Missouri 81, Villanova 71

Marquette 79, Washington 77

1. Missouri is good. Very good. The entered the game with a 126 offensive efficiency. Against Villanova, the Tigers put up a very impressive 117. Defensively they allowed a 103 efficiency to Villanova but did force the wildcats into a 22% turnover percentage rate. Frank Haith does not employ a full court pressing defense with this Missouri team. Rather, he’s decided to use a tough man-to-man defense that disrupts offenses an creates turnovers in a half court setting. Offensively he has a solid sharpshooter in Marcus Denmon, a game-high 28 point scorer on 6 of 10 three point shooting. Kim English is a capable guard and scoring threat. At the point Phil Pressey handed out 12 assists while committing just three turnovers in 24 minutes. Inside there is one key player. Ricardo Ratliffe is solid and the 6-8 forward made his presence known against Villanova with a 17 point 11 rebound outing. “Missouri is a tough team,” Villanova coach Jay Wright said. “They are so quick to the ball and rebound very well. They are the type team that can play four guards and be very successful at it.”

2. Villanova will be good. Right now the Wildcats need work and realize it. “A game like this will help us grow,” said junior forward Dominic Cheek. “We will watch tape on this and get back to practice sand get better.” A case in point was the opening of the second half. “We gave Denmon a wide-open three that he hit,” Wright said.”And we let him get loose on a backdoor. Think of that. Two possessions for five points. Down the stretch we still were right there.”

Mouphraou Yarou is solid inside. The junior forward scored 11 points, adding eight rebounds. He needs help in the paint, however. JayVaughn Pinkston, a redshirt freshman, added 10 points and seven rebounds. Pinkston showed some flashes of competence inside but is still a work in progress. “Last year he (Pinkston) was suspended,” Wright said. “He not only lost competition but training because he was working nine hours a day. He’s still rusty.”

Maalik Wayns hit a few threes during the second half Villanova run. Cheek runs the floor and is effective in transition . A freshman guard, Darrun Hilliard, has a nice outside touch and is a player to watch.

The Wildcats, in Wright’s estimation, are on the right track. “It’s almost embarrassing to say after losing by ten but we are getting better,” Wright noted. “We have confidence. We do have room for improvement in a lot of spots but I really like our team. We have a chance to be very good.”

3. Marquette-Washington entertained us. It all came down to the final possession. A last-second Washington shot was off the mark and Marquette held on for a nice intersectional triumph. It was a game with nine ties and 19, yes 19, lead changes. Just moments before the final Husky miss, Jae Crowder of Marquette buried a three for the game winner. It was Crowder’s (18 points) only made trey on the evening.

It was one of those rare games where the Huskies ‘won’ in the efficiency 109-107 but lost the game. Washington had 71 possessions, while Marquette checked in at 74. Terrence Ross (19 points), C.J. Wilcox (15) and Tony Wroten (13) effectively manned the backcourt. The Huskies did not have a solid finisher up front, though the presence of 7-footer Aziz N’Diaye, with his 13 boards and two rejections, was significant.

Marquette lost 7-foot Chris Otule to a knee injury just two minutes into the contest. Coach Buzz Williams felt Otule’s presence would be significant in defending ball screens. Darius Johnson-Odom penetrated well, got out in transition and led all scorers with 23 points. Williams is a tempo free aficionado preaches the value of caring for the ball to his team. Little surprise, Marquette had only 10 turnovers, a sterling 14% TO rate. Washington in contrast checked in with a 23% TO rate. Very significant in a one possession game.

4. Pressure. The window is closing. The Pac 12 may not, probably not, provide Washington with the chance for many signature wins that are needed come Selection Sunday. The Huskies, with this loss fell to 4-3. With Duke coming up at the Garden on Saturday, is there pressure to win that matchup? After Duke, only three home dates, UC Santa Barbara, South Dakota St and Cal State Northridge, remain prior to Pac 12 play. “There is pressure each and every game to be our best,” said Washington coach Lorenzo Romar. “Tonight I thought we played a pretty good game but each game and each practice we put the pressure on ourselves to get better.” Saturday Duke will provide its share as well.

Records: Marquette and Missouri exited MSG with perfect 8-0 slates. Villanova is now 5-3.

Last Year:

21-12 overall, 9-9 Big East (T-9th)

Coach:

Jay Wright (11th season, 224-110)

Projected starting five:

G: Maalik Wayns, Jr.
G: James Bell, So.
F: Dominic Cheek, Jr.
F: Maurice Sutton, Jr.
C: Mouphtaou Yarou, Jr.

