Big Ten Quarterfinals Preview

No. 4 Iowa vs. No. 5 Michigan
Michigan and Iowa enter the Big Ten tournament after fighting to the wire to earn their byes. The maize and blue and black and gold are also fighting for births in the NCAA tournament. Which ever one survives their quarterfinal meeting will have a leg up on a NCAA birth. Both schools have made improbable runs to the title before. Michigan won the tournament as the fourth seed in 1998. Iowa captured the title as the ninth seed in 2001 and followed that up with a runner-up finish in 2002.

The difference in this one should be Michigan’s depth. Michigan is able to go eight deep, while the Hawkeyes have been playing only six players for the last month. Iowa has been decimated by injuries, defections and academic causalities since January. Both schools won this year on their home court. For the Wolverines to win, they are going to have to take better care of the ball. In the 69-61 loss at Iowa, Michigan committed 21 turnovers.

Both teams like to get out and run. Michigan has better athletes and more offensive firepower. The Hawkeyes have better experience and muscle inside. Michigan should be able to ware down the Hawkeyes. Iowa and Michigan both use balanced offenses. In the postseason, unsung heroes like Mark Johnson of Indiana step up from out of nowhere to help their teams win. Michigan has more players capable of having an unexpected clutch performance. That should be enough to be the difference.

No. 8 Indiana vs. No. 1 Illinois
Indiana played up Hoosier hysteria to the hilt to capture the first round win over Ohio State. Mark Johnson and Ryan Tapak are highly unlikely to duplicate those performances against the Big Ten’s hottest team. All Illinois has done the last month is win ten straight to capture the Big Ten championship.

With Dee Brown and Deron Williams playing as well as any backcourt in the country, the Illini will end Indiana’s string of post season appearances at 26. Brown and Williams should roll on the perimeter and James Augustine, Nick Smith and Roger Powell will be too much for Indiana inside.

The Illini’s victory in Bloomington in early February was the beginning of the end for Indiana. Illinois should end Indiana’s season in the Big Ten quarters. The Illini should stem the tide of the number one seed faltering in the quarterfinals. Four of the six years the Big Ten has staged a conference tournament, the top seed has been upset in their first game.

No. 10 Minnesota vs. No. 2 Wisconsin
Devin Harris, Devin Harris, Devin Harris. In the Badgers and Golden Gophers only meeting this season, Harris scorched Minnesota for a career high 38 points as Wisconsin rolled to an 80-66 victory. Harris made everything in sight that night. It was obvious that Minnesota had no answer for the Big Ten’s best player in 2004. Kris Humphries was able to put up 21 points and eight boards in the last meeting, but his shooting percentage has dropped significantly during the second half of the Big Ten season.

Wisconsin was upset the last two years as the number one seed in the quarters. As the number two seed this year, that trend should come to an end. The Badgers roll in this one.

No. 6 Northwestern vs. No. 3 Michigan State
After shooting just 36 percent and escaping with a win in the first round, Northwestern is going up against the Big Ten’s best shooting team. As is the case with the Minnesota-Wisconsin and Illinois-Indiana quarters, the Wildcats and Spartans only played once this season. There wasn’t much NU could do to slow the Spartans efficient offense as they fell 73-61. Michigan State shot 61 percent from the floor and hit nine of 16 threes that night. The only chance they are going to have to make the semifinals for the first time they are going to have to come close to the Spartans performance against them in their last meeting.

The Cats are certainly capable of having an exceptional night from the field. Although the percentages don’t bare it out, Northwestern can put five players on the floor with three point range. Northwestern finished last in the Big Ten in three point field goal percentage, but first in makes per game.

Maurice Ager did most of the damage with 24 points, including hitting six three pointers in the first half. That was the story for the Spartans throughout the Big Ten season. As a team, the Spartans hit the Big Ten shooting Triple Crown. Michigan State led the Big Ten in field goal percentage, free throw percentage and three point percentage.

The only way Northwestern is going to be able to stay in this game is to make it ugly. They are going to have to slow the game down and keep the score in the forties or fifties. Someone else is going to have step up other than Vukusic or Young. NU mentor Bill Carmody has said the key to the “Princeton Offense” is having a third scoring option.

Michigan State has six players who can carry them on any given night. They are simply too deep and talented to fall to the Cats. Unless Northwestern does something extraordinary or has one of their players simply take the game over, the Spartans should win this one. Expect a closer one than last time. Michigan State should ware the Cats down and pull away to a ten point victory in the last five to ten minutes.