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Wake Forest gets a much-needed road win at Boston College

by - Published January 21, 2012 in Columns
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CHESTNUT HILL, Mass. – Wake Forest’s 71-56 win at Boston College on Saturday won’t make national headlines at all. It was a win over a team that most figure will battle to stay out of the ACC cellar. But the Demon Deacons are fresh off a bad year and in the midst of one with a lot of ups and downs, so they’re not about to downplay what this win means for them.

“This is another big step for us in our journey to be the type of team we all want to be,” said head coach Jeff Bzdelik.

… Continue Reading

Wake Forest Demon Deacons 2011-12 Preview

by - Published November 4, 2011 in Conference Notes

Wake Forest Demon Deacons (8-24, 1-15)

 

 

 

 

Projected starting five:

So. G Tony Chennault
Jr. G C.J. Harris
So. F Travis McKie
Sr. F Nikita Mescheriakov
Sr. C Ty Walker

Important departures:

J.T. Terrell: 11.1 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 1.6 apg
Gary Clark: 10.9 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 1.6 apg
Ari Stewart: 8.5 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 1.1 apg

Percent returning scoring and rebounding:

Scoring: 54.4 percent
Rebounding: 71.6 percent

Additions:

None of note.

Schedule highlights:

Best non-conference game: at Seton Hall
Toughest conference stretch: Jan. 19-28 (at Duke, at Boston College, vs. Florida State, at Clemson)

Outlook:

Last season turned pretty ugly for coach Jeff Bzdelik and the Demon Deacons. Wake Forest dropped 15 of 16 ACC games and ranked as one of the worst major conference teams in the country. Since last season, the team lost about 50 percent of its scoring as Gary Clark graduated and J.T. Terrell and Ari Stewart left the team.

Sophomores Travis McKie and Tony Chennault return to lead a relatively young roster. The team figures to struggle again this season, but they should have better chemistry in Bzdelik’s second season. The team must remain competitive in more games to keep the heat off Ron Wellman, the university’s athletic director who canned Dino Gaudio, a Skip Prosser disciple whose teams had a bad habit of peaking in January, in favor of Wellman’s friend, Bzdelik.

Prediction: 11th

Back to ACC preview

Larranaga Jumps Into Shark-Infested Waters

by - Published April 25, 2011 in Full Court Sprints

BASELINE TO BASELINE

Go coast to coast with a roundup of news from across the nation.

  1. Miami finally got its man in hiring George Mason coach Jim Larranaga to become the Hurricanes’ next coach, according to the Associated Press. In Larranaga, the Hurricanes get a coach with a Final Four pedigree, and that’s coming out of the Colonial Athletic Conference. The Colonials’ coach has family roots in Florida, and the opportunity was particularly alluring, even though George Mason is a perennial NCAA Tournament contender in the CAA.
  2. IUPUI hired its new coach from within in the program, elevating associate coach Todd Howard to the top spot, according to the Associated Press. Former head coach Ron Hunter left the program to coach Georgia State.
  3. It’s a little hard to figure what Hollis Thompson is thinking, but the sophomore Hoya announced he will enter the NBA Draft without an agent, according to the Associated Press. Thompson averaged 8.6 points and 4.4 rebounds per game this past season — not exactly attention-grabbing stats.
  4. As much as Texas faithful don’t want to hear it, the decisions of Tristan Thompson, Cory Joseph and Jordan Hamilton make a little more sense. All three players will go through the NBA Draft process, according to ESPN’s Dana O’Neil. However, only Hamilton has immediate plans to sign with an agent, though Thompson figures to be a possible lottery pick.
  5. Former Wake Forest sophomore guard Ari Stewart is heading to the West Coast to play for USC and coach Kevin O’Neill, according to Pedro Moura for ESPN Los Angeles.com.
  6. Jamal Coombs-McDaniel, you just won the 2011 national championship. Where are you going next? The weed man? Not a great idea. Police arrested the sophomore swingman April 21 and charged him with marijuana possession, according to the Associated Press.
  7. Redemption remains a possibility for Coombs-McDaniel, much like it is for BYU’s Brandon Davies, according to a CBS Sports.com wire report. Davies had possibly the most noteworthy sex of any college athlete this year when the news broke in early March that the Cougars would suspend their best big man for violating the university’s honor code, which prohibits premarital sex. However, Davies is confident that he’ll complete the necessary penance to return to campus as a BYU student-athlete, then return to the court as a solid post player for the Cougars.

HOME COURT ADVANTAGE

The Miami coaching gig is a death trap.

It’s not that the Hurricanes will never succeed, and it’s not that a talented coach can’t attract some talented players to Coral Gables. The problem is that it will be almost always impossible to get fans in the stands, which is one of the primary concerns of athletic departments.

And without a naturally enthusiastic fan base, Miami’s coach must produce fantastic seasons on a regular basis. For new coach Jim Larranaga, that’s a tall order.

The Hurricanes have some talent heading into next season, especially if Reggie Johnson returns to school instead of remaining in the NBA Draft. He would join Malcolm Grant and Durand Scott in south Florida. Unfortunately for Larranaga and the ‘Canes, most people in south Florida are more interested in other teams and activities. The city’s mercurial fan base has the Miami Heat as their primary object of affection on the hardwood. Among the Coral Gables community and student body, ‘Canes football will always be the No. 1 sport on campus.

That leaves Larranaga’s crew fighting for the No. 3 spot in town with other sports teams, including the Florida Marlins, Florida Panthers and Miami Dolphins — NFL lockout permitting. And that doesn’t even take into consideration the allure of the beach and notorious night life. Unless Miami can knock off North Carolina and Duke on an annual basis, getting fans to show up at the BankUnited Center will be a very tough task.

The Hurricanes’ 7,200-seat arena would need about 50 percent of all Miami undergrads present and accounted for just to fill three-quarters of the seats. Larranaga would need to attract some serious talent to generate enough buzz to fill the rest of the arena. And that wasn’t his M.O. at George Mason, nor will ACC rivals like Roy Williams, Mike Krzyzewski, Gary Williams and Leonard Hamilton make it easy for him to get the best kids to play at Miami. Within the state of Florida, the Gators have the best shot at recruiting local kids, with Florida State’s Hamilton not far behind.

Despite that shark-infested climate, Miami remains an ACC team with ACC expectations. That means the Hurricanes need to sell out the big games, finish in the top third every now and then, and make a run to at least the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament when talented recruiting classes come through town. Ask Paul Hewitt and Al Skinner how that goes.

Good luck to Larranaga. This won’t be a vacation.

After Shaky Start, ACC Needs Holiday Tourney Joy

by - Published November 18, 2010 in Conference Notes

It might be early in the season, but the ACC is already entering a critical week.

After a bumpy start to the season, conference teams enter the holiday tournament season needing to win some statement games. And the outlook isn’t great.

In the first week and a half, Wake Forest has dropped two home games, and Georgia Tech got obliterated by Kennesaw State. The Yellow Jackets gave up 80 points to the Owls, who mostly played only five guys. Georgia Tech’s eight-man rotation floundered, shooting only 35 percent while committing 19 turnovers.

In Winston-Salem, the Demon Deacons figure to have a long season ahead in coach Jeff Bzdelik’s first year at the helm. Stetson shot 46.4 percent against Wake Forest and, more revealing, out-rebounded Wake Forest 42-31. ACC teams shouldn’t get outworked in their own building to open the season, unless they’re facing a top 10 opponent. That’s just embarrassing.

But there’s plenty of time to change course. Although the conference ranks fifth in winning percentage of the six power conferences, there’s no shame in Virginia Tech losing at Kansas State or Miami losing at Memphis. Road victories for either team would have been a major upset for the conference.

The early season emergence of the ACC must start tonight, when Maryland plays Pittsburgh in the semifinals of the 2K Sports Coaches vs. Cancer Classic. The Terrapins are one of seven ACC teams playing in tournaments during the next 10 days. However, Maryland is one of the few teams with an opportunity to pick up crucial statement victories.

Against Pittsburgh, Maryland will be decided underdogs, and a strong showing, even in a loss, would give the Terrapins plenty to crow about. If the team can beat Pitt or their next opponent — either Illinois or Texas in the championship or consolation game — the trip to Madison Square Garden would be a success. The worst-case scenario for the ACC and Maryland is a two-game sweep in which the Terrapins don’t look competitive against some of the strongest teams from the Big East, Big Ten and Big 12.

In San Juan, North Carolina is the highest rank team in the Puerto Rico Tip-Off. That means the young, unproven Tar Heels are supposed to win the tournament, and anything short of a three-game sweep against a field that includes West Virginia and Minnesota would be a disappointment. We’ll quickly find out how this year’s Tar Heels handle the pressure of lofty expectations after last season’s squad fell apart.

Back on the shores of South Carolina, North Carolina State is one of the favorites in the Charleston Classic. The only way for the Wolfpack to pick up a quality win is to reach the championship game and beat Georgetown. A loss to anyone besides the Hoyas would be detrimental to North Carolina State’s résumé and the ACC’s credibility.

Georgia Tech and Boston College have the best opportunity to grab unexpected quality wins in the Legends Classic in Atlantic City and the Old Spice Classic in Orlando, respectively. Georgia Tech will face either Syracuse or Michigan in the championship or consolation game of the Legends Classic. However, the Yellow Jackets must first get past a tough UTEP team, which is perfectly capable of knocking off a shaky ACC team. The Eagles face a bunch of tough, unranked teams, with the exception of a possible match up with Temple. Boston College needs to represent the ACC well in potential games against Cal, Georgia, Texas A&M, Notre Dame and Wisconsin.

On the West Coast, Virginia Tech finds itself in the same situation that North Carolina does in Puerto Rico: tournament favorite. The Hokies’ toughest opponents in the 76 Classic are Oklahoma State, UNLV, Stanford and Murray State. Unfortunately for Virginia Tech’s résumé, the Hokies won’t garner much more clout by doing anything less than stomping those teams, which won’t be easy, especially 3,000-plus miles away from Blacksburg, Va.

And then there’s Duke. The reigning national champs are No. 1, so they’re supposed to beat anyone, anytime. Despite those ridiculous expectations, the Blue Devils would have a great opportunity to assert themselves as the unquestioned favorites to win this season’s national title if they draw Kansas State and beat the Wildcats in the CBE Classic in Kansas City, Mo. It’s practically a home game for the Wildcats, so a Duke victory would be huge for the ACC’s elite.

2010-11 ACC Preview

by - Published November 11, 2010 in Conference Notes

For the second consecutive year, an ACC team will open the season as defending national champ. And Duke has a real shot at delivering back-to-back titles for the second time in coach Mike Krzyzewski’s illustrious career. At least, the Blue Devils have a far better chance than North Carolina did last season after the Tar Heels were overhyped and then overmatched en route to coach Roy Williams’ worst season in a couple of decades.

