March shows its first signs of Madness tonight when the Horizon League and Big South Conference start their conferences.
We’re about to dive head-first into Championship Week, which marks the final approach of Selection Sunday and the NCAA Tournament. For a couple hundred programs, this is their last chance to earn an NCAA Tournament bid.
And for a hard-core group of sports writers across the country, Championship Week has evolved into a friendly competition known as the Jerome. It started with the New York Times’ Pete Thamel and a couple of his Syracuse cohorts, and it has evolved into a much-anticipated event. Just search #Jerome on Twitter to see what I mean.
Hoopville isn’t quite at Jerome fame yet, so we’ll share our outlook for the conference tournaments without the pressure of competing for first place.
ACC: Duke — Who else do you think we’d pick? The Blue Devils are going for their 10th ACC championship in 14 seasons.
America East: Boston University — The Terriers are riding an eight-game winning streak into the post-season, including a solid 66-64 overtime win against regular-season winner Vermont Sunday.
Atlantic 10: Richmond — The Spiders launch a ton of three-pointers, which should help the team get past Temple and Xavier.
Atlantic Sun: Belmont — The Bruins from Nashville might be better than the Bruins from Los Angeles, and they’re certainly plenty better than the rest of the upset-minded Atlantic Sun Conference.
Big 12: Texas — Kansas and Kansas State will likely meet in a battle royale in the semifinals, opening the door for Texas to take out the weakened winner in the final games of Selection Sunday weekend.
Big East: Louisville — The Cardinals haven’t won more than three games in a row since December, but they only need to match that feat in the Big East Tournament after claiming one of the double byes. Look for Rick Pitino and the Cardinals to find a way past host St. John’s in a thrilling final.
Big Sky: Weber State — The Wildcats have won eight of nine games and have one of the best offenses in the Big Sky.
Big South: UNC Asheville — Coastal Carolina and Liberty are imploding late in the season, opening the door for the Bulldogs, who are the most balanced team near the top.
Big Ten: Ohio State — Yes, the tourney is in Indianapolis. But it’s not West Lafayette. And away from home, Purdue has cracked the 65-point mark only three times. Ohio State has put up 65 points or more in road games all but three times. Advantage Buckeyes, again.
Big West: Long Beach State — The 49ers have a balance of good offense and good defense that will make them tough to beat, especially playing in nearby Anaheim.
Conference USA: UTEP — The Miners have lost only two games at home this season and only one in conference play. As hosts of the tournament, UTEP figures to protect home court to earn the automatic bid.
CAA: Old Dominion — The Monarchs’ defense should shut down all comers, including George Mason, which Old Dominion beat by four at home. The game in Richmond should attract nearly an equal number of Monarch and Patriot fans.
Horizon: Butler — The Bulldogs are battle tested and need to win the automatic bid to feel secure in their chances of returning to the Big Dance.
Metro Atlantic: Fairfield — Iona poses a serious threat, and each team won at home. The Stags should be able to hold in Bridgeport to reach the NCAA Tournament.
MAC: Akron — No one in the MAC looks like a safe pick, but the Zips have won seven straight and beat Kent State at home 65-62 earlier in the season.
MEAC: Morgan State — Don’t bet against this team and its seven players who have played for Morgan State’s 2009 and 2010 NCAA Tournament squads.
Missouri Valley: Wichita State — The Shockers lost to Missouri State by a combined eight points in two attempts during the regular season. They could end up on the plus side of the scoring margin en route to an NCAA Tournament bid.
Mountain West: BYU — The Cougars know what they need to get a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament: keep winning. Avoiding UNLV until at least the championship game in Vegas will help, too.
NEC: Long Island — Nobody in the NEC is on the Blackbirds’ offensive level. Plus they play at a breakneck speed that will exhaust opponents.
OVC: Morehead State — Kenneth Faried wants a final crack at the NCAA Tournament, even if the Eagles go in as a No. 16 again.
Pac-10: Washington — The Huskies are apparently right where they want to be: losers of two out of three games heading into the final stretch. Last season, Washington turned it around and caught fire, winning every game in March until losing to West Virginia in the Sweet 16.
Patriot: Bucknell — Only American poses a serious threat, and the Bison don’t figure to let the Eagles slip by with an upset.
SEC: Georgia — This might seem like a crap shoot, but the brackets could easily have Florida and Kentucky paired in the semifinals, not championship game. And Georgia has been tough at home in Athens. Atlanta should give the Bulldogs a nice, albeit less pronounced, home court advantage.
Southern: Charleston — No team in the SoCon plays great defense, but the Cougars do play great offense. And they have the most dynamic player in Andrew Goudelock, who is capable of putting up a Stephen Curry-like performance this March.
Southland: Stephen F. Austin — The Southland Conference is littered with mediocre teams, and Stephen F. Austin is the closest one in the bunch to owning an NCAA Tournament-worthy defense.
Summit: Oakland — The Grizzlies’ offense will take the team to the promised land. But their grizzly defense won’t keep them around for long.
Sun Belt: Denver –This might be the strangest pick of all because the Pioneers are 13-16. However, they play the slowest pace in basketball, which nearly guarantees Denver of keeping tournament games tight. And the Pioneers already have a 27-point win this season against regular-season champ Florida Atlantic.
SWAC: Mississippi Valley State — The Delta Devils are the opposite of the Pioneers with the No. 11 fastest pace in the country. And Mississippi Valley State plays enough defense to cash in on that advantage.
WAC: Utah State — The Bulldogs are in a different class than the rest of the WAC, which should land them with a ticket to the Big Dance.
West Coast: Gonzaga — The Bulldogs served notice last week that Saint Mary’s has officially lost its grasp on this conference. Like Butler in the Horizon League, the battle tested team should prevail.
