Green Bay Phoenix 2011-12 Preview

Green Bay Phoenix (14-18, 8-10)

Projected starting five:

Fr. G Keifer Sykes
Sr. G Steve Baker
So. C Alec Brown
Sr. F Jarvis Williams
So. F Daniel Turner

Important departures:

Rahmon Fletcher: 15.7 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 3.1 apg
Bryquis Perine: 11.2 ppg, 2.3 rpg. 2.8 apg

Starters Rahmon Fletcher and Bryquis Perine both graduated. Reserve forward Greg LeSage (2.5 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 0.4 apg) also graduated.

% returning scoring and rebounding:

Scoring: 48 percent
Rebounding: 69 percent

The Phoenix return three starters: Alec Brown, Jarvis Williams and Daniel Turner.

Additions:

Aaron Armstead is a freshman guard from Illinois who was named to the Associated Press Class 2A All-State First Team in Illinois. Jared Dimakos is a freshman walk-on guard from Illinois. One-star recruit Josh Humphrey is a freshman guard from Illinois. Greg Mays is a freshman forward from Illinois who is not expected to contribute much immediately. Keifer Sykes is a freshman guard from Illinois who was a McDonald’s All-American nominee. Terry Johnson is a transfer from Illinois State who will play guard for the Phoenix after sitting out last season.

Schedule highlights:

The Phoenix’s biggest nonconference matchup is against Wisconsin. In Horizon League play, the Phoenix face a tough three-game stretch against Butler, Valparaiso and Milwaukee.

Prediction: The Phoenix will finish fifth. Their talented rebounders will help them control many games in a size-challenged Horizon League.

Next: Loyola-Chicago Ramblers

Back to Horizon League preview

Horizon League Quarterfinals – Detroit Frustrates Green Bay, Milwaukee Takes Down Cleveland State

Detroit Frustrates Green Bay

INDIANAPOLIS – For Detroit it was part big man in the middle and part penetrating guards and part taking Green Bay’s leading scorer out of his game. All of this added up to a 62-53 win for the Titans in the Horizon League Championship quarter-final game.

Green Bay’s Rahmon Fletcher came in averaging 17.1 ppg and when the buzzer sounded he had just three points going 1-10 from the field.

The big man part for Detroit was 6’ 10” Eli Holman. He muscled in 16 points and pulled down 11 rebounds.

Detroit’s penetrating guards were Woody Payne and Chase Simon. Payne scored seven points and registered five assists. For Simon it was five points and three assists.

Part I, holding Fletcher’s scoring down was what Detroit coach Ray McCallum thought was the key to their win.

“Or focus was on him. Paying attention to Fletcher and slowing him down.”

The scoring started for Detroit (20-13) when Holman slammed home a dunk at the 18:37 mark and from that 2-0 lead the Titans never trailed in the game.

“One thing our coach preached to us, was going to the glass and I know I’m good at that, going to the glass,” said Holman.

The Phoenix got the score down to one point twice in the first half the last time on a 3-pointer by Troy Cotton with 13:52 left.

The Titans did get the lead up as high as eight points at 24-16 with 6:30 left, but Green Bay (21-12) kept fighting and when Seth Evans hit a 3-pointer with 34 seconds left they briefly got it two within two points at 28-26 before Thomas Kennedy hit a 3-pointer with three seconds left to push their halftime to five at 31-26.

In the second half Green Bay never got closer than five points.

“Without a question, a disappointing and frustrating loss. The key word is frustrating. Give Detroit credit for that, they took us out of what we wanted to do offensively and we got frustrated,” said Kowalczyk.

Milwaukee Takes Down Cleveland State

INDIANAPOLIS – The nightcap was similar to the first game only this time it was Milwaukee scoring the first basketball and going wire-to-wire to win 82-75 over Cleveland State.

The Panthers spread their scoring around with six players scoring in double digits.

It did get a little exciting in the second half. With Milwaukee leading by 20 points at 62-42, Cleveland State’s Norris Cole drove down the lane and made a layup. That led to 13 straight points by the Vikings to make it 64-55 with 5:58 left in the game.

Finally a layup by Milwaukee’s Anthony Hill at the 4:46 mark got the score back up to double figures at 66-55. Cleveland State (16-17) spent the rest of the game whittling the score down to the final deficit of seven.

“We responded, our guys responded with layups to break the pressure,” said Milwaukee coach Rob Jeter.

Panther player Ja’Rob McCallum also pointed out that they also kicked the ball out when pressured.

“We usually have a guy on the baseline and our bigs are in and out flashing high post.”

Cleveland State’s coach Gary Water agreed that going inside was the difference in this game.

“They could go inside anytime they wanted and get a basket,” Waters explained. “Anytime we made a run and went at them, they would go right to the heart of our defense.”

The first half saw Milwaukee (20-13) go up by as many as 11 points before ending the half up by eight points at 32-24.

Milwaukee’s balances scoring was led by Hill and McCallum with 14 points. Ricky Franklin had 13 points, Ryan Haggerty had 12 points, James Eayers had 11 points, with seven rebounds and Jason Everkamp pitched in 10 points.

Cleveland State’s Tim Kamczyc led all scorers with 20 points, Cole had 16 points, Jeremy Montgomery had 15 points and Lance James had 13 points.

Quarterfinal Notes

• Wright State coach Brad Brownell had his team practice on Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday was an off day, then they practiced Thursday in Dayton and Friday for 90 minutes at Hinkle Fieldhouse. Brownell wasn’t sure if having a week off was a good thing or not. No games for a week, is good for his team, which is down two players due to injuries, so his team will be well rested. But playing either Detroit or Green Bay after they played two games might have them in a flow and his team a little rusty. The Raiders worked on things for each team. Today Wright State spent the bulk of their practice today working on their half court offense.

