NCAA Tournament Crystal Ball
by Michael Protos
This week’s Crystal Ball reflects the shake-up within the ACC, Pittsburgh’s downward spiral, and the collapse of the Cavaliers.
The cloudiest portion of this week’s Crystal Ball was the No. 1 seeds. The first two are easy: Illinois and Kansas are undefeated and have played tough schedules to earn the top two spots in the NCAA Tournament. From there, it’s anyone’s guess. I see North Carolina, Syracuse, Duke, Boston College and Wake Forest as the most legitimate contenders for the other two No. 1 seeds; I gave them to North Carolina and Syracuse.
Here’s my rationale for choosing North Carolina. The Tar Heels lost to Santa Clara and Wake Forest on the road. The loss to Santa Clara was in the first game of the season and junior point guard Raymond Felton missed the game because of a suspension. Wake Forest has lost to Illinois and Florida State on the road. The loss to Illinois is excusable because the Illini are one of the top teams in the nation, and beating the best teams on the road is virtually impossible. By extension, the Tar Heels’ loss to Wake Forest falls under the same category. But the Demon Deacons don’t have the same excuses for losing at Florida State that the Tar Heels had for losing at Santa Clara.
As for Duke, the Blue Devils may be undefeated, but their schedule remains suspect. The best wins to date are at home against Michigan State and against Oklahoma in Madison Square Garden. If Duke can beat one of the ACC’s elite – North Carolina, Wake Forest or Georgia Tech – that will warrant moving Duke into the No. 1 fraternity.
As for the final No.1 seed, I give it to Syracuse because the Orange are the best team in the Big East and their only loss is to another powerhouse, Oklahoma State, on a neutral court at Madison Square Garden. Syracuse’s detractors argue that MSG might as well be on Syracuse’s campus. But it’s a five-hour ride through the Middle of Nowhere, New York, to get to New York City from Syracuse. For the average college student, that game might as well be in Las Vegas.
The last four teams I allowed in the tournament are Pittsburgh, Stanford, LSU and St. Mary’s. They slid past Tennessee, Xavier, Virginia and Miami. Pittsburgh, however, could quickly join Virginia as a formerly ranked team that doesn’t receive a bid. I know most polls still rank Pittsburgh in the top 20, but don’t think the selection committee members will overlook a schedule full of creampuffs and bad losses to teams such as Bucknell, St. John’s and Georgetown. Pittsburgh is one, maybe two losses away from earning its way out of the bracket altogether.
So, without any further ado, here are my predictions for the NCAA Tournament.
No. 1 Seeds
Illinois
Kansas
North Carolina
Syracuse
No. 2 Seeds
Duke
Boston College
Wake Forest
Washington
Last Four In
Pittsburgh
Stanford
LSU
St. Mary’s
Last Four Out
Tennessee
Xavier
Virginia
Miami
Chicago Region
First and second rounds in Indianapolis
No. 1 Illinois vs. winner of the play-in game between Monmouth (NEC) and Southern (SWAC)
No. 8 UCLA vs. No. 9 Vanderbilt
First and second rounds in Tucson
No. 5 Texas vs. No. 12 Pittsburgh
No. 4 Georgia Tech vs. No. 13 Bucknell (Patriot)
First and second rounds in Nashville
No. 6 Marquette vs. No. 11 Villanova
No. 3 Kentucky vs. No. 14 Davidson (Southern)
First and second rounds in Boise
No. 7 UTEP vs. No. 10 Pacific (Big West)
No. 2 Washington vs. No. 15 Northwestern State (Southland)
Syracuse Region
First and second rounds in Worcester, Mass.
No. 1 Syracuse vs. No. 16 Fairfield (MAAC)
No. 8 Charlotte vs. No. 9 Michigan
First and second rounds in Indianapolis
No. 5 Oklahoma vs. No. 12 St. Mary’s
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 13 Louisiana-Lafayette (Sun Belt)
First and second rounds in Cleveland
No. 3 Louisville vs. No. 14 Princeton (Ivy)
No. 6 George Washington vs. No. 11 Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Horizon)
First and second rounds in Charlotte
No. 7 Iowa vs. No. 10 Southern Illinois (MVC)
No. 2 Duke vs. No. 15 Mercer (Atlantic Sun)
Austin Region
First and second rounds in Oklahoma City
No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 16 Portland State (Big Sky)
No. 8 Maryland vs. No. 9 West Virginia
First and second rounds in Boise
No. 5 Arizona vs. No. 12 LSU
No. 4 Cincinnati vs. No. 13 Western Michigan (MAC)
First and second rounds in Cleveland
No. 6 Mississippi State vs. No. 11 UNLV
No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 14 Vermont (America East)
First and second rounds in Nashville
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 10 Arizona State
No. 2 Wake Forest vs. No. 15 Coppin State (MEAC)
Albuquerque Region
First and second rounds in Charlotte
No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 16 Samford (OVC)
No. 8 Florida vs. No. 9 Texas Tech
First and second rounds in Tucson
No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 12 Stanford
No. 4 Connecticut vs. No. 13 Old Dominion (CAA)
First and second rounds in Oklahoma City
No. 6 Gonzaga vs. No. 11 Temple
No. 3 Oklahoma State vs. No. 14 Oral Roberts (Mid-Continent)
First and second rounds in Worcester, Mass.
No. 7 Utah vs. No. 10 North Carolina State
No. 2 Boston College vs. No. 15 Winthrop (Big South)
Sweet 16
Chicago
Illinois vs. Georgia Tech
Washington vs. Kentucky
Syracuse
Charlotte vs. Oklahoma
Duke vs. Louisville
Austin
Kansas vs. Arizona
Wake Forest vs. Michigan State
Albuquerque
North Carolina vs. Old Dominion
Boston College vs. Oklahoma State
Elite Eight
Chicago: Illinois vs. Washington
Syracuse: Oklahoma vs. Louisville
Austin: Kansas vs. Wake Forest
Albuquerque: North Carolina vs. Oklahoma State
Final Four
Illinois vs. Louisville
Kansas vs. North Carolina
Championship
Illinois beats North Carolina