Important departures:

Corey Fisher 15.6 ppg, 2.8, rpg, 4.8 apg, 33.4 mpg
Corey Stokes 14.9, 3.3 rpg, 33.0 mpg
Antonio Pena 9.8 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 32.8 mpg

Inside the numbers:

43 percent scoring returning
56 percent rebounding returning

Additions:

G: Tyrone Johnson, 6’3”, 185 – Rivals #52
G: Achraf Yacoubou, 6’3”, 200 – Rivals #126
C: Markus Kennedy, 6’9”, 270

Schedule:

Toughest nonconference game: 12/6 at (25) Missouri
Toughest in-conference stretch: 1/25 – 2/5 at (8) Louisville, vs. (21) Marquette, at (11) Pittsburgh

Prediction:

10th in BE; 20 wins; NCAA Tournament Bubble

What to expect:

Villanova is flying under the radar in the Big East coming into 2011 mostly because of the departure of the Coreys – Corey Fisher and Corey Stokes. The Wildcats also said goodbye to Antonio Pena. Losing three of their top four scorers as well as Isaiah Armwood (transfer), Nova will rely heavily on Maalik Wayns and Mouphtaou Yarou to carry the load.

Welcoming in four new recruits, Villanova does not have a senior on scholarship on their roster. While the future of basketball in Philly looks bright, Wildcat fans should rest assured that Jay Wright should have his team overachieving this year.

Aside from Yarou and Wayns, look for Maurice Sutton and Dominic Cheek to play a lot of minutes. The only question in the starting lineup is who will man the two-guard spot. James Bell looks to be getting the early go-ahead, but incoming freshman Tyrone Johnson and Achraf Yacoubou could be inserted into the lineup as the year goes on.

Next: West Virginia Volunteers

Back to Big East preview

The Semifinal Scores:

Tennessee 77, VCU 72
Villanova 82, UCLA 70

Consolation:
VCU 89, UCLA 85

Final:
Tennessee 78, Villanova 68

Five points of emphasis from the Pre-Season NIT:

1. Tennessee is not only resilient but talented. Despite the ongoing drama in Knoxville regarding coach Bruce pearl, the Volunteers came to New York and just concentrated on one thing: playing basketball at a high level. Pearl commented after the VCU game on what great things the Rams do and how much fun it was preparing for them. The Tennessee coach said the same thing about Villanova. Pearl, quite frankly, wanted to put all of these off the floor issues aside for now. Not dwelling on them does not mean they will go away. But for now Pearl is thrilled to be doing what he loves best: breaking down tapes, planning and preparing with his staff.

2. Villanova needs a plan B, Jay Wright admitted after the Tennessee game. There will not be many nights when Corey Fisher, Maalik Wayns and Corey Stokes for that matter are all shut down and not as effective. But when those days do come, Villanova will have to try a different approach. Admittedly, shutting down the Villanova backcourt like Tennessee did will not happen often. But it could happen in Big East and/or post-season and Wright wants to be prepared. Both nights Mouphtaou Yarou came through for Villanova. He scored in double figures both nights and against UCLA the 6-10 sophomore had 16 rebounds and three blocks. Wright likes Yarou’s defensive presence as it gives the guards the opportunity to defensively gamble knowing there is a “stopper” to guard the basket. His offense, as well as that of Antonio Pena and Dominic Cheek (both had good outings in the final), is going to figure very much into Wright’s plans down the road.

3. VCU will be tough to contend with in the Colonial. They earned a split in New York and showed some impressive attributes both nights out. VCU loves the three-pointers and transition. The uptempo offense of coach Shaka Smart relies on 38 percent of its scoring from beyond the arc. Often these three-point attempts are uncontested as the Rams attempt them in half court or out on the break. Their pace is a rapid 75 possessions per game and they utilize those possessions with a very impressive 111 offensive efficiency. This is a team not wildly running or bombing from three. There is an inside presence in Jamie Skeen. Prior to coming to New York, the 6-9 senior asked his teammates to get him the ball more. “When more is given, more is expected,” Smart said with a biblical theme regarding the request. Skeen delivered both nights, especially with a team-high 23-point outing against UCLA, earning him all-tournament honors. Not the last honor VCU will see this season.

4. UCLA showed heart. Down 15 at the half in the semifinal against top ten Villanova. Three time zones from home. It seemed like a time to think consolation game. To their credit, the Bruins tightened the defense, kept their composure and had it to a two-possession game midway through the final half before Villanova went on a game-sealing run. In the third place game the Bruins competed hard for 40 minutes before dropping a close one to VCU. What the Bruins have to do is avoid slow starts. They suffered through them in both contests in New York. They also need contributions from Malcolm Lee, Tyler Honeycutt and Reeves Nelson on a nightly basis. Against Villanova, Honeycutt (a 15 PPG scorer) came up with only eight points on 3-8 shooting. The Pac-10 is relatively balanced this season. There are games that are “winnable” through extra effort and outplaying opponents. Here UCLA showed the effort. Now if they can avoid those slow starts.