Although critics poke the ACC for lacking the quantity of elite teams that the Big East boasts, the ACC has once again proven that its best teams are legitimate title contenders every year. Duke managed to fly under the radar last season as the media fawned over veteran-laden Kansas and John Calipari’s freshmen sensations at Kentucky. But in the end, a ruthlessly balanced team stormed through the post-season and beat Cinderella, aka Butler, in a thrilling championship game. The two will reprise that battle in December when they meet in New Jersey. … Continue Reading

Evan Turner, Wesley Johnson Look to Defy Recent Trends

by - Published June 7, 2010 in Columns

By draft night, 30 NBA teams will have spent countless hours reviewing game tape, scouting workouts, collecting measurements and conducting interviews of every player they will consider taking in the draft.

Although draft night is still two and a half weeks away, every team is busy crunching the numbers on players from John Wall and Evan Turner to Jon Scheyer and Scottie Reynolds. They want a player who can contribute next season — or sometime in the near future. In many cases, that requires filling a specific need. But in others, teams go with the most talented player available.

Obviously, draft results largely depend on the available talent and team needs. However, several trends have emerged during the past few years. And one trend might not bode well for someone like Turner.

Point forwards can dominate the college game. They have the ball handling skills to cut to the hoop, shooting touch to extend defenses beyond their comfort zone, and size to post up smaller guards. However, their skills don’t always translate to the NBA.

In 2008, Italian forward Danilo Gallinari went to New York at No. 6, and Milwaukee picked West Virginia’s Joe Alexander two picks later. Those top 10 picks didn’t exactly inspire much excitement for undersized forwards who like to shoot. Gallinari averaged 6.1 points in 28 games for the Knicks during his rookie season, and Alexander struggled to put up 4.7 points in 59 games. Gallinari improved significantly in his sophomore campaign, but the Bucks gave up on Alexander, shipping him to Chicago for John Salmons.

In 2009, no one took a shot at a point forward until New Jersey took Louisville’s Terrence Williams with the No. 11 pick. Shortly after Williams came off the board, Gerald Henderson and Austin Daye followed. Of the three, Williams fared the best, averaging 8.4 points per game in his rookie season. He appears to be a decent part of the Nets’ rebuilding plans. The other two didn’t impress their teams, the Charlotte Bobcats and Detroit Pistons, respectively. Neither averaged much more than five points per game. What’s worse is Henderson’s shooting: 35.6 percent from the field and 21.1 percent from three-point range. For a 215-pound point forward, that’s unacceptable. And it will scare teams away from guys who haven’t proven that they can be great shooters or legitimate post players.

That spells trouble for Turner. Ohio State’s junior superstar averaged 20.4 points and 9.2 rebounds per game this past season en route to Player of the Year honors. However, Turner shot a decent-but-not-spectacular 36.4 percent from three-point range. And at 6-7 and 215 pounds, Turner might find scoring much tougher in the NBA.

Syracuse’s Wesley Johnson is another player looking to prove he can make it in the league as a small forward. In his one season with the Orange, Johnson dominated opponents for 16.5 points and 8.5 rebounds per game. Unlike Turner, though, Johnson shot 41.5 percent from three-point range, proving that he has the goods to consistently deliver from long range.

Turner and Johnson seem to be safe top 10 picks, though perhaps not as high in the top 10 as expected. However, Wake Forest’s Al-Farouq Aminu might be in trouble. He seems to more closely resemble Daye or Alexander than Turner or Johnson. Aminu is 6-9, 215 pounds and a 44.7 percent shooter. It’s even uglier from three-point range, where Aminu shoots 27.3 percent. Aminu is a hard worker, and he averaged 10.7 rebounds per game for the Demon Deacons. But he’s a risky pick, who could follow in the footsteps of other college point forwards who don’t dominate the post but aren’t good enough shooters to play the 3 spot in the NBA.

If the trends of the past couple of years continue, we might see some surprising results at the top of the draft and some long waits for players projected to hear their names called toward the end of the lottery. In a couple of weeks, we’ll find out how much emphasis NBA executives place on recent history.

2010 ACC Post-Mortem

by - Published May 5, 2010 in Conference Notes

Although several ACC squads had disappointing final results, Duke emerged as the national champ to reaffirm that the conference’s best is always a title contender.

When the season started, we expected Duke to emerge as a national championship contender if the Big Three – Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith – could lead the Blue Devils night in and night out without wearing down.

In November, that seemed like a tall order because the Blue Devils just didn’t have much depth behind those perimeter players. But Scheyer, Singler and Smith fulfilled their potential by carrying Duke to its fourth national championship under coach Mike Krzyzewski.

In the past, Duke has earned its reputation as one of the most hated teams in the country because the national media dwell on every game – much like the media painfully did this season with North Carolina as the Tar Heels crumbled without Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington and Danny Green. But for some reason, there was no hype surrounding this Blue Devils squad. Somehow, Coach K’s team flew under the radar while Kansas, Kentucky and the entire Big East captured the majority of the national coverage.

In the end, Duke proved that its regular-season success wasn’t only the product of a down year in the ACC. The Blue Devils weren’t just the conference’s best team; they were the nation’s best team. Duke had to take down Cinderella – aka Butler – to claim that title. And in the process, the Blue Devils and Bulldogs delivered one of the most thrilling national title games of the past decade.

Few people seriously expected North Carolina to repeat as national champions. But they almost did – if you count the NIT winner as a national champion. After an utterly disastrous regular season that saw the Tar Heels fall apart because of injuries and inexperience, North Carolina pulled things together in the NIT to make a run to the championship game, which the Tar Heels lost to Dayton.

With North Carolina falling from the ACC’s elite, Maryland moved up the conference’s caste system. Fiery guard Greivis Vasquez sparked the Terrapins to a share of the regular-season title. Unfortunately, Maryland peaked about two weeks too early when the Terrapins won a thriller against the Blue Devils in College Park in early March. After that, Maryland failed to win two consecutive games, ending in a second-round defeat to No. 5-seed Michigan State in the NCAA Tournament.

Four other teams joined Duke and Maryland in the NCAA Tournament: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech and Wake Forest. Like Maryland, none of them won more than one game in the tournament.

Outside Duke, the conference lacked a second legitimate powerhouse. If that’s your definition of a down year, then yes, the ACC was down. But the bottom of the conference proved to be better than the cellar dwellers of nearly every other conference, as demonstrated by unlikely ACC Tournament runs by Miami and North Carolina State.

Here’s a recap of the 2009-10 season for ACC teams.

Final 2009-10 Standings

Team Overall ACC
Duke Blue Devils 35-5 13-3
Maryland Terrapins 24-9 13-3
Virginia Tech Hokies 25-9 10-6
Florida State Seminoles 22-10 10-6
Clemson Tigers 21-11 9-7
Wake Forest Demon Deacons 20-11 9-7
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 23-13 7-9
Boston College Eagles 15-16 6-10
North Carolina Tar Heels 20-17 5-11
North Carolina State Wolfpack 20-16 5-11
Virginia Cavaliers 20-17 5-11
Miami Hurricanes 20-13 4-12

ACC Tournament

The ACC Tournament was a harbinger of the NCAA Tournament, with five major upsets in 11 games. But at the end of the tournament, Duke was cutting down the nets.

The Blue Devils won their second-consecutive conference title and ninth since 1999 by beating No. 7-seed Georgia Tech 65-61. Duke’s difficult run against seemingly overmatched opponents – No. 9-seed Virginia, No. 12-seed Miami and the Yellow Jackets – prepared the Blue Devils for a hard-fought run to the national title in the NCAA Tournament. Georgia Tech sealed its bid to the NCAA Tournament with an impressive run that included an upset of No. 2-seed Maryland.

No. 11-seed North Carolina State and No. 12-seed Miami provided the biggest upsets of the conference tournament. The Wolfpack opened the tournament by nipping No. 6-seed Clemson 59-57 and then beating No. 3-seed Florida State 58-52. The Hurricanes overcame a bad ACC regular season by upsetting No. 5-seed Wake Forest and No. 4-seed Virginia Tech. Duke was the only team seeded No. 6 or better to win even a single conference tournament game.

Hoopville’s All-ACC Awards

Player of the Year: Jon Scheyer, Duke

Rookie of the Year: Derrick Favors, Georgia Tech

Defensive Player of the Year: Solomon Alabi, Florida State

Coach of the Year: Gary Williams, Maryland

First-Team All-ACC:

Jon Scheyer, Duke

Greivis Vasquez, Maryland

Kyle Singler, Duke

Al-Farouq Aminu, Wake Forest

Malcolm Delaney, Virginia Tech

Second-Team All-ACC:

Sylven Landesberg, Virginia

Nolan Smith, Duke

Tracy Smith, North Carolina State

Trevor Booker, Clemson

Gani Lawal, Georgia Tech

Third-Team All-ACC:

Joe Trapani, Boston College

Derrick Favors, Georgia Tech

Jeff Allen, Virginia Tech

Ed Davis, North Carolina

Solomon Alabi, Florida State

Season Highlights

8 Things We Saw Coming

1. Duke won a share of the regular season championship and then dominated the conference tournament.

2. Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech and Maryland joined the Blue Devils in the NCAA Tournament.

3. But none of those four advanced far in the tournament.

4. Virginia struggled under new coach Tony Bennett, who put the brakes on the Cavaliers’ pace to one of the slowest tempos in the conference.

5. Miami dropped toward the bottom of the conference with an influx of young talent, such as Durand Scott and Malcolm Grant.

6. Maryland’s Greivis Vasquez went head-to-head with Duke’s best player, Jon Scheyer, for the conference’s Player of the Year award.

7. Virginia Tech established one of the best backcourts in the country with Malcolm Delaney and Dorenzo Hudson – and the juniors look ready to dominate next season if Delaney backs out of the NBA Draft.

8. Florida State’s defensive prowess was remarkably better than the team’s offensive prowess, and it was just enough to carry the Seminoles to an NCAA Tournament bid.

8 Things We Thought We’d See

1. North Carolina was supposed to compete for second place in the conference, but instead finished tied for second worst.

2. The Tar Heels seemed ready to compete with seniors like Marcus Ginyard in the lineup. But Ginyard couldn’t stay healthy for a second consecutive season, and injuries helped derail the Tar Heels’ season.

3. We expected Duke’s highly-touted freshman recruit Mason Plumlee to be a factor. He ended up with 3.7 points and 3.1 rebounds in 14.1 minutes per game.

4. Likewise, Clemson’s Milton Jennings saw even less time, averaging 3.3 points and 2.7 rebounds in 11.2 minutes per game.

5. Wake Forest is usually an offensive juggernaut. But the Demon Deacons struggled on offense despite the presence of a veteran point guard, Ishmael Smith, and talented post players like Al-Farouq Aminu, Chas McFarland and Tony Woods.

6. Georgia Tech point guard Iman Shumpert focused on playing under more control. But the Yellow Jackets couldn’t significantly cut down on their turnovers, committing 16.4 turnovers per game this season compared to 16.8 last season.

