Big 12 Conference 2006-07 Preview
by Neal Heston
Welcome back to the Big 12 Conference, home of new hope for several teams. Despite several noteworthy changes throughout the Big 12, the conference favorite has a decidedly familiar flavor.
Half of the Big 12 went through a makeover during the off-season, as six teams welcome new coaches. Kansas State, which returns four starters from last year’s 15-13 squad, opened its arms to former Cincinnati legend Bob Huggins. Sean Sutton has taken the reins from his father at Oklahoma State. In Cyclone territory, Greg McDermott traveled down the interstate to try to return Iowa State to national prominence. Nebraska hopes Doc Sadler can improve on last season’s late run. And lastly, two embattled programs – Missouri and Oklahoma – hired Mike Anderson and Jeff Caple, respectively, to right the ship.
Four of those new hires may experience difficulty in the 2006-07 campaign because their teams are entering a rebuilding season or must overcome NCAA sanctions. Huggins and Sutton, however, should find themselves near the top of the conference. Who will the Wildcats and Cowboys be chasing? None other than the Kansas Jayhawks, who bring back all five starters. Many experts considered last season’s team talented enough to make a run to the Elite Eight or even the Final Four last March before the Jayhawks’ surprising first-round exit in the NCAA Tournament. Kansas appears to be the lone candidate to hoist the Big 12 trophy this season, and Texas A&M, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas and Texas Tech will battle for the No. 2 spot.
As unbelievable as it might be for college basketball fans to grasp, Baylor looks strong enough to land a postseason berth. Baylor is only a year removed from one of the most severe punishments in NCAA history. Following the David Bliss scandal, the NCAA banned the Bears from playing any non-conference games last season, among other harsh repercussions. But the Bears will be the only Big 12 team projected to finish in the bottom half to taste the excitement of postseason play.
Hoopville’s Big 12 Predictions
1. Kansas (NCAA)
2. Texas A&M (NCAA)
3. Oklahoma State (NCAA)
4. Texas (NCAA)
5. Texas Tech (NCAA)
6. Kansas State (NIT)
7. Baylor (NIT)
8. Oklahoma
9. Iowa State
10. Nebraska
11. Missouri
12. Colorado
Preseason Awards
1st Team All-Big 12
Jarrius Jackson, Texas Tech
Richard Roby, Colorado
Brandon Rush, Kansas
Mario Chalmers, Kansas
Cartier Martin, Kansas State
Player of the Year: Jarrius Jackson, Texas Tech
Coach of the Year: Bill Self, Kansas
Team Capsules
Kansas Jayhawks (2005-06: 25-8, 13-3)
Lost in first round of NCAA Tournament to No. 13 Bradley.
Big non-conference games:
Nov. 25 vs. Florida
Dec. 2 at DePaul
Dec. 23 vs. Boston College
Jan. 7 at South Carolina
Jayhawk fans have had some unexpected free time during the past two NCAA Tournaments after upsets to No. 14-seed Bucknell in 2005 and No. 13-seed Bradley in 2006. Bradley may not have been as huge of a surprise as the Bucknell defeat, but the early exit still sent Kansas fans into madness. After a dismal 3-4 start to the 2005-06 campaign and shocking defeats to Kansas State and Missouri, Kansas rebounded for 15 wins in 16 games before the loss to Bradley. One of the top turnarounds was cut short, and the returning cast wants to make amends this season.
The Jayhawks will be playing well into March this season because of five returning starters – none of whom are seniors – who boasted the top field goal defense last season. In addition, the Jayhawks have two new McDonald’s All-Americans, Darrell Arthur and Sherron Collins. Led by sophomores Brandon Rush, Mario Chalmers and Julian Wright, Kansas returns more than 80 percent of last season’s scoring and rebounding. The pieces are in place for at least a Big 12 title, possibly a national title.
2006-07 Predictions
Big 12: First
NCAA Tournament: Final Four
Texas A&M Aggies (2005-06: 22-9, 10-6)
Lost in second round of NCAA Tournament to No. 4 LSU.