5. Tennessee can defend. Scotty Hopson is a threat on the perimeter or in the paint. Tobias Harris can slash and score. Brian Williams, at 6-10 cleans the offensive glass for put backs. Make no mistake, Bruce Pearl’s club is anything but one-dimensional. The defense by the Vols in the two games was quite impressive. Villanova entered the game with a 119 offensive efficiency, but was held to 93 by an active, harassing Tennessee defense. In fact, Tennessee held both opponents under 100 offensive efficiency as VCU managed just a 90 OE in the semifinals. In the final Hopson bothered the Villanova guards all night with his quickness and length. Villanova did struggle offensively in the championship. Blame that on the Vol defense.

ALL TOURNAMENT:

Jamie Skeen (VCU)
Reeves Nelson (UCLA)
Mouphtaou Yarou (Villanova)
Tobias Harris (Tennessee)
Scotty Hopson (Tennessee) – MVP

On several occasions, Wright said the Wildcats have to get better at one thing or another. It might have been winning a game that’s basically a street fight. It might be playing smarter as well as harder. It might be if they have to go with a bigger lineup for one reason or another. But the theme was clear: the Wildcats need to be better.

The game wasn’t pretty by any stretch of the imagination, and Tennessee set the tone with its aggressive defense. They turned the game into a street fight, the type that Villanova will see a few times in the rough-and-tumble Big East with some of the physical teams there. And the Wildcats’ inability to win it isn’t a good sign early, though they can certainly improve to win these kinds of games later.

“You have to be smart in a street fight also,” said Wright. “I thought they were a little tougher and a little smarter.”

Villanova is known as Guard U, but you wouldn’t have known it on Friday. The area of the stat sheet that will jump out at you right away is what the starting trio of Corey Fisher, Corey Stokes and Maalik Wayns did, or didn’t do. They combined to score 25 points on just 7-30 shooting, including 3-16 from long range. They had six assists and 11 turnovers, and as if that wasn’t bad enough, all three fouled out as well.

Stokes wasn’t willing to outright admit it, but Tennessee’s defensive pressure bothered them. Melvin Goins and Skylar McBee set a tone with the work they did, and the Volunteer defense never let Fisher and Wayns, the two primary ball handlers, get going. The tone was set early as the aforementioned trio was 3-14 in the first half, and it continued in the second.

Fisher had a career-high 26 points two nights earlier against UCLA and leads the team in scoring. On Wednesday, he got to the foul line 15 times, in stark contrast to just two attempts on Friday. His struggles are perhaps the best indicator of what the Volunteers were able to do to the Wildcat guards.

The struggles of the guards leaves an open question for the Wildcats. There is undeniable talent, but also questions from an intangible standpoint. Fisher has always been more of an undersized shooting guard, and now he doesn’t have Scotty Reynolds to take defensive attention away from him. Stokes has been a tease since early in his high school days, possessing undeniable talent and physical gifts but never developing any kind of consistency to where you know what you’ll get from him. He has long been a “potential” player, but at some point a player either reaches their potential or they are who they are. Wayns has plenty of talent and a great feel for the game, and also has leadership abilities. But he’s just a sophomore, and teams don’t tend to look to sophomores for leadership, something that may need to change in this case.

Because the guards were in foul trouble early, Villanova had to go with a bigger lineup for part of the first half. Dominic Cheek actually played reasonably well in a season-high 25 minutes as a big guard, a positive sign for them should they need to sit one of the starters. The focus also had to shift inside, where Antonio Pena (14 points, 8 rebounds) and Mouphtaou Yarou (15 points including 7-9 from the foul line) had good games.

While Wright gave Tennessee credit for its defense and showed a lot of respect for how they played, he knows his team has clear areas for improvement.

“We’re going to have to figure out ways to play bigger when we don’t have those guys in the lineup and play effectively,” Wright said, noting how they weren’t in sync when the guards were in foul trouble. “We have to do a better job of having a big lineup that can play efficiently.”

That was a point he repeated later, driving home the idea that players like Maurice Sutton and Isaiah Armwood are likely to see bigger roles as well. JayVaughn Pinkston is out of action pending a student code of conduct review, but if they get him back he figures to see minutes in the frontcourt as well.

The Wildcats are like many teams across the country in needing to get better at this stage of the season. But their areas for improvement were particularly acute on Friday, and that game highlights the questions this team has going forward.

Syracuse Orange (Overall: 28-4, Big East: 15-3)

No. 1 seed, West Region

The Orange enter the NCAA Tournament as a favorite to contend for the national championship. But they will need to overcome some adversity to work their way through the West Region, even though they are a No. 1 seed. Syracuse will play at least the first weekend without senior Arinze Onuaku, who injured a quad in the Orange’s Big East Tournament loss to Georgetown. The Orange primarily use a seven-man rotation, so the loss of Onuaku makes them dangerously thin against No. 16 Vermont and either No. 8 Gonzaga or No. 9 Florida State.

