Pac-10 Conference 2005-06 Preview
by Scott Allen
With a bunch of the talent that defined the Pac-10 for the past four years now playing in the NBA – five players taken in the first two rounds of the NBA draft, including two in the top 10 – a whole new handful of stars will make their mark in a conference that should be more competitive and less top-heavy than in recent years. Only two members of the All Pac-10 team return in 2005, Stanford guards Chris Hernandez and Dan Grunfeld, making the Cardinal the early pick to win the conference title. Second-year head coach Trent Johnson also welcomes a solid recruiting class to the Farm, including forward Lawrence Hill.
Stanford should have plenty of competition at the top, however, as Arizona, UCLA and Cal all return a bevy of talent. The Wildcats must cope with the loss of Salim Stoudamire and Channing Frye, but Hassan Adams and Mustafa Shakur will make sure there’s no letdown in Tucson. UCLA lost its best scorer in Dijon Thompson, but the Bruins feature one of the most exciting young backcourts in the nation. Leon Powe is back from knee surgery for Cal making the Bears a dangerous sleeper team after a sub-par 2004-05 campaign. Washington, Oregon and USC could surprise some people this year while Washington State and Arizona State will probably battle it out to stay out of the conference cellar.
All Pac-10 Team:
F – Leon Powe, Cal
F – Matt Haryasz, Stanford
F – Hassan Adams, Arizona
G – Jordan Farmar, UCLA
G – Chris Hernandez, Stanford
Player of the Year:
Chris Hernandez, Stanford
Freshman of the Year:
Jon Brockman, Washington
Newcomer of the Year:
Omar Wilkes, Cal
Defensive Player of the Year:
Bobby Jones, Washington
Stanford Cardinal
2004-05 Record: 18-11, 11-7, T-3rd (Lost to Miss. State in NCAA First Round)
Projected Starting Five:
F-Matt Haryasz
F-Peter Prowitt
G-Tim Morris
G-Dan Grunfeld
G-Chris Hernandez
Circle the Dates:
Dec. 17 vs. Virginia Tech – The Hokies are no early-season cupcake, having returned quite a few players from the team that upset Duke last year and held its own in the ACC. This is a potential quality win for the Cardinal heading into Pac-10 play.
Feb. 11 at Gonzaga – Stanford heads to The Kennel for a tough game in the middle of the conference schedule.
Resilient was the word first-year head coach Trent Johnson liked to use last season to describe his squad. It was an apt description considering the Cardinal overcame the departure of three key players from its 30-win team the year prior and countless injuries – including leading scorer Dan Grunfeld’s season-ending ACL tear – to earn an NCAA Tournament bid for a 11th consecutive season. While forward Rob Little and swingman Nick Robinson are gone, Stanford returns a solid cast that will look to build on last season’s roller-coaster ride.
All-conference point guard Chris Hernandez leads the Cardinal and Grunfeld’s return gives Stanford one of the best backcourts in the Pac-10. Senior Matt Haryasz, a double-double threat, anchors the frontline alongside sophomores Peter Prowitt and Taj Finger. Stanford will be much deeper this season with the return of athletic wing Tim Morris from an academic suspension and the addition of three heralded freshmen. Lawrence Hill is the most heralded of the three but Mitch Johnson and Anthony Goods will see minutes as well.
Outlook: If Stanford remains healthy and the freshmen contribute it should win the Pac-10 crown and make some noise in the NCAA Tournament.
UCLA Bruins
2004-05 Record: 18-11, 11-7, T-3rd (Lost to Texas Tech in NCAA First Round)
Projected Starting Five:
C- Michael Fey
F- Ryan Hollins
F- Josh Shipp
G- Arron Afflalo
G- Jordan Farmar
Circle the Dates:
Dec. 17 at Michigan – The Bruins escaped with an 81-79 victory over the Wolverines last year at home but Tommy Amaker’s bunch should be much improved for the rematch in Ann Arbor.
Jan. 21 vs. West Virginia – Last year’s NCAA Tournament darlings come to Pauley Pavilion for a non-conference clash.
The Bruins jumped from 11 wins in the 2003-04 season to 18 last year and an NCAA Tournament bid under head coach Ben Howland. While the Bruins lost leading scorer Dijon Thompson, they return reigning Pac-10 Freshman of the Year Jordan Farmar and his talented backcourt mate and fellow sophomore Arron Afflalo. That duo combined for 24 points per game last season. Also returning is fifth-year senior Cedric Bozeman, who missed all of last season with a knee injury and adds depth to the Bruins’ loaded backcourt.
