Nine All-CAA players return, including the reigning Player of the Year. 40 of 60 regular starters return, along with 12 of the top 20 scorers and rebounders. Around the conference, there are some solid newcomers as well, and a couple of players who missed last season due to injury also return.

The conference doesn’t project to change much at the top. The preseason poll of coaches, sports information directors and media had Old Dominion picked to repeat as champions. Perennial powers VCU and George Mason were next, and both were among the top teams last season as well. After the projected top four teams, the next five could go in any order and it wouldn’t be a completed shock if Towson jumped into that mix. The projected bottom teams, Georgia State and UNC Wilmington, are headed for rebuilding years.

Two schools have new head coaches, and a third was a close call. The two coaching changes were noteworthy ones for different reasons. After a long and drawn-out search, UNC Wilmington hired Buzz Peterson to take over its program. Hofstra initially hired former Providence head coach Tim Welsh to take over for Tom Pecora, but a DWI arrest led to his resignation and the subsequent hire of Mo Cassara, previously a Boston College assistant who was part of Welsh’s initial staff.

In September, the conference announced that the CAA Tournament would remain in Richmond for at least two more years through 2014. The future of it has been a subject of discussion over the last year, and for now at least the speculation can be put to rest, although it is sure to resurface again before too long.

Questions We Need Answered

• With everyone else returning, how much will Old Dominion miss Gerald Lee, especially his leadership?
• Is Devon Moore’s return the difference between last season’s results and last season’s potential for James Madison?
• Is George Mason’s team really an “important” year older with most of last season’s cast back?
• Will Northeastern’s sophomores make a big jump to complement Chaisson Allen now that more playing time is available for them?
• At Delaware, is Alphonso Dawson the biggest beneficiary of Brian Johnson’s return?
• With Nathaniel Lester having to redshirt, what will Charles Jenkins’ supporting cast look like on the perimeter?
• Will Towson’s guards pick up where they left off in the final weeks of last season and give the team some consistency?

Player of the Year: Charles Jenkins, Hofstra

Top Newcomer: Braxton Dupree, Towson

Top Freshman: Devon Saddler, Delaware

Defensive Player of the Year: Greg Washington, Hofstra

Coach on the Hot Seat: Pat Kennedy, Towson

Best NBA Prospect: Denzel Bowles, James Madison

All-Conference

Chaisson Allen, Sr. G, Northeastern

Denzel Bowles, Sr. F, James Madison

Charles Jenkins, Sr. G, Hofstra

Quinn McDowell, Jr. G-F, William & Mary

Joey Rodriguez, Sr. G, VCU

Team Capsules

Old Dominion Monarchs (27-9, 15-3 Colonial)

Glad to have you back: Four experienced starters led by senior SF Ben Finney, senior PF Frank Hassell and junior SG-SF Kent Bazemore.

We’ll miss you: SF Gerald Lee, the team’s best player last season, and SG Marsharee Neely.

Welcome to the program: Freshman Richard Ross appears to be the most ready to contribute of the four freshmen.

Who they play: Blaine Taylor will challenge his team in non-conference play, opening with Georgetown at home and later hosting Richmond and Dayton. They also play in the Paradise Jam, where they take on MAAC contender St. Peter’s and either Clemson or Long Beach State in the first two games, and play true road games at East Carolina and Missouri. Starting in mid-January, they play five of six CAA games at home, three coming during a stretch of five games in 11 days.

Keep up the good work: The Monarchs had the best rebouding margin in the CAA by far.

Room for improvement: Only two teams shot worse from the foul line than the Monarchs, which could be a problem trying to seal a close game late.

Don’t be surprised if: There isn’t a big differential between the team’s top five scorers.

Outlook: There is every reason to believe the Monarchs should repeat this season. They have so many things going for them: talent, experience, length, depth and versatility are chief among them. While Gerald Lee will be missed, the easy part is replacing his production as there are plenty of candidates and balance to pick up the slack. If there is any question mark, it is replacing his leadership, but the experience on this team suggests that won’t be a major issue if it is one at all.

While Finney, Hassell and Bazemore may get the most pub, a key for this team is the presence of a senior point guard who has started before in Darius James. James can distribute and has plenty of scoring options at his disposal. Bazemore is versatile and has only begun to tap into his potential, and he gets it done at the defensive end. The bench has good veterans like senior Keyon Carter and junior Triad Iliadis, and although none of the freshman are highly-touted, Taylor will work them in to get them some experience and they will contribute.

The Monarchs owned the boards and were a good defensive team last season, and that should hold true again this season in part because they have six players who stand 6’7″ or taller. Along with their mix of personnel, it should be a formula for another trip to the NCAA Tournament.

VCU Rams (27-9, 11-7 Colonial)

Glad to have you back: Senior PG Joey Rodriguez leads a strong cast of four returning starters, and senior SG Brandon Rozzell is a key reserve.

We’ll miss you: C Larry Sanders, who declared for the NBA Draft.

Welcome to the program: Colorado transfer Toby Veal is likely the most ready of the newcomers to produce since he’s the only one with Division I experience, but three freshman frontcourt players also have potential down the road and could help some this season.

Who they play: The non-conference schedule has some good challenges. The Rams will play in the NIT Season Tip-Off against Winthrop and either Hampton or Wake Forest (host). They also head on the road for games at South Florida, Richmond and UAB. They also host the VCU Christmas Tournament. CAA play begins in earnest with three of four at home, and they start February with three straight on the road. They also get George Mason only at home.

Keep up the good work: VCU was the conference’s best offensive team, leading in scoring and field goal percentage by wide margins.

Room for improvement: The Rams were near the bottom in field goal percentage defense as opponents shot nearly 43 percent against them.

Don’t be surprised if: The inside game is better despite the departure of Sanders, as the Rams have a very good group in the frontcourt.

Outlook: It’s easy to think that losing Sanders will be a blow to this team, but there are mitigating factors that will make the Rams contenders. For one, the Rams have four returning veteran starters, led by the very competitive Rodriguez. But the Rams also formed an identity aside from Sanders last year, and although he won Defensive Player of the Year it’s debatable whether he was really deserving of it.

Second-year head coach Shaka Smart feels like he has six players capable of starting, so depth won’t be a concern. Rodriguez may be joined on the perimeter by classmate Ed Nixon and versatile junior Bradford Burgess, the latter of whom could play three different positions. The frontcourt shouldn’t miss a beat despite Sanders’ departure, as Jamie Skeen should provide good post scoring and Colorado transfer Toby Veal will be a perfect fit alongside the holdovers. Rozzell could start, or remain a solid reserve with his shooting ability off the bench.

Depth won’t be a problem with Darius Theus more ready this year and a good crop of freshmen ready to contribute. Smart feels at least one freshman in the frontcourt will need to help in a reserve role this year between Juvonte Reddic, Heath Houston and D.J. Haley. He is especially high on Reddic’s potential.

Smart is well-liked and respected around the conference, and for good reason. He’s easy to deal with, quietly charismatic and even-keeled. In short order, he’s established that as long as he’s at the helm, the Rams are going to remain contenders, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if they break through this year with the veteran group they have back.