• Butler coach Brad Stevens had the same practice schedule as Wright State going on Monday and Tuesday, Thursday and Friday, with Wednesday off. Stevens spent this week watching game films against his possible opponents, Milwaukee and Cleveland State. He also watched some film of them playing teams that he thought might be similar to Butler’s style of play. Stevens didn’t reveal anything different his team was doing before their semi-final game.

• This is Detroit’s first winning season in six years (18-13, 2003-04) and they reached 20 wins for the first time since going 25-12 in2000-01.

• Detroit leads the overall series with Green Bay 20-19.

• UWM-holds a 20-14 lead in the overall series with Cleveland State.

• Milwaukee advanced to the league championship game the last four times it reached the semifinals.

• Detroit plays Wright State Saturday at 5:15 p.m. The game will be shown on ESPNU on tape-delay at 10 p.m. EST that night.

• Milwaukee plays Butler at 8:00 p.m. The game in on ESPNU.

Big Quote:

“I can tell you we’re going to be in a post-season tournament. We are going to play in the post-season and we’re excited to play in the post-season.” Ted Kowalczy

Horizon Notebook – Looking Towards the End Game

Everybody’s doing it.  Everybody denies it, but everybody’s doing it.  No, not THAT… and not THAT.  Reviewing the schedule, deciding what games we’re sure to win, what games we have little hope to win, and what games can go either way.  At this time of the year, every coaching staff in America is scrutinizing its remaining schedule.  Can we win our conference?  Can we get a conference tournament bye?  Can we get an at-large bid to one tournament to another?  Can we be .500 in conference?  Can we get to 20 wins?  Can we beat anybody?  On the three staffs I was on we told our players to focus on the next opponent, the kid each of our kids was about to guard, how to win tonight.  But we couldn’t help ourselves, so we scrutinized and scrutinized.  And by this point in the season, ESPN commercials notwithstanding, most of the games are in the first and second category (games we really should win, games we really can’t win), and relatively few are in that all-important third group (games that can truly go either way).

In the Horizon, it is more apparent with each passing week that Butler is even better than it was last year, by far the best.  Absent major injury or major miracle, the Bulldogs should not be beaten in conference.  And while the late Al McGuire hated relying on freshmen, Gordon Hayward and Shelvin Mack simply are not like any other freshmen to come on the mid-major scene in recent memory, perhaps not like any pair of freshmen at this level, ever.  (Two nights ago ESPN2′s wonderful studio analyst Hubert Davis called Duke’s 6-8 sophomore forward Kyle Singler the best player-or the most valuable-in the ACC, and this writer has previously called Gordon Hayward “a freshman version of Singler, except that Hayward rebounds better”).

At the other end of the spectrum, I have thought all along that Ray McCallum’s Detroit Titans would win a game in conference, probably at home, though they missed the opportunity I’d circled on New Year’s Day hosting Youngstown State.  Back in the “first division,” Green Bay, Milwaukee, Wright State and Cleveland State should win the rest of their games against everyone else except Butler (what WSU gives up in personnel to the other three, it makes up with superb half-court defense and coaching), but the remaining games among those four should all be competitive.

That said, this writer was shocked by not one but two monstrous upsets this past weekend in the Horizon, upsets with huge impacts on the standings (on what I’ve called the “race for second”).  First on Thursday night, while this writer was in Indianapolis watching Butler dispatch Wisconsin-Green Bay, the other one-loss Wisconsin team, that hailing from Milwaukee, was visiting Homer Drew’s 2-6 Valparaiso team.  Still  playing without sophomore forward Benjamin Fumey (who had arthroscopic knee surgery the previous day), but with Erik Buggs and D’Andre Haskins back from the injury list, the Crusaders played their best defensive game of the year, upsetting the Panthers 63-51.  Valpo forced 20 Milwaukee turnovers, held the Panthers to 29% shooting (24% in the second half), and held three Milwaukee starters-Ricky Franklin, Avery Smith and Anthony Hill-scoreless for the game.  Senior Jake Diebler dominated the game offensively, scoring 19 on 7-13 shooting, including 5-9 from the arc.  No longer concussed but still diminutive freshman Erik Buggs contributed 14 (on 6-10 shooting) and seven huge rebounds.  And not a moment too soon, senior Urule Igbavboa finally went to the boards, grabbing 9 caroms.  The thrashing by Valpo may have had a lingering effect, as Milwaukee was never in the game two days later, falling at Butler 78-48.  The true impact of Valpo’s beating on Milwaukee’s collective psyche will be revealed on Wednesday, when the now three-loss Panthers return home to face eminently beatable Loyola.

Perhaps less surprising to readers of this space, but more so to a national television audience on ESPNU, was the result on Friday night when Cleveland State visited Youngstown State.  Having witnessed YSU’s hard-nosed eight point home loss to Butler on December 6th, and having called sophomore swingman Vytas Sulskis-recently ensconced in Coach Slocum’s doghouse-and junior second guard Kelvin Bright, respectively, “a poor man’s Gordon Hayward” and “a poor man’s Shelvin Mack,” this writer expected a spirited effort by the Penguins in defense of their home court.  What I didn’t expect was yet another subpar defensive effort by Cleveland State, witnessing no Viking except Norris Coles (guarding Bright) defend hard or well.  In the first half, YSU junior forward Sirlester Martin dominated a game played at the Penguins’ preferred pace-slow–scoring 10 of YSU’s 29 points (on 5-9 shooting) and grabbing 5 rebounds.  Martin having shown the way, Penguin senior center Jack Liles joined the first half party, contributing 8 points (on 4-7) and 6 boards, and YSU led by 4 at the break, 29-25.

