Missouri Valley Conference 2004-05 Season Preview
by Neal Heston
It’s pretty likely that almost every team in the Missouri Valley Conference is going to experience some highs and lows. In fact, with the conference looking this competitive, it’s certain that every team will hit a high and several lows. Four teams enter the season with logical reasoning to believe an MVC title is in their future. No team appears more set for this honor than Wichita State though. The Shockers return too many good players to not be considered the favorite.
Right behind Wichita State in the 2-3-4 positions should be Southern Illinois, Northern Iowa and Southwest Missouri State. It’s impossible to guess which one will finish ahead of the other, but for the sake of predictions, I put them in that order. The rest of the pack, excluding Bradley, will duke it out for fifth through ninth place.
Teams to look out for in 2004-05: Drake, Illinois State and Indiana State. These teams are no longer doormats. Drake and Indiana State have excellent defenses, and Illinois State has the best 3-point threat in the conferece. Evansville should rise up in the standings too.
Look for Creighton to fall to reality and Bradley to fall nearly off the standings. Both lost too much to make any run at the postseason. Only the genius of Dana Altman gives any hope for Creighton.
In short, there are no gimmee games in the Valley this season. A game between No. 1 and No. 2 is probably going to be just as close as a game between No. 1 and No. 10.
Hoopville’s Preseason Awards
All-MVC Team
Darren Brooks, Southern Illinois
Ben Jacobson, Northern Iowa
Marcellus Sommerville, Bradley
Trey Guidry, Illinois State
Lonnie Randolph, Drake
Player of the Year:
Darren Brooks, Southern Illinois
Newcomer of the Year:
Kyle Wilson, Wichita St.
Coach of the Year:
Mark Turgeon, Wichita St.
Here’s a run-down of what to expect in the Valley during 2004-05 . . .
Wichita State Shockers
2004-05 Prediction: First MVC, NCAA Tournament
2003-04: 21-11, 12-6 (3rd), NIT opening round
Projected Starters:
Jamar Howard
Randy Burns
Rob Kampman
Paul Miller
Kyle Wilson
Yes, Southern Illinois returns as the three-time defending MVC champions, and yes, the conference will be very competitive again this season, but the Shockers have the edge this year. It will be tough to begin though as Jamar Howard won’t be with the team for the first three to six weeks. It was announced on Oct. 29 that he suffered a back injury. That could be critical for Wichita State and will allow the rest of the league to see just how important Howard is to this team. To the Shockers advantage though, Howard should be back for the majority of the MVC schedule.
Tabbed for a championship last year, Wichita State struggled out of the gates and again towards the end of the season. A 21-11 record sounds good, but when considering that the Shockers led the league in points per game, field goal percentage, 3-point field goal percentage and rebounds, you have to wonder what could have been. That 21-11 record could have easily been 26-6 or 27-5, which coming from the MVC, undoubtedly would have sent the Shock into the NCAA Tournament instead of another NIT.
The main ingredient for a championship is the maturity and health of Jamar Howard. Howard was arguably the best player in the conference last season, but his head didn’t always stay in the game. He will be a huge factor in whether the Shockers hoist an MVC crown or whether they finish in the middle of the pack.
Joining Howard is probably the most experienced lineup in the Valley. Other four-year starters Randy Burns, Rob Kampman and Paul Miller return for a do-or-die season in Wichita. With those returning four players also returns 43.8 points per game along with 21 rebounds per contest.
This lineup is too talented not to bring in an MVC championship. With Fridge Holman being the only significant loss from last season, the nucleus is there.
Southern Illinois Salukis
2004-05 Prediction: Second MVC, NCAA Tournament
2003-04: 25-5, 17-1 (1st), NCAA first round
Projected Starters:
Darren Brooks
Stetson Hairston
LaMar Owen
Jamaal Tatum
Josh Warren
Southern Illinois enters the 2004-05 campaign in almost the same situation as Wichita State. Starters wise, there aren’t many significant losses from last season to talk about. Brad Korn, Sylvester Willis and Bryan Turner were lost to graduation. With them, leaves 21 points per game, but there are several other players on the roster who will fill in the holes nicely.
If Wichita State isn’t able to accept its title, Southern Illinois will be next in line to grab its fourth consecutive championship. Too many veterans are on this roster for the Salukis not to finish either first or second.
MVC Player of the Year Darren Brooks highlights the returning crowd along with fellow seniors Stetson Hairston and LaMar Owen and sophomore Jamaal Tatum. Brooks led the conference in scoring last season with 16.5 PPG and also grabbed 5.7 RPG and 60 steals.
For the third time in three seasons, the Salukis begin with a new head coach after Matt Painter departed for Purdue earlier this year. Nothing against the fantastic work of Painter, but his replacement, Chris Lowery, will have no trouble continuing the success of this program, especially with the roster he has control of.
