of millions of part-time bracket experts, how many picked even three out of the eventual Final Four? Was the success of Florida and George Mason totally unpredictable?

In retrospect, the 2006 madness was not totally surprising. That field had some of the worst top seeds of any NCAA Tournament since 2004, based on Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency ratings. In the past 10 years, 80 percent of all Final Four participants have been No. 1, 2 or 3 seeds. With 20 percent of the Final Four participants seeded No. 4 or worse, it shouldn’t seem all that surprising when one reaches the Final Four. But upon closer inspection, those teams tend to crash the Final Four in tandem every few years. Seven of the eight teams seeded No. 4 or worse reached the Final Four in three tournaments: 2000, 2005 and 2006.

In 2006, the 12 No. 1, 2 and 3 seeds formed one of the worst sets of top teams of the 72 teams that had those seeds since 2004. Of those 72 teams, none of the 2006 top seeds had an offensive efficiency ranked in the top 23. Four of the teams counted among the six worst offenses, based on efficiency. And Memphis had the second-worst offensive efficiency of any No. 1 seed since 2004.

And those top seeds weren’t especially proficient on defense either. Only one top seed ranked among the top 14 in defensive efficiency. That team, Iowa, was the most unbalanced top-seeded team since 2004, and No. 14-seed Northwestern State capitalized on the Hawkeyes’ disproportionate attack by producing one of the biggest first-round upsets of the decade. Although Iowa was great on defense, No. 3-seed Gonzaga and No. 2-seed Tennessee were borderline miserable. Perhaps not surprisingly, the Volunteers lost to No. 7-seed Wichita State in the second round. Adam Morrison’s Bulldogs made it to the Sweet 16 with the most efficient offense of 2006 before running into the stifling defense of UCLA.

As conference tournaments come to a close this season, only two teams — Kansas and Duke —have the offensive and defensive efficiency ratings that should scare opponents. Their efficiency ratings most closely resemble the profiles of seven other teams seeded No. 1, 2 or 3 since 2004. Of those seven teams, five made the Final Four, and two won the national championship.That’s not to say that the Jayhawks and Blue Devils are a shoo-in, but they look like good bets to reach the Final Four.

However, outside Duke and Kansas, most of the rest of the top teams have weaknesses. None of the other top teams would rank among the top 32 teams seeded No. 1, 2 or 3 since 2004 in offensive efficiency. If Kentucky earns a No. 1 seed, the Wildcats would have the third-worst offensive efficiency of any No. 1 seed since 2004. Purdue and Pittsburgh are even less efficient on offense and would rank among the worst of the top seeds.

This year’s field also looks suspect on defense. Three of the four teams likely to be No. 3 seeds — New Mexico, Villanova and Pittsburgh — have defenses that would rank among the bottom 20 percent of top seeds since 2004. No defense would crack the top 20.

With a large gap in efficiency between Kansas and Duke and the rest of the top teams, the 2010 NCAA Tournament could produce another wild ride in which a No. 4 seed or lower reaches the Final Four. And if you’re looking to spot the LSU/George Mason duo of 2010, look no further than Utah, home of Utah State and BYU.

The Aggies and Cougars have the efficiency profiles of teams that are just waiting to take advantage of a favorable draw in the tournament. Both teams rank among the top 15 in offensive efficiency. BYU also is in the top 15 for defensive efficiency. In addition to having great teams, one of them could easily have the luxury of playing regional games in Salt Lake City. Although the selection committee will protect better seeds from an unfavorable location in the first and second rounds, the committee doesn’t make the same considerations for Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games.

Utah State has a particularly dangerous profile for a team likely to be seeded No. 9 or worse. The Aggies are excellent shooters, both from three-point territory and inside the arc. Although they hit 42.2 percent of their three-point attempts, they don’t rely on the long ball for scoring, getting 28.0 percent of their scoring from behind the arc, which is in the middle of the pack among Division I teams. Utah State plays a slow-paced game and doesn’t turn the b all over. They also don’t allow opponents to grab offensive rebounds. For underdogs, each possession matters, and Utah State is accustomed to playing that way already.