George Mason Patriots (17-15, 12-6 Colonial)

Glad to have you back: The entire starting lineup, led by senior PG Cam Long and junior SF-PF Ryan Pearson.

We’ll miss you: F Louis Birdsong, who was talented but inconsistent, and F Kevin Foster, who transferred.

Welcome to the program: A solid recruiting class that will get the chance to grow behind a slew of veterans is led by SG Bryon Allen and PF Jonathan Arledge.

Who they play: The Patriots’ non-conference slate features five home games, four of which combine with the CAA opener against UNC Wilmington for a rare five-game homestand. They play Charlotte and either NC State or East Carolina in the first two games in the Charleston Classic, host Harvard and George Washington, and have road games at Duquesne and Dayton. Early in CAA play, they have three straight on the road, including Old Dominion in the middle. They get VCU only on the road.

Keep up the good work: The Patriots were fourth in three-point field goal percentage and fifth in overall field goal percentage.

Room for improvement: Last season’s team was not the kind of defensive team Jim Larranaga wants his teams to be, as they were in the bottom half in each major category and that includes being out-rebounded.

Don’t be surprised if: A couple of freshmen get significant minutes despite the more experienced teammates they have.

Outlook: The Patriots got off to a fine start last year in CAA play before winning just twice in February. They also lost in the quarterfinals of the CAA Tournament and blew a big lead in an overtime loss in the first round of the CIT. That they even got that far showed how talented the team is, although it was inexperienced. This year’s team has many of those players back, along with talented newcomers Bryon Allen and Jonathan Arledge, and they also get Paris Bennett back after redshirting.

The backcourt is in fine shape with Long and junior Andre Cornelius leading the way. Long has to be the leader, while Cornelius led the conference in three-point shooting last year. Depth isn’t an issue with senior Isaiah Tate, sophomore Sherrod Wright and Allen. The frontcourt is in even better shape, with junior Ryan Pearson being the warrior that leads classmate Mike Morrison and sophomore Luke Hancock. Pearson does a little of everything, leading the team in rebounding while playing as a combo forward. Bennett will get minutes, as will Johnny Williams and Arledge, who like Allen is too talented to not have on the court for some time despite the veterans that are on this team.

Larranaga always stresses defense with his teams, and last season’s team didn’t live up to that. With much of that team back and a year older, that should be different, and perhaps the month of February will be as well.

James Madison Dukes (13-20, 4-14 Colonial)

Glad to have you back: Senior PF Denzel Bowles, the leading returning scorer and rebounder in the CAA, and sophomore PG Devon Moore, who missed last season with a knee injury. Two other starters return as well.

We’ll miss you: PG-SG Pierre Curtis and CAA All-Rookie selection Darren White.

Welcome to the program: Junior PG Humpty Hitchens, a transfer from Ohio, should get a lot of minutes right away and make an impact. They add two more guards and another forward who could all contribute right away.

Who they play: The Dukes open the season in the CBE Classic, playing at Kansas State before hosting a subregional with games against Ivy favorite Princeton, Presbyterian and Patriot League favorite Bucknell. Only one of their six games in December is at home, a December 22 date with a Marshall team they also play on the road about two weeks earlier. Road games include South Florida and Kent State late in the month. When CAA play begins in earnest, four of the first five games are at home, then in mid-February they play three straight on the road.

Keep up the good work: The Dukes were fourth in the CAA in field goal percentage.

Room for improvement: Only Towson turned the ball over more among CAA teams.

Don’t be surprised if: Bowles’ numbers go down since he will have more help, especially at the offensive end.

Outlook: Last season, much was expected of the Dukes, certainly more than the record they ended with. Head coach Matt Brady said at the end of the season that he was frustrated with the team all year long because there wasn’t any consistent improvement, and it showed in the wins and losses.

Moore’s return could be a big difference-maker for this team. His numbers as a freshman are one thing, but Brady raves about his leadership abilities and his absence may have been a big reason for last season’s results from an intangible standpoint. Add scorer Julius Wells and powerful inside force Bowles, and you have a solid core for this team.

As important as Moore’s return is, that of Andrey Semenov may be as big an addition because he’s a terrific glue guy in the frontcourt. Adding him to Bowles, sophomore Trevon Flores and Rayshawn Goins makes the frontcourt stronger, with Wells being the stalwart on the wing. Semenov is unselfish and can make all the frontcourt players better.

Brady is high on this team’s depth, but especially the backcourt. Moore will lead the way, with Ohio transfer Humpty Hitchens likely to make an impact right away. Holdovers Ben Louis and Alioune Diouf are going to have to battle for minutes with other newcomers, as junior college transfer James Millen and freshman Chad Jackson could play right away.

Moore’s injury, as well as that of Semenov, hurt the team greatly last season in part because of a lack of depth, although both have great intangible value to the team as well. Although Brady feels this team can better withstand an injury than either of his first two in Harrisonburg, the health of this team will be the deciding factor in how good they are. If it’s a healthy team, they should be in contention and look more like the team of two seasons ago than last year.

William & Mary Tribe (22-11, 12-6 Colonial)

Glad to have you back: Junior SG-SF Quinn McDowell, a third team All-CAA selection, and senior PF Marcus Kitts are the two returning starters.

We’ll miss you: PG David Schneider, the heart and soul of the team, and SF Danny Sumner are among three starters who are gone.

Welcome to the program: Five freshmen are on the team, two guards and three forwards. All will have a chance to get some early minutes.

Who they play: Tony Shaver’s team may have lost key pieces, but the non-conference schedule doesn’t reflect it as it’s a difficult one. They will play at Virginia, Richmond, Syracuse (Legends Classic) and North Carolina. They get three home games in the Legends Classic subregional and also host Howard.

Keep up the good work: The Tribe shot 35.1 percent from long range and turned the ball over less than any other CAA team.

Room for improvement: The Tribe forced the fewest turnovers in the CAA and was out-rebounded last season.

Don’t be surprised if: McDowell’s numbers don’t soar, because while he’ll have more responsibility and isn’t surrounded by proven scorers that doesn’t mean they want, or need, him to suddenly score 25 points a night.

Outlook: This season will be a real test for the state of the Tribe. They have made it to the conference title game twice in the past three seasons, and also had a non-conference run last year that had many people talking. Head coach Tony Shaver has been at this long enough to understand that keeping a program at a high level is a different challenge from getting it there in the first place.

The Tribe lose the heart and soul of the team in Schneider, as well as their most talented player in Sumner and a point guard who had a nice senior year in Sean McCurdy. McDowell, who Shaver describes as a natural-born leader, will be the go-to guy on this team. Shaver said the most important thing he can do is lead and be who he is, instead of trying to raise all of his numbers up towards the stratosphere, and given the way this team plays that should come naturally. There are plenty of candidates to complement him on the perimeter, with Kendrix Brown being the primary one. After playing most of last season with a broken bone in his foot, Brown is in good shape and looks ready to be the type of player Shaver thinks he can be. Sophomore Matt Rum is the only other guard with appreciable Division I experience, so it’s safe to say that the backcourt is an area where players need to emerge.

The frontcourt is in better shape, anchored by Marcus Kitts. The lone senior on this team, Kitts finished strong last season and gives them a post player to complement the perimeter attack. JohnMark Ludwick and Kyle Gaillard will both be looked to for increased production, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if freshmen Tim Rusthoven and Fred Heldring got some early chances as well.