Big non-conference games:
Dec. 2 at Pacific
Dec. 5 at LSU
Dec. 9 vs. UCLA
Dec. 22 at Auburn
Jan. 2 vs. Winthrop
Fans in College Station didn’t know a winning season in basketball was possible until coach Billy Gillispie stepped onto the sideline. The Aggies had been to one postseason since 1990, but Gillispie has taken Texas A&M to the NIT and NCAA Tournament in his first two years. With four returning starters, the Aggies expect to get back to the NCAA Tournament and advance further than last time.
Double-digit scoring threats Acie Law and Joseph Jones lead the way for the Aggies. Josh Carter and Dominique Kirk join Law and Jones in the starting lineup. Those four account for almost 47 points per game, a nice complement to a defense that surrendered only 60 points per game.
If any team can threaten Kansas for the Big 12 regular-season crown, the Aggies are it. Fans will find out how exciting this team will be – or how much work remains – after Texas A&M faces early tests against LSU, UCLA and Auburn.
2006-07 Predictions
Big 12: Second
NCAA Tournament: Sweet 16
Oklahoma State Cowboys (2005-06: 17-16, 6-10)
Lost in first round of NIT to Miami.
Big non-conference games:
Nov. 15 vs. Northwestern State
Nov. 24 vs. Auburn
Nov. 25 vs. Wisconsin or Missouri State
Dec. 5 vs. Syracuse
Dec. 18 at Tennessee
Dec. 21 vs. Pittsburgh
Coach Sean Sutton takes over an Oklahoma State program that is in rather good condition. The Cowboys welcome back all but two of their top scorers from a team last season that lost seven games by one or two points – the difference between an NCAA Tournament bid and the NIT.
Torre Johnson, who averaged 10.1 points per game, was the only departing starter. Some of the key returning players include scoring and rebounding leader Mario Boggan, junior guard JamesOn Curry, sophomore guard Byron Eaton and senior forward David Monds. Those four averaged 44.2 points per game. The 6-10 conference mark from last season will improve greatly. One of the two expected newcomers won’t join the Cowboys. Gary Flowers was cut for violating a team policy. However, first-team Oklahoma all-state player Obi Muonelo will try to help Oklahoma State return to the NCAA Tournament.
Getting to the NCAA Tournament will prove easier than it was last season. But how far can the Cowboys ride? Inexperience could lead to a one-and-done performance.
2006-07 Predictions
Big 12: Third
NCAA Tournament: First-round loss
Texas Longhorns (2005-06: 30-7, 13-3)
Lost in Elite Eight to No. 4 LSU.
Big non-conference games:
Dec. 2 vs. Gonzaga
Dec. 10 vs. LSU
Dec. 20 vs. Arkansas
Dec. 23 at Tennessee
Good-bye P.J. Tucker, LaMarcus Aldridge, Daniel Gibson, Kenton Paulino and Brad Buckman – also known as Texas’ top five scorers last season. With 64 points per game departing, good-bye postseason, right?
Nope. The Longhorns have four reasons to plan for another NCAA Tournament appearance: McDonald’s All-American D.J. Augustin; Kevin Durant, the MVP of the McDonald’s All-American game; Matt Hill, Nebraska’s Mr. Basketball; and Damion James, Texas’ Gatorade Player of the Year.
Texas may not break another school record for wins, but the Longhorns will still be good – NCAA Tournament good. In fact, a second-round tournament exit is a safe prediction, depending on how quickly the newcomers adapt to a competitive Big 12 this winter.