CSU’s defense was no better in the second half, and while J’Nathan Bullock’s effort kept them close (Bullock finished with 19 points and 14 rebounds), the Vikings could never pull even on the scoreboard.  Remarkably, the Vikes showed little interest in increasing the pace YSU controlled.  And oddly, instead of pressing for much of the game, CSU employed a passive “triangle and two” for a stretch (one of the “two” was Kelvin Bright, second leading scorer in conference play coming into the game-but no Michael Jordan-and at least at one point, the other one of the “two” was low-scoring Tom Parks).  Finally, at the 17:54 mark of the second half, down by 6, the Vikings went to full-court pressure, and while they forced two turnovers the rest of the way and were able to pull within 2, the change-of-pace proved too little too late, and the Vikings fell 64-60.  While the differences on the stat page were Penguin forwards Martin and Liles (15 on 7-13 for Martin with 9 boards, and 18 on 7-11 for Liles with 6 boards), the game was controlled and won by Penguin Coach Jerry Slocum, who got everything he could have hoped for from a roster not nearly as strong as his opponent’s.

The loss was devastating to Cleveland State, as even coming off an oh-for-Wisconsin trip the previous weekend, the 4-4 Vikings still had second place and the coveted double-bye squarely in their sites coming into the game.  Green Bay and Milwaukee had each lost for the second time the night before, and Milwaukee still had Butler to play twice (they then lost in Indianapolis on Saturday);  the Vikings had both Wisconsin schools and Wright State all coming to Wolstein Arena in the second half of the conference season (and only Butler among first division opponents away);  and defender/rebounder/all-around hustler D’Aundray Brown on the mend, soon to return from injury.  Only a visit to the lowly Penguins was asked of them before returning home to the friendly confines.  But those pesky Penguins had other ideas, and instead of being 5-4 and just two games behind with a favorable schedule, the Vikings are 4-5 at the turn, with no reasonable chance for that coveted second spot.   Oh, what might have been.

Horizon News and Notes:

• Separated by just 70 miles, at least from the Youngstown State perspective Cleveland State could be their biggest rival, and 6,249 screaming Penguin fans contributed to Friday’s upset, the fourth largest crowd ever in Beeghly Center.
• If you’ll indulge me, having seen my share of Big Five games in Philly’s Palestra, and having watched the discontinuation of the “Basketball Beanpot” in Boston some years ago, wouldn’t it be wonderful if Northeast Ohio’s four D-Is-two in the MAC and two in the Horizon-were to institute some kind of regional competition for bragging rights.  That would require each team to play both of the schools in the other conference once (presumably one at home and one away), in addition to the home-and-home games within the respective conferences;  the best record among the four would win some kind of cup or trophy.  The fans of the four schools would love it, and I suspect help fill one another’s gyms.
• Continuing on that theme, in the wake of its upset of CSU, YSU played an unusual late January non-conference game Monday night, hosting Akron in Beeghly.  In front of barely ¼ of the audience three nights earlier, the Pens were unable to sustain their terrific play, falling to the improving Akron Zips 67-63.  For three quarters of the game YSU got little from its forwards, and Akron got little from its guards.  But Akron’s guards began contributing something-barely something–midway in the second half, and YSU’s forwards never did.  Senior Nate Linhart led the Zips with 15, on 6-11 shooting, and 9 rebounds;  Chris McKnight added 13, mainly on late game free throws, and also had 9 boards.  Junior YSU guard DeAndre Mays led all scorers in a losing cause with 18, on 7-14 including 2-5 from the arc, and had 8 boards, and Martin pulled down 11 rebounds for the Pens.
• With each pair of conference teams yet to play each other a second time (and Cleveland State and Akron not currently playing one another at all), here are the current standings for Northeast Ohio’s unofficial “Lake Erie Cup”:
  • Akron:  2-0
  • Cleveland State:  1-1
  • Kent State:  1-2
  • Youngstown State:  1-2
  • Of course, in addition to remaining games in which Akron visits Kent State and Youngstown State visits Cleveland State, it is possible that conference foes will meet in their respective conference tourneys (or even that one of these four will meet another-some day-in the NCAA Tourney, the NIT or the CBI).  Yes, the “Lake Erie Cup.”  (Of course, a regional sponsor will quickly gobble this up, making it the “Key Bank Cup,” or the “NCB Cup.”  On the other hand, the way things have been going lately, maybe I shouldn’t wait by the phone for any bank or brokerage to be calling…).

Horizon Notebook: Butler Too Good for Green Bay in Battle for First Place

INDIANAPOLIS – The Wisconsin-Green Bay team may not have read this space recently (or if they did, they chose not to believe), as we had long decided that the Horizon regular season belongs to Butler. In fact, the only question that remains in the mind of this writer is whether Butler will lose a single game, either in the Horizon regular season or in a conference tournament in which it will need to win but twice, both games at home. But I will forgive Tod Kowalczyk, his staff and his players if they thought otherwise, coming into Hinkle for their first meeting with Butler with but a single conference loss. And even if only technically speaking, the Phoenix were correct, as a win on Butler’s home court would have left both teams with one loss, with Green Bay having won head-to-head. But it was not to be.

