The NBA Draft Preview 2006
With the NBA’s Pre-Draft Camp about to debut in Orlando after several years in Chicago, we begin to take a deeper and more intense look at the upcoming NBA Draft. The intrigue leading up to this year’s draft is really more about what isn’t going to happen than what will happen. This year the league will not be chasing the underage high school prospects, and with a reduced international crop will have to rely on NCAA Division I basketball players.
And what a solid crop we have to look over this year. Even with the three stars of Billy Donovan’s NCAA title team absent from this draft, it’s still chock full of talent, both at the top as well as throughout.
No matter what a team needs this June, there’s someone in this draft waiting for them. There may be no franchise players here as critics claim, but certainly a larger crop of rotation players than usual.
So without further adieu, let’s meet the top players who will be competing for the top spots in the order I expect may happen.
First up: the lottery guys
1. Tyrus Thomas, LSU (6-9, 215, Fr. SF)
Thomas exploded onto the national scene in December with some spectacular games and quickly shot up most draft boards. As the season progressed, he continued to develop. The NBA is impressed with his outstanding athleticism; I’m impressed that he uses it so well. A fantastic defender with a stunning wing span, both inside where he blocks shots-a-plenty and on the ball where he displays relentless, dogged energy, Thomas is also rounding into a dependable scorer – again both inside and out. His NBA career will begin at small forward, but somewhere down the line, he’ll grow into a true 4. The only legitimate franchise player is this draft; expect Thomas to get #1 billing on draft night.
2. LaMarcus Aldridge, Texas (6-10, 240, So. PF)
If Thomas flies off the board at #1, then Aldridge should quickly follow. The game-changer and defensive dominator may lack polished offensive moves and range on his shot, but his defensive antics changes games. His offensive shortcomings are mere opportunities to improve, which most teams don’t mind working on. A tireless player, Aldridge should eventually become a NBA superstar, but right now will settle for being a #2 selection.
3. Brandon Roy, Washington (6-6, 200, Sr. SG)
One of this drafts quickest risers, Roy is limiting his workouts to top 7 teams only, and so far is expected to be drafted within that range and as high as 3rd overall where we have him. Roy is a complete shooting guard. He has the height and handle to create off the dribble for himself and others. He’s patient, selfless, and is perhaps the best mid-range shooter in this draft. A potent slasher, Roy also delivers on the defensive side of the ball as well. His stock is rising at just the right time.
4. Andrea Bargnani, Benneton Treviso (Italy) (7-0, 225, PF)
A terrific shooter with range, and an impressive defensive effort every night, Bagnani is best suited to a team committed to scoring first. His skills on the “O” side of the ball are legendary throughout all of Euro-ball, and his ability to take over games late with clutch shooting has earmarked Bargnani for the NBA. Though a bit soft inside, and quite possibly avoiding contact at all costs, his upside is what has scouts drooling, and come draft night, he can expect a top 5 call.
5. Marcus Williams, Connecticut (6-3, 205, Jr. PG)
A year after most experts predicted the draft would be devoid of a stud PG for at least 3 years, here comes lottery selection Williams, who had a banner year at UConn. His late season heroics cemented his reputation as a solid ball distributor who thinks pass first, shoot last. An excellent decision maker and terrific on the break, Williams has had some history with the law and that could potentially derail his top 5 chances in this draft, but he is clearly the top PG available.
6. Shelden Williams, Duke (6-9, 250, Sr. PF)
The 3rd PF among the top 6 ranked players, Williams is another Duke biggie whose game will translate into more in the NBA than the ACC. An excellent defender and perhaps the top low post defender/rebounder/shot-blocker in this draft, Williams has improved his offensive game adding a mid-range jumper to his slippery inside moves. A workhorse who will thrill whichever team drafts him, expect Williams to shine in the NBA.
7. Rudy Gay, Connecticut (6-9, 215, So. SF)
Gay was the preseason consensus #1 pick in this draft. Then the season began and his draft stock tumbled as inconsistent play, framed by an apparently indifferent attitude, caught everyone’s eye. Does Gay take that game, or the one highlighted by raw, explosive athleticism on display during his freshman campaign? Gay has the physical tools to be every bit as good as a top 3 selection, but his mental approach and occasional disappearing act stamp him as a risky pick. He can shoot it, run the break, create off the dribble and finish as good as any player in this draft. But which Rudy Gay will be drafted come June.