It’s important for Southern Illinois to forget how last season finished and instead continue building on that amazing run. After reeling of 16 consecutive wins, the Salukis stumbled down the stretch, losing three of their final four.
Northern Iowa Panthers
2004-05 Prediction: Third MVC, NIT
2003-04: 21-10, 12-6 (2nd), NCAA first round
Projected Starters:
Ben Jacobson
Erik Crawford
Brooks McKowen
Grant Stout
Vincent Polakovic / Eric Coleman
Last season was the most successful season at UNI in more than a decade. It was the first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1990 and was also the first winning campaign for the Panthers since 1996-97. The UNI-Dome became a scary place for MVC opponents as three nationally-ranked foes (Iowa, Creighton and Southern Illinois) walked in undefeated only to get back on the bus with their first loss of the season.
Expectations are high this season, but be careful before setting them. The “twin towers,” David Gruber and Matt Schneiderman, departed last season. Leaving with them was a bulky 23 points and 14 rebounds per game. Grant Stout, as he did towards the end of last season, will need to step up to fill in one of the created holes. Vincent Polakovic of Slovakia and Eric Coleman may be competing for the other spot.
The returning roster is fast and guard-heavy. MVC Tournament MVC, Ben Jacobson, tops the returning roster. Joining him are Erik Crawford and Brooks McKowen, followed by bench players Chris Foster, Pete Schmit and Jon Little. Foster also started in several games last season, and the same could happen in 2004-05. Any of these six players still carry the potential to put up double figures any night.
Barring injuries, this team shouldn’t finish any lower than fourth place and with another late-season surge, could play in its second consecutive NCAA Tournament.
Southwest Missouri State Bears
2004-05 Prediction: Fourth MVC, NIT
2003-04: 19-14, 9-9 (5th), lost in MVC Tournament Championship
Projected Starters:
Blake Ahearn
Anthony Shavies
Tamarr Maclin
Nathan Bilyeu
Deven Mitchell
Along with UNI, this is one of the most competitive young teams in the conference. Yet expectations will be high at SMS after the team’s run at the MVC Tournament title last March. The Bears are in pursuit of their first postseason appearance since qualifying for the NIT in 2000. That appears to be the destiny of the squad this season. They will be good, but an NCAA appearance may be asking a little too much right now.
SMS is a team to be reckoned with in the 2004-05 campaign. Players such as Blake Ahearn, who doesn’t know how to miss a free throw, and great defenders such as Anthony Shavies and Tamarr Maclin return from last season’s squad that nearly beat Kent St., almost won at Southern Illinois and then beat Creighton and Southern Illinois back-to-back in the MVC Tournament.
Merrill Andrews and Monwell Randle both departed, and with them leaves 20 points per game. That will be the big question mark in Mizzou this season. The Bears struggled mightily on offense as it was last season, canceling out one of the Valley’s best defenses. The offense has to score more than 65 points per game to place in the top half of the Valley. One thing SMS has going for them is experience. Twelve players on the roster averaged at least 10 minutes per game last season. Eight of them return. That doesn’t even include center Drew Richards, who is already getting high expectations from MVC followers.
SMS’s fate seems to be the same as Northern Iowa right now, and that means NIT with an NCAA berth possibility from a late-season surge.
Drake Bulldogs
2004-05 Prediction: Fifth MVC
2003-04: 12-16, 7-11 (6th), lost in MVC Tournament QF
Projected starters:
Klayton Korver
Chaun Brooks
Lonnie Randolph
Pete Eggers
David Bancroft
Defense. If the Bulldogs can somehow find a way to scrounge up some big defensive plays, it’s almost certain the team can finish as high as third in the Valley.
Drake was third in the conference in scoring last season with 70.3 points per game. The only problem was the defense was yielding 71.8 points per game – second to last in the MVC. The team also sat dead last in the defensive categories for field goal percentage, 3-point field goal percentage and rebounds.
Steals were the only defensive highlight last season as the Bulldogs had three players in the MVC’s top five for the category (Lonnie Randolph, Nick Grant and
Chaun Brooks – all back with Drake this season). Those three were huge contributors to the MVC’s fourth team ever to record more than 300 steals in a season.
The Bulldogs were very close to a winning season in 2003-04 – 12 points away to be exact. Twelve more points would have given Drake a 15-13 record and a 9-9 MVC record, which also would have given the Bulldogs its highest Valley finish since a fifth place showing in the 1992-93 campaign.
You can read through all the statistics about this team but just remember two things. This team is fast, and they will put points on the board. They will be the
MVC’s surprise team as long as the defense can step up.
Creighton Bluejays
2004-05 Prediction: Sixth MVC
2003-04: 20-9, 12-6 (4th), NIT opening round
Projected Starters:
Nate Funk
Johnny Mathies
Tyler McKinney
Kellen Miliner
Jimmy Motz
If Creighton makes another run at the postseason, Dana Altman deserves Coach of the Year. The Bluejays just seem like they lost too much. Brody Deren, Joe Dabbert, Michael Lindeman and Mike Grimes are all gone. With them leaves a huge amount of points and rebounds per game – 33 and 20 to be exact. Defense will be a big concern in Omaha this season. Deren ranked fourth in the Valley in blocks, two spots behind Dabbert. Deren also sat third in rebounding.
