Big 12 Finals Preview

No. 2 Texas vs. No. 1 Oklahoma State
Upsets and Cinderellas are nice, but it doesn’t really get better than No. 1 vs. No. 2 in the championship game. Oklahoma State took both regular season meetings by a combined 14 points, but that brings to mind the old adage that it’s very hard to win three close games over the same team in one season.

“They’re going to play hard, we’re going to play hard,” Texas coach Rick Barnes said. “These teams know each other really, really well.”

On the inside, Texas has had great play and great depth all season. In the Big 12 Tournament, Jason Klotz and P.J. Tucker have led the way in wins over Oklahoma and Kansas. Klotz also had a big game in the last meeting between these teams, March 1 in Stillwater. If it weren’t for his 20 points, Texas could have been blown out. For Oklahoma State, they must get another good performance out of Ivan McFarlin in the paint, like the one he had in the semis against Texas Tech, or they could be decimated inside on the offensive end. Joey Graham can also play a factor for the Cowboys, but he’s been shut down in the teams’ previous meetings.

The perimeter should be dominated by each team’s big-time scorers, John Lucas for Oklahoma State and Brandon Mouton for Texas. The Cowboys have suffocated Mouton in the first two games played, but that doesn’t mean he won’t explode Sunday. Lucas is dangerous because he can spot up and nail impossible shots and also find the open man in a heartbeat. He’s a better point guard than either of Texas’ options, Royal Ivey or Kenton Paulino. Both teams also have a sniper: Kenny Taylor for the Longhorns and Daniel Bobik for the Cowboys.

Oklahoma State’s real advantage lies in the slashing of Lucas and Tony Allen. Allen had a great game on both ends of the floor in the win over Texas in Stillwater. Ivey and Tucker can do the same for Texas, but aren’t as effective.

If OSU’s advantage is in the slashing department, Texas’ is on the bench. The Longhorns have a bunch of great players that come off the bench, including James Thomas, Brian Boddicker, Brad Buckman, Paulino and Taylor. They’re so deep that they don’t even have to follow the rules about when to take a guy out because of foul trouble. If one big man gets in trouble, another, equally or more effective, can step right in and not miss a beat. That’s a big advantage, especially against an OSU team that doesn’t have a lot of depth inside.

Eddie Sutton is obviously a more experienced coach than Rick Barnes, but that doesn’t mean Barnes can’t get it done. He’s been to the Final Four, too.

In the end, these teams are incredibly equally matched. The winner will be a first-time Big 12 Tournament champion. A Cowboy win could mean a number one seed in Stillwater, while the Longhorns are likely playing for a No. 2. Texas just beat one of the country’s hottest teams in Kansas and Oklahoma State stalled at times against Texas Tech, so I’ll go with the Longhorns in a tight one.

Prediction: Texas 70, Oklahoma State 67