8. Adam Morrison, Gonzaga (6-8, 215, Jr. SF)
Stop already with the Larry Bird comparisons. Bird is an all-time great; Morrison is a great college player whose game may not be suited so well to the pros. He has shown the ability to get his shot cooking in college, but will face nightly defenders quicker than what he’s been used to. Will he be able to adjust? He’ll have to, because he won’t be beating his man off the dribble. However the biggest flaw in his game will be on the defensive side of the ball, where his lack of foot speed could curtail his minutes during the first 2-3 seasons of NBA ball. I’ll wager he’ll be drafted higher than his ability indicates and down the road we’ll all nod our heads as to why.
9. Rodney Carney, Memphis (6-6, 205, Sr. SG)
The best all-round SG in this draft, Carney is an athletic freak who can get up and down the floor quicker than almost any D-I player. His ability to finish on the break is among his best assets, but never leave out his ability to hit a clutch shot from near or far. A decent defender who has room to improve on that side of the ball, Carney will impress more for his offensive arsenal than anything else.
10. Tiago Splitter, Tau Ceramica (Spain) (6-11, 240, PF)
A man-beast at times, and a marshmallow at others, Splitter may or may not stay in this draft – largely based upon the value of buying out his contract. He has NBA ability, and has shown well on the big stages of Euro-ball. He has, however, missed time with injuries and needs to impress in private team workouts to secure a top 10 slot. Defensively, he’s one the best to come from overseas in years.
11. Ronnie Brewer, Arkansas (6-7, 220, Jr. G-F)
Brewer is equally comfortable at PG, SG or SF. He can obviously handle it well enough, shoot it consistently enough and handle business on the wing to impress several NBA teams who are quite interested in his skills. Brewer’s draft stock will be increased by teams looking for the next best at a position after the best has been drafted. Do not think he’s not up to the task. Brewer may have the ability to be a shorter version of Josh Howard and could be a success at 2-3 positions.
12. Randy Foye, Villanova (6-4, 205, Sr. PG)
Foye caught the attention of scouts during his junior season and rattled their cages in his senior campaign. His ability to run an offense, take and make the needed jump shot, defend the point and the perimeter have gotten him rave reviews. He has a tendency to shoot it more than a true point will, but the game in the NBA has changed some, and that is no longer a detriment to selecting him late in the lottery.
13. J.J. Redick, Duke (6-5, 200, Sr. SG)
Perhaps no better player has been maligned more than Redick. The NBA guys talk more about what he can’t do than what he can do. Mock draft sites criticize his supposed inability to get his own shot or handle the ball or…. Enough already! All J.J. can do is play the game, shoot the ball and win. A vastly better defender than critics suggest and truly able to create off the dribble, Redick can and will succeed in the pros. If his tock takes a serious dive, he could end up with a mature, stable organization and fill the SG position for many years.
14. Patrick O’Bryant, Bradley (7-0, 260, So. C)
Take a largely skilled but raw player, give him a special March run, and declare him ready for the NBA and what do you have? The next Michael Olawakandi? Perhaps. Patrick O is certainly raw, but has the potential to be a big-time player. Will coming out early curtail his development? Very possibly. A big man usually doesn’t last long in the draft, and if O’Bryant goes to a lottery regular, then he could find himself thrust into big minutes before his game is developed enough to handle it. So far his size, hustle and energy have carried him to collegiate success, but there’s every possibility that he could stub more than one toe in the NBA.
Second up: several of the rest of the best
15. Paul Millsap, Louisiana Tech (6-8, 235, Jr. PF)
Excellent rebounder/defender who can bully his way into an NBA starting lineup. Needs to become a more consistent scorer, especially in the low post.
16. Sergio Rodriquez, Spain (6-3, 180, PG)
A decent player overseas, Sergio has skills, but may have difficulty in initially making the switch to the NBA. Needs to become a better perimeter defender to garner big minutes, but his upside will carry him on draft night.
17. Cedric Simmons, NC State (6-9, 235, So. SF)
This underclassman has not hired an agent and may withdraw, but his game and a few good workouts could keep him in. Defensively sound and an incredible rebounding machine, Simmons played in Herb Sendak’s Princeton offense and may excel once removed from it.
