2017-18 MVC Post-Mortem

For almost the entirety of its 111-year history, few conferences have rolled with the punches of membership changes better than the Missouri Valley Conference. Many were surprised when the MVC did so yet again in 2017-18. They probably shouldn’t have been.

The announced departure of Wichita State for the American Athletic Conference in April 2017 left many seeing the Valley in perilous shape. Coupled with the exit of Creighton five years earlier, the Shockers’ move was painted for the MVC in various stories in dark terms, some even opining that the Summit and Horizon leagues had passed the Valley up.

Thoroughly underrated was how the MVC has smoothly navigated ebbs and flows for many, many years. The MVC didn’t get to be the second-oldest conference in NCAA Division I by accident. Shoot, this is a league that saw six of its members depart in 1928 to form the Big Six Conference, essentially the roots of the current Big 12, and also lost Cincinnati, Louisville and Memphis State (now Memphis) in the 1970s.

The Valley has been led the last 30 years by the steady hand of Doug Elgin, the longest-termed commissioner in Division I. Elgin has consistently led a diverse group of schools with an approach that is equal parts measured and forward-thinking. He also regularly has said that the league was not defined solely by one institution, and he was proven right again after Wichita State moved on.

Without the Shockers, the MVC was actually considerably better in its signature sport. Nine of its 10 teams finished with at least 15 wins. Out of conference, Valley teams defeated the likes of Florida, Indiana, Mississippi, North Carolina State, South Dakota State, SMU, Tulsa, UNLV, Western Kentucky and 2017 Final Four participant South Carolina. The league was a very healthy eighth in the conference RPI, its best mark since 2013 and not far from its all-time high of sixth in 2006 and 2007.

The Valley’s strength was obscured somewhat, the league bedeviled to an extent by just how remarkably equal its teams were. While every team won at least 13 games, just three won as many as 20, and all ten except one also lost 13. Teams 2-through-10 in the league standings were separated by five games. The difference between third and ninth was three games.

Tough as the league was, there were no standouts, save for one-and it was one of the Valley’s most recent additions. While newcomer Valparaiso was competitive but oft came up short in finishing in the basement in its first MVC season, fifth-year member Loyola Chicago filled the vacuum of dominance left by Wichita State, rolling to the regular season title by four games over the field.

Loyola continued to prove to be an astute addition by the Valley (even finishing with an RPI better than the excellent Creighton program it replaced for the second time in five years). The Ramblers went 24-5 in the regular season, then rolled through the MVC Tournament, too, to clinch a bid to the NCAA Tournament, the program’s first in 33 years.

While there, Loyola then went on a magnificent run, and also gave a better view of just how good the MVC as a whole was. The Ramblers defeated Miami (Fla.), Tennessee and Nevada by a combined four points, then drilled one-time Valley member Kansas State (1913-28) to qualify for the Final Four. It marked the second time in six years that the MVC had put a team in the national semifinals, and the end of the ride with a late fade against Michigan in San Antonio did nothing to diminish an incredible season for Loyola, and a prosperous one for the Valley.

Final Standings:

Conference Tournament
The MVC was a tightly packed bundle the entire season, so it was little surprise that the 42nd MVC Tournament and the 27th edition of Arch Madness in St. Louis featured many close games too. For the second time in three years, eight of the nine games were decided by 10 points or less, and the tourney provided gripping theatre throughout.

With so little difference between the second-best team in the league and the 10th-best, even the first round games featured capable teams. Sure enough, both seventh-seeded Missouri State and No. 8 Northern Iowa proved very dangerous in their quarterfinal games against the top two seeds after UNI knocked out No. 9 Evansville 60-50 and the Bears held off 10 seed Valparaiso 83-79. Northern Iowa gave top seed Loyola all it could handle in the first quarterfinal, leading well into the second half before the Ramblers made enough plays late for a tense 54-50 win. Later, No. 2 Southern Illinois and Missouri State went down to the final minute, but the Bears turned it over with 12 seconds left while down two, and the Salukis prevailed 67-63.

The 4-vs.-5 game in the quarterfinals also was excellent, with No. 5 Bradley rallying late to top Drake 63-61 as Donte Thomas scored a putback winner with just over a second left. The last quarterfinal saw 3 seed Illinois State take care of No. 6 Indiana State 77-70, holding on after the Sycamores had a chance to tie in the final seconds.

Semifinal Saturday included four teams from the state of Illinois for the first time in league history. Loyola held off upstart Bradley 62-54, leading by just two with 90 seconds to play but holding the Braves scoreless the final 4:46. Then, Illinois State outlasted Southern Illinois 76-68 in overtime in a fantastic second semi, with Phil Fayne tallying a career-best 26 points.

The only game of the tourney that didn’t go down to the final minutes was the last one. Loyola received 18 points from Donte Ingram and never trailed in a 65-49 win over Illinois State. The Ramblers pulled away early in the second half and the Redbirds shot just 31.8%.

