NCAA Tournament Crystal Ball
by Dan Hauptman and Michael Protos
Feb. 16, 2007
This week, before gazing into Hoopville’s Crystal Basketball, Hoops 101 professors Dan Hauptman and Michael Protos ate their apples, put on their elbow-patched blazers and studied the recent history of the six major conferences. When surfing the digital record books through their half spectacles, they discovered an intriguing trend: The world of college basketball is turning upside down.
Although two conferences — the Big Ten and SEC — have been dominated by two schools during the past decade, the other four leagues have witnessed huge changes among the top and bottom teams in just the past few years. Take notes and spit out your chewing gum, as Hoopville’s scholarly duo teach their findings in this conference-by-conference history lesson.
ACC: Today, Boston College is flying over the rest of the ACC. Two years ago, the Eagles did not even compete in the conference. Furthermore, the surprising third-place squad, the Virginia Tech Hokies, competed against Boston College in the Big East just three seasons ago.
Big 12: In 2007, Texas A&M is tied for first with Kansas, a perennial Big 12 powerhouse. The Aggies’ rise is remarkable because, in 2004, Texas A&M lost all 16 conference games and finished the season with a deplorable RPI of 246.
Big East: As a trickle-down effect of Boston College’s move to the ACC, the Big East added Marquette, Louisville and three other Conference USA teams. Looking at the conference standings, Marquette and Louisville are tied for third, ahead of 12 other Big East squads. Also, two traditional conference powers, Syracuse and Connecticut, national champions in 2003 and 2004, respectively, are in grave danger of missing the Big Dance. Things have gotten so bad in Storrs that the Huskies are in 11th place. And remember, only the top 12 of 16 conference teams advance to Madison Square Garden and the Big East Tournament.
Pac-10: Last year’s national runner-up, the UCLA Bruins, are certainly used to their present position perched atop the Pac-10. So let’s examine the second- and third-place teams. Washington State, the surprising second-place team led by first-year head coach Tony Bennett, finished at the bottom of the conference in 2006 (4-14 in conference play), when Tony’s father, Dick, coached the Cougars. In addition, the third-place team, USC, finished in last in the Pac-10 two seasons ago with a 5-13 record.
While those four conferences have certainly witnessed noteworthy and fascinating changes the last few years, the Big Ten and SEC prove that the more the other conferences change, the more these two leagues have stayed the same.
Big Ten: This year, Ohio State and Wisconsin are dominating the Big Ten — both are 11-1 in conference action — and are strong candidates to earn No. 1 seeds in the 2007 NCAA Tournament. The consistency of these two programs has been unmatched in the conference, as the Buckeyes or the Badgers have finished among the top three in each of the previous eight Big Ten seasons.
SEC: The SEC East is college basketball’s version of the NBA’s dominating Western Conference. This season, three SEC East teams have better records than any of the six SEC West squads. The cream of the SEC East crop — and hence, the SEC conference — is defending national champion Florida and Kentucky, the winningest program in NCAA history. The success of the two schools goes way back, as Florida and Kentucky have both been in the top three in the SEC East in each of the previous eight seasons. A more impressive statistic: In the 15 SEC Tournaments since 1992, Kentucky has won 10 times, Florida has won twice (in 2005 and 2006), and the other three champions were SEC West teams Mississippi State (in 1996 and 2002) and Arkansas in 2000.
Enough of the past. It is time to look into the future. Hauptman and Protos saw these visions when peeking into Hoopville’s Crystal Basketball this week.
| Hauptman’s Hoops Horoscope | Protos’ Prognostications |
|---|---|
 Florida Wisconsin UCLA North Carolina |
Florida UCLA Ohio State Wisconsin |
 Ohio State Pittsburgh Washington State Texas A&M |
North Carolina Kansas Washington State Texas A&M |
 Memphis Kansas Southern Illinois Kentucky |
Pittsburgh Memphis Southern Illinois Georgetown |
 Nevada Georgetown Air Force Boston College |
Nevada Virginia Tech Butler Kentucky |
 Creighton Butler Virginia Tech Oregon |
Indiana Oregon Marquette Texas |
 Marquette UNLV Texas Arizona |
Arizona Air Force Tennessee USC |
 BYU Tennessee Oklahoma State Duke |
Oklahoma State Boston College Duke Villanova |
 West Virginia USC Indiana Villanova |
UNLV Creighton West Virginia Texas Tech |
 Virginia Missouri State Vanderbilt Notre Dame |
Clemson Notre Dame Stanford Virginia |
 Texas Tech Clemson Santa Clara Stanford |
Missouri State Purdue Vanderbilt Xavier |
 VCU Alabama Maryland Georgia |
Gonzaga Georgia Tech VCU Arkansas |
 Georgia Tech Bradley Gonzaga Xavier |
Davidson Maryland Winthrop Alabama |
 Winthrop Davidson Akron South Alabama |
BYU Michigan State Holy Cross Akron |
 Holy Cross Long Beach State Oral Roberts Penn |
Texas A&M – Corpus Christi Oral Roberts Vermont Penn |
 Vermont Austin Peay Marist Weber State |
South Alabama Marist Austin Peay Delaware State |
 East Tennessee State Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Central Connecticut State Delaware State Jackson State |
Central Connecticut State East Tennessee State Cal State Fullerton Jackson State Weber State |
 Last 4 In:Georgia Georgia Tech Bradley Gonzaga |
Last 4 In: Maryland Alabama BYU Michigan State |
| Last 4 Out: Florida State Purdue Kansas State Syracuse |
Last 4 Out: Florida State Illinois Providence Georgia |
| Shooting Stars: Georgetown USC Santa Clara BYU |
Shooting Stars: Georgetown West Virginia Washington State Southern Illinois |
| Sinking Ships: Clemson Duke Texas Tech Oklahoma State |
Sinking Ships: Gonzaga Alabama Arkansas Clemson |
| Conference Breakdown: ACC: 8 Big East: 6 Pac-10: 6 SEC: 6 Big 12: 5 Missouri Valley: 4 Big Ten: 3 Mountain West: 3 West Coast: 2 22 one-bid conferences |
Conference Breakdown: ACC: 8 Big East: 6 Pac-10: 6 SEC: 6 Big 12: 5 Big Ten: 5 Missouri Valley: 3 Mountain West: 3 23 one-bid conferences |
Whose field looks more accurate to you? Or are both Hauptman and Protos off target? E-mail us your comments on the Crystal Basketball or give us your own NCAA Tournament prognostications. Then check back throughout the next two months, as Hauptman’s and Protos’ visions for the Big Dance become clearer as the days until Selection Sunday count down. The calendar reads February. In this shortened month, Cinderella has less time to pick out her dancing slippers.