18. Jordan Farmar, UCLA (6-2, 180, So. PG)
Another player testing the draft waters, Farmar may benefit from a PG thin draft. His play indicates that he needs another year of college ball, but that won’t impede an NBA team from letting him know they’ll draft him. A solid ball handler, but raw.
19. Kyle Lowry, Villanova (6-0, 185, So. PG)
Some have suggested all season that Lowry, not Foye was the motor behind the ‘Cats success. So he tests the waters also in hopes of hearing that he’s a lottery level pick. That could happen if a workout goes well enough.
20. Mardy Collins, Temple (6-6, 205, Sr. PG-SG)
Temple players often get their best assets hidden in the Owl system. Collins could be another such player, although most NBA scouts have been on to him for three years. Collins played the point and while he may not in the NBA, the stint in college will certainly help him create his own NBA shots. Terrific from anywhere on the floor and an excellent defender, Collins is a mid-first round bargain pick.
21. Paul Davis, Michigan State (6-11, 240, Sr. PF-C)
Davis is a solid player who generally plays within himself and commits few errors. Some will question his skills down low and others his ability to be a consistent scorer, but his size will carry him to a first round slot.
22. Hilton Armstrong, Connecticut (6-11, 250, Sr. PF-C)
Armstrong has the chance to turn a few good workouts into a move up to lottery contention, but it’s likely that no matter what, he’ll be long gone by the end of round one. He’s an excellent defender, shot-blocker and team leader who can hit from 15 feet out with consistency.
23. Brandon Bowman, Georgetown (6-8, 215, Sr. SF)
Bowman played very well in Portsmouth and impressed with his ability to do the little things that make coaches take notice. He runs the floor, defends his man, and makes few mistakes. A solid contributor who could sneak into this portion of the first round.
24. Leon Powe, California (6-8, 240, So. PF)
A bear of a player who has bulldozer in his game and yet runs the floor quite well. A solid inside operator with some outside skills, Powe will make or break his NBA chances in workouts.
25. Josh Boone, Connecticut (6-11, 235, Jr. PF)
A bigger disappointment each season, Boone has appeared to be in cruise control most of his games and on occasion will indicate that he’s a part of the team with a few good plays. He has the ability to be a lottery selection, but doesn’t appear to want to do the extras required. Still, he could benefit from a change in scenery.
26. Maurice Ager, Michigan State (6-4, 195, Sr. SG)
A decent, quiet player who without very much fanfare puts up solid numbers and helps his team win. A potential steal at this point in the draft, Ager is a quick defender with good range on his jump shot and plays within himself.
27. P.J Tucker, Texas (6-5, 225, Jr. SG)
A wing player at Texas, Tucker may find the going tough in the NBA where bigger defenders may alter his game. He won’t be able to slash much and if forced to rely solely on his perimeter game, Tucker could struggle mightily.
28. Quincy Douby, Rutgers (6-3, 175, Jr. SG)
A player whose draft stock will be determined largely on his workouts, Douby is a skilled but somewhat raw player who has a reputation built on his shooting, but needs to add weight and strength in order to succeed at the NBA level. Another season of college ball would have helped, but Douby believes his time is now.
29. Rudy Fernandez, Spain (6-5, 185, SG)
A player even slighter in frame than Douby, Fernandez has the extra benefit of international play along with a multi-faceted game. A solid perimeter shooter and good defender, he’s the type of player others let get away from them and then find themselves getting burned in games by his play.
30. Guillermo Diaz, Miami (6-3, 190, Jr. PG-SG)
Flashy yet streaky, Diaz has grown into a intriguing pick. A hot and cold player, he’s prone to turning the ball over, but when he gets hot, he can change a game in a minute.
Several other players have the obvious ability to play their way into the first round, or stumble up into it as some players withdraw their names from consideration. Among the better players right on the cusp are:
James Augustine, Illinois (6-10, 235)
Thabo Sefolosha, Switzerland (6-6, 225)
Aaron Gray, Pittsburgh (7-0, 270)
Olexsiy Pecherov, Ukraine (6-11, 230)
Steven Smith, LaSalle (6-7, 225)
Yemi Nicholson, Denver (6-11, 260)
Steve Novak, Marquette (6-10, 210)
Nick Fazekas, Nevada (6-11, 230)
One thing is a draft certainty – the Orlando Pre-Draft Camp will go a large way towards determining where players are starting to fill in on draft boards, and the individual team workouts will finalize team’s player decisions.