Nate Funk, Creighton’s leading scorer last season, and Johnny Mathies need to step up to fill in at least some of the holes. Both look promising as leaders, scoring 11.1 and 7.8 points per game in the 2003-04 campaign, respectively.
A good streak came to an end last season when the Bluejays didn’t make the cut for the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1998. Two more could very well end this season – seven consecutive appearances in the postseason and six consecutive 20-win seasons. Unless the leadership of Funk and Mathies can carry the team, Creighton looks destined to finish in the middle of the pack.
Illinois State Rebirds
2004-05 Prediction: Seventh MVC
2003-04: 10-19, 4-14 (10th)
Projected Starters:
Trey Guidry
Vince Greene
Gregg Alexander
Greg Dilligard
Levi Dyer
Okay Redbird fans, first the good news, then the bad news. The good news – four starters from last season’s team return. The bad news – that’s about all who return. Seven letterwinners left or graduated this offseason, and five newcomers are welcomed into the system. The team won’t be deep.
The starters who do return give ILS a good nucleus to work with. Trey Guidry hopes to lead the Redbirds to a top-half finish in the conference after the team played so well towards the end of last season. Guidry was tops in 3-point field goals in the Valley last season and sat fifth in the conference in scoring with 15.2 points per game. Seniors Vince Greene and Gregg Alexander also return for one last round with the ‘Birds.
These starters make up a lineup that could have easily won 15 games last season instead of going 10-19. Five of the team’s losses were by five points or less, which included setbacks to powerhouses such as Illinois, Utah St., UNI and Creighton. With the players comfortable in a Redbird uniform now, those close losses could very well turn into wins and propel Illinois State to a fourth- or fifth-place finish.
It all depends on the starters though. If injuries occur and inexperienced bench players have to step up, it could be a long season in Normal.
Indiana State Sycamores
2004-05 Prediction: Eighth MVC
2003-04: 9-19, 5-13 (8th)
Projected Starters:
David Moss
Amani Daanish
Eric Gray
Tyson Schnitker
Jerod Adler
“Will dance for offense.” If the Sycamores had that last season, who knows what would have happened. Indiana State had one of the conference’s best defenses, allowing only 61.7 points per contest, but the offense rarely took advantage with a mere 57.9 points per game – dead last in the Valley.
One advantage going for this team is the returning cast. David Moss, Amani Daanish and Eric Gray return, keeping intact the strong defense. As they return, the offense should get better too, so the Sycamores can put a little more than nine wins in the books. If the offense is able to get anything going at all – even if it’s only scoring about 65 points a game, watch out. This defense will carry ISU up the ladder in the MVC. The Sycamores held 13 opponents to less than 60 points last season but lost more than half of them.
The record from this team last season was deceiving. The story should be a little different this time around. The defense is too good, and the offense will get better. Look for as many as eight or nine wins in the MVC schedule.
Evansville Purple Aces
2004-05 Prediction: Ninth MVC
2003-04: 7-22, 5-13 (9th)
Projected Starters:
Andre Burton
Lucious Wagner
Kyle Anslinger
Matt Webster
Bradley Strickland
Much like Indiana State, Evansville won’t lose as it did last season. Look for about seven or eight wins from the Purple Aces. Clint Cuffle graduated last year, leaving a hole for 13 points and six rebounds a game. Several quality starters return from a team last season that lost five games by five points or less. Andre Burton and Lucious Wagner both return, and both are capable of putting up double figures any night. Also joining the starting roster are Matt Webster and Bradley Strickland. Webster tallied just less than eight points per contest last season, and Strickland was named to the MVC All-Freshman Team. Look for a lot of competitiveness from the Purple Aces this season, and a few more wins too.
Bradley Braves
2004-05 Prediction: Tenth MVC
2003-04: 15-16, 7-11 (7th)
Projected Starters:
Marcellus Sommerville
J.J. Tauai
Brandyn Heemskerk
Michael Rambert
Montana Heisman
Marcello Robinson – gone. James Gillingham – gone. Phillip Gilbert – gone. What does this translate into? Well, 37 points and about 20 rebounds left with these Braves standouts. MVC Newcomer of the Year Marcellus Sommerville is going to have to carry this team. Too many unfamiliar faces fill the starting roster. Sommerville, who was named MVC Newcomer of the Week six times last season, has a tough leadership role ahead of him. If anybody can do it though, it’s the leading rebounder from the MVC last season.
It still appears as if the 2004-05 campaign is going to be a long one for the ‘Dogs. A bottom-half finish in the Valley seems inevitable.