Despite Onuaku’s loss, Syracuse should be able to get through the first weekend of action, though likely with more difficulty than originally anticipated. Syracuse’s offense will continue to roll along as one of the most efficient offenses in the country, according to Ken Pomeroy’s statistics. Guards Wes Johnson and Andy Rautins fuel the No. 9 offense in the country. Both are tall guards — at 6-7, Johnson is more of a swingman — and present match up problems for opponents. They each shoot better than 39 percent from three-point range and combine to average 27.7 points per game.

However, Syracuse is not unbeatable, as Louisville proved twice this season. The Orange give up a lot of offensive rebounds because they play the 2-3 zone nearly exclusively. That scheme makes it more difficult to box out opponents. And offensively, Syracuse has a bad habit of turning the ball over.

Syracuse won’t meet a team until at least the Sweet 16 that can take advantage of those weaknesses. And that team is No. 13-seed Murray State, which would be overmatched offensively. However, if Onuaku remains out and the Racers find a way to get past No. 4-seed Vanderbilt and Butler/UTEP, Murray State has an excellent chance to shock the Orange.

Most likely, Syracuse will reach the Elite Eight, where the Orange’s run through the tournament will come to an abrupt halt. Three likely opponents — No. 2-seed Kansas State, No. 3-seed Pittsburgh and No. 7-seed BYU — all have the type of profile that would give the Orange fits.

Kansas State can rebound well and plays a fast-paced, intense game that would prevent Syracuse from stalling the Wildcats’ offense. Pittsburgh already has one win against the Orange this season. And BYU shoots 43 percent from three-point range and plays at one of the fastest paces in the country. The Cougars will try to beat Syracuse’s defense down the floor to prevent the Orange from setting up the 2-3 zone. And if they have to play in the half court, the Cougars can shoot over the zone.

West Virginia Mountaineers (Overall: 27-6, Big East 13-5)

No. 2 seed, East Region

The Mountaineers are one of the trendy picks to reach the Final Four as a No. 2 seed. And why not? West Virginia has five wins against teams seeded No. 1-3. The Mountaineers already have proven that they can beat anybody.

The key to West Virginia’s success is methodical offense, stout defense and better effort than their opponents’. A trio of players averages at least 11 points and six rebounds per game, led by senior Da’Sean Butler’s 17.4 points and 6.3 rebounds per game. Butler proved in the Big East Tournament that he is a clutch player who can hit game-winning shots when needed. And West Virginia might need those services once or twice if West Virginia wants to reach the Final Four.

West Virginia’s weakness is flat-out ugly shooting. The Mountaineers shoot 48.8 percent from inside the arc, 33.6 percent from three-point range, and 69.6 percent from the free throw line. And West Virginia’s defense allows opponents to put up nearly identical numbers. The difference is that West Virginia is second-best in the country at collecting offensive rebounds, and the Mountaineers are among the top third in grabbing defensive rebounds. All of West Virginia’s starters are at least 6-7, except point guard Darryl “Truck” Bryant.

West Virginia should have no troubles against its first two opponents. In the Sweet 16, No. 3-seed New Mexico could present problems. The Lobos are No. 5 in the country at gathering defensive rebounds, and they shoot well from three-point range. New Mexico also doesn’t commit turnovers. If West Virginia faces New Mexico, they’ll lose. But the Mountaineers look like they might catch a break thanks to a tough second-round draw for the Lobos, and West Virginia should make it to the Elite Eight.

In the Elite Eight, West Virginia will either step up its offensive game or lose to No. 4-seed Wisconsin, which has the talent and offensive skills to get past tough defenses like Temple and Kentucky. The Badgers play as slow as West Virginia does and are more efficient on offense. That spells trouble for a team that doesn’t shoot well. Because Wisconsin isn’t concerned about setting up fast breaks, the entire team crashes the boards, which would neutralize West Virginia’s strength. Somewhat counterintuitively, the Mountaineers want the top seed, Kentucky, to reach the Elite Eight because that would present a much easier match up. But it’s not going to happen.

Villanova Wildcats (Overall: 24-7, Big East: 13-5)

No. 2 seed, South Region

Villanova is in trouble. The No. 2 seed in the South Region started the season 20-1 before losing six of its final 10 games. Three of the four wins came against teams that aren’t playing in the NCAA Tournament. Opponents started to figure out that the Wildcats’ defense is vulnerable to attacking offenses. Villanova is one of the most foul-prone teams in the tournament.

Villanova’s defensive liability will likely rear its head sooner rather than later because No. 7-seed Richmond and No. 10-seed Saint Mary’s will have match up advantages that will lead to an upset. The Wildcats have one of the most efficient offenses in the country, which will keep them in the game. And senior Scottie Reynolds is one of the most clutch players in the country, shooting better than 54 percent from the field and 39 percent from three-point range. But Richmond and Saint Mary’s have the height to frustrate Villanova’s outside shooters. And both teams shoot free throws well, which will likely be the deciding factor in a major second-round upset.