Having already anointed Butler regular season champs, we’ve decided three corollary things in this space. First, that the real battleground in the Horizon is for the second seed in the tournament, which also provides that awful double-bye and a home semi-final game. Second, that with both Wisconsin teams, Wright State and Cleveland State the obvious contenders for second, each is now rooting strongly for Butler when it plays any of the other contenders; thus, deep down Milwaukee, WSU and CSU were all rooting for the Bulldogs to beat Green Bay Thursday night. Third, that even though Green Bay and Milwaukee came into Thursday night’s games with just one loss, Wright State with three, and CSU with four (Milwaukee now has two losses, after falling to Valpo Thursday night), the Wisconsin schools having yet to face Butler even once, the race for second is tighter than the difference between one loss and four might otherwise indicate. That is, at 4-4 going into their game Saturday night at Youngstown State, preseason favorite Cleveland State is still very much alive for that cherished second spot. Of course, coming off a week in which they were oh-for-Wisconsin, the Vikings certainly have to win tomorrow night at YSU to stay in the race for second.

With that as a backdrop, Thursday night’s game went very much like lots of Butler’s games this season. Saddled with two early fouls, center Matt Howard played only 10 first-half minutes. And with forward Willie Veasley also in foul trouble (he played just 5 minutes and had three fouls before halftime), Butler played from behind the entire half (trailing by as many as 6), but its players kept the game at their signature controlled pace. And as was the case in earlier wins over Northwestern, Cleveland State, UAB, Detroit and Illinois-Chicago, Butler trailed at the half, though by just three points, at 25-22. In that slow and low-scoring half, Green Bay’s 6-0 junior guard Troy Cotton dominated, by scoring 10 of Green Bay’s 25 points (on 3-4 shooting, 2-2 from the arc), grabbing a team-high four boards, and most of all by holding one of Butler’s sharpshooting frosh Shelvin Mack scoreless, his pressure allowing Mack to shoot just three times, all from the arc, hitting none.

But just as in those five earlier games (and in their single loss to Ohio State), Butler came out of the locker room strong, and took over the game. (At OSU, the Bulldogs trailed by 6 at the intermission, cut the lead in half in the second stanza, and had a Gordon Hayward trey in the air at the final buzzer that would have tied the game). Strong defense, particularly by the guards, Howard’s rebounding, and Veasley’s all-around aggressive play took the game back. And even with just Howard and Hayward scoring at their usual rate, by the ten minute mark of the second what was a three-point deficit had become a six-point lead (41-35). Then, when a pretty Hayward feed got a previously scoreless Mack a shot under the goal at the eleven minute mark, Mack belatedly joined the party, and Butler’s three scorers all contributing was too much for Green Bay to overcome. The game wasn’t as close as the 68-59 final score.

Howard had 15 (on 4-7) and eight boards. Hayward had 14 (on 5-9, 2-5 from the arc) and 6 boards. Mack had 11 (on 4-7, and also 2-5 from the arc), five boards, and a monstrous eight assists. In fact, as we approach the halfway point of the conference season, it was incredibly obvious that Butler’s two freshmen shooters, Hayward and Mack, also love playing together, setting up one another to score, and feeding off of one another’s energy. For the losers, diminutive lefty guard Rahmon Fletcher did all he could to keep his team close in the second half, scoring 17 of his 22 after intermission, on 7-12 shooting. But he was overmatched by Butler all half long, in particular by Butler’s two frosh playing together as beautifully as they did.

Green Bay coach Kowalczyk talked about Butler’s strong defense after the game, focusing on a series of “7 possessions during which we turned the ball over 4 times.” He followed up that “because Butler plays so slow, each possession is that much more valuable.”

Mimicking former Arizona Cardinals coach Dennis Green’s famous comments about the Chicago Bears, Butler coach Brad Stevens began his press conference complimenting Green Bay’s defense, telling us that “they [Green Bay] were exactly what we thought they’d be.” In response to questions he was candid that in a number of games this year his now 17-1 team has shot poorly in the first half, causing a first-half or halftime deficit.

When I asked him about his team’s controlled pace, and if or when he might allow his talented freshmen to play a bit faster, he responded that he’s already trying to cause that to happen, that this edition of the Bulldogs has succeeded in getting the ball up the floor more quickly than last year’s group in a number of games, and attributed the slowness of tonight’s first half to strong Green Bay defense. He then proceeded to compliment Gordon Hayward’s unselfish team-oriented attitude, at the same time making clear that he wants Hayward to shoot from the perimeter every single time he’s open, and that when Hayward is crowded by a defender Stevens wants him to drive hard to the goal. Not surprisingly, Stevens wouldn’t focus for very long on his gaudy 17-1 record to start the season (the best start in team history), telling us that “if we start looking at that instead of our next opponent, that’s the best way to make sure that we’ll no longer have a something-and-one record.”

While Green Bay moves on to more beatable Valparaiso for a game Saturday night, Butler will remain at home and entertain that other Wisconsin team, which stumbled badly at Valpo Thursday night, falling 63-51, that game at 2 p.m. Saturday. You can bet that the Panthers, who Stevens called “scary-good offensively,” will bring their A-game to Indianapolis, hoping to find a way to beat Butler and salvage a split on their swing through Indiana. You can also bet that Green Bay – along with WSU and CSU – will be rooting for Butler to beat Milwaukee Saturday, and stay undefeated.

