NCAA Tournament Crystal Ball
by Dan Hauptman and Michael Protos
Jan. 25, 2008
T minus 51 days. 341 Division I schools will be playing thousands of games during the next two months, trying to earn one of the highly coveted 65 spots in the NCAA Tournament. Dan Hauptman and Michael Protos will be here at Hoopville to gaze into their Crystal Basketballs and count down with you, the college basketball nation, until the Big Dance invitations are officially announced during the 2008 Selection Show.
Conference season is underway, all but two of the D-I teams have lost at least one game, and the freshman class is living up to its enormous hype all across America. Following a college football campaign that was wilder and wackier than any season in many years, college basketball has a high standard to attain. The expectations are grand, as is the pressure on the top teams come tournament time. Hauptman and Protos looked deeply into their Crystal Basketballs and saw a major discrepancy at the top, disagreeing on the No. 1 seeds.
Although they concur that Memphis and Kansas are No. 1 and No. 1(a) at the top, they differ on the next two. Hauptman prefers North Carolina and Tennessee, while Protos puts Duke with the Tar Heels. North Carolina has a stronger RPI and strength of schedule than Duke, but Protos gives the Blue Devils a higher spot among the four No. 1 seeds because the loss to Pittsburgh on a neutral court is less damaging than the Tar Heels’ home loss to Maryland.
Meanwhile, Hauptman respects the Volunteers’ outstanding computer numbers. Tennessee is No. 1 in RPI, No. 3 in strength of schedule and No. 13 in non-conference strength of schedule. The Volunteers have racked up four wins against the RPI’s top 25 and six against the top 50. Despite those impressive statistics, Protos can’t put a two-loss team ahead of North Carolina or Duke, which also have solid computer numbers, at the moment.
But that’s the only gift Protos extends to the ACC. Hauptman is far kinder to the conference in total number of bids, giving the top ranked conference, according to the RPI, six total bids compared to Protos’ three. Miami, Boston College and Georgia Tech all would be dancing if Hauptman picked the field today. Protos denies all of them, though Boston College is on his list of the last four out.
Without further ado, here’s the complete field as Hauptman and Protos view it.
| Hauptman’s Hoops Horoscope | Protos’ Prognostications |
|---|---|
 Memphis Kansas North Carolina Tennessee |
Memphis Kansas Duke North Carolina |
 UCLA Georgetown Duke Michigan State |
Tennessee UCLA Texas Michigan State |
 Pittsburgh Washington State Texas Wisconsin |
Georgetown Pittsburgh Xavier Vanderbilt |
 Vanderbilt Clemson Indiana Stanford |
Indiana Wisconsin Washington State St. Mary’s |
 Xavier Villanova St. Mary’s Marquette |
Drake Arizona Butler Mississippi |
 Kansas State Drake Arizona Baylor |
Marquette Dayton Clemson Stanford |
 Butler Mississippi Dayton West Virginia |
Kansas State Ohio State Baylor Oregon |
 Texas A&M Ohio State Boston College Arizona State |
West Virginia Rhode Island Villanova Gonzaga |
 Illinois State Louisville Gonzaga Florida |
USC Louisville Oklahoma Massachusetts |
 Miami Arkansas USC Georgia Tech |
Texas A&M Notre Dame Purdue Creighton |
 Oklahoma Providence Rhode Island Creighton |
South Alabama Connecticut VCU Charlotte |
 Oregon Ohio UNLV Davidson |
Arizona State Kent State Arkansas George Mason |
 George Mason South Alabama Cal State Northridge Utah State |
Davidson Utah State San Diego State Oral Roberts |
 Oral Roberts UNC Asheville Lafayette Stephen F. Austin |
UNC Asheville Cal State Northridge Siena Sam Houston State |
 Marist Hampton Northern Arizona Austin Peay |
Northern Arizona Cornell Hampton Austin Peay |
 Maryland Baltimore Co. Brown Wagner Jacksonville Alabama State |
Maryland Baltimore Co. Jacksonville Wagner Lafayette Alabama State |
 Last 4 In:Providence Rhode Island Creighton Oregon |
Last 4 In: Connecticut George Mason Arizona State Arkansas |
| Last 4 Out: Massachusetts Maryland Purdue Missouri |
Last 4 Out: Syracuse Florida State Boston College Seton Hall |
| Shooting Stars: Wisconsin Arizona Baylor Drake |
Shooting Stars: Drake Memphis Kansas State Wisconsin |
| Sinking Ships: Texas A&M Miami Dayton Marquette |
Sinking Ships: Texas A&M Miami Villanova North Carolina State |
| Conference Breakdown: Big East: 7 Pac-10: 7 ACC: 6 Big 12: 6 SEC: 5 Big Ten: 4 Atlantic 10: 3 Missouri Valley: 3 West Coast: 2 22 one-bid conferences |
Conference Breakdown: Big East: 8 Pac-10: 7 Big 12: 6 Atlantic 10: 5 SEC: 5 Big Ten: 4 ACC: 3 Colonial: 2 Missouri Valley: 2 West Coast: 2 21 one-bid conferences |
Whose field looks more accurate to you? Or are both Hauptman and Protos off target? E-mail us your comments on the Crystal Basketball or give us your own NCAA Tournament prognostications. Then check back throughout the next two months, as Hauptman’s and Protos’ visions for the Big Dance become clearer as the days until Selection Sunday count down. The calendar reads January. This journey just began.
>
