Atlantic Coast Conference Notebook
The regular season ended in spectacular fashion in the ACC as a few teams surged in the standings while others dropped. But the talk of the ACC is Duke’s two-game losing streak.
The Blue Devils had wrapped up the ACC title a few weeks ago and entered the week with an opportunity to finish the season perfect in conference play. Florida State quickly ended that thought by upsetting Duke 79-74 in Tallahassee. But perhaps the bigger upset came later in the week on Senior Night. The Blue Devils’ hated rival, North Carolina, came into Cameron Indoor Stadium and knocked off Duke 83-76.
So what’s going down in Durham? Is Duke falling apart after a fantastic three and a half months?
Blue Devil haters nationwide are ready to cast Duke among the ranks of the overrated and doom the team to an early NCAA Tournament exit. That’s a short-sighted conclusion when considering Duke’s season-long body of work. And the statistics indicate a rare convergence of trends that lead to an upset of Duke.
In both losses, Duke failed to get to the line as much as usual. On average, the Blue Devils shoot 25 free throws per game, hitting 19 of them. With Duke’s attacking offense, the Blue Devils draw a lot of fouls, and they rely on scoring from the charity stripe more than most other teams. But against Florida State, Duke attempted only 17 free throws to the Seminoles’ 42 tries. The margin was much less extreme against the Tar Heels as North Carolina shot 23 free throw attempts to Duke’s 15.
In addition to the decrease in free throw productivity, Duke shot more three-pointers, but the Blue Devils weren’t hitting them particularly frequently. Duke averages 19 three-point attempts per game, but the team heaved 26 attempts against North Carolina and 22 at Florida State. They shot 36 percent from beyond the arc against the Seminoles and less than 30 percent against the Tar Heels. On the season, the Blue Devils drain the long ball nearly 40 percent of the time.
Lastly, Florida State and North Carolina attacked Shelden Williams to force fouls. Williams fouled out late in the game at Florida State and had four fouls during much of the closing minutes against North Carolina. He played 32 minutes in each game. With Williams out of the game, Duke has no viable alternative in the paint. Freshman forward Josh McRoberts is not a great defender, and his offensive game stagnated last week as he scored only six points in two games.
So the shooting trends and Williams’ foul trouble spelled trouble for Duke. To avoid committing fouls against Duke’s driving guards, teams must play sound defense – a sign of great coaching – or get a lot of favorable missed calls from the referees. To limit Duke’s three-point shooting percentage, opponents must have tall, athletic perimeter defenders. To get Williams in foul trouble, opponents must have smart, strong post players who don’t shy away from contact. Clearly, the combination of all that is rare. But Florida State and North Carolina happen to possess those qualities and all three worked in harmony against Duke. That’s even rarer.
Although Duke has a two-game losing streak entering the post-season, the Blue Devils are by no means in danger of an NCAA Tournament flame out. The odds are Duke will learn from these setbacks and devise contingency plans for responding to opponents that can fulfill the above requirements for an upset.
ACC Player of the Week: Tyler Hansbrough, North Carolina
In the Tar Heels’ biggest win of the year – an 83-76 win at Duke – Hansbrough was unstoppable, dominating his senior Blue Devil counterpart, Shelden Williams, with 27 points and 10 rebounds. In only third attempt of the season, Hansbrough drained a killer three-pointer as the shot clock expired. Earlier in the week, Hansbrough put up 13 points and eight rebounds in only 27 minutes in a blowout win against Virginia.
ACC Rookie of the Week: Tyler Hansbrough, North Carolina
See above.
ACC Coach Watch: Mike Krzyzewski, Duke
Saddled with a two-game losing streak to end the season, Coach K must keep the team focused on improving its play. More importantly, his players need a rest before turning their attention to post-season play. Florida State and North Carolina represent two different squads with similar threats to Duke’s game plan. Krzyzewski has the better part of a week to review the game plan and tweak it as necessary.
Duke Blue Devils (27-3, 14-2)
Last week:
Loss: at Florida State, 79-74
Loss: North Carolina, 83-76
ACC Tournament: No. 8 Miami or No. 9 Clemson on Friday
The Blue Devils are in an interesting position entering the ACC Tournament after dropping their last two games of the season. At 27-3, Duke is in no danger of losing its place as a No. 1 seed, even if the Blue Devils lose in the quarterfinals to Miami or Clemson. But Duke needs to regain momentum heading into the NCAA Tournament. After another poor shooting performance from senior guard J.J. Redick, including 2-of-10 three-pointers against North Carolina, the Blue Devils need to give Redick some rest then get him back in rhythm.