Horizon News and Notes

• Don’t forget the Friday 9 p.m. eastern Horizon ESPNU game, Friday night featuring Cleveland State at Youngstown State. And CSU had better not take those pesky Penguins lightly, as they are mighty dangerous on their home court.
• Thursday night’s game being the first chance this writer has had to see Wisconsin-Green Bay in person, I got a chance to watch last year’s Horizon Defensive Player of the Year, Phoenix 3-man Terry Evans, who spent most of the night shadowing Butler’s Gordon Hayward. In this writer’s opinion, Evans helped off of Hayward more than he should have, dug for dribbles and lunged for passes, and as a result Hayward scored well, and had open looks that could have resulted in his scoring way more than his 14. While one match-up in one game – a difficult one at that – isn’t enough to reach a firm judgment, from what I saw tonight, much as is the case for Cleveland State’s Cedric Jackson (the only player in the league with more steals), for Evans steals aren’t a positive statistic. I’d be more impressed if Evans played tough hard-nosed position defense, tightened up his spacing, and forced his man to turn his side or back to the goal, and to take more difficult shots. This night, Evans wasn’t even the best defensive player on his team; Troy Cotton was, for his terrific work on Shelvin Mack, holding Mack scoreless for the first 31 minutes.

Horizon Notebook – CSU Loses Wisconsin Two-Step for the Two-Seed

CLEVELAND -  Even in the context of Butler’s home scare at the hands of Detroit a week ago Saturday, we suggested in this space that everyone else in the Horizon is already playing for second.  (We’ve also suggested more than once that the deepest line in the sand is between the double-bye and home semi-final game to be awarded the second seed and the two extra games the third seed must play in the conference tourney).  Coming into the weekend just past, with Butler a perfect 5-0, Wisconsin-Green Bay and Wisconsin-Milwaukee each had one loss, Cleveland State had two, and Wright State had three.  And predictably, Butler stayed perfect, taking care of business this weekend in Chicago, beating Loyola and Illinois-Chicago;  also predictably, Wright State took care of business in its lone game at Detroit, still stuck on three losses.  So there was Cleveland State on its annual brutal trek through Wisconsin, needing two wins to be tied for second and a split to stay close;  it got neither.  So now the preseason favorite Vikings wake up in Cleveland at 4-4 and in fifth place, three full games and the head-to-head tiebreaker behind Milwaukee for second.

It was a better trip offensively than CSU had the right to expect, as finally shoot-first point guard Cedric Jackson was able to contribute at that end of the floor.  21 points at Green Bay on Thursday (7-12, 4-5 from the arc) and then 17 points (7-13) to go with 10 assists and 7 boards Saturday in Milwaukee.  And even with J’Nathan Bullock scoring 22 and 19 in the two games, CSU’s improved offense could not overcome its poorest defensive weekend of the season.  The Vikes lost 80-65 to Green Bay in a game not nearly that close, and after a furious comeback form nineteen down in the last five minutes in Milwaukee, they lost by two 77-75, when a Trevon Harmon trey rimmed and came out with less than two seconds remaining.  It has been that kind of year for the Vikings.

Needless to say, under Gary Waters CSU is known for its tenacious, stifling pressure defense, and coming into the weekend the Vikings had held 6 of their previous 10 D-I opponents to 50 points or less.  So one would have thought that 65 points in Green Bay and 75 in Milwaukee would have been enough to win at least one of those games, and maybe both.  The problem:  while CSU’s defense can grind you down over forty minutes when the Vikings have the lead, when they’re behind it becomes a reaching, lunging and fouling defense, risking everything for steals, and thus vulnerable against good teams to back-door cuts, guard penetration and lots of open jump shots.  Now, playing that kind of 100% style (as opposed to the aggressive but under control style made famous by late 70s and 80s Indiana teams and played these days by Butler and Wright State), the results can be, well, inconsistent.  The game can become a schoolyard game, and for short periods CSU can make steals and make hay against its opponent.  Witness the last 5 minutes at Milwaukee, and a similar stretch during the last 8 minutes of the first half at Green Bay, during which the Vikings returned from the dead to tie that game at the half.  In the long run, however-at least against quality opponents-playing defense that way is pure suicide, allowing a team that might have scored 55 or 60 against the Vikings to score 70 or more.  And with CSU’s poor perimeter shooting on offense, that difference is just too much to overcome.  Thus, two losses in the Wisconsin snow.

Now in the race for second, all is not utterly lost for the Vikings.  Coach Gary Waters having said that the regular season Horizon winner will have four or more losses, even if Butler doesn’t the rest of the teams in the league should, or at least could.  So, if freshman Trey Harmon improves, and sophomore D’Aundray Brown returns from his rib injury, the second half of the conference schedule is more favorable for the Vikings.  Home and home with Youngstown State (Jerry Slocum’s Penguin team is pretty darned tough at home), all three teams the Vikes are chasing for second still to play at home in Wolstein Arena, and then a season-ending rematch with Butler at Hinkle on Saturday February 28.  And both one-loss Wisconsin teams yet to play Butler at all.  So if Butler should beat Green Bay and Milwaukee twice, and if Wright State beats one or both of the Wisconsin teams on their trips to Dayton, and if CSU makes those Wisconsin schools’ trips south as miserable as they did to the Vikes going north, well, CSU can still be heading for Indianapolis for that February 28th game with a shot at the second seed, and with more to play for that day than the Bulldogs.  But first they need to right the ship with a win at Youngstown State this Friday night, a game the Vikings must win to stay in the hunt for second.  To do that they better be ready to stop YSU second guard Kelvin Bright, who has scored most of his 14 points per game on his home floor.