The Tribe has another difficult non-conference schedule, which will test this team right away. A repeat of last year’s run seems unlikely given the personnel questions, but no one thought they would have the success they had a year ago.

Northeastern Huskies (20-13, 14-4 Colonial)

Glad to have you back: Senior PG Chaisson Allen, a first team All-CAA selection last season, and sophomore SG-SF Alwayne Bigby, a fellow returning starter.

We’ll miss you: PG-SG Matt Janning, the program’s fourth all-time leading scorer, and three others who were part of the core of the team.

Welcome to the program: Three freshmen should get minutes right away, led by PG Alex Harris.

Who they play: Despite heavy personnel losses, the Huskies non-conference schedule will again be very challenging. They open with Boston University, head to Southern Illinois as part of ESPN’s College Hoops Tip-Off Marathon, and also host Siena and Rhode Island. A road game at Utah State won’t be easy, and they head south to play rebuilding Providence. The Huskies also play in the Cancun Governor’s Cup and UCF Holiday Classic. In CAA play, a three-game road trip beckons in January, and they get Old Dominion only on the road.

Keep up the good work: The Huskies had the best turnover margin in the conference and were second in field goal percentage.

Room for improvement: Only Towson was out-rebounded by a wider margin among CAA teams last season.

Don’t be surprised if: The Huskies don’t completely fall apart despite heavy personnel losses. Besides having a Player of the Year candidate in Allen and a couple of capable holdovers, the Huskies have an excellent coach in Bill Coen.

Outlook: The Huskies suffer significant personnel losses from a senior-laden team, and thus enter this season with some questions. They also came close to losing the coach, as Coen was a finalist for the Siena job. One non-question is Allen, who emerged as a star last season after showing signs of his potential his first two seasons on Huntington Ave. He’ll anchor this team, with sophomores Kauri Black and Alwayne Bigby as two known supporters. A healthy Black should anchor the interior, while Bigby defends well and has a good motor but needs to improve offensively.

The only senior besides Allen, forward Vinny Lima, has had his moments but also inconsistent minutes. At 6’9″ he has some length and has always been an intriguing prospect, but now they need him to live up to that. He’ll certainly have plenty of chances to grab a starting spot up front.

The real barometer of this team will be the sophomore class. Coen said the relatively limited minutes some of them played last season was a result of who they played behind, and he has confidence in this group. Besides Black and Bigby, guards Joel Smith and Jonathan Lee and forward Dinko Marshavelski are likely to see increased minutes. Smith could be the X-factor, as he’s a capable shooter who played limited minutes behind the veteran guards last year.

Freshmen Alex Harris, Alex Bates and Ryan Pierson will all have a chance to play early. Harris comes fresh off a solid year of prep basketball at Bridgton Academy in Maine.

Northeastern has finished at least .500 in CAA play in every season since they joined the conference. That will be a lot tougher to do this year, but if they could do it four years ago they can do it this year since they still have Coen on the bench with a well-deserved new contract.

Hofstra Pride (19-15, 10-8 Colonial)

Glad to have you back: Senior SG Charles Jenkins, the reigning CAA Player of the Year, and senior C Greg Washington, the only other returning starter.

We’ll miss you: PG Chaz Williams, who transferred after making an instant impact as a freshman last season, and two other starters.

Welcome to the program: Fordham transfer Mike Moore and four freshmen come aboard, and junior college transfer Brad Kelleher will also be eligible after the first nine games.

Who they play: The Pride open up the season in the Honda Puerto Rice Tip-Off, where they play North Carolina and either Minnesota or Western Kentucky in the first two games. Only three home games are on the rest of the manageable non-conference slate, which includes a trip to Iona to close it out. When CAA play begins in earnest, three of the first four games are one the road.

Keep up the good work: Hofstra led the conference in field goal percentage defense and was second in rebounding margin.

Room for improvement: Only two teams turned the ball over more than the Pride last season.

Don’t be surprised if: The Pride are at or near the top in scoring once again this season.

Outlook: The off-season wasn’t the best of times for the program with the coaching change and a couple of key players transferring, plus an injury to Nathaniel Lester that will force him to redshirt this year. That leaves the Pride as a wild card in the grand scheme of things.

Fortunately, this team has the best player in the conference in Jenkins to build around. He’s a do-everything player for this team and has embraced being the face of the program. He’ll have backcourt help primarily from a few newcomers, notably Kelleher once he’s eligible, junior college transfer Dwan McMillan and Moore. Sophomore Yves Jules will also need to become more productive this season as well.

The frontcourt will be anchored by Washington, the X-factor for this team. Cassara likes what he’s seen from the CAA’s second-leading shot-blocker last season, and he’s had some good stretches over the course of his career. They need him to be consistent this year because sophomore David Imes is the only other frontcourt player with Division I experience, as the others in the mix will be freshmen Paul Bilbo, Roland Brown and Stephen Nwaukoni.

Besides the personnel questions, the Pride’s relatively manageable non-conference schedule opens with North Carolina and either Minnesota or Western Kentucky. How they play there could set the tone for the season from a confidence standpoint.

Delaware Blue Hens (7-24, 3-15 Colonial)

Glad to have you back: Senior PG Brian Johnson, who missed last season with a knee injury, and four other starters that include classmate and leading scorer Jawan Carter.

We’ll miss you: C Adam Pegg, the team’s tallest player, who transferred.

Welcome to the program: Freshman SG Devon Saddler should get minutes right away and help this team, while fellow freshman PG Kaleb Clyburn is the quarterback of the future.

Who they play: The Blue Hens have six true road games in non-conference play, in addition to a trip to Santa Clara for the Cable Car Classic against the host school and either American or Fordham. They open with three of four on the road, including MAC contender Ohio and Patriot League contender Lafayette, and also play at Villanova. Only three non-conference games are at home, and overall the slate is manageable. A key stretch in CAA play comes early, when they play three straight on the road in mid-January, and they also play three straight at home to start February.

Keep up the good work: The Blue Hens weren’t particularly strong in any statistical area, although they were barely in the bottom half in turnovers as a team without their primary point guard.

Room for improvement: There are plenty, but the big one is on defense as only Towson gave up more points and allowed teams to shoot a better percentage from the field.

Don’t be surprised if: The Blue Hens are a markedly better offensive team and out-rebound opponents with a more experienced frontcourt.

Outlook: This is one of the hardest teams to project this season. The Blue Hens had a rough go of it last season in part from being without Brian Johnson, who they will again be without for about the first month of the season as he suffered another injury to the same knee during early practice. With much of last season’s team back and Johnson returning, and thus allowing Carter to move off the ball again, the Blue Hens figured to be in position to make a good jump.

Monte Ross is high on his young frontcourt, which had plenty of opportunities to develop last season. Sophomores Jamelle Hagins and Kelvin McNeil figure to lead the way, while Hakim McCullar looks ready to be the kind of player some figured he would be last year after transferring from Rhode Island. Hagins looks to have distinguished himself early on. Expectations for McCullar were a little unfair last season, as he sat out after not playing much the prior year, but he got in a good off-season of work back home. Another sophomore, Josh Brinkley, should be in the mix as well.