2006-07 Predictions
Big 12: Fourth
NCAA Tournament: Second-round loss
Texas Tech Red Raiders (2005-06: 15-17, 6-10)
Big non-conference games:
Nov. 25 at UTEP
Dec. 3 vs. Stanford
Dec. 16 vs. Arkansas
Dec. 23 vs. Bucknell
Dec. 28 vs. UNLV
Jan. 1 vs. New Mexico
Coach Bob Knight experienced just the second losing season ever in his coaching career last season. But he and the Red Raiders should rebound with a vengeance this season because of the return of four starters. Jarrius Jackson, with his 20.5 points and four rebounds per game, leads the returning cast, which also includes Martin Zeno and Darryl Dora. But Jackson will start the season off the roster after Knight dismissed him for failing to meet academic standards. Knight said Jackson could rejoin the team if he takes care of business.
Until Jackson returns, Zeno and Dora must lead Texas Tech. The non-conference schedule will be more than good enough to prepare Texas Tech for Big 12 play, as Stanford, Arkansas and Bucknell are some of the highlights on the non-conference reel, just to name a few.
Seven newcomers join the Red Raiders’ roster this winter, including Rogdrick Craig, Decensae White and Justin Wilkerson, all of whom scored at least 20 points per game last season. The Red Raiders appear strong enough to make the tourney, but that might be it for this year.
2006-07 Predictions
Big 12: Fifth
NCAA Tournament: First-round loss
Kansas State Wildcats (2005-06: 15-13, 6-10)
Big non-conference matches:
Nov. 21 at New Mexico
Dec. 22 vs. USC
Dec. 23 vs. New Mexico or Wichita State
New Kansas State coach Bob Huggins has made the NCAA Tournament during his last 14 seasons as a coach. It’s been a long time since the Wildcats have qualified for the field. One of those streaks will end this season – most likely the former.
The Wildcats return their top three scorers from last season and the team leader in rebounds, which should help Kansas State reach the NIT if not the NCAA Tournament. Cartier Martin leads the way after averaging 18 points and 6.6 rebounds per game last season. Junior guard David Hoskins and senior guard Lance Harris will join Martin, while big-time wing Bill Walker is set to join the Wildcats a little early – mid-December, in fact, after finishing high school early and getting cleared by the NCAA.
If the Wildcats’ play matches their talent, Huggins shouldn’t struggle too much in getting the Wildcats to that coveted NCAA berth. But Kansas State will need to figure out a way to win close games. The team lost six games by two points or less last season and was 6-9 in games decided by five points or less.
2006-07 Predictions
Big 12: Sixth
Postseason: NIT
Baylor Bears (2005-06: 4-13, 4-12)
Big non-conference matches:
Nov. 15 possible matchup vs. Gonzaga
Dec. 9 vs. South Carolina
Dec. 16 at Syracuse
Baylor has won eight Big 12 games during the past three seasons. For those of us who aren’t math whizzes, that is 2.7 league wins per year. The likelihood of tripling that average this season is good because of the return of four starters who helped the team play competitively down the stretch last season. The Bears went 2-2 in their final four contests and nearly upset Oklahoma State and Colorado in the regular-season finale and conference quarterfinals, respectively. Baylor is strong enough to notch at least eight wins in the Big 12 win column.
Curtis Jerrells and Aaron Bruce lead the returning class of starters at 13.5 and 13.1 points per game, respectively. Senior guard Patrick Fields (8.3 PPG) and Mamadou Diene (5.8 rebounds per game) round out the starting lineup. Incoming freshman Demond Carter – the top-scoring player in U.S. high school history – may have an immediate impact.
2006-07 Predictions
Big 12: Seventh
NIT
Oklahoma Sooners (2005-06: 20-9, 11-5)
Lost in first round of NCAA Tournament to No. 11 Wisconsin – Milwaukee
Big non-conference matches:
Nov. 20 vs. Memphis
Dec. 6 vs. Villanova
Jan. 1 at Alabama
The Sooners’ program wasn’t left in the best situation for former Virginia Commonwealth coach Jeff Caple to take over for Kelvin Sampson, who left Oklahoma for Indiana. A team that has recorded at least 20 wins for nine consecutive seasons will feel fortunate to get there this season. Three of last season’s top four scorers have departed. Newcomer of the Year Michael Neal is the most significant returning starter. The senior guard averaged a little more than 12 points per game last season. With the losses and a more experienced conference, Oklahoma may find itself on the outside of the postseason for the first time in a while.