Look for coach Mike Krzyzewski to right the ship this week, and Duke will look to make a statement in the ACC Tournament. That means that the winner of Miami vs. Clemson is in trouble. An intriguing semifinal match up could pit No. 5 Florida State against Duke for the teams’ second meeting in nine days.
North Carolina Tar Heels (21-6, 12-4)
Last week:
Win: Virginia, 99-54
Win: at Duke, 83-76
ACC Tournament: No. 7 Virginia or No. 10 Virginia Tech on Friday
The young Tar Heels are shooting up the polls and bracketology charts, largely on the strength of a seven-game winning streak that includes last week’s win at Duke. Coach Roy Williams has North Carolina playing its best basketball at the end of the season, and the NCAA Tournament selection committee will take note. If the Tar Heels continue their streak in the ACC Tournament, North Carolina could earn a No. 2 seed. To make that happen, North Carolina must beat its quarterfinal opponent and probably needs to beat Boston College – or any other semifinal opponent – to reach the finals. A loss to anyone but Duke in the ACC championship game would likely prevent the Tar Heels from surging into a No. 2 spot. Regardless of whether North Carolina gets a No. 2 or 3 seed, this year is a stunning success for the Tar Heels following last year’s national championship and the departure of the top seven scorers.
Boston College Eagles (24-6, 11-5)
Last week:
Win: Wake Forest, 80-65
Win: Virginia Tech, 59-57
ACC Tournament: No. 6 Maryland or No. 11 Georgia Tech on Friday
Like North Carolina, Boston College is among the rising teams in the ACC. The Eagles ended the season by winning 13 of 15 games. Boston College is likely going to earn a No. 5 or 6 seed, but a strong run in the ACC Tournament could push Boston College to another No. 4 seed – just like last season. Most of the Eagles’ wins have been close games, and Boston College needs to prove they can dominate opponents, especially weaker ones. So Boston College can best improve its lot by blowing out Maryland or Georgia Tech in the quarterfinals. A potential win against No. 2 North Carolina – in a close game or not – would also do the trick.
North Carolina State Wolfpack (21-8, 10-6)
Last week:
Loss: at Wake Forest, 76-63
ACC Tournament: No. 5 Florida State or No. 12 Wake Forest on Friday
The Wolfpack had a disastrous end to the season as losers of three consecutive games and four of the last six, including losses to Georgia Tech and Wake Forest, the ACC’s cellar dwellers. After holding second in the conference much of the season, North Carolian State slipped to fourth and might have to play sizzling Florida State in the quarterfinals. A fourth consecutive loss entering the NCAA Tournament could doom the Wolfpack to a No. 8 or 9 seed in the tournament. For North Carolina State to climb to a No. 6 seed or better, the Wolfpack must beat the Seminoles and No. 1 Duke in the semifinals. Despite North Carolina State’s recent struggles, this team has the talent and experience to rally to a surprising run. They did it last season by beating No. 2 Wake Forest in the quarterfinals, sealing the team’s bid to the NCAA Tournament.
Florida State Seminoles (19-8, 9-7)
Last week:
Win: Duke, 79-74
Win: at Miami, 67-64
ACC Tournament: vs. No. 12 Wake Forest on Thursday
Florida State has been on a roll the past few weeks, winning four of the team’s last five. That includes a win against Duke that many feel will propel the Seminoles into the NCAA Tournament. But don’t count the Seminoles in quite yet. Florida State possesses a mediocre RPI of 53 and a terrible non-conference strength of schedule of 316. The Seminoles lack any great wins besides the Duke victory. Although Florida State is in a precarious position, the Seminoles are in the best position to make a run of the ACC’s bubble teams. If Florida State can take care of No. 12 Wake Forest in the opening round and take down No. 4 North Carolina State in the quarterfinals, the Seminoles should have as good a case as other bubble teams like Bradley, Missouri State, Colorado and Texas A&M. Short of winning the whole shebang, the best way to seal the deal is to beat No. 1 Duke in the semifinals for two wins against the Blue Devils in nine days.
Maryland Terrapins (18-11, 8-8)
Last week:
Win: Miami, 65-61
Win: at Virginia, 71-70
ACC Tournament: vs. No. 11 Georgia Tech on Thursday
Just when everyone is ready to stick a fork in the Terrapins and declare them cooked, Maryland turns around to win two games to end the season against rival ACC bubble teams Miami and Virginia. That includes a road win in Charlottesville. Maryland’s résumé is actually stronger than Florida State’s on paper with an RPI of 54, a strength of schedule of 11 and a non-conference strength of schedule of 58. Maryland has two wins against the RPI top 50 while Florida State has only one. But the Seminoles won the only meeting between the two teams. Maryland cannot depend on the whims of the selection committee. The Terps must beat Georgia Tech, Boston College and North Carolina in succession to have any serious at-large hopes. If Maryland can get to 21 wins and pick up two more top 50 wins, the Terrapins should be dancing.