7. Usually tough and consistent Boston College remained tough but was anything but consistent, losing five ACC games by double digits.

8. The ACC is traditionally a showcase for electric offense. But only three teams finished in the top 40 in offensive efficiency.

8 Things We Didn’t See Coming

1. Once again, North Carolina stunk. Yes, expectations were too high. Yes, injuries always hurt. But this team looked lost and occasionally apathetic, which utterly baffled coach Roy Williams.

2. Wake Forest exceeded expectations on defense, which had been the team’s bugaboo for several years.

3. Despite the strong defense and a return to the NCAA Tournament, the Demon Deacons axed Dino Gaudio because of his lack of post-season success.

4. Clemson and Boston College also had to find new coaches after Oliver Purnell shockingly bolted for DePaul and the Eagles parted ways with Al Skinner.

5. On the court, the midseason maturation of Duke’s Brian Zoubek was the unlikely catalyst for the Blue Devils’ ascension from contender to champion.

6. Virginia Tech once again proved that you cannot discount a Seth Greenberg-coached team, which finished third in the conference.

7. Quite a few ACC teams – namely, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest and Virginia Tech – channeled their inner Big 10 spirit and devoted far more energy to defense than offense.

8. Maryland jumped from the middle of the pack to near the top of the ACC thanks to another dominating season from Vasquez and just enough support from the rest of the team to consistently beat down ACC foes.

Teams of the Rise

Virginia Tech

We should just leave the Hokies in this category each season, unless Greenberg take another job.

Virginia Tech finished third in the ACC this season and just missed the NCAA Tournament because of a weak non-conference schedule and lack of quality wins. If Greenberg lines up more worthy non-conference foes, the Hokies will build a stronger résumé for the 2011 tournament. They certainly will have the lineup to do so.

The Hokies lose only Lewis Witcher to graduation. A veteran lineup anchored by Delaney – assuming he doesn’t stay in the NBA Draft – Hudson, Jeff Allen, J.T. Thompson and Terrell Bell could become the favorite to challenge Duke for next season’s conference championship.

Florida State

The Seminoles remain here as long as Alabi decides to return to school instead of entering the NBA Draft. If he comes back to Tallahassee, the Seminoles will remain one of the best defensive teams in the country. And they have to get better on offense, right?

Florida State was just abysmal offensively for much of the season, committing nearly 17 turnovers per game. The Seminoles struggled as a team to hit shots when they didn’t turn it over. From three-point range, Florida State shot only 33.5 percent, and from the free throw line, the Seminoles were only 64.4 percent.

North Carolina

Thanks to a run to the NIT championship game, the Tar Heels salvaged a disastrous season and inspired hope for next season.

In particular, Larry Drew II finally looked capable of running the Tar Heels’ offense, which should be more powerful next season. Freshmen Leslie McDonald and Dexter Strickland must become better long-range shooters. If they don’t, incoming freshmen Harrison Barnes, Reggie Bullock and Kendall Marshall will challenge them for playing time. One reason the Tar Heels struggled this season is teams didn’t need to respect their outside shooting. That shouldn’t be true next season, which will open the lane for Ed Davis (if he returns, as he declared for the NBA Draft), Tyler Zeller, the Wear twins and John Henson.

With so much talent on this roster, it’s hard to imagine that North Carolina won’t be on the rise from a 10th-place finish.

Teams on the Decline

Maryland

The Terrapins took advantage of their window of opportunity. With the implosion in Chapel Hill, there was a gaping void after Duke at the top of the standings, and Maryland stepped up to fill it.

But with the graduation of Vasquez, Eric Hayes and Landon Milbourne, the Terrapins will lose three players who averaged at least 30 minutes per game and accounted for 54.7 percent of the team’s scoring and 67.3 percent of the team’s assists.

Coach Gary Williams has been reluctant to trust his bench in recent seasons. He won’t have a choice next season when those bench players become starters.

Virginia

Coach Tony Bennett will get a fresh start after his first season with the Cavaliers because seven players who began the season are leaving the program.

Although Bennett has an opportunity to shape this team as he desires, it’s hard to imagine the Cavaliers improving significantly without Sylven Landesberg, who averaged 17.3 points per game for a team that struggled to score. He accounted for more than one-quarter of the team’s points.

Besides Landesberg, Bennett will need to replace the production of Calvin Baker, Jerome Meyinsse, Soloman Tat, Jeff Jones and Tristan Spurlock.

Wake Forest

The Demon Deacons shocked everyone by firing Dino Gaudio and replacing him with Jeff Bzdelik. Yes, Gaudio had failed to win an NCAA Tournament game despite having three NBA first-round draft picks pass through Winston-Salem, assuming Aminu goes early in this year’s draft.

But Gaudio was attracting great high school players and winning many of the in-state recruiting battles. His teams peaked too early in the season twice. But at least they found a way to the top.

Bzdelik prefers a slower pace than Wake Forest is accustomed to playing. And the Demon Deacons will need to find a new point guard to learn that offense because Ishmael Smith is graduating. He’s taking several key teammates with him, as Chas McFarland, David Weaver and L.D. Willams have also finished their playing careers as Demon Deacons, while Aminu is bolting the team for NBA money.

Despite some talented young players, this team figures to go through at least one season of growing pains under a new coach.

Next Season

Entering this season, many experts figured that Duke and North Carolina would contend for the conference title, but they were likely a year away from challenging for a national championship. Duke proved the experts wrong by taking the national title this year. And they might be the front-runner to do it again next season.

The Blue Devils return Singler and Smith, in addition to talented young big men like Mason Plumlee, Miles Plumlee and Ryan Kelly. Sharpshooter Seth Curry will be eligible after transferring from Liberty, and Andre Dawkins will step into the point guard role. If he struggles, Krzyzewski can turn to freshman Kyrie Irving, who is an electric recruit out of New Jersey. The Blue Devils also are adding Joshua Hairston and Tyler Thornton to a solid recruiting class.

Besides Duke, Virginia Tech and Florida State should build on their success from this past season to fill out the conference’s elite. Wake Forest and North Carolina will have plenty of talent on their roster to possibly join those three, but both teams have plenty of issues to overcome.

In Raleigh, coach Sidney Lowe must elevate the Wolfpack to the top half of the conference or he almost certainly will be looking for a new job after next season. Georgia Tech’s Paul Hewitt might also be on the hot seat if the Yellow Jackets significantly regress – a likely scenario with the losses of Favors and Lawal to the NBA.

If you want a very early sleeper pick to reach the NCAA Tournament, assuming its only 65 teams and not 96, look south to Miami. Coach Frank Haith has reloaded that roster with talented young guards who figure to make their mark next season.

And if the NCAA Tournament expands to 96 teams, look for the ACC to place every single team in the tournament unless expansion includes a rule that teams must have at least a .400 winning percentage in your conference – or something like that.

Wake Forest: Overinflated Expectations Induced Gaudio’s Ouster

by - Published April 11, 2010 in Columns

Wake Forest has an inferiority complex, and Dino Gaudio just became its latest victim.

As Gaudio looks for a new job, he’ll be sending an impressive résumé to potential employers. In three seasons at Wake Forest, he had a 66.4 winning percentage, reached the NCAA Tournament two out of three seasons and attracted a couple of top 25 recruiting classes. Maryland’s Lefty Driesell, in the wake of the Len Bias tragedy, is the only ACC coach with a better winning percentage to get canned. But it wasn’t good enough for the Demon Deacons to keep Gaudio around.

When Wake Forest Athletic Director Ron Wellman announced that the team would be parting ways with Gaudio, he cited the Demon Deacons’ post-season failures. In 2008-09, Wake Forest peaked in January, reaching No. 1 in the polls before fading down the stretch, losing in the team’s first games of the ACC and NCAA tournaments to worse seeds. This season, Wake Forest had similar struggles, losing in the first round of the ACC Tournament to No. 12-seed Miami. In the NCAA Tournament, the No. 8-seed Demon Deacons beat Texas before losing by 30 to top-seeded Kentucky in the second round.

In sum, Gaudio had a 1-5 record in the ACC and NCAA Tournament in three seasons. That’s not impressive. Of course, Dean Smith didn’t even get the Tar Heels to an NCAA Tournament until his sixth season in Chapel Hill. And Coach K didn’t reach the Big Dance until his fourth season with Duke.

However, it’s not like Wake Forest has the rich tradition of Duke or North Carolina. In fact, the Demon Deacons have fewer NCAA Tournament appearances and wins than North Carolina State and Maryland. Historically, Wake Forest’s post-season numbers — 28 wins in 22 appearances, with one Final Four— most closely align with Georgia Tech and Virginia. Since 1962, Wake Forest has made it past the Sweet 16 only three times. And they haven’t reached the Final Four since 1962.

By firing Gaudio, Wellman signified that he expects the Demon Deacons to be a championship contender on a regular basis. Those are lofty expectations for a program that hasn’t had such aspirations since Billy Packer was on the court. Wake Forest came closing during the Tim Duncan era, but the Demon Deacons managed to reach the Elite Eight only once, in 1996, even with one of the best four-year players in ACC history.

Under Gaudio, Wake Forest was consistently in contention for great recruits. He was instrumental in forming some of Wake Forest’s best classes of the past decade, including while he was working as an assistant to his mentor, Skip Prosser, whom Gaudio replaced in 2007 after Prosser died of a heart attack.

Some people speculated that Prosser’s death was evidence of the excessive stress that coaches face. Wake Forest’s firing of Gaudio lends credence to that theory. Who can feel safe when it’s not acceptable to win two-thirds of your games and constantly put an entertaining, talented product on the court in front of a boisterous, packed house?

Yes, Wake Forest slipped up in the post-season recently. However, Prosser failed to reach the NCAA Tournament during his final two seasons. And his teams also had some disastrous NCAA Tournament results. The Chris Paul-fueled juggernaut of 2005 came to an unexpectedly early demise when the No. 2-seeded Demon Deacons lost to No. 7-seed West Virginia. The No. 2 spot was unlucky under Prosser — Wake Forest lost to No. 10-seed Auburn in 2003.

Upsets happen. Mike Krzyzewski, Dean Smith and Roy Williams all witnessed major NCAA Tournament disappointments at least once in their careers. Wake Forest will never know whether Gaudio could have joined that pantheon of coaching legends by continuing to draw supremely talented recruits to Winston-Salem. Instead, Gaudio will likely land at another school within a year or two and start to rebuild elsewhere.

Meanwhile, the Demon Deacons want to move up the ACC pecking order and have just set a precedent of axing good coaches who don’t find a way to make it happen. Let’s hope Wake Forest’s next coach can channel his inner Zen master to handle those blood pressure-elevating expectations.

Bracket Breakdown: How the ACC Will Fare

by - Published March 16, 2010 in Columns

The ACC has had a down year. It’s hard to argue that point when only two teams receive seeds better than No. 7 in the NCAA Tournament. And Maryland’s No. 4 seed is probably a little generous. The skeptics think Duke isn’t worthy of a No. 1 seed.