BYU has a remarkably similar profile for a team that plays at nearly the exact opposite tempo. Projected to be about a No. 5 or 6 seed, the Cougars like to get up the court and rank in the top 20 for tempo this season. They shoot 41.6 percent from three-point range and 51.7 percent from inside the arc. Like the Aggies, the Cougars are one of the best teams in the nation at avoiding turnovers and collecting defensive rebounds. BYU also is good at forcing turnovers, ranking in the top 10 percent at forcing opponents to make mistakes. With the team’s excellent shooting and pressure defense, the Cougars have the firepower necessary to rally if necessary or extend a lead if a better-seeded opponent starts to panic.

It has been four years since a team seeded worse than No. 3 has reached the Final Four. Cinderella seemed content to head home early and watch the best teams compete for the national championship with the rest of us. Will this year mark Cinderella’s return to college basketball’s biggest stage? LIke many other optimistic tourney teams, Utah State and BYU hope they can pull off a fairy tale run that culminates with a trip to Indianapolis and the Final Four.

Bracket Breakdown: Three Conference Tournaments That Bubble Teams Should Fear

Conference tournaments will start in about two weeks, and bubble teams from San Diego State to Connecticut will cross their fingers that the NCAA Tournament-worthy favorites from one-bid conferences take care of business.

Three conference tournaments in particular figure to stress out the fringe tournament teams. The Horizon League, Missouri Valley Conference and Western Athletic Conference have the looks of one-bid conferences. But if those conferences’ leaders fail to receive the automatic bid by winning their conference tournament, they have a good shot of making the tournament with an at-large bid.

Butler is the most comfortable conference leader of the three, as the Bulldogs remain undefeated in the Horizon League. Despite posting only two wins against the RPI top 50, the Bulldogs are ranked No. 17 in the RPI, thanks largely to a non-conference slate ranked No. 14 in difficulty. The good news for bubble teams is that the Horizon League tournament will be in Butler’s backyard in Indianapolis. And Butler has dominated the Horizon League’s most likely threats, beating Cleveland State, Wright State and Green Bay six times by an average of 14 points.

In the Missouri Valley, Northern Iowa has four more conference wins than second-place Wichita State. The Panthers sport a higher RPI than Butler at 15, though that will likely change tomorrow because Northern Iowa dropped a road game to Bradley, only the team’s second loss in conference play. Despite two losses to teams outside the RPI top 100, Northern Iowa still figures to receive an at-large bid if necessary because the team is 22-3 and has two wins against the RPI top 50. However, Northern Iowa’s road to the conference’s automatic bid is tougher than Butler’s. The tournament will be in St. Louis, and the Panthers have not exactly blown out most MIssouri Valley opponents — winning by less than 10 points in six of 13 victories.

Utah State would likely join the bubble if the Aggies lose in the WAC tournament in Reno, Nev. Although the Aggies have the best marquis win of Butler, Northern Iowa and Utah State — against BYU — they also have the most losses, six, including two against teams outside the RPI top 100. Utah State has a respectable strength of schedule hovering around 100, and the Aggies might continue to rise if they finish strongly in the 10th toughest conference. With four home games remaining, the Aggies could easily enter the WAC tournament with 24 wins. However, playing in Reno means the Nevada Wolf Pack will have home-court advantage knowing they must earn the conference’s automatic bid to make the NCAA Tournament. If Utah State loses to the Wolf Pack in the WAC championship game, the conference could end up with two bids in the NCAA Tournament.

With nearly half the Big East on the bubble, several prominent teams, such as Louisville, Connecticut and Marquette, will need to hope that Butler, Northern Iowa and Utah State ensure that seemingly one-bid conferences don’t unexpectedly become two-bid conferences. All three conference favorites will face upset-minded opponents in their tournaments, especially when their opponents know they can only earn an NCAA Tournament bid by receiving an automatic bid.