Horizon News and Notes:

• Both Green Bay and Milwaukee get their first looks at Butler’s freshman class this week, Green Bay playing at Hinkle on Thursday at 7 pm eastern, and Milwaukee playing there on Saturday at 2 pm eastern.
• Cleveland State plays at Youngstown State in this Friday night’s 9 pm eastern ESPNU game.
• To date still playing without Vaughn Duggins, Wright State faces Illinois-Chicago at home on Saturday night, that game to tip at 7 pm eastern.  If Duggins is ready to play this weekend, he’ll get a home warmup Thursday night against Loyola, and then face UIC.  If he’s not ready to play this weekend, expect Coach Brownell to announce a decision to redshirt him some time next week.

Horizon League Notebook – Scheduling Issues and Cupcakes

When college basketball begins each November (soon to be October?), scheduling disparities make it difficult to evaluate teams early, even harder to compare them. Mid-majors like the teams in our league often have incredibly uneven schedules; for example, Detroit played NAIA Division II Aquinas College on Wednesday night, managing a 58-48 win at home, but is now en route to Champaign-Urbana for a game tomorrow night at Illinois.

This happens for reasons many of you are familiar with: first, there just aren’t always enough regional mid-majors – particularly outside of the northeast – to fill up one another’s schedules. Second, while major programs generally won’t play at mid-majors, the financial “guarantees” they pay to mid-major programs to play in their gyms provide resources many universities depend on to fund their basketball programs. Third, recognizing that casual and less knowledgeable fans (including some in the ranks of university administrators and boosters) just count wins and losses each season, irrespective of the opponents, mid-major coaches who like their jobs often lobby to play schools from lesser Division I conferences, Division II and Division III opponents, and NAIA schools. Fourth, many coaches believe that at least some wins during the season – no matter against whom – are essential to help maintain the enthusiasm and commitment of their players.

Doubtless some of you remember that in the days John Thompson, Jr. coached at Georgetown, most years they opened their season with a lopsided win over Division III St. Leo’s College. And while St. Leo’s and other D-III’s no longer appear on the Hoyas’ schedule, Coach John Thompson III was following in his father’s footsteps last week when Georgetown hosted one of the weakest teams in Division I, managing to keep the score differential against Savannah State under 100.

If you’re inferring some annoyance on the part of this writer with schools scheduling “cupcakes,” well, you’re inferring correctly. In addition to Detroit’s game this past week with Aquinas, Jimmy Collins’ vaunted UIC team played D-II Lewis College (a school I’d never heard of), and on its upcoming three-game home stand, Cleveland State will play both D-III La Roche College and D-III Notre Dame College (that’s not the Notre Dame we all know and love – the one CSU should be playing). If any of these schools find themselves on the wrong side of the bubble for an at-large NCAA bid (or for an NIT bid), they need look no further than their own schedules to learn why.

Last on this, I just took a peak at the schedule for recent D-I admit New Jersey Institute of Technology. As many of you know, since moving to Division I, the most widely known fact in the history of NJIT undoubtedly is that its basketball team failed to win a single game last year; they have maintained “perfection” to date this season, losing their first 8 games. That said, I recognized every single school listed on NJIT’s 2008-09 schedule, and every one is an NCAA Division I member. So while that program obviously has hurdles to overcome, kudos to Coach Jim Engles and Athletic Director Lenny Kaplan for jumping into the deep end, and not manufacturing wins by playing the local junior high in their own gym!

With that lengthy introduction, now that Horizon teams have as many as eleven games under their belts, in some cases against common opponents (including two conference games for everyone except UIC and Loyola), the league appears to have separated itself into two “divisions.” Butler and Illinois-Chicago have been by far the most impressive, with preseason favorite CSU, Wisconsin-Green Bay and Wisconsin-Milwaukee rounding out this writer’s “first division.”

Over the last 10 days, UIC backed up its earlier monster win at the SEC’s Vanderbilt with a home conference win over its biggest rival, Loyola. Then they went to Atlanta, besting the ACC’s Georgia Tech last Sunday, 66-60. Both of Collins’ senior stars came up big in the win over the Yellow Jackets, preseason Player of Year point guard Josh Mayo with 17 points on 6-14, 7 assists and 6 rebounds, and center Scott VanderMeer with 19 points on 8-15 shooting and seven rebounds. Coach, even with your two stars graduating this June, please don’t schedule Lewis College again next year!

If a loss can make a previously undefeated team look even better, that’s just what happened to Butler this week. Coming into December 5-0 with wins at Drake and over Northwestern, Butler began the month with Zach Hahn’s buzzer-beating trey at CSU, 50-48, won a workmanlike second conference road game in snowy Youngstown two nights later, 79-71, and then beat Bradley in Peoria, 87-75. Then they lost a titanic defensive struggle at OSU, 54-51. But what a game it was.

First, that game showed that Butler’s guards can really guard, holding vaunted Buckeye Evan Turner to 14 points (making him take 10 shots to get them), and holding Turner’s athletic running mate David Lighty to 10. And behind Matt Howard’s 10 boards – now a sophomore and a burgeoning star, Howard seems to play better against better opponents – Butler was able to win the battle of the boards by one, 34-33. Above all, that game was the coming out party for freshman sensation Gordon Hayward, who’s fast becoming the star of this space, as well as of the Horizon, and of college basketball in the state of Indiana. With OSU in man-to-man all afternoon, and assigning forwards rather than guards to defend him, Hayward rewarded those of us who love his stroke by hitting 7 treys in the game (in 11 tries) for a total of 25 points. He also asserted himself on the boards (as he had at CSU with Howard in foul trouble), pulling down 7 rebounds. And he had a trey in the air at the final buzzer that would have tied the game.