With the frontcourt appearing to be in reasonably good shape, the backcourt is where this team could be primed to improve. Carter will be better now that he can move off the ball, and the biggest beneficiary of Johnson’s return might be Alphonso Dawson, a talented wing who’s shown flashes of his potential but hasn’t had the consistency to approach All-CAA status. Devon Saddler should play right away and give them a tough competitor on the wing, while Clyburn is the point guard of the future and may be forced into more minutes early on than originally planned. If Clyburn battles through some early growing pains adjusting to Division I and Johnson successfully returns, the injury could wind up being a blessing in disguise.

The Blue Hens must improve at the defensive end, and Ross has said it’s been their first, second and third emphasis, especially since offense is less of a worry with Johnson returning. While they figure to be significantly better at the offensive end, this team won’t start turning a corner until they defend better.

Drexel Dragons (16-16, 11-7 Colonial)

Glad to have you back: Senior PG-SG Gerald Colds, backcourt mate and reigning CAA Rookie of the Year Chris Fouch, and three more who started last year.

We’ll miss you: PG Jamie Harris, the team leader, who will miss this season due to an off-court incident, and forwards Leon Spencer and Evan Neisler.

Welcome to the program: Two freshmen could get plenty of minutes right away, talented PG Frantz Massenat and rugged PF Dartaye Ruffin.

Who they play: The Dragons start off with one of two three-game road stretches, including a trip to Rhode Island. In December, the road stretch is tougher as it starts at Louisville and ends at Syracuse, while they get four home games in non-conference play plus a BracketBusters game at home in February. When CAA play begins in earnest, they play three of four at home before playing four of the next six on the road.

Keep up the good work: Typical of Bruiser Flint’s teams, the Dragons were solid defensively as they were fourth in scoring defense and third in field goal percentage defense.

Room for improvement: Only Delaware shot the ball worse than Drexel last season both from behind the arc and overall.

Don’t be surprised if: The Dragons rebound better than last season despite the loss of two frontcourt contributors.

Outlook: An off-court incident in July involving Harris and junior forward Kevin Phillip made headlines, especially since Harris was a team leader. In light of that, it’s easy to forget that this team has four returning starters, and they could be underestimated, which is a dangerous thing to do with a team like this that will guard you the way Flint’s teams do.

The Dragons still have good guards with Colds and Fouch, who give them more scoring than playmaking. Fouch should move into the starting lineup after coming off the bench last season, and Derrick Thomas should get more minutes after showing some promise last season as well. Harris’ absence may open the door for Massenat, a solid playmaker with good size, to snag the starting point guard spot early on. Flint thinks having veteran guards around him will make Massenat’s adjustment easier.

The frontcourt wasn’t loaded with scorers, but will function well defensively. Junior Samme Givens and sophomore Daryl McCoy started last season, but don’t be surprised if freshman Dartaye Ruffin snags a good number of minutes early on as well as he’s physically mature and does enough fundamentally on offense to be a factor.

A couple of years ago, the Dragons were picked near the bottom before finishing fifth. This year could be something of a repeat if the holdovers grow. Last year’s team lost several close games with young players, and this team will surely be in games all year with the way they will guard. This year some of those close losses may turn into close wins.

Towson Tigers (10-21, 6-12 Colonial)

Glad to have you back: Junior PG Troy Franklin and senior PF Robert Nwankwo lead four returning starters.

We’ll miss you: Top scorers Josh Thornton and Calvin Lee

Welcome to the program: Junior PF Braxton Dupree, a transfer from Maryland, leads a cast of five newcomers that also includes 6’11″ freshman big man Jamel Flash.

Who they play: The Tigers’ non-conference slate is very manageable as most of the games are very winnable. They play just four games at home, while the toughest road games are at George Washington and La Salle. CAA play features three straight at home in mid-January and three straight tough games on the road at the end of the month.

Keep up the good work: Towson was third in scoring and three-point field goal percentage last season.

Room for improvement: The Tigers were the worst defensive team in the conference as they came in last in scoring defense, field goal percentage defense and rebounding margin.

Don’t be surprised if: The Tigers improve immensely on the boards this season.

Outlook: If there’s a sleeper team in the conference, it might be the Tigers. While some expect James Madison to contend despite a bad year last year and Delaware to make a jump with Brian Johnson rejoining a veteran team, few expect much from the Tigers this season. But consider a couple of factors and it would be a surprise, but not a complete shock, if the Tigers were contending for a bye in the conference tournament come February.

The first is that the backcourt played well near the end of the season, and the importance of guards is well-documented. Franklin averaged over 13 points per game in that stretch and RaShawn Polk scored in double figures in eight of the last nine games. As a result, the Tigers won six of 11 to close out the season, leading Kennedy to say, “The way we played in February is the way we have to play. We have to start playing that way right from the beginning.”

Not only did they play better, but they and other perimeter players like Josh Brown and Brian Morris finally developed into roles the coaching staff could work with, which should at least mean less different starting lineups.

The second factor is that the frontcourt should be much better after it flat-out stunk last year save for Robert Nwankwo, who was a defensive star but an offensive liability. Dupree figures to start right away and be this team’s best player. Kennedy said he’s been dominant in practices, even going up against Nwankwo. Rebounding and defense killed them last year, but they will have a unit with more size up front. They could start Erique Gumbs, Isaiah Philmore and Dupree, who all stand at least 6’7″ and weigh at least 230 pounds, although Nwankwo is in the mix to start. They also add more length with 6’10″ freshman Jamel Flash. Size alone won’t solve the rebounding issue, but more size won’t hurt.

The Tigers’ non-conference schedule has one thing in mind: gaining confidence. Kennedy made no bones about it, and if the Tigers take care of business and bring confidence into CAA play, they might be a little more than just a tough out.

Georgia State Panthers (12-20, 5-13 Colonial)

Glad to have you back: Senior PG-SG Marques Johnson, the lone returning starter, and three reserve guards who played regular minutes last season.

We’ll miss you: PG Joe Dukes, who anchored the team the last couple of seasons, and three other starters.

Welcome to the program: Big man Eric Buckner leads three junior college transfers that join four freshmen.

Who they play: The Panthers play perhaps the softest non-conference slate of any CAA team, and understandably so considering the many new faces. They play five games at home and don’t play a high-major at all.

Keep up the good work: The Panthers were fourth in rebounding margin and only VCU forced more turnovers among CAA teams.

Room for improvement: Georgia State was last in scoring and assists, and lost their best player, who led the team in both categories.

Don’t be surprised if: The Panthers are in most of the games, which has been the case just about every year under Rod Barnes.

Outlook: The Panthers are basically starting over this season, as there aren’t many familiar faces on this team. Four starters are gone, as are basically all of the transfers who came in when Barnes first took over the program, so there’s a new look with this team overall. Don’t let the six juniors and four seniors fool you – this is not an experienced team. Barnes said practices have been very competitive thus far, which shouldn’t surprise anyone, and few if any roles are set.

Johnson is the main familiar face, and he’s finally at a place where he feels at home as this is his third school. He figures to be the team leader. Jihad Ali figures to grab another starting spot as he appears to have picked up right where he left off at the end of last season, and if they go with three guards senior Dante Curry could grab the other perimeter spot. Curry has had a few big games but has lacked consistency, with nagging injuries not helping.

