Horizon League 2006-07 Preview
The 2006-07 Horizon League season will be unpredictable and unfamiliar. For each of the past seven seasons, Butler or Wisconsin-Milwaukee have claimed the conference title. This year should be different because both teams lost a lot of talent, while the traditional chasers return much of theirs. It feels strange not to pencil in the Bulldogs or the Panthers as league champ. The new debate is which team will snatch the reins.
The Loyola Chicago Ramblers, led by Preseason Player of the Year Blake Schilb, are the heavy favorite. They return almost every contributor from last year’s 19-11 squad. After Loyola, though, the Horizon League is less defined. Wisconsin-Green Bay, Wright State, Detroit and Illinois-Chicago all bring back talent, and it’s hard to bet against the programs at Butler and Wisconsin-Milwaukee. A handful of teams will beat up on one another to determine positioning in the conference tournament, which is nothing new. Last season, five teams finished the conference season with 8-8 records.
Two new coaches will patrol the Horizon League sidelines this season after Brad Brownell left UNC-Wilmington for Wright State and Gary Waters joined Cleveland State after coaching Rutgers. Many of the star players, however, will be familiar. First team all-conference performers Schilb, DaShaun Wood (Wright State) and Quin Humphrey (Youngstown State) return. They are joined on the preseason first team by Brandon Cotton (Detroit) and Ryan Evanochko (Wisconsin-Green Bay).
Whichever star leads his team to the Big Dance figures to represent the Horizon League well. A Horizon school has won an opening round game in six of the last 10 NCAA Tournaments, and two teams have advanced to the Sweet 16. Schilb and Loyola seem poised to make that run this year.
Preseason Awards
1st Team All-Horizon
Senior guard Blake Schilb, Loyola Chicago
Senior guard Quin Humphrey, Youngstown State
Senior guard DaShaun Wood, Wright State
Junior guard Brandon Cotton, Detroit
Senior guard Ryan Evanochko, Wisconsin-Green Bay
2nd Team All-Horizon
Senior guard Majak Kou, Loyola
Sophomore forward Leon Young, Loyola
Junior guard A.J. Graves, Butler
Junior forward Othyus Jeffers, Illinois-Chicago
Sophomore forward J’Nathan Bullock, Cleveland State
Player of the Year: Blake Schilb, Loyola
Newcomer of the Year: Mike Green, Butler
Freshman of the Year: Vaughn Duggins, Wright State
Defensive Player of the Year: DaShaun Wood, Wright State
Coach of the Year: Brad Brownell, Wright State
Most Improved Player: Terry Evans, Wisconsin-Green Bay
Coach on the Hot Seat: Jerry Slocum, Youngstown State
Projected Order of Finish
1. Loyola Ramblers (19-11, 8-8)
Projected Starters:
Sophomore guard J.R. Blount
Senior guard Majak Kou
Senior guard Blake Schilb
Sophomore forward Leon Young
Senior forward Brandon Woods
Key Games:
Nov. 10 vs. Princeton in the BCA Classic
Dec. 5 at Purdue
Dec. 16 vs. Northern Iowa
Feb. 10 at Wisconsin-Green Bay
In just two seasons, coach Jim Whitesell has transformed the Ramblers from a sub-.500 team to the conference favorite. Of course, it helps when you have Blake Schilb, a two-time Horizon first-teamer and the preseason player of the year. Schilb possesses both inside and outside skills, and he is a good rebounder and a terrific passer.
In addition to Schilb, the Ramblers return all but one contributor from last season’s 19-11 squad. Rangy guard Majak Kou, an all-conference and all-defensive performer, averaged more than 1.5 steals and blocks per game. He’ll team with sophomore J.R. Blount to form a formidable backcourt. The Ramblers also return some frontcourt beef, which will be reinforced by freshman Andy Polka.
The only question mark with Loyola is the team’s defense, which was the conference’s worst last season. But all signs point to this squad as the team to beat in the Horizon League. Anything short of 20 wins and an NCAA berth will be a disappointment.
2. Wright State Raiders (13-15, 8-8)
Projected Starters:
Senior guard DaShaun Wood
Sophomore guard William Graham
Freshman guard Vaughn Duggins
Senior forward Drew Burleson
Junior forward Jordan Pleiman
Key Games:
Dec. 2 vs. Detroit
Dec. 27 at LSU in the Hispanic Collage Fund Classic
Dec. 5 at Bradley
Jan. 10 vs. Loyola
Wright State may have the conference’s newcomer of the year, but he won’t take one shot this season. New coach Brad Brownell, who led UNC – Wilmington to two NCAA appearances in four seasons, is onboard to reverse the Raiders’ tradition of underachievement. The talent to do so is there. All-conference guard DaShaun Wood is back for one more year. Last season he ranked in the top five in both scoring and assists and led the Horizon in steals. Returning alongside Wood is a solid stable of big-bodied rebounders and a team dedicated to defense.