With all that negativity, the ACC enters the NCAA Tournament looking to re-establish its position as one of the top power conferences. Duke has an excellent shot at making that happen as one of the best teams in the country that nobody wants to love. Maryland has an outstanding squad that seemed destined to make some noise in the NCAA Tournament — until the committee placed the Terrapins in Kansas’ region.

The rest of the ACC teams in the tournament play great defense but have suspect offenses. A couple of them have favorable match ups, while a couple others look destined to start the off-season before this weekend. Here’s a complete preview of the ACC’s representatives in the NCAA Tournament.

Duke Blue Devils (Overall: 29-5, ACC: 13-3)

No. 1 seed, South Region

The Blue Devils enter the tournament facing criticism because they received a No. 1 seed instead of West Virginia. The naysayers are further enraged that the selection committee awarded Duke a better No. 1 seed, placing the Blue Devils in the South Region, on the S-curve than Syracuse, which would play its regional semifinal and final games in Salt Lake City. With all this talk about the Blue Devils not being worthy, they have plenty to prove.

But let’s be the Devils’ advocate for a moment. Duke has played like one of the two best teams in the country all season, according to Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency statistics. In fact, based on offensive and defensive efficiency, Duke should be the favorite to win the national championship, not Kansas. Swallow that, critics!

Of course, a team’s performance on the court often contradicts their profile on paper. For Duke to reach the Final Four, the Blue Devils will need to remain ruthlessly efficient on offense. Duke is one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country, anchored by sharp-shooting Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith. Each of those three shoots better than 38 percent from behind the arc and has made at least 49 three-pointers so far. Duke’s offense runs like a well-oiled machine because the team makes the most of its possessions. Duke is one of the best teams at avoiding turnovers and grabbing offensive rebounds.

Defensively, Duke simply makes it hard to score. The Blue Devils force turnovers during more than 20 percent of opponents’ possessions. Teams that don’t turn it over still struggle to score against a defense that allows opponents to only shoot 44.3 percent from inside the arc and 28.2 percent behind it. Duke’s ability to shut down opponents’ long-range shooters is critical to making a deep run in March. Three-pointers can be the great equalizer for seemingly overmatched underdogs. But Duke won’t let someone win that way.

Based on Duke’s draw, the Blue Devils should reach the Final Four. But they will encounter resistance as early as the Sweet 16. No. 5-seed Texas A&M and No. 12-seed Utah State could challenge Duke’s Final Four aspirations in that round. In the Elite Eight, Duke could face No. 3-seed Baylor in Houston in front of a hostile crowd. But the Blue Devils are accustomed to hostile crows at every road game. Look for Duke to reach the championship game before running into the unstoppable force out of Lawrence, Kan. The Jayhawks simply have too many weapons for a shallow Duke team that otherwise matches up favorably against Kansas.

Maryland Terrapins (Overall 23-8, ACC: 13-3)

No. 4 seed, Midwest Region

If Maryland were seeded as a No. 5 or 6 seed in any region outside of Kansas’, the Terrapins would be a trendy pick to wreck some brackets and knock off better seeds. But alas, the Terrapins are a No. 4 seed and would likely face top-seeded in the Sweet 16 of the Midwest Region. Maryland possesses the firepower to hang with Kansas, but the Terrapins don’t have enough defense to pull off what would be one of the biggest upsets of the tournament.

Maryland enters the NCAA Tournament with the No. 6 most efficient offense. Senior superstar Greivis Vasquez is the catalyst for the offense, which puts up nearly 80 points per game. Vasquez contributes almost one-quarter of that scoring, averaging 19.5 points, 4.6 rebounds and 6.3 assists per game. He’s not the best shooter in the tournament, making about 43 percent of his attempts, but he is one of the most fiery leaders. Fueled by Vasquez’s leadership, a trio of experienced players will be ready to contribute. Landon Milbourne, Eric Hayes and Sean Mosley will need to continue to score in double figures to help the Terrapins advance past No. 13 Houston in the first round and then No. 5 Michigan State or No. 12 New Mexico State.

Against Houston, the Terrapins will face the nation’s leading scorer in Aubrey Coleman. Look for Maryland to give up plenty of points to Coleman but limit the production of any other Cougar. The Terrapins would likely obliterate the defensively challenged Aggies. Coach Tom Izzo’s Spartans would provide a more formidable match up, but the Terrapins will win that one on the strength of clutch performances by Vasquez and Hayes. But Kansas will end Maryland’s hopes. In all, the ACC co-champions should be happy with a run to the Sweet 16. It would mark their best season in nearly a decade.

Clemson Tigers (Overall: 21-10, ACC: 9-7)

No. 7 seed, East Region

As the No. 7 seed in the East Region, Clemson has a tough draw. The Achilles’ heel for the Tigers has been a downright ugly turnover rate. More than 20 percent of the team’s possessions end in a turnover. That’s a problem when facing No. 10-seed Missouri, which is one of the three best teams in the country at forcing turnovers. The Tigers desperately need guards Demontez Stitt and Andre Young to take care of the ball. The two combine to average 4.4 turnovers per game and only 5.6 assists per game. That’s not a great ratio for the team’s primary ball-handlers.

However, if Clemson can cut down the turnovers, senior Trevor Booker will have a huge day. He leads the team with 15.3 points and 8.3 rebounds per game, with about one-third of those rebounds coming at the offensive end. Missouri is one of the worst teams in the country at keeping opponents off the glass.

On defense, the Tigers from Missouri might play right into the strength of the Tigers from Clemson. Missouri likes to jack up lots of three-pointers. But Clemson allow only 29.4 percent three-point shooting this season, ranked tenth-best.

Clemson will win a wild one against Missouri that should see plenty of turnover-induced scoring runs. But the Tigers will run into trouble against West Virginia. That game could start as a blowout for West Virginia and end with Clemson making it interesting before falling short at the end.

Florida State Seminoles (Overall: 22-9, ACC: 10-6)

No. 9 seed, West Region

Based on their offensive inefficiency, the Seminoles have no business beating anyone in the tournament. But Florida State’s defense manages to make games ugly enough to give the Seminoles a chance. As the No. 9 seed in the West Region, Florida State will face a stiff challenge from No. 8 Gonzaga. In the end, Gonzaga’s balance will undo another strong defensive performance by Florida State.

The Seminoles are among the 15 worst teams in the country at protecting the ball. All those turnovers will lead to defeat against Gonzaga. And if they fall behind, the Seminoles will struggle to rally because they shoot only 33.5 percent from three-point range. Center Solomon Alabi will deliver another strong performance in the paint, but he could easily finish with more blocks than the team has three-pointers. Barring an epic defensive performance, that’s not a good recipe for success in the NCAA Tournament.

Florida State’s best chance at victory is to keep the score under 60 points and maintain at least a two-possession throughout the second half. The Seminoles are a bad free throw shooting team and will need as large of a cushion as possible in the closing moments to stop a late rally. Gonzaga probably won’t even need that, though.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons (Overall: 19-10, ACC: 9-7)

No. 9 seed, East Region

Wake Forest, the No. 9 seed in the East Region, has a veteran lineup with three senior starters and a future NBA Draft pick in sophomore Al-Farouq Aminu. But for the second consecutive season, the Demon Deacons are sliding at the end of the season as losers of five of their last six games. To avoid a second straight one-and-done NCAA Tournament performance, the Demon Deacons need to find a way past equally underwhelming No. 8 Texas.

With six wins against the RPI top 50, Wake Forest has the talent needed to beat the Longhorns and maybe even challenge top-seeded Kentucky. But it won’t happen. The team’s offense is floundering, primarily because of the two-headed monster of turnovers and bad shooting. Wake Forest ranks among the bottom half of Division I teams in protecting the ball, and the Demon Deacons shoot a dismal 31.3 percent from three-point range and 47.6 percent inside the arc. Even if Wake Forest has a lead, the team’s 66.0 percent free throw shooting could jeopardize the win.

Aminu will struggle against Texas’ superstar, Damion James. He might approach his average of 15.7 points per game, but if Aminu needs to guard James on the perimeter throughout the game, he won’t be able to grab as many rebounds as usual (10.7 per game). Likewise, James and Dexter Pittman have the size needed to box out Wake Forest’s big men and cut off one of the Demon Deacons’ strengths: their ability to grab offensive rebounds.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (Overall: 22-12, ACC: 7-9)

No. 10 seed, Midwest Region

Like Wake Forest and Florida State, the Yellow Jackets are far better at stopping opponents than scoring. But in comparison to those two ACC peers, the No. 10 seed in the Midwest Region is much better offensively. Georgia Tech will face an offensively oriented team in No. 7-seed Oklahoma State. Both teams have played inconsistently this season, and the Cowboys might rely too much on scoring sensation James Anderson. That would behoove the Yellow Jackets.

Georgia Tech doesn’t let opponents shoot well from anywhere, and Anderson will struggle to find clean looks against the much taller Yellow Jackets. Forwards Gani Lawal and Derrick Favors will need to the difference makers for Georgia Tech. The two big men combine to average 25.6 points, 17.2 rebounds and 3.5 blocks per game. Collectively, they grab more than six offensive rebounds per game. In a game that likely will figure plenty of missed shots, rebounding will be critical, and Georgia Tech has an advantage.

Interestingly, Georgia Tech’s likely second-round opponent, No. 2-seed Ohio State, has a similar profile to Oklahoma State, with Evan Turner dominating the offense and the rest of the team coming along for the ride. But the rest of the Buckeyes are much better than the rest of the Cowboys. Ohio State will take advantage of Georgia Tech’s proclivity to commit critical turnovers to win a closer than expected game.

In summary, the ACC figures to have mostly expected results. As a No. 1 seed, Duke is supposed to reach at least the Elite Eight. The Blue Devils will deliver on that promise en route to a championship game appearance — and loss — to Kansas. Besides Kansas, only Maryland will reach the Sweet 16. Wake Forest and Florida State will fail to win a game, while Georgia Tech and Clemson will advance one round before losing to No. 2 seeds.

However, the ACC will likely surprise critics with Duke’s success and close losses to presumably far superior teams.

Bracket Breakdown: Which Teams Rose and Fell?

by - Published March 14, 2010 in Columns

When Texas reached No. 1 in the polls in mid-January, the Longhorns looked like a lock to cruise to a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Fans and experts were eagerly awaiting Texas’ clash with Kansas in Austin, which many figured could determine the overall No. 1 seed.

However, the Longhorns fell into a tailspin and finished the season by losing nine of 16 games. Instead of receiving a No. 1 seed, Texas will have to face a No. 1 seed in the second round. The selection committee gave the disintegrating Longhorns a No. 8 seed in the East region. The Longhorns will face No. 9 Wake Forest in New Orleans with a possible second-round match up against No. 1 Kentucky. That’s a dramatic fall in less than two months.