The frontcourt is more of a work in progress, as it is full of new faces along with sophomore James Vincent. Vincent is in better condition this year and is more confident, and could grab one starting spot. Add junior college transfer Eric Buckner, who also stands 6’10″ and who Barnes is high on, and the Panthers certainly won’t lack size inside.

The non-conference schedule is very manageable and will give this young team chances to get wins and confidence early on. They won’t be easy games, but Barnes notes that helping out is that they also get more practice time in between some early games that will allow for teaching from a game just played. The Panthers have been competitive even when they didn’t have much talent, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if this team is in a lot of games but doesn’t quite pull out wins.

UNC Wilmington Seahawks (9-22, 5-13 Colonial)

Glad to have you back: Senior PG Chad Tomko and two other starters.

We’ll miss you: PF John Fields, who transferred to Tennessee, and two other starters.

Welcome to the program: New head coach Buzz Peterson welcomes four newcomers, three of whom are freshmen.

Who they play: The Seahawks will have a trial by fire in non-conference play as there will be several tough games. They open with five games in 12 days that start at Florida in the Global Sports Invitational, and later go to Ohio State in that event as well. They also play at George Washington and Wake Forest, and home games against Morehead State, Radford and Illinois State don’t figure to be easy wins, either. Early in CAA play, they have three straight at home before playing five of seven on the road.

Keep up the good work: Opponents shot just over 30 percent from long range against the Seahawks last season.

Room for improvement: There are many, but perhaps few are more urgent than taking better care of the ball as the Seahawks turned the ball over more than any other CAA team and had the worst assist-to-turnover ratio in the conference.

Don’t be surprised if: It’s a long season in Wilmington, because a couple of factors – lots of player turnover and a coaching change – are indications that could happen.

Outlook: New head coach Buzz Peterson is preaching patience, and understandably so. The Seahawks were struggling from a personnel standpoint before John Fields’ transfer, and with a coaching change that dragged on it was not easy for Peterson to recruit for this year so late in the game.

The Seahawks do have a couple of holdovers in the backcourt, which isn’t a bad place to start. Tomko will do everything he can to help this team win, and classmate Ahmad Grant will also start in the backcourt after being second on the team in scoring, and he finished strong by averaging over 13 points per game in the final seven games of the season. There is depth as well, with sophomore Keith Rendleman also back after starting last year and Trevor Deloach and Darryl Felder also back.

The frontcourt is a different story, with two of the four who are primarily frontcourt players being freshmen in Donte Morales and Shayne Reybold. Sophomore Matt Wilson is 6’11″ but played limited minutes last season; he will need to improve, and Rendleman is likely to play more in the frontcourt than the perimeter or be part of a lineup of four perimeter players with one inside. Peterson likes what he’s seen from Wilson thus far and will find ways to use him in the high post at the offensive end.

Peterson has had a successful career to this point and has long thought highly of this school. He’s happy to be in Wilmington and his track record suggests he’ll move the program forward. In the immediate, though, his words of patience should be heeded by fans, because a long season may be ahead in 2010-11.

Conference Outlook

There are plenty of familiar faces in the CAA this year. In theory, the conference projects to be better overall, with a healthy dose of competition for the top spot as well as some spots in the middle. In particular, the teams projected fifth through ninth could go almost any way one can imagine, and it wouldn’t be a complete shock if one of the teams picked near the bottom found their way to the middle of the pack.

What the season didn’t see is a second team in the NCAA Tournament. Although a couple of teams had good non-conference wins and relatively good profiles, no one joined Old Dominion in the NCAA Tournament. Northeastern and William & Mary made the NIT, while VCU and Hofstra made the CBI (VCU won it) and George Mason made the Collegeinsider.com Tournament. The general feeling was that the Monarchs had a good chance at an at-large bid if someone knocked them off in the CAA Tournament.

The CAA set a record with the six postseason teams, one more than the five from last season.

The conference had a clear top seven teams and a good drop-off to the five teams behind them in the standings. All seven teams won at least 10 CAA games, the first time that has ever happened. Hofstra, who finished seventh, got there largely from a great month of February. There wasn’t a dominant team among the top seven, and while the bottom five were clearly a notch below them, every one of those teams scored a win over a team in the top seven. All five teams were there for a reason: Towson lacked any semblance of frontcourt play, Georgia State was consistently inconsistent, UNC Wilmington could never get their offense going, and injuries hit James Madison and Delaware hard.

This year was one where juniors fared well, which lends some hope for next year. Nine of the 15 all-conference players were juniors, with seven of them placing on the first or second team. One will not be back, as VCU big man Larry Sanders declared for the NBA Draft and signed with an agent, but having eight all-conference juniors return for one more year bodes well.

One subject of discussion around the conference tournament centered on the future of it. Right now, the CAA Tournament is set through 2012 in Richmond, but the condition of the Richmond Coliseum is the elephant in the proverbial room. Sources say the city is likely to put some money into it, but commissioner Tom Yeager had a long list of issues with the facility and it’s unlikely enough money will be put into it to resolve an appreciable number of them. The current economic conditions have something to do with it, but there’s also a question of the bang for the buck the city would get as the Coliseum is used for more than just the CAA Tournament. For a lot of reasons, it’s hard to imagine the tournament being held outside of Richmond, and that was the general sentiment expressed, but that possibility may be explored more in the months ahead as the conference looks for where it will be held following 2012.

Final Standings

Conference Tournament

The first round saw just one upset, with No. 11 James Madison sending Drexel home early. A night later, the Dukes threatened to do the same thing to William & Mary before a big second half by Danny Sumner and a clutch shot late by David Schneider put the favorites in the semifinals. Hofstra narrowly escaped in the first round against Georgia State, then took Northeastern to the brink in the quarterfinals in a double overtime loss. The semifinals were terrific games, with Old Dominion knocking off arch-rival VCU and William & Mary handing Northestern a heart-breaking loss to set up the title game matchup. William & Mary made it a game after a slow start, but the favorites had too much and took home the title and the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. It marked eighth time in the last nine years that the top seed has won the tournament.

Postseason Awards

Player of the Year: Charles Jenkins, Hofstra

Rookie of the Year: Chris Fouch, Drexel

Defensive Player of the Year: Larry Sanders, VCU

Coach of the Year: Tony Shaver, William & Mary

All-Conference Team

Chaisson Allen, Jr. G, Northeastern

Matt Janning, Sr. G, Northeastern

Charles Jenkins, Jr. G, Hofstra

Gerald Lee, Sr. F, Old Dominion

Larry Sanders, Jr. F-C, VCU

Season Highlights

• CAA teams were 80-76 in non-conference play, highlighted by seven wins over teams from the six power conferences, nine more against Atlantic 10 teams and a 4-1 mark against Conference USA opponents.

• Old Dominion became the third CAA team in the last five years to win at least one NCAA Tournament game. It was the first time since 2007 that happened, and coincidentally, all three teams were a No. 11 seed.

• William & Mary had the best non-conference run of any CAA school. The Tribe had a difficult schedule, but pulled off wins at Wake Forest and Maryland and also beat Richmond at home.

