SEATTLE – Every publication except the USA Today seems to have picked Cleveland State as the class of the Horizon (though invariably preseason predictions fail to take into sufficient account the impacts of freshmen and transfers). That said, with Butler’s opening win over Drake, Loyola’s first weekend win over Georgia, Milwaukee’s comeback against UC-Davis and near-comeback at Iowa State (the latter without freshman Tony Meier), and Wright State and Valpo looming, perhaps the pundits handed this conference to CSU a tiny bit prematurely. And now with CSU through two games, a 3-point comeback home win against an Oakland team without its best player on Saturday, and a thrashing tonight by the Washington Huskies in Seattle, well, the regular season winner of this improving conference is anything but assured.
Now in two straight games, CSU has shot brutally from the perimeter, 35% against Oakland (16% from deep) and 31% at Washington, and been outrebounded (by 4 against Oakland, and by a monstrous 60-34 margin against Washington). That raises questions in two key areas, and suggests that unless they rebound better CSU may not be able to do nearly as much business in transition as one might have guessed.
Already playing the opposite style from a number of league stalwarts (offense generated from their defense, pressure, speed and transition), CSU’s rivals may now have a road map for containing that transition/penetration game, one that includes packing in their halfcourt defense to make CSU beat them from deep. So unless CSU can obtain something from the outside from stars Cedric Jackson (a combined 8-30, and 0-9 from three, in two games) and J’Nathan Bullock (7-27 and 1-4), or can get scoring from the perimeter from other sources, and at least protect their defensive board, they may not be able to run away and hide from many of their conference foes. That eventuality will make this season in the Horizon all the more competitive, and all the more exciting.
Looking a bit more closely at CSU, while Bullock and Jackson achieved some success from outside last season (32% and 39%, respectively, from the arc), both their two-game stats behind this year’s deeper arc and a look at both players’ shooting form suggest that a prediction of 30% in threes for either this year would be optimistic. Though hardly a pure shooter, the best shooter in Coach Waters’ starting lineup is sophomore guard Norris Cole, who one could call either streaky or a “volume shooter”; in the first two contests Cole is shooting a combined 14-33, and 3-11 from the arc. And while athletic third guard D’Aundray Brown, never before viewed as a perimeter threat, appears to be developing a bit of a mid-range game (9-13 in the first two games, and both more and better shooting in practice), D’Aundray is hardly ready to step back behind the arc.
The purest shooter on the team is sophomore Eric Schiele from suburban Akron, whose 40 point average led America’s prep players two years ago, and who shot 34% from the arc that season. Schiele’s two treys late in the first half in Seattle kept Washington’s halftime lead below 30, and his 2-6 in two games from behind the arc should improve when the sample grows. The only problem: at 5-9 Schiele is way too small to play second guard, doesn’t have point guard skills, and isn’t athletic enough to play defense the way Waters wants it played. That leaves CSU’s best shooter a part-time performer.
The second best shooter on the current roster is true freshman Josh McCoy, a 6-4 guard from suburban St. Louis. McCoy averaged 19 points his senior year at Fort Zumwalt South High, and shot 41% from the arc. And while less athletic than CSU’s three starting guards, McCoy could make up for that with size, smarts and toughness, and Coach used him for 14 and then 8 minutes in the first two games. As is the case for Schiele, McCoy will likely better his current 1-5 from the arc when the sample grows, and for McCoy, that sample could grow quickly.
And then there is 6-0 freshman guard Trevon Harmon from Pasadena, who won’t be eligible until the tenth game of the season, December 13th at Marist. With the skills to back up both Cedric Jackson at the point and Norris Cole at second guard, when he becomes eligible Trey could be the one Cleveland State player who combines the athleticism necessary play defense for Coach Waters with the ability to shoot from the perimeter.
Already Harmon has shown in practice a high platform, consistently good form and release, lots of range, and a desire to shoot as the clock winds down. While Trey will miss early December home conference games against Valparaiso and Butler, he will have five games under his belt before the conference season resumes with a game at Wright State on December 30. An infusion of shooting (as well as Harmon’s ball-handling skills and athleticism) could be just the shot in the arm CSU needs in the suddenly wide open battle for the top spot in the Horizon League.
Horizon News and Notes:
- After an opening win against sub-Division I Marian, youthful Valparaiso is now 2-0, easily defeating Central Florida tonight at home 69-52. Power forward and strong rebounder Urule Igbavboa-who started this night along with four guards-led the way with 15 points (on 5-12 shooting) and 14 rebounds, Michael Rogers had 10 points (4-13) and 11 rebounds, and diminutive freshman point guard Erik Buggs contributed 11 points (3-7) and 4 assists.
- Horizon teams’ major conference opponents this coming weekend will be Kansas State (playing at Cleveland State in a game honoring legendary coach John McClendon), DePaul (at Illinois-Chicago), and Marquette (hosting Milwaukee). And if Valpo can beat San Diego on Friday afternoon in St. Thomas, they will likely face Wisconsin on Saturday.