Questions remain about UCLA’s frontcourt, however. Seven-foot seniors Michael Fey and Ryan Hollins have not shown the ability to dominate during their careers in Westwood. Fey is often out-muscled by thicker bodies and Hollins has been a liability on the offensive end. Freshman power forward Ryan Wright could help remedy some of UCLA’s post woes along with sophomore Lorenzo Mata. Freshman center Alfred Aboya, coming off offseason knee surgery, could also see lots of playing time.
Outlook: With Farmar at the helm the Bruins can run with any – and past most – teams in the Pac-10 and should earn a second consecutive NCAA Tournament bid. If Hollins and Fey put together solid senior campaigns, UCLA could join Arizona and Stanford in the hunt for the conference crown.
Arizona Wildcats
2004-05 Record: 30-7, 15-3, 1st, (Lost to Illinois in NCAA Regional Final)
Projected Starting Five:
C- Kirk Walters
F- Hassan Adams
F- Ivan Radenovic
G- Chris Rodgers
G- Mustafa Shakur
Circle the Dates:
Nov. 21-23 at Maui Invitational – ‘Cats will get good early season tests against a field that includes Michigan State, Gonzaga and Maryland.
Feb. 18 at Stanford – Late-season conference clash at Maples Pavilion could decide Pac-10 champion.
The good news for Arizona fans is that head coach Lute Olson loses only two players from last year’s squad that seemed destined for a spot in the Final Four before suffering a late meltdown against Illinois. The bad news is that those two players – center Channing Frye and shooting guard Salim Stoudamire – were the Wildcats’ two biggest contributors last season. Frye’s departure leaves a gaping hole in the paint that must be filled by some combination of senior Isaiah Fox, junior Kirk Walters and redshirt freshman Mohamed Tangara. Rodgers will look to fill the shoes of the slick-shooting Stoudamire, who finished his career as the Pac-10’s all-time leader in three-pointers made.
The ‘Cats return All-Conference swingman Hassan Adams, who averaged 12.7 points and 6 rebounds per game and experienced, if inconsistent, point guard Mustafa Shakur. Both will have to elevate their games for Arizona to make a run at another Pac-10 title. Sophomore guard Jawaan McClellan, who averaged 7 points and 3.5 rebounds in increased minutes during the NCAA Tournament, has been declared academically ineligible until Dec. 17. While McClellan is out, freshman guard J.P. Prince will have an opportunity to earn increased playing time.
Outlook: Arizona remains a deep and talented squad that should make its 25th NCAA Tournament appearance come March, but Frye’s absence could lead to some bumps along the way. Just how far Arizona goes this season will likely hinge on the play of Shakur, who dished out 166 assists against 101 turnovers last season.
California Golden Bears
2004-05 Record: 13-15, 6-12, T-8th
Projected Starting Five:
F- Leon Powe
F- Rod Benson
F- Marquise Kately
G- Richard Midgley
G- Ayinde Ubaka
Circle the Dates:
Dec. 10 vs. Kansas – Leon Powe will test his mended knee against the Jayhawks’ talented frontcourt in Kansas City.
Jan. 13 at Stanford – The Bears invade Maples on Friday the 13th, looking to reverse their recent string of bad luck against the Cardinal.
The big news in Berkeley is that forward Leon Powe is back after missing all of last season while recovering from knee surgery. Powe was the 2004 Pac-10 Freshman of the Year after averaging 15.1 points and a conference-best 9.5 rebounds per game. He was sorely missed last season as the Bears used a revolving door of big men in the frontcourt with mixed results.
Cal didn’t lose any key pieces to last year’s team and enters the season with one of the deepest benches in the Pac-10, particularly in the frontcourt. Sophomore forward DeVon Hardin will push junior Marquise Kately for playing time and freshman Jordan Wilkes will add to the team’s depth in the post. Omar Wilkes, a transfer from Kansas, will see a lot of time off the bench and might earn a starting spot if Richard Midgley struggles at any point. Ayinde Ubaka, who was hampered by an injury for half of last season, will split time with senior Martin Smith at the point while Midgley provides senior leadership at the shooting guard position.
Outlook: Powe’s presence should translate to at least five more wins for the Bears, which would put Ben Braun’s squad in good position for an NCAA Tournament bid.
Washington Huskies
2004-05 Record: 29-6, 14-4, 2nd (Lost to Louisville in NCAA Regional Semifinal)
Projected Starting Five:
F- Bobby Jones
F- Jamaal Williams
F- Jon Brockman
G- Brandon Roy
G- Justin Dentmon
Circle the Dates:
Dec. 4 vs. Gonzaga – The Huskies’ state rival not from Pullman rolls into Seattle for Washington’s stiffest test of the season.