The Raiders hope that freshman gunner Vaughn Duggins, one of Brownell’s former UNC-Wilmington recruits, can kick start Wright State’s offense, which ranked last in the league last season. Look for this squad, led by Brownell, to settle in come conference season and make some noise.
3. Wisconsin-Green Bay Phoenix (15-16, 8-8)
Projected Starters:
Senior guard Ryan Evanochko
Sophomore guard Ryan Tillema
Sophomore forward Terry Evans
Senior forward Josh Lawrence
Sophomore forward Mike Schachtner
Key Games:
Nov. 15 at Wisconsin
Dec. 23 at Michigan State
Feb. 10 vs. Loyola
If Wisconsin-Green Bay struggles this season, lack of experience can’t be an excuse. The Phoenix return all five starters, including three who started and gained valuable experience in their freshman campaigns. They also boast a consistent senior scorer and leader, and they certainly should improve on last season’s 15-16 mark. That senior leader is guard Ryan Evanochko, who ranked second in the league in assists to go along with his scoring ability. The sophomore quartet of Ryan Tillema, Terry Evans, Mike Schachtner and Cordero Barkley provide a solid balance of inside scoring, three-point shooting and athleticism.
The biggest concern for coach Tod Kowalczyk’s group is rebounding, an area in which they struggled last season. They will be tested early in the season with visits to Wisconsin and Michigan State, but the Phoenix catches a break by not having to travel to Chicago to face conference favorite Loyola. The Phoenix could challenge for a conference title if they can take care of Loyola at home.
4. Illinois-Chicago Flames (16-15, 8-8)
Projected Starters:
Sophomore guard Josh Mayo
Junior guard Othyus Jeffers
Senior forward Jovan Stefanov
Senior forward Danijel Zoric
Sophomore center Scott VanderMeer
Key Games:
Nov. 19 vs. Bradley in the Chicago Challenge
Dec. 19 at Mississippi
Feb. 24 at Loyola
Trend alert: Illinois-Chicago, another 8-8 conference squad from last season, returns four starters and figures to improve on that record this winter. However, the three teams predicted to finish ahead of the Flames didn’t lose Justin Bowen, an all-conference member. His loss leaves them without a dependable scorer, although there are several viable options. Guard Josh Mayo and wingman Othyus Jeffers were among the league’s best newcomers last season. It’s their responsibility to step up and replace Bowen.
One advantage that Illinois-Chicago has that most Horizon League teams generally lack is size. With three starters who are 6-9 or taller, the Flames could force an uncomfortable style and present awkward match ups for many league rivals. Their success may depend on their ability to control the tempo through their size.
5. Detroit Titans (16-16, 8-8)
Projected Starters:
Junior guard Jon Goode
Senior guard Brandon Cotton
Freshman guard Eulis Stephens
Sophomore forward Chris Hayes
Senior center Ryvon Covile
Key Games:
Dec. 5 at Xavier
Dec. 28 at Kansas
Jan. 2 at Wisconsin-Green Bay
Feb. 24 at Butler
The 2006-07 Detroit backcourt may be the strongest in coach Perry Watson’s 13 years at the school. Brandon Cotton, a one-time Michigan State freshman, ranked fifth in the conference in scoring last season, despite playing most of the season with pins in his hand. Jon Goode, the Titans’ best three-point shooter, also returns to the starting five. Perimeter play will not be an issue.
But size will be. Detroit sports an inexperienced and rather small frontcourt, but the Titans will welcome back center Ryvon Covile, who missed last season with a knee injury. If the guards play to their potential and offset the frontcourt deficiencies, Detroit could land in the top third of the league.
6. Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers (22-9, 12-4)
Projected Starters:
Freshman guard Roman Gentry
Sophomore guard Ricky Franklin
Freshman guard Charlie Swiggett
Junior forward Paige Paulsen
Junior forward Sam Mauldin
Key Games:
Nov. 15 at Michigan
Nov. 19 vs. Northern Iowa
Dec. 13 at Wisconsin
Jan. 6 at Loyola Chicago
Feb. 24 at Wisconsin-Green Bay
In his first year, coach Rob Jeter took the Panthers to the second round of the NCAA Tournament, where they lost to eventual champion Florida. In his second year, some think leading them to the second round of the Horizon League tournament could be difficult. Seven contributors, including all five starters and three all-conference players, are gone. In fact, only 15 percent of the team’s scoring returns. It’s a bleak situation, but transfers Paige Paulsen (Northern Illinois) and Sam Mauldin (Birmingham Southern) could ease the transition. Look for a slow start in which Jeter might have to remind his players that Joah Tucker, Boo Davis and Adrian Tigert will not walk through that locker room door.
7. Butler Bulldogs (20-13, 11-5)
Projected Starters:
Junior guard A.J. Graves
Senior guard Julian Betko
Junior guard Mike Green
Senior forward Brandon Crone
Senior forward Brian Ligon
Key Games:
Nov. 13 vs. Notre Dame in the NIT Season Tip-Off
Dec. 16 at Purdue
Dec. 30 at Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Butler is the most unpredictable team in the Horizon League. On one hand, they lose Brandon Polk, last season’s conference player of the year, along with starters Avery Sheets and Bruce Horan. On the other hand, the Bulldogs have consistently been at or near the top of the Horizon League during coach Todd Lickliter’s five campaigns. Much of the burden falls on junior guard A.J. Graves and Towson transfer Mike Green. Butler’s teams usually play smart and are always well-coached, evidenced by their miniscule 8.8 turnovers per game and stingy 60.4 points allowed per game last year. Those numbers, if they stay low, give Butler a chance in every game. But will they have enough offense? That’s nearly impossible to predict. In a league that should be much more balanced from top to bottom, it’s hard to see Butler in the top half.
8. Youngstown State Penguins (7-21, 4-12)
Projected Starters:
Junior guard Byron Davis
Senior guard Quin Humphrey
Senior guard Keston Roberts
Junior forward John Barber
Junior forward Colin LaForme
Key Games:
Nov. 22 at Michigan
Nov. 24 at Ohio State
Dec. 30 vs. Loyola
Feb. 24 at Cleveland State
Quin Humphrey isn’t likely to get Youngstown State out of the Horizon League basement on his own, but he’ll do his best. Last season, he became the second Horizon player to lead the conference in scoring and rebounding, but the Penguins still finished 7-21. Although that record should improve this year with the addition of New Mexico State transfer Byron Davis, it won’t be good enough to do damage in league play. Guard Keston Roberts is a nice player, but Youngstown State has no depth and will often be stretched thin in the frontcourt. And let’s not forget their defensive liabilities: they ranked last in the league in scoring defense. Ten or 11 wins seems about right.
9. Cleveland State Vikings (10-18, 5-11)
Projected Starters:
Senior guard Carlos English
Senior guard Raheen Moss
Senior guard Victor Morris
Sophomore forward J’Nathan Bullock
Senior forward Patrick Tatham
Key Games:
Dec. 5 at Kansas State
Dec. 9 at Ohio State
Dec. 17 at Central Michigan
Ten-year coaching vet Gary Waters has the glamourless task of turning around a struggling Cleveland State program. Waters has taken Kent State and Rutgers to postseason play, and the Vikings hope he will bring stability to a team that returns four starters. Forward J’Nathan Bullock, one of the four, had a solid freshman season and is the most talented player on their roster. They will start four seniors, but only one, guard Raheen Moss, averaged in double figures last season. Freshman guard Joe Davis and forward Triston Crawford, who sat out last season with eligibility issues, will be welcomed, but they won’t be enough to change Cleveland State’s fortunes. They’ll be looking up all year.
Summary
The Horizon League will be one of the most hotly contested mid-major conferences in the land this season. Each one of the top seven teams has the talent to play like league champions, and it will be a test of endurance to win the league. Many of the stars are back, a few new transfers and freshmen should contribute, and two new coaches bring new styles to the conference. As Wisconsin-Milwaukee and Butler fall from their permanent perches atop the standings, opportunities abound for hungry, less-familiar schools to claim a conference title and NCAA berth. Wisconsin-Green Bay has waited for 10 years for a chance to dance again, Wright State hasn’t made the trip in 13 seasons, and Loyola’s drought dates back to 1985. Each one enters this season thinking it could end its suffering. That hope, combined with the star power of the league and the prideful traditions of Detroit, Wisconsin-Milwaukee and Butler, provides juicy storylines and surefire excitement in one of the most underrated leagues in the country.
