Crystal Basketball

NCAA Tournament Crystal Ball

by Dan Hauptman and Michael Protos

March 3, 2006

In the next week, Dan Hauptman and Michael Protos will be spending a lot of quality time with their crystal basketballs. The calendar has changed, the conference tournaments are here, March Madness is upon us.

The 65 teams will officially be etched into the bracket in one week, but there is a lot of work that needs to be done on and off the courts before the final decisions can be made. The No. 1 question is which 34 schools will occupy the 34 at-large spots in the NCAA Tournament. Hauptman and Protos unanimously agree that this is the hardest component when filling out a Big Dance card, but they also have come to this controversial conclusion: the NCAA doesn’t need 34 at-large teams.

When the 31st conference was granted an “automatic berth” in 2001, the NCAA kept the number of at-large teams the same and added a play-in game between two No. 16 seeds on the Tuesday before the opening Thursday. Hauptman and Protos argue that this essentially makes the berths for the two smallest conference winners anything but “automatic,” as the schools still have to win another game to get the chance to lose – a No. 16 seed has never won a first-round contest – to a No. 1 seed.

In recent weeks, our Hoopville prognosticators have been having a hard time finding 34 worthy at-large teams in this year’s field. This may change if upsets in conference tournaments take away spots from the assumed at-large pool. But barring a wild last week, the committee ought to consider punishing the at-larges by one and making the term “automatic” ring true for the little teams that could.

Hauptman’s Hoops Horoscope	Protos’ Prognostications
Connecticut Duke Memphis Villanova	Connecticut Duke Villanova Memphis
Texas Gonzaga Ohio State George Washington	Ohio State Texas Gonzaga Illinois
Pittsburgh Illinois Tennessee UCLA	UCLA LSU North Carolina Pittsburgh
North Carolina Iowa LSU Oklahoma	George Washington Tennessee West Virginia Iowa
Kansas West Virginia Michigan State Florida	Oklahoma Kansas Boston College Marquette
Boston College Wichita State Wisconsin Arizona	Georgetown Washington Michigan State Wichita State
Missouri State North Carolina State Georgetown Marquette	Nevada Florida Wisconsin Alabama
Nevada Washington Kentucky Northern Iowa	North Carolina State Kentucky George Mason Arkansas
California George Mason UAB Bucknell	Michigan Arizona Missouri State Bucknell
Wisconsin-Milwaukee Creighton Cincinnati Michigan	Creighton Northern Iowa Indiana UAB
Alabama Seton Hall Air Force UNC-Wilmington	Cincinnati UNC-Wilmington California Seton Hall
Southern Illinois Arkansas Florida State Texas A&M	Southern Illinois Texas A&M Hofstra Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky Colorado Murray State Kent State	San Diego State Wisconsin-Milwaukee Kent State Iona
Manhattan Penn Winthrop Northern Arizona	Northwestern State Murray State Winthrop Pacific
Northwestern State Oral Roberts Albany Pacific	Penn Oral Roberts Northern Arizona Albany
Georgia Southern Fairleigh Dickinson Lipscomb Delaware State Southern	Delaware State Belmont Fairleigh Dickinson Georgia Southern Southern
Last four in: Arkansas Florida State Texas A&M Colorado	Last four in: Seton Hall Southern Illinois Texas A&M Hofstra
Last four out: San Diego State Syracuse Hofstra Houston	Last four out: Syracuse Bradley Air Force Florida State
Conference Breakdown: Big East: 8 Big Ten: 6 SEC: 6 ACC: 5 Big 12: 5 Missouri Valley: 5 Pac-10: 4 Conference USA: 2 Colonial: 2 22 one-bid conferences	Conference Breakdown: Big East: 8 Big Ten: 7 SEC: 6 Missouri Valley: 5 ACC: 4 Big 12: 4 Pac-10: 4 Colonial: 3 Conference USA: 2 22 one-bid conferences
Shooting Stars: North Carolina Kentucky Nevada Washington	Shooting Stars: Ohio State LSU Alabama Texas A&M
Sinking Ships: North Carolina State Tennessee Northern Iowa Cincinnati	Sinking Ships: Syracuse Florida Northern Iowa North Carolina State

As mentioned above, Hauptman and Protos would rather give a truly automatic bid in a field of 64 to Delaware State, Georgia Southern and Southern than let Colorado or Hofstra sneak into the field of 65. Hauptman and Protos both see Southern as the bottom seed in the NCAA Tournament, but the former pairs the Jaguars with Delaware State while Protos puts them with Georgia Southern.

With conference tournaments well under way, some of these teams will soon lock up their bids. And as teams like Bucknell, George Mason and Gonzaga take the court this weekend, all the bubble teams’ fans will be furiously rooting for those schools in hopes that their respective conferences don’t steal extra bids. The Crystal Basketball, however, would not mind a few extra invitations for supposed one-bid conferences to weed out weak bubble teams like Colorado, Hofstra, Texas A&M and Seton Hall. Of course, Hofstra has an excellent chance to earn the CAA’s automatic bid by winning the conference tournament in Richmond.

Among the major conferences, the battle at the top remains unsettled with Duke, Memphis, Villanova and Texas all losing within the past week. Connecticut is now the top No. 1 du jour for Hauptman and Protos, while they both have Duke at the second No. 1 spot. Given the losses of most of the top squads, the Crystal Basketball observers continue to place Villanova and Memphis among the No. 1 seeds. But watch out for Ohio State and Gonzaga, two teams that had been on the outside of the No. 1 discussion until this week.

Two interesting teams to watch in their last regular-season games and conference tournaments are LSU and North Carolina. The Tigers and Tar Heels have young teams with veteran leadership at key positions. Both are playing their best basketball at the end of the season. Protos has LSU and North Carolina as No. 3 seeds, while Hauptman predicts they will land No. 4 seeds. But given the fluidity at the top, both teams could surge forward. A No. 2 is very reasonable, which would be a shock considering neither team was ranked to start the season.

Whose field looks more accurate to you? Or are both Hauptman and Protos off target? E-mail comments on the Crystal Basketball or give us your NCAA Tournament prognostications. Then check back throughout this final week, as Hauptman’s and Protos’ visions for the Big Dance will become clearer and clearer as the days until Selection Sunday count down. The calendar reads March. Madness ensues.

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