Crystal Basketball

NCAA Tournament Crystal Basketball

by Dan Hauptman and Michael Protos

With the football season all but over, the attention now rightfully turns to the world of college basketball. In seven weeks, the NCAA Committee in Indianapolis will select 65 teams to play in March’s NCAA Tournament. But here at Hoopville, we are beating the committee down the lane and slamming the crystal ball into the basket.

Two of Hoopville’s senior writers, Dan Hauptman and Michael Protos, will fill out invitations to the Big Dance each week until the field is officially set on Selection Sunday, March 12. Here is the tip-off: Hauptman’s Hoops Horoscope vs. Protos’ Prognostications.

Hauptman’s Hoops Horoscope	Protos’ Prognostications
Connecticut Duke Memphis Texas	Duke Connecticut Texas Memphis
Villanova Gonzaga Florida Illinois	Villanova Illinois Gonzaga Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh Washington West Virginia Michigan State	George Washington Michigan State Indiana West Virginia
North Carolina State George Washington Iowa Tennessee	Washington LSU Florida Wisconsin
Ohio State Boston College Northern Iowa Indiana	UCLA Ohio State Tennessee Georgetown
UCLA Wisconsin Georgetown Arizona	Northern Iowa Iowa North Carolina State Oklahoma
Michigan Bucknell Cincinnati LSU	Maryland Bucknell Michigan Boston College
Wisconsin-Milwaukee Wichita State North Carolina Syracuse	Syracuse Iowa State Louisville Wichita State
Oklahoma Maryland Southern Illinois Kentucky	North Carolina Old Dominion Cincinnati Arizona
Iowa State Louisville Air Force Vanderbilt	Xavier Venderbilt Creighton Marquette
UAB Creighton Kansas State Marquette	Arkansas UAB Wisconsin-Milwaukee Air Force
Xavier Colorado Utah State Ohio	California Kentucky Akron Nevada
UTEP Old Dominion Iona Western Kentucky	Western Kentucky Northwestern State Iona San Diego State
Tennessee Tech Montana Penn Northwestern State	Hawaii Winthrop Tennessee Tech Montana
Pacific Winthrop Davidson Albany	Penn Davidson Oral Roberts Albany
IUPUI Delaware State Central Connecticut State Lipscomb Southern	UC Irvine East Tennessee State Southern Robert Morris Delaware State
Last four in: Marquette Xavier Colorado UTEP	Last four in: Air Force California Kentucky Nevada
Last four out: San Diego State Clemson Arkansas Saint Joseph’s	Last four out: Kansas Wake Forest Miami Oklahoma State
Conference Breakdown: Big East: 9 Big Ten: 7 ACC: 5 SEC: 5 Big 12: 5 Missouri Valley: 4 Pac-10: 3 Conference USA: 3 Atlantic 10: 2 22 one-bid conferences	Conference Breakdown: Big East: 9 Big Ten: 7 SEC: 6 ACC: 5 Pac-10: 4 Big 12: 3 Missouri Valley: 3 Atlantic 10: 2 Conference USA: 2 Mountain West: 2 WAC:2 20 one-bid conferences

As might be expected, Protos and Hauptman agree on the top dozen or so teams, minus a few variations in seeding. Protos likes Duke as the overall No. 1 seed and Texas ahead of Memphis by virtue of the Longhorns’ head-to-head win. Hauptman prefers Memphis’ No. 2 RPI rating to Texas’ No. 11, and the Connecticut Huskies draw the top seed in his field. Among the No. 2 and 3 seeds, Hauptman rewards hot starts, keeping Florida and Washington near the top. But Protos is less forgiving of recent conference losses, opting for George Washington and Indiana.

Despite their variation among the rest of the seeds, Hauptman and Protos both give props to the Bigs. The Big East and Big Ten account for 16 bids – a full 25 percent – in each field. All seven of the Big Ten’s tourney-bound teams earn at least a No. 7 seed. The Big East has even more power at the top, with four teams with No. 3 seeds or better. Although most media folks have been lauding the Big Ten and Big East all season, don’t forget that those two conferences contributed three of last season’s Final Four teams. Their success isn’t new, and Hauptman and Protos foresee the success continuing.

For the teams on the bubble, Hauptman sees the stars aligning for Marquette, Xavier, Colorado and UTEP – his last four in the NCAA Tournament. On the other hand, San Diego State, Clemson, Arkansas and Saint Joseph’s become NIT favorites. In addition to Colorado and UTEP, Hauptman likes Kansas State and Southern Illinois – a No. 9 seed in his field – while Protos hands them with a towel to clean up their burst bubbles.

Protos gives the stamp of approval to Air Force, California, Kentucky and Nevada as the last four to make the NCAA Tournament. Kansas, Wake Forest, Miami and Oklahoma State constitute the last four out and some of the most notable absences. Like Protos, Hauptman’s vision for the NCAA Tournament includes Kentucky and Air Force, but he doesn’t see Arkansas, Nevada, California or San Diego State in his field, as Protos does.

Whose field looks more accurate to you? Or are both Protos and Hauptman off target? Send us an e-mail to comment on the Crystal Ball. Then check back each week to follow the evolution of Protos’ and Hauptman’s visions for the NCAA Tournament.