Virginia Cavaliers (14-13, 7-9)
Last week:
Loss: at North Carolina, 99-54
Loss: Maryland, 71-70
ACC Tournament: vs. No. 10 Virginia Tech on Thursday
The Cavaliers are the first of six ACC teams that must win the conference tournament to reach the NCAA Tournament. Virginia floundered down the stretch, losing its final three games, including two ugly blowout losses at Clemson and North Carolina. Those two pasted the Cavaliers to the tune of a combined 71-point deficit. That’s more points than the Cavaliers put up in any of the three losses. At 14-13, Virginia needs to pick up a win against Virginia Tech in the first round to guarantee at least a .500 record for the season. Likely NIT participants, Virginia could slip below .500 if the Cavaliers lose to the Hokies and their first-round NIT opponent.
Miami Hurricanes (15-14, 7-9)
Last week:
Loss: at Maryland, 65-61
Loss: Florida State, 67-64
ACC Tournament: vs. No. 9 Clemson on Thursday
The Hurricanes win the award for best implosion by an ACC squad. After beating Georgia Tech Feb. 4, Miami was 6-3 in the conference and ready to start a four-game stretch against ranked opponents. If Miami had won just two of those games, they would be near locks for the NCAA Tournament. But Miami lost all four games, then added losses to Maryland and Florida State to end the season. That’s just ugly. Miami fell all the way to eighth and must play a dangerous Clemson squad in the opening round to earn the rights to play an angry No. 1 Duke.
Clemson Tigers (18-11, 7-9)
Last week:
Win: at Virginia Tech, 86-81
Win: Georgia Tech, 95-82
ACC Tournament: vs. No. 8 Miami on Thursday
Clemson is back to relishing its role as the conference’s official spoiler. Last season, the Tigers single-handedly brought down Maryland’s NCAA Tournament aspirations. This season, Clemson killed Virginia with a brutal 90-64 beating. Winners of three straight to end the season, Clemson enters the ACC Tournament as a hot team and has an opportunity to put the nail in Miami’s coffin in the first round. The Hurricanes are not a likely NCAA Tournament squad, but the Tigers would love to re-emphasize their role as upset artists. Like last year, if Clemson wins, they face the tournament’s No. 1 seed in the quarterfinals. This year, it’s Duke, which the Tigers took to the wire earlier this season.
Virginia Tech Hokies (14-15, 4-12)
Last week:
Loss: Clemson, 86-81
Loss: at Boston College, 59-57
ACC Tournament: vs. No. 7 Virginia on Thursday
Virginia Tech has had a disappointing and emotionally wrenching season with all sorts of injuries and health problems to key players and their family members. The Hokies still have a lot of talent and could frustrate a couple of ACC opponents in the tournament, especially No. 7 Virginia. The Hokies lost twice to their rivals, so they would love nothing more than to beat Virginia and kill the Cavaliers’ fading NCAA Tournament dreams. A second round date with North Carolina would give the Hokies an opportunity to exact revenge on the Tar Heels, who escaped Blacksburg with a three-point victory in January. But the Tar Heels of March are a far better and different team than the Tar Heels of January.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (11-16, 4-12)
Last week:
Loss: at Clemson, 95-82
ACC Tournament: vs. No. 6 Maryland on Thursday
The Yellow Jackets are showing signs of life toward the end of this season despite sporting the worst overall record at 11-16. Georgia Tech has tons of youth that is gathering critical experience. Of the last five losses, the Yellow Jackets have been within eight points in every game. So they play tough against some of the ACC’s best. That means Maryland will have its hand full with the Yellow Jackets Thursday. The Terrapins slipped past Georgia Tech by three in overtime a few weeks ago, and the Yellow Jackets would love to avenge the loss and face Boston College in the quarterfinals. A Jan. 8 victory against the Eagles in Atlanta accounts for one-quarter of all of Georgia Tech’s ACC wins.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (15-15, 3-13)
Last week:
Loss: at Boston College, 80-65
Win: North Carolina State, 76-63
ACC Tournament: vs. No. 5 Florida State
Entering this season, Wake Forest certainly could not have imagined that it would finish last in the regular-season standings. But a win against North Carolina State in the finale makes the Demon Deacons 1-0 in March. Wake Forest could potentially make a run to the NIT if they beat No. 5 Florida State, No. 4 North Carolina State and pull off the upset of the tournament against No. 1 Duke. At that point, they’d be in the conference championship game and an NCAA Tournament berth would be in reach. But more likely, the TV remote will be the only thing in reach for Demon Deacon players by the end of Thursday.