Dec. 31 vs. Arizona – Washington opens Pac-10 play against the Arizona schools and an upset of the Wildcats would vault the Huskies into the New Year with a whole lot of confidence.
Nate Robinson, Will Conroy and Tre Simmons are gone, so who exactly is left for head coach Lorenzo Romar? Well, senior guard Brandon Roy, who averaged 12.8 points and 5 rebounds per game last season, for one. Roy will be relied upon to lead a team that welcomes six freshmen along with fellow seniors Mike Jensen, Jamaal Williams and Bobby Jones. The most heralded of the freshmen class is forward Jon Brockman. The Washington native is arguably the best recruit Romar has landed during his tenure and gives the Huskies a low-post presence they have lacked in recent years.
Washington doesn’t figure to run as much as it did last season with Nate Robinson running the show, but the Huskies could still light up the scoreboard with sharpshooters Bobby Jones – 51 percent from deep – and sophomore Joel Smith on the wings.
Outlook: There’s no way the Huskies approach last season’s victory total, but if Brockman is as advertised and Romar finds a suitable point guard to replace Will Conroy, Washington will finish in the top half of the Pac-10.
Oregon Ducks
2004-05 Record: 14-13, 6-12, T-8th
Projected Starting Five:
F- Maarty Leunen
F- Mitch Platt
G- Bryce Taylor
G- Malik Hairston
G- Aaron Brooks
Circle the Dates:
Dec. 10 vs. Illinois – The national runner-up Illini make a trip to the Beaver State.
Jan. 14 vs. Arizona – The Ducks will be seeking revenge after getting blown out by Arizona in Tucson last season, 92-67.
Ducks fans shouldn’t have expected much more from this team last season after Luke Jackson departed for the NBA and the reins of the program were placed in the hands of freshman Malik Hairston. There should be fewer growing pains for Oregon this season, however, as Ernie Kent’s squad returns 87 percent of its scoring and 83 percent of its rebounding. The biggest void is in the middle after Ian Crosswhite was dismissed from the school last season. Mitch Platt and Maarty Leunen combined to averaged just 6.4 rebounds per game.
The Oregon backcourt is one of the best in the conference. Aaron Brooks led the team with over 14 points per game last season and was solid at the point while Taylor and Hairston combined for over 24 points per game. Seven-foot sophomore center Ray Schafer will likely see some playing time and his improvement could go a long way toward making the Ducks a competitor in the top half of the conference standings.
Outlook: With a year of experience under his belt, Hairston has the talent to carry this team on his back. If the frontcourt can rebound well throughout the year, Oregon should be in the hunt for an NCAA Tournament bid.
USC Trojans
2004-05 Record: 12-17, 5-13, 10th
Projected Starting Five:
F- RouSean Cromwell
F- Abdoulaye Ndiaye
F- Nick Young
G- Gabe Pruitt
G- Lodrick Stewart
Circle the Dates:
Dec. 21 vs. North Carolina – Yeah, yeah, UNC lost a bunch of guys, but knocking off the defending national champions would do wonders for this young team’s confidence.
Feb. 18 vs. UCLA – Cross-town rivalry should be one of the more exciting matchups in recent years with both programs on the way up.
First-year head coach Tim Floyd hopes to revive a Trojans squad that has fallen on hard times after a 22-win season in 2002. Ben Howland has seemingly turned around rival UCLA and Floyd could do the same with a squad that returns a trio of high-scoring sophomores in Lodrick Stewart, Gabe Pruitt and Nick Young. That group should fortify a solid perimeter game, but the loss of posts Rory O’Neil and Jeff McMillan equals one big question mark inside. Junior transfer Abdoulaye Ndiaye figures to log a lot of minutes and must be a force on the boards for a team that loses 72 percent of its rebounding.
Stewart, Pruitt and Young combined for over 26 points per game last season and that number should increase this year. Freshmen Jeremy Barr and RouSean Cromwell – the latter a McDonald’s All-American nominee – will have to grow up fast on a team that has only two seniors on the roster.
Outlook: Floyd should bring an attitude change to the Trojans, who never really responded to interim head coach Jim Saia. The sophomores will make USC fun to watch and a thorn in the sides of Pac-10 opponents throughout the year. The Trojans are still probably a year away from returning to the top half of the conference.