Pittsburgh Panthers (Overall: 24-8, Big East: 13-5)

No. 3 seed, West Region

For the Panthers, the West Region’s No. 3 seed, success will come slowly — literally. The Panthers average only 62 possessions per game, one of the slowest tempos in the country. After bleeding some of the clock, the Panthers are usually efficient on offense, even though they don’t shoot particularly well inside or outside the arc.

The team’s most critical player is sophomore Ashton Gibbs, who leads the team with 15.8 points per game. He is the team’s lone three-point threat, and he makes 40.2 percent of his three-point attempts. Joining Gibbs in the backcourt, Jermaine Dixon and Brad Wannamaker are a pair of seasoned guards who can help Pitt control the pace.

To beat Pittsburgh, an opponent needs to put pressure on a sometimes stagnant offense, force a faster tempo, deny second-chance points by grabbing rebounds, and play solid interior defense. That’s a lot to ask of an opponent, but the Panthers might face a few teams that meet that profile, starting with No. 6-seed Xavier in the second round. The Panthers find a way past the Musketeers before falling to No. 2-seed Kansas State or No. 7-seed BYU in the Sweet 16.

Georgetown Hoyas (Overall: 23-10, Big East: 10-8)

No. 3 seed, Midwest Region

The Hoyas are one of the more dangerous teams in the tournament, as they proved at Madison Square Garden when they beat Syracuse and Marquette before losing to West Virginia in the Big East championship game. But Georgetown is the No. 3 seed in the Midwest Region. Although the Hoyas have the offense to hang with top-seeded Kansas, they don’t have a good enough defense. And Georgetown turns the ball a little too often to seriously threaten Kansas. Of course, that would assume the Hoyas can get past No. 2-seed Wisconsin.

Georgetown excels at finding good shots, thanks to sophomore center Greg Monroe. The big man looks like a surefire top five lottery pick in this year’s NBA Draft, and Hoya fans hope he can help deliver a deep NCAA Tournament run before moving to the pros. With Monroe as the centerpiece of the offense, Georgetown shoots 54.6 percent inside the arc. Led by newly diagnosed diabetic Austin Freeman, Georgetown’s perimeter players shoot 38.8 percent from three-point range.

Despite the presence of Monroe on defense, the Hoyas aren’t great at stopping opponents. That likely won’t be a problem until Georgetown reaches Ohio State in the Sweet 16. Led by Evan Turner, the Buckeyes have the offensive efficiency needed to hang with Georgetown. And because Ohio State forces a significant number of turnovers, Georgetown’s tournament run will unravel in St. Louis.

Marquette Golden Eagles (Overall: 22-11, Big East 11-7)

No. 6 seed, East Region

It’s hard to tell whether Marquette will win more than a game or two — or any — in the tournament. But it is almost certain that the No. 6 seed in the East Region will be involved in some great finishes.

In four out of five of Marquette’s final regular-season games, the Golden Eagles had to work overtime, winning three of them. The Golden Eagles played 16 games in which the final margin was five points or less. That’s nearly half the team’s games. However, Marquette won only half those tight games.

For the most part, Marquette doesn’t beat itself, committing the fifth-fewest turnovers in the country. With a guard-oriented lineup, the Golden Eagles rely heavily on three-point shooting. But they’re good at it, hitting 40.6 percent from three-point range. As often happens to guard-heavy teams, Marquette struggles to get rebounds.

That could pose an immediate problem against No. 11-seed Washington. The Huskies are hot as winners of seven consecutive games. And they are good at rebounding. Washington crashes the offensive glass, often successfully. In addition, the Huskies don’t commit many turnovers. Washington has a more balanced offensive and defensive attack than Marquette, and if the Huskies can control the pace, they’ll upset Marquette.

Despite a strong season, Marquette will fall to a Washington team that has an experienced starting cast that will dictate the pace.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Overall: 23-11, Big East: 10-8)

No. 6 seed, South Region

Notre Dame stormed through the final weeks of the regular season, much of that without Luke Harangody, to earn an NCAA Tournament bid. Their run impressed the selection committee, which rewarded the Fighting Irish with a No. 6 seed in the South Region. Frankly, that’s too good of a seed for this team, despite victories against Pittsburgh (twice), Georgetown and Marquette in the past three weeks.

Meanwhile, Notre Dame’s first-round opponent, No. 11-seed Old Dominion, is probably better than that seeding. This match up could easily be a No. 8 seed vs. No. 9 seed, which would be considered a toss up. With that in mind, it’s not surprising that Old Dominion has an excellent shot to beat the heavily imbalanced Irish. Notre Dame has the No. 4 offense in efficiency but the No. 140 defense. That defensive ranking has improved since Harangody’s injury and subsequent reduced role. But the team’s offense has also leveled off a little, too.