A few other teams appeared on pace for great seeds before faltering down the stretch.

  • Purdue fell to No. 4 after remaining in consideration for a No. 1 seed as recently as two weeks ago. The loss of forward Robbie Hummel might derail the Boilermakers’ Final Four aspirations.
  • Wake Forest lost five of its final six games, including an opening-round ACC tournament game to No. 12-seed Miami. As a result, the selection committee dropped the Demon Deacons to a No. 9 seed, which could be considered generous.
  • Utah State looked to be in contention for a No. 8 or 9 seed before losing the WAC championship game to New Mexico State. The selection committee gave Utah State a No. 12 seed as a result.
  • Tennessee has wins against Kansas and Kentucky this season, but the Volunteers’ last game was a 30-point drubbing to the Wildcats in the SEC tournament. A lack of other quality wins and that blowout led to the Volunteers falling to a No. 6 seed.

While some teams played their way down to worse seeds, a few other stormed through February and early March to rise in seeding. Notre Dame is the most notable ascender because the Fighting Irish were barely in bubble contention when superstar Luke Harangody went down to injury. But the Irish found a way to rattle off six straight wins before falling to West Virginia in the Big East tournament semifinals. That win streak included upsets of Pittsburgh — twice — Georgetown, Connecticut and Marquette. The streak added several great wins to a profile that already featured a marquee win in South Bend against West Virginia. The late season resurgence delivered Notre Dame an invitation to the NCAA Tournament as a No. 6 seed, one of the most remarkable late-season charges in recent years.

Here are some of the other late bloomers.

  • En route to a No. 3 seed, Georgetown also had a late run in the Big East with wins against Cincinnati, Syracuse and Marquette.
  • Before losing to Georgia Tech in the ACC tournament quarterfinals, Maryland had won nine of 10 games, including a huge victory against Duke in College Park and road wins at Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina State and Florida State. The selection committee gave the ACC co-champion a No. 4 seed.
  • Ohio State enters the NCAA Tournament as a No. 2 seed thanks to a sensational finish in which the Buckeyes won 13 of their last 14 games, including three wins against Illinois and solid victories against Minnesota and Michigan State.

Bracket Breakdown: Mock Tournament 2.0

by - Published February 22, 2010 in Columns

After this weekend’s action, the Mock Tournament 2.0 has a shakeup at the top, with Kentucky replacing Villanova as a No. 1 seed.

I was probably one of the few analysts to leave the Wildcats from Kentucky out of the No. 1 seed club in Mock Tournament 1.0. However, until Kentucky won at Vanderbilt Saturday night, the Wildcats had only two wins against the RPI top 50. Villanova only matched that total but had better marquee wins against West Virginia and Georgetown. Plus Villanova had six wins against the RPI top 50 compared to Kentucky’s four.

But since the last mock brackets arrived three days ago, Kentucky proved that it is one of the toughest teams in basketball by winning a war with the Commodores. Meanwhile, Villanova continued to show its weaknesses in a tight loss at Pittsburgh. Both sets of Wildcats went on the road to face a talented conference opponent that was ranked about No. 10 in the RPI, but only Kentucky’s ‘Cats emerged victorious. That moves them ahead of Villanova for a No. 1 spot.

The other noteworthy change among top seeds is Wake Forest’s departure from the top four seeds. The Demon Deacons suffered a blowout loss at North Carolina State, a team outside the RPI top 100. The Demon Deacons still have a solid RPI at No. 21 and have played the 24th toughest schedule. But they have only win against the RPI top 25, against No. 19 Xavier.

Ohio State steps into the No. 4 seed vacated by the Demon Deacons on the strength of Sunday’s win at Michigan State, the team’s fourth win against the RPI top 25. The Buckeyes now possess road wins against three of the Big Ten’s best: Purdue, Michigan State and Illinois. Wisconsin got past the Buckeyes while Evan Turner was hurt, but Ohio State got revenge in Columbus with a 60-51 win. Ohio State’s resurgence in Big Ten play compensates for a non-conference run devoid of big wins, with the best victories coming against Florida State and California.

At the other end of the brackets, here are the noteworthy changes on the bubble:

  • Charlotte drops out of the field and is the first team out.
  • Saint Mary’s move into the field.
  • Connecticut and Florida are much closer to the field than they were three days ago.
  • Cincinnati and William & Mary are one bad loss away from being on the wrong side of the bubble.

Take a look at the Mock Tournament 2.0 brackets. Any better than the first attempt? Let us know by leaving a comment.

1

Kansas

Syracuse

Purdue

Kentucky

2

Georgetown

Villanova

Duke

Kansas State

3

Wisconsin

Pittsburgh

West Virginia

Temple

4

New Mexico

Ohio State

Texas

Tennessee

5

Wake Forest

Richmond

Vanderbilt

Michigan State

6

Texas A&MXavier

Georgia Tech

Butler (Horizon)

7

BYU

Oklahoma State

Baylor

Dayton

8

Missouri

Old Dominion (CAA)

UNLV

Gonzaga (West Coast)

9

Northern Iowa (Missouri Valley)

Clemson

Illinois

Florida State

10

Virginia Tech

Rhode Island

UAB

Louisville

11

Maryland

Marquette

Cincinnati

William & Mary

12

Saint Mary’s

California (Pac-10)

Utah State (WAC)

Siena (Metro Atlantic)

13

UTEP (Conference USA)

Kent State (MAC)

Cornell (Ivy)

Oakland (Summit)

14

Murray State (Ohio Valley)

Sam Houston State (Southland)

Weber State (Big Sky)

Charleston (Southern)

15

Santa Barbara (Big West)

Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun)

North Texas (Sun Belt)

Morgan State (MEAC)

16

Coastal Carolina (Big South)

Stony Brook (America East)

Robert Morris (Northeast)

Lehigh (Patriot)

Jackson State (SWAC)


Last Eight In:

Rhode Island

UAB

Louisville

Maryland

Marquette

Cincinnati

William & Mary

Saint Mary’s

First Eight Out:

Charlotte

South Florida

Connecticut

Utah State (if needed)

Florida

Mississippi

Seton Hall

San Diego State

Conference
Breakdown:

Big East: 8

ACC: 7

Big 12: 7

Atlantic 10: 5

Big Ten: 5

Mountain West: 3

SEC: 3

CAA: 2

Conference USA: 2

West Coast: 2

21 one-bid conferences

Bracket Breakdown: ACC’s Offensive Woes Will Limit Tourney Success

by - Published February 2, 2010 in Columns

Yes, North Carolina represented the ACC well last season by winning the national championship. But the other six ACC teams in the NCAA Tournament bowed out in ugly performances. Four of them failed to put up 60 points in their final game, and four teams lost by at least 15 points. Offensive inconsistency was the downfall of ACC teams last season, and the top teams’ performance this season indicates that history might repeat in March.

As of Feb. 2, the ACC has six teams in the RPI top 50: Duke, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Florida State, Clemson and Maryland. All of those teams except Georgia Tech played and lost in last season’s NCAA Tournament. So each team entered this season with hopes of another trip to the Big Dance, but each knew it needed to improve to last longer in the tournament.

Of those six teams, only Duke can feel confident that it is on pace to make a lasting impact in the NCAA Tournament. The Blue Devils are one of only four teams that rank in the top 20 for offensive and defensive efficiency, as measured by Ken Pomeroy. In the past six NCAA Tournaments, 17 of 24 Final Four participants have met that profile. In addition, Duke is one of the best teams in the country in defending the perimeter, which makes the Blue Devils less susceptible to the machinations of a hot-shooting dynamo. Plus Duke avoids giving teams extra possessions, committing only 12.0 turnovers per game. More importantly, the Blue Devils have a pair of sound ball-handlers in Nolan Smith and Jon Scheyer, who commit fewer than two turnovers per game.

Based on efficiency numbers, Maryland would appear to be poised to make some noise in the NCAA Tournament. The Terrapins rank No. 20 for offense and No. 21 for defense. However, Maryland also has some concerning statistics to overcome. Despite having a guard-oriented lineup, the Terrapins are porous on the perimeter. Opponents get more than 30 percent of their scoring from behind the arc. And when they miss, they grab offensive rebounds nearly 36 percent of the time. When Memphis stomped Maryland in the NCAA Tournament last season, the Tigers hit 10 three-pointers and out-rebounded the Terrapins 33-23.

Maryland wasn’t the only ACC victim sniped down by long-distance sharpshooters in the last NCAA Tournament. Florida State lost in overtime largely because Wisconsin hit nine three-pointers. The Seminoles also committed 14 turnovers to the Badgers’ nine. Superstar point guard Toney Douglas single-handedly accounted for that differential by committing five turnovers. This season, the Seminoles are one of the worst teams in Division I in protecting the ball, averaging about 17 turnovers per game. Florida State tries to overcome that sloppiness with the No. 1 defense, based on efficiency. Although the Seminoles make it hard to score, they are vulnerable on the perimeter, allowing opponents to make about seven three-pointers per game. Opponents get 35.2 percent of their points from three-point territory. Frequent turnovers, a sluggish offense — ranked No. 105 in efficiency — and lackluster three-point defense are key ingredients in the recipe for a first-round NCAA Tournament upset.

Like its ACC brethren, Wake Forest gave up some untimely three-pointers in its major first-round upset to Cleveland State in last year’s NCAA Tournament. But the Demon Deacons lost mostly because they failed to play under control, committing 18 turnovers and forcing only six. All-ACC guard Jeff Teague ushered in the disaster with seven turnovers. Although the Demon Deacons’ offense has regressed this season — from No. 43 in efficiency last season to No. 88 this season — Wake Forest has tightened its three-point defense, with opponents managing only 23.7 percent of their points from behind the arc. Wake Forest’s tournament hopes this season will depend largely on the Demon Deacons’ ability to stop three-point shooters. And it also will rely on point guard Ish Smith controlling the tempo and limiting turnovers.

Clemson looks like a mirror image of Wake Forest, and the two won’t meet until the final game of the regular season March 7. The Tigers lost to Michigan in the first round of last year’s NCAA Tournament by giving up 10 three-pointers and struggling on offense. Unlike Wake Forest, which gave away the ball too often, the Tigers simply couldn’t hit shots. For a team ranked No. 16 in offensive efficiency, Clemson looked inept against Michigan and coach John Beilein’s 1-3-1 zone defense. The Tigers have work to do on offense this season and are ranked only No. 92 in efficiency. But they should be better prepared to handle a perimeter-oriented team because opponents get only 22.2 percent of their points from behind the arc, the 39th best rate in Division I. The Tigers play suffocating defense that forces turnovers, so Clemson figures to match up well against many teams defensively. The question the Tigers must answer is whether they can muster enough offense to get past one or two tournament opponents.