The only questions I have left is how good Hayward will get this year (in the conference, in the conference tourney and beyond), how he’ll fair against UIC (now that he’s no longer a surprise), and whether Butler Coach Brad Stevens no longer has reason to expect that he’ll have Hayward around for a full four seasons.

For Cleveland State it was a mixed week, shooting just 33 percent in a ten-point loss in West Virginia (27 percent in the second half, and 25 percent from the arc), then improving in that category against rebuilding Marist (56 percent for the game), and then saving December with a win at then-11th ranked Syracuse on Monday night. Put aside that Syracuse isn’t anything close to the 11th-best team in America (that darned schedule-maker again, bringing a parade of Ivy and Patriot teams into the Carrier Dome so far this season), that Syracuse’s heralded 2-3 zone is the least mobile, least aggressive, and most permeable defense this writer has ever seen (just the opposite of the 1-1-3 match-up Coach Greg Kampe of Oakland used to nearly beat CSU in Cleveland), and that the Orange played this game with less intensity and emotion than any of us could imagine. Still, CSU was the better team on Monday night, and star forward J’Nathan Bullock rebounded from an 0-9 first half to shoot 8-12 in the second to keep CSU in the game and even get the Vikings a 5-point lead in the final minute.

After a trey and a put-back tied the score for Syracuse, CSU had the ball with 3 seconds left on its own baseline. The ball was inbounded to underperforming senior guard Cedric Jackson (who’d previously played in the Carrier Dome with St. John’s), and Jackson launched a 70-foot heave at the buzzer, which banked in (I thought you had to call “bank”) to give Coach Gary Waters a much needed win, 72-69.

In fairness, CSU could be viewed as “entitled” to those D-III’s coming into Wolstein, having already played Washington, Kansas State, Butler and West Virginia. Moreover, with Jackson severely disappointing over the first third of the season – he came in to the dome averaging just 9.4 and shooting 30 percent, 14 percent from the arc – perhaps that 70-foot heave will turn Jackson’s season around. Certainly, it put a smile on Ced’s face that hadn’t been there in weeks.

Elsewhere in the “first division,” Green Bay won its second home conference game, 66-59 over Wright State, beat Idaho State at home, lost at Wisconsin, and then lost a heartbreaker at home to Oakland, 79-76. (How good must Kampe be with 7 wins already, including road wins at Oregon and Green Bay, all without star senior forward Derick Nelson? Oh, if Nelson could somehow be ready for tomorrow afternoon’s “home” game against Michigan at the Palace…) And after beating Wright State at home for its second conference win, Milwaukee lost to Charlie Coles’ Miami team in Ohio, 69-45.

In the “second division,” Valpo lost at home to IPFW, and played Miami in Oxford tougher than Milwaukee did, losing 62-50. After losing at conference rival UIC, Loyola beat UMKC at home. And after losing its second conference game in Wisconsin (at Green Bay), Detroit also lost at Bowling Green before besting Aquinas.

After also losing its second conference game in Wisconsin (at Milwaukee), Wright State finally figured out how to win without injured all-conference selection Vaughn Duggins, beating Toledo at home, winning at Arkansas-Little Rock, playing tough and well in falling 66-53 at Wake Forest, and then making it 3 out of 4 by besting Norfolk State at home. And while for now residing in this writer’s “second division,” that recent “mini-run” of success combined with Duggins’ expected January return might combine to move the Raiders up into the “first division,” perhaps displacing one or the other of the Wisconsin schools.

Remember, while most pre-season publications predicted CSU atop the Horizon, expecting a healthy Vaughn USA Today preferred Wright State. Could this be one of those December injuries that helps a team succeed later on in conference play?

Lastly, after playing hard and shooting well in an 8-point home loss to Butler, YSU was competitive at Kent, losing 82-74. While sophomore wing Vytas Sulskis may be a “poor man’s Gordon Hayward,” junior guard Kelvin Bright may be a “poor man’s Shelvin Mack,” and senior center Jack Liles probably doesn’t quite qualify as a “poor man’s Matt Howard,” it appears Coach Jerry Slocum will get a lot out of this roster, and be competitive in conference play, at least at home.

Horizon News and Notes

• With exam breaks coming to an end around the league, there will some great games Christmas week. Valpo will host North Carolina at the United Center tomorrow (2 p.m. on ESPNU), Detroit will play at Illinois tomorrow evening, and Wright State begins three straight days of play in the San Juan Shootout, facing Oral Roberts tomorrow, and South Florida and Murray State Sunday and Monday. On Sunday YSU will play at Charlotte. On Tuesday night, the night before Christmas Eve, Butler will play at Xavier, a game also on ESPNU. And in a battle of preseason favorites in the Horizon and the MAC, and of Gary Waters’ old and new schools, also on Tuesday CSU will host Kent State.
• Merry Christmas, Horizon fans. And may Santa leave a wonderful season of conference games under all of our trees!

Horizon League Notebook – Early Showdown between Butler and Cleveland State

No, they’re not the best team in the country as their RPI of 1 earlier this week suggested. (RPI rankings really are silly, especially early in the year.) And no, they’re not the 27th-best team in America as their Sagarin ranking suggests. Yes, like teams in higher conferences they’ve played 4 of their 5 games at home, only venturing away from the friendly confines of Hinkle to visit Drake to open the season. And no, they haven’t faced the Dukes, North Carolinas and Connecticuts of the world, with Northwestern near the bottom of the Big Ten having been their most serious opponent – and at home. But to the surprise of some, with three freshmen in Brad Stevens’ starting lineup, the Butler Bulldogs have completed the first portion of their non-conference schedule undefeated, and will bring a 5-0 record into Wolstein Center Thursday night to face preseason Horizon favorite Cleveland State.