For its part, Old Dominion has the No. 16 defense and No. 72 offense. That’s not great balance, but it’s better than Notre Dame. Plus Old Dominion has a tall lineup anchored by senior center Gerald Lee, who should cause fits for the Fighting Irish. Old Dominion leads Division I in offensive rebounding, which should continue against Notre Dame. The Irish like to mix a health dose of zone coverage into their defensive sets.

These teams might not combine for 100 points, but look for the Monarchs to end Notre Dame’s impressive late-season surge.

Louisville Cardinals (Overall: 20-12, Big East: 11-7)

No. 9 seed, South Region

Louisville is a more balanced version of its first-round opponent, No. 9-seed California. The Cardinals, who are the No. 8 seed in the South Region, have a fairly efficient offense and a middle-of-the-road defense. In comparison, Cal’s offense is No. 4 in efficiency, but its defense is No. 81. For Louisville to get past California and cause problems for top-seeded Duke, the Cardinals need to channel the energy they played with against Syracuse, which Louisville beat twice this season.

For the Cardinals to take care of California, sophomore Samardo Samuels needs to use his superior size to create a mismatch. Samuels averages 15.3 points and 7.0 rebounds per game for the Cardinals. WIth his size, he can force California to collapse its defense, opening opportunities for Edgar Sosa and Louisville’s outside shooters. That formula delivered huge wins against Syracuse.

The Cardinals will use that game plan to success against Cal, but it won’t be enough against Duke. Although Louisville might frustrate Duke at times, the Blue Devils have too much talent to fall to an inconsistent Louisville team.

For the second consecutive weekend, big losses were rampant throughout the basketball nation. Connecticut’s loss to South Florida gives the Huskies 14 losses, meaning that they would need to become the first at-large team with 15 losses to make the NCAA Tournament unless they find a way to win the Big East tournament this week. Cincinnati finds itself in the same boat after losing its third straight game and fifth in six tries.

In the Big Ten, Illinois paralleled the Bearcats’ poor finish with its third straight defeat Sunday, a 72-57 loss in Champaign to Wisconsin. Illinois has a more compelling case for an at-large bid than Cincinnati does thanks to three wins against the RPI top 25. However, the Illini have 13 losses and an RPI of 73. Illinois will get another crack at the Badgers in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament, and the Illini might need to win that game to avoid getting bounced off the bubble.

Besides the bubble teams, several others lost big games that affect their seeding in the latest version of the Mock Tournament.

• Kansas State drops to a No. 3 seed after inexplicably losing at home in overtime to Iowa State, ranked No. 113 in the RPI.
• Villanova also drops to the No. 3 line after losing at home in overtime. However, these Wildcats shouldn’t be as ashamed to lose because West Virginia is finishing the season strongly.
• Vanderbilt also suffered a home loss — to South Carolina — and falls to the No. 6 line.

Here are the latest brackets and links to previous projections.

• Mock Tournament 5.0
• Mock Tournament 4.0
• Mock Tournament 3.0
• Mock Tournament 2.0
• Mock Tournament 1.0

Teams in bold have won an automatic bid.

I was probably one of the few analysts to leave the Wildcats from Kentucky out of the No. 1 seed club in Mock Tournament 1.0. However, until Kentucky won at Vanderbilt Saturday night, the Wildcats had only two wins against the RPI top 50. Villanova only matched that total but had better marquee wins against West Virginia and Georgetown. Plus Villanova had six wins against the RPI top 50 compared to Kentucky’s four.

But since the last mock brackets arrived three days ago, Kentucky proved that it is one of the toughest teams in basketball by winning a war with the Commodores. Meanwhile, Villanova continued to show its weaknesses in a tight loss at Pittsburgh. Both sets of Wildcats went on the road to face a talented conference opponent that was ranked about No. 10 in the RPI, but only Kentucky’s ‘Cats emerged victorious. That moves them ahead of Villanova for a No. 1 spot.

The other noteworthy change among top seeds is Wake Forest’s departure from the top four seeds. The Demon Deacons suffered a blowout loss at North Carolina State, a team outside the RPI top 100. The Demon Deacons still have a solid RPI at No. 21 and have played the 24th toughest schedule. But they have only win against the RPI top 25, against No. 19 Xavier.

Ohio State steps into the No. 4 seed vacated by the Demon Deacons on the strength of Sunday’s win at Michigan State, the team’s fourth win against the RPI top 25. The Buckeyes now possess road wins against three of the Big Ten’s best: Purdue, Michigan State and Illinois. Wisconsin got past the Buckeyes while Evan Turner was hurt, but Ohio State got revenge in Columbus with a 60-51 win. Ohio State’s resurgence in Big Ten play compensates for a non-conference run devoid of big wins, with the best victories coming against Florida State and California.

