Evaluating the Evaluators
And so begins another journey that will take us to the 2006 NBA Draft. As I begin to cover another NBA Draft, I am personally thrilled to be a part of Hoopville.
For players expecting to be drafted this coming June, this whole process began years ago. NBA scouts have been watching some prospects since their AAU years began, and when all the evaluating and watching is finally over, some players will have been watched for over 6 years and seen over 75 times by some teams.
And after all that watching and observing and evaluating, you’d think that those paid to do the aforementioned tasks would have this down to a science. But no, they seem to miss the mark in every single draft.
Below are some of the more obvious misses:
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2004 No. 38: Chris Duhon – A bit late, no? No. 8: Rafael Araujo – And way early! 2003 2002 Here they are: Besides Gooden, it’s already fair to say that none of the others have really worked out as one might expect from early lottery picks. Even more amazing is that the lottery that year included the drafting of Jared Jeffries at 11, Melvin Ely at 12, and Marcus Haislip at 13. By the way, Carlos Boozer was selected 35th in 2002. 2001 |
Drafting is hardly a science as some of these horrid selections prove out. But how do the Spurs get Tony Parker at 28 in 2001, and Manu Ginobili with the 57th pick in 1999? Cleveland needed a shooting guard that year and took Trajan Langdon at No. 11 – 45 picks before Ginobili. Think the Spurs do their homework?
So how does a Michael Redd last until the 43rd pick in 2000 when players like DerMarr Johnson (6), Keyon Dooling (10), Jerome Moiso (11), and Courtney Alexander (13) are all lottery selections?
There’s no simple way to explain it other than the scouting system, or more specifically the evaluation process, is not working all the time. Scouts tend to see so much of some players that they become a bit jaded and are more inclined to talk about what players cannot do, rather than what they can do.
That would explain two draft ironies: the high number of international selections over the past ten drafts and the romancing of the high school player. In the case of the international players, until recently very few of them had been seen often enough to compile a thick book of evaluations. Many were being selected based more on the stats than anything else. Some international prospects were selected without a club scout ever having seen them.
As for the high school players, well, they are judged on the games scouts would see, but very few times would anyone see a good match up. Ultimately, these kids would dominate grossly weaker competition on their schedule and create a false reading of the player.
But perhaps the biggest, most glaring error in draft evaluation is how a player fits into an organization, and how that fit accelerates or stalls his development. If Chris Duhon was elsewhere, might he have grown into the role he now fills for the Bulls? Perhaps not, but teams that understand how to fill out a roster and draft role players always seem to be at the top of the standings. Think of Tayshaun Prince with the Pistons as a primary example of that formula. In that 2002 draft, Joe Dumars understood that Prince would fill a very specific role on his team, and made the selection with very little fanfare. The 23rd selection of that draft has gone on to become a key member of the Motor City squad, and many would argue an irreplaceable part. Ditto the Nets and their selection right after Detroit. They picked Nenad Krstic, kept him overseas for a year of seasoning he would not have gotten with the Nets, and then brought in a player ready to fill a role on their roster.
How Prince and Krstic are selected 23rd and 24th, while Dajuan Wagner, Chris Wilcox and Jared Jeffries all are picked in the top 11 is the mystery that defines the shortcomings and the brilliance draft evaluation.
So as we do every January, we begin NCAA conference play. Those players compiling off-the-chart stats against soft competition will be exposed, and the teams who played the tough pre-conference schedule will be rewarded. Player rankings will take serious turns for the better and worse over the next 8 weeks.
Seniors who are marginal candidates will look to secure one of 64 invitations to the (seniors only) Portsmouth (Virginia) Camp in April, while those looking at the post-lottery portion of the draft will seek out a Chicago Pre-Draft Camp roster spot.
Let’s take this ride together. I will be cataloging the comings and goings of players along the way, as well as consult with experts in the area of draft evaluation and I will interject my own opinions as well. I will be at those two draft camps, along with dozens of private workouts and finally at Madison Square Garden in New York City on draft night.
All in the quest to bring you the best draft coverage anywhere on the Web.