Postseason Awards
Larry Bird Player of the Year: Clayton Custer, G, Jr., Loyola
Defensive Player of the Year: Ben Richardson, G, Sr., Loyola
Freshman of the Year: Cameron Krutwig, C, Loyola
Newcomer of the Year: Milik Yarbrough, F, Jr., Illinois State
Sixth Man of the Year: Tyler Smithpeters, G, Sr., Southern Illinois
Coach of the Year: Porter Moser, Loyola

All-Conference Team
Clayton Custer, G, Jr., Loyola
Alize Johnson, F, Sr., Missouri State
Ryan Taylor, G, Jr., Evansville
Reed Timmer, G, Sr., Drake
Milik Yarbrough, F, Jr., Illinois State

Season Highlights

• Loyola won its first MVC regular season and tournament titles, qualified for the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1985, and advanced all the way to the Final Four, giving the Valley its second national semifinalist in the last six years.
• Drake played in the CollegeInsider.com Tournament, defeating Abilene Christian before losing to eventual champion Northern Colorado in the second round.
• The Valley finished eighth in the conference RPI, its highest finish since 2013.
• Loyola finished third in NCAA Division I in field goal percentage, shooting 50.7% from the field. Northern Iowa also ranked fourth in the country in scoring defense, allowing just 62.2 ppg. Individually, Indiana State’s Jordan Barnes was third nationally in three-pointers made per game (3.77) while Missouri State’s Alize Johnson was fifth in the nation in rebounding (11.6 rpg).
• Drake guard Reed Timmer and Southern Illinois guard Marcus Bartley both were named third team CoSIDA Academic All-America selections. The MVC joined the Big East as the only two conferences with two Academic All-Americans.

What we expected, and it happened: We felt strongly that the MVC was strong enough to survive the loss of Wichita State, so long as an internal candidate or two (or more) stepped up their games. Also, we tabbed Bradley as a team on the rise, and the Braves showed as much with a young team continuing to grow and winning 20 games.

What we expected, and it didn’t happen: Missouri State was thought to be the league favorite but was a major disappointment. While expectations may have been a tad outsized based solely on returning experience compared to other Valley teams, the Bears still showed out of conference with wins over South Dakota State and at Western Kentucky to be capable of a lot more than they showed in league play.

What we didn’t expect, and it happened: We knew Loyola had potential to be significantly improved after losing a lot of close games the year before, but no one expected a smash hit success like the Ramblers produced. Also, we pegged Southern Illinois as looking like a mid-pack team, but the Salukis finished a solid second even while being plagued by a rash of injuries.

Teams on the rise: Bradley, Illinois State. The Braves have continued their gradual progression under Brian Wardle, and the goal next year should be contending for a top-three finish and at least an NIT bid. Their rivals from just down I-74 should return the vast majority of a Redbirds team that took its lumps but still had its moments this year, and Keyshawn Evans, Phil Fayne and Milik Yarbrough form a scary trio.

Team on the decline: Drake. The Bulldogs had a rewarding first year under Niko Medved, going from the basement to a tie for third. Medved jumped ship after just that one year, though, moving to Colorado State, but the even bigger concern is that four senior starters and six of the top seven scorers overall are gone. It must be noted that Darian DeVries already is appearing to be a prudent hire based on the Bulldogs’ offseason recruiting success.

2018-19 MVC Outlook
As coach Porter Moser noted, Loyola will never be the same after its stunning Final Four run. Where it goes next will be fascinating to watch. Whether Loyola can match that success, what doors open up in areas like recruiting or scheduling, does the run result in an exploding fan base-all are among many things to keep an eye on. The Ramblers also will suddenly be a happening any time they go on the road. Truly, the program will not have faced an upcoming year like this since after it won the 1963 national championship.

It is certainly conceivable that Loyola is here to stay, in the MVC and nationally. While it loses valuable seniors Ingram, Richardson and Aundre Jackson, the team still brings back what should be two of the league’s very best players with the MVC Player of the Year (Custer) and an ultra-skilled big man (Krutwig), plus a third starter in Townes and a reserve in Lucas Williamson who should be fully ready for a bigger role.

Besides Loyola, the question is if any others can rise up to give the league two or three (or more) NCAA at-large caliber teams. Illinois State will return just about everyone and may well even be a chic pick to win the league. The Redbirds do have a dynamite trio; they’ll need more depth and a lot less turnovers next year to progress. Southern Illinois also should have most back from a team that weathered a ridiculous number of injuries and surprised playing a small-but-versatile lineup. Bradley also brings back almost everyone, though the one departed senior (Donte Thomas) is a significant loss, and the Braves are still looking for consistent firepower after Darrell Brown.

There are a lot more questions after those four Illinois schools. Valparaiso might be poised to make a jump. The Crusaders’ record says they were overwhelmed by the upgrade to the MVC, but Valpo lost 11 games by nine points or less while also fielding a roster dominated by freshmen and sophomores.

Northern Iowa is a significant wild card. The Panthers might be at a crossroads after two consecutive disappointing seasons and now losing three starters. Coach Ben Jacobson has never had three straight seasons without at least an NIT appearance, though. Add Indiana State and Missouri State in that boat, too. Barnes is one of the Valley’s most explosive guards, but he’ll need help from a young group around him. And while they have a new coach and lose star Alize Johnson, a good nucleus led by Obediah Church and Jarred Dixon and a fresh start under Dana Ford could be enough to make the Bears a surprise.

This is definitely a time for the Valley to strike while the irons are hot. Loyola’s postseason success has reminded many just how good this league is, and the depth at the bottom of the league is regularly far better than most understand. There’s no reason why at least two NCAA bids-and maybe more-shouldn’t be a reasonable goal for the MVC next year.

Twitter: @HoopvilleAdam