• Northeastern had a tough non-conference slate, and early on they lost a lot of close games. But late in December, they started an 11-game winning streak that carried them well into CAA play.

• Charles Jenkins could always score, he rebounded well for his size and people knew he was unselfish. But this year, he found a consistent jump shot, especially from long range as he was fourth in the conference at 40.9 percent, and that helped him become the conference’s Player of the Year.

• In a bad year for James Madison, Denzel Bowles was the big bright spot as he led the conference in scoring and rebounding.

What we expected, and it happened: Old Dominion was the conference’s best team. They were the preseason favorites, and for much of the conference season was on top in the standings. The Monarchs rode the leadership of Gerald Lee and a well-balanced lineup to the NCAA Tournament and a first round win.

What we expected, and it didn’t happen: James Madison finished near the bottom. A torn ACL ended Devon Moore’s season before it began, and that didn’t help since he was a big reason the Dukes surprised many last year. The Dukes never really got untracked, and head coach Matt Brady felt the team didn’t improve over the course of the season the way he hoped they would.

What we didn’t expect, and it happened: William & Mary was a contender and in the discussion for an NCAA Tournament at-large bid. Certainly, one had to figure the Tribe would be closer to the team of two seasons ago than that of last season, but surely no one had them picking up the aforementioned non-conference wins and then getting to the conference championship game for the second time in three years.

Team(s) on the rise: George Mason and VCU. The Patriots showed their youth at times this season and might have overachieved a little, although they certainly weren’t lacking talent. The Rams had some growing pains at first adjusting to new head coach Shaka Smart and life without Eric Maynor, but they took advantage of the CBI to grow as a team and improve from the regular season. Larry Sanders is gone a year early, but the Rams have a year under Smart and will return a lot next season.

Team(s) on the decline: Georgia State. It’s hard to put anyone in this category with so many teams having a lot of players back, and if we’re talking about projections for next season, it would be easy to put Northeastern here because the Huskies lose so much. But the Huskies are in a good position looking a little past next year even if they take a step back. Georgia State, on the other hand, doesn’t appear to be getting better. They looked to be a team on the rise before 2008-09 and didn’t hit their stride until late in the season, and never seemed to get untracked this season. What next season holds is anyone’s guess, but most figured this team would be off and running by now after all the promise Rod Barnes’ first season had.

2010-11 CAA Outlook

2010-11 could be a banner year for the conference just based on returning talent. Of the 15 all-conference players, 10 will return next season, including the Player of the Year, and all but one from the All-Defensive team will return. But go to the statistical leaders and it gets better, because the top four scorers and six of the top ten all return, along with 11 of the top 13 rebounders and eight of the top ten assist men. For good measure, the top five marksmen from long range will return as well.

It doesn’t stop there, as many teams will return a high percentage of starters and key players, while the two bottom teams in the conference will each return a starter who missed this season due to injury. Old Dominion will have a strong chance to repeat as champions with only two departing seniors, although Gerald Lee will not be a small loss. George Mason and VCU will bring back most of their teams and should be contenders, and Hofstra will also return much of its team but has not had a smooth off-season in the coaching department. Northeastern and William & Mary will take hits in the personnel department, but neither should fall far and both are in good positions long-term.

It all adds up to reason for optimism in the conference next season. Coaches expressed plenty of that at Media Day last October, and chances are there will be even more of it five months from now.

• William & Mary is not likely to get an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament, but the Tribe should at least be in the discussion.  Just look at their three big non-conference wins and realize how much shelf life they still have.  Maryland tied Duke for the ACC regular season title, Wake Forest is now a lock in some NCAA Tournament projections, and Richmond finished third in the Atlantic 10 and won 24 games.  A couple of losses knocked their RPI back into the 50s, but the Tribe beat some quality opponents, and the teams that are on the bubble have proven they can lose but not necessarily win against top teams.

• After the loss to Old Dominion, Pat Kennedy said that Towson‘s frontcourt issues will be addressed with who the Tigers have coming in next season, which includes Maryland transfer Braxton Dupree as he will be eligible.  Whether or not he will coach them is an open question.  Speculation that he may be out as coach has been out there, especially since Towson is planning to open a new arena.  Since a five-game winning streak early in the 2000-01 season, the Tigers have never won more than three games in a row, which they have done three times.  In six seasons at Towson, Kennedy’s record is 68-115, with no season at .500 or better.
• Although they had a nice season, one must remember that George Mason is still a young team.  The Patriots looked it in the grand scheme of things, as they had clear ups and downs.  They were hot in January, winning eight in a row after being blown out at Northeastern, but they went 2-6 in February.
  “I told the team after the game I thought we were really building something very, very good in January, and we somehow lost that magic,” said head coach Jim Larranaga.  “We were 8-1 at the time, we had four or five guys in double figures every night, and we were playing good team defense.  As February rolled around, I don’t know if it was fatigue, we’ve got a young team, I don’t know if we just lost our focus or shooting touch, or quite frankly, the opponents.  We played some very good teams – Old Dominion, William & Mary, Northeastern – in the month of February and lost to each of those guys.”
• When Chaz Williams fouled out on Saturday, Hofstra was a different team.  Charles Jenkins may be their best player and the Player of the Year, but Williams is a jet and can make this team go.  Tom Pecora knew that meant Jenkins and others who are better off the ball now had to handle the ball, and there was certainly a difference.
• Pecora added that if a postseason tournament comes calling, there’s a good chance the Pride will accept.  The Pride finished seventh, but won 19 games with only two losses to Northeastern after a January 23 loss at Drexel.  An important consideration, based on Pecora’s comments, is the chance for his underclassmen to play more.
  “We passed (on the CollegeInsider Tournament) because we had six seniors,” Pecora noted.  “I think this year, with five freshmen, if we get that opportunity, we might do it.  That’s something we’ll look into.”
• James Madison finished the season with a 13-20 record, one certainly not helped by injuries.  But one injury in particular probably hurt more than others, the loss of Devon Moore to a torn ACL in October.  He was the main man among the young players who quickly helped change the culture last year.  While he alone might not have meant 10-15 more wins for the Dukes, a few things might have been different.  Instead, head coach Matt Brady didn’t have fond recollections of the season after their season-ending loss on Saturday night.
  “This was a frustrating group for a lot of reasons,” the second-year head coach said.  “As a basketball coach, all you want your team to do is improve, have steady improvement.  This team didn’t show steady improvement.”
  In adding that his team didn’t always play hard, Brady didn’t leave himself or his staff out of the loop of accountability for the way the season went.  He feels he and his staff could have done a better job getting more out of this team.
  “It doesn’t change my thinking going forward as the head coach of this program that we’ve got to be able to push more buttons with this group next year,” he added.  “We’ve got to play harder, because this league is too good.”

“We didn’t want to go out like that,” said senior guard David Schneider, who hit a key shot that many will talk about for a while.  “I think a lot of it had to do with team chemistry.  We battled back pretty much every game this entire season, and it really showed tonight just how close we are.  It wasn’t one single person bringing us back, it was all of us.”

Although Schneider said the entire team did, there was one player who sparked a lot of it.  Senior Danny Sumner, arguably the team’s most talented player, has had his ups and downs in his career.  But on Saturday night, he came alive in the second half when the team needed him the most.  It was not unlike the way Northeastern made tough plays to pull off a double overtime win in the game right before this one.