At the other end of the brackets, here are the noteworthy changes on the bubble:

• Charlotte drops out of the field and is the first team out.
• Saint Mary’s move into the field.
• Connecticut and Florida are much closer to the field than they were three days ago.
• Cincinnati and William & Mary are one bad loss away from being on the wrong side of the bubble.

Take a look at the Mock Tournament 2.0 brackets. Any better than the first attempt? Let us know by leaving a comment.

At this point, Syracuse and Kansas are in excellent position to grab two of the four No. 1 seeds in the tournament. Both teams have only one loss — to an RPI top 25 team — and have combined for 12 wins against the RPI top 50. They rank among the top 15 in overall strength of schedule and top 50 for non-conference strength of schedule. There’s little debate that the Orange and Jayhawks are top seeds right now. The only question is which team would be the overall No. 1 seed in the tournament.

However, filling out the other two No. 1 seeds is more challenging. Among other teams, the list of contestants for those spots includes a bunch of Wildcats — from Villanova, Kentucky and Kansas State. If you rely on the polls and win/loss records, Villanova and Kentucky look like locks for those top seeds. They rank No. 2 and No. 4 in the AP poll, respectively, and No. 2 and No. 3 in the coaches’ poll. Both teams have only one loss entering this weekend.

Although they own impressive records, Villanova and Kentucky reside near the top of the polls because they benefit from national press coverage. With stars like Scottie Reynolds, John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins — plus high-profile coaches in Jay Wright and John Calipari — the Wildcats from Pennsylvania and Kentucky are basking in the media spotlight and reaping the rewards. However, if you focus on results, the Wildcats from Kansas have an equally compelling — if not better — case for a No. 1 seed.

Although Kansas State sports four losses, the team has twice as many wins against the RPI top 50  than Kentucky. Kansas State also has more wins against the RPI top 25 than Kentucky and Villanova combined. Kansas State’s victims include Baylor, UNLV and Dayton — all on the road or at neutral sites. At home, Kansas State also can crow about wins against Xavier and Texas.

In contrast, Kentucky’s only win against the RPI top 25 came last weekend in Lexington against Vanderbilt. Other solid wins for Calipari’s club include Connecticut, Louisville and Mississippi. However, the sum of Kentucky’s parts is a schedule ranked No. 68 overall. Its non-conference schedule strength is less impressive at No. 123. Calipari kept his team close to home until SEC play, venturing out to play only one true road game, a 90-73 win at rebuilding Indiana.

In Kentucky’s defense, it’s not the team’s fault that North Carolina and Connecticut have been inconsistent this season. In most years, wins against the Tar Heels and Huskies would easily be part of the profile of a No. 1 seed. But those teams’ struggles are Kansas State’s gain. Coach Frank Martin had his team ready for the second toughest conference, according to the RPI, after playing the No. 30 most challenging non-conerence schedule. Thanks to the Big 12′s strength, Kansas State has now played the second toughest schedule in the country.

Villanova presents a tougher challenge to Kansas State’s bid for a No. 1 seed. Wright’s Wildcats have a better marquis win at this point — at home against Georgetown — thanks to Texas’ recent slump. If the Longhorns finish strong and the Hoyas fade in Big East play, that could change by Selection Sunday. But right now, Villanova’s win against the Hoyas is great, and the Wildcats will go for the regular-season sweep in Washington, D.C., today.

Besides the win against Georgetown, Villanova also can tout its wins against Dayton, Mississippi, Maryland and Louisville, all of which are in the RPI top 50. Perhaps equally important, the Wildcats have four wins against Marquette, Notre Dame and Seton Hall, all of whom are hovering right outside the top 50. Right now, it’s hard to imagine the Wildcats from Kansas State outdueling the Wildcats from Villanova for a No. 1 seed.

However, in the next few weeks, Kansas State could have an opportunity to displace Villanova. Villanova has benefited from a comparatively easy start to its Big East schedule. Overall, Villanova has the No. 71 ranked schedule, but the team ranks only No. 174 for its non-conference schedule. The overall strength of schedule will increase significantly when the Wildcats play at Georgetown, West Virginia (home and away), vs. Connecticut, at Pittsburgh, at Syracuse and at Cincinnati by the end of the season. If Villanova drops only one or two of those games, the Wildcats will sew up a No. 1 seed. However, if the team struggles and drops four or five of those games, the door will be open for a team like Kansas State to move to one of the top lines in the NCAA Tournament.

In comparison to Villanova, Kansas State’s final few weeks present only one major challenge: a rematch at Kansas. The Jayhawks escaped Manhattan with an 81-79 overtime win, and Martin will have his Wildcats ready to exact revenge in Phog Allen Fieldhouse. Besides that road trip, Kansas State’s only games away from Manhattan are at Iowa State, Oklahoma and Texas Tech — all of which are winnable. If the Wildcats finish strong and pick up a road win at Kansas, they can enter the Big 12 Conference Tournament feeling confident that they are on pace for a No. 1 seed.