2006-07 Predictions
Big 12: Eighth
No Postseason
Iowa State Cyclones (2005-06: 16-14, 6-10)
Big non-conference matches:
Nov. 29 at Northern Iowa
Dec. 3 vs. Drake
Dec. 8 at Iowa
Dec. 16 vs. Bradley
Dec. 19 at Ohio State
Last season devolved from high expectations to a train wreck in a hurry for Iowa State. At the beginning of the year, few would have figured that the school would fire coach Wayne Morgan. Many more expected him to contend for Big 12 Coach of the Year. However, a 5-11 finish and an NIT snub doomed the coach, and Iowa State is entering a rebuilding phase.
Patience will be key for Cyclone fans in Ames because Iowa State may experience a tough year or two with new coach Greg McDermott. Although several players left after the coaching change in March, McDermott’s playbook and style might help the Cyclones exceed expectations this season. He and his staff expect a lot right, based on the non-conference slate, which includes games at Minnesota, at Northern Iowa, vs. Drake, at Iowa, vs. Bradley and at Ohio State. For Iowa State to fight for a winning record, the Cyclones need their seven newcomers to quickly adapt to McDermott’s system.
2006-07 Predictions
Big 12: Ninth
No Postseason
Nebraska Cornhuskers (2005-06: 19-14, 7-9)
Lost in first round of NIT to Hofstra
Big non-conference matches:
Nov. 18 vs. Creighton
Coach Doc Sadler has never had a losing record during seven seasons as a head coach, but he inherits a team that loses three starters from last season’s record-setting team, including the top two scorers. Wes Wilkinson, Jason Dourisseau and Joc McCray departed, taking nearly 34 points per game with them from the Nebraska squad that qualified for the Big 12 Tournament semifinals for just the second time in school history. The returnees include leading rebounder Aleks Maric (8.1 RPG) and sophomore guard Jamel White. That likely won’t be enough to ensure another successful campaign in Lincoln.
2006-07 Predictions
Big 12: 10th
No Postseason
Missouri Tigers (2005-06: 12-16, 5-11)
Big non-conference matches:
Nov. 30 vs. Arkansas
Dec. 3 vs. Evansville
Dec. 19 vs. Illinois
Missouri entered last season with great expectations, but the team never meshed. The disappointment started early with a shocking loss to Sam Houston State to open the season. From there, the Tigers struggled to play up to par and then completely crumbled toward the end of the season, losing 11 of the final 13 games.
Former UAB coach Mike Anderson may have the toughest job out of all the new Big 12 hires. He has to whip the program back into shape, a program that lost 11 conference games for the first time since before most of the Missouri players were born. And only two starters return from last season’s underachieving squad. Just more than one-third of the team’s scoring and one-half of its rebounding come back. There will be a little more suffering in Columbia before it gets better.
2006-07 Predictions
Big 12: 11th
No Postseason
Colorado Buffaloes (2005-06: 20-10, 9-7)
Lost in first round of NIT to Old Dominion
Big non-conference matches:
Nov. 18 vs. Air Force
Nov. 21 at Utah
Nov. 29 at UNC-Wilmington
Although one of the league’s top players occupies a spot on Colorado’s roster, the Buffaloes simply lost too many players from last season to expect a repeat of last season’s 20-win NIT squad. Team leading scorer and rebounder Richard Roby (17 PPG and 5.5 RPG) leads the way as one of two returning starters, and the junior guard is one of just five Buffaloes who will slip on the same Colorado jersey in 2006-07.
Colorado waved good-bye to three starters and 12 players overall, and the team welcomes in the largest recruiting class in the Big 12. That combination will doom the Buffaloes to the cellar.
2006-07 Predictions
Big 12: 12th
No Postseason