James Madison started the second half well, at one point running their lead up to 44-30 with under 16 minutes to go.  Sumner hit a three-pointer, and Schneider followed suit before a short jumper by Sumner and two free throws by Quinn McDowell brought the Tribe within four.  Later, another three-pointer by Sumner brought the Tribe within two, and with 5:06 left he hit another to give William & Mary its first lead since they were up 10-9 in the early going.

“We were down by 14 and I was thinking we had to make a run,” Sumner said.

Even with all of that, the play that might have made the big difference came less than two minutes later.  With the shot clock running down after a shot was blocked, the Tribe tracked down a loose ball and they got it to Schneider, who beat the shot clock with a deep three-pointer that found the bottom of the net for a 58-54 lead.  Those who have seen the Tribe this year probably found it fitting, and while Sumner said he never doubted it was going once it left his hand, there was another who did and saw its impact.

“When he caught it, quite frankly, I thought it was going in because those plays happen,” said James Madison head coach Matt Brady.  “Broken plays, with a senior taking the basketball, those plays change games.”

It certainly did that, as the Tribe would score five more to go up 63-54 before closing it out.

William & Mary surprised many with the regular season they had, as they were picked 10^th in the preseason poll of CAA coaches, sports information directors and media.  They picked up big wins in non-conference play and earned a bye in the tournament for the first time since it expanded to 12 teams.  They’re happy to pull out the win in a manner similar to some others they have had this year, but they’re not content just yet.

“We want to win this thing,” said head coach Tony Shaver.  “We’re not happy that we have a bye, we’re not happy to win the first game.  A couple of years ago we knocked on the door of this thing, and one of these days we’re going to knock it down.”

Shaver talked about how resilient this team is and how they never give up, something Schneider cited as well.  The Tribe had a target on their backs when they entered CAA play, and there were doubters after a home loss to UNC-Wilmington in early January and three straight losses later that month.  Some may have wondered if wins over Wake Forest, Maryland and Richmond were flukes.  But they battled back to earn the No. 3 seed, and now they hope to take more steps forward in what has already been a historic and record-setting season.  Their seniors don’t want to go out any differently.

Almost two weeks later, Connecticut has wins against Villanova and West Virginia — two marquee wins to brag about, in addition to the No. 2 toughest schedule. As a result of the Huskies’ recent hot streak, Connecticut makes its debut in the tournament as a No. 8 seed. Yes, teams can go from the wrong side of the bubble to a solid middle-of-the-road seed in less than two weeks. With remaining games against Louisville, Notre Dame and South Florida, Connecticut has an opportunity to build a six-game winning streak heading into the Big East Tournament and move up the seed chart.

While Connecticut rises, William & Mary continues to falter. After dropping a must-win BracketBusters game at Iona, the Tribe returned home to lose to Towson, ranked No. 273 in the RPI. That loss gives William & Mary three losses to teams in the bottom 150 of the RPI. That’s just too many losses to bad teams, which neutralizes the strength of quality wins against Wake Forest, Richmond and Maryland. Unless the Tribe make a run to capture the Colonial Athletic Association’s automatic bid, the Tribe will once again fail to reach the NCAA Tournament. The team has never gone to the Big Dance since it started in 1939.

Here are some of the other highlights of Mock Tournament 3.0.

• The No. 1 seeds remain the same, but watch Purdue’s performance without Robbie Hummel.
• Baylor and Missouri inch higher in seeding, which reflects the strength of the Big 12 Conference this season.
• Florida State and Virginia Tech are entering bubble trouble, while Louisville can start to feel a little more secure.
• Florida is coming on strong at the right time of year, and Utah State and UTEP are getting closer to earning an at-large bid if they don’t win their conferences’ automatic bids.

Without further ado, here are the Mock Tournament 3.0 seeds. UAB and Cincinnati in the tournament? Florida and Charlotte out? Am I crazy or right on point? Submit a comment to share your thoughts and opinions.

For comparison, also check out Mock Tournament 1.0 and Mock Tournament 2.0. Also, check out a map of NCAA Tournament sites and the schedule for all rounds of the tournament.

According to the RPI, the CAA is the 12^th best conference in the country. But the conference’s top teams lost to the cream of the crop from the Missouri Valley Conference, Southern Conference and Western Athletic Conference. William & Mary, which has one of the CAA’s best profiles for an at-large bid, suffered the most damaging loss in a road game against Iona, ranked No. 92 in the RPI, by 16 points. The only elite CAA team to win was VCU, which won a home game against Akron, ranked No. 100 in the RPI. The rest of the CAA pack didn’t fare much better as the conference ended BracketBusters with a 3-9 record.

Old Dominion, Northeastern and William & Mary had the most to gain in their BracketBusters match ups. But Old Dominion couldn’t solve Northern Iowa’s suffocating defense en route to a 71-62 loss. Despite the defeat, the Monarchs have a solid résumé anchored by a marquee win at Georgetown. Old Dominion doesn’t have too many other great wins to brag about, but the Moncarchs have notched good wins against Charlotte, William & Mary (twice) and Marshall. As co-leader of the CAA, Old Dominion should receive an invitation to the NCAA Tournament even if the Monarchs lose early in the CAA Tournament.

Unfortunately for the CAA, the Monarchs are the only team that can feel comfortable about their NCAA Tournament prospects. William & Mary has stumbled too many times since racking up non-conference victories against Richmond, Wake Forest and Maryland. The Tribe has two ugly losses to James Madison and UNC-Wilmington, both of which have RPIs worse than 200. The loss to Iona in the BracketBusters event, which was televised on ESPNU, might be the death knell for the Tribe’s tournament aspirations.

After starting 2-7, Northeastern had won 16 of 18 games heading into its home match up against Louisiana Tech in the BracketBusters event. The best wins were against Kent State and CAA-foes like Old Dominion and VCU. The Huskies likely needed to beat Louisiana Tech to prove that their turnaround was complete. However, a three-point loss drops Northeastern to 18-10 and likely in need of the CAA’s automatic bid to reach the NCAA Tournament.

The lone member of the CAA elite to win a BracketBusters game was VCU, which stands at No. 61 in the RPI. The Rams have a couple of quality wins against Rhode Island and Old Dominion. But those are offset by bad losses to James Madison and Western Michigan. VCU closes the regular season at Old Dominion, which is an opportunity to pick up a quality road win. That would be the team’s fifth win against the RPI top 50. Even if the Rams enter the CAA Tournament with a 21-7 record, VCU almost certainly would need to win the automatic bid to reach the Big Dance.

Come Selection Sunday, the second-to-last weekend of February will likely be one of the big reasons why the CAA remains a one-bid conference when the selection committee reveals the brackets at the end of the second weekend of March.

At 19-7 as of Feb. 17, William & Mary will enter the CAA Tournament as one of the favorites to score the conference’s automatic bid, which would make Selection Sunday far less stressful for coach Tony Shaver and his Tribe. William & Mary’s biggest competition will come from Old Dominion, which claims two of the Tribe’s five CAA losses. Two of those conferences losses could jeopardize an otherwise spectacular season.