Scores:
Davidson 68, West Virginia 65
Texas 67, Villanova 58

What Davidson Did Well: Follow the lead of their “franchise” player and maintain poise. The Wildcats built an early second half double-digit lead only to see West Virginia claw back and take a lead of their own. Sterling guard Stephen Curry was struggling from the floor, largely due to being hounded by a taller, longer Mountaineer defender all night long. In the end, Curry proved to be the major difference. With the game on the balance Curry stepped up. In front of over 14,000 with five minutes left the Davidson junior hit four major shots. And they weren’t exactly wide open looks. He simply put his signature on the contest and willed his team to victory when they needed it most. Curry finished with a game-high 27 points and 10 assists. The stat sheet tells us Curry was 9 of 27 from the field, including 4 of 16 beyond the arc. The stats list him as game-high scorer but do not tell the type performance he had those final few minutes – when his team needed him most. Lest anyone think Curry is solely a green-light gunner, he had a game-high 10 assists and looked for his teammates all night.

What West Virginia Did Well: Rebound and defend. Davidson coach Bob McKillop was hard-pressed to remember another time his team was out-rebounded so bad, and won. West Virginia owned a 58-32 edge on the boards; on the offensive end it was 29-12. The Mountaineers were hit with backcourt injuries, as Alex Ruoff was out and Joe Mazzulla was limited to six minutes of action. Regardless, you knew coach Bob Huggins would not use that as an excuse and come up with a defensive scheme to neutralize Curry. And he did. Huggins kept rotating fresh bodies on Curry. Virtually all of the West Virginia defenders were the taller, long type, hoping to disrupt the Wildcat marksman. It worked.

“They (West Virginia) were taller and longer defensively than what I am used to,” Curry said. “Every time we screened they switched and another tall defender was there waiting.” Simply, he was forced to earn every shot. In the end Curry just did what great players do. Even then, there weren’t any easy shots.

What Villanova Did Well: Compete inside. Texas posed a huge problem with three 6-10 players in the rotation. The Texas “bigs” are collectively not the greatest skilled but they can bang and wear you down. Dante Cunningham had another impressive performance, battling inside and putting up a team-high 23 points and 12 boards. Dwayne Anderson added 9 boards in relief. The 6-6 senior swingman will have to step up and help inside on a regular basis once Big East play unfolds with a succession of physical challenges. Villanova out-rebounded Texas 35-31 and was not significantly hurt on the offensive end by the Longhorn big men.

What Texas Did Well: Defend all night long. In the post-game press conference A.J. Abrams enthusiastically discussed the Longhorn defense. They forced Villanova into a 38 percent shooting night, which included a 4 of 18 (22 percent) mark from beyond the arc. Texas also imposed their defensive will to disrupt the Villanova offense into a 19-turnover evening. On a night when the pace was moderate and possessions were at a premium, that figure loomed as a crucial one. The stat sheet, again, will tell one and all Justin Mason scored 3 points in 33 minutes. Mason’s work is another example of the stats not doing him justice. He played outstanding perimeter defense and was a big reason Villanova’s Scottie Reynolds had a 10-point night on 2 of 7 shooting from the floor.

Final Note on ‘Nova: For Villanova this was their first major test of the year. Actually, they faced Rhode Island in the Hoop Group Classic but didn’t get the challenge they expected. Texas provided the measurement. It would be harsh to say the Wildcats failed. Let’s say it was a learning experience. As well as the Wildcats competed, coach Jay Wright noted a little extra toughness is needed facing a team like Texas. In the loaded Big East, Villanova will face several programs of a similar challenge.
Wright is looking for key defensive stops. Villanova trailed by four points midway through the second half. On several consecutive trips they simply could not get the contest to a one-possession game, thanks largely to Abrams’ (game high 26 points) clutch shooting. The game boiled down to defense. And the Wildcats couldn’t get those key stops at crunch time.

A few players that impressed:

• Abrams, Texas G: Scored 26 points, 4-of-9 from 3.
• Mason, Texas G: The defense never rests.
• Damion James, Texas F: Scored16 points. Can operate in the paint or outside.
• Cunningham, Villanova F: A competitive and tough 23 point 12 board night.
• Corey Stokes, Villanova G: Knocked down a few threes early, finished with 11 points.
• Stephon Curry, Davidson G: Went for 27 points, but his spurt in the last five minutes was the story.
• Andrew Lovedale, Davidson F: Took advantage of the defense’s concern over Curry, scored 15 points.
• Da’Sean Butler, West Virginia F: Solid 24-point, 14-board outing.
• Devin Ebanks, West Virginia F: Impressive inside, scored 13 points and added 17 rebounds.

Quotable: “I really think we have the ability to get to the Final Four. But before we even think about that, we just want to get better each day.” – A.J. Abrams, Texas