Oregon State Beavers
2004-05 Record: 17-15, 8-10, 5th
Projected Starting Five:
F- Nick DeWitz
F- Sasa Cuic
G- Chris Stephens
G- Lamar Hurd
G- Jason Fontenet
Circle the Dates:
Dec. 17 vs. Georgia – Bulldogs will provide Jay John’s squad a good early-season test.
Mar. 4 vs. Oregon – Big win in basketball version of the Civil War would strengthen postseason hopes.
The Beavers enjoyed their first winning season since 1990 and they did so by dominating at home. In conference play, Oregon State was 8-1 at Gill Coliseum but finished 0-9 on the road. That must change this year for the Beavers to improve on last year’s 17 wins. Oregon State must also get over the loss of All Pac-10 performer David Lucas, who led the team in scoring (18.5 points) and rebounding (7). Lucas’ rebounding might be the hardest thing to replace as Oregon State finished ninth in the conference in rebounding margin.
Nick DeWitz should lead the list of returnees in scoring after averaging 14 points per game last season. He will have plenty of help on the perimeter with guards Chris Stephens, Jason Fontenet and Angelo Tsagarakis all being capable scorers. Freshmen Josh Tarver and Calvin Hampton could challenge for playing time but are likely both a year away from making an impact.
Outlook: Oregon State should build on last year’s success and with a little better performance on the road should be in position to make some noise in the NIT.
Washington State Cougars
2004-05 Record: 12-16, 7-11, 7th
Projected Starting Five:
F- Daven Hamerling
F- Josh Akognon
F- Robbie Cowgill
G- Kyle Weaver
G- Derrick Low
Circle the Dates:
Dec. 8 at Gonzaga – Washington State was a giant-slayer last season, sweeping the season series against Stanford and upsetting Arizona in Tucson. Could the Zags be next?
Jan. 7 at Washington – Rivalry game will say a lot about head coach Dick Bennett’s young squad.
Though they won only 12 games last season, the Cougars continued to improve under the direction of head coach Dick Bennett, who enters his third season at Washington State. While their frustrating defense (56.9 points per game) allows the Cougars to hang with everyone, it will be difficult for Washington State to improve much on last year’s win total. There is only one senior on the roster, as the Cougars lost their best scoring threat in guard Thomas Kelati along with post players Chris Schlatter and Jeff Varem.
Without Kelati as the No. 1 option, the load falls on the shoulders of sophomore point guard Derrick Low, who is the Cougars’ top returning scorer at just 7 points per game. Fellow sophomore Robbie Cowgill developed into a solid player last season and should continue to get better to complement Low’s perimeter threat. Josh Akognon and Kyle Weaver must pick up the slack as well for Washington State to score enough points to win – even if that only means 60 a night.
Outlook: Nobody likes to see Washington State on their schedule these days, which goes to show how far the program has come under Bennett after winning just 13 games combined in the two years prior to his arrival. Still, there’s too little experience on the squad to think that 2005-06 won’t hold its fair share of growing pains.
Arizona State Sun Devils
2004-05 Record: 18-14, 7-11, 7th (Lost to UNLV in NIT First Round)
Projected Starting Five:
F- Serge Angounou
F- Allen Morill
F- Sylvester Seay
G- Kevin Kruger
G- Bryson Krueger
Circle the Dates:
Dec. 17 at Iowa – Twelve days after hosting Minnesota, the Sun Devils have a golden opportunity to knock off a Big 10 opponent on the road when they travel to Iowa.
Jan. 25 vs. Arizona – First of two against rival Wildcats could say a lot about the potential – or lack thereof – of head coach Rob Evans’ squad.
No team in the Pac-10 lost more in the off-season than Arizona State, as no player in the conference meant more to his team than first-round draft pick and reigning Pac-10 Player of the Year Ike Diogu. The All-American’s 22.6 points and 9.8 rebounds per game will be tough to replace, as will his shot-blocking ability on the defensive end. The Sun Devils also lost guard Steve Moore, who drained 62 three-pointers last season.
Despite Moore’s departure, the backcourt in Tempe remains strong. Kevin Kruger led the team with 69 three-pointers last season while averaging 11 points per game. Meanwhile, his 6-7 backcourt mate Krueger will play an increased role in the offense after averaging 6.7 points per game last season. Freshman forward Sylvester Seay should see immediate playing time as he steps into Diogu’s huge shoes.
Outlook: This team finished seventh in the conference with Ike Diogu, so it’s hard to see the Sun Devils improving much without him. If Angounou, Seay and Morill can provide the frontcourt scoring to complement the Kruger and Krueger combo, Arizona State could sneak into the Pac-10 Tournament.