Entering conference play, William & Mary sported a top 35 RPI on the strength of three huge wins against Richmond, Wake Forest and Maryland. The Tribe took out the two ACC foes on the road, too, to goose the RPI even higher. In addition, William & Mary served notice in its first CAA game by taking out VCU, a perennial CAA favorite.

However, the Tribe sputtered against UNC-Wilmington and James Madison, two teams with an RPI below 200. Those are ugly losses that might stick out like a sore thumb to selection committee members. But that would be a disservice to William & Mary and trivialize the team’s fantastic non-conference wins. And the Tribe hasn’t slacked off much in conference play. As of Feb. 17, the Tribe remains in the RPI top 50, ranked No. 48, and are 3-3 against the four other top CAA teams.

Before William & Mary starts thinking about setting school history with its first trip to the NCAA Tournament, the Tribe will likely celebrate another rare feat. With one more win, the Tribe will notch its 20th win of the season, which would be only the third time in team history they reached that total. With Iona, Towson and a revenge game at UNC-Wilmington, the Tribe could easily have 22 wins entering the conference tournament.

If William & Mary reaches the semifinals of the conference tournament and loses to Old Dominion for a third time this season, the second week of March will seem like an eternity leading to Selection Sunday. The Tribe has a profile that looks better than bubble teams like Wichita State, Mississippi and Seton Hall. However, some bubble teams, like Connecticut, Louisville and Marquette, have the luxury of notching a marquee win against top 10 competition. Will the selection committee dock William & Mary because the Tribe don’t play in the Big East? If the Tribe can get to 23 wins, committee members would be making a huge mistake in taking a middle-of-the-pack major conference team over a mid-major powerhouse that has proven it can hang with the big boys from power conferences.

As we enter the middle of the big five-day stretch with three games for each team (save for Drexel and VCU, who play their third game of the stretch on Thursday), there is some symmetry in the standings as three teams are 2-0, six are 1-1 and three are 0-2. But that’s not all. After five of the six games played in December went to the road team, the home teams had their revenge on Saturday as only Drexel pulled out a road win at Hofstra.

On Monday, the earliest game of the day is the only matchup of 2-0 teams as Georgia State visits George Mason at 5 p.m.

Husky Guards Lead Them to 2-0

BOSTON – It’s not a surprise that Northeastern is likely to go as their guards go, especially since that can be said of a lot of teams. On Saturday, we saw Exhibit A of that as Matt Janning and Chaisson Allen led the Huskies to a 60-44 win over William & Mary.

Janning had an excellent shooting game as he scored a game-high 22 points on 7-9 shooting, including 5-7 from long range. He did most of the damage in a couple of stretches, most notably in the first half when he scored the last 12 points of a 16-0 run that saw the Huskies take the lead for good. The first nine came on three shots from deep, then a conventional three-point play finished it.

Janning didn’t get a shot off in the second half until 13 minutes in, but it was a big three-pointer that put the Huskies up by double digits for the remainder of the game.

“He had a couple of shots in that second half that were just daggers,” William & Mary head coach Tony Shaver said of Janning.

The other player Shaver was quick to mention, Allen, came through in the interim. Allen is starting to show the improved jump shot that was evident in early practice, and had it on display at a couple of key moments in the second half when the shot clock ran down. That helped them fend off the Tribe until they could pull away in the final minutes.

“I thought he played a terrific game,” head coach Bill Coen said of Allen, who had 12 points and eight rebounds. “From a defensive perspective, he really guarded for us and set the tempo, and then on the backboard. When you get eight rebounds from the point guard spot, that’s a bonus.”

The Huskies need both players to lead the way if they are to win. Coen said if that happens, other players can do what they do best and things have a better chance to fall into place from there. The captain can see the confidence Allen is developing with his jumper, as well as its importance.

“It’s the biggest thing for the whole team, if he can knock down that shot, it’s going to open up everything else,” said Janning. “If he’s playing well, that’s going to get us going.”

Tribe Faces Difficult Change of Pace

William & Mary played just four games in December, closing the month out with two games in the last 25 days. It’s partly due to having to schedule around the school’s two weeks of final exams, whereas most schools have one week. As a result, November was a packed month, and now they go from that long stretch without much game action to playing four games in eight days.

The Tribe didn’t begin it well, losing 60-44 at Northeastern in a game where they struggled offensively. They shot 34 percent, and Shaver was quick to note that their top two scorers, Danny Sumner and David Schneider, combined to go 3-16. Chris Darnell and Peter Stein didn’t do much in the frontcourt as well, getting just seven shots combined. Stein had a solid four-game stretch heading into Saturday’s game where he was finally coming alive offensively, something Shaver thought would happen this season.

One player they got a good game from is emerging freshman Quinn McDowell. He followed up a double-double against Harvard with 12 points on 4-5 shooting on Saturday, and his minutes look like they will continue to go up as he has now posted double figures in scoring in the last two games.

“We expected great things out of Quinn, really,” Shaver said. “He’s what we need a little bit more of right now, he’s good in all phases of the game.”

The Tribe’s first CAA game came against VCU last month, and after playing at Northeastern, they return home to play Old Dominion, which was also projected by many to finish in the top three, on Monday before a visit to UNC-Wilmington and a return home against James Madison. While the VCU game came last month, it’s nonetheless a challenging stretch to start, especially when the Northeastern game changes up the pace of games played.

“We have to be mentally tough enough to deal with it,” said Shaver. “Our first three conference games are against probably the best three teams in our league. It’ll be a great measuring stick for us, and we’re going to see what we’ve got to get better at to get back to the top.”

Other Notes

• Shaver added that the Tribe may sit Sean McCurdy, who has been hit with multiple injuries, for a couple of weeks in the interest of getting more from him at the right time. The junior guard, who transferred from Arkansas, played in just his sixth game of the season against Northeastern on Saturday and had his struggles, scoring five points on 2-6 shooting with four turnovers. Then he got hurt again in the final minute.   “It’s killed him, it’s killed us,” said Shaver of the injuries. “We may just have to sit him down for 2-3 weeks to get his body healthy and help us down the stretch.”
• Georgia State had lost four in a row and seven of eight before knocking off Old Dominion on Saturday. The Panthers’ lone wins in the last nine games have been against CAA teams, and it will be interesting to see if they are now rounding into form as there are some bad losses in the non-conference slate.
• Delaware’s win over VCU was the team’s fifth in six games and the first in five against VCU for head coach Monte Ross. Jawan Carter has now scored in double figures in 13 straight games after he didn’t in the first game of the season.
• In Towson’s win over James Madison, it was an unexpected player who came up big. Senior Rocky Coleman, who is basically a bit player as he averages nine minutes per game, scored 12 points in 19 minutes off the bench.
• UNC-Wilmington has lost eight straight games after Saturday’s blowout loss at George Mason, which is their biggest CAA loss ever. The trouble spot was defense again: the Patriots shot nearly 70 percent from the floor in the second half to blow open what was a 10-point game at the half, and they shot nearly 62 percent for the game. What bothered head coach Benny Moss was what led to the number.  “This team has been competing hard, but tonight’s effort was not up to par,” said Moss. “We didn’t give it everything we had and that’s inexcusable.”