As this writer projected after attending an exhibition game four weeks ago, this is a different kind of Butler team, quite frankly a more interesting and more exciting Butler team. It is one that will be able to play the more physical and athletic style often required to beat teams from major conferences. At least for the moment – until Gordon Hayward really gets going – they’re not the three-point shooting team we’ve come to expect Butler to be: the team’s 32 percent three-point shooting puts Butler more than two percentage points out of the nation’s top hundred. What they’re doing it with is solid defense, defense already better than that which led the Horizon in fewest points allowed the last three seasons.

As has been suggested a time or two in this space, points allowed can be a deceptive stat, as teams like Princeton, Dartmouth, Wisconsin-Green Bay and Butler (like the Super Bowl winning Giants with O.J. Anderson) can use all of the shot clock each time down the floor, control the ball for 25 of 40 minutes, and limit opposition possessions and attempts to a precious few. And respectfully, it is that style more than great individual man-to-man pressure that has caused Butler to lead the league in scoring defense in recent years. No more.

In the five games Butler has played, they’ve yielded an average of just 50 points, and never given up 60. Their opponents are shooting a combined 37 percent from the field (and 32 percent from the arc), and while the NCAA won’t publish statistics on defensive field goal percentage until tomorrow, I suspect that 37 percent number will be in America’s top ten, maybe top five. Focusing as I often do on the point guard position, while Alabama native Ronald Nored has struggled offensively (particularly from the line, where he’s started his career 4-14), it was the freshman’s stout defense more than anything else that turned defeat into victory against Northwestern on Wednesday night.

In the Northwestern game, Nored was assigned the task of defending the opposition’s best player, backcourt star Craig Moore, fresh off of a 31-point performance and Big Ten Co-Player of the Week honors. Putting in yeoman’s work at the defensive end, Nored held Moore to just 11 points, on 4-11 shooting, 3-8 from the arc. And if the other team’s radio broadcasters were on the money (isn’t it wonderful to listen to faraway college basketball on one’s car radio after dark this time of year), it was Nored’s defensive work more than anything else that allowed Butler to come back from a deficit that reached 12-points in the first half and was 9 at intermission, to defeat the Wildcats 57-53.

Offensively and on the boards, it is no surprise that star sophomore Matt Howard is leading the way, holding the fort until the freshmen are truly ready. Howard is tied for fifth in the league scoring 13.3 per game, is second in shooting percentage at 57.5 percent, and tied for seventh with 6.3 rebounds. More importantly (though not surprisingly), 6-8 freshman guard Gordon Hayward is on Howard’s heels in every category and also shoots threes: through the first five games of his career Hayward is tied for tenth in the conference in scoring at 12 points per game, fourth in field goal percentage at 51.6 percent, fourth in steals at 2 per game (this is a surprise), fifth in treys made with 2 per game, and sixth in three-point percentage at 44.4 percent; he’s also grabbing 5 rebound per game. In the backcourt, with 18 points on 8-11 shooting in yesterday’s win over Evansville (including 2-2 from the arc), Lexington’s Shelvin Mack has raised his scoring average to 12 per game, and will be listed among the conference’s top twenty scorers when conference stats are recalibrated tomorrow. And in addition to Ronald Nored’s stellar individual defense, he’s dished out 2.8 assists per game, tied for ninth in the Horizon.

So while this edition of the Bulldogs doesn’t quite shoot like recent groups did (Hayward excluded, and maybe Mack), they may already be among the best defensive teams that has patrolled Hinkle, and are destined to become over the next two years the best Butler team ever. That said, they should be good enough to compete at Cleveland State Thursday night (in CSU’s second conference game in three days, but just Butler’s first), though perhaps not yet ready for their freshman to beat the Vikings’ seniors in their gym. Then the Bulldogs will proceed down the road and be more ready for a conference road win at Youngstown State on Saturday night. All being held together by Matt Howard, as those three freshman get better and better and better.

Horizon News and Notes

• Saturday was a big day for conference teams as in addition to Butler’s 75-59 win over Evansville, Loyola beat Holy Cross 58-53, Detroit beat St. Louis 62-57, Wisconsin Green-Bay beat Massachusetts 84-67 and Illinois-Chicago beat Central Michigan 77-67. Not surprisingly, Wisconsin-Milwaukee lost in Madison to the Badgers, 67-46; Youngstown State was edged at home by St. Francis of Pennsylvania, 66-65. Perhaps the biggest surprise is that after yesterday’s 84-65 loss to Sam Houston State, Wright State will begin conference play 0-4 on the season.
• With many conferences now adding one or two pre-Christmas conference games, this week provides Horizon fans with a great taste of what January and February will be like. The conference schedule begins Tuesday night with just a singleton, Valparaiso at Cleveland State. Then four conference games tip off on Thursday: Valpo at Youngstown State, Butler at CSU, Detroit at Milwaukee and Wright State at Green Bay. Four more conference tilts come on Saturday: Butler at YSU, Wright State at Milwaukee, Detroit at Green Bay and Loyola at Illinois-Chicago. Enjoy your early taste!
• Note that Thursday’s game between Butler and Cleveland State in Cleveland will start at 8 pm, rather than CSU’s usual 7 pm, and be telecast nationally on ESPNU.