Of the ACC’s best teams based on RPI, Georgia Tech figures to be the lone newcomer to the NCAA Tournament. But Georgia Tech might face a familiar fate. The Yellow Jackets have a solid defense, ranked No. 8 in efficiency, but a mediocre offense, ranked No. 64. In addition, they give up a significant percentage of opponents’ points (29.5 percent) from behind the arc. And they turn the ball over more than 16 times per game. Point guard Iman Shumpert is guilty of playing carelessly too often, averaging 3.3 turnovers per game. For a young team with no NCAA Tournament experience, the Yellow Jackets could run into trouble in the first round if they play a fundamentally strong team that has been to the NCAA Tournament one or two consecutive years — think Cornell or Siena.

By the end of the season, the ACC could look back at the 2010 NCAA Tournament with a sense of deja vu. Duke could easily make a run to the Final Four, with only one or two other ACC teams making it past the first weekend of play and a couple of highly seeded teams going down in first-round upsets. Outside Duke and Maryland, all of the ACC’s powerhouses need to find a way to avoid offensive slumps — the kind of lackluster performances that can lead to March Madness melancholy.

Wake Forest has Already Arrived

by - Published January 15, 2009 in Columns

CHESTNUT HILL, Mass. – There was no question entering this season that Wake Forest has talent, a good deal of it in fact.  A recruiting class as heralded as theirs, added to a nice young core that featured sophomores James Johnson and Jeff Teague, takes care of that.  What wasn’t known was how quickly this group might bring the Demon Deacons back to being contenders in the ACC.

We’ve already got our answer: very quickly.  As in, right now.

After Wednesday night’s 83-63 win at Boston College, one that was even more convincing than the final score would indicate, the case can even be made that the Demon Deacons are the best team in the country right now.  They will enter the weekend as one of just three teams in the nation that are still undefeated.

It’s easy to look at key statistics or even to watch the team and be impressed.  The Demon Deacons shoot over 51 percent from the field, hold opponents to just over 36 percent and force 18 turnovers a contest, and out-rebound opponents by an average of just under eight per game.  Nine players average at least 11 minutes per game.  Watch this team, and you see how athletic they are, as well as the size they have up front, and they can run or score in the halfcourt quite well.

All of that is nice, but numbers can be deceiving and a winning team isn’t made of pure athletes and big bodies.  Such teams are almost a dime a dozen in college basketball, so it’s things aside from that which often make the difference.  And as young as the Demon Deacons are, how fast they grow up would be the key.  They start two juniors alongside sophomores Johnson and Teague and freshman Al-Farouq Aminu.

They got tests of their maturity early on.  After rolling in their first three games, all at home, they went to the 76 Classic in Anaheim, a loaded event, and came away with three wins that have helped shape their season.  They held off a second half rally from Cal State Fullerton in the opener, as the Titans trailed by 15 in the second half before getting within three.  They did the same against UTEP as they led by a dozen midway through the second half only to see the Miners get within one late.  They finished it off by knocking off a solid Baylor team.

“I like where we’re at,” said head coach Dino Gaudio.  “They’re a confident group, but not overconfident.  I think the tournament in Anaheim gave us some juice.”

You could see this more recently, when they snapped Brigham Young’s 53-game home winning streak in front of the second-largest crowd ever at the Marriott Center, then knocked off North Carolina on Sunday night.  The latter was a game they won, not a game North Carolina lost.  They led for the final 13:13 of the game, but never by more than eight, and were seriously challenged throughout that time.

Even Wednesday night’s win was significant.  Boston College had Wake’s number in recent years, including a 112-73 thumping last year at The Heights that ranks as the tenth-largest margin of defeat in the program’s history.

“I told them, we’ve never beaten Boston College,” said Gaudio.  “Since they’ve been in the ACC, we’ve been 0-4, and I guess there were three games before that.  Pretty soon, you’ve got to say, enough is enough.  I thought they were ready to play, I really do.”

Teague has probably been the hottest player in the country not named Jodie Meeks of late.  He scored 30 at Brigham Young, then followed it up with 34 against North Carolina and drew tremendous praise from Tar Heels head coach Roy Williams.  On Wednesday, he had 29 on 10-17 shooting, and both he and the coach didn’t feel he played well.

We all should not play well, in that case.

Johnson, for his part, was huge at the defensive end Wednesday night.  He held Eagle guard Rakim Sanders to four points on just 1-8 shooting, and Sanders turned it over five times.  Additionally, Johnson may have had just 11 points to go with eight rebounds and three blocks, but he had a couple of shots that were back-breakers in halting momentum that the Eagles were trying to gather with small comebacks.

“If I had to pick a player of the game, it would be James Johnson,” said Gaudio.  “He did a terrific job on Rakim Sanders.  We challenged him before the game, and we said that was going to be a big, big matchup.  James was extraordinary defensively for us, and I think that really set the tone for the game.”

Teague feels he and Johnson both grew up a lot last year.  Gaudio said he felt Teague was better in the latter part of the season, and was arguably the top rookie in the ACC in the last ten games.  What has really helped is that they have a mature younger group.

“For the freshmen, they were really mature,” said Teague.  “They came in like a humble group that was ready, and they knew what was going to be ahead of them.  I think Al-Farouq’s brother (Alade, a senior at Georgia Tech) helped him a lot with this situation because he plays in the ACC.  I think he really knows what it’s going to be like and has really helped us.”

Gaudio loves the enthusiasm and competitiveness he sees with this team.  Practices are often highly competitive, and players get fiery quite often.  Even so, this group seems to be quite together, with no apparent chemistry concerns.  That bodes well heading into Saturday’s game, one that no one would have picked to be what it is – an early ACC showdown at Clemson, another undefeated team.

“It’s going to be a great challenge, and so far, we’ve met all of those challenges,” Gaudio reflected.

They’ve met the challenges not as a talented team, but as a talented team that is growing up right in front of us.

ACC Notebook – Starting the Conference Grind

by - Published January 4, 2009 in Conference Notes

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As we begin to enter the grinding two months of conference play, the ACC appears to be one of the top conferences in the country. The conference has two undefeated teams remaining – and neither one is named Duke or North Carolina. Four teams are ranked in national polls, with Boston College likely to make an appearance soon after a huge win at Chapel Hill.

With just two months to Selection Sunday, ACC squads begin jockeying for position in the conference in earnest. Several teams need to make a strong run to earn a bid to the NCAA Tournament. Several others figure to earn tops seeds in the tournament, while the conference’s bottom feeders hope to spoil everyone else’s plans.

As of the beginning of January, the ACC looks like it could easily earn six or seven NCAA Tournament invitations. North Carolina, Duke and Wake Forest look like locks to be in the tournament. Clemson is a strong team that does not have a lot of meaty wins. But the Tigers should make plenty of noise in the ACC – especially if they can end an 0-for-forever losing streak in Chapel Hill Jan. 21. Clemson plays the type of tough defense that can frustrate the Tar Heels, as Boston College demonstrated.

Speaking of Boston College, the Eagles have only two losses to their name and one monster victory against North Carolina. Right now, that would put them in the tournament. In fact, preseason ACC darling Miami is in a more tenable position than the Eagles are because they have two home losses in addition to a third loss at a neutral site. And the Hurricanes best win is at a schizophrenic Kentucky team. Miami has a favorable ACC schedule – but that also means the Hurricanes have fewer opportunities to prove their worth. They can ill afford to go 0-5 against Clemson, North Carolina, Duke and Wake Forest in the five meetings against those squads.

Meanwhile, teams like Florida State, Maryland and North Carolina State are off to a strong start even though they lack many high-profile wins. The Terrapins possibly have the best win of the three thanks to a blowout of Michigan State in Orlando. However, each of those teams needs to win nine or 10 conference games to have a legitimate shot at the NCAA Tournament. The odds are that at least one of them will come through.

Toward the bottom, Virginia, Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech each have five losses already. However, they play hard and have plenty of talent to remain competitive. If these are the worst teams in the conference, the ACC promises to be a slugfest, with no team guaranteed victory. Already, two road teams have stolen conference wins from their hosts. Even North Carolina is not immune.

By the time the conference season is over, the ACC could produce a slew of teams stuck at 9-7, 8-8 or 7-9 with only one or two teams with 12 wins or more. Let the fun begin.

Clemson Tigers (14-0, 1-0)

Of the three remaining undefeated ACC teams, Clemson gets the least respect. The Tigers’ best wins are against Illinois and Miami – both of which were on the road. Clemson has won all but four games by at least 10 points. The Tigers hold opponents to barely 42 percent shooting from the field, while the Tigers shoot nearly 50 percent on offense. Opponents turn the ball over more than once every four possessions under the Tigers’ unrelenting defensive pressure. Junior forward Trevor Booker averages 2.5 blocks per game, one of three Tigers who block at least one shot per game. In short, the Tigers are a rock-solid defensive team, and they are ready to take on the rigors of the ACC.

As impressive as Clemson’s defense is, the Tigers’ offense is even more efficient. Clemson boasts a top 10 offense, according to Ken Pomeroy’s statistical ratings. The team’s shot selection has been excellent, reflected by the team’s 49.9 percent field goal shooting and 37.5 percent three-point shooting. Even the team’s free throw shooting has improved after being an Achilles’ heel in past seasons. Senior swing man K.C. Rivers is the leading scorer, averaging 15.3 points and 6.0 rebounds per game. But coach Oliver Purnell has nine players who can step in and contribute at both ends of the court, and he rotates them freely throughout the game. The Tigers are built for success, and they will quickly find out if they can hang near the top of the ACC after they play Wake Forest, North Carolina and Duke in a two and a half week stretch at the end of January and early February.

Upcoming games:

  • Jan. 6 vs. Alabama
  • Jan. 10 vs. North Carolina State
  • Jan. 17 vs. Wake Forest

Duke Blue Devils (12-1, 1-0)

The most noteworthy roster change in the early season is the promotion of sophomore guard Nolan Smith to the starting lineup. He took senior Greg Paulus’ position, giving the Blue Devils possibly the best sixth man in the conference. The Blue Devils’ offense has featured more motion, which takes advantage of Duke’s guard-heavy lineups. None of Duke’s guards averages more than 2.6 assists per game, but as a team, the Blue Devils are dishing out 15.5 assists per game.

Duke is cruising along this season at 12-1 while remaining a highly ranked team. However, with the Tar Heels attracting all the attention, the Blue Devils have an opportunity to play spoiler during conference play. Duke has one of the most efficient offenses and defenses and is cruising following an early December setback at Michigan. In that game, the Blue Devils jacked up 33 three-point attempts and hit only seven. For a team that does not shoot the ball particularly well from beyond the arc (32.1 percent) or rely on the long shot for scoring (just 22.6 percent of its total points), the Michigan loss appears to be an instructive aberration for Duke. In a 92-51 beating of Loyola, Md., Duke was again cold from three-point range, shooting only 8.3 percent. However, the Blue Devils attempted only 12 three-pointers and finished with a 54.5 percent overall shooting percentage.

