NCAA Tournament Crystal Ball – March 13, 2005
by Michael Protos
Selection Sunday is finally upon us. Nervous bubble teams need only wait a few more hours before learning their fate. And six more conference championships are on the line, including the ACC, SEC, Big Ten and Big 12.
After another crazy day in conference tournaments, the four teams squeaking by has changed. UAB is in by a hair. The final spot was up for grabs among UAB, Iowa, Georgetown and Maryland, and to the Terrapins’ dismay, Clemson was once again the linchpin to deciding who goes and who stays.
The Blazers, Hoyas and Terrapins all played Clemson during the regular season. UAB and Georgetown beat the Tigers, but Maryland lost three times. All three bubble teams have a mixture of solid wins and bad losses. UAB has the best record but played in the weakest conference. But the Hoyas earned a spot out of the NCAA Tournament by losing six of seven to end the season. The Blazers, on the other hand, beat DePaul twice during the past two weeks.
Based on this information, UAB has a slight edge over Georgetown and Maryland. Meanwhile, Iowa played well to end the season after adjusting to life without Pierre Pierce. By beating Michigan State in the Big Ten quarterfinals, the Hawkeyes proved the committee can consider the laundry list of great early-season wins and not discount them as entirely dependent on the presence of Pierce. Iowa was the last team in the Tournament until Utah State stole an at-large bid by upsetting Pacific in the Big West championship game.
Among the tournament predictions, the biggest change is Oklahoma State’s regional final upset of North Carolina. Based on yesterday’s performances, Oklahoma State has the look of a champion while North Carolina has the look of a runner-up. The Final Four also includes Illinois, Wake Forest and Gonzaga.
The Crystal Ball’s last Final Four outlook is all about back to the future. Each match up follows a regular-season meeting. Illinois pounded Wake Forest in the ACC/Big East Challenge. The national semifinal game would be closer but end the same. And so would the semifinal between Gonzaga and Oklahoma State. The Bulldogs would once again take down the Cowboys on a neutral court that strongly favors Oklahoma State. In the championship game, Illinois would handle Gonzaga as the Illini did earlier in the season. The Bulldogs would become the first non-BCS conference team to reach the championship game since Utah lost to Kentucky in 1998.
Read on to see the rest of the bracket predictions.
No. 1 Seeds:
Illinois
North Carolina
Kentucky
Wake Forest
No. 2 Seeds:
Louisville
Duke
Oklahoma State
Washington
Squeaking By
Iowa State
North Carolina State
Notre Dame
UAB
Just Missing
Iowa
Georgetown
Maryland
Memphis
First Round Upsets
No. 12 Louisiana-Lafeyette vs. No. 5 Utah
No. 11 North Carolina State vs. No. 6 Pacific
No. 11 St. Mary’s vs. No. 6 LSU
No. 11 Iowa State vs. No. 6 Pittsburgh
No. 10 George Washington vs. No. 7 Charlotte
No. 9 Texas vs. No. 8 Cincinnati
No. 9 Minnesota vs. No. 8 UCLA
The Brackets
Chicago Region:
First and second rounds in Indianapolis
No. 1 Illinois vs. DELAWARE STATE (MEAC)
No. 8 West Virginia vs. No. 9 Mississippi State
First and second rounds in Tucson
No. 5 Utah vs. No. 12 LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE (Sun Belt)
No. 4 Oklahoma vs. No. 13 VERMONT (America East)
First and second rounds in Worcester
No. 6 Pacific vs. No. 11 North Carolina State
No. 3 Boston College vs. No. 14 WISCONSIN-MILWAUKEE (Horizon)
First and second rounds in Boise
No. 7 Texas Tech vs. No. 10 UTEP (WAC)
No. 2 WASHINGTON vs. No. 15 Northwestern State (Southland)
Albuquerque Region:
First and second rounds in Charlotte
No. 1 Wake Forest vs. No. 16 FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON (NEC)
No. 8 Cincinnati vs. No. 9 Texas
First and second rounds in Worcester
No. 5 Michigan State vs. No. 12 OLD DOMINION (CAA)
No. 4 SYRACUSE vs. No. 13 PENNSYLVANIA (Ivy)
First and second rounds in Tucson
No. 6 Wisconsin vs. No. 11 Notre Dame
No. 3 Kansas vs. No. 14 WINTHROP (Big South)
First and second rounds in Cleveland
No. 7 Georgia Tech vs. No. 10 Stanford
No. 2 LOUISVILLE vs. No. 15 NIAGARA (MAAC)
Austin Region:
First and second rounds in Indianapolis
No. 1 Kentucky vs. No. 16 MONTANA (Big Sky)
No. 8 UCLA vs. No. 9 Minnesota
First and second rounds in Cleveland
No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 12 UAB
No. 4 Connecticut vs. No. 13 OHIO (MAC)
First and second rounds in Boise
No. 6 Pittsburgh vs. No. 11 Iowa State
No. 3 GONZAGA (WCC) vs. No. 14 UTAH STATE (Big West)
First and second rounds in Nashville
No. 7 West Virginia vs. No. 10 DePaul
No. 2 Duke vs. No. 15 CENTRAL FLORIDA (Atlantic Sun)
Syracuse Region:
First and second rounds in Charlotte
No. 1 North Carolina vs. winner of play-in game between OAKLAND (Mid-Continent) and Alabama A&M (SWAC)
No. 8 CREIGHTON (MVC) vs. No. 9 Nevada
First and second rounds in Nashville
No. 5 Villanova vs. No. 12 NEW MEXICO (Mountain West)
No. 4 Florida vs. No. 13 BUCKNELL (Patriot)
First and second rounds in Oklahoma City
No. 6 LSU vs. No. 11 St. Mary’s
No. 3 Arizona vs. No. 14 TENNESSEE-CHATTANOOGA (Southern)
First and second rounds in Oklahoma City
No. 7 Charlotte vs. No. 10 GEORGE WASHINGTON (Atlantic 10)
No. 2 Oklahoma State vs. No. 15 EASTERN KENTUCKY (OVC)
Sweet 16
Chicago
No. 1 Illinois vs. No. 12 Louisiana-Lafayette
No. 3 Boston College vs. No. 7 Texas Tech
Albuquerque
No. 1 Wake Forest vs. No. 4 Syracuse
No. 3 Kansas vs. No. 7 Georgia Tech
Austin
No. 1 Kentucky vs. No. 4 Connecticut
No. 2 Duke vs. No. 3 Gonzaga
Syracuse
No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 5 Villanova
No. 2 Oklahoma State vs. No. 11 St. Mary’s
Elite Eight
Chicago: No. 1 Illinois vs. No. 3 Boston College
Albuquerque: No. 1 Wake Forest vs. No. 7 Georgia Tech
Austin: No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 4 Connecticut
Syracuse: No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 2 Oklahoma State
Final Four
No. 1 Illinois vs. No. 1 Wake Forest
No. 2 Oklahoma State vs. No. 3 Gonzaga
Championship
No. 1 Illinois beats No. 3 Gonzaga