Upcoming games:

  • Jan. 7 vs. Davidson
  • Jan. 10 at Florida State
  • Jan. 14 at Georgia Tech
  • Jan. 17 vs. Georgetown

Boston College Eagles (13-2, 1-0)

Boston College’s non-conference run might not have produced any résumé-building wins, but the Eagles’ first ACC win was a dandy. The Eagles traveled to Chapel Hill as massive underdogs and left with a fairly easy win. Coach Al Skinner simply convinced his team to outmuscle the Tar Heels for 40 minutes. Led by senior superstar Tyrese Rice, who is averaging 16.7 points, 6.4 assists and 4.0 rebounds per game for the Eagles, the Eagles denied North Carolina easy shots. They also took care of the ball, committing only 10 turnovers.

As Boston College enters the ACC slate, the Eagles are playing solid basketball after losing two in a row in November to Saint Louis and Purdue by a combined 10 points. The Eagles don’t beat themselves, committing only 12.7 turnovers per game. They attack the glass, averaging better than 40 rebounds per game and shoot well, at 46 percent from the field. Transfer Joe Trapani has been a boon for Skinner and has become the team’s second-leading scorer at 14.1 points per game. He also adds 6.6 rebounds per game, one of three Eagles to average more than six rebounds per game.

Upcoming games:

  • Jan. 7 vs. Harvard
  • Jan. 10 vs. Miami
  • Jan. 14 vs. Wake Forest
  • Jan. 17 at Virginia Tech

Virginia Cavaliers (6-5, 1-0)

The youth movement is in full effect in Charlottesville, with three freshmen and sophomores receiving at least 28 minutes per game. The ring leader is freshman swing man Sylven Landesberg, who is quickly sewing up ACC rookie of the year honors. Landesberg is averaging 19.6 points, 5.9 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game while shooting nearly 50 percent from the field and better than 80 percent from the free throw line. Landesberg helped give the Cavaliers an 88-84 overtime win against Georgia Tech to open ACC play. He scored 26 points in 41 minutes, including six in overtime.

Despite the exciting future of Landesberg, the Cavaliers do not figure to fare well in the grind of ACC play. Virginia has struggled against the likes of Radford, Liberty, Auburn and VMI, winning two and losing two. Although Sammy Zeglinski, Mike Scott and Landesberg form a solid nucleus for coach Dave Leitao to build around, they account for more than 55 percent of the team’s scoring this season. In addition, the team commits too many turnovers, nearly 15 per game. In conference play, the lack of experienced scorers and ball handlers figures to cause problems for Virginia.

Upcoming schedule:

  • Jan. 6 vs. Brown
  • Jan. 10 at Virginia Tech
  • Jan. 15 vs. North Carolina

Wake Forest Demon Deacons (13-0, 0-0)

A schedule featuring only one ranked team has helped the Demon Deacons run to an13-0 start. The team’s best win is an 87-74 victory against Baylor in the 76 Classic championship in Anaheim. However, the Demon Deacons’ play justifies their top 10 ranking. Wake Forest ranks in the top five in rebounding and shooting percentage and in the top 10 in scoring. Sophomore guard Jeff Teague leads the Demon Deacons’ attack with 19.6 points and 4.2 assists per game. On a team that does not rely on three-point shooting, Teague is shooting better than 50 percent from beyond the arc.

The key to Wake Forest’s success is shot selection. The Demon Deacons are shooting better than 51 percent from the field, and the team gets more than 62 percent of its scoring inside the arc, according to Ken Pomeroy’s statistics. Wake Forest has three monsters in the post: junior Chas McFarland, sophomore James Johnson and freshman Al-Farouq Aminu, who combine to average 36.7 points and 23.6 rebounds per game. All three players shoot at least 50 percent from the field.

The only loss Wake Forest has suffered this season is junior forward Jamie Skeen, who opted to transfer. Skeen was declared academically ineligible for the fall semester, and he decided to transfer. He averaged 5.6 points and 4.1 rebounds per game last season, but he likely would not get as much playing time this season.

Upcoming games:

  • Jan. 11 vs. North Carolina
  • Jan. 14 at Boston College
  • Jan. 17 at Clemson

Florida State Seminoles (13-2, 0-0)

The young Seminoles are an enigma entering conference play. Offensively, the lineup filled with freshmen and sophomores frequently struggles, scoring only 67.1 points per game and committing 16.6 turnovers per game. However, coach Leonard Hamilton has this group playing great defense. Only three opponents have scored more than 70 points, and the Seminoles won two of those games. Nine opponents failed to reach 60 points, including six of the last seven. If Florida State can continue to hold most opponents to 40 percent shooting or worse, the Seminoles have a chance to win some ugly games against the conference’s high-powered offenses.

When Florida State needs points, the Seminoles usually turn to senior guard Toney Douglas. Hamilton’s senior leader is averaging 18.4 points per game, the only Seminole to average double figures. He also averages 35.2 minutes per game. Douglas likely must continue to carry the load until Hamilton’s latest star-studded recruiting class progresses on offense. Freshman Chris Singleton and sophomore transfer Derwin Kitchen have been the most consistent players from that recruiting class, combining to average 17.8 points and 10.5 rebounds per game. Singleton is becoming a reliable long-range threat, shooting 40.5 percent from three-point territory, while Kitchen is deadly inside the arc, shooting 59.4 percent from the field.

Upcoming schedule:

  • Jan. 10 vs. Duke
  • Jan. 13 at North Carolina State
  • Jan. 17 vs. Maryland

Maryland Terrapins (11-2, 0-0)

Last season, Maryland’s lack of depth left the Terrapins exhausted at the end of games and down the final stretch of the season. The starting five played 76.9 percent of the game and accounted for 85.6 percent of the team’s scoring. Cliff Tucker was the No. 1 reserve, averaging 4.1 points in 15.8 minutes per game. The Terrapins are off to an 11-2 start this season partially because junior guards Greivis Vasquez and Eric Hayes don’t have to do everything for coach Gary Williams. This season’s starting five plays 66.9 percent of the game and scores 77.7 percent of the points. Tucker remains a top reserve, but he is more efficient when he’s in the game, averaging 5.2 points in 12.8 minutes per game.

Williams must hope that his youngsters on the bench can improve throughout the season to help Maryland avoid another late-season fade, which has been a trend in recent years. Sophomore reserves Braxton Dupree and Dino Gregory offer tough interior play. Each player averages 3.5 rebounds per game in about 15 minutes per game. Freshmen Sean Mosley and Jin-Soo Kim have struggled on offense. Each freshman shoots worse than 38 percent from the field. However, they are talented athletes who promise to make a significant impact on the court at some point during their career. Vasquez and Hayes hope that happens sooner rather than later.

Upcoming games:

  • Jan. 7 vs. Morgan State
  • Jan. 10 vs. Georgia Tech
  • Jan. 14 at Miami
  • Jan. 17 at Florida State

North Carolina State Wolfpack (9-3, 0-0)

North Carolina State has battled injuries to several backcourt players in the early stages of this season. Sophomore Javier Gonzalez has been out for the past two weeks with a sprained ankle, and junior Trevor Ferguson is out until late January with a broken finger. Ferguson leads the Wolfpack in three-point shooting, making 41.5 percent of his shots from long range. Another junior, Farnold Degand, returned to action in early December after recovering from tendonitis in his left knee, which he injured last season.

Despite the injuries, North Carolina State is off to a solid 9-3 start partially thanks to the resurgence of junior forward Brandon Costner. In a sensational freshman season, Costner averaged 16.8 points and 7.3 rebounds per game while shooting 37.9 percent from three-point range and 47.4 percent from the field. However, last season, Costner struggled throughout the entire season. His shooting dramatically declined, as he shot only 30.5 percent from beyond the arc and 36.2 percent overall. As a result, his scoring average dipped to 8.5 points per game.

Costner’s confidence also took a hit last season, and his rebounding suffered, as he averaged only 4.6 rebounds per game. So far, Costner appears to have channeled his freshman form and is once again a dominant player, averaging 14.8 points and 7.2 rebounds per game with 37.0 percent three-point shooting and 50 percent overall shooting. In a thrilling 68-66 loss at Florida, Costner scored 24 points and grabbed seven rebounds, and he was 9-of-11 from the field.

Upcoming games;

  • Jan. 10 at Clemson
  • Jan. 13 vs. Florida State
  • Jan. 17 vs. Georgia Tech

North Carolina Tar Heels (13-1, 0-1)

Early in the season, North Carolina looked unbeatable despite dealing with several injuries. Senior forward Tyler Hansbrough missed four games because of a stress condition that required rest. He also twisted an ankle in a win at Santa Barbara. In addition to missing their All-American, the Tar Heels played without freshman center Tyler Zeller and senior defensive specialist Marcus Ginyard. Zeller broke his wrist late in the Nov. 18 game against Kentucky when he was fouled from behind on a breakaway layup.

Despite winning every non-conference game by at least 15 points, the Tar Heels could not find any offensive consistency in their first ACC game of the season, losing an 85-78 shocker to Boston College in Chapel Hill. The Eagles frustrated North Carolina’s offense throughout the game, limiting transition opportunities and harassing Hansbrough. The All-American finished 6-of-15 from the field. As a team, the Tar Heels shot only 38.4 percent from the field and 55.6 from the free throw line. North Carolina’s success has been based on high percentage shooting and a pressure defense that forces turnovers. Boston College showed that if a team can deny those elements, the Tar Heels can be beaten, even at home.

Upcoming games:

  • Jan. 7 vs. College of Charleston
  • Jan. 11 at Wake Forest
  • Jan. 15 at Virginia
  • Jan. 17 vs. Miami

Miami Hurricanes (10-3, 0-1)

The Hurricanes enter ACC play with a solid record and high expectations. However, Miami has whiffed on its few opportunities to make a statement with a high-profile victory. In three losses to Ohio State, Connecticut and Clemson, the Hurricanes have struggled to find offensive consistency, scoring less than their 75.9 points per game average. Against Connecticut and Ohio State, the Hurricanes shot less than 40 percent from the field. Against Clemson, the Hurricanes could not handle the Tigers’ defensive pressure, committing 22 turnovers and failing to convert free throws (12-of-27).

The Hurricanes sport solid efficiency numbers, according to Ken Pomeroy’s ratings, as the No. 28 offense and No. 30 in defense in efficiency. However, five blowouts with at least 20-point margins of victory help mask some of Miami’s deficiencies. Specifically, Miami’s offense almost entirely relies on strong games by senior guard Jack McClinton and junior forward Dwayne Collins. They are the only players averaging more than 20 minutes per game who shoot anywhere near 50 percent from the field. Collins is an effective post scorer, averaging 11.1 points per game on 62.3 percent shooting from the field – which is the best shooting percentage in the conference. McClinton remains the star, averaging 17.1 points per game on 48.3 percent shooting, including 45.9 percent from three-point range. But no other Hurricane is a reliable scoring threat. If you take out McClinton and Collins, the rest of the team shoots 39.8 percent from the field. That’s not going to get the job done in conference play.

Upcoming games:

  • Jan. 5 vs. Florida Atlantic
  • Jan. 10 at Boston College
  • Jan. 14 vs. Maryland
  • Jan. 17 at North Carolina

Virginia Tech Hokies (9-5, 0-1)

Like last year, the Hokies enter conference play needing to win 10 or 11 games to have a shot at the NCAA Tournament after a lackluster non-conference run. Virginia Tech missed opportunities to pick up big wins against Xavier and Wisconsin. Before losing by 25 points in Durham to the Blue Devils, Virginia Tech had not lost by more than four points, continuing last season’s trend of struggling to win tight games. As usual, coach Seth Greenberg’s team plays tough defense and has held 12 opponents to 70 points or fewer.

However, unlike past Hokie teams, this Virginia Tech squad is not forcing as many turnovers. And they continue last season’s trend of making more turnovers on offense, averaging 14.5 turnovers per game. Senior swing man A.D. Vassallo, sophomore guard Malcom Delaney and sophomore Jeff Allen have been the only consistent offensive contributors so far. They combine to average 49.6 points per game, or nearly 70 percent of the team’s 71.4 points per game. Greenberg uses a 10-man rotation, but he just can’t rely on anyone outside the big three to deliver consistent offense. Until the Hokies find a more balanced offense, they’ll struggle to avoid long scoring droughts.

Upcoming games:

  • Jan. 10 vs. Virginia
  • Jan. 14 vs. Richmond
  • Jan. 17 vs. Boston College

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (8-5, 0-1)

Georgia Tech has struggled early in the season mostly because of a depleted backcourt. The Yellow Jackets lost senior guard D’Andre Bell before the season started because of a spinal injury that required surgery. Senior guard Lewis Clinch missed the first seven games because he was academically ineligible for the first semester. And most recently, sophomore point guard Maurice Miller missed seven games after suffering a concussion and nasal fracture in Georgia Tech’s 66-60 loss to Illinois-Chicago.

With struggles in the backcourt, Georgia Tech has predictably struggled in several critical areas. The Yellow Jackets commit nearly 16 turnovers per game while shooting only 30 percent from three-point range and 58.6 percent from the free throw line. However, sophomore forward Gani Lawal has emerged as a stud for coach Paul Hewitt. Lawal averages 17.2 points and 9.7 rebounds per game while contributing more than a steal and block per game on defense. Senior forward Alade Aminu teams with Lawal in the post and contributes 13.9 points and 8.8 rebounds per game. However, for Georgia Tech to succeed in the ACC, the team needs Miller to recover quickly, Clinch to get up-to-speed on the court soon, and freshman Iman Shumpert to reduce his 3.5 turnovers per game.

Upcoming games:

  • Jan. 6 vs. Georgia
  • Jan. 10 at Maryland
  • Jan. 14 vs. Duke
  • Jan. 17 at North Carolina State

Phil Kasiecki on Twitter

  • Another two games are in store tomorrow: Temple at Rhode Island (2 p.m.) followed by Penn at Brown (6 p.m.).
  • Final score: Harvard 71, Cornell 58. Cornell remains winless on the road this season.
  • At the last media timeout, Harvard leads 62-47 with 3:34 left.
  • At the under-8 media timeout, Harvard's lead is up to 57-38 with 7:42 left.
  • When Cornell doesn't foul, they're a very good defensive team. They're already in the two-shot penalty just past the halfway point.
  • At the under-12 media timeout, Harvard leads Cornell 47-33 with 11:02 left.

Michael Protos on Twitter

Your Phil of Hoops

Northeastern is not yet a contender in the CAA

February 3, 2012 by

northeastern

After losing to Drexel on Wednesday night, where Northeastern stands is clear in the CAA. They are not contenders yet, and until they knock off a team ahead of them in the standings, that’s where they will be.

Harvard asserts itself in the opening weekend of Ivy League play

January 29, 2012 by

harvard

The first full weekend of Ivy League play is in the books, and one thing that wasn’t too surprising happened: the league favorites asserted themselves as just that. Harvard looked like a team on a mission, and coming away with two convincing road wins is what was desired.

Quick Hitters – January 27, 2012

January 27, 2012 by

author_kasiecki

Some quick hitters about Boston University’s rebounding, a transfer helping Marquette, an improving Husky guard and a couple of key road wins among others as we head into another weekend.

Quinnipiac finally pulls one out to close road swing

January 22, 2012 by

quinnipiac

Quinnipiac can now head home with the hope that their last game in the current road stretch does more for them than add one into the left-hand column. The Bobcats had a few tough games recently, and had another one in which they managed to pull out a 78-71 win in overtime at Bryant on Saturday.

Quick Hitters – January 21, 2012

January 21, 2012 by

author_kasiecki

We have a few quick hitters on a streaking America East team, another whose star had his first rough night, two inconsistent Patriot League teams and a couple of teams who have lost a player for the season but for different reasons.

Ron Hunter is already changing the culture at Georgia State

January 19, 2012 by

georgiastate

Ron Hunter knew he had a culture to change at Georgia State, and he knew he was in a different place. Now he has a different issue on his hands with his team, which stands 5-2 in CAA play after a loss at Northeastern on Wednesday night.

Boston College off to a surprising start in ACC play

January 15, 2012 by

bostoncollege

There’s a big surprise near the top of the ACC standings. With only Duke sporting an undefeated record, one team in the logjam at 2-1 is the very young Boston College Eagles after two straight home wins.

Boston University hopes to regain confidence with losing streak over

January 9, 2012 by

bostonuniversity

Just over a month ago, Boston University looked ready go on a good run. But a six-game losing streak resulted instead, and the Terriers hope to regain confidence after ending it on Sunday.

Harvard continues to live dangerously in Ivy League opener

January 8, 2012 by

harvard

Harvard improved to 13-2 on Saturday by winning the first Ivy League game of the season. While the bottom line is all positive, the Crimson also lived dangerously for a while, more so than the 16-point final margin of victory might lead one to believe.

UMBC’s non-conference struggles don’t matter with conference-opening road win

January 3, 2012 by

umbc

With conference play, a bad non-conference run with one loss after another doesn’t matter on the bottom line. One example of that is UMBC, a team that won one game in non-conference play but is tied atop America East after an 82-76 win at New Hampshire on Monday night.

Full Court Sprints

Percolating hoops intrigue makes February a fantastic month for sports

It’s February — one of the most underrated sports months of the year. With the Super Bowl coming up this weekend, the biggest event in U.S. sports will command the attention of tens of millions of viewers, generating tens of millions of dollars for everyone associated with the event. A …

Conference Coverage

Big Sky Conference update – Jan 26, 2012

January 26, 2012 by

bigsky

JUST IN TIME FOR TONIGHT’S GAMES… All the news you ever wanted to know about the Big Sky, the weekly edition. YOUR WEEKLY DAMIAN LILLARD IS A STUD LINK-FEST: A Salt Lake Tribune story on his success. USA Today also jumped in sometime in the last week to talk about …

Cleveland State Vikings Overwhelm Milwaukee Panthers 83-57

January 22, 2012 by

horizon

In a game with major implications for the regular season Horizon League championship and seeding for the Horizon League Tournament, the Cleveland State Vikings dominated the Milwaukee Panthers by a score of 83-57 in a game in which the Panthers never led. The Vikings and Panthers began the day in …

Big Sky Conference update – January 18, 2012

January 18, 2012 by

bigsky

One team stands alone atop the standings for now, with another a little behind them and a logjam near the middle of the pack.

Cleveland State Use Barrages from Outside to Defeat Loyola

January 7, 2012 by

horizon

The Cleveland State Vikings started 2012 off on a winning note with a 69-48 victory at home on Saturday afternoon over the visiting Loyola Ramblers. In his pregame radio comments, Vikings coach Gary Waters stated that the Ramblers’ 5-10 record heading into Saturday’s matchup was deceiving and that the Ramblers were …

Big Sky roundup, week 1

January 5, 2012 by

bigsky

Opening weekend in the Big Sky Eastern Washington Record: 7-7, 1-1 Weekend: 1-1 Major superlatives: Won by 16, lost by 8; 76.5 ppg for, 72.5 against; plus-4 scoring margin; 52-112 FG; 20-53 3pt; 29-43 FT. Summary: One night, the lead stuck. The other, it didn’t. The Eagles made an early …

Your Big Sky Conference primer

December 28, 2011 by

bigsky

The Big Sky is about to dive in to conference play, and so far, the season has unfolded pretty much as expected, with Sacramento State looking like the one surprise.

Around the Horizon League: Week 7

December 28, 2011 by

horizon

Like the rest of the country, the Horizon League teams have been enjoying the holiday season and taking it easy on the hardwood. Here’s a roundup of the action that did go down during the past week.

Cleveland State messes with Texas, defeats Sam Houston State Bearkats

December 22, 2011 by

clevelandstate

Cleveland State had plenty of Christmas cheer to share in the Vikings’ easy win against Sam Houston State, though they didn’t exactly give the Bearkats a festive feeling.

Around The Horizon League: Week 6

December 22, 2011 by

horizon

Butler Bulldogs (5-7): Butler began the week with a matchup against the Purdue Boilermakers at Conseco Fieldhouse. Having struggled in the early part of the season, the Bulldogs probably weren’t given much of a chance by most observers against the Boilermakers. Summing up some of the magic that has helped …

Around The Horizon League: Weeks 4-5

December 14, 2011 by

horizon

Butler Bulldogs (4-6): Butler has continued to struggle in the early stages of the 2011-12 college basketball season. However, don’t start writing Butler’s obituary just yet. Horizon League fans shouldn’t forget that Butler began last season slowly and bottomed out with a loss to Youngstown State before turning their season …

A busy and exciting week in the Big Sky

December 13, 2011 by

bigsky

We take a quick run through the results from the past week in the Big Sky Conference, giving a little love to each team in the conference.

Oklahoma has the best Big 12 player you don’t know

December 12, 2011 by

oklahoma

Missouri and Baylor are looking great, but we love the improvement of one of Lon Kruger’s guards.

Vikings pull out dramatic victory over Akron

December 10, 2011 by

clevelandstate

Longtime Cleveland sports fans are familiar with the “Kardiac Kids,” which was the nickname bestowed on the 1980 Cleveland Browns team that won multiple games in the waning seconds of the game. Although the 2011-12 college basketball season is still somewhat young, the Cleveland State Vikings have already given that …

Cleveland State Vikings Defeat Detroit Titans 66-61

December 4, 2011 by

clevelandstate

The Vikings keep rolling as they take out Detroit in an early battle for positioning at the top of the Horizon League.

No cause for alarm in the Big East

November 29, 2011 by

bigeast

Yes, a few Big East teams have faltered early in the season. No, that’s not a reason to panic